Coronavirus

COVID-19 Herd Immunity Is Possible Before Spring If the FDA Gets Out of the Way

The government must move quickly to approve a one-dose regimen for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.

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Twenty million Americans will not be vaccinated by the end of this year as promised by the federal government. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just over 2.1 million Americans have received the first dose COVID-19 vaccines and nearly 11.5 million doses have been distributed. That number is tens of millions fewer vaccinated people than is needed to reach the herd immunity threshold that would effectively stop the pandemic.

Herd immunity is the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results if a sufficiently high proportion of a population is immune to the illness. Some people are still susceptible, but they are surrounded by immune individuals who serve as a barrier, preventing the microbes from reaching them. Epidemiologists typically estimate that the COVID-19 threshold for herd immunity is around 60 to 70 percent.

Independent data scientist Youyang Gu over at the COVID-19 Projections website takes a heavily caveated but informative stab at calculating when the U.S. might achieve herd immunity to the coronavirus in the next year. The upshot: "We estimate COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021)." Achieving that goal means that approximately 200 million Americans will be immune to the virus by summer. Let's take a look at how Gu and his colleagues navigate the pathway to COVID-19 herd immunity in the U.S.

Interestingly, Gu estimates that roughly half of herd immunity will be achieved through natural infection, that is, he calculates that around 105 million Americans will have been infected before the end of 2021, most of them by April. That's up from an estimated 66 million infected as of mid-December. As a result of the additional infections, the final death toll from the disease will rise to around 500,000 people. For context, diagnosed cases are just over 19 million with 332,000 deaths so far.

Unfortunately Gu expects that the U.S. vaccine campaign's slow start will result in only 2 percent of Americans gaining full two-dose vaccine immunity by the end of January. Less pessimistically, he estimates that 25 million Americans will have gotten at least the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of January. One of Gu's big caveats is that he only counts the immunity that was acquired first (e.g., if an individual has both immunity from natural infection and immunity from vaccination, Gu only counts the immunity from infection). Basically, lot of people who have become immune due to having been previously infected (many asymptomatic) will also end up being vaccinated.

As more Americans get vaccinated, Gu projects that the rate of daily COVID-19 infections will begin a steep decline in April. Consequently, his best estimate of a complete "return to normal" in the U.S. is mid-summer 2021 (June/July). He defines "normality" as the removal of all COVID-19-related restrictions and interventions.

However, Gu suggests that there is a way for the U.S. to reach the herd immunity threshold of 60 percent as early as March. How? Since one-dose of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are nearly 90 percent effective, just give each person one-dose instead of requiring two. The problem is that hyper-cautious Food and Drug Administration regulators are unlikely to risk taking this step. In addition, Gu suggests prioritizing people for vaccination who have not already been infected.

Another big caveat is that Gu's calculations take into account just the rollout of the two currently approved vaccines. He notes if additional vaccines—such as those developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson—become available in early 2021 that will increase vaccine uptake, thus speeding up the process of reaching herd immunity.

According to recent news reports, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot believes that his company has worked out a dosing formula that boosts its two-dose virus-vector vaccine to around 90 percent efficacy at preventing COVID-19 infections. The U.K. is reportedly on the verge of approving it for distribution as early as this week. The U.S. government has agreed to purchase as many 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. If the data from Johnson & Johnson's clinical trial for its one-dose virus-vector vaccine shows that it provides significant protection against COVID-19, it could be approved before the end of January. The company has contracted with the federal government to provide 100 million doses of its vaccine.

If government regulators cut through bureaucratic red tape, the U.S. would have a good chance to essentially end the pandemic before spring. Will they? Probably not.

NEXT: 'Stop the Insanity,' the New York Post Urges Trump. 'It Is Time To End This Dark Charade.'

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  1. Mandatory vaccinations when? No exceptions for anti-vaxxers!

    1. SleepyJoe will tell you when your turn is.

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  2. Fuck off and die, Ronald

    1. Agreed.

      Ronald doesn’t get it.

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  3. Ron’s science buddies. Fuck off, Ron. We can’t vaccinate the most vulnerable, because they tend to die and people might get the wrong idea about the vaccine. We can also ship covid patients to nursing homes to die, and not care if nobody questions dying of covid vs. dying with covid. The former may make people distrust the experts. The latter empowers the experts.

    Fuck you, Ron. Fuck you.

    Why vaccinate our most frail? Odd vote out shows the dilemma
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/04/health/coronavirus-vaccine-acip-nursing-homes-question/index.html

    Talbot was worried about whether the vaccine would even work in such frail, vulnerable patients. Even more, she worried about how it might look if the vaccine failed in that group, or how it would affect public perception if residents died soon after getting the vaccine.

    …When shots begin to go into arms of residents, Moore said Americans need to understand that deaths may occur that won’t necessarily have anything to do with the vaccine.

    “We would not at all be surprised to see, coincidentally, vaccination happening and then having someone pass away a short time after they receive a vaccine, not because it has anything to do with the vaccination but just because that’s the place where people at the end of their lives reside,” Moore said.
    Nursing home and assisted living workers face Covid-19 surge — as they cope with grief

    “One of the things we want to make sure people understand is that they should not be unnecessarily alarmed if there are reports, once we start vaccinating, of someone or multiple people dying within a day or two of their vaccination who are residents of a long-term care facility. That would be something we would expect, as a normal occurrence, because people die frequently in nursing homes.”

    1. Americans need to understand that deaths may occur that won’t necessarily have anything to do with the vaccine

      Aw man!!!

      But the Feds just spent 10 months convincing everyone that correlation *DOES* equal causation since everyone who dies with COVID dies because of it, and not because of other totally-not-relevant things like being 80 years old, or overweight, or having renal failure, or having heart disease, or having diabetes…

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  4. Again, fuck you, Ron.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1343620091695538179
    “I don’t believe we have the evidence on any of the vaccines to be confident that it’s going to prevent people from actually getting the infection and therefore being able to pass it on”, says WHO Chief Scientist
    @doctorsoumya

  5. One more time; fuck you, Ron.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1343624194563731456
    JUST IN – Spain will set up a “registry” of people who refuse to take the vaccine against #COVID19 and share it with other European Union member states (AFP).

  6. Fuck Ron. Fuck Reason.

    https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/1343973052355231750
    Fauci’s exact quote from March 8th:

    “When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a bit better. It might even block a droplet. But it is not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is.”

  7. Science!! Ron

    https://twitter.com/codeofvets/status/1343656664466153478
    This assault on a disabled veteran for not wearing a mask is disturbing on every level. We secured this nation and our freedoms now we are under attack.

  8. Fuck off and die, Reason

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/1343593089038954510

    People are dying right now

    Families are barred entry to the hospitals

    Nurses and doctors are dancing on the grave of the dead while you can only watch from a distance

    comic credit
    @GPrime85

  9. Continue to fuck off, Ron

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9073767/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-key-role-Boris-Johnsons-dramatic-U-turn-Christmas.html
    The top scientific adviser who quit after breaking lockdown to see his married lover played a major role in the dramatic U-turn on Christmas.

    Professor Neil Ferguson was among those attending a meeting of Nervtag – the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group – to discuss the new mutant strain of coronavirus on Friday.

    The key findings showing the variant was 70 per cent more transmissible were then presented by Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty to Boris Johnson.

    They were said to have played a pivotal role in changing the Prime Minister’s mind – and led to Saturday’s announcement that Christmas was effectively cancelled for millions.

    1. https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/new-coronavirus-strain-may-infect-children-more-easily-says-scientist-on-covid-advisory-group-to-uk-government-39895076.html

      The new coronavirus strain which prompted the government to ban travel to and from the UK may infect children more easily than previous strains of Covid-19, Professor Neil Ferguson of NervTag has said.

      NervTag (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats advisory group) is Britain’s equivalent to Nphet and speaking recently at one of the group’s Q&A sessions, Prof Ferguson said it appeared the new mutation infected children more easily.

      Professor Ferguson also disclosed there was “strong evidence that the mutant strain was 50pc more transmissible than the previous virus”.

      1. You will be remembered with more favor than Ronald, when Earth is about to be swallowed by our sun’s last gasp.

  10. I’ve been assured that herd immunity is unpossible with this plague.

    1. SleepyJoe has a plan to fix that. He is the only one that can save us.

    2. How about herd mentality?

  11. And keep fucking off:

    Tier Four until EASTER: ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson warns draconian measures may be needed for months
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9074765/amp/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-warns-Tier-Four-needed-Easter.html
    ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson, an Imperial College London epidemiologist who quit his role as a Government adviser after breaking rules to see his married lover, today claimed the harshest curbs could ‘possibly’ have to stay until the spring and admitted Britain was now in a race to vaccinate people.

    He warned Britain’s situation was ‘not looking optimistic right now’. It comes after Matt Hancock yesterday warned the Tier Four restrictions could be extended nationwide, after the Health Secretary said the virus was now ‘out of control’ following the emergence of a fast-spreading new variant.

    1. Have they not looked at the excess deaths or the lack thereof? The UK is currently within their 5 year average for this time of year.

      1. Well the US is definitely way above the 5 year average. Maybe it’s exceptional but no doubt Covid has taken huge toll of Americans.

        1. I count among my friends a mortician, who assured me that despite an initial rush of business in the early spring, there is a bit of a slowdown now.

          It seems that all the people who’d normally die of heart attacks, stroke, cancer, and flu in a normal year, simply died a little earlier in this year of covid. But they were on the way out, so you’ll see, excess deaths will be negligible.

          CDC numbers right now for excess deaths in 2020 are projections. Actual numbers won’t be posted until mid-2021. Saying the US is above… is false.

          1. I don’t believe that is correct. Actual reported deaths already well exceeding the threshold. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

            1. That site mentions that the counts are estimates about 5 times…

              But I’ll split the baby: It’s likely that the US will see at least some excess deaths for 2020, but no where near 350,000 or whatever the final claimed COVID count is, because a huge slice of that number is deaths that would have happened anyway and/or were pulled forward by a few months.

        2. It is very hard to tell where the US is wrt excess deaths. For example, there is a huge disparity in date of actual death and date the reports were received. Everybody was up by quite a bit in the spring and up for the year but likely not up by too much now.

          As another poster mentioned, when 80% of your deaths are 70 and over and about half of those are in places where the average stay is about 6 months, I don’t see how the excess deaths could be out of line…maybe just shifted a bit.

  12. To cut through the red tape the way this article would like the FDA to do would require the FDA to violate the law. The FDA does not set the dosage for drugs – they only approve or deny the dosage that the manufacturer applies for. If the two-dose vaccines do not submit a request to use a single dose alternative, then the FDA does not have any legal right to approve the use of the single dose vaccine.

    1. Don’t confuse Bailey with reality.

      He wants a government that does damned well whatever it pleases.

      So long as he agrees with whatever they damned well please.

      That’s Reason’s idea of libertarianism.

      1. Bailey: writes article complaining about the FDA doing whatever it pleases and describing the harm it could cause.

        ThomasD: responds with a post saying Bailey is pleased with the government doing whatever it pleases.

        Is today Opposite Day?

        1. “The government must move quickly to approve a one-dose regimen for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines”

          Please tell me which of those two entities has filed an NDA for a single dose version of their vaccine?

          1. Since the answer to my question is neither

            Then Bailey’s sub title effectively reads: “The government must move quickly to approve something they have no statutory ability to approve.”

            Yesterday wasn’t opposite day, but it apparently was ignorance and/or poor reading comprehension day.

    2. the FDA does not have any legal right to approve the use of the single dose vaccine exist.

      FTFY

    3. But doctors can administer it off label. If they want a malpractice suit.

      1. Based on emergency use authority, they can’t give off label. These current vaccines are not approved as regular medications or chemotherapeutics, so there’s no off label discretion allowed.

        I’m sure that’s what you meant.

  13. And, for good measure, fuck right off, Ron

    Neil Ferguson reveals how China inspired lockdowns: ‘It’s a communist one-party state, we said. We couldn’t get away with it in Europe, we thought… and then Italy did it. And we realized we could’
    https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/12/27/neil-ferguson-reveals-how-china-inspired-lockdowns-its-a-communist-one-party-state-we-said-we-couldnt-get-away-with-it-in-europe-we-thought-and-then-italy-did-it-and/

    Professor Neil Ferguson has given an extraordinary interview to Tom Whipple at The Times, in which he confirms the degree to which he believes that imitating China’s lockdown policies at the start of 2020 changed the parameters of what Western societies consider acceptable.

    “I think people’s sense of what is possible in terms of control changed quite dramatically between January and March,” Professor Ferguson says. When SAGE observed the “innovative intervention” out of China, of locking entire communities down and not permitting them to leave their homes, they initially presumed it would not be an available option in a liberal Western democracy:

    “It’s a communist one-party state, we said. We couldn’t get away with it in Europe, we thought… and then Italy did it. And we realized we could.” – PROFESSOR NEIL FERGUSON, THE TIMES

    “If China had not done it,” he says, “the year would have been very different.”

    #

    Flashback January 2020: Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says in a Journal of the American Medical Association podcast that the U.S. wouldn’t implement draconian shutdowns of cities like what was occurring in China: “There’s no chance in the world that we could do that to Chicago or to New York or to San Francisco, but they’re (China) doing it. So, let’s see what happens.”

    1. Your string of ‘Fuck Off Ron’ posts was epic! Thoroughly enjoyed that. 🙂

      Ronald Bailey is a scientific illiterate.

  14. Interestingly, Gu estimates that roughly half of herd immunity will be achieved through natural infection…

    It’s dangerous and counter to the message to claim that those of us who have survived the infection contribute to herd immunity much less enjoy any level of personal immunity without the vaccine.

    If anything, I wear two masks now that it’s proven that I can get the COVID because I did get the COVID.

    1. I wear nothing but masks. Masks on my face, junk, and butthole. All masks all the time, and nothing else.

      1. It’s masks all the way down!

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  16. “We estimate COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021).”

    Summer, eh? Just about the time school vacation starts, eh? I think I see the problem there. I bet the teacher unions want a three-dose regimen.

  17. “Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”
    -H.L. Mencken

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/are-we-really-going-build-back-better-after-dark-winter

  18. I just came here to say Fuck Off Ron.

    Because it has not been said enough.

  19. Fauci now says herd immunity is 90+ percent. Goalposts shifted.

    1. Do I hear 105%?

      1. One MILLION percent!

      2. so, just like PA vote totals then?

  20. Yes quarantining the healthy and the sick worked wonders, so let’s jab your arm with this thing and see if that helps. Oh and you’ll need our sign off on your vaccine passport to travel. Papers please?

    1. To travel, but not to cross the border with Mexico. Demanding the same papers there is racist.

      1. It’s only racist if you require papers for northbound crossings. It’s fine to require proper documentation when traveling into Mexico.

  21. And again, fuck off Ron

    https://twitter.com/jennybethm/status/1343276619780255744
    Report: University of Florida researchers have found no asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread of Covid. The study was published online by the Journal of the American Medical Association.

    This could change everything.

    1. It should, but it will not.

      1. Amazing that this study has been roundly ignored by the MSM, isn’t it?

        1. Good news is no news.

    2. It doesn’t change anything because the study is specifically about HOUSEHOLD transmission. And that twitter specifically mischaracterizes (read – lies) the actual study. More specifically, when asked about that specific line, the response was
      “No, no we didn’t say that,” said Natalie E. Dean, a co-author of the study and a University of Florida assistant professor of biostatistics “This is a misinterpretation of our message of our scientific findings and conclusions.”

      But no surprise you lying sack of shit Trumpbots will pretend that the study says what the study doesn’t say and presumably will continue to say it. And hell – its entirely possible that one will find proof that they were paid off by the Chinese to lie about what was tweeted about

      1. It’s funny to watch both of you rush to take ardent positions on unclear science. The study did find that household transmission by asymptomatic people was statistically zero. This does not mean that they found that there is no asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread of the disease. It just means in their study they did not find it as a relevant vector in the transmission inside of households.

        We all need to stop pretending science on any of this is rock solid in order to own the other team politically.

        1. But if it’s 0 in households, where people are in the closest contact for the longest time, then it should be 0 everywhere else.

          1. Depends. Plenty of households have that one person who only leaves his room to poop and get food from the fridge. Hardly counts that the video game loser manages to avoid coronavirus. And getting a date.

          2. “Should be” and science don’t go together, except in the sense of “that should be, but that just means we haven’t the faintest fucking clue, so let’s run some experiments.”

        2. The study did find that household transmission by asymptomatic people was statistically zero.

          No. They did not find enough DATA about asymptomatics in households. That is not the same thing at all. They did find enough data about presymptomatics – and in fact presymptomatics DO transmit to others and are a significant vector of transmission.

          The mechanisms of transmission that DO exist in households indirectly indicates that ‘asymptomatic’ is not randomly distributed in the population. Rather, ‘asymptomatic’ is heavily skewed by age. Asymptomatic can only be determined in a continuous sample over a long enough period of time to both exclude ‘presymptomatic’ and to be tested as positive and then as recovered. So a sample of ‘household’ should be able to find that – compared to a sample of ‘random people’ whose composition changes over time. It is an example of survivorship bias in data.

          YOUNGER people are heavily asymptomatic. And in a household it is thus statistically impossible to separate ‘younger’ from ‘asymptomatic’.

      2. The transmission data I’ve seen says that household transmission is the primary vector.

  22. Herd immunity to “old” ro. Come spring we will be freaking out about “new” ro.

  23. lol Spring 2020?

  24. Hundreds of communities, dozens of counties, and several states appear to within several weeks or months of achieving herd immunity (before vaccines will be accessible to us deplorables).

    Studies have found 3 – 10 times more Americans were infected with covid (than have tested positive), including a recent study finding 4 times more Texans had been infected.

    According to the Allegheny County Health Dept, 33.8% of residents in Sewickley Heights (one of the wealthiest suburban Pittsburgh townships) have tested positive for covid.

    And according to Bloomberg/Hopkins, counties with the highest rates of people testing positive for covid (and most likely to be closest to achieving herd immunity) are:
    Crowley, CO – 27.4%
    Norton, KS – 21.6%
    Lincoln, AR – 20.7%
    Bon Homme, SD – 20.6%
    Dewey, SD – 20.6%
    Chattahoochee, GA – 20.4%
    Buffalo, SD – 19.9%
    Trousdale, TN – 19.2%
    Lake, TN – 18.4%
    Buena Vista, IA – 18.2%
    Dakota, NE – 17.2%
    Eddy, ND – 17.1%
    Foster, ND – 16.9%
    Ellsworth, KS – 16.3%
    Jackson, AR – 16.3%
    Lafayette, FL – 16.2%
    Childress, TX – 16.2%
    Seward, KS – 16.0%
    Nobles, MN – 15.9%
    Lee, AR – 15.5%
    Alfalfa, OK – 15.3%
    Big Horn, MT – 15.2%
    Menominie, WI – 15.1%
    Morton, ND – 14.9%
    Ford, KS – 14.9%
    Walsh, ND – 14.8%
    Finney, KS – 14.7%
    Logan, CO – 14.7%
    Hale, TX – 14.6%
    Sheridan, KS – 14.6%
    Stutsman, ND – 14.6%
    Pawnee, KS – 14.5%
    Crocket, TX – 14.3%
    Texas, OK – 14.1%
    Burleigh, ND – 14.1%
    Wayne, TN – 14.1%
    Aurora, SD – 14.0%
    Nelson, ND – 14.0%
    (data as of 12/23/2020)

    1. More than 6% of Americans have already tested positive for covid.

      States with the highest covid rate (i.e. people testing positive) are:
      ND – 12.0%
      SD – 11.0%
      WI – 8.8%
      IA – 8.8%
      NE – 8.4%
      UT – 8.3%
      TN – 8.3%
      RI – 8.1%
      ID – 7.7%
      WY – 7.6%
      MT – 7.5%
      KS – 7.5%
      IL – 7.4%
      AR – 7.2%
      OK – 7.1%
      AL – 7.1%
      NV – 7.1%

      1. States with the highest covid rate (i.e. people testing positive) are:
        ND – 12.0%

        It practically defies physics. In order for ND to surpass NY (or CA or TX) in terms of relative COVID rates, NDers would have to come into contact with more people on a daily basis than NYers. The only difference would be if lockdowns or masks were a) impossibly effective† and b) disproportionately used in places like NY.

        Interesting to note that places identified as exercises in genocide, like GA and FL, aren’t on that list.

        † – As determined by numerous CDC studies that repeatedly show 50-80% of new COVID cases among people who between always and almost always wear a mask.

        1. Masks and lockdowns speed the spread.

          1. Sure seems like it.

        2. if 90% of people are wearing masks, and only 50-80% of people (65% mean) catching covid wore masks….. that should tell you something. if masks made no difference, it would be 90%.

          1. …………………………..

            lol?

            1. I’m sorry if simple deductive reasoning leaves you puzzled. if 10% of the population is not wearing masks, yet 20-50% of the people catching Covid are not wearing masks…… masks make a difference. i know the simple minded try to flip it to imply the opposite, but this is the way reality actually works. if masks made no difference, the percentage of people who wear them and catch covid would be identical to the percentage of people wearing them in general.

    2. Since nobody else has done so (due to irresponsible partisan journalism at Reason and in America), I’ve just updated the list of counties in the US with the highest rates of positively tested covid cases (which appear within days, weeks or a month of achieving herd immunity, regardless of covid vaccines).
      Crowley, CO – 28.0%
      Norton, KS – 21.7%
      Dewey, SD – 21.3%
      Bon Homme, SD – 21.1%
      Lincoln, AR – 21.0%
      Chattahoochee, GA – 20.5%
      Buffalo, SD – 20.1%
      Trousdale, TN – 19.5%
      Lake, TN – 18.8%
      Buena Vista, IA – 18.4%
      Eddy, ND – 17.9%
      Bent, CO – 17.5%
      Dakota, NE – 17.3%
      Ellsworth, KS – 16.8%
      Jackson, AR – 16.6%
      Foster, ND – 16.3%
      Seward, KS – 16.3%
      Childress, TX – 16.3%
      Lafayette, FL – 16.2%
      Nobles, MN – 16.0%
      Alfalfa, OK – 15.9%
      Lee, AR – 15.7%
      Big Horn, MT – 15.3%
      Menominie, WI – 15.2%
      Ford, KS – 15.0%
      Walsh, ND – 15.0%
      Logan, CO – 14.9%
      Morton, ND – 14.8%
      Finney, KS – 14.8%
      Sheridan, KS – 14.8%
      Stutsman, ND – 14.8%
      Lee, KY – 14.8%
      Lassen, CA – 14.8%
      Hale, TX – 14.7%
      Pawnee, KS – 14.7%
      Aurora, SD – 14.6%
      Crocket, TX – 14.5%
      Wayne, TN – 14.4%
      Texas, OK – 14.3%
      Burleigh, ND – 14.3%
      Nelson, ND – 14.1%
      Benson, ND – 14.0%
      Culberson, TX – 14.0%
      Sioux, ND – 13.9%
      Lincoln, CO – 13.9%
      Toole, MT – 13.8%
      Dickey, ND – 13.6%
      Potter, SD – 13.6%
      Davison, SD – 13.6%
      Lyman, SD – 13.5%
      Oglala Lakota, SD – 13.4%
      Faulk, SD – 13.4%
      Griggs, ND – 13.4%
      Lubbock, TX – 13.4%
      Plymouth, IA – 13.3%
      McKinley, NM – 13.3%
      Chicot, AR – 13.3%
      Colfax, NE – 13.2%
      Beadle, SD – 13.2%
      East Carroll, LA – 13.2%
      Madison, ID – 13.2%
      Nemaha, KS – 13.1%
      Grand Forks, ND – 13.0%
      Rolette, ND – 13.0%
      Stark, ND – 13.0%

      1. The graphs showing the massive decline in new daily covid cases in midwest, prairie, Rocky Mountain and some southern states indicate that herd immunity could be achieved in several days or weeks, while many other states may do so in the next several months.

        According to data by Bloomberg/Hopkins at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states
        during the past 6 weeks, new daily covid cases has declined by 90% in North Dakota, by 80% in Iowa, by 75% in South Dakota and Wisconsin, by 67% in Wyoming, Nebraska, and Montana.

        1. a large federal or state institution was the source of covid outbreaks in many/most of the counties with the highest rates of covid.
          Crowley, CO – 27.4% (State Prison)
          Norton, KS – 21.6% (State Prison, Nursing Home)
          Lincoln, AR – 20.7% (State Prison)
          Bon Homme, SD – 20.6% (State Prison)
          Dewey, SD – 20.6% (Indian Reservation)
          Chattahoochee, GA – 20.4% (Fort Benning US Military)
          Buffalo, SD – 19.9% (Indian Reservation)
          Trousdale, TN – 19.2% (State Prison)
          Lake, TN – 18.4% (State Prison)
          Buena Vista, IA – 18.2% (Tyson Meat Packing Plant)
          Dakota, NE – 17.2% (Tyson Meat Packing Plant)
          Eddy, ND – 17.1%
          Foster, ND – 16.9%
          Ellsworth, KS – 16.3%
          Jackson, AR – 16.3% (State Prisons)
          Lafayette, FL – 16.2% (State Prison)

          Am surprised that nobody else has revealed this.
          Note that covid rates above were as of 12/23/20.

      2. so…. 9 months to get to 13%, and low ball estimates for herd immunity are 60%….. and you think we are weeks away from being there? you might be a moron.

        1. Why doesn’t the curve ever go up to 60% then? Why does it ALWAYS get to roughly 20% and then start slowing down?

          1. i don’t know WTF you are talking about,…. and something tells me you don’t either.

      3. US counties with the highest rates of positively tested covid cases, which appear within days or weeks of achieving herd immunity, long before vaccines will have an impact. (Data as of 1/7/2021)
        Crowley, CO – 28.5%
        Dewey, SD – 22.3%
        Norton, KS – 21.8%
        Lincoln, AR – 21.5%
        Bon Homme, SD – 21.3%
        Chattahoochee, GA – 20.9%
        Bent, CO – 20.3%
        Buffalo, SD – 20.3%
        Trousdale, TN – 20.2%
        Lake, TN – 20.1%
        Buena Vista, IA – 19.3%
        Eddy, ND – 18.0%
        Ellsworth, KS – 17.6%
        Dakota, NE – 17.6%
        Jackson, AR – 17.3%
        Childress, TX – 17.3%
        Alfalfa, OK – 16.8%
        Lee, AR – 16.6%
        Foster, ND – 16.6%
        Lafayette, FL – 16.6%
        Seward, KS – 16.4%
        Nobles, MN – 16.3%
        Menominee, WI – 16.0%
        Hale, TX – 16.0%
        Big Horn, MT – 15.9%
        Lassen, CA – 15.9%
        Pawnee, KS – 15.7%
        Logan, CO – 15.6%
        Sheridan, KS – 15.6%
        Ford, KS – 15.5%
        Walsh, ND – 15.5%
        Wayne, TN – 15.3%
        Lee, KY – 15.3%
        Stutsman, ND – 15.2%
        Morton, ND – 15.1%
        Aurora, SD – 14.9%
        Nelson, ND – 14.7%
        Crocket, TX – 14.7%
        Texas, OK – 14.7%
        Potter, SD – 14.5%
        Burleigh, ND – 14.5%
        Benson, ND – 14.4%
        Dickey, ND – 14.3%
        Lyman, SD – 14.2%
        Sioux, ND – 14.2%
        Lubbock, TX – 14.2%
        McKinley, NM – 14.2%
        East Carroll, LA – 14.2%
        Lincoln, CO – 14.0%
        Toole, MT – 14.0%
        Yuma, AZ – 14.0%
        Davison, SD – 13.9%
        Chicot, AR – 13.9%
        Griggs, ND – 13.8%
        Rolette, ND – 13.8%
        Oglala Lakota, SD – 13.7%
        Plymouth, IA – 13.7%
        Faulk, SD – 13.6%
        Finney, KS – 13.5%
        Colfax, NE – 13.5%
        Nemaha, KS – 13.4%
        Beadle, SD – 13.4%
        Stark, ND – 13.3%
        Grand Forks, ND – 13.2%
        Madison, ID – 13.2%
        Douglas, SD – 13.2%
        Haywood, TN – 13.2%
        Lamb, TX – 13.2%
        Ramsey, ND – 13.1%
        Kearny, KS – 13.0%
        Potter, TX – 13.0%
        Crawford, IA – 12.9%

  25. Twenty million Americans will not be vaccinated by the end of this year as promised by the federal government. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just over 2.1 million Americans have received the first dose COVID-19 vaccines and nearly 11.5 million doses have been distributed. That number is tens of millions fewer vaccinated people than is needed to reach the herd immunity threshold that would effectively stop the pandemic.

    This assumes a more virulent but less lethal strain doesn’t burn through the population and provide a measure of immunity first…

    1. It’s hilarious (schadenfreudig?) to think that despite our best efforts to prevent the spread, a passive assemblage of molecules floating on air droplets that breaks down in adverse conditions can spread to the far reaches of the country in a matter of days to weeks but we can’t distribute a vaccine to even select populations in a matter of months. If only we had some sort of national delivery service…

  26. I don’t control the herd. But I do care about my immunity and it will not require a fake vaccine to achieve. Your immune system learns and protects you through constant exposure to germs and bacteria. They are everywhere, even in the sterile hospitals. No vaccine will ever do a better job then your immune system. Vaccines have NEVER been proven to work as no indepndent studies have ever been done. That would expose Big Pharma and their useless poisons. Well, they aren’t really useless. Their purpose is to make you sicker and thus support the medical mafia for life.

    1. Vaccines have NEVER been proven to work as no indepndent studies have ever been done.

      Learn to spell, learn to type, learn to code, seek professional help, and fuck off, not necessarily in that order.

    2. “Vaccines have NEVER been proven to work as no indepndent studies have ever been done. ”

      yeah….. polio is still totally around….

  27. I don’t control the herd. But I do care about my immunity and it will not require a fake vaccine to achieve. Your immune system learns and protects you through constant exposure to germs and bacteria. They are everywhere, even in the sterile hospitals. No vaccine will ever do a better job then your immune system. Vaccines have NEVER been proven to work as no independent studies have ever been done. That would expose Big Pharma and their useless poisons. Well, they aren’t really useless. Their purpose is to make you sicker by weakening your immune system over time and thus support the medical mafia for life.

  28. I don’t control the herd. But I do care about my immunity and it will not require a fake vaccine to achieve. Your immune system learns and protects you through constant exposure to germs and bacteria. They are everywhere, even in the sterile hospitals. No vaccine will ever do a better job then your immune system. Vaccines have NEVER been proven to work as no independent studies have ever been done. That would expose Big Pharma and their useless poisons. Well, they aren’t really useless. Their purpose is to make you sicker by weakening your immune system over time and thus support the medical mafia for life. Then you fall victim to an endless stream of Pharma drugs pumped into you.

    1. Untrue.

    2. Your immune system is a miracle of biology until the day it is beaten by a new virus. People do get sick and die. Not so much of polio or smallpox anymore, for some strange reason.

  29. Our doctors and our pharmacies need government to get out of their way and we would get Americans vaccinated. Government is like the Keystone cops running hurdles that they are setting in front of themselves.

    The greatest service, the only real service, that any government can ever provide any private individual is benign neglect — leaving them alone to live and prosper without government meddling and plundering.

    1. What about the meddling involved with buying all the vaccine for people? That OK?

      1. Per your own statements, no. It’s not a legitimate function of government, or any other organization really, to buy vaccines on behalf of people who don’t want it. Any organization that can ‘legitimately’ do that can ‘legitimately’ do all sorts of other nonsensical things against people’s will.

        1. The vaccine will be of most interest to the elderly so the government’s already paying for them anyhow, as they’re on Medicare. Essential workers are prioritized for the vaccine, but some of them are part-time and might be uninsured, so the government would have to pay for them, too. Then you’ve got Medicaid, subsidized plans on the health exchanges, plus public employees with insurance paid by the government. To me, rather than trying to separate out the people who are already getting vaccinated on the government’s dime and process tens of millions of insurance claims for people who have private insurance, it probably makes more sense for the government just to pay for all of it, especially if it reduces paperwork so the the vaccine can be administered more quickly.

  30. There are chords in the hearts of the most reckless which cannot be touched without emotion, even by the utterly lost, to whom life and death are equally jests, there are matters of which no jest can be made.”
    ― Edgar Allan Poe, The Masque of the Red Death

    Poe was a poet of the dark side and should not be taken easily.

    The enemy is a single stranded RNA sequence capable of using you to replicate itself. That is all it does.

    It does not care about your politics, nationality, religion, any of that.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-020-00468-6

    That is the enemy.

    1. Happy New Year, Echospinner (a little early).

      1. Thank you. Happy new year to you and yours.

        It will be a better year than the last one.

    2. The enemy is a single stranded RNA sequence capable of using you to replicate itself. That is all it does.

      It does not care about your politics, nationality, religion, any of that.

      So, black people not disproportionately affected by the virus then?

      1. African Americans are affected more as a group. This is because they are less likely to have reliable access to health care, exposure due to occupation, and other socio-demographic factors. Also have a higher incidence of co-morbid conditions such as heart, lung, kidney diseases, and hypertension.

        It has nothing to do with the virus itself. The disease it causes has higher morbidity and mortality in certain groups, as do other diseases, due to the above factors.

        The Navajo nation is another example. I have done some remote work with clinics there. They are in a very limited environment to provide health care.

        One of the interesting things about this virus is the age factor. It is different than many other viral diseases in that respect. The immunology I do not think is well understood. Dr Fauci could likely give a two semester course on aging and immune response which would mostly fly right past me.

        Try and learn something every day.

        https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.01748/full

  31. Your efficiency arguments are invalid.

    –Signed, Government

  32. The government has been diligent with its vaccine fairness committees in saying who can and can’t get the vaccine and when, but now we see they can’t actually get it administered to people. If you don’t want it, no problem, but a lot of people do. Going from two doses to one with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines doesn’t matter if they can’t actually implement a vaccination program. Every year we vaccinate half the population for flu in a 3-4 month window, but some have compared rolling out the Covid vaccine to a moon landing. How so? I get it that the Pfizer vaccine has to be kept very cold, but not up to the time of administration. It could be kept at a local cold storage point (such as a hospital) and then taken to Walgreens and CVS locations every day for that day’s shots.

  33. i still think it is profoundly dangerous for anyone to be pushing for single shot application of a vaccine that has only been verified with two shot applications. we don’t know how long immunity lasts with just one shot. we know immunity drops faster for minor cases of Covid and people can be reinfected within months…… it could be the same with one shot application of this vaccine. you get half the county vaccinated, and half of them are no longer immune by the time you finish.

    1. Prescribe a drug to be taken twice or 4x daily vs a once a day dose. Now check compliance.

      Nobody should be pushing a regimen other than that recommended and approved. Ron Bailey is the worst science editor of any publication I have known. He has no background nor education in science. A BA from 30 years ago in philosophy and economics from 30+ years ago.

    2. I know two health care workers who’ve gotten the vaccine and they were both told (by different employers) that the vaccine is 52 percent effective after the first dose and 90+ after the second. So, I don’t know where the article’s claim that it’s better than 90 percent effective after the first dose is coming from. As you say, it would seem pointless to go through clinical trials to establish an efficacy level and then just throw that out the window and do something different. Vaccine availability is not even the issue now, anyway, as they have not even administered the doses they already have.

  34. Wow. How about quoting someone in the right field. Gu is a computer scientist, not an epidemiologist, virologist or public health physician. He has ZERO experience in managing disease outbreaks. He makes computer simulations and models. So his prediction that giving only 1 dose of the vaccine would get to a March herd immunity may be accurate, but he has no business recommending such an approach, and bad job on the author from writing a column based on it.

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