Coronavirus

Daily COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. Have Fallen Dramatically Since April

The downward trend continued after states began lifting their lockdowns.

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Amid concerns about post-lockdown increases in COVID-19 infections, there is one striking piece of good news: Daily deaths from the disease in the United States have fallen dramatically since April, and that downward trend has continued into June. Even taking into account the average lag between laboratory confirmation and death—about two weeks, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—the loosening of restrictions on movement and economic activity that began at the end of April so far has not led to the surge in COVID-19 deaths that many lockdown supporters predicted.

The seven-day rolling average of daily deaths, which peaked at 2,210 on April 18, had fallen to 605 as of yesterday—a 73 percent drop. The downward trend has continued for more than a month since mid-May, when the impact of post-lockdown infections should have started to show up in fatality figures. In Texas, for example, the seven-day average fell from 58 on April 30, when the statewide lockdown was lifted, to 20 on June 13 before climbing to 30 as of yesterday.

Some states, including Texas, have seen notable increases in confirmed cases and hospitalizations since late May. Those increases, which cannot be fully explained by expanded virus testing, may be related to Memorial Day gatherings and the mass protests against police brutality triggered by George Floyd's death. The spike in cases that states such as Texas have seen can be expected to result in more deaths during the next couple of weeks than otherwise would have occurred. But if epidemiologists are correct in thinking that superspreading events on and after Memorial Day explain recent surges in infections—which makes senses given the timing—the resulting rise in daily deaths should be temporary.

The nationwide crude case fatality rate (CFR) has fallen along with daily deaths, from slightly more than 6 percent on May 16 to about 5.3 percent today. Since the denominator includes only confirmed cases, you would expect the crude CFR to drop as testing is expanded to include more people with mild symptoms. If all infections were detected, according to the CDC's "best estimate," the overall fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus in the United States would be less than 0.3 percent.

You would also expect the crude CFR to fall if newly infected people are less likely to have serious preexisting medical conditions than people infected earlier in the epidemic.* That seems plausible as younger, healthier people move about more now that they are allowed to do so, returning to work and visiting businesses more, especially if efforts to protect Americans who are most vulnerable to COVID-19 are successful. (As of May 22, nursing homes accounted for more than two-fifths of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.) More effective treatment of COVID-19 may also account for some of the drop in the crude CFR.

Youyang Gu's epidemiological model, which has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities, currently projects that daily deaths in the United States will continue to decline until early July, then rise through mid-August, exceeding the current level by late July, before declining again through September, dropping below the current level by the middle of that month. The model shows the nationwide death toll, currently about 120,000, rising to about 143,000 by the end of July, about 163,000 by the end of August, and about 180,000 by the end of September.

I would not call that good news, but it is not nearly as bad as the estimate of 200,000 deaths by June 1 that The New York Times trumpeted in early May. The Times claimed that wildly wrong projection "underscore[s] a sobering reality" and "confirm[s] the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways." The estimate embraced by the Times projected 3,000 daily deaths by now, five times the current level.

*Addendum: Data from several states confirm that the average age of people who test positive for the COVID-19 virus is falling. In Florida, the median age of newly identified patients fell from 65 in early March to 35 last week. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott notes that residents younger than 30 account for a growing share of confirmed cases in that state. In Arizona, 20-to-44-year-olds, who represent 37 percent of the population, now account for 48 percent of confirmed cases.

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  1. We’re all gonna die.
    — the media

    1. Ah, physical fitness, whatever. You know, whatever. You do what you like to do and I do what I like to do, ok? .. But you’re a sucker, you’re getting fed this line about how.. like.. you’re gonna live forever or whatever. You’re gonna die. Someone’ll kill ya. Someone’ll kill ya with a knife. Make sure you’re abs are uhh… friggin’ ripped.. you got some good guns. You wanna look good for when you get stabbed with a knife pulls out knife Sorry, that’s how it works.

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      1. What a brilliant and well-reasoned analysis. Your mother must be proud.

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    2. If not from the virus, global warming will finish off the rest.

  2. And yet we’re still supposed to PANIC about red states opening up. I live in the largest county in the largest state, and the daily number shows only 59 total hospitalized COVID-19 cases. Not deaths, just hospitalizations. It’s a large number in many ways, but it’s not panic inducing. Yet we were the first state to shutdown and the last state to begin reopening.

    Glad I’m not in New York City (or Italy), but I think we can start thinking about moving past panic mode. Seriously.

    1. New York’s numbers are down 95% — both confirmed cases, and deaths.

      1. And yet they’re still be threatened with negative actions is they go against the will of their kings governor and mayor.

        1. No, you were right the first time, no need to strike it through.

    2. San Berdoo? I worked in SB County. The county seat was about 100 miles from where the mine was located. The sheriff would visit on occasion and use a chopper to get there.

  3. Spiking. It is Spiking.

    1. ‘Member when everyone was ridiculing the predictions of 120,000 dead by summer’s end (including me)? I ‘member.

      1. Except the numbers were at 2 million per IHME and the British models.

      2. Also nobody expected them to keep counting “died with” instead of “died of” since the CDC has never used that metric prior. They just revised down 2017 flu numbers due to over counting and over estimates from “died of”.

        Jesse

        1. Jesse knows better than thousands of doctors what the cause of death should be for all these poor people. No, wait, all these doctors are primarily motivated by how much their hospital will get from the federal government, rather than their professional values and medical accuracy.

          1. Hey strawman.

            You going to be okay sweetie? Please point me to the thousands of doctors you’re referencing. I’ll point to Dr. Bitx from the CDC as well as the Colorqdo health organization. Both showed estimates for 25% too high on the count.

            Your turn sweetie.

              1. He’s talking about the thousands of doctors who filled out death certificates with covid as cause of death. I’m pretty sure they exist and that happened.

                1. They didn’t fill out covid as cause of the CDC forms were listed as filed with. Per Dr. Birx.

                2. The problem is that it is NOT primary cause of death we are recording for COVID, completely contrary to normal medical record procedures. The official policy is to list any death with COVID as a CONTRIBUTING FACTOR as a COVID death even when other factors predominate.

                  ” Illinois Public HealthDirector, Dr. Ngozi Ezike … explained that anyone who passes away after testing positive for the virus is included in that category.

                  If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it’s still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who’s listed as a COVID death doesn’t mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death.” (The video for this is readily found).

                  This is over and above “ascertainment bias” which Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, discussed in the April 1 edition of BBC Future;
                  “During an epidemic, doctors are more likely to attribute a death with complex causes as being caused by the disease in question – a trait known as ascertainment bias. We know, during an epidemic, people will call every death as though it’s related to Covid-19. But that is not the case,” says Heneghan. “Always, when people look back at the case notes and assign causation, they realise they will have overestimated the case fatality in relation to the disease.”

                  In 2009, some countries overestimated the H1N1 deaths by more than 50 times the accurate numbers. Do not be surprised to see that US (and other countries) end up adjusting the numbers downward by more than half. The professional association for pathologists in the UK has already called for a complete review of all COVID death certificates.

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                    1. Oh, fuck off, already, moron troll….

            1. Condescension is a tool used by intellectual lightweights to avoid making a coherent point. Try again.

              1. You mean where I linked the evidence? Try again sweetie.

          2. “Jesse knows better than thousands of doctors what the cause of death should be for all these poor people.”

            I agree.

            “No, wait, all these doctors are primarily motivated by how much their hospital will get from the federal government, rather than their professional values and medical accuracy.”

            Their bosses are motivated by that, and with most of the medical staff laid off, the younger ones with massive student loans to pay and no savings can do what they are told and work, or the hospitals will find someone who will.

            Professional values? Please.

            Oh, and btw, not everyone who dies of “COVID” dies in a hospital. There were nursing homes that were simply listing every death as COVID for weeks on end… makes things easier, and no one’s going to check, so why not?

            Strangely, very few flu or non-COVID viral pneumonia deaths this year, which is strange given that it started out to be a really bad flu year… yet flu deaths nosedived as soon as COVID appeared. Weird!

            1. Almost a third were never tested for Covid.

          3. I don’t know better than the thousands of doctors, but I do know what the CDC protocol is, and I know what I see when I sign death certificates. I’m a mortician, and I network with a lot of morticians, and we all know that the official numbers are garbage.

            In my funeral home we’ve had 40+ certificates with COVID-19 listed as the cause of death. That includes a woman with a broken neck, a woman who had been suffering from Alzheimer’s for 8 years and had been on dialysis for 2 years. Literally every case (save one) we had was for the very old and the very ill. That one exception was a 52-year-old who was 350 pounds, a smoker, and was suffering from heart disease.

      3. “‘Member when everyone was ridiculing the predictions of 120,000 dead by summer’s end (including me)? I ‘member.”

        Now do those actually *caused* by the flu, rather than those *linked* to the flu.

      4. Not really. I guess some people thought those were bad predictions. I thought they seemed reasonable. And still were no reason to panic or kill the economy or make little tyrants out of all the governors.

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  4. The models say we’re all going to die.

    1. It’s time to prove the models wrong. Quarantining saved millions of lives if not more, and social distancing and face masks have been proven to #SlowTheSpread. As long as we’re all in this together, we can beat this thing once and for all.

      #SlowTheSpread
      #HereForYou
      #InThisTogether
      #CHAZ

      1. No, we’re still all going to die.

      2. I know, right? Just look at Sweden! No lockdown and based on cases per million, they aren’t even in the top ten. Why, they got beaten out by such puny countries like Vatican, Bahrain, and Mayotte (whatever that is)!

        1. Are you trying to prove how stupid cowardly pieces of lefty shit can be?
          You’re doing a great job.

          1. Before you accuse me of being a lefty, who are you gonna vote for, Trump or Jo?

            1. None of the above – I don’t vote against my own self-interests, which unquestionably eliminates these 2 assholes.

            2. “Before you accuse me of being a lefty, who are you gonna vote for, Trump or Jo?”

              Why are your changing the subject. lefty shitbag?

      3. “It’s time to prove the models wrong. Quarantining saved millions of lives if not more,

        Quarantining is when you isolate people known to be sick. That is not what any of this was. This was tyranny.

        The only lives saved were those who would have died from lack of medical care if the hospitals reached capacity. Everyone else is just going to get the disease later. That’s not a life saved. When you factor in the many people that the lockdowns killed, the net is going to be a greater loss of life by far than if we’d followed Sweden’s lead.

        ” and social distancing and face masks have been proven to #SlowTheSpread.”

        Masks, no, social distancing, somewhat, but we don’t want to #SlowTheSpread. That will also #SlowTheHerdImmunity, and that is the only thing that will end this.

        “As long as we’re all in this together, we can beat this thing once and for all.”

        Not by hiding behind a face diaper and trying to prevent getting sick. If you are not in a full biohazard suit and with your house set up as a positive pressure, filtered-air isolation ward, you’ll get it. So will I, so will everyone, until we get herd immunity– which you’re trying to avoid.

        We could advise those particularly at risk to isolate and wear N95 respirators and face shields/goggles in public if they must, and have the rest of us just go live our lives. Anyone who wants to cower and hide can do so, but don’t force us all to, because if you bend down the herd immunity rate exactly as much as you bend down the infection rate, what do you think you’ve accomplished, other than prolonging the agony? In a world where we are all “quarantined,” none of us are quarantined.

        1. We’re really banking on widespread deployment of an effective vaccine before this Winter, aren’t we?

          1. And in light of the fact that no single-strnd RNA virus vaccine has ever been developed, I’ll vote a big fat sack of no on that happening. But it does make for exciting click bait headlines…

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    2. The models say we’re all going to die.

      Who cares what a bunch of bulimic coke-heads has to say?

      1. i was thinking depends on what the models are doing while they’re telling me we’re all going to die

      2. Laugh. Out. Loud.

  5. The Times claimed that wildly wrong projection “… confirm[s] the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways.”

    Citation needed.

    1. A citation?
      Really?
      You expect a citation from the New York Times?
      Next thing we know you will actually believe slaves were on that ship to Jamestown in 1619.

      (John Punch was an enslaved African who lived in the Colony of Virginia. Thought to have been an indentured servant, Punch attempted to escape to Maryland and was sentenced in July 1640 by the Virginia Governor’s Council to serve as a slave for the remainder of his life. For this reason, historians consider John Punch the “first official slave in the English colonies,”)

    2. I don’t know. Seems likely enough that at least two patients died on gurneys in hallways at some point this spring.

  6. Upon reading Sullum’s headline, Ron Bailey walked down the hallway, entered his office, and punched him in the face.

    1. You’re just mad Bailey doesn’t repeat every insane lie the Tangerine Rapist comes up with during his adderall-droxy fever dreams. FYI, Bailey has a degree in science, you don’t and neither does the Apricot Retard.

      1. First, not a Trump guy here. But you knew that already.
        Second, I have 3 engineering degrees. The diplomas for all of them say “Science”.
        Third, there’s no need to resort to name calling, you ass with feet.

        1. Whatever that means.

          1. It means you’re a walking ass. You have no other body parts, just two cheeks and a hole.

            1. “…two cheeks and a hole.”

              Don’t forget the buttplug.

            2. “It means you’re a walking ass…”

              Nope.
              Turd is what comes out of that.

      2. Bailey posted the studies based on Surgisphere data dummy. He even defended against the issues pointed out to him in the comments.

      3. Tangerine Rapist.

        That’s kinda funny.

      4. “…the Tangerine Rapist..”

        Do pederasts spend all their spare time trying to embarrass themselves with ‘clever’ nick-names?

        1. They do! (When they’re not posting instructions on kiddie-porn access.)

      5. I didn’t know you could get a degree in “science”. I always thought it had to be something a little more specific, like Biology or Physics.

        1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bachelor_of_Science

          Sorry Peanut. Go back to the sandbox so you can flap around with the other mongoloids.

          1. Sorry, turd; using wiki as a cite is the mark or a fucking lefty ignoramus, fucking lefty ignoramus.
            I forgot; did your links favor little boys or girls? And isn’t your daddy fucking you tonight?

            1. No I’m watching Planet Earth 2 tonight, assclown.

              1. I asked a question and you respond with this bullshit.
                Are we to assume that means you can’t remember whether your links favored diddling little boys or little girls, turd?

    2. Ron baily doing a good thing by punch him actualy this punch is hit on modi face

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  7. ” In Texas, for example, the seven-day average fell from 58 on April 30, when the statewide lockdown was lifted, to 20 on June 13 before climbing to 30 as of yesterday.”
    This needs to be watched carefully. Is it a statistical blip, or a new trend? The number of in-patients with COVID at the hospital I work at in Texas are basically back to the March/April peak. Hoping they plateau and do not keep rising.

    1. Is it a statistical blip, or a new trend?

      It’s not a blip. idk when respiratory problem season usually ends in TX, but obviously it’s a lot warmer in those southern states in Mar. It’s why you get the spring break and snowbirds crowd. From the data I’ve seen, those states only had clusters/outbreaks then – not widespread community transmission. It was a different public health problem then than in some of the northern states where people were still mostly indoors cuz it was cold outside. idk what public health stuff you all did during that lockdown – but the public health problem in those AC required states is now, again, different than it was then and than it is now in more northern state. It’s too hot to be comfortable outside – so people are heading indoors for the AC. Where the air recirculates – at a temperature that is closer to the ‘ideal’ for the virus (which is apparently 50F or so) – and indoor is almost always going to be more ‘virus-laden’ than outdoor.

      I would suspect that you don’t get the same drop this summer – and that when your sniffles season starts in earnest (idk when that is for TX either), that your hospital case loads will be closer to capacity than in the less AC-dependent places.

      I do think Sullum is right that the cases will start hitting generally healthier populations from now on. We did an absolutely crappy job ‘protecting’ the obviously vulnerable. Our public health strategy was more along the lines of using nursing homes as human shields to take the incoming (maybe the virus will be happy with the human sacrifice and just go away??). Hopefully we do a better job going forward reducing the risk profile of our population – but I see no sign of that so far. Until I actually start seeing stuff like ‘you may be able to rapidly change your diabetes or hypertension (easily the biggest co-morbidities here in the US) simply by eating different foods’ – I remain pessimistic about that.

      1. I do think Sullum is right that the cases will start hitting generally healthier populations from now on. We did an absolutely crappy job ‘protecting’ the obviously vulnerable.

        I’ve done some model fitting to my network’s actual hospitalizations and compared them to serology results from our staff/surgical patients. We (in Northeast NJ) are at about 1/4 of where the math says we should be in terms of total infected (though I have my doubts that the antibody tests are painting a full picture of the “effectively not vulnerable” set).

        Looks like the 80/20 rule applies to COVID as well.

        1. 1/4 meaning you are seeing antibody % at only 25% of what you’d expect? If so – wow. I do think there is something very very different with the under-20 crowd and their reaction to this virus. They’re missing from the confirmed cases – everywhere – and I haven’t seen any antibody % for them at all. So I really can’t figure out whether they’ve been ‘protected’ – or whether they are massively asymptomatic.

          Unfortunately, I do think the part of our population that is closest to herd immunity is survivors in nursing homes. Which is just about bassackwards. In a year, that herd immunity is irrelevant.

          The 80-20 Pareto rule may well work here. Statistically, that distribution tends to occur when the outcome is the result of multiple inputs that are themselves correlated. And ‘health’ is certainly something where the inputs look somewhat correlated – a large % of the population has no comorbidities with a large % with multiple comorbidities and a smaller-than-‘normal’/bell with only one.

          1. “…Unfortunately, I do think the part of our population that is closest to herd immunity is survivors in nursing homes. Which is just about bassackwards. In a year, that herd immunity is irrelevant…”

            You’ve been wrong about everything else, weenie, we’ll just add this to the list.
            Oh, and go crawl back in your hole before you catch a cold.

          2. 1/4 meaning you are seeing antibody % at only 25% of what you’d expect?

            Yeah. Depending on the hospital we should be in the 20-35% range assuming equal spread, but we’re seeing 5-10% instead.

            Unfortunately, I do think the part of our population that is closest to herd immunity is survivors in nursing homes. Which is just about bassackwards. In a year, that herd immunity is irrelevant.

            Absolutely. Due to a decision making process whose default position lies between “abundance of caution” and “constant panic,” the public health apparatus basically created the problem it was trying to avoid.

            I really can’t figure out whether they’ve been ‘protected’ – or whether they are massively asymptomatic.

            There’s some promising research afoot (cross-immunity; genetics; age-based protein development) which is going to shed some light on this. My suspicion is that a lot more people (and not just young people) became exposed/infectious without leaving a trace of such infection than one would expect. But I’m not a biologist and have no idea how that might work.

            1. Depending on the hospital we should be in the 20-35% range assuming equal spread, but we’re seeing 5-10% instead.

              And that population is mostly medical workers and inpatients? If so, that’s kind of confirming what seemed to happen in Korea. Where the virus is almost uncontrollably contagious in settings where people already know/trust each other (like that cult – where presumably people don’t recoil from everyone who sneezes or coughs) but doesn’t spread well at all outside that setting. Which really indicates droplet spread. And quite different than SARS1/MERS which spread in those medical settings primarily because the window of contagion was post-symptomatic. It does indicate though that the public health stuff we don’t do here – trace/test/isolate – would work well

              My suspicion is that a lot more people (and not just young people) became exposed/infectious without leaving a trace of such infection than one would expect.

              Hope so. Because something just published yesterday indicates that antibody levels decline pretty quickly. Small sample size but IgG antibodies declining by about 70% after 3 months and neutralizing antibodies (I think those are the really important ones but idk) declining by 8-12% after 3 months. And who knows what would happen if multiple re-infection is possible – cumulative damage?

              1. And that population is mostly medical workers and inpatients?

                No, people coming in for postponed surgeries (both I/P and O/P) and among network employees as a whole, including non-clinical, remote-working staff. Basically a good proxy for the community at large, IMO.

                Because something just published yesterday indicates that antibody levels decline pretty quickly.

                That struck me as something that would happen with any other virus (I had mono 15 years ago, for example, and I highly doubt I have the same number of antibodies present that I had then). Regardless, I never thought that true immunity was possible, mostly that our immune response has to be trained (whether through actual exposure, similar virus exposure, or vaccine) so that any subsequent infection would be less likely to be complicated.

                And who knows what would happen if multiple re-infection is possible – cumulative damage?

                Maybe for those who had a severe case, but considering that there are already at least 2 respiratory CoVs in seasonal circulation I suspect that the same result happens here: we see the worst of it since we’re all learning it, and subsequent generations will just kind of shrug it off as another wintry nuisance.

                1. Basically a good proxy for the community at large, IMO.

                  In that case, the 5-10% doesn’t surprise me at all. And lower for the 50% of the population that sees the doctor less than 2x per year and hasn’t been to hospital in years. Sweden’s overall antibody rate was roughly 6% at end of May – with a range of 4% in some groups to 25% in others

      2. Oh, LOOK!
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  8. The projections the NYT published were from a study commissioned by the Trump administration, which assumed no mitigation efforts. One thing the data strongly suggests is that lockdown efforts are responsible for the decline in cases, and that is also supported by the fact that cases are going up in places that eased restrictions more.

    I don’t think it’s quite time for the magical thinking that it will just go away, even if we return to life as normal. And the magical thinking that somehow slightly less mass death will help Trump’s reelection chances. There is no hope for him.

    1. “even if we return to life as normal”

      Get out of here with that “we” shit.

      1. Mooom leave me aloooone.

      2. Like he knows anything about normal.

        1. You say as you finish checking on today’s batch of pickled squirrel.

          1. Come on Tony, you’re thiiis close to “cousin-fucker”. Just say it already!

            1. He’ll leave out ‘brother fucker’ since that hits too close to home, right shitbag?

    2. It was not a study commissioned by the administration idiot. It was done in house and was in very much a first pass state. The employees involved said it was no where ready for even in house consumption.

    3. In Oklahoma, isn’t life already normal?

      1. Nope, mouth diapers becoming required by more and more stores there. The art museum just mandated it.

        1. Do we have to count all the Oklahoma mouth-breather suffocations from wearing masks as COVID deaths?

    4. One thing the data strongly suggests is that lockdown efforts are responsible for the decline in cases

      You gotta cite for *this* one, or is it just more of your magical thinking bullshit? ’cause based on past performance, I’m just going to go ahead and call you a liar already.

  9. Some states, including Texas, have seen notable increases in confirmed cases and hospitalizations since late

    Would love to see the firm definition of hospitalizations. My aunt works at the local hospital as an admin and she says they mark any visit, even if released immediately, as a hospitalization.

    Arizona has large population that uses the ER as their primary care, so the numbers could mean anything.

    1. Arizona has large population that uses the ER as their primary care, so the numbers could mean anything.

      Yes I suppose anything irrelevant could mean just about anything. But in the case of AZ, that’s not what it means at all. Because it ain’t your hospital bed capacity or even your ER bed capacity that is remotely close to capacity right now. Your ICU beds however are getting close to capacity – today. If it doesn’t hit capacity before July 4, that holiday will certainly move it over. And then you either have to build more ICU capacity – like pronto – or decide which ICU patients don’t get ICU.

      Knowing you – that’s something you only want to think about after it’s too late to do anything. Better to argue about whether something is still exponential or is now sigmoidal. But hey – maybe you can spin it for your political tribe.

      I never realized that ‘primary care’ in AZ actually means ‘intensive care’.

      1. “Your ICU beds however are getting close to capacity – today. ”

        Well… no. Because Arizona also has a lot of surgery centers that are ICU capable even i they aren’t ICU currently.

        1,405 ICU beds are currently in use. The 15 percent not currently occupied equates to 257 beds as of Friday.

        Of those admitted into the ICU, 546 are COVID-19 patients, according to DHS.

        https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-arizona-icu-beds-85-percent-capacity-1512352

        So 1/3rd of the use is covid related. Yet you are blaming covid for the issue.

        But keep on doing you.

        1. “…But keep on doing you.”

          Lying to justify is PANIC!!! is all he’s got.

        2. Covid IS going to be the cause of why ICU hits capacity. And yes so what if only 33% of ICU use TODAY is covid. Four months ago it was 0% – with zero expected in future. What do you think the ‘normal’ excess ICU capacity is? 33%? 50%?

          1. Uh oh. JFree is about to extrapolate exponential growth again. At this rate 1 million beds will be needed in arizona by august.

            You realize every prediction you’ve made has been wrong right? But keep hoping for those 2 million deaths.

            Sorry I used actual numbers to pop your bubble.

            1. Haha. The day your Gov fixed the problem according to your own bizjournal link below (Jun8)- because he’s a man with a plan – AZ ICU was at 76% of capacity (or 400 available beds). As of Fri (as you agree above), it is roughly 85% of capacity (or 257 available beds).

              Whatever the plan is – it IS NOT running at the same pace as the virus is it. That’s the problem when you wait too long. Ticktock ticktock ticktock.

              Question for you – what do you think the ‘remaining life expectancy’ is for someone who needs ICU now but no ICU for you? Regardless of why they need ICU. No need to guess. Apparently, we’ll soon enough find out in a grand empirical experiment by AZ.

              1. Question for you:
                Did your mommy tell you the boogey man wasn’t going to get your today?

              2. Hey dummy… Arizona is still allowing elective surgeries. Likewise they have many surgery centers, see plastic surgery centers, that have plans on place to provide ICU like conditions.

                How long until your 2 million death boner turns into blue balls?

          2. “Covid IS going to be the cause of why ICU hits capacity…”

            Asked for facts and the cowardly piece of lefty shit responds with one more ‘prediction’, none of which have been true.
            Hey, cowardly piece of lefty shit? How about citing one of of your predictions which proved true?
            Just one, but to save you the embarrassment of being called on your bullshit, cowardly piece of lefty shit, try real hard to make in non-trivial.
            Oh, and stuff your PANIC!!! flag up your ass, stick first and sit on it.

      2. And knowing you, you know not knowing actual facts.

        Arizona already has plans in place to increase ICU capacity by 25% and 50% if they have to.

        https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/06/08/arizona-officials-hospitals-emergency-plans.html

        But you do you sweetie.

        1. If wishes (executive orders from a fucking governor – as stated in that article) were horses, then beggars would ride. If turnips were swords, I’d have one by my side. If ‘ifs’ and ‘ands’ were pots and pans, there would be no need for tinkers hands.

          You all in AZ have no more than a few weeks for the actual horses/swords/pots/pans to appear. Good luck.

          Course – I advised EXACTLY that course of action – here – in fucking FEBRUARY. Been blasted for that by you and your ilk ever since.

          1. Lol. Chicken little is back! When do you start denying you said this?

          2. “You all in AZ have no more than a few weeks for the actual horses/swords/pots/pans to appear. Good luck.”

            Lol. This is going to look so dumb in 2 weeks.

      3. Hospitalization isn’t just ICU, so I’m not sure what you’re trying to say.

        1. He doesnt know what he is trying to say either.

        2. He seems to be asserting that ‘hospitalization’ is basically a bogus stat cuz ‘everyone uses the ER for primary (meaning presumably non-urgent) care’

          I’m just challenging that assertion for – more specifically – ICU. Is that also basically bogus and non-urgent? That ICU is now full of people who decided to drop by hospital to get their teeth cleaned or to have splinter removed from their finger? Maybe that’s how things work in AZ.

          1. Stay with your fear mongering instead of lying about what I asserted. Keep hoping for that 2 million dead.

            1. lying about what I asserted.

              Your words from the comment I first responded to above – My aunt works at the local hospital as an admin and she says they mark any visit, even if released immediately, as a hospitalization.

              So is ICU in AZ full of people who are getting released immediately?

              And speaking about lying – I look forward to seeing you link to what I have actually asserted at any time. Of course – I know you know lying. You just project it on others when you are the one who’s really doing it.

              1. Did you even bother reading comments? Hospitalization does not require an ICU stay you ignorant fuck.

                I know you want to change the argument so you don’t seem as stupid as you are, but this is getting boring.

              2. And you’ve lied constantly about your arguments. You literally asserted 100% of the population would get infected based on exponential covid growth dummy.

                Keep backtracking sweetie.

  10. At last somebody mentions the deaths! All I’ve been hearing is the number of cases have been rising with no mention if these are cases only caught by testing, cases among the young, cases among the old, cases requiring hospitalization or potentially fatal cases. Have we flattened the curve yet? Are the hospitals being overwhelmed? That’s supposed to be the rationale behind the lockdowns, remember? Not to stop the spread of the coronavirus but to slow it down so the hospitals don’t get overwhelmed. Anybody still interested in that aspect of it?

    1. That is so two months ago. This is the new opportunity for oppression, let’s make the most of it. Together.

    2. Anybody still interested in that aspect of it?

      Obviously not. If they actually gave you enough data to make intelligent decisions then you might not panic.

    3. “Flattening the curve” was a lie from the get-go. That should be glaringly obvious to anyone by now.

    4. In Texas, the number of confirmed cases in ICU has gone up in the last month. We started reopening on May 1. Bars have been open since May 22. We all like air conditioning. We had no enforceable mask laws until the end of last week when the Governor said counties could require businesses to require them. Prior to that Abbott had actually stated that mask laws at the county level could not be punishable by fines. We had lots of protests. We have lots of meatpacking plants. We share a border with Mexico. We’ve had lots of people floating down the river and going to beaches. You can pick what of the many reasons may be causing the spike. But it is a legitimate spike. And yet we are still in the bottom 10 states for deaths per 100000.

  11. This is sacrilege! You are not allowed to say anything positive about the CV19 situation or anything that runs contrary to what the WHO has approved as COVID safe. Posting factual information about CV19 is a dangerous thing to do these days.

    1. So keep listening to Dr. Trump MD for your facts.

      The non-Trumptards among us just wanted a normal approach to evidence. It wasn’t the medical community that mucked everything up on the messaging. Your two-bit carnival clown did that to you. He took you for an idiot. Are you an idiot?

      1. It wasn’t the medical community that mucked everything up on the messaging.
        “We don’t believe it’s transmitted human to human.“
        “There is no need for masks.”

        1. You apparently don’t get how this works.

          1. We know exactly how you work, Tony.

        2. CDC and Fauci have done the lying. What the CDC said initially was the known truth about masks– they are not, and never have been, effective disease control methods for laypeople. When used improperly, as 100% of nonmedical people do, the risk is worse than baseline (no mask). People touch their masks all damned day with their unwashed hands, then they breathe through the thing. The pores in the mask are thousands of times too big to stop a virus, so into your nose and lungs it goes. Had you not had a mask, you would not have touched your face nearly as much, and when you did, it would probably not be on a piece of cloth a quarter of an inch in front of your nose where the air is passing through.

          That was, and is, the conventional wisdom on masks by laypeople. Then suddenly we were told wearing a scarf or T shirt over the nose works, and suddenly now we all have to be in face diapers.

          Fauci admitted to being a liar, but then he said the lie was the early bit about masks not working. Of course, he’s a liar, and that was one of the lies. If this was about disease control, they’d push the hand washing a lot harder and skip the mask mandates… but you can’t SEE washed hands and marvel over how easy it was to degrade an entire populace with their mark-of-jackboot-lickery masks.

          1. And what is their motive for lying?

            1. He admitted that it was to save PPE supplies for the medical workers. That is the lie he admits to.

      2. It wasn’t the medical community that mucked everything up on the messaging.

        The messaging was clear. The Democrat governors just did whatever they felt like, including seeding nursing homes with COVID patients.

      3. It wasn’t the medical community that mucked everything up on the messaging. Your two-bit carnival clown did that to you.

        Cuomo? DeBlasio? Murphy? Whittmer?

      4. The medical community didn’t ask for 70k ventilators in NYC?

        1. That was more the political community than the medical.

      5. BCC didn’t say anything about trump. That was all you. Not only are you an idiot, you’re obsessed.

        1. TDS is easily diagnosed:
          Start a conversation on, oh aquarium cleaning, and like a vegan regarding diet, the TDS victim will immediately change the subject to TRUMP!
          The shitbags wake up with their obsession in the morning, and go to bed with it at night; it is their life!
          The asshole posting as “Big give…” is a prime example; any thread on any subject and that pathetic piece of shit will turn the discussion to TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP, TRUMP!!!, all the while claiming to be ‘neutral’ in politics.
          I’m guessing that most are either 15 year-olds, or arrested development.

  12. Many have belabored the fact that case count is skewed by dramatic increases in testing, but there’s another underreported issue with recent data, and it relates to the way left-wing people categorize things.

    I have long observed that Leftists treat “regulation” like ketchup: there is more of it or there is less of it. There is no other nuance. We need “more” regulation, ever “more”, “more”, “more”, and never is a moment spent discussing what kind of regulation there should be. A good libertarian recognizes that all kinds are bad, but some are far worse than others. It is possible to significantly improve the impact of “regulation” (or rather, lessen the harm done) without impacting the quantity of regulation. We simply improve the quality.

    The same concept applies to “lockdowns”. Most every media source talking about lockdowns speaks in terms of “more” and “less”, without analyzing the specific nature of the restrictions. Thus it is said that being “less” locked down today must surely be “worse”. But is it? Not according to the data.

    If we’ve learned to isolate our elderly and get our young people to work in ways least likely to spread the virus, we might be less locked down, even have genuine case rates go up, and still see far fewer symptoms and deaths than we did months ago. This is an improvement in every way, but to the Leftist, it’s simply “less” restriction, and “less” is bad.

    1. Liberals have for some time been talking about smart regulation, given the beatings they’ve received by vile Gingrichian small-government assholes on the subject over the years.

      Donald J. Trump, on the other hand, just boasted about cutting the largest number of regulations ever. That is the mindset you’re saying is bad, right?

      1. “Smart regulation”–as opposed to dumb regulation?

        1. Yes. It’s a caricature to say Democrats just want more regulation without regard to what they do or their effects.

          Unfortunately it’s not a caricature of Republicans to say that they want fewer regulations regardless of consequences. That’s the difference between being politicians and being a cult.

          1. Yes it is. Democrats regulate things based upon intentions. Actual results and “unintended” consequences are irrelevant to them.

            Process over outcome is the name of the game with team D.

          2. Regulations have the force of law but are not issued by any legislator. We don’t get to vote for regulators. Those kinds of issues are supposed to be decided by legislators answerable to their constituency. So, yes, I want all regulations eliminated, full stop, along with the alphabet soup agencies that write them. You want these agencies? Fine, propose a constitutional amendment that would give the feds the authority to create such an agency. Get it in the Constitution, then we’ll talk.

            1. They are certainly established by legislatures. Why should legislatures be restricted from delegating work to bureaucrats? Do you want to live in a nonfunctioning shithole of a society where every contingency must be addressed in the constitution or else ignored?

              1. “…Do you want to live in [insert lie] a society where every contingency must be addressed in the constitution or else ignored?”

                Yes, but you added your editorial lie to the question, shitbag.

      2. Yes. Liberals are often claiming their regulations have more evidence and mathematical backing than they actually do. They’ve simply created a better marketing system for more regulations.

      3. Words and actions often fail to align.

      4. Donald J. Trump is easily the stupidest person to be president. Ever.

        That fat motherfucker cannot possibly have ever read a book in his life – knows nothing about anything.

        And no, I am not a democrat – I hate them just as much. Nancy the grandstanding cunt Pelosi.

        There must be an extra hot place in hell for every one of these cocksuckers.

        1. MVP
          June.22.2020 at 8:12 pm
          “Donald J. Trump is easily the stupidest person to be president. Ever.
          […]
          And no, I am not a democra…”

          You may well be ‘not a D’, which does not save you from proving your claim wrong by taking the gold instantly in the “Stupid” competition; ‘not Ds’ can easily be fucking ignoramuses, as you’ve just shown (assuming you’re not lying).
          Stuff your TDS up your ass. Your head is already there and wants some company

      5. Tony
        June.22.2020 at 3:37 pm
        “Liberals have for some time been talking about smart regulation,..”

        Substitute “lying” for “talking” and you might be taken seriously, shitbag.

  13. Repeat after me:

    Coronaviruses are sharply seasonal.

    Coronaviruses are sharply seasonal.

    Coronaviruses are sharply seasonal.

    Coronaviruses are sharply seasonal.

    CORONAVIRUSES ARE SHARPLY SEASONAL.

    The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 222, Issue 1, 1 July 2020, Pages 9–16, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa161

    1. (Yes, the citation is dated July 1, but the paper was published online on April 4.)

    2. ‘Seasonal’ doesn’t actually mean the same thing everywhere in the US. Where ‘summer’ means ‘fucking hot outside, let’s go inside and turn on the AC’ is very different from ‘open the windows, turn on the fan – and hey let’s go outside and sit on the porch for awhile’.

      And yes – I completely agree that respiratory droplet-spread stuff is going to be sharply seasonal.

  14. Texas hit a *single day* high of 58 deaths in mid-May. Its 7-day average has never been above 40. It dropped to 20 as recently as 6/13, but is up to 30 since then.

    1. And keep in mind that with numbers that low, most of the day to day variation is going to be just random. Add up a week’s data to get, say, 210, and a large part of that is still random variations.

    2. Not only is there the typical day to day average but Texas has the dumping factor. Deaths are reported as the day they are reported. They don’t go back and change numbers. So if a county or hospital turns in all it’s deaths on Friday then that is when it is counted. This is why the weekends are consistently much lower.

      1. I noticed this in the fine print of the Michigan deaths. If someone died of “pneumonia” in February with no COVID test available, and samples they kept tested positive in April, the death was counted in April.

  15. Four deaths in Canada….AND STILL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO BABBLE. Second waves this, second rogues waves that.

    And the ONE demographic that wasn’t touched and isn’t exactly in danger of it may pay huge price in September when school is back. It’s beyond the pale that adult pantshitters project their fears onto kids.

    It makes no sense that they’re planning like they are in this way.

    2020 has been one gigantic downer.

    1. 2020 has been one gigantic downer.

      We’ve lost the year. Governments won’t calm down for at least another six months.

      1. 2020 will be the shittiest of my 62 years alive. Started with my dad passing on January 2, and hasn’t gotten any better since.

  16. asshole Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins put us all *back* in mouth-diapers if we want to shop, and mandated the shopkeeps shoot us if we try with bare mouths and noses.

    1. Everyone knows the real profits roll in when you kill your customers.

      1. lol. first order keep license.

    2. You obviously have no compassion! Dallas hospitals are going to be overwhelmed any day now! Why do you hate the children?!

      1. i lost a friend because his esposa is a hospital administrator and my golfing during the lockdown was going to cause needless risks to her

    3. Village idiot Hildago did it down in Houston too.

      Such a gigantic waste of time and money. And can we disband the damned TABC already? What do they do that a county Sheriff couldn’t do just as well?

  17. Looking at the data on worldometers.info and have noticed the national graphs show weekly deaths keeping peaking on Tuesday and then dropping thru the week until the next Tuesday when they jump up again. Maybe just get rid of Tuesday and we will have this virus beat?

  18. It is very good news that the number of deaths due to Covid-19 virus is on the decline.

    I don’t suppose any of that is because the ability of medical professionals to diagnose, treat and triage known or suspected cases has improved in a short period of time.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMcp2009575?query=featured_coronavirus

  19. GOD DAMMIT SULLUM…THIS IS NO TIME FOR FACTS! now put your mask on and drive home alone.

    and lets hope that canada doesn’t have another four deaths…that will be a 100% increase in just 2 months. more people died of herpes for fucks sake

  20. This is an excellent summary of where we stand today and prospects for the future. It is a pity that more conventional news outlets like the NYT and WP have coverage that drips with phrasing that make me suspicious that their stories are not misleading in significant ways. Why is it that best fact journalism today comes from libertarian opinion journals? (Perhaps because because they have no real stake current Democratic and Republican politics?)

  21. It’s all well and good that deaths are declining, but let’s not pretend the trends don’t portend problems. We’re getting younger people infected at the moment, but the oldsters in Florida and Arizona are not any more immune than those in NYC. The more younger people who have it, the more likely it is to spread to at risk populations.

    1. Not if the at-risk isolate. Why are they placing their continued well-being on the backs of the relatively healthy? Unless we believe that there will be a widely deployed effective vaccine by next Winter, our best bet is achieving herd-immunity ASAP without overburdening the hospital system. Once we get there, the at-risk can also return to normal life.

      1. I got a $100 bill that says there won’t be a viable vaccine before the end of 2020.

        Especially with this rush to get one out, and cutting every corner possible on study design, I will want to see at least 6 months of adminsitrations before I would consider taking it.

        1. End of 2020? That seems quite optimistic to me. It’s not like flu vaccines, where producing vaccines from a new virus strain is routine. There are about 9 corona virus diseases of humans and NO vaccines. It’s either going to take time to learn some new tricks, or it will turn out that it’s no more possible to vaccinate against corona virus than it is against rhinovirus.

  22. What happened is the grim reaper harvested all the low-hanging fruit from the nursing homes. The average infected person is now much healthier.

    I’ll bet nursing home slots are cheaper than they’ve been for a long time.

    1. ^^^^^ I agree with this. The COVID stats from the CDC have been consistent for the last month that 80% of the deaths are in people 65 & older.
      https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

    2. And the highest death rates are from states like NY and Michigan where the government had COVID-19 cases moved from hospitals to nursing homes.

  23. Does anyone else remember how, prior to COVID-19, we were NOT immortal? Especially old people? It feels like any number greater than zero will continue to be news forever. Why don’t they post how many people die every day from “regular” flu? You know, the 90% of those tests of sick people that came back negative? In a nasty flu season, that can be well over 1,000 deaths a week. Seasonal flu! Give perspective. Speak openly about how it will probably end up being over 50% of all COVID-19 fatalities are directly associated with long-term care facilities? Dozens of the most frail, the sickest among us, die every day. Many were going to die this year whether it was COVID-19 or not. I don’t mean this is a morbid, uncaring way, but simply the Circle of Life kind of way. Tell people how most new infections, especially “spikes,” are from food processing facilities and other essential places of business where people work in close proximity with their coworkers all day long. Random, walking around infections are virtually nonexistent. Tell the people that where there has been detailed contact tracing analysis, it leads back to close contact with a sick person almost every single time. Healthy people in masks, eyeing suspiciously other healthy people in masks, is completely pointless. The long-term care facilities are already locked down tight and taking every precaution. My own mother is locked away in a facility in AZ. I can’t visit, she can’t leave. Wearing a mask in a grocery store, or being prevented from going to dinner at Applebee’s makes no difference whatsoever to her or any other of the most vulnerable. Why is the media unwilling to tell people THESE things?

    1. Does anyone have a fucking citation for anything?

      1. “Does anyone have a fucking citation for anything?”

        This is RICH!
        Tony, the eternal and constant liar asking for citations? That’s as hilarious as trueman asking for cites!
        Fuck off, you lying piece of shit.

      2. Citation for the obvious?

        Tony, do you wear a mask AND shield at the same time?

    2. most of people were died in India and they deserve because they are doing bad in Kashmir

  24. There are a variety reasons that people fall for this crap. Some are gullible and some are just wired to err on the side of extreme caution. Those people are fine. Then there are the ones that are begging for it is be as bad as possible. They love the drama. Some actually believe that if it gets bad enough that everyone will side with their side of the political slime pit. These are the people that are dangerous.

    1. “…Then there are the ones that are begging for it is be as bad as possible. They love the drama. Some actually believe that if it gets bad enough that everyone will side with their side of the political slime pit. These are the people that are dangerous.”

      JFree hardest hit.

      1. Hey. He claims he has never had a death boner for 2 million dead lol.

  25. Also, the death rate has probably fallen for a number of unfortunate reasons. First, many of the most vulnerable are already dead, and can’t die twice. Second, drugs and treatments have improved as medicine gets a better handle on treating the virus. For example, I believe that the death rate of those on a ventilator in April 2as 80% and is now around 50%, with Remdecever and other drugs having some effect on survivability.

  26. Some red states are seeing increased cases, but people actually die more from Covid in blue states. 8 of top 10 covid death states are blue, and some of the outpace Texas despite having half the population.

    But the story is obviously not going to be “reopening states see less fatality than NY despite rising new cases and hospitalization.” Nah.

    1. COVID will disappear from the headlines along with BLM when/if Biden is elected. Won’t matter if deaths are going up, or cops are killing more black people when there’s no more evil orange man to blame. D.C. economy will suffer too with no more marches.

    2. Well if they are blue they are in trouble already. If they are red at least they have enough oxygen.

  27. I wish they would stop lying about this crap! Corona Virus is the true name, not covid19. And it’s gonna be doing its thing until a working Vaccine is made. So quit sayin that “the deaths are down since lifting lock-downs, and everything’s hunky-dory. ” …cuz that is total BS lies! Quit encouraging people to think they have nothing to worry about…cuz they DO!

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  29. The real COVID numbers are so sad for me (the vulnerable ). Two million officially recovered = almost twenty million actual recovered. The number needed to cause DOVID to cease o be present in the population = One hundred twenty million. I’d like to see a few of the “experts” pay what they owe people like me for causing the healthy population to harbor the virus by “locking down”.

  30. That seems plausible as younger, healthier people move about more now that they are allowed to do so, returning to work and visiting businesses more, especially if efforts to protect Americans who are most vulnerable to COVID-19 are successful. electrical contractor santa clarita ca

  31. The media was focused on the increase in the number of people testing positive for many weeks. Most people now understand that is the result of more people being tested. This past week I have seen article after article reporting the “spike” in new hospitalizations and how this is caused by reopening the economy to quickly. On June 19th, Barbara Ferrer, the LA County Public Health Director was asked about this. Her reply was:
    “Ferrer also acknowledged a slight increase in hospitalizations recently, adding that could be a result of hospitals testing every person who comes into the facility.”
    So in LA County if you come in to the hospital for a appendectomy or tonsillectomy, etc and test positive you are counted as a “COVID Hospitalization” even if you are asymptomatic. So according to the media these patients are contributing to the “spike in hospitalizations” caused by the easing of lockdown restrictions.
    If they are doing it in LA they are doing it other places as well. I would bet the hospitals are getting federal or state dollars for each patient who tests positive.
    https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/06/19/la-county-coronavirus-face-mask-covering-cases-covid/

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  37. I know this is a late comment.
    Death rate is a lagging indicator. Someone doesn’t test positive and die the same day. I take about 15 days to die (if your going to die) and then a few more days or weeks for the coronor to tally the death as if from Covid-19. Also, it takes a while for a chain-reaction to really get going. Open a state, get the anti-masker’s out there …. stir the pot and wait for a couple of weeks. The spikes in Arizona, Texas, Florida etc. are pretty much as predicted.

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