National Debt

America's Debt Will be Twice the Size of the Economy by 2050

The Congressional Budget Office warns that higher levels of debt will slow economic growth significantly in the years ahead.

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If you're getting tired of unrelentingly bad news about the national debt—well, I have some terrible news.

Today the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a 30-year budget projection. By 2050, the number-crunching agency now says, the national debt will grow to 195 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That's 45 percentage points higher than the CBO was projecting last year. What it couldn't foresee, of course, was the COVID-19 pandemic and the expensive federal response to it, which has pushed the national debt to nearly 100 percent of current GDP.

The national debt is expected to hit 107 percent of GDP—matching the record high set during World War II—by 2023:

Rising debt levels will "increase the risk of a fiscal crisis—that is, a situation in which investors lose confidence in the U.S. government's ability to service and repay its debt, causing interest rates to increase abruptly, inflation to spiral upward, or other disruptions," the CBO warns. "It would increase the likelihood of less abrupt, but still significant, negative effects, such as expectations of higher rates of inflation."

A national debt nearly twice the size of the economy will put a significant damper on long-term economic growth. The CBO now projects average growth of just 1.6 percent annually over the next 30 years. That's almost a full percentage point less than the 2.5 percent average growth rate during the past 30 years.

In short, Americans face the prospect of decades in which living standards increase at a slower rate. Businesses will likely have a harder time expanding, and the federal government will have an even harder time balancing its wildly off-kilter finances.

Although the coronavirus response has driven this year's budget deficit and the short-term national debt projections to higher-than-expected levels, the biggest problem between now and 2050 are the entitlement programs that will consume ever-larger shares of the federal budget.

While Social Security and Medicare spending are both projected to grow faster than federal revenue over the long term, another problem set to emerge in the 2030s and 2040s is the cost of paying for the national debt itself. As the country's debt load becomes heavier, the interest payments on the debt will become one of the federal government's biggest expenses, the CBO says.

"This current path will lead to insolvent trust funds and unsustainable levels of debt, prompting slower income growth, growing interest payments, and increasing the risk of fiscal crisis," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement.

Reducing the size of annual budget deficits and getting the national debt under control will be no easy task. In order to merely bring the national debt down to 100 percent of GDP by 2050, the CBO estimates that Congress would have to implement policy changes—spending cuts, tax increases, or both—equal to about $730 billion (or 2.9 percent of GDP) by 2025.

That would be the same as cutting roughly half of all discretionary spending in last year's federal budget. And the longer Congress waits to take action, the larger that number will become.

As is always the case when discussing the long-term debt and deficit problems facing America, younger generations stand to lose if nothing is done in the near future. "Delaying policy changes would reduce the well-being of younger generations (compared with their well-being if policy changes occurred earlier)," the CBO warns. "Moreover, the farther in the future that a policy change occurred, the more the well being of older generations would be improved and that of younger generations would be worsened."

And, of course, none of this accounts for the possibility that spending could continue to increase above current baselines in the near future. Both President Donald Trump and Joe Biden have indicated that they will hike spending and add to the debt.

The bad news, it seems, will keep coming for a long while.

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137 responses to “America's Debt Will be Twice the Size of the Economy by 2050

  1. The only uncontested fact about economics is that no projection is valid after the next election.

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    3. The DEBT is not the DEFICIT. And the DEFICIT is not the DEBT. They are separate problems.

      Government BORROWING drives up the debt, not government SPENDING.

      The solution to our debt problem is simple: STOP ISSUING DEBT-BASED MONEY! Begin issuing pure “unbacked” fiat money to fund the deficit, rather than going further into debt. The inflationary impact of unbacked dollars is no worse than the inflationary impact of the same amount of debt-backed dollars. Issuing unbacked dollars will halt the increase in the national debt and its crushing $479 billion in annual interest. Paying off part of the maturing debt each year and rolling over the rest will eventually bring the national debt (and its taxpayer-financed interest payments) down to zero. See http://www.fixourmoney.com .

      1. The inflationary impact of unbacked dollars is no worse than the inflationary impact of the same amount of debt-backed dollars.

        False. Borrowing money =/= printing money.

        1. Did Wimpy ever pay for his burgers on Tuesday?

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  2. Not a problem. We can just print enough money to double the size of the economy, and then the debt will be half of what it would otherwise be! That’s how it works, right?

    1. I thought Senator Robert “I am corrupt AF’ Menendez of the People’s Republic of NJ had a real beauty. He wanted to mint a coin for 1T and use that to pay the debt. Typical Team D lunacy.

      1. Think Menendez is on Epstein’s client list?

      2. Didn’t his two brothers murder their parents? ????

  3. America’s Debt Will be Twice the Size of the Economy by 2050

    Where does the $4 Trillion economic plan that we’re told will start in January come in?

    1. Don’t forget another 2 trillion for the Green Raw Deal.

  4. This pessimistic forecast fails to account for the fact that, beginning in 2021, Democrats are poised to control the Presidency for decades at a time. They will surely implement the Koch / Reason open borders agenda — and the resulting influx of highly-skilled immigrants (especially from Mexico) will promote rapid economic growth through 2050 and beyond.

    #OpenBordersWillFixEverything
    #ImmigrationAboveAll

    1. Immigrants do stimulate the economy, by and large. And when they come in their 20s or 30s, they’re a net fiscal benefit.

      1. Tons of stats say otherwise The research is so biased and unreliable that making any claim on this is tantamount to announcing your own biases.

        1. There’s nothing biased about. The math is pretty clear-cut.

          If young immigrants are a fiscal burden, then the median American is an even greater fiscal burden. That’s because most people are economically useless until they turn 21 or 22 and start producing, and until then, are supported by their parents and by the state.

          When the typical immigrant comes in his 20s or after, we skip all that childhood and teenage uselessness, which their home country have to pay for instead of the US taxpayer.

          Add to that that the first generation has roughly the same rates of employment as the native-born, and even higher rate of entrepreneurship. And it’s pretty clear they’re more useful economically. Not to mention they reduce the median age of the overall population (which helps fund SS and Medicare), and that a greater population in general spreads the burden for non-rival spending like debt and defense spending.

          1. “There’s nothing biased about. The math is pretty clear-cut.”

            The fuck it is guy with zero citations.

            As I said, you announced your biases.

              1. Thanks, we all knew you knew you were full of shit.

                1. Everything I posted was correct! To the T.

                  Not my problem you’re too much of a moron to see that, or verify stuff for yourself. Fuck off.

                  1. If it was correct you could cite it.

                    You didnt, and cried like a whole gaggle of bitches instead because your bias was exposed.

                    1. You didn’t expose anything. You didn’t prove me wrong. YOU’RE the bitch who goes around calling stuff wrong with no proof or argument;

                  2. “Not my problem ”

                    Oh yes actually it is.

                    You’re a liar. You unwillingess to cite your claims is the argument winner.

                    1. I won’t cite it because fuck you! I don’t owe you anything! Nobody tells me what to cite. Especially not a shithead like you who can’t be damned to provide a single argument.

                  3. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/01/immigrant-welfare-use-report/71517072/

                    More than half of the nation’s immigrants receive some kind of government welfare, a figure that’s far higher than the native-born population’s, according to a report to be released Wednesday.

                  4. A comprehensive study of U.S. Census Bureau reports of welfare participation revealed Wednesday that 51 percent of immigrants — legal and illegal — access welfare programs, far more than the 30 percent of native-born Americans.

                    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/51-of-immigrant-households-on-welfare-30-native-americans

                    1. ^^^Excellent – and citations! I actually dug into planned parenthood welfare’s public stat records and found over 50% of gov assistance went to immigrant families (excluding Asian). So 12% of the population is taking 50%… Hmmm… Yep, the math is pretty clear – It must be the “governments economy stimulus” of which is stolen from it’s citizens.

      2. Dude, you”ll never replace OBL with flaccid parody like that.

  5. It’s ok- the Republicans told me that their tax cut would pay for itself despite adding 2 trillion (10%) to the debt. It’ll work itself out.

    1. Its okay. Wearing it thinks all incomes are the governments and them letting you keep some is spending.

    2. Wait, not taking my money needs to pay for itself?

      Make sense idiot.

    3. Wearingshit doesn’t like it when we get to keep more of our money.

    4. Citizens! In all times, two political systems have been in existence, and each may be maintained by good reasons. According to one of them, Government ought to do much, but then it ought to take much. According to the other, this two-fold activity ought to be little felt. We have to choose between these two systems. But as regards the third system, which partakes of both the others, and which consists in exacting everything from Government, without giving it anything, it is chimerical, absurd, childish, contradictory, and dangerous. Those who parade it, for the sake of the pleasure of accusing all governments of weakness, and thus exposing them to your attacks, are only flattering and deceiving you, while they are deceiving themselves.

      Bastiat

      Welcome to America.

      1. I heard about you losing your job, hope it turns around for you.

    5. revenues went up after the tax cuts. spending went up a lot more.

  6. When in 1988 bank regulators assigned America’s public debt a 0.00% risk weight, its debt was $2.6 trillion, now way over $20 trillion and it still has a 0.00% risk weight.
    When do you think it should increase to 0.001%?
    http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2015/07/just-before-fall-of-berlin-wall.html

    1. When we’re no longer the world’s default international currency?

      1. At which point it trends rather rapidly toward 100%.

  7. Current and future voters, congresses and presidents to posterity:

    Your face will be twice the size of my butt.

  8. Weird. No mention of baseline budgeting.

    1. Another leftist conspiracy by Reason.

      1. I bet you think you losing your job is a conspiracy too lol

      2. Baseline budgeting is a congressional issue dumbfuck. Both parties consent to it.

        What the fuck is wrong with you?

        1. He’s broken. It’s sad really, he wasn’t that bad before he was broken. I mean, his jokes still weren’t funny, but there was less impotent rage.

    2. Don’t worry, President Harris will take total 2020 spending (budgeted and stimulus) as the new baseline.

      1. usually what happens. Too bad sarcasmic is too dumb to understand the issue.

  9. Part of me hopes Biden wins and the Dems get a veto-proof Senate. The splurge of spending will make Greece look like a bunch of miserly penny-pinchers, and the Republicans will have to (a) find some ideology to replace “MAGA”, and (b) maybe start bleating about fiscal restraint.

    Won’t really change anything, but it would be an interesting collapse of the left wing of the Marxian wing of the Democrat party.

    1. because Greece actually collapsed and became conservative on spending…

      1. Well, it did suffer for a good decade, and deservedly so. And yes, they have adopted austerity measures, privatized, and reformed their pension system. Now, its government spending as a share of GDP is slightly lower than that of Nordic countries.

        Of course, the public didn’t like it (which is why some austerity was cut back), but the public is stupid. And it got what’s coming. Greece was the first among developed countries to be reclassified as an emerging market in 2014 by major financial service companies.

        1. Hey real quick, when you lie about math being clear cut, it generally helps to actually post math and not your mental masturbation.

          1. I’ll post my fist in your rectum! Would you enjoy that?! Fuck off, shitstain!

            1. Or I could just keep owning you.

              1. Own me? Everything I said was correct, and you just keep announcing that you’re too dumb to process the simple fact I’m laying. How is that ownership? You’re just owning yourself as low IQ.

                1. “Own me?”

                  Your whining confirms it

                  “Everything I said was correct, ”

                  Then it should be easy to prove, easier than convicing people you’re not just some liar because you won’t support your arguments.

                  1. You’re the one whining that my FACTS didn’t satisfy you. Not my fucking problem.

                    1. You provided nothing to back it up.

                2. I posted citations showing you weren’t correct.

                  1. Like Biden, he prefers truth over facts.

              2. You know you’re low IQ when you can’t process that when other countries pay for immigrants education, we fiscally benefit.

                Or that Greece’s spending-to-GDP is a little lower than that of Nordic countries.

                Just pure FACTS you’re dumb to grasp. It takes all kinds to make a world, including low IQ people.

                1. Still just you shooting off your lying dicksucker with no cites, as I own you

                  1. dude24 sounds like sarcasmic

                    1. If he’s not, and is just a new commentator, he’s been broken very quickly.

                  2. You’re a dumb shit is what you are. Low IQ. Very low.

                2. “……immigrants education……”

                  Along with that stellar education they bring with them a treasure trove of experience in living in a shithole.

                  Net benefit, indeed!

                  1. ..and their genius kids. And healthy grandparents.

        2. Austerity includes borrowing billions in loans and not paying them back? They didn’t last a year with austerity. Croatia did though. And Estonia.

      2. They had the EU to bail them out. No one would bail out the US.

    2. (a) find some ideology to replace “MAGA”, and (b) maybe start bleating about fiscal restraint.

      The Republicans used to bleat about fiscal restraint and were accused of trying to kill old people and children by the Democrats and the Media. Maybe if they go back to bleating about fiscal restraint the Democrats won’t accuse Republicans of trying to kill old people and children.

      1. I really don’t care about bleating as much as I do about actual spending restraint. Actually, if the GOP were wiser, they’d realize spending cuts are not that popular, and accordingly, STFU and just do it in silence. The higher-turnout fiscal conservative voter base would like it and then silently and electorally reward them for.

        1. You don’t care about actual facts either, so yeah.

        2. I don’t know how they would “do it in silence”.

    3. Maybe you should try living in the real world.

    4. Same. That’s why, even though I’m voting Trump, ultimately, I really don’t mind which way it goes.

  10. Actually I am astonished either the Republicans or Democrats even want to win the Presidential election. I am guessing the party with the President in power when the inflation, economic meltdown, market crash and next depression comes will either not regain power for a very, very, very long time or cease to exist. How long can it be kicked down the road before the crash is the only question.

    1. this is my thought as well, its why as much as i don’t want to see team blue takeover now, i think long term its better because if Trump wins again, we’ll get something much worse than Biden/Harris in 2024 and the GOP won’t have a prayer of holding them off

      1. And there’s no way Biden/Harris is a two-term package. If/when Harris winds up President, I predict the country will unify in hatred of her.

        1. Never underestimate the marketing might of the mainstream media, breathlessly reporting on whether the VP is wearing Timberland hiking boots or Chuck Connors old school basketball shoes to her latest photo op.

  11. I suppose Congress could act to shore up finances, and maybe in some future Congress they will do so, but the fortitude shown by current members doesn’t give me confidence.

    I suspect that some future Congress will get nuked by the electorate bringing military rule for a time.

  12. By 2050, things will become so bad that Libertarian presidential candidates will pull as much as 10% of the national vote.

    1. Let’s not get hyperbolic, here.

    2. The Libertarian party in the US is a joke. There only issue in the past was legalization of marijuana, and that is no longer a real issue.
      As for libertarians, they will never rule. The libertarian principles of
      “do no harm” and “your rights end where mine begin, and my rights end where yours begin” believes in the basic goodness of man, and that quality doesn’t exist in most humanity. How will you ever gain power if you don’t lust for power?
      Yes, I believe in libertarian principles, but am realistic about possibilities!

  13. Har har. It’s yer problem, kids. I plan to be dead by then. And I don’t mean “Mostly Dead.”

    1. Me, too. And I don’t reproduce. Good luck, suckers!

  14. Its cute how you kids think the world economy is going to survive until 2050.

  15. csdgsegwgwe

  16. The American public holds 70% of this debt so we’re paying interest to ourselves.

    1. Only if society and government are synonyms.

      1. He said “American public” you illiterate retard. What you said doesn’t even make sense, drunk.

      2. Lol. Even the leftists hate your idiotic pandering.

    2. Where’s my check?

    3. Oh, hooray. I’m taxed at 32% (and going up to 65% when AOC is President), so I can earn 0.7% on what I somehow manage to save.

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  19. Both parties talk about cutting spending when it’s convient and talk about spending more when it’s convient. Democrats do spend more, but neither party will ever take the debt seriously. Maybe more would if we had term limits. Send all the mormons to the gas chambers!

    1. I’m starting to think that your only beef with Hitler is that he focused on the wrong religion as the source of all of society’s problems. True or false?

      1. My grandfather earned a purple heart fighting the Nazis. As a patriotic American I shouldn’t have to explain how anti-Nazi I am. Mormons are the fascist Nazis! They wanna take over the country and force their nonsense beliefs on everyone. Eisenhower was impressed by the autobahn, so we have the interstate system. Yet he’s not called a Hitler lover or Nazi(to be fair he literally fought them). Mormons deserve slow and painful deaths, but I’m too nice a guy so I’m proposing a relatively painless death. Send all the mormons to the gas chambers!

    2. Both parties talk about cutting spending when it’s convient

      I have never heard a Democrat talk about cutting spending. I’m always told that that spending “pays for itself.”

      Send all the mormons to the gas chambers!

      Is your anti-Mormon screeching supposed to be amusing? Is it supposed to be some kind of satire? Or are you truly that lacking in self-awareness? I don’t get it.

      1. Democrats talk about needing additional spending when times are bad, to prime the pump. And never cutting spending when times are good, because austerity would harm those most at risk.

        1. Most republicans didn’t say crap while W cut taxes and fought two wars. As soon as Obama takes office during a huge financial crisis the Tea Party pops up. Where were they under Bush? Obama eventually reduced the deficet, and Clinton left office with a surplus. Trump will only care about the deficet or debt if he thinks it’ll get him reelected or rile up his base. I stand by my statement th parties only caring when politically advantageous. Scott Walker was portrayed as this union busting debt and deficet hawk. Yet he approved 250 million for the Bucks stadium. I love sports, but we shouldn’t be using taxpayer money to build their stadiums. Send all the mormons to the gas chambers!

      2. During the 2000’s some democrats criticized GWB for his increasing the deficet and debt. Obama called W’s policies of cutting taxes and spending on two wars “unpatriotic” I believe.
        My anti-mormon information is patriotic because I’m raising awareness of a serious threat. Mormons are trying to take over the country and force their wrong, goddamn stupid beliefs on everyone. I’m reasonable, but they refuse to stop trying to convert everyone, breeding like rabbits, or stay in shithole Utah. They’re traitors and must be stopped. Send all the mormons to the gas chambers!

  20. dbgwregrrherherherher

  21. Here’s some good news. Trump isn’t going to pay a thing. He’s going to get the federal reserve audited. He’s then going to tell them to go pound sand up their ass. They’ve been defrauding us since they were founded. They loan us the money they print and we’re on the hook for the interest. This situation is what sparked the revolutionary war. If you doubt me go check out what Franklin had to say about it. There is a global reset coming and the central banks all over the world are going to be shut down. They’ve committed crimes against humanity and it’s time they pay. Of course if Trump loses it’s all over.

    1. “Buy gold, ammo and food!”

      1. You would need a job to earn money for that first.

        1. I cant handle an alcohol withdrawal sarc. He is bad enough already.

      2. If it gets to that point, the gold will be worthless.
        Think it through; You have 100 pounds of gold, I have 100 pounds of food. Why would I ever trade food for gold?
        If you have 100 pounds of gold, and I have 100 pounds of ammunition, same question, plus I can use my ammunition to take your gold. If you really believe the society will collapse, bullets and beans and bandages. No need for gold.

        1. Food expires. Using bullets invites retaliation. Gold will endure for when civilization is reestablished.

        2. i’d said exactly this for a while now. if there’s one bright side to mad max times, it might be that people finally realize gold really isn’t valuable either.

    2. He’s going to get the federal reserve audited. He’s then going to tell them to go pound sand up their ass.

      Based on . . . ?

      This situation is what sparked the revolutionary war. If you doubt me go check out what Franklin had to say about it.

      What Franklin had to say about the Federal Reserve?

      *rubs temples*

      There is a global reset coming and the central banks all over the world are going to be shut down.

      By whom? You get that there’s not a button, right?

  22. As long as the US remains the world’s largest economy and pays interest on bonds, people will buy its debt.

    1. Meanwhile, you’re a broke deadbeat lololol

    2. As long as the US remains the world’s largest economy and pays interest on bonds, people will buy its debt.

      Another 10-15 years, then?

  23. CBO projections are like a vaccine…they only work about 30% of the time. The US, as it is now, will not even exist in 2050.

  24. The Federal Reserve (the 3rd central bank) was instituted to slowly, methodically steal, i.e., transfer wealth from the 99% to the 1% in an orderly, legal, diabolical way that few would discover. No matter. It still leads to collapse, as all institutional theft does. It took a hundred + years, but taxation/regulation/war/public miseducation are finally overcoming “The American Dream”.

    1. in an orderly, legal, diabolical way that few would discover

      It’s not that complicated, really – it’s called “inflation.”

    2. Here’s a fun fact.. Democrats wrote the Federal Reserve Act.

  25. Another prediction: Nazi Germany’s Debt Will be Twice the Size of the Economy by 1950

  26. The federal debt is already twice the size of the economy.
    Federal debt = 26.8 trillion today
    2020 GDP = 21.4 trillion forecast (before the shutdowns)
    2020 GDP = 19.4 trillion estimated (after the shutdowns)
    But that includes 4.8 trillion in government spending for 2020 (budgeted), and another 1.5 trillion in “stimulus” (not budgeted) has already been spent, so federal spending this year is going to be 6.3 trillion at least.
    Leaving 13.1 trillion in GDP contributed by the productive private economy (19.4 – 6.3).
    Which is less than half of the federal debt.

    1. I guess the good news is that at 0.668% 10-year Treasury yield, interest on the debt could be as low as 179 billion per year. But jack that up to the long term average yield of 4.43% (with inflation from all the money printing returning, that may be low), and annual debt payments could be as high as 1.187 trillion per year, or about 25% of the planned federal budget.

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  36. “Federal Spending Hits $6.6 Trillion

    Federal government spending has jumped from $4.5 trillion in fiscal 2019 to $6.6 trillion in fiscal 2020.”

    https://www.cato.org/blog/federal-spending-hits-66-trillion

    Fake momentary Republican Trumpy the Clown has spent and taxed (tariffs) like the lifelong NY Democrat that he has always been. If reelected and freed from electoral pretense, having cost Libertarians and libertarian leaning Republicans all elected influence (The Senate, the House, and MANY state and local offices and seats from dog catcher to Governor.); Trump will truly indulge his “yuge” government instincts “biggly.”

    Trumpulus, an even more “biggly” piggly Porkulus.

    1. What’s REALLY SAD is Trump’s crazy spending (Of which most was legislative plans of the Democratic Party) STILL CANNOT out-do Obama’s Spending or Democrats spending plans in general.

      It is freak-en disgusting; but until people start voting MORE for competent representatives instead of crooks that belong in prison or charged with treason (we had that option with Rand Paul) and who are about Constitutional conservative government – trashing the least worst option is just banging your head on a brick wall.

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