Reason Roundup

California Churches Stuck in Limbo After Supreme Court Decision

Plus: Congress to vote today on marijuana decriminalization, new study shows bad news for indoor diners, and more...

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The fate of California church services is now in limbo. In an unsigned order issued December 3, Supreme Court justices granted a petition from Harvest Rock Church of Pasadena, California, and the statewide Harvest International Ministry, to vacate a lower court's ruling against the religious organizations.

Harvest Rock Church and Harvest International Ministry are challenging California Gov. Gavin Newsom's pandemic-related emergency orders that prevent indoor religious services in some parts of the state.

"It is the goal of Harvest Rock Church to protect the first amendment constitutional rights of the church and all people, while taking a specific stand against the misclassification of the worship of God as non-essential during this time of national unrest, economic strife, and physical ailment," says a statement from the church about the lawsuit.

In September, a lower court sided against the church and, in October, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit denied Harvest Rock's motion for an injunction. But "the September 2 order of the United States District Court for the Central District of California is vacated," states the Supreme Court's new order.

SCOTUS ordered the case to be "remanded to the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit with instructions to remand to the District Court for further consideration in light of" Roman Catholic Diocese of Brooklyn v. Cuomo, a recent Supreme Court decision regarding New York shutdown orders. In that decision, issued November 25, the court ruled against New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's restrictions on religious services.

The Supreme Court's latest order "seems to leave in place for now [California's] substantial limitations, which in some places serve as a ban on indoor services," notes Robert Barnes at The Washington Post. But it also leaves room for the district court to strike them down.

Why the discrepancy between the Court's decision in this case (to simply send it back to a lower court) and the more substantial ruling with regard to New York? It comes down to differing circumstances between California and New York, explains legal blogger Amy Howe:

Emphasizing that COVID-19 cases in California are 'spiking' and that indoor activities are especially risky for the spread of the virus, the state concedes that the church has 'a powerful interest in worshipping in the place and manner of' its choosing. But it stresses that this case is different from the New York challenges because California 'applies the same restrictions to indoor worship as to comparable secular activities involving large groups gathering in close proximity indoors for prolonged periods.' For instance, in its most restrictive zones, the state prohibits indoor gatherings at movie theaters, restaurants, museums and other large spaces, as well as worship services. The state suggested that before the Supreme Court rules on the church's request, it should allow the lower court to 'promptly evaluate' the church's arguments in light of last week's decision in the New York case and 'the current factual and legal circumstances in California.'

But California's argument in the Harvest Rock case may not hold up in light of the state's latest emergency order. The governor's website says that "places of worship" throughout the state can "allow outdoor services only" if they are in a region that drops below 15 percent intensive-care-unit capacity. "In short, all houses of worship [in those areas] will be shut down," notes Volokh Conspiracy blogger Josh Blackman, while "shopping malls stay open at 20 percent capacity."

"The petitioners in Harvest Rock should file a motion for reconsideration, and seek an injunction pending appeal," Blackman suggests. (He delves into the case in much more detail here.)

Whatever happens in the Harvest Rock case, the larger issue here is far from resolved. The Supreme Court has "two other pending requests for relief from COVID-related restrictions, involving houses of worship in New Jersey and a Christian school in Kentucky," notes Howe.


QUICK HITS

• The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote today on the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which would (among other things) decriminalize marijuana at the federal level. "Friday's vote would mark the first time a full chamber of Congress has taken up the issue of federally decriminalizing cannabis," notes NBC.

• Calling your neighbor a "slumlord" on Facebook is constitutionally protected speech, the Iowa Court of Appeals held this week.

• San Francisco is banning people from smoking cigarettes in their own apartments.

• A new study from South Korea provides more information about COVID-19 spread in indoor spaces:

• In a very informative new podcast, Sunny Megatron "details the modern history of sexual censorship in the U.S. starting with Miller vs. California in 1973 diving down the rabbit hole of historical events leading us to where we are now."

• Trump still says he'll veto the defense spending authorization bill since it doesn't repeal the internet law Section 230:

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  1. The fate of California church services is now in limbo.

    Purgatory.

    1. Yeah, the Catholic Church abolished limbo.

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    2. So your a popist? Good to know.

    3. Hello.

      I thought it was known it’s an aerosol that can travel 30 ft.

      Now the new thing is ‘even with a vaccine it won’t change anything.’

      There’s only one rational play here now: KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON.

      1. New Normal, comrade.
        We’re in for a Great Reset, and they’ll Build Back Better.

        1. After the Dark Winter, of course

          1. We all know who the Night King is in that scenario. No, not Joe Biden, he’s obviously one of the undead puppets doing the Night King’s bidding. The Night King is George Soros.

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    4. that is an easy word play that a journalist should be embarrassed at missing.

    5. This was so obvious I can’t believe I didn’t think of it!

    6. The Constitution is what we agreed to. Nobody has the power to unilaterally change it.

      Fuck the courts. If they will allow rights to be stomped on because of fear, then we might need a very, very bloody overthrow of the system.

      1. If not now, when?

    7. Again, it’s Sunday morning and I have to wonder why the trolls are here rather than in church?

      Are they afraid of the COVID? Or will they finally admit they’ve replaced Christ with trump?
      READ MORE

  2. The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote today on the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which would (among other things) decriminalize marijuana at the federal level.

    Can’t wait to see how they fuck it up.

    1. Taxes, of course.

      1. And 2000+ pages of contradicting regulations.

    2. the senate won’t even take it up for a vote.

  3. San Francisco is banning people from smoking cigarettes in their own apartments.

    How is that city not driving people away in droves?

    1. It has been. I believe I’ve read rents there have fallen 25% since tech companies are letting people work remotely. The wonderful municipal government surely has aided that exodus.

      1. I have had to drive into the city from the north across the Golden Gate Bridge for a specialist appointment bimonthly. What used to take two hours of 25 mph traffic now takes one hour at very considerably over the posted limits.
        Even going up and down Divisadero is a breeze. If it weren’t for the homeless the place would look like Night of the Comet.

        1. The homeless leave wet piles?

    2. Weed’s cool, but apparently tobacco is the devil’s little flower garden.

    3. As progressives say “my body my choice unless you want to smoke, or eat trans fats, or drive without a seat belt, or work for less then minimum wage, or….”

  4. I’m so incredibly black pilled right now. We are living under Marshall law for 8 months now. The gov is declaring war on it’s citizens, we are currently facing the worse depression in our lifetimes if people went back to normal tmw and this is the type of bullshit you people are focusing on? WTF? Los Angeles just banned walking outdoors.

    1. Martial Law.

      Why did you make me be that guy?

      1. I can’t help it over the years I’ve just accepted that I’m worse than John.

      2. Doesn’t matter anymore.
        Marshall law is now standard spelling of martial law.
        Just like could of is the standard way of saying could have, even though the new form literally makes no sense

        1. I could care less (or couldn’t I?)

    2. And the libertarians are completely cool with that, and it is outrageous for mere peasants to lack faith in Top Men.

    3. The more I see shit like this, the more I think Thanos might have been on to something.

      1. Thanos was the ultimate Proggie. Environmentalism at the expense of all else. Unfortunately, killing half the humans would only roll the population back to 1970.

      2. Thanos was bad at math and didn’t understand geometric growth.

        Killing off half the population only buys you a short reprieve before the old population is reached again.

    4. Trump’s biggest failure as president is his failure to act against these tyrants.

    5. And Reason doesn’t seem too worked up over it.

      They were infinitely more worked up over Trump’s tariffs or immigration policies….but governors and mayors just shitting on Constitutional rights is a bit of a inconvenience for them.

      1. They obviously support it. Some asshole manufactures a study in Korea and suddenly ENB is all “SEE! SEE WE TOLLLLLLLD YOU!!!”

  5. Nov 3 second Georgia State Senate hearing.

    This video from State Farm Arena was unknown to be on to Fulton County election staff. They introduced fraudulent ballots from 11:00pm to 1am after telling observers and the press that they were done counting for the night. Notice they pulled the fake ballots cases out from a table cloth covered table.

    1. I watched the attorney going through the video and I admit that it looked suspicious to me. I think it should be thoroughly investigated.

      Having said that, already the claims are being refuted by Georgia election officials.
      https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/12/fact-check-video-from-ga-does-not-show-suitcases-filled-with-ballots-pulled-from-under-a-table-after-poll-workers-dismissed.html

      The above link quotes Georgia’s voting system implementation manager, who is a Republican, as well as the chief investigator for the Georgia Secretary of State (who is also a Republican) as saying the following

      * Observers and the press were not told to leave. They did so voluntarily after the people who’s job it is to check and open mail-in ballot envelopes finished their job and left.
      * The vote tabulating area was never off limits to observers or the press.
      * The ballots that are counted in the video were not hidden under a table, they were placed there earlier in the day in view of observers.
      * The ballots that are counted in the video were not in suitcases, they were in the standard bins used to store ballots before being counted.
      * Georgia law does not require observers to be present when ballots are counted, it only gives them the right to be if they so choose, so the activities that are shown are not in violation of Georgia election law simply because the observers left.

      Many of the above claims should be easy to verify. As I said, I think this incident should be thoroughly investigated, but already, Republican officials in Georgia are refuting the claims that this shows something nefarious.

      1. From what I gather, that’s all they’re asking for. Just make sure.

        I don’t see a problem with that.

      2. Even if the ballots were not fraudulent ballots, it is against Georgia Election code to count ballots without observers.

        So we have THAT instance of election law violation among many others. What is the remedy?

        Since Fulton County was the constant source of problems, void that county’s vote totals. I bet those employees get fired then.

        1. it is against Georgia Election code to count ballots without observers

          Not according to the officials quoted in the article I linked to above. This is the section of the Georgia Code they are talking about:

          http://ga.elaws.us/law/section21-2-408

          Section (d) seems to be most relevant and says “Notwithstanding any other provisions of this chapter, a poll watcher may be permitted behind the enclosed space for the purpose of observing the conduct of the election and the counting and recording of votes.”

          I guess the operative word here is “may”. It doesn’t say they must be present.

          But IANAL, so by all means if you know of a more definitive section of Georgia law that says that observers must be present for counting, please link to it. I would honestly like to know.

        2. it is against Georgia Election code to count ballots without observers.

          IANAL, but from my limited reading, that is not the case. As the GA SoS counsel states, and Debunking notes above, candidates and parties are entitled to designate official poll watchers, but those poll watchers aren’t required for ballots to be counted.

          Relevant text here:
          https://preview.tinyurl.com/y6s9qbv9

          1. Alright, now even I’m suspecting that I’m a Debunking sockpuppet, so I’m just gonna stop.

            1. I think my nose is of a typical proportion to the rest of my face, but I admit I haven’t done a statistical analysis to be sure.

          2. I dont click links that dont say what they are. unreason bots are notorious for spam.

            § 21-2-406. Public performance of duties by officials
            Superintendents, poll officers, and other officials engaged in the conducting of primaries and elections held under this chapter shall perform their duties in public.

            Notice it says “SHALL perform their duties in public”.

            21-2-408. (c) In counties or municipalities using direct recording electronic (DRE) voting systems or optical scanning voting systems, each political party may appoint two poll watchers in each primary or election, each political body may appoint two poll watchers in each election, each nonpartisan candidate may appoint one poll watcher in each nonpartisan election, and each independent candidate may appoint one poll watcher in each election to serve in the locations designated by the superintendent within the tabulating center. Such designated locations shall include the check-in area, the computer room, the duplication area, and such other areas as the superintendent may deem necessary to the assurance of fair and honest procedures in the tabulating center. The poll watchers provided for in this subsection shall be appointed and serve in the same manner as other poll watchers.

            d) Notwithstanding any other provisions of this chapter, a poll watcher may be permitted behind the enclosed space for the purpose of observing the conduct of the election and the counting and recording of votes

            1. I do think its funny that unreason supports non-public counting of ballots and election fraud by Democrats.

              You deserve everything the Republicans will do under the Constitution to defeat the Democrat election fraud.

              The Constitution strikes again!

              1. Thank you for pointing out the language in 21-2-406.

                I guess the question is whether the room they were counting in was considered “in public” even when observers weren’t present.

                Again, IANAL, but my take would be that it is in public if observers could have gained access if they chose to do so. If observers were prohibited from accessing that area, or if they were told the counting had finished and then it resumed (I know this is what is claimed, but is also contested — again, it should be investigated), then I would say it is not in public.

                But I don’t think the absence of observers in and of itself is reason to say that it was not carried out in public.

                If observers had to be present to count votes, then one side could indefinitely delay the completion of an election by simply refusing to send observers. That wouldn’t be a good thing.

                So I think the spirit of the law is actually correct — election processes should be open to observers, but observers shouldn’t be required. But I would hope that observers from both sides would be present.

                1. witnesses say they were told to leave, as counting was done for the night.

            2. I dont click links that dont say what they are.

              Hence my using a preview link. But whatever, it looks like you were able to find the relevant text anyways, which is good.

              Notice it says “SHALL perform their duties in public”.

              Yes, if you’re going to be an election official, poll watcher, etc. you have to do your business in public. None of this says that poll watchers are required to be present.

              21-2-408. (c)

              Congrats, you can copy and paste. Now, tell me where in that text it says that poll watchers are required to be present for ballots to be counted.

              “…each political party may appoint two poll watchers in each primary or election, each political body may appoint two poll watchers in each election, each nonpartisan candidate may appoint one poll watcher in each nonpartisan election, and each independent candidate may appoint one poll watcher in each election to serve in the locations designated by the superintendent within the tabulating center.”

              “May”. Not “must”.

              1. I really don’t want to get into this without a full understanding of what went on throughout the night, but that comment is obtuse. You cite the law in a way that ignores all of the nuance involved. The poll watchers were allowed and certainly desired to be present during all of the counting. They had to have been either misinformed or misled that the counting was finished for the evening and would not continue.

                This has all the appearance of fraud. If it was legitimate, the people counting or their supervisor should have stopped to question why the observers that had been there all night disappeared.

                1. I didn’t intend to offer an opinion on whether all of what happened that night was legitimate, I only meant to point out that LC1789 appears to be wrong to say that it is illegal to count ballots without observers present. Observers are allowed, not required.

                  I agree that this all should be investigated. The article that Debunking linked to above has some rebuttal to these claims from the GA SoS, but of course that’s not the end of the matter.

                  1. The claim is the observers were told counting for the night had stopped. It didn’t. This is further backed up by the fact that the observers told that returned to the area at 1am to figure out what was going on.

                    Your inferences are totally partisan.

                    1. I’m not seeing the partisan inferences that you claim he’s making – what is it that he said that makes you think he’s being partisan? As far as I can see, the entirety of what he’s said here is that the law doesn’t *require* observers to be present, and that there are claims and counterclaims about what actually happened. That’s about as non-partisan as you can get.

                    2. The claim is the observers were told counting for the night had stopped. It didn’t. This is further backed up by the fact that the observers told that returned to the area at 1am to figure out what was going on.

                      Where have I disputed this? And what partisan inferences have I made?

                    3. Hmmmmm, is this the same location that counting was stopped due to a water main break that later turned out not to have broken ?

                      So you tell the observers to leave because the water main broke, pull out these boxes and start counting. You can then say “well they chose to leave”, nicely forgetting to mention that they left because you lied about counting stopping. Nothing suspicious there at all right ?

                  2. LC1789 appears to be wrong to say that it is illegal to count ballots without observers present.

                    Again, obtuse. Observers are allowed. Observers desired to be present. Counting was done without observers present. That sounds like a violation of letter of the law, in addition to being completely at odds with the spirit of the law.

                    1. “Even if the ballots were not fraudulent ballots, it is against Georgia Election code to count ballots without observers.”

                      This was the statement that was made. It is false. That was the beginning and the end of my original point. Call it pedantic if you’d like, but I have yet to see you point out where I’m wrong about that.

                      Any deceit on the part of poll workers to remove observers who wanted to be there (assuming that’s what happened, and right now it looks like it was), would very likely be in violation of the law. On this, I think we’re in agreement. But that’s different than saying that any ballots counted without observers present is illegal full-stop.

                    2. “It is false”

                      Nothing you posted has demonstrated that yet. Your assertion that is IS false is false

                    3. Nothing you posted has demonstrated that yet.

                      Except for the link to the section of the GA code cited by the SoS. If you can find somewhere in that code that says “it is against Georgia election code to count ballots without observers”, please show me where.

                    4. “Except for the link to the section of the GA code cited by the SoS.”

                      Which was refuted by Lc1789 with his link.

                    5. Which was refuted by Lc1789 with his link.

                      Really? Where? It should be easy for you to find in the text.

                    6. You cant find it yourself? Or do you actually think dueling links means your proof is real and his isn’t?

                      “IANAL”

                      Oh sorry that was you.

                    7. You cant find it yourself?

                      Alas, apparently not. Mind lending a hand? The link and LC’s copy/paste are right there, it should only take a moment. Thanks!

                    8. I thought you shit your pantts and left?

                    9. Nope, still waiting on that text from the GA code that says that ballots can’t be counted without observers present. Could you help me find it? Seems like we’re just shitting up the whole thread if you’re not gonna at least help a brother out.

                    10. . The poll watchers provided for in this subsection shall be appointed and serve in the same manner as other poll watchers.

                      If the poll watchers werw aaked to leave (a fact that is in contention) they legally, they were not allowed to serve “in the same manner as other poll watchers”, specifically those that stayed.

                      Now stop shitting up the thread troll.

                    11. “Enjoy your day/weekend!”

                      No you definitely shit your pants and left.

                      “Ah well, go ahead and have the last word”

                      But you got upset and “had to have the last word”

                    12. He knows he’s wrong it’s why he started the personal attacks.

                    13. If the poll watchers werw aaked to leave

                      Which wasn’t LC’s original statement. Which is what I was responding to. The presence of observers is not required in order for ballots to be counted. If a party or candidate designates a certain number of people to be observers, then the presence of those observers can’t be refused. But, again, that wasn’t LC’s statement. That’s all.

                      I actually completely agree that whatever happened that night needs to be investigated, and I look forward to hearing more about this as more comes out.

                    14. Which wasn’t LC’s original statement.

                      So now you’re not arguing that he was wrong, but that it wasn’t his original statement.

                      Moooove those goalposts.

                    15. “But, again, that wasn’t LC’s statement. ”

                      It was his statement at 11:33.

                      “Even if the ballots were not fraudulent ballots, it is against Georgia Election code to count ballots without observers.”

                      This was the statement that was made. It is false

                      That was YOUR stayemt. Notice “original” appears nowhere in there, and that your claim is just an assertion, refuted (potentially) by LC’s 11:33 post. You certainly got nowhere near proving LC’s statement “false.” Potentially false at best.

                      Let it go troll. You tried and failed.

                    16. “bignose” posts just like chemjeff

                    17. So now you’re not arguing that he was wrong, but that it wasn’t his original statement.

                      Oh no, I’m arguing that he was wrong. But I can see that this is a waste of time since you don’t appear to even know what the topic of conversation is. Enjoy your weekend! May your dreams be filled with the images of jihadists incinerating New Yorkers, or whatever other things you fantasize about.

                    18. Oh no, I’m arguing that he was wrong. But I can see that this is a waste of time since you don’t appear to even know what the topic of conversation is.

                      Which wasn’t LC’s original statement.

                      Lol

                    19. >>But, again, that wasn’t LC’s statement. That’s all.

                      The exact moment bignose realized he was wrong.

                    20. Oooh, some useless shit is now impersonating me here.

                    21. Mind you, my last post here, before today, was before noon.

                      Lame, suck-ass troll. Swallow a bullet.

                  3. “I didn’t intend to offer an opinion”

                    Yes you did by citing only a portion of the relevant statute. Best to just pipe down.

                    1. *Yet

                      spell check is an idiot and turns my post into something much more confrontational

                    2. What does the rest of that sentence say, and how does it pertain to any statute whatsoever? Maybe best to just pipe down.

                    3. “What does the rest of that sentence say”

                      Nothing that
                      changes anything.

                      Beat for you just to not to get so upset and pupe down.

                    4. I didn’t intend to offer an opinion on whether all of what happened that night was legitimate

                      There ya go, free of charge. No need to thank me.

                    5. bignose desperately wants to be right about this, so desperately that he’s throwing a tantrum and ignoring posts he doesn’t like

                    6. Hey if you don’t want me to thank you for proving thay what you said changes nothing, I’m happy to oblige.

                    7. ignoring posts he doesn’t like

                      Such as? By all means, if I’ve made a mistake, I’d be happy to be corrected.

                      As for throwing a tantrum, you were hoping for another terrorist attack on a majority Dem city cause your guy lost the election. Stones, glass houses, etc.

                    8. Pointing out that you’re having a tantrum caused you to have a second tantrum.

                    9. Hey if you don’t want me to thank you for proving thay what you said changes nothing, I’m happy to oblige.

                      Not sure what you get out of pretending to be illiterate, but I’m glad you’re enjoying yourself. Enjoy your day/weekend!

                    10. Pointing out that you’re having a tantrum caused you to have a second tantrum.

                      Why troll when there are so many more enjoyable and worthwhile things to do with one’s life? Ah well, go ahead and have the last word.

                    11. Oh ok you were wrong so you decide to be a douchebag you’re that guy.

      3. Huh. I thought they’d go with the explanation that when everybody was sent home, 4 people had to stay behind to tidy up and lock up afterward and that those suitcases were full of cleaning supplies and what look like ballots were in fact over-sized disinfectant wipes.

        1. You have to send the wipes through the scanners to ensure every trace of the virus is eliminated from inside the machines.

          1. using Hillary’s Old Fashioned Server Cloth Wipes?

    2. Saw that. But WE NEED EVIDENCE!

      Crazy.

      When casino managers used to get caught skimming and stealing from the Mafia, they didn’t analyze footage and hold hearings. They looked at the film and went with their natural ‘you scamming me?’ instincts and took care of business.

      Same crap here. Skimming votes all kinds during the election. A series a little frauds that add up to a lot. So it’s harder to ‘prove’ and easier to ‘dismiss’.

      But it’s obvious what happened.

      /lights cigarette. Stares at skimmer.

      Now what to do with you.

      1. The Georgia Secretary of State had a single observer covering the entire floor of State farm arena and witnesses said he was on his cell phone most of the time. They also had a video monitor supposedly.

        The dummy election officials didnt know that State farm Arena cameras would be running. Democrats shit themselves when the Trump campaign introduced that video evidence at the state senate hearing Thursday.

      2. Smash bones in dominate hand then threaten to cut of hand with circular saw if they do it again?

        Bonus: Ask them if they want to keep their hand intact or keep the votes they skimmed.

        1. The question then winds up being whether they’re willing to take one for the team, in hopes that the team will get the best surgeons to put their hands back together.

      3. There was the Michigan postal worker who said ballots were back dated, then was reported to have recanted (thus ending the story), after which he said he had not recanted.

    3. Funny how there’s just no evidence of election fraud whatsoever everywhere election monitors were illegally kicked out, but the one such place with security camera footage just happens to show election fraud. What are the odds?

      1. According to the georgia Democrat state senator present at the hearing, she says she “saw nuthin…nuthin”.

      2. If only they had pizza boxes to cover the windows with so they’re totes legit activity could be shielded from observation

          1. Cannot fathom why some people don’t buy the cleanliness and legitimacy of this election.

    4. Thanks for posting what ENB wouldn’t. Just do a damn audit Georgia.

      1. they already did.

        1. No, they did a recount. NOW they are considering doing a signature audit based on this evidence. Anyone want to take odds the signature audit finds issues? hahaha of course.

          1. I don’t know why the cosplay libertarians don’t understand this. A recount in which the majority of ballots were simply rescanned through the machines. A recount that uncovered thousands of ballots. They still have not verified the machine counted the votes correctly (we have one instance where we know votes switched from Trump to Biden) nor that the signatures and ballots were valid.

  6. Calling your neighbor a “slumlord” on Facebook is constitutionally protected speech…

    Doing so is signaling to the comrades who to line against the wall once the revolution is complete.

  7. James O’Keefe Catches CNN Execs on Tape Talking About Burying Hunter Biden Story
    https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/12/03/288808-n288808

    “Obviously, we’re not going with the New York Post story right now on Hunter Biden and, which seems to be giving its marching orders to Fox News and the right-wing echo chamber about what to talk about today,” CNN political director David Chalian said. “Obviously, Hunter Biden’s lawyer is quoted in that New York Post piece, and we’ll just continue to report out this is the very stuff that the president was impeached over. This is the stuff that Senate committees looked at and found nothing wrong in — Joe Biden’s interactions with Ukrainians — and, now having an email that, perhaps there was a meeting with someone from Burisma is, it seems, Rudy Giuliani’s sort of ‘dream-a-vision’ of how to throw stuff at the wall in these closing days of the campaign.”

    “Hey, Jeff, it’s just David on the Burisma story, and we should be awfully careful about that obviously, but I do think there’s a media story,” CNN Executive VP David Vigilante said. “What in the world are Maggie Haberman and Jake Sherman doing retweeting that story?”

    1. cute CNN thinks Faux is still some kind of enemy

  8. Trump, Biden camps inspect Nevada election office ahead of Thursday hearing on lawsuit

    President Donald Trump’s campaign legal effort to overturn the results of Nevada’s presidential election will be decided Friday, after a Carson City District Court judge said he wanted more time to review the evidence presented.

    Funny that Nevada is even in play to back up Trump’s claims of election fraud.

    1. He needs to flip at least 3 states.
      So far his lawsuits have flipped 0 states.

  9. Footage shows no interaction—and only those in line of air flow got infected.

    Everyone needs to learn to start breathing down.

    1. IN reality there is no way to confirm that that person was the source its possible but also possible that the other people just hadn’t realized they were infected yet.

      1. Korea has been pretty hard-assed about their contact-tracing, so it’s possible that they did confirm it.

    2. and evidence like this against the magic 6 foot distance will just be ignored

  10. Georgia Governor Changes Tune After Trump Lawyers Present Troubling Video of Alleged Fraud
    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/12/03/georgia-governor-calls-for-signature-audit-after-leaked-election-footage-n2581038

    Video footage from Georgia shows suitcases filled with ballots pulled from under a table AFTER supervisors told poll workers to leave room while four people stayed behind to keep counting votes

    1. Not only is counting ballots without observers a violation of Georgia election law but those scanning machines can process 3-4,000 ballots per hour. They had 4-5 scanners running for 2 hours.

      Add in all the other verified claims by polls watchers and the Dominion whistleblower has Fulton county as the clear winner of Georgia election fraud schemes this election.

  11. Biden-Harris Campaign’s Anti-Vaxxer Conspiracy Theory’s Sad Epilogue: 3 Former Presidents Step Up for COVID Vaccine
    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/12/03/the-biden-harris-campaigns-anti-vaxxer-conspiracy-theorys-sad-epilogue-n1187302

    “As we enter the height of election season, President Trump should assure us all that the White House will respect the independent authority of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to decide, free from political pressure, if the vaccine is safe and effective,” Biden said in July.

    Kamala Harris was no better. When asked by CNN’s Dana Bash about a COVID-19 vaccine and whether “the public health experts and the scientists will get the last word” on its efficacy, Kamala responded, “If past is prologue, then they will not. They’ll be muzzled, they’ll be suppressed, they will be sidelined,” without providing any evidence of this. “Because [Trump is] looking at an election coming up in less than sixty days, and he’s grasping for whatever he can get to pretend that he’s been a leader on this issue when he’s not.”

    Their rhetoric resulted in a dramatic drop in public trust in a vaccine. A Morning Consult poll in September showed only 51 percent of Americans were willing to take the vaccine, a 21-point drop from April.

    The only reason three former presidents even have to do such a stunt to promote the safety of a vaccine is that the Democratic Party, led by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, politicized every single aspect of the pandemic, even suggesting, without any evidence, that President Trump could and would push ahead with an unproven vaccine against the advice of countless health experts.

  12. Last chance to ever get it done.

    Is this his concession tweet?

  13. 81% of Black Americans Don’t Want Less Police Presence Despite Protests—Some Want More Cops: Poll
    https://www.newsweek.com/81-black-americans-dont-want-less-police-presence-despite-protestssome-want-more-cops-poll-1523093

    1. Ask them how they feel about taxing guns to hire more police.

      1. You really think most guns in the hood are acquired legally?

        1. or any?

          1. In the cities that don’t make it next to impossible to own one, certainly there are *some* law-abiding citizens who get their guns legally.

  14. Section 230 not terminated and the NDAA vetoed.

    OVERRIDE

    1. https://twitter.com/Boomieleaks/status/1334835413823926272

      Biden wants people to wear masks for 100 days.

      The CNN headline?

      “The President-elect revealed the galvanizing, altruistic, first national rallying call of his administration in a CNN exclusive interview”

      1. Biden and galvanize are oxymoronic.

      2. Wow. Pravda would’ve shaken their head and even Stalin would’ve blushed.

        You Americans are so fucked now. None of your constituitional protections mean shit anymore with your political establishment and media so deep in the tank.

        1. Correct, but this is what the true libertarians wanted

        2. Our Constitution hasn’t mattered for a while. What with our presidents declaring war without authorization, EO ordered taxation, EO bans on legal products, spying on the entire nation. Trump was no savior of the Constitution; he put a couple nails in the proverbial coffin himself.

          1. ^case in point

      3. Huh, where have I heard this “Only _____ days!” song before? It sounds very familiar.

        1. if it didn’t work before then make it not work again only this time subsidize it.

    2. ….yet the bad numbers keep going up.

      I wonder if the masks aren’t super helpful.

      Nah, cannot be that…

    1. What’s really funny is Reason/Media is staying pretty damn quite about a Democrat who is using an obscure House Rule to override the election by taking a vote in the House to keep her seat.

      https://townhall.com/tipsheet/reaganmccarthy/2020/12/03/dem-house-candidate-asks-nancy-pelosi-to-hand-her-a-win-n2580985

      A Democrat congressional candidate in Iowa announced plans to file a petition with the House of Representatives under the Federal Contested Elections Act in order to have the results of her election overturned.

      You would think this would get attention given all the “outrage”

  15. Inside the Brussels Lockdown Sex Party: Love Hearts, Devil’s Tridents and Mattresses All Over
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-brussels-lockdown-sex-party-love-hearts-devils-tridents-and-mattresses-all-over?ref=home

    The doctoral student who hosted a party for more than 20 naked men—including diplomats—in defiance of the COVID lockdown says nurses were present and everyone was tested.

    1. Anti-LGBTQ Lawmaker Quits After Busting Lockdown at Sex Party in Brussels
      https://www.thedailybeast.com/brussels-lockdown-orgy-busted-by-cops-european-lawmaker-and-diplomats-flee

      Jozsef Szajer, a member of Victor Orban’s far-right Hungarian party, was caught busting strict lockdown rules in Brussels to take part in an alleged group sex party.

      1. Was that wrong?

        1. Password: Fideglio.

          1. I am sure that is humorous, but based on the context, I am not looking that up.

        2. is that kind of thing frowned upon here?

    2. Tony would’ve worn a mask.

    3. Getting de-sanitized after one of those things should probably be SOP anyway.

  16. DNI John Ratcliffe: China Is Using Blackmail, Covert Influence to Target Members of Congress

    I have been assured that Communist China is only interested in trading with the USA. Nothing nefarious to see there. Nevermind that Communist China has over 50 amphibious ships capable of carrying thousands of troops and tons of equipment to Taiwan or other East Asian countries that are NOT China.

    1. According to the totally unbiased US submarine service, there are two things in the oceans of the world; US submarines, and targets.

      1. +100000

        Communist China also has a very large destroyer fleet now too.

        Those man made Chinese islands in the South China Sea are there for multiple reasons and one is probably for their version of SOSUS.

        1. My dad and my brother were both submariners. The Chinese are not ready to take those guys on yet. Run silent, run deep!

          1. China can probably build ships faster than we can sink them

            1. Hopefully we can build torpedoes faster than the Commies can build ships.

    2. It’s not blackmail, it’s access funding. There’s nothing they are doing here that they haven’t done since the Clintons gave them military tech in exchange for campaign funding.

  17. “In its most restrictive zones, the state prohibits indoor gatherings at movie theaters, restaurants, museums and other large spaces, as well as worship services.”

    Yeah, the First Amendment isn’t all about religion. On the other hand, those restrictions all seem to violate other provisions of the First Amendment, too.

    “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

    —-First Amendment

    Prohibiting indoor gatherings at move theaters and museums, for instance, would seem to violate both freedom of speech and the right to peaceably assemble.

    1. Yeah, so?
      As the far right nuts have been saying for years, after the fascists gut the second amendment, they will move on the te rest of the constitution.
      First it was the second, then the fourth, now the first.

      Welcome to the revolution; we lost.

      1. We haven’t lost yet.

        If the Republicans lose in Georgia, we’re doomed.

        1. Democrats dont have a good track record of winning recounts in Georgia in the last 40 years.

          Author: 11Alive Staff
          Published: 7:31 AM EST December 4, 2020
          Updated: 9:52 AM EST December 4, 2020
          ATLANTA — Georgia’s recount is, but for a hiccup in Fulton County, just about complete – and increasingly that formality is taking a backseat to the political and legal drama as President Trump’s advocates continue down a path of attempting to invalidate the election.

          All indications are that once Fulton County’s issue involving roughly 4,000 ballots that needed to be re-scanned is resolved, the recount will be over. Current results show Joe Biden with a lead consistent with his original margin, which was also confirmed by the hand-count audit. The Secretary of State’s website lists 145 out of 159 counties as having certified their results (though the site hasn’t updated since 5 p.m. yesterday evening.)
          Watch live | Fulton County Board of Elections to certify recount results

          Notice the media always knows the results before they are officially released.

        2. If the sham election holds up and they oust Trump, which is likely because all of our institutions are corrupt as hell, we’re doomed.
          Praying for a R senate and SCOTUS to save you is a fool’s errand.

        3. If the Republicans lose in Georgia, we’re doomed.

          You should feel confident about Georgia. In the general, Green Party was off the ballot and the libertarian candidate set the record for most votes for a 3rd party senate candidate in Georgia history with over 110K votes

          If the theory is correct that libertarian voters lean R, the runoff should be a breeze for the Rs in this one as they will pick up a lot of formerly libertarian voters. The Ds don’t have that dynamic with the Green party this time because there were no green party votes.

          1. Unless you go by the claim by some affidavits that trump votes were switched to L by vote counters. If they are that brazen how can you trust an election?

    2. A new study from South Korea provides more information about COVID-19 spread in indoor spaces:

      They’re really going all-out right now to convince people that restaurants are significant outbreak sources of COVID, to try and scare people into staying indoors in order to justify their lockdowns. Yahoo had an article with the breathless headline “Almost All COVID Transmission Is Happening in These 5 Places, Doctor Says,” listing restaurants, bars, hotels, and churches as the main drivers of COVID infection.

      These Lying-Ass Dogs know that if people actually investigated the data, they’d know that the vast majority of new outbreaks continue to be in nursing homes, prisons and, in the last 2.5 months, schools. There’s no evidence–none whatsoever–that social gathering places are driving these outbreaks. And the reports from the states’ own health departments confirms it, when they’ve even bothered to track those numbers.

      These “journalists” are really working overtime to show that they deserve a punch in the head.

      1. But we can totes trust their election coverage, because their results confirm our petty prejudices.

  18. Goodbye, U.S.D.A., Hello, Department of Food and Well-Being
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/opinion/usda-agriculture-secretary-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    The secretary of agriculture should lead the fight against corporations that have created a toxic food environment and support groups building healthful alternatives. The secretary should champion unity among farmers, rural people and urban advocates for racial and economic justice against the common enemy of consolidation and concentration of wealth. And the secretary should use the department’s vaunted research and extension capacity to support a food system that can rebuild rural economies, regenerate ecological capital, mitigate climate change and provide nourishing food for all.

    While we’re at it, we might as well change the department’s name from its archaic, misleading misnomer to something that reflects the country’s needs: a Department of Food and Well Being.

    1. Ministry of Health has a nice ring to it….

      1. The Cola Wars of the late 20s are going to be gang wars. The MoH will require armed agents.

  19. https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1334686548122591235

    Joe Biden is asked about his disagreements with Kamala Harris on certain issues:

    “Like I told Barack, if I reach something where there’s a fundamental disagreement we have based on a moral principle, I’ll develop some disease and say I have to resign.”

    1. Yeah I heard that, lol. I love my grandpa Joe!

      1. I’ve seen the way he kisses his granddaughter, so I don’t doubt it.

        https://duckduckgo.com/?q=biden+kisses+granddaughter&t=h_&iax=images&ia=images

  20. Politician named Adolf Hitler wins election in Namibia
    https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1334589189959151618

  21. I’m going to a local Chinese place for lunch, then Walmart and Menard’s and picking up some whiskey on the way back for this cold, dark winter. Gotta have the essentials.

    1. Just be sure you don’t go to church!

  22. In the Wednesday AM links Nardz asked for another analysis, focusing on “inconsistent ratio of B vs T mail in votes in ONLY pivotal states, outliers that swung the election”.

    For this I am still using data from the US Election Project data on early voting. It is the most complete, centralized location of mail-in ballot data I’ve been able to find so far. As always, please feel free to check my numbers and/or point me to a more complete data set.
    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    First, some caveats. I was not able to find numbers on mail-in ballots cast for Biden or Trump. All I was able to find were numbers on mail-in ballots requested and returned by party affiliation, so I will have to use that as a proxy. But not all states even report a breakdown by party affiliation — some just report totals with no further breakdown. I wish I had better data. Let’s add that to a list of improvements to our electoral system I hope we can all agree on. Having said that, here are the 20 states included in my analysis: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, ID (but data are only reported for one county!?), IA, KS, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OK, OR, PA, SD.

    First, the spread in the percentage points of Democrat vs Republican returned mail-in ballots:
    Mean: 18.8
    Median: 17.1
    Standard deviation: 17.29
    Min: -11.7 (negative indicates more R than D)
    Max: 54.1

    Here are the numbers for the swing states for which there are data. The numbers in parentheses are the number of standard deviations from the mean, with negative meaning below the mean, i.e. more Republican than on average:
    AZ: 0.4 (-1.1)
    FL: 14.2 (-0.3)
    NV: 22.4 (0.2)
    NC: 24.3 (0.3)
    PA: 41.0 (1.3)

    AZ has the smallest spread of the swing states, i.e. mail-in ballots were more evenly split between R and D than the national average, which actually makes it an outlier. PA also is an outlier in the other direction: more of a spread between D and R than the national average. Are these major outliers? I think that depends on your priors. If you had some reason to think that this spread should follow a normal/Gaussian/bell-shaped distribution then 1 standard deviation from the mean is definitely not a big outlier. But I don’t know what sort of distribution to expect.

    Looking beyond swing states, the largest spread of any state is Maryland (D-R = 54). Some other states with large spreads are CA (26.5), CT (31.6), KY (38.4), ME (23.6), NM (39.6).

    And here are all the states that deviate by more than 1 standard deviation from the mean.
    AZ: -1.1
    ID: -1.1
    KY: 1.1
    NE: -1.5
    NM: 1.2
    PA: 1.3
    SD: -1.8

    These are returned mail-in ballots, but we also have access to requested mail-in ballot numbers by party in all of these states, except KY. Here are the numbers for the spread in percentage points of requested mail-in ballots by party affiliation (again, positive means more Democrats, negative means more Republicans):
    Mean: 15.7
    Median: 12.6
    Standard deviation: 17.3
    Min: -13.9
    Max: 12.6

    And for swing states (same format as above)
    AZ: -0.93 (-1.0)
    FL: 13.5 (-0.1)
    NV: 5.6 (-0.6)
    NC: 26.16 (0.6)
    PA: 37.45 (1.3)

    If you are curious, nationally about 50% of requested mail-in ballots were returned by Democrats and about 30% by Republicans.

    The spread in returned mail-in ballots is usually pretty close to the spread in requested mail-in ballots. Here is that ratio (D-R Returned/D-R Requested) for swing states. A value of one here means that the spread in returned ballots is equal to the spread in requested ballots (or, to put it differently, the return rates are the same).
    AZ: -0.42
    FL: 1.05
    NV: 4.0
    NC: 0.9
    PA: 1.1

    So in AZ the spread in returned mail-in ballots favors Republicans compared to what you would expect from the spread in requested mail-in ballots, in NV it favors Democrats, and in the other states it follows expectations, again, given the difference in requested mail-in ballots. I will admit that the ratio in NV is large, and is probably the biggest outlying number I’ve found so far.

    1. Next, it occurred to me when doing this that these numbers really should be normalized in some way by the number of registered Democrats and Republicans. If state X has 60% registered R and 40% registered D, and both groups returned mail-in ballots at equal rates. Then you’d very naturally get a 20 point spread. If Republicans were for some reason more likely to return mail-in ballots, then you’d probably expect an even larger spread.

      Unfortunately, I am yet again wishing for more and better data. I wasn’t able to find a centralized database of 2020 registration data by party. The best I found was from the UVA Center for Politics and comes from 2018. And not all states are included. So, I would caution against putting too much stock in this particular analysis, but if you think these numbers won’t have shifted too much in two years then maybe they can still be useful.
      https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/

      What I report here is (D-R returned ballot %) – (D-R registered voters %). So a negative number means Republicans returned ballots at a greater rate than you would expect from the registration data, and positive means the same for Democrats. Zero means the spread is exactly what you would expect if Democrats and Republicans returned mail-in ballots at equal rates, given the number of people registered as such in each state. Here are the results:

      Mean: 16.6
      Median: 15.6
      Standard deviation: 13.9
      Min: -11
      Max: 49

      Here are the swing states (same notation as above)
      AZ: 5.4 (-0.8)
      FL: 12.2 (-0.3)
      NV: 18.4 (0.1)
      NC: 16.3 (-0.02)
      PA: 31.0 (1.0)

      And here are the states that fall more than one standard deviation from the mean.
      ID: 1.8
      NJ: -1.0
      OR: -1.0
      PA: 1.0

      Some observations: Taking the registration data into account makes these swing states fall closer to the mean, but it doesn’t change things by that much. Also, Democrats returned mail-in ballots at a much higher rate than Republicans nationally. This has been discussed extensively and was expected. But in AZ and FL Republicans used mail-in ballots more than the national average. Democrats still returned ballots at a higher rate than Republicans (though in AZ it’s almost equal), but the spread was less than you’d expect from just the registration data.

      If someone wants to run the adjusted analysis on requested ballots go for it, but I don’t think it’s going to offer much more insight.

      So, what conclusions do we draw? Nardz asked if there was an “inconsistent ratio of B vs T mail in votes in ONLY pivotal states”. I don’t believe the data support that conclusion. In the numbers I’ve looked at, FL and NC are all pretty close to the national averages. AZ and PA deviate the most among swing states, but in different directions: AZ Republicans made better use of mail-in ballots than Republicans in other states, while in PA Democrats made better use of mail-in ballots than Democrats in other states. But neither falls many standard deviations from the mean, and we see either similar spreads in absolute terms, or similar deviation from the national average, in the non-swing states of CA, CT, ID, KY, ME, NJ, NM, OR, and SD (though I suppose you could consider New Mexico a swing state). Including PA and AZ, that’s 11 out of 20 states analyzed, or over 50%. If the spread in mail-in ballots going for Biden vs Trump is the thing that makes you think there was fraud, then you probably should be investigating all these states (and some are Republican/Trump strongholds). Since in most states (NV excepted) the trends in returned ballots are similar to the trends in requested ballots, it is probably better to focus on the processes for requesting ballots, rather than the process for counting them.

      In the end, nothing really jumps out at me as that abnormal, especially considering that way that attitudes towards the use of mail-in ballots and COVID breakdown along party lines. But, I will admit that I have pretty strong priors against fraud, so I can understand why someone might be suspicious if they have stronger priors that there was fraud. But given those priors, I think we should strive for consistency.

      I’ll close by saying that I welcome recounts, audits, and proper legal investigations, as long as they adhere to the same standards as we would ask for if Trump won. I want the electoral process to be scrutinized, both because I want the candidate who won to do so lawfully, and because I want people to trust the electoral system.

      And as always, questions, corrections, and additional data are welcome.

      Thoughts?

      1. You should charge for this.

        1. I have a problem.

          1. You and people like you are the reason why we have nice things.

        2. Except he again dodged the issue.
          I asked for margin of T vs B votes, not fucking party data.

          1. And according to him, TvB data is not available from that source, only party data. That’s not dodging the issue, dude’s been pretty transparent about this whole thing from the start.

            But hey, maybe you have a reliable and complete source of mail-in votes by Presidential candidate that he could use?

            1. We should hang out sometime.

              1. Fuck’s sake, man, Dominion is gonna stop paying us if you blow our cover like this.

                1. Well, it *sounded* plausible until you said that, bignose.

          2. I can’t find the breakdown by candidate. I addressed that directly in the very first part of the post, so “dodging” doesn’t seem like a fair description to me.

            I also offered to redo the analysis if you can point me to the data.

            You seem to believe that the margin of T vs B is suspicious. I presume, therefore, that you have actually seen those numbers. So, can you point me to them?

        3. Bite your tongue, Rufus.

      2. It might be interesting, if the data are available, to run the same analysis with a few more elections and see how these numbers compare.

        1. I’m willing to do that if someone can point me to the data, but I’m not sure how useful it would be. The use of mail-in ballots in this election is unlike any other because of COVID. It wouldn’t be an apples to apples comparison. Maybe someone could try to correct for this in some complicated regression, but I’m skeptical when those techniques are applied in econometrics and other social sciences. And it’s certainly beyond my capacity in terms of time and expertise.

          1. Explain away this analysis again which you grossly misrepresented.

            https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020

            The code and sources of data for the analysis are available. You lied about what this abyss was. Why?

            1. I already did that in this comment from Wednesday.
              https://reason.com/2020/12/02/medical-marijuana-gets-the-greenlight-from-the-united-nations/#comment-8614706

              I’ll copy and paste the relevant parts here. Instead of falsely accusing me of lying, can you respond to the what I am actually saying?

              I did no such thing. I pointed out, correctly, that the two different analyses are working with the same data set, which is data scraped from the NYT website, which was provided by Edison Research, and was formatted for use in graphical display on the NYT website. I correctly pointed out that the data set reports updated total votes and updated fractional total share of those votes for Biden and Trump. I correctly pointed out that both analyses you refer to derived the actual number of votes for Biden and Trump by multiplying the total number of votes by the fractional vote share. I correctly pointed out that the fractional vote share is only reported to three significant digits, and that the derived votes for Biden and Trump are therefore inherently imprecise, and therefore not well suited to precision data analysis. I invited anyone who doesn’t believe these statements to download the data and reproduce both analyses for themselves, as I did.

              I then pointed out that even accepting the second analysis you refer to, their Figure 10 makes it seem like the outlier points they identify are not actually outliers when looked at in terms of the whole country. I speculated that they are detecting two well known and unsurprising facts: that urban centers have large populations, and that urban centers skew more heavily towards Democrats. When combined, this makes urban centers stand out for having a large absolute margin for Joe Biden their x-axes)and for having a large ratio of Biden votes to Trump votes (their y-axes), especially when considering updates that primarily reported the results of mail-in ballots (which the supposedly outlying updates mostly did), since they are known to have skewed even more heavily towards Democrats. Since most states have a small number of large urban centers (in some cases, only one), these updates look extreme in the context of any individual state. But when shown for the country of a whole, which has more of a smooth continuum of small to large population centers, the results look less like outliers and more like points within that continuum. This is how I interpret their Figure 10.

              I admit that the last paragraph is speculation on my part, though I think it is reasonable, and I welcome a rebuttal of the argument I presented.

              1. Shouldn’t you be showing the trend in your analysis? That is important context. I would want to see the trend data for the last 6 elections. That is really how the data ought to be presented, IMO. The question will be….are what we see very different from past elections?

                Next, the standard deviations you show are pretty big compared to the mean. Which state(s) are pulling that? There will only be a few.

                Last, there has been some discussion of rejection rates. The decline in rejection rates alone could explain how Biden could have won the swing states. The question is….why the precipitous decline?

                Nifty piece of analysis you have been posting. I have been following along since Wednesday. It is helpful to clarify what are the right questions to ask.

                1. Thanks. As I’ve said before, finding good data on this stuff is tough. Going back six elections — I don’t even know where to start looking.

                  But as I said above, I fully expect 2020 to be an outlier due to COVID and, to a lesser extent, the unique enthusiasm both for and against Trump. How would you control for those when comparing past elections? I suppose someone could try some fancy regression, but that honestly sounds like a whole PhD thesis. I’ve done that once and don’t particularly want to do it again. And I don’t even know if I would believe any such analysis — those types of complex regressions and the issues surrounding them play no small part in the replication crisis in the social sciences.

                  Regarding rejection rates, I talked about that on Wednesday. There is even less data on those (I think it was five states?). It is down across the board. I speculated that it was perhaps due to better voter education and different characteristics of the people casting mail-in ballots this time compared to last, but still worth looking into.

                  Finally, here is the D-R spread for the states for which I have data. You are right that there is a lot of scatter. Numbers really are all over the place.

                  AZ 0.39
                  CA 26.49
                  CO 4.30
                  CT 31.60
                  FL 14.22
                  IA 11.78
                  KS 9.75
                  KY 38.41
                  ME 23.55
                  MD 54.10
                  NE -7.52
                  NV 22.43
                  NJ 17.11
                  NM 39.58
                  NC 24.26
                  OK 5.88
                  OR 12.41
                  PA 41.03
                  SD -11.71

                  1. I understand = As I’ve said before, finding good data on this stuff is tough. Going back six elections — I don’t even know where to start looking. Personally, I think those databases are probably being thought out and built now. I will say that the ‘meta trend’ I see is a lot of anomalies benefit VP Biden (lower rejection rate, mail in balloting, lack of voter verification, some really odd district results (North Korea-like numbers for Biden, etc, etc). Is that by happenstance, or design. Time will tell.

                    How would you control for those when comparing past elections? Answer: There is no perfect control. The closest analogue we have, historically, are the elections of 1818, 1820, and 1918, 1920 (cholera, spanish flu). And in any analysis, the results have to make sense in the total context.

                    Yes, the scatter is very high. That is what is so….odd. Really a shame that we do not have MI, WI, and GA data. Because when I see Pennsylvania’s value (41), I have a feeling what I might see in those other three states I mentioned.

                    We will not have ‘the’ answer by December 14. It will take some time, meaning years, to get ‘the’ answer on what actually happened in this last election. But as I said before, the data analysis tells us what questions to ask, and there is merit in that.

    2. Why should anyone listen to you when you refused to acknowledge independent ballot trials from the abyss i posted. You lied about having read the analysis. It was much deeper than the facial analysis you apply here. You were caught with a complete misunderstanding of the outlier analysis. And you lied about it.

      1. Why should anyone listen to you

        No one has to. I provide links to all my data sources and try to explain my analyses in sufficient detail for anyone to reproduce it. I’m always happy to answer questions if something isn’t clear, and to accept constructive criticism. I try to make clear when I stop reporting statistics and start opining on how to interpret them, and people can decide for themselves whether those interpretations are reasonable.

  23. https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/1334580073328873475

    Libs in the replies praising a Chinese state account for calling a US Senator a bitch is some next level gamesmanship.

    1. All hail China! China is the best! China is so pretty! China, China, China. We’re talking dishes, right.

      1. They have the best food. I welcome our Chinese overlords if it means that Chinese food will be even more ubiquitous.

        1. I’ve been to China 4 times for work purposes. Beijing once, Kunming once, and Guizhou province twice. The food in Beijing that we had was meh. The food in Kunming and Guizhou was soooooooooooo good.

          On my first trip to Guizhou most of the food was just made by some local women with local ingredients, mostly for construction workers. I have no idea what it all was, but my God. There were these spicy peppers that were so full of flavor. Woo.

          On my last trip, our hosts took us to some restaurant in Guiyang. We had soup made with snakehead fish. It was fresh. I know this because one of our hosts pointed to a fish in a tank, they scooped it out with a net, took it to a counter, beat it over the head twice, and 20 minutes later we had some of the best damn fish soup I’ve ever had.

          I like Chinese people, Chinese culture, and Chinese food.

          But fuck the Chinese Communist Party.

  24. https://twitter.com/InStyle/status/1329409129413132288

    For a special cover, former President Barack Obama reflects on the most influential women in his life and his new memoir, A Promised Land.

    Oh, and do you recognize that jacket? (Hint: It’s the same one he sunk a three-pointer in two weeks ago).

    1. Cripes he looks smug there.

      1. When doesn’t he look smug or condescending?

  25. https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1334729222963793921

    In light of the multiple crises Biden is inheriting,
    @JakeTapper
    asked, “what does it feel like… what’s the emotion that goes through you?” The first words out of Biden’s mouth were “I’m determined.”

  26. https://twitter.com/c5hardtop1999/status/1334828617923170304

    Game over! Here is the signature voter fraud spike, correlated with the State Farm Arena video. BOOM!

    1. Wow.

  27. https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1334707562042839041

    BREAKING: Georgia Gov. Kemp calls for ‘signature audit’ after new surveillance video uncovered today shows apparent tabulation cover-up.

    “The Secretary of State, per the laws & constitution, would have to order that…”

    “In the next 24 hours, hopefully we will see a lot more.”

    1. Is anyone in the MSM covering this? Would love to see similar video for WI and MI and they’re late night shenanigans.

  28. President-Elect Biden continues to do what billionaires want him to do.

    Reason.com’s benefactor Charles Koch earned $155,000,000 yesterday.

    Keep in mind this is just the result of the market’s positive reaction to Biden’s historic landslide victory. After he takes office, things will be even better for Mr. Koch when Biden liberates Drumpf’s concentration camps and allows all those highly-skilled Mexican laborers into the country so they can work for Koch Industries.

    #GetReadyForTheKochComeback

  29. We can’t get the troops home from the near east, since, well,…

    “EXPLAINER: How could US drawdown in Iraq aid IS, Iran?”
    https://apnews.com/article/iraq-iran-islamic-state-group-coronavirus-pandemic-us-news-72a65818e96586e5b163855abef5968d

    Screw the lot of them; if they can’t defend themselves, tough shit. Bring ’em home NOW.

    1. Yep

  30. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/matt-taibbi-dont-trust-news

    The five media behemoths who own more than 90% of all US media outlets (Comcast, Viacom, Disney, Time Warner, Newscorp) have discovered that it’s much more profitable to focus on discrete audience segments and give them the information they want to hear.

    Which is why the time-honored approach of “just the facts” reporting to a general audience has practically disappeared. There’s less money in it, so it’s just not pursued anymore.

    So we’re now served a steady diet of intentionally-biased outrage and pablum, with opinions replacing facts, and any intellectually “triggering” content quickly gunned down by today’s trigger-happy censors.

    It’s no wonder that a recent Gallup poll revealed that the majority of Americans no longer trust the US media to report accurately or fairly.

    This is a huge social challenge. In such a world, where can one turn for objective information? And what are the consequences of creating such a poorly-informed populace?

    1. Turning from a high trust society to a low trust one in the span of a single generation is definitely a bad sign.

      As someone generally interested in things, I find it highly disturbing that there is literally no source of information that can be trusted as accurate. Everything is put through a series of ideological filters before it ever reaches my eyes/ears. I expect that from politicians. We all deserve better from the media.

      Unfortunately the only proper response is to do everything possible to see newsrooms across the nation burned to the ground. This feeling of utter mistrust in all of our news sources is really, really bad in an open society.

  31. https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/victoria-taft/2020/12/03/exclusive-oregon-gave-antifa-your-cares-act-covid-relief-tax-dollars-during-the-riots-wait-it-gets-worse-n1034431

    That which is rewarded is repeated. Apparently, the State of Oregon wants more antifa and Black Lives Matter rioting. At at time when violent rioters were setting fires, looting, and terrorizing the people of Portland, they were rewarded with U.S. CARES Act COVID relief funds.

    Repeating: When Portland was burning, the state of Oregon gave the arsonists gasoline.

    The group “SNACK BLOC” that received CARES ACT money designed to help people in need – or so we thought – is unabashedly antifa and BLM. It’s not even a semantical close call. Oregon’s Health Authority gave money to a group that came out of the shadows to support antifa and riots.

    I say out of the shadows because according to Willamette Week, the loosely formed “group” supposedly existed for three years, but has no webpage, and just started a Twitter account timed to the beginning of Portland’s 100-plus days of non-stop rioting.

  32. “California Churches Stuck in Limbo After Supreme Court Decision”

    Actually no. They still have the Bible, and their faith will now be demonstrated for all to see.

    Hebrews 10:25
    “5 Not forsaking the assembling of ourselves together, as the manner of some is; but exhorting one another: and so much the more, as ye see the day approaching.”

    Context:
    21 And having an high priest over the house of God;
    22 Let us draw near with a true heart in full assurance of faith, having our hearts sprinkled from an evil conscience, and our bodies washed with pure water.
    23 Let us hold fast the profession of our faith without wavering; (for he is faithful that promised;)
    24 And let us consider one another to provoke unto love and to good works:
    25 Not forsaking the assembling of ourselves together, as the manner of some is; but exhorting one another: and so much the more, as ye see the day approaching.

  33. Which differs from the mentally handicapped forced to write for Reason?

    https://twitter.com/tracybeanz/status/1334651632110489601
    BREAKING: Minnesota Witness: Mentally Handicapped Individuals Forced to Vote for Biden

    1. Moonbat journalist (waving badge in the air): Outta my way! MHI here. MHI!

  34. Trump was too transparent. We can’t have a POTUS speak directly to the voters, especially one who can’t remember the first part of the sentence he’s trying to finish. Let’s get some swamp critters:

    “Joe Biden names all-women White House communication team led by Jen Psaki as press secretary”
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/29/joe-biden-names-white-house-communications-team-led-jen-psaki/6459436002/

    Her hair probably smelled good.

    1. That’s gonna be one naggy place.

      ‘We will send special forces in and….shoot I forgot to put the casserole in the fridge!’

      Speaking of all-women, when does Vanderbilt switch to an all-girl football squad. I mean, it’s not like they can do any worse than the guys, amirite?’

      I gotta say. I’ve seen some cynical woke shit over the last few years but this Sarah Fuller one. Man, that’s a doozy. When I saw that kick I damn full broke out laughing.

      ESPN: Perfectly executed kick.

      Gaslighting is a pure art form now.

      1. A kick as perfect as the last election.

        1. I gotta say. I’ve seen some cynical woke shit over the last few years but this Sarah Fuller one. Man, that’s a doozy. When I saw that kick I damn full broke out laughing.

          ESPN: Perfectly executed kick.

          No way in Hell their male punter couldn’t have done better and would have been available to make a tackle. Hell, I’d bet they deliberately had her squib it to make sure there was no return where she would have been legitimately blocked as a potential tackler.

          1. I don’t even think she participated in coverage.

            For obvious reason. Could you imagine her getting pummelled by a kick off returner heading for the end zone? The headlines would ruin that poor kid.

      2. And sadly, her amazing soccer career will now be ignored; replaced by a sorry 30 yard squib.

        1. FOX rolled out primetime MLS yesterday. Seven people tuned in.

    2. It’s nice to know that USA Today and Biden both think the fact that they’re all women is the most important thing to know about them. And kudos to whomever wrote Biden’s statement for making sure to include the all-important diversity buzzword – we wouldn’t want to fail to include the easy spaces on the bingo board.

  35. > I will VETO!

    Said by the the guy who has had the fewest number of vetoes this century AND the last.

    1. You know, if you’re going to sling bullshit, it would help to wait a few days so it’s harder to locate the subsequent debunking.

      mad.casual
      December.3.2020 at 12:21 pm
      Oh wait, Trump has had fewer vetoes than any president since… Harding.

      WTHF? That’s not even remotely correct. He vetoed the fewest number of bills since Obama, who had the fewest number of vetoes since Fillmore. It’s wrong to the point that I don’t think you know what the word ‘veto’ means or how the government works.

      1. >>if you’re going to sling bullshit

        lacks subtlety too. zzzzzzzz

  36. https://twitter.com/KenWebsterII/status/1334874404321423363

    So Joe Biden took his clothes off and chased a dog around the shower before eventually pulling on it’s “Tail” and tripping.

    Does this story sound more believable than my theory that he actually had a seizure?

  37. Objective Science, ladies and gentlemen

    Neoliberal economics, planetary health, and the COVID-19 pandemic: a Marxist ecofeminist analysis
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30252-7/fulltext

    Planetary health sees neoliberal capitalism as a key mediator of socioecological crises, a position that is echoed in much COVID-19 commentary. In this Personal View, I set out an economic theory that emphasises some of the ways in which neoliberal capitalism’s conceptualisation of value has mediated responses to COVID-19. Using the intersection of ecological, feminist, and Marxist economics, I develop an analysis of neoliberal capitalism as a specific historical form of the economy. I identify the accumulation of exchange value as a central tendency of neoliberal capitalism and argue that this tendency creates barriers to the production of other forms of value. I then analyse the implications of this tendency in the context of responses to COVID-19. I argue that resources and labour flow to the production of exchange value, at the expense of production of other value forms. Consequently, the global capitalist economy has unprecedented productive capacity but uses little of this capacity to create the conditions that improve and maintain people’s health. To be more resilient to coming crises, academics, policy makers, and activists should do theoretical work that enables global economies to recognise multiple forms of value and political work that embeds these theories in societal institutions.

    1. Credited to A. Sokal, right?

  38. Koreans believe in fan death. Are they a credible source on air circulation?

  39. ‘Staggering’ surge in violent carjackings continues across Minneapolis
    Such attacks were up 537% compared with last November, worrying residents.
    https://www.startribune.com/staggering-surge-in-violent-carjackings-continues-citywide/573257391/

    1. Ha! Goddamed priceless!

  40. GA just voted 3-2 ,to one again, to recertify Biden as the winner. The Trump cult are in GA now, coming from my state of FL….LOL
    READ MORE

  41. Whelp you voted for democrats and you got a police state instead. That’s on you.

    1. What do you mean INSTEAD?
      Read the platform they ran on – – – – – – – –

      1. You’re winning the internet today, LTBF. If you keep saying intelligent things like this, they’re going to have to replace you with a parody account or somebody’s sock.

  42. The governor’s website says that “places of worship” throughout the state can “allow outdoor services only” if they are in a region that drops below 15 percent intensive-care-unit capacity. “In short, all houses of worship [in those areas] will be shut down,” notes Volokh Conspiracy blogger Josh Blackman, while “shopping malls stay open at 20 percent capacity.”

    15 and 20 are nice numbers. Show me the Science.

    1. Read everything ever posted on Twitter and/or Facebook.

      1. Yep. Everyone knows that only experts are allowed to post on Facebook and Twitter.

  43. The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote today on the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which would (among other things) decriminalize marijuana at the federal level.

    Wow! It’s obviously just a matter of weeks before MJ is “legal” and being taxed to support the COVID bailouts!

  44. “In short, all houses of worship [in those areas] will be shut down,” notes Volokh Conspiracy blogger Josh Blackman, while “shopping malls stay open at 20 percent capacity.”

    The right to consume shall not be infringed….

  45. >>The fate of California church services is now in limbo.

    not really. just fucking goto church. fill the pews! make them arrest you for going.to.church.

    1. In the case of my church (a small one to be sure), not a single worshiper has been arrested; no dogs have been shot.
      We meet every week. Several members with serious health issues no longer attend in person, but can watch on Facebook. We set the chairs 6 feet apart, and family groups sometimes slide them together, sometimes not. We observe communion weekly; the preparation is done wearing gloves, and the Pastor uses hand sanitizer after the ritual washing.
      As I often explained to my children, the only hard part about being a Christian is that you have to do it ALL the time.

      1. ya “how they worshipped in Roman times” maybe needs revisiting.

  46. Durham appointed special counsel.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/barrs-appointment-special-counsel-leaves-biden-and-democrats-muddle

    Under the Justice Department regulations, Barr had to find (and Durham apparently agreed) that there is need for additional criminal investigation and “[t]hat investigation or prosecution of that person or matter by a United States Attorney’s Office or litigating Division of the Department of Justice would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances.” He must also find the appointment in the public interest.
    Notably, the investigation of Clinesmith is effectively completed. So, what is the criminal investigation and what is the conflict? Presumably, the conflict is not in the current administration since it would have required an earlier appointment. The conflict would seem to be found in the upcoming Biden administration.

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  47. As I suspected all along, airborne virus is airborne, and 6 foot magic distance is irrelevant. Cases spike in winter in cold climates (when heat is running) and in summer in warm climates (when AC is running).

  48. My Boy pal makes $seventy five/hour at the internet. She has been without a assignment for six months however remaining month her pay have become $16453 genuinely working at the internet for some hours. open this link……. Here is More information.

    1. Anyone know if this is for online English tutoring, or for filling in GA runoff ballots?

  49. This shouldn’t be this hard…(if warranted by the best available science) put restrictions/requirements on behaviors – not organizations/institutions.

  50. Again, it’s Sunday morning and I have to wonder why the trolls are here rather than in church?

    Are they afraid of the COVID? Or will they finally admit they’ve replaced Christ with trump?
    READ MORE

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