Coronavirus

Nursing Homes Account for 42 Percent of America's COVID-19 Fatalities

In some states, the total is as high as 65 percent. It's a stunning statistic that might force policy makers to reconsider their approach to fighting the coronavirus.

|

Almost exactly three months ago, the first major outbreak of COVID-19 within the United States occurred at a nursing home in Washington state.

Now, after more than 100,000 Americans have died from the disease that has swept across the country and wrecked wide swaths of the economy, it appears that nursing homes are still the most vulnerable places—by a wide margin.

In at least 22 states, more than half the reported COVID-19 fatalities have occurred in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, according to state-reported data aggregated by researchers at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a free market think tank focused on low-income Americans. Across the 39 states that report the location of COVID-19 deaths, 42 percent have occurred in nursing and residential care facilities, a tally that includes facilities for the care of people with disabilities as well as hospice programs.

For comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that 2.1 million Americans live in nursing homes or long-term care facilities. That's 0.6 percent of the total population.

And the 42 percent figure may even be undercounting nursing home deaths. As Avik Roy, president of FREOPP, explained in an article for Forbessome states (including New York, which has experienced a large COVID-19 outbreak) "exclude from their nursing home death tallies those who die in a hospital, even if they were originally infected in an assisted living facility."

That's probably why New York's official nursing home death rate is only 13.8 percent, the lowest count of any state that reports the location of infections and deaths. But outside of New York, more than half of all COVID-19 fatalities nationally were residents of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

These residents have been most vulnerable to COVID-19 in other countries, too. Researchers at the International Long Term Care Policy Network, a global organization that shares research and best practices, found that 40.8 percent of reported COVID-19 fatalities across 18 countries took place in nursing homes.

There are probably several reasons why nursing homes have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic. Most residents of nursing homes are elderly or infirm, with many people suffering from long-term ailments or particularly vulnerable due to weakened immune systems. People live close together, sharing living quarters and common spaces like cafeterias. And there is good evidence that the coronavirus spreads more efficiently indoors.

But some states made policy choices in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic that may have made nursing homes even more vulnerable to the disease. Governors in some states—including Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania—prevented nursing homes from turning away patients with active COVID-19 infections. Those policies likely helped spread the disease to some of the most vulnerable populations.

Other states, like Florida, have locked down nursing homes and prioritized shipments of personal protective equipment (PPE) to those facilities, putting them on the same level as hospitals. That may help explain why Florida has had fewer overall deaths than other large states—despite 40 percent of those deaths occurring in nursing homes—and it's something other states should copy.

As states emerge from total lockdowns and begin to restart their economies, policies must adapt to reflect the growing body of evidence about COVID-19 vulnerabilities. We now have a better idea about the overall fatality rate of the disease—about 0.3 percent, lower than was feared at earlier stages in the crisis. We also know more about how the disease spreads and which populations need the most protection.

That doesn't, of course, mean that anyone not living in a nursing home is safe from the virus, it does not soften the blow of the deaths that have already occurred, nor will it make deaths of friends and loved ones any easier. But the concentration of deaths in nursing homes should give younger, healthier Americans more confidence about returning to some semblance of normal life and should inform public policy decisions about how to slow the disease's spread.

"The fact that nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities means that the 99.4 percent of the country that doesn't live in those places is roughly half as likely to die of the disease," writes Roy. That means schools and many businesses can be reopened without the risk of huge spikes in hospitalizations or deaths, according to him, and that states must learn from their earlier missteps in handling nursing home outbreaks. These data have implications for policy making as states look to safely reopen their economies.

The coronavirus is going to be a long-term problem, but the next step in fighting it is for governments to lift economically ruinous lockdowns when possible and focus on saving the lives most at risk.

Advertisement

NEXT: A Defense of Judge Emmet Sullivan

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. That math doesn’t check out to me. Less than 1% of the population account for half the deaths does not mean the other 99% are only half as likely to die from it. If 1% of the entire population was dying to this we would expect 1 in every 198 non-retirement home residents to be dying while seeing 1 in every 2 retirement home resident dying. That massive of difference just does add up to only half as likely to die from the disease outside a retirement home.

    1. You are right that Boehm’s math doesn’t work. Starting just from the numbers in this article:
      – 2.1 million in nursing homes = 0.6% of the population
      – therefore, total population is approx 350 million
      – 100,000 total dead. 42% (or 42,000) from nursing homes
      – therefore, 58% (58,000) dead from outside nursing homes
      – nursing home dead / nursing home total = 42k/2.1M = 2.0%
      – non-NH dead / non-NH total = 58k/348M = 0.017%
      – ratio of 2% : 0.17% = 120:1
      In other words, the other 99.4% of the population are only 1/120th as likely to die from it – quite a bit smaller than even “only half as likely”.

      1. Thanks for the better math. It was hitting my bullshit meter something vicious, but I didn’t have the time to work out the proof.

        1. Change Your Life Right Now! Work From Comfort Of Your Home And Receive Your First Paycheck Within A Week. No Experience Needed, No Boss Over Your Shoulder.uty.. Say Goodbye To Your Old Job! Limited Number Of Spots Open…
          Find out how HERE……More here

      2. Boehm is an economist, or at least pretend to be one, which explains his failing at math.

        1. I will give Boehm this basic defense. He didn’t come up with that factoid. Its lifted directly from the Forbes article. He was just credulous enough to repeat it without even the most basic checks.

          1. It’s no different than him blindly pushing the tariffs restricted PPE imports while ignoring China nearly completely cut off exports of PPE while they stocked up. Be doesnt dive into arguments he tacitly agrees with.

            1. Make money online from home extra cash more than $18k to $21k. Start getting paid every month Thousands Dollars online. I have received $26K in this month by just working online from home in my part time.every person easily do this job by just open this link and follow details on this page to get started… Read Articles More

          2. Yeah, we should not expect “reporters” to understand what they are copy-pasting, right?

      3. If you look at the country as a whole, total number of CV dead is 100,000. The country population is 350M.
        100k/350M=0.029%. This number is roughly twice the ratio you calculated for non-NH, 0.017%. I think that’s what the quote meant.

        1. Interesting. That would redeem Boehm’s ability to do math – but incriminate his ability to write clearly.

          1. I am making a good MONEY (500$ to 700$ / hr )online on my Ipad .Last month my pay check of nearly 30 k$.This online work is like draw straight-arrow and earn money. Do not go to office.CSa I do not claim to be others,I just work. You will call yourself after doing this JOB,It’s a REAL job.Will be very lucky to refer to this WEBSITE.

            I hope,you can find something………..► ScolloconGress

        2. It is a nonsensical comparison if that’s what he meant to do.

          1. I mean, it’s essentially saying that, collectively, the 99.4% of the population that doesn’t live in a nursing home is half as likely to die of the disease as the numbers bandied about without making the distinction suggest.

            Which is still not a particularly clear way to illustrate the relative risks between the two groups. But is a little more useful in that “take the headline number and divide it by two to get my personal risk if I’m not confined to long term care” is something you can use in your daily life.

            1. Using the latest population IFR estimates out of the CDC and the age based distribution of deaths, I came up with an IFR for the below 70 population of 0.027% while for those above 70 it was about 2.2%.

              But we have known for at least a month and a half that the deaths were radically skewed toward the above 65-70. We knew in April how this all laid out…and could have adjusted the response accordingly. Glad I live in a Red State that has been opening since May 1.

              1. I Make Money At H0me.Let’s start work offered by Google!!Yes,this is definitely the most financially rewarding Job I’ve had . Last Monday I bought a great Lotus Elan after I been earning $9534 this-last/5 weeks and-a little over, $10k last month . . EDs I started this four months/ago and immediately started to bring home minimum $97 per/hr

                Heres what I do……………… Online Cash Earn

        3. except that even the CDC doesn’t even give half that 100k to covid the 100k number includes people with covid who die from other causes, including car wrecks, instead of from covid and even that number has proven to be unreliable.

      4. Here’s another stat they failed to mention:
        99.90% of Covid-19 deaths are from old people.

        Math is easy here:
        Old people: 99,000 deaths
        Really old people: 1,000 deaths
        Total: 100,000 deaths

        That means 349,900,000 people shouldn’t give one fuck about this virus.

        1. And yes my math may be off a little but the salient points remain: lockdown is for fags. Old fags.

          1. People who ride Harleys?

      5. That last calcualtion is the ratio of how likely someone is to have died so far based on whether or not they’re in a nursing home.

        Since there’s no data on how many people have been infected, and how many have yet to be among either of those two sets (achieving herd immunity in the non-NH population would likely greatly reduce further spread into the NH group), it’s not indicative of relative risk going forward. Most of the data and analysis would seem to indicate that the risk for most of the non-NH population is possibly an order of magnitude or more lower than for the NH population where the old and infirm are far more prevalent.

        None of this should be big news. From even the early data out of Wuhan, it seemed fairly clear that the people at the greatest risk from this virus are the same people who are at the greatest risk from exposure to a great many other microbes in the world. If the MSM were less committed to inspiring panic as a means to draw clicks (and maybe also drive some political agenda as well), the dots would have been connected weeks or months ago that the primary thing that’s really exceptional about this one is that there isn’t a long enough history of general exposure for most people to already have antibodies providing some protection (which is the case for most of the thousands of other strains of coronavirus in the world); additionally, it might hit the human body a bit more severely than most “common” strains.

      6. What he meant was that your actual risk is half as likely as the non-split numbers would indicate.
        For example, raw numbers indicate 100k / 300 M = 0.033%
        However, as you did the math, the actual number is closer to 0.017%

    2. CBS news last night breathlessly reported that Montana has had a 450% increase in new cases since reopening. What they didn’t mention is that we went two weeks without a new case and have had like six new cases over the past week and a half. By reporting it as a percentage they could make it look much more significant than it really was (our new cases in the weeks leading up to reopening were also in low single digits).

      1. And who thought that there would be no more cases after reopening? Of course if more people are out and about there will be more transmission. Where the fuck do people get the idea that we are supposed to sit out life until everything is OK? That’s just insane.

        1. Leftists insist that they are not saying we need to stay locked down until an effective vaccine is fully deployed, yet that is exactly what is suggested by their words and actions. Revealed preferences > words.

      2. First step to becoming a reporter: fail math.

        Second step: sell any sense of ethics.

        Third step: let your internal attention whore free.

  2. This shit has been obvious since the beginning of April to anyone that was actually paying attention. It’s why these MMQB “models” saying that 36,000 people might have been saved if we just locked down a few weeks earlier are bullshit posturing.

    I’ve been saying for weeks that we should have locked down the nursing homes and their staff, built field hospitals exclusively to treat C19-infected patients, and let everyone else get on with their lives. Forcing nursing homes to take infected patients, when this virus was clearly more dangerous to people over 70 with underlying medical issues than any other demographic, is about the closest we’ll find to intentional, government-directed mass murder as we’ve seen here in recent decades.

    Wolf’s tranny health director moved his mother out of her nursing home, knowing full well that these places were taking infected patients. Even ones who didn’t go full exceptional like Polis and DeSantis failed to engage and close these places off when the nursing homes popped up as hot spots. We basically killed the US economy to “save” a bunch of people that ended up dying anyway.

    1. I mean I would have to agree. We always did know the elderly were most at risk. It was a common discussion in my workplace before we were all sent home to ask why they didn’t just send everyone over 60 home, as they were the only ones really at risk.

      1. Normally, I’d attribute something like this to incompetence rather than malice, but the whole thing was so consistently ignored by the people who could have actually addressed it, that it’s difficult to not think the latter was somehow at play here. It’s not like this was an unknown thing, various media outlets have been bringing it up for months now, although it notably does not get the same level of coverage as mask-pimping.

      2. Workers over the age of 40 are a “protected class”, so any kind of age based policy – even one intended for the health of those being singled out – would be grounds for a discrimination lawsuit against the employer.

        I’d be willing to bet that it wasn’t ignorance, incompetence, or malice, but a healthy dose of fear of our general litigiousness that caused a lot of employers not to act more rationally.

      3. Sending only those over 60 home wouldn’t have had the impact on the economy, and Trump’s chance of getting re-elected, than sending everyone home would.
        Or are you fool enough to think that wasn’t the goal of the hyping of the chinavirus panᵈᵉᵐic in the first place?

    2. Yeah, it was staggeringly obvious from data from Italy that was available in late March. Average age over 80 and over 96% had multiple serious comorbidities.
      The most charitable interpretation is that the media and government totally fucked up in the response and in informing the public. But it sure looks like, at least on the informing the public side, their failure was deliberate and calculated. I have no problem believing that the government is so incompetent that they failed to protect the most vulnerable patients in normal ways.

      1. Hell, even the cases coming out of NYC said the same thing–98% of all the deaths had some kind of underlying medical condition. Nearly all of them were over 60. And that idiot Cuomo decided to rack up the body count by seeding these places with infected patients.

    3. Those models didn’t even actually say that any number of people might have been truly saved. What they showed was that if the lockdown had started sooner (nearly a week before WHO declared it a “pandemic” as if that matters to the reporters trying to whip up the public) then those thousands of people might not have died prior to a particular date. Another part that was misleading about the reporting on that model is that it probably assumed that effective measures to keep infection out of nursing homes would have been taken instead of what really happened which was to actively force the infection into thousands of such facilities.

      Since the whole mechanism of “flattening” the curve amounts to trading a longer duration for a less intensive impact at any given time, the only reason to believe that those people wouldn’t have died at all would be if they had been unable to receive care due to overwhelmed hospitals. Since no hospitals were overwhelmed in the U.S. the earlier lockdown would more likely have slightly postponed that number of deaths from the virus unless the nearly impossible case happened in which mass vaccinations could be accomplished before natural exposure created herd immunity and slowed the spread to a trickle.

      On the topic of models and predictions, there’s starting to be some attention paid to estimates of the damage done by the lockdowns and medical care restrictions that have been imposed. By one estimate somewhere around 30k more people might be dying of cancer this year due to interrupted chemotherapy treatments and delayed screening procedures, and that’s not even getting into the numbers from possible ODs among addicts whose treatment meetings have been banned, increased suicides due to prolonged isolation, and emergent conditions like heart attacks where the patients are avoiding ERs due to fear of catching Covid (one report said that the rate of heart attack patients coming into ERs were down 40% since March but I can’t imagine a good reason why the actual rate of heart attacks happening would have gone down over the same timeframe).

      It’ll be interesting to see what happens if any of the “one size fits all” fanatics who think that rural MT needs the same response as the NYC metro area where 20 times the population occupies 2% of the land area. Nobody on the CNN air staff seems to have considered how much easier it is to keep a responsible distance when there are 7k people living in a 10 mile radius than it is where that many people live on a 3 block stretch of one street.

      1. “Flattening the curve” was pure pretense from the get-go.

        1. The part about possibly saving people by preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed (like they apparently were in Milan, Italy) was valid. In terms of preventing people from dying of Covid due to an inability of treatment facilities to get to them, it has undeniably done that (whether or not such a situation would have happened with a less aggressive lock-down response is something that we’ll never be able to truly know)

          The problem that’s come from it is that so many people seem to think that the purpose of flattening was to reduce the total number of people who ever got infected, or that at some level it could have prevented anyone at all from dying due to the disease; also the perception that seems to have some prevalence is that there’s some duration of staying locked down after which there won’t be a new outbreak when things open back up without any need for mass vaccination (as if we could just wait until the virus ceases to exist). I can’t imagine how it’s a political issue, but in my experience with people I know, there’s an extremely high correlation between how much someone hates the current President (not sure if “hate” is a strong enough word here, but it’s the word I’ve got) and how deeply they believe that “flattening” was somehow going to render herd immunity unnecessary in the long run and that the secondary outbreaks that epidemiologists have said are inevitable whenever re-opening happens are proof that the re-opening is being done “too soon”.

  3. It’s a stunning statistic that might force policy makers will ignore as they continue to reconsider their approach to fighting the coronavirus.

    1. It’s a stunning statistic that might force policy makers will ignore as they continue to reconsider their approach to fighting the coronavirus petty dictatorship.

    2. It’s a stunning statistic that, despite being known, hasn’t yet forced policy makers to reconsider their approach to fighting the chinanavirus.

      1. It’s a stunning statistic that, despite being known, will never force policy makers to reconsider their approach to fighting the a somewhat more virulent strain of the common cold.

  4. Governors in some states—including Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania—prevented nursing homes from turning away patients with active COVID-19 infections. Those policies likely helped spread the disease to some of the most vulnerable populations.

    ‘Likely helped spread’? How about: ‘Those policies insured the spread among what were already known to be the most vulnerable populations’.

    Fact checked.

    1. I hope you have Fact Checked on your clipboard, because you will be posting that a lot here as the standard.

  5. The governors who ordered nursing homes to take COVID patients have blood on their hands, and they’re perfectly fine with that.

    1. No they don’t. It’s only a scandal in NYT says it is. They say Cuomo is a superstar!

      1. Florida hardest hit… wait… they weren’t because they did just this. But the media…

  6. Yep, I beat the ‘writers’ here to it yet again.

    1. https://www.nny360.com/news/publicservicenews/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-dip-below-100-for-24-hour-period/article_a17eaceb-f2ce-594a-bbcb-4bd46cce5b23.html

      Many COVID-19-positive nursing home residents returned home to their facilities before they recovered after a March 25 state Department of Health memo declared the state cannot discriminate against COVID-19 nursing home patients and prohibit their return, which potentially infected the most vulnerable New Yorkers — senior citizens and people with underlying conditions.

      “The policy the Department of Health put out was in line directly with the March 13 directive put out by the CDC,” Secretary to the Governor Melissa DeRosa said Saturday. “I know there’s been lot of discussion on this topic. There are over a dozen states that did the exact same thing — many of whom were concerned about hospital capacity. …It’s been a national and international tragedy that everybody has had to grapple with, and it is something that we’re trying to learn from everyday and move forward.”

      1. It’s been a national and international tragedy that everybody has had to grapple with, and it is something that we’re trying to learn from everyday and move forward.

        Why is she going on about the consequences of refusing to accept Jews fleeing Nazi Germany in the middle of our current pandemic? This is no time for a history lesson about the inevitable results of misguided government policies.

      2. There are over a dozen states that did the exact same thing

        I can’t even mock that statement. The fallacy is so obvious, most children could cite the obvious metaphor.

      3. If you were to read the actual “directive” put out by HHS, it states that it’s OK for a facility to allow patients to be transferred “from a hospital where a Covid 19 infection had been detected” if that facility had the capability to properly protect other residents from the spread of any airborne infection.

        What New York did was to mandate that all nursing homes in the state must admit patients known to be infected with the virus and further prohibited any testing of patients whose status was unknown so long as the hospital sending them had determined them safe to be transported.

        Notice the difference there, where one directive is made conditional on the belief that a facility has the capability to prevent further spread and only allows for admission if that condition is met and the other is made unconditional and prohibits measures that would normally be necessary to prevent further spread? To be fair to the NY Health Dept, prohibiting testing at that point in time was irrelevant since the CDC was still making it nearly impossible for most of those facilities to have access to testing anyway.

    2. Hey Boehm, want to see my open tabs for tomorrow’s roundup?

      1. I don’t see how a gay, midget schizer video will improve the round-up. Then again, it can”t get much worse.

        1. I don’t see how a gay, midget schizer video will improve the round-up

          Leave Soave out of this.

          1. It’s not my fault that he’s in the video. He and Suderman are the cucks watching in the corner.

            1. The Hair is directing?

              1. The hair is the star. Duh.

                1. The Jacket is working the camera. He loves the avant garde.

    3. As did everyone who actually sought out real data.

  7. The coronavirus is going to be a long-term problem

    Assumes facts not in evidence. As usual. You are such a disappointment, Billy B.

    1. However, what he probably intended, the government’s bumbling incompetent response to C19 is going to be a long term problem’ is quite true.
      No matter what happens in November.

      1. Theres still 5 months left to gaslight dummies into blaming the federal response for the state level policies.

    2. “The coronavirus” has become shorthand for “the idiotic and disastrous response to the coronavirus pandemic”. Or at least how I’ve been reading it.

    3. I noticed that too. Wonder what he considers long-term.

  8. https://twitter.com/JerylBier/status/1265703390077739010

    The original order (with @NYGovCuomo’s name right on it!) literally did not even allow incoming patients to be *tested* much less rejected.

    1. So facilities could not internally isolate COVID patients even if they wanted to.

      Criminal.

      1. Reason will devote multiple articles to cops killing one person, but cannot even muster one article clearly placing the blame for hundreds, if not thousands of deaths. Not when it involves the fallback option for old dopey gropey Joe.

        1. Kill one man, and you are a murderer. Kill millions of men, and you are a conqueror. Kill them all, and you are a God.

          1. Throw a couple stealth painted rocks at Earth, killing billions, declare your terrorist group the “Free Navy” and you become a hero briefly to the belters. (Sorry only half way through book six).

      2. Yet Cuomo apparently remains popular. What the fuck is wrong with people? He fucked over his state, totally failed to mitigate damage from the virus where he could have, and most of NYC got it anyway. What a useless piece of shit. If people paid any attention it would be torches and pitchforks time at the governor’s mansion.

        1. “”He fucked over his state,””

          Not the way many in NYC see it. Trump is screwing them over. Don’t bother pointing out it the circus in NYC is being managed by Cuomo and Deblasio.

        2. He’s only popular amongst the progs and the media. The progs will do absolutely anything to avoid another trump term.

          So, they will do whatever they can to destroy the economy or compound the death count for this virus – as long as it looks bad on trump.

          Hell, go onto Reddit or Quora and you’ll get to see first hand their conversations about throwing their own children into oncoming traffic in the event the economy rebounds.

        3. He and DiBlasio (sic) did not only fuck over their state. Recent studies of the genetic variations of the Chicom Flu show that almost all of the infections nationwide spread from NY.

  9. New York’s official nursing home death rate is only 13.8 percent

    New York ‘public health experts’ are about as credible as their PRC communist party member counterparts. When myself and others point out that socialism has a storied history of killing people and then lying and trying to hide the truth, this is the kind of thing we are talking about.

    1. “”New York’s official nursing home death rate is only 13.8 percent””

      It’s all in the wording.

      It’s actually percentage of deaths that occurred IN the nursing homes.
      I’m sure that excludes the nursing home patients that died in hospitals, ambulances, or the sidewalk outside of the nursing home. Should check the fine print. The “in the nursing home” might count only if you died in your room and outside might include inside if 911 was called.

  10. Seems like some useful context would be to see what percentage of deaths in a normal flu season are in nursing homes. I’m sure it’s pretty high.
    Not that that excuses the collossal fuckup of stupidly trying to protect everyone while utterly failing to protect those who need protecting.

    1. That would actually be fascinating, because the line I keep seeing trot out is that its standard policy to send elderly with infectious diseases straight to the nursing homes the second they are stable due to how medicaid is set up. It’s very possibly that Covid just revealed that the standard in most states is to knowingly expose elderly folks to things that are very likely to kill them.

    2. https://blog.levinperconti.com/nursing-home-flu-season/

      About 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older.

    3. Imagine if they counted flu deaths like covid…

      Heart attack: Chances of a heart attack are increased six-fold during the first seven days after a flu infection, via a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine found.

    4. “The CDC suggest all nursing home facilities have a flu care strategy and flu outbreak prevention plan. It remains important to remember the plan will only be carried out by honest, caring administrators and fully staffed departments. If a plan becomes foiled due to understaffing or neglect of addressing flu-related complications, families could hold facilities accountable.”

      Ironic now that Cuomo gave liability protections to nursing care execs….

    5. A study on influenza and nursing homes here:

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5596516/

    6. During any flu season we isolated all positive flu cases and limited outside visitors. We also have everyone the flu shot. Anyone refusing was placed in isolation.
      In a bad flu season we would move all positive cases to a separate wing, behind closed doors and staff assigned to that wing could not leave that wing. All doors were closed and residents kept to their rooms.

  11. It’s a stunning statistic that might force policy makers to reconsider their approach to fighting the coronavirus.

    It should but it won’t. That would require them to admit they were wrong.

  12. It was apparent 2 months ago that the virus is much less deadly for most people than originally feared. If the media was worth a shit (and Reason hasn’t been much better) this would be the top story, not bullshit propaganda for more tyranny.

    1. It would be nice if reason would show 1/100th of the outrage over the state of New York using the force of law to kill 10,000 people that it does over some Donald Trump tweet that he forgot five minutes after hitting send.

      The total bend over backwards to be even handed tone of this and the complete lack of outrage on the author’s part is sickening. It really is. This article reads like the preventable death of these people is just something that happened. Bad luck as Heinlein would say. And just means the government will have to do better next time. Fucking pathetic.

      1. Phailing Phil Murphy in the People’s Republic of NJ did precisely the same thing. His bad decisions, not based on the data and the science, cost thousands of lives in our NJ nursing homes. Incredibly, that bastard enjoys 70% approval in NJ. Personally, I think the son of a bitch should be stripped of his sovereign immunity and held legally responsible.

        We truly deserve the representation we elect.

        1. The left has driven the death totals, and driven the totalitarian lockdowns.
          And Reason is their bitch

  13. death. panels.

  14. Do you think that’s going to stop the technocrats and politicians from trying to grab power? The arguments some of their fellow-travelers use, like “why should we sacrifice the elderly?” suggest that they are of the belief that saving one more life justifies all of the draconian measures – although these measures cause far more death because of economic pain due to shutting down the economy.

    1. And the elderly are, by definition, going to die before too long. It sucks when your 85 year old grandma dies, but it could have been anything and anyone not in complete denial about mortality knows it. Deaths among the elderly are not a tragedy. That’s how life works. Sorry, that’s just how it is.

      1. “[…] That’s how life works. Sorry, that’s just how it is.”

        you first.

      2. When my 92 year-old father passed away last year, people asked why he died. He died from being 92, morons.

  15. The fact that nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities means that the 99.4 percent of the country that doesn’t live in those places is roughly half as likely to die of the disease

    There is no basis for this assertion whatsoever. Nor is there a basis for even an IFR argument on the deaths that have occurred WITHIN those facilities. Because there is afaik not one fucking serology study that has even attempted to figure out what % of that specific population – residents and staff – has been exposed. I assume that that population is less likely to have an asymptomatic case – but who the fuck knows. Even the notion that 3-4% of the total population has been exposed means fucking nothing if they are mostly the 12% of the workforce in the medical sector because even a halfwit would expect those employees to be exposed more and earlier to any contagion. And if surviving nursing facilities residents are the ‘closest’ age-demographic to herd immunity – well that sure as hell doesn’t say much about the rest of the herd in – oh – the next couple years.

    The only thing that is clear – even in the (mostly) absence of good data yet – is that the multiple failures to protect what were the obviously vulnerable is damnable on both a personal and political level. Since NY is almost certainly just lying, the only state that has done even an acceptable job re that pop is Nevada. Everyone else – without any exceptions – should be preparing nooses for every single governor/etc. This should be a year where every single incumbent gets booted because they conspired to kill grandma – not to mention all the other shit they’ve screwed up. What do you actually hear? Crickets.

    Even on this thread, the R’s are pointing fingers at D’s – in OTHER states – as the source of the problem. And I’m sure on Mother Jones or wherever, the D’s there are doing the same – pointing to R’s as the problem. DeRp’s – which basically means the entire generation of current American voters – that means most of YOU commenters – are transparently incapable of holding anyone accountable and incapable of even understanding that that is a basic function of self-governance.

    It is times like this that I really wish this disease was far more deadly. Because we pretty clearly need tens of millions of dead Americans to even get started to get rid of the fucking problem.

    1. You just want it deadlier to justify your pants shitting. Also, I think the fact that the government overreacted is far more likely to show incompetence than if it turned out to be as deadly as you and your compatriots claimed.
      You really have gone off the deep end.

    2. You and Pelosi think alike.

      “Just as Mr. Clyburn said, this is an opportunity, every crisis is,” Pelosi added.

    3. And if surviving nursing facilities residents are the ‘closest’ age-demographic to herd immunity – well that sure as hell doesn’t say much about the rest of the herd in – oh – the next couple years.

      What a stupid assertion. By the time someone has to be put in a nursing home for long-term care, the odds are that they’re already in the type of physical condition that’s going to make them more vulnerable to a novel illness. Meanwhile, the number of deaths for people below the age of 50, especially without underlying medical conditions, is statistically negligible.

      Insinuating that a nursing home is a precursor for how herd immunity will work out for the rest of the population is exactly what we should have expected from doomers. And based on this statement–“Everyone else – without any exceptions – should be preparing nooses for every single governor/etc.”–I’m curious as to when exactly you’re going to be pulling out your pitchfork to put it through Polis’s heart, or if you’re just blowing smoke.

      1. the number of deaths for people below the age of 50, especially without underlying medical conditions, is statistically negligible.

        Statistically negligible adds up to a lot of deaths and hospitalizations when you have zero starting immunity and a couple hundred million people in that age group.

        I’m curious as to when exactly you’re going to be pulling out your pitchfork to put it through Polis’s heart, or if you’re just blowing smoke.

        I sure as fuck wouldn’t vote for his re-election. CO provided very good data with good drill-down capabilities early. That’s it. And in large part, that data is what proved what a shitty job CO did with its attempt to buy time with a lockdown. Plateaued testing starting in late March for over a month instead of either ramping up contact tracing/testing or focusing on clearing positives out of hospitals and other epicenters and clusters. Reported increasing numbers of outbreaks in those medical care facilities but didn’t do shit to reduce them. Now reporting outbreaks in in places like grocery stores (12 with 105 confirmed cases and 5 deaths) but didn’t even expand testing there until the last couple weeks. It is transparent that many employers who have remained open didn’t do shit with that time either – eg JBS/Cargill 363 cases and 10 deaths so far. And most private sector (non-elderly stuff) facilities have just started reporting outbreaks in the last couple weeks – so the lags still haven’t even kicked in.

        There is little positive overall in any of this data whatsoever. Not on the political side – where I for one certainly will hold people accountable – and YOU WON’T. Not on the employer side where it is obvious that lower-income employees are totally on their own in this.

        A lockdown bought time – and that time didn’t even buy much ramp on a learning curve. It’s why I’m not changing my earlier projections at all. Not one bit. This country is STILL unprepared for a real pandemic – and commenters here are still in utter denial about that. Asia is gonna come out the big winner in this – even though they still have a lot of dying to do in the next wave.

        1. Statistically negligible adds up to a lot of deaths

          ZIIIIINNNNGG go the goalposts! That doesn’t change the fact that the vast majority of the deaths are over 50, with underlying health conditions, and at least 40%, if not more, of all deaths were nursing home residents. Whinging about MUH CUPPA HUNNERD MILLYUN doesn’t change those facts.

          A lockdown bought time

          Classic question-begging.

          1. What you can’t handle is the simple reality that small percentages (which you can ignore and or sell as nothing) add up to hundreds of thousands of deaths in that age group (which even you find impossible or perhaps just unseemly to ignore).

            That’s not ‘moving goalposts. It’s just you – incapable of tolerating the actual implications of you denying reality while trying to sell your alternative of ‘this is nothing at all’.

            1. Stuff your PANIC!!! flag up your ass, stick first and sit on it, you cowardly piece of lefty shit.

        2. Broke: “Everyone should be preparing nooses for these governors.”
          Woke: “I sure as fuck wouldn’t vote for his re-election.”

        3. So what do you think can be done to make the number of deaths better (and by more than what is caused by whatever it is that is done)? Seems to me that this only ends when enough people have been exposed to it to get some herd immunity going. Which means some will die. 100,000 is a lot, but it’s less than twice a bad flu season, which hardly anyone bats an eye at.
          People should have done better and had more of a plan for keeping it out of hospitals and nursing homes. Other than that, I don’t think there is much to be done about a airborne respiratory pandemic. Better to get it over with sooner than later. It could be over this summer if people would just accept slightly more risk than usual and get on with life. It seems very unlikely now that hospitals being overwhelmed will be a widespread problem. Sometimes shit happens that is unpleasant.

  16. It is times like this that I really wish this disease was far more deadly.

    We know chicken little.

    Because we pretty clearly need tens of millions of dead Americans to even get started to get rid of the fucking problem.

    You’ll never be immortal chicken little.

    1. Obviously a reply to chicken little.

    2. If I’m collateral dead, so be it. But YOU are definitely part of the problem.

      1. You really accusing someone who has, from the start pointed out the stupidity of the government’s actions that you were cheering on, as being part of the problem?
        God you are worse than Hinh at this point. If you want to see what the problem is, look in the fucking mirror. It is patsies like you that are the fucking problem, asshat.

        1. Yeah. He obviously has no self realization at all. Then again he still claims he was right the whole time.

        2. that you were cheering on

          Link to that or STFU you kiddie-diddling Trumpbot

          1. Lol. Told you. He is denying his past statements.

            1. I’m playing the same game as you NAMBLA advocating Trumpbots.

              1. Lol. Now you’re projecting Palin.. hes the pedophile dumbfuck.

              2. Can you tell us again how exposure curves for new viruses (ignoring that viruses constantly mutate) are our exponential and not parabolic due to a shifting R0 and that infections wont stop until 100% of people are infected. That was my favorite comment from you.

                Or tell us again about all the multi national corporations you think you run making you an economics expert. That one was fun too.

      2. Lol.

        When the problem you have is reality and the fact that evolution exists, you have bigger problems. Mental ones.

        Go read up on the red queen theory some point. Maybe you stop being frightened.

        You are the one seemingly eager to exploit fear and death in order to implement a desired set of controls, not me, Chicken little.

        I love how you think the problem is advocating for liberty. Lol. The problem is understanding life has risks. Lol. God what a sad life you must live. Turn off the computer, go outside sweetie.

  17. In other words – we screwed over 99% of the population in the name of protecting the elderly sick, but we killed them anyways by sending infected people to nursing homes.

    And all those medical ships left without admitting a handful of patients.

  18. “Now, after more than 100,000 Americans have died from the disease that has swept across the country and wrecked wide swaths of the economy…”

    No no no. Democratic governors helped wreck wide swaths of the economy. Liberal and left wing pundits kept beating the drum. People were cowed into submission. Stop assuming it was a fucking virus that did it. It was purposeful and deliberate. Now they are afraid the economy will come roaring back and give Trump a boost. That is how fucking lame the democrats are.

    1. No matter how they parse, spin, detract, deflect, scream, bitch, moan, point fingers, cum, piss and shit in usual smug progressive fashion, the fact will always remain red states outperformed the supposedly ‘smarter’ blue states.

      Not just outperformed. CRUSHED them. They were more pragmatic and sensible up to this point.

      Democrats panicked, did stupid things that was known not to do (like, I don’t know, put sick patients back into nursing homes) and double-down with dubious lockdowns.

      None of it backed by science. They say they ‘follow the science’ but what I saw was them following some parrot on a cereal box.

      In Canada, it’s a tad different. In Ontario, with 14 million residents, the numbers are low comparatively speaking to neighbouring states and Toronto despite its size wasn’t hit hard like Detroit, Montreal or Boston or NYC. Yet, Premier Ford – ostensibly a conservative – is running around with a diaper on his head.

      Here in QC, I think c. 75% of cases are from nursing homes. We locked down but we did have some degree of freedom to move around. We’re run by a pro-business right-wingish government and so they opened up quicker than other places despite us still being a little behind other places in terms of the cases coming down. It was a sound move on their part.

      But we’re taking part in all the plexiglass, mask and gloves kabuki theatre.

      1. “We’re run by a pro-business right-wingish government…”

        Quebec has a right-wingish government? I don’t follow Canadian politics closely, but it has always been my understanding that Quebec was generally to the left of the rest of Canada a la France.

    2. Yes, thanks you. We need to stop talking about this as if it is all the natural, normal consequence of a perhaps moderately serious pandemic. This is all the consequence of deliberate decisions made by politicians.

  19. I think it’s less than ‘half as likely’.

    Like a lot less likely.

  20. Any moron knows you don’t put contagious people with elderly. the people in charge are either incompetent morons or guilty of murder. the contagious and their care takers could have easily been put in separate facilities.

  21. MAKE IT STOP.

    Please. I can’t bear any more projections, statistics, models, scary numbers, or assertions about how this is a continuing problem.

    I don’t want to live in a world where mask-wearing is virtue-signaling and may even be required by law. The vast majority of masks are not going to protect you from anything and are unlikely to stop you from spreading anything. Loose cloth is useless but is what most people have. A bandana is not going to help. So please – make it stop.

    When will we admit that we are mortal, that we cannot accurately predict the future, that people will get sick, that there will always be new viruses, and that being born is a death sentence? When will we see reporting that flips the statistics (e.g. 0.3% fatality rate vs. 99.7% chance of survival)?

    Finally, why are my libertarian friends at reason so committed to the Covid scare? Why are they supporting the wearing of masks when the science is sketchy at best? When the experts who advise wearing one recently told us not to bother? How about the fact that most of us have maybe one mask that we wear over and over so it’s absolutely filthy? Where is the skepticism?

    I just want it to be over. Let’s all go about our lives, take our chances, and move on. Some people will get sick and die. This is true whether we wear facemasks or not. We have gone way, way, WAY too far. I don’t understand how more people are not standing up screaming, “ENOUGH!”

    1. But JFree would shit his pants!

  22. Once again, hindsight is 2020 – Governors in some states—including Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania—prevented nursing homes from turning away patients with active COVID-19 infections. electrician in fairfax va

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.