Election 2020

Democrats' Crumbling Hopes of a Blue Wave Make Divided Government More Likely

A GOP Senate could act as a powerful check on a Biden administration.


As the final votes continue to be tallied in elections across the country, Democrats are likely to keep their House majority, though hopes of surpassing the GOP in the Senate dimmed on election night as several key Democrat-leaning toss-up races were either called for or led by incumbent Republicans. Such results could set the scene for a divided government, with the Senate acting as a powerful check on a Joe Biden administration should he win the presidency.

In one swing race, Sen. Joni Ernst (R–Iowa) handily bested her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, earning 52 percent of the vote to Greenfield's 45 percent. Ernst had been down consistently in the polls, though she came out on top in a final survey before election night. In the presidential race, the state went for Donald Trump.

Perhaps more surprisingly, Sen. Susan Collins (R–Maine) defeated Democrat Sara Gideon in a win that was called Wednesday afternoon. And though the victor of the North Carolina Senate race is yet to be determined, Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican, has a two percentage point lead over Democrat Cal Cunningham.

To some degree, Collins's win and Tillis's likely victory are an indictment of the polling strategy: Virtually every poll showed the two behind their competitors, as if their losses were a foregone conclusion.

Democrats were able, however, to flip two Senate seats: Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper took a seat from Sen. Cory Gardner (R–Colo.), and Mark Kelly bested Sen. Martha McSally (R–Ariz.) for her seat in Arizona.

In Alabama, Republican Tommy Tuberville defeated Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat, flipping one of the state's Senate seats back to red, as was expected.

Long shot goals for Democrats included wins in South Carolina and Kentucky, though Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell both won out over their challengers early in the evening. Sen. Steve Daines, a Republican, claimed victory in Montana, pushing back a bid from Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. The fate of the Georgia race between Republican Sen. David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is unclear, though as of this writing Perdue holds a 4-point lead. 

If the toss-up races continue to trend in the current direction, Republicans would secure a 52–48 majority—one seat fewer than they currently have, but a majority nonetheless.

Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump has been able to claim victory. On Wednesday afternoon, Biden was up in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada with a chunk of mail-in ballots yet to be counted, which typically tilt in favor of Democrats. If Biden ekes out a win, a GOP Senate potentially provides a better outcome than what much of the chattering class predicted: that Biden would enter the Oval Office with a Democratic Senate and House in tow, allowing him unfettered ability to fulfill his full list of $11 trillion campaign promises.

NEXT: Pro-Trump Latinos Now Being Exiled From the Progressive Coalition

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  1. Sorry for you suckers that donated to the McGrath campaign

    1. Wow Hurrah.! Trump won again with an amazing victory in the US elections 2020.The Press confrnrce held recently and Joe Biden says that he never…Read More

    2. No shit.

      They poured millions upon millions of dollars in to that race like they ever had a chance to win.

      It’s a sign they still believe money alone is what wins elections, which means they’re still terminally stupid.

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        1. Well that will stop under the new Harris administration when equality of results happens.

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    3. $200M against Graham and McConnell…down the toilet.

      not that i have much love for those two, but a bunch of out of state meddlers setting that much money on fire brings a smile to my face

  2. Better than I had feared. If only executive orders hadn’t become so common and powerful and uncontested.

    1. “If only executive orders hadn’t become so common and powerful and uncontested.”

      Spend a few minutes on the web, and see how many of Emperor Heusain’s edicts got overturned by a court.

      1. They even became law requiring official rule making policies to overturn for the next guy.

      2. How many states w/D governors destroying their people with lockdown edicts has having “divided government” helped?

  3. Note for the next election:
    The kinds of people who vote for Republicans are the kind of people who don’t answer unknown phone numbers, and don’t talk to pollsters.

    1. … and don’t put up lawn signs in areas where they are outnumbered 2:1 by often violent leftist neighbors with “no place for hate” in their lives.

    2. This is assuming that pollsters goal is to actually be accurate and not simply serve to spread a narrative. I have a hard time believing anybody who sucks at their jobs as much as pollsters do could keep them.

      1. What do you mean? Biden is by 2 percentage points nationally. Isn’t that what the pollsters predicted? With a photo finish in Michigan and Wisconsin?

        1. Monday The Economist had him up 10 points, CNBC gave him 11, and Quinnipiac also had him up 10 on Sunday. Outside of Rasmussen, who only had him up 1, the rest have been giving him between 4 and 10 for the last week.

  4. Look, the most important thing is that President Biden will take office in January. And not a moment too soon for Reason.com’s benefactor Charles Koch, who is now barely in the top 20 richest people on the planet because of Drumpf’s high-tariff / low-immigration policies.

    I guarantee that next year Mr. Koch will get back in the top 10 where he belongs.


    1. #ImpeachJoeBidenTheCrook

  5. Since it’s unlikely that we’ll see any libertarians elected to national office anytime soon, I prefer things to be divided like this. In theory, it means less gets done, which is generally a good thing.

    Sadly, I don’t think this will mean a check on the COMPLETELY FUCKING OUT OF CONTROL spending that goes on in Washington. Can we just end one (1!) of the goddamned endless wars we’re currently engaged in???

    1. Gretchen Whitmer laughs as she torches your house.

      1. Having. Republican dominated Federal government wouldn’t stop that.

        1. Neither did having divided government in her state.
          Welcome to the new normal, comrade.

          1. So give the fuck up and line up against the wall. It is all over, because you have admitted defeat. Let those of us willing fight while you cower in the corner crying about your lost liberties because you have given the fuck up. That is what all your posts today say to me. It is all over we are done there will never be another fair elections, it was stolen. It is waving a white flag and giving ammunition to the progressives, giving them exactly what they wanted. They are pulling your strings.

    2. I agree. And I do not like Trump, but he was more likely (though gutless for 4 years) to be the one to pull us out of one of our endless wars. I see 0% chance that that will happen under a Biden administration. Tulsi 2024!

  6. Divided government is a feature, not a bug.

    1. Yes. Even with an R president.

  7. you should just call this “MY Crumbling Hopes …”

  8. Excellent they saw their base support start to collapse. Nobody wants to be part of a corrupt lying party like the democrats.

  9. Gridlock is best for small government fans -preferably with a Dem potus and GOP House.

  10. Glad Collins won. That Gideon lady was scary.

  11. 11 trillion in things for citizens as opposed to the 2 trillion Trump and co just dumped to the rich. Yay.

    1. $1,200 per person in helicopter money, paycheck protection loans, and expanded unemps = giveaway to the rich. Aight, dawg.

      Just how many people do you think are rich in this country? I thought Canadians were supposed to be well-educated.

    2. “11 trillion in things for citizens”

      “Citizens” are “inept cousin fucking Democrat mayors and governors” who have spent their state into oblivion and now want a bailout.

      NY and CA going under will be glorious to watch. Not a dime.

    3. Yeah, very nice. Here, let me take 25% of your income and then toss you some scraps in return.

    4. that’s 9 trillion more in new debt for the citizens, hopefully averted for now

  12. So you’re saying the dems shouldn’t have concentrated all their fraud efforts on the main event?

    Ha! Just kidding.

  13. I didn’t know we had a chattering class. It’s probably good when they’re wrong.

  14. Nate Silver’s on the phone, he’s asking if we’re taking applications.

    1. Nate Pig Iron should be working at Burger King

  15. Trump Heads Into 2020 Election in Search of a Blockbuster Deal
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  16. “As votes in Michigan continue to be counted, the presidential race in the state remains extremely tight as we always knew it would be. President Trump’s campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law. We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted. We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access. President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”

    – Bill Stepien, Trump 2020 campaign manager

    1. They should have led with this not calling fraud in the middle of the night. Maybe say we are ahead and expect to win, but also want to insure every eligible vote is tallied correctly, so we are requesting access and if we are not granted we will sue for our right to be present. We have some worries and just want to verify that our worries are not warranted. Why did Whitmer bars us from access? What is she hiding?

  17. Love the pic of Collins laughing like Palpatine. Collins is behind it all.

  18. Reasons acknowledging the completely obvious that everyone managed to figure out 16 hours ago (no “blue wave”). Good job Bunion!

    On another note: did the media ((including even Fox News) royally fuck up by calling Arizona far too prematurely for Sleepy Joe?? It’s looking like they may well have.

    1. Cindy McCain’s Revenge!

    2. Fox News is becoming not terribly distinguishable from CNN. Absolutely terrible channel and I await Tucker leaving them and watching their numbers crater.

      1. They rose with the neocons, and they are falling with them too. Fox News is the Lincoln Project of news channels.

      2. Fox News at least made calls when they were obvious (Florida, Texas, Ohio, etc.) The other stations were in denial.

        And Arizona is staying with Biden. Trump’s only chance now is Nevada.

        1. FNC took forever on Florida. Fought to the end. And Chris Wallace is a useless cunt.

  19. Divided govt? Good. The more they fight amongst themselves the less the can fuck with us.

    1. I can live with it; my fondest hopes were for another hundred or so judges, but at least they won’t be able to pack the courts or pass draconian gun legislations [thereby rending me a de facto felon by default].

      And Biden will just be an embarrassment to the trammeled Democrats.

  20. The election will go for weeks…ballots will continue to be “found” as long as necessary for Biden to win…get over it…

    1. There is a difference between cast votes, and certified votes. I suspect we are about to be educated on this for the next month.

  21. I’m OK with Rs at least holding the Senate- not ideal, but not a nightmare scenario. The bad thing is the Ds have the control levers of the administrative state and can cause all kinds of havoc with federal agencies. I do wish, however, that the Rs had a little bit healthier majority. With the presidency, the Ds effectively have another senator with the VP tiebreaker. Plus, if one of these old bastards kicks off and happens to be from a state with a D governor, that could swing the numbers pretty quickly.

  22. At least the Supreme Court won’t get packed now, and any stimulus plan will have to be somewhat reasonable, and the Green Raw Deal is on ice for two more years at least.

  23. The Repubs have gained 5 seats in the House so far, and may lose 0 or 1 in the Senate. It’s like Biden/Harris had negative coattails.

    1. If Trump were just a little less of an aggressively obnoxious asshole, he would probably have it wrapped up by now.

      His behavior really is a major turnoff to the typical suburban white woman, even many of the ones who are somewhat in agreement with many of his policies.

      1. If anybody had the media coverage he had, they would’ve lost horribly. Give Obama Trump’s coverage and he doesn’t win re-election either.

        Anyway, the tech lords got what they wanted so Reason is happy. Censorship is good, right?

  24. Given that Dems have given up on legislation in favor of executive orders and bureaucratic diktat the lack of Senate support is unlikely to matter much.

    1. That is why they hate the new SOTUS. It will be a wall against their ability to edict regulations. And with senate not in their hands no packing the court.

      I understand Occasional Cortex is about to have a coronary over the Latino vote.

  25. awwww booo it looks like James finally slipped below Peters

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  27. Would now be a good time to discuss Tecumseh’s Curse? I have a feeling that with a Biden win, Harris will be praying for it’s return and given his age and Covid, she might not have a long wait even without helping Tecumseh out.

  28. If Biden is elected President, be thankful there will a a Republican Senate to curb his wacko dangerous progressive leftist policies.

    1. The Senate will thwart him for two years, and then the house will flip and both houses will neutralize him. He’ll take credit for anything good that happens in the deadlock, just like Bubba Clinton did.


  29. “Democrats’ Crumbling Hopes of a Blue Wave Make Divided Government More Likely.”

    Well, there wouldn’t be a problem about a divided government if the unenlightened masses would accept socialist tyranny.
    It’s much more easy to govern, it burgeons our obvious betters bank accounts as they loot the treasury and ensures all of us are happy as we wait in line for a loaf of bread for days at a time.
    You would’ve thought that would’ve brought more people over to the side of light and reason by now.

  30. If I can on a so called libertarian website say: Thank God for a divided government!!! Here’s hoping that the senate plays hardball to the new Harris administration.

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  33. Yay! A divided government allows more possibilities and cracks in the system where people can exercise their freedoms.

  34. Yay! A divided government allows more possibilities

    1. and cracks in the system where people can exercise their freedoms.

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