Coronavirus

Our Best Weapon Against Coronavirus Is To Test Everybody

And it's not too late.

|

The number of reported cases of COVID-19 caused by the novel coronavirus has now risen globally to 272,000 and to more than 18,000 in the U.S. Worldwide, the number of deaths exceeds 11,000 and deaths in the U.S. amount to 233 people so far. In an effort to stem the tide of the epidemic, the entire state of California is now in lockdown.

After a botched bureaucratic rollout, testing of patients experiencing respiratory illnesses for COVID-19 is expanding in the U.S. We are, nevertheless, still lagging well behind some other countries who are using aggressive testing combined with contact monitoring to flatten the curve of the epidemic. Researchers suspect that for every case identified through contact with the healthcare system, there are as many as five to 10 mild or asymptomatic cases that go undetected by diagnostic tests.

It's time for a widespread rollout of serologic testing to get a better handle on the actual extent of the epidemic. People's immune systems produce antibodies to attack and eliminate pathogens like bacteria and viruses. Each antibody recognizes one antigen, which is basically a target molecule that identifies a specific pathogen. In this case, serologic tests would be designed to detect in patients' blood samples the distinctive antibodies produced in response to exposure to the novel coronavirus. General population screening using serologic tests would yield vital information enabling more judicious forecasts of the epidemic's likely course as well as improved understanding of its virulence.

Importantly, such testing would also enable researchers to better estimate the COVID-19 case-fatality rate or the percentage of infected people who die of the disease. As it is, case-fatality rate estimates range from something not much worse than seasonal flu to catastrophically high rates worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic. Pinning that rate down would help us more intelligently evaluate the usefulness (or lack thereof) of lockdowns like that in California.

Additionally, the development of such serologic tests is necessary in order to check if potential coronavirus vaccines can stimulate people's immune systems to produce protective antibodies.

It's good news that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) earlier this week loosened its stifling regulations on developing and deploying both diagnostic and serologic coronavirus tests. The FDA notes that around 80 companies have approached the agency about devising and distributing such tests. For example, the Los Angeles-based diagnostics startup Scanwell has devised an at-home 15-minute antibody test for the coronavirus. Despite looser FDA regulations, the company expects that the agency will approve its test in six to eight weeks. The North Carolina-based point-of-care diagnostics company BioMedomics is also waiting for FDA approval for its 15-minute serologic test for use in hospitals and clinics. It's worth noting that its Chinese sister company has already sold 500,000 of the rapid tests in China and the test is widely available in Europe.

Since most experts believe that reinfection is unlikely, serologic testing would identify people who had recovered from the disease and could now go safely back to work and life beyond quarantine.

NEXT: Plastic Bag Bans Are the Latest Regulations to Get Tossed During Coronavirus Pandemic

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. Our Best Weapon Against Coronavirus Is to Test Everybody

    A train travels west from NY at 60 MPH, while another train travels east from Chicago at 75 MPH. How many people are coronavirus carriers?

    1. In correct the answer is the NY train turns around because Joe Biden forgot his brief case in DC.

      1. Where the hell was the lock downs, flight banning, school shut downs, business shut downs, etc… during the 2009 swine flu pandemic? Over 18,000 Americans died, over 300,000 were hospitalized, over 60 million Americans were infected with the swine flu. The news media did not make a big deal of it. Hardly anyone today can even remember the swine flu. The reason is because we had a half black POTUS and the news media did not want to report anything bad about him. Obama did nothing until 1,100 people had died. Then he issued a medical emergency declaration. Even after that, the news media did not report on it like they are doing now. I would like to know why none of what is happening now did not take place in 2009. I asked that same question on another blog and the response was that this virus is more dangerous then the swine flu. Tell that to the loved ones of the 18,000 that died.

        1. 80,000 Americans died of the flu last year. Nobody lost their shit over that.

          1. Tens of millions had it. Do the math and the percentage is quite low compared to known cases of this bad boy. That’s why Ron is suggesting that everyone get tested. Then we’d know exactly how deadly this thing really is. It’s actually a good idea, so long as it isn’t coerced.

            1. …or sample appropriately.

              1. That would be the trick. One thing I remember about that class was that that’s the hardest part.

                1. Just going to a grocery store and testing about 100 people would probably be okay for most populations. There are probably many sample size calculators online.

                  1. In this thread, sarcasmic no shit straight up asks for links to Shreeks child pornography.

              2. Sampling is ok if all you want as an outcome is general info.

                Testing obviously has a cost and the rampup takes time. Which means testing needs to be prioritized – and prioritized in a way that best serves a public health purpose.

                On Libertopia, there are tons of market/pricing means that further that public health purpose and no one even needs to know what ‘public health’ is because Invisible Hand has already said Here. Hold my beer. I’ve got this.

                On planet Earth, public health does need to be defined and prioritized – and by govt. No doubt many will fuck it up. But IMO, the priority (in all places where containment is no longer an option) should be:
                1. Test all medical workers
                2. Test all incoming patients into hospitals
                3. Test all front-facing workers in companies that will continue to draw business from the symptomatic in home-isolation (grocery, pharma, etc)
                4. Test all symptomatics in outpatient and doctor/clinic settings
                5. Test all contact traces from those above

                That alone will massively overwhelm any testing capability for the next few weeks since that is millions of tests required and we are in the tens of thousands. And as things develop, no doubt other priorities will pop up ahead of general/universal testing or testing allocated by individual pricing. But the point of public health is to get the biggest bang for the buck to achieve public health. Rather to serve some ideological preference.

                1. No shit, and so does testing 350M people, a significant percent of which you’d have to drag their ass to get them tested if you could find them. There are no Disney turnstiles involved here where everyone passes through a checkpoint.

                  Of course you’d have to do this about 8 times to clear the group, because there’d be assholes who get their negative results and go have a beer party to celebrate. And you’d immediately have another group of assholes who insists that all flights and migration continue immediately or the WH is xenophobic, and this shit starts up again. Politicizing opportunities will abound on several orders of magnitude just as soon as the needle modifies its acceleration, and it is this that will keep the infection rates alive and well. The animals just can’t help themselves. And then the conspiracists will come out of the woodwork about who caused it, who got first dibs on meds, where the money went, involvement of Big Pharma, and government conspiracies going both directions.

                  I don’t see normalization happening until the planet is cleared, till everyone has had it, or they develop a vaccine [and then you still have the antivaxers to contend with]

                2. Sampling is ok if all you want as an outcome is general info.

                  Fuck that noise. Nobody wants to test far and wide just because they’ve got a lot of COVID-19 kits lying around and a bunch of empty hard drives that really ought to have some data on them.

            2. We already know that. Some 3k were quarantined on a ship, 700 of them caught the disease, and 7 died.

              1. True. The Diamond Princess was nearly a perfectly controlled experiment. It does seem the death rate is about 1% in most of China and Korea that have recovered. Then there’s Italy and who knows what the hell is happening there. There was a wired article that claimed it was because their young frequently live with their old. Could be, I guess.

                1. the death rate is lower than 1% – because tons of people never get tested who have the virus.

                  The Diamond Princess study estimate is true fatality rate ~0.5%, and that was a relatively older population.

                  Also, the overall death rate is a nearly useless statistic, because severity of infection skews strongly towards older people and people with certain pre-existing conditions (which also tend to be found in older people). So the P(death|infection) is going to depend strongly on age, which means older populations are going to have a higher death rate. And it won’t be a small difference either. The average age of fatality in Italy is *81* out of a population with an average age of 49. That’s a huge age-bias. And severity of infections not resulting in death is probably also age biased in a similar way.

                  So even with good data (which means age-cohort based outcome likelihoods), you’re not going to make good predictions without accounting for the age distribution of the population.

                  1. Squirreloid…We’ll have much better data in 10 days, which is pretty fast. I am searching for the online data the CDC promised to post. I’d like to do some ad hoc analyses of my own. Agree that overall stats are not needed for granular analyses – you really do need to dig into the data.

                    The scary part about Diamond Princess (I read the clinical study data on the CDC.gov website) was that strict quarantine failed on deck 4. And that the most commonly afflicted crew member type was beverage server, and food service. Implies strict cleaning of plates, glasses, silverware is an absolute ‘must do’.

                  2. Some places (govt sources) are beginning to provide age-based info and tracking it a bit through outcomes. eg Colorado – 30 somethings are 18% of positives. Of those positives, 6% are currently hospitalized. Italy has very good info now re hospitalization outcomes (home-isolation, non-ICU hospital, ICU, recovered, dead) a bit further down the road even for Lombardy. Skorea and Singapore have good info re GIS tracking

                    As long as everything everywhere is still ad-hoc and crisis-driven, it’s gonna be impossible to get a handle on anything so that place A can learn from place B. Or maybe so that DApps can be developed for everyone else so they can avoid ‘hot spots’ etc.

                    There are market-based solutions even to achieving this sort of govt public health data infrastructure. But it’s very obvious that the big market players who might fund that are far more interested in just sticking their nose in the public trough to use the crisis to get what they wanted anyway or to have govt be their bailout.

                    1. re the Colorado data
                      30 somethings are 18% of total positives – 6% hospitalized
                      40 somethings are 17% of total positives – 3% hospitalized
                      50 somethings are 18% of total positives – 16% hospitalized
                      60 somethings are 14% of total positives – 29% hospitalized
                      70 somethings are 11% of total positives – 24% hospitalized
                      80+ are 3% of total positives – 36% hospitalized

                      Obviously skews to more serious symptomatic and testing hasn’t even occurred for even medical workers or other general peeps. But at least its a data subsample

                    2. The CDC already requires reporting centrally. I just want it published, and easily accessible. A lot of us are data geeks and can do ad hoc analysis.

                    3. One ‘big-ish data’ number. About 195,000 total tests conducted (not including private hospitals), about 19,000 positive: ~10% incidence. For now. Glad to see we’re ramping up.

              2. Some 3k were quarantined on a ship, 700 of them caught the disease, and 7 died so far

                1. 8 have died now. 137 still sick, 14 of them listed as serious. Diamond Princess story isn’t finished yet.

                  1. That 137 is a real problem. There’s no way you can do home isolation for that length of time on 20% of positives – assuming that those folks are even sub-hospital cases now. Hell, you can’t do home isolation for someone who tests positive who hasn’t been home for awhile – which is gonna be a huge problem for medical workers in a week.

                    This would be another example where it would have been real good to have a militia. Civil construction is one of the obvious training paths for that. And golly here we have an emergency where a whole ton of people are willing to work for free as long as it is focused on something like say building field quarantine facilities on say muni golf courses.

            3. Right now, without testing, I’m being told to stay at home and practice social distancing.

              I have no symptoms and if I were to go to a central location to get tested, and test negative; I would be told to go home and practice social distancing.

              After that first test, I’d need to go back 14 days later for another test. Wash, rinse repeat.

              If I had no symptoms, and the test was positive, I’d be told to go home and practice social distancing.

              “Testing everyone” is great for the statisticians, epidemiologist and historical context…But our “best weapon” is to stay home and practice social distancing.

              And if I did show symptoms..I’d need no test to know that I was sick. I’d visit my doctor and get tested to know “just how sick”. Is it the flu? Is it covid? Is it the ragweed?

              1. Considering that ragweed is a problem mainly in late summer/early fall and this time of year it hasn’t even emerged from dying back, it’s unlikely to be the problem. If you’re in Australia or Patagonia, though, it very well might be that.

                1. There exist other allergens. Ragweed was just a snarky toss out encapsulating all allergens.

                  Where I am, Oak, Bayberry, and grass are pollinating, making a couple of my family sound like hacking covid sufferers to the untrained ear.

              2. 50 to 70 percent of healthy people need to get the wuhan flu and take a few days off to slow it down while the “herd” gains immunity. The elderly and those with compromised immune systems need a solid self isolation strategy. Hospitals and Senior Communities need new contamination and treatment options.

              3. But isn’t it the reverse? Without testing, can we ever end it? Without much testing, and people showing symptoms being told not to seek a test (thanks governor), as soon as “shelter in place” ends, we’re right back at the start of an exponential curve. Vaccines and treatments are probably years away. Getting them deployed, more time. And how many due because routine tests for other diseases are shut down? Or cancer treatments delayed? Is it even efficient for everything to become emergency medicine again (by shutting down all health care that isn’t)? Isn’t that even more likely to overwhelm the system?

              4. That is also the recommendation of Dr. Falci. A far better source than the author of this article.

          2. DEdwards, in case you haven’t noticed, the general population is undergoing a mass panic over this. They’ve lost their minds. The best example of a previous mass hysteria was when they locked up all the Japanese Americans during WW II after Pearl Harbor. It all seems so rational and necessary when we’re “in the middle of it,” or — to quote little Bobby McNamara — in “the fog of war.”

            The proper response would have been to take care of the most vulnerable (the elderly) and keep the younger folks away from them as much as possible. Nothing more is called for.

        2. People have gotten significantly more cowardly in the past ten years.

          1. Stay calm and keep living

            1. Amen! leazurners1, I go outside for exercise and the people I see outside (walking, jogging, bicycling and skiing) are all having fun and not obsessing over this Coronavirus insanity.

        3. FATF Week in Paris had not triggered a major stock crash in 2009, and that outfit’s president wasn’t a Chinese bureaucrat. They did trigger a Flash Crash the following year when DEA confiscated bank accounts belonging to Colombian nationals. But “our” gubmint published a report explaining it away without mentioning asset forfeiture. The key to successfully picking pockets is misdirection.

        4. The American left just nominated a feeble old man who might already have Alzheimer’s Syndrome and probably won’t make it through even one term in office.

          They’re not complete idiots, they know they needed a desperate Hail Mary play to get Trump out of office. Well, this is it: we’re seeing it. Never underestimate just how unscrupulous, power-hungry, and evil these bastards really are.

        5. The political establishment didn’t expect Obama to do anything about the swine flu. Meanwhile they want to set the expectation that Trump has the power to cure the flu and if anyone dies it’s his fault, all while working to undermine his efforts.

          The 2009 swine flu, per Wikipedia:
          In late April, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared its first ever “public health emergency of international concern,” or PHEIC, and in June, the WHO and the U.S. CDC stopped counting cases and declared the outbreak a pandemic. Obama declared a national emergency on Oct. 24. That’s very late compared to what Trump did. Meanwhile, Democrats criticized him for stopping flights from China, as being racist, and China didn’t like it either. Democrats are on China’s side here, after paying off the Bidens for their support.

          1. HEY, GOMER!

            COVID-19 DEATH RATE WORSE THAN SWINE FLU

            “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time.”

            ELIGIBLE, because none are immune, unlike seasonal flu

            Last week, Trump said this at a news conference in the Oval Office: “If you go back and look at the swine flu and what happened with the swine flu, you’ll see how many people died and how actually nothing was done for such a long period of time, as people were dying all over the place.

            Dying BECAUSE nothing was done! And this 25 times worse (keep reading)

            Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.

            … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.

            At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

            But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

            The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

            COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

            The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

            12,000 x 25 = 300,000

            **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune. “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time

            ****”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

            Trump shot himself in the ass AGAIN, by comparing with swine flu.For the thinking impaired, see the source for simple graphs comparing COVID-19 with swine flu.

            Does ANYONE believe he cited Wikipedia?

        6. Please refer to how contagious this is versus the flu, go look at new york city and come back and try to convince me with your bullshit. You catch this thing if someone even looks your way. I personally don’t think it’s as deadly as they say, maybe 3 or 4 times what flu is. We are handling the wrong way as well. We need quarantine the people at risk and let everyone else catch it. the government are being idiots over this. They’d rather destroy lives and increase suicides rather than quarantine memaw and pepaw.

      2. Do you use a paypal account, because you can make an additional 300 week after week to your income only working on the internet 4 hours a day. go here…. Read More

    2. They are ***ALL*** coronavirus carriers, because their physicians, for fear of the virus, all would do phone and email (socially distant) consultations only! Meanwhile, even though they (patients) WERE able to obtain “lung flutes” with which to expel excess mucus, all of which (mucus) was heavily virus-laden, via “lung flute” prescriptions duly issued by their socially distant physicians… Said socially distant physicians were NOT able to physically demonstrate to their patients, the precise, HIGHLY technically detailed medical skills needed to proficiently blow upon a cheap plastic flute! For want of this detailed medical knowledge, the kingdom was lost!

      DO NOT BLOW ON CHEAP PLASTIC FLUTES W/O INTENSE PERSONAL SUPERVISION BY LICENSED PHYSICIANS!!!

      To find precise details on what NOT to do, to avoid the flute police, please see http://www.churchofsqrls.com/DONT_DO_THIS/ … This has been a pubic service, courtesy of the Church of SQRLS!

      1. Dude, you need a new shtick.

    3. Such a silly article! How long would it take to test 320 million people? By the time we tested the last 10 million the middle 10 million would have infected the first 10 million! So would you re-test them all again? Weekly? Monthly?
      Everyone JUST STAY INSIDE!

      1. That isn’t really a real option. Productive economic activity is necessary. It’s quite possible to modify social behavior to make it pretty unlikely to catch this. People are probably wise to avoid crowds, but most people can go to work if they are healthy without it being a big risk to anyone. Just wash your hands and don’t touch people if you don’t have to.
        And if you allow tests to be quickly and widely distributed, you can test 300 million people. If you manufacture 300 million tests that take 15 minutes, it would take 15 minutes (not really, obviously, you have to distribute them, but maybe a week or so). Testing 50 million would probably be enough to get more of a handle on the situation.

        1. “Productive economic activity is necessary.”

          And one must be healthy, and preferably alive to provide a productive economy.

          A one or two month pause button in a life of 40 years is hardly noticeable 10 years from now.

          If you want to test to get folks back to work, sure. Just make sure it’s 100% compliant and there can be no false negatives. And be prepared to re-test at least every 14 days; again being 100% compliant and no false negatives.

          1. A one or two month pause button in a life of 40 years is hardly noticeable 10 years from now.

            Every single civilization on this planet exists within a webwork of supply and production chains.

            If even one breaks it has repercussions across the entirety.

            If it is not fixed, and fixed quickly, other links start to break.

            The more links break, the worse it gets.

            There are dozens of broken links right now–and governments are working to break more.

            We are not far from power failures.

            Because those essential workers all rely on businesses that governments have declared inessential. Because they can’t see the use for them.

            This is why command economies always fail.

            We need to stop this.

            Now.

          2. There is no pause button for life or civilization. That’s ridiculous.

      2. A negative test would be valid for less than a month. How will several tests a year for 300 million people be financed?

        1. considering these tests are retailing for under $5 a pop before mass production and economics kick in…. we can expect them to get below $1 very soon, given the government stays out of production, and people will happily take one daily if need be, say they work with high risk patients or a facility/hospital. Open your mind, think outside the box. It could be required to even visit a retirement facility to clear one of these before you drive through the gates. The possibilities on how to continue safely and economically are endless in a free market. This company just got approval to sell in the US 4 days ago, it has already sold over a million in other countries prior, it has been producing for well over a month now and it is a true shame we had to wait this long, there are over 80 companies still waiting for approval:
          https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

          1. Right, but that’s still a lot of money on a stupid waste.

            1. Definitely worse to spend $5 each on 300 million people than to spend $1,000 each on 300 million people.

              1. Who said worse? But yes, it’s worse than 0, that’s for sure.

            2. Wouldn’t you spend $50 to know who in your family has the bug?

              1. What difference, at this point, does it make?

          2. I don’t see any need to force testing on anyone. Make it easy and cheap and people will seek it out. Not everyone, but plenty for a good sample.

      3. People can’t just stay inside: they need to produce, distribute, and sell all the necessities including health care, food, electricity, water, gas, gasoline, auto repair, tractor repair, test kit production, etc.

        Testing everyone is what’s really needed. And Bailey might have given a shout out to Trump for his deregulation to get all this addressed (and let’s scrap those regulations for the future). Quick, 15 minute on site tests are exactly what’s needed, along with a huge ramping of test kit production. With enough test kits, we can isolate the infected to prevent further spreading, and clear those who’ve developed immunity.

        Sure Obama’s administration wouldn’t be able to do it, nor would it even try as evidenced by his 2009 very late response to the H1N1 swine flue that the WHO declared was a “public health emergency of international concern” in April, while Obama declared an emergency in October.

    4. “C”

      When still in doubt after considering every other answer always go with “C”. Trust me. I was a NMSF.

    5. Pretty sure testing during a pandemic does absolutely no good at all besides metrics.

      From a CBRNE perspective the test means nothing. You have to assume sickness; or don’t. But mass testing the non-six is a waste of resources and will only spread the illness.

      1. it ensures the draconian measures warrant the risk. Right now there are just draconian measures based on random thoughts and scary men telling scary stories with horribly flawed stats.

        1. Draconian measures, is digging mass graves.

          Staying at home streaming NETFLIX..not so bad.

          1. Tell that to the restaurant and bar employees who won’t be able to pay their rent because they can’t go to work because you’re terrified of a flu that’s killed 11,000 out of 7 billion humans. And also to their landlords who won’t be able to pay their mortgages because their renters aren’t paying. And the banks who will have to lay people off because they are taking losses foreclosing on properties.

            1. You want me to tell them that streaming NEXFLIX is preferable to digging mass graves?

              I would hope that they would prefer a bad movie.

              To be clear, I’m not suggesting that covid will result in mass graves. I’m suggesting that current measures aren’t all that “draconian”.

              Then again to many, saving away two months salary in an emergency fund and a few days of canned food in the pantry are draconian measures.

            2. Whoa… izzis 2008? Is George Waffen Bush shutting down the economy AGAIN? Are all flights grounded?

      2. Pretty sure testing during a pandemic does absolutely no good at all besides metrics.

        Seems to have done some good in South Korea.

    6. I’m laughing on this news headline. How you can test everybody when these virus spread across all the most populated nations like in India, China, US etc. My point of view, is the best weapon to fight with Corona is “Janta Curfew” which is recently implemented by India’s PM. Mr Modi. it means no people come out from Home for atleast 36 hours. So normal life of this virus on metal surface or any other surface without antibody is not greater than 12 Hours. So this India’s plan definitely works to fight with at-least 60% corona virus spread across.

    7. Italy is testing a lot more than most places, and it has the highest death rate. There are two reasons, one, they have a higher percentage of people over 65; around 23%. Second, the young and old mix more in Italy, so the young are infecting the old. So testiing everyone is not the answer. Most practical approach is to isolate those over 65, and let everyone else go about their business.

      1. ANOTHER one who says younger people have a GOD-GIVEN RIGHT to keep infecting ,.. and killing more people.

        Do they not know what “communicable” means?
        Are they too ignorant to know that people with mild symptoms are just as dangerous as severe ones?

        Amd, why are we on the same growth curve as Italy, 10 days behind them?, They had 793 deaths yesterday, from 1/5 our population. If we stay on their curve, we’ll have 4,000 deaths in one day, by month-end.

        Umm, the same curve means deaths accelerating at the same pace … with a less elderly population. We must have more goobers, ya think?

  2. >>It’s time for a widespread rollout

    good luck finding me.

    1. I much prefer Widespread Panic!

        1. Yes, if only.

      1. Testing everyone is widespread panic. How many times do we test them?

        1. “Big problems call for big government solutions” – NeoReason

          1. Who said government has to do the testing?

            I think there would be a great demand for it if it were available and affordable.

            1. That guy can barely slay a straw man.

              1. Oh fuck off. “Why won’t the government dooo something” was the implication, and you both know it.

            2. “Who said government has to do the testing?”

              Who else has the power to enforce it?

              Your gotchas suck.

              1. Why would you need to enforce it?

                Blue bracelet? You’re cleared to interact with that person.

              2. Wouldn’t you spend $50 to know whether your family had the bug?

              3. Oh, fuck off. My point is that if a test were readily available and cheap people would seek it out. No one has to enforce it. I’m not assuming that literally everyone can or should be tested, or that anyone should be forced.

        2. I don’t know. I think broad testing would help quell the panic we are already in. Widespread panic is where we are already. More testing would dampen the wild speculation about how bad it is and make selective isolation a pretty effective way to keep things in check.

          And if the government were to do the testing, I think I’d rather have them doing that than imprisoning everyone and building giant money fires.

          1. exactly, if we suddenly found out 30% of the population already had it, clearly the panic is unwarranted and people can get back to work and protect the truly vulnerable.

            I am terrified people in these comments are saying essentially “whatever you do, don’t you dare try to get more accurate estimates on true mortality and morbidity rates, lets keep hiding under the kitchen table until they say we are safe and can come out”

            1. Fuck off slaver.

              1. Fuck off anti-science ignoramus.

                1. I love how the crystal-wearing, chakra-manipulating party of anti-vaxxers and anti-GMO nuts, calls everyone else “anti-science”.

            2. If the mortality rate was 1.4% vs 1.6%…what would you do differently?

              1. Except it’s more likely to be 0.5% or lower, population wide, and significantly lower for younger healthy people… that suggests rather different responses based on age and health.

                Best estimates for 20-40 year olds based on the data right now is ~0.2% fatality of *cases that get diagnosed*, which likely means somewhere between 0.1% and 0.02% *or lower* true fatality rate. And that isn’t even accounting for health. That does look a lot like the flu. For those people, not really an emergency that requires skipping work and interrupting your life.

                Meanwhile, seniors probably want to self-isolate and social distance.

                1. Not just seniors, which somehow gets lost in the discussion.

                  We have millions of ‘young’ people 18-59 who are at risk. Anyone who takes immuno-suppressive medication is at risk. This is not a small cohort. We are talking about millions of young people here, and they are not seniors.

                  For a short time, we must all self-isolate and physically separate until we get a handle (and better data) on Wuhan virus transmissability and mortality. If America spends one month in lockdown, and we save lives in doing so, what is this to the life of our Republic? Merely a blip in time.

                  Once we have really good data (certainly by April 1 – not April Fool’s!), we can make data driven decisions.

                  1. You go ahead and, self-isolate. Seems like you were that way before this shit happened. Going to cry over the millions dying of the plain old normal flu?

                    1. Tempe, you don’t know me, and I don’t know you. Be safe, be healthy…and buzz off.

                2. OK then, for the sake of testing everyone and getting “more accurate estimates”

                  If the mortality rate was 0.6 vs 0.5, what would you differently?

                  1. If the mortality rate was 0.6 vs 0.5, what would you differently?

                    Answer: It depends. Do 30% of afflicted need hospitalization, mangle the healthcare system, and then go on to survive? Then the answer is nothing (meaning I would do what exactly what I advocate now; be solitary for a time).

          2. I don’t think that testing ever broad is the answer. In the first place, I don’t think they’d go for it.

    2. Then you probably aren’t much of a risk. Plenty of the population already socially distances pretty well.

      1. Duvall County, FL (Jacksonville) closed their beaches from here out.
        I live 20 miles north. Our beaches have been packed the last 2 weekends. Its supposed to hit 90 degrees here tomorrow. I expect the beaches will be packed again.
        Signs up saying “observe social distancing – 6 feet apart – no groups over 10”
        Lol, we’ll see how that goes. Beaches will probably get shut down statewide in the next week or two.

        Side note: the “social distancing” and “no groups larger than 10” instructions are an odd combination.
        If people are all 6 feet apart, what does it matter if there’s more than 10 of them? And with members all 6′ away from each other, is it even a group…

        1. The longer the lockdown lasts the less compliance.

  3. More so than being a weapon against coronavirus itself, I believe testing will be a weapon against coronavirus PANIC. Because a) people who are currently terrified wusses can find out if they already had it and didn’t even know, thus can be like “screw you bastards and your quarantine, I’m invincible” and b) once we have numbers on who really has it and doesn’t in the general population, that all-important denominator in the fatality equation can better reflect reality and we don’t have to have such skewed fatality/hospitalization rates floating around scaring everyone.

    1. YES!! And not only the denominator in the fatality equation, but even the denominator in the symptomatic equation.

      There are always, ALWAYS, ALWAYS viral pneumonia cases about, but DO WE LIVE LIKE HERMITS THEREFORE?!!

      1. SQRLSY, you make it really obvious when you are agreeing with yourself.

        We can sense your fear Hihn.

    2. Exactly. Without really knowing how many people HAVE the thing, any projections are completely worthless. But guaranteed politicians will claim they saved millions of people, many of whom will die of the regular flu next year without the press saying a word.

    3. You could catch it on your way home from being tested. People are just going to have to accept that this will need to run through the population.

      1. Again, unfortunately it’s not about what is logical in terms of how the disease progresses. It’s about getting people to calm the fuck down. Plus, antibody testing tells you how many people have some degree of immunity. Really, we should be rooting for lots of positive tests for current or prior infection.

        1. Yeah, my guess is that with broad antibody testing, we will find that a lot of people have it or have had it and it’s not that bad for the great majority of them. I would hope that would help to calm people down. Most of the economic damage is self inflicted. Restaurants and hospitality was probably bound to suffer, but there is no reason other industries can’t keep going like normal with a few extra precautions.

        2. “Again, unfortunately it’s not about what is logical”

          Then fuck off slaver.

      2. But it still makes a difference if most or many people who test positive take measures to avoid transmitting it.

        Still, I think you are mostly right. It will have to run its course. Hopefully we can keep a lot of the more vulnerable people from getting it, but lots of people will get it and (I speculate) most will not suffer from severe illness.
        Another thing I don’t hear people talking about much is the fact that viruses evolve pretty rapidly. A strain that causes relatively minor illness in most people is a lot more likely to spread than one that causes more severe illness. So it seems to me it should also get less dangerous over time, particularly if people with bad cases are effectively isolated.

        1. “ But it still makes a difference if most or many people who test positive take measures to avoid transmitting it.”

          And it makes just about the same difference if most or many people take measures to avoid contracting it.

          1. But fewer people need to self isolate in the first case, and government enforced isolation is unnecessary. Isn’t that what we want?

    4. Yes. I would hope that broad testing would show that for most people it’s not such a dangerous thing. I think that’s likely.
      And if it doesn’t show that, at least we have some real numbers to go on. As far as I can tell, the numbers available now are pretty useless in determining how serious it really is. But it seems extremely likely that the death rate for known cases can only drop as more people are tested.

    5. Exactly….the biggest threat is the panic.

  4. They do environmental testing for polio in sewage to find out if it exists in a location. They should find a way to do it for Coronavirus.

    1. it’s in the San Pellegrino!

  5. The market reaction to all this is a function of the uncertainty of when new cases will peak and start receding, but I’m not sure testing people who don’t have symptoms is the answer to that question.

    As I’ve said elsewhere so many times, people need to come to terms with the fact that we aren’t trying to stop the spread anymore–just trying to slow it down. Testing people who are asymptomatic might even be counterproductive.

    People with symptoms are getting tested, and hopefully they’re getting whatever treatments are available. It’s not like people with symptoms aren’t aware there is a virus for which they should be tested if they have symptoms.

    If anyone with symptoms isn’t getting tested, it’s because they don’t want to be tested, and those who are positive but asymptomatic aren’t really the problem–if we’re looking to get numbers on how widely spread it is rather than trying to stop the spread.

    For those of you who are trying to keep track of how widely this is spread, the latest numbers from the CDC can be found here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?

    They’re showing 15,219 confirmed cases in the U.S., right now, which is rather extraordinary because as of Tuesday morning, there were merely 4,200 or so. In order to stop the spread of the disease at this point, they’d need to isolate every one of those 15.219 people as well as everyone they’ve come into contact in the five days before they developed symptoms.

    There is no stopping the virus. We can slow the spread through social distancing but at some point, the destruction to our economy, people’s employment, and their standard of living will become more important to them than fear of a virus that may eventually reach most of us anyway.

    Some of the measures being implemented now are worse than the security theater of the TSA being implemented after 9./11, and I hope more Americans realize this sooner rather than later. The governments of California and New York, in particular, seem to have lost their minds.

    1. I don’t think it would be counterproductive, especially if we are testing for those positive for antibodies, indicating that they may have already had the disease. It would significantly reduce the CFR if it’s true that there are so many mild cases, and could give a better picture about how far the disease is from topping out.

      1. The only information that will lead to an understanding that the spread of the disease has peaked is a decrease in the number of new cases.

        Flooding the zone with fuzzy information about asymptomatic cases won’t make that happen sooner. It will make it take longer to see a peak.

        1. At this point I don’t really care what the disease does. All I want is to get some information so people can respond as is warranted, which is certainly way less crazy than we are now. And again, if you do antibody testing and you get a bunch of people that find out they have them, all of a sudden quarantines and shutdowns become unsustainable. And that’s really my number one concern- anything that helps bring to light how ridiculous this whole thing has been so those responsible can be properly chastened.

          1. The shutdowns, etc. aren’t justifiable now. Why do we need more data to make it unjustifiable?

            I see these as facts:

            1) The virus is out of control.

            We can slow the rate of infection so we aren’t all playing musical chairs with the last available ventilators, but assuming that you’re getting infected sooner or later is a reasonable assumption.

            2) There will be a recession.

            When Obama raised taxes and regulation (via ObamaCare), making it harder to justify hiring people in the aftermath of a recession, I thought that was the dumbest thing I’d seen a grown man in a position of authority do.

            Never did I think that a Governor of California could be so stupid that he would make it against the law to open for business or go to work ahead of an impending recession.

            Conclusion: I don’t see how additional testing will change either of these facts. When the virus gets under control, that means the number of cases will stop increasing and start decreasing. We already have access to that information–as well as the other pertinent facts.

            1. In principle, I agree with you. I myself would be perfectly fine with the data we have already, or less. I really have zero worry about the virus itself on a personal or societal level. And yes, the measures taken are absolutely unjustified with the data we have both because thisisunlikely to be as severe as predicted and because no matter what, we can’t do anything about it. But the idiots running the world, and a lot of those who elect them, are too stupid to understand this. They want to feel like they know what will happen and that they are in control. Test data might give us a shot at showing them.

            2. Maybe this virus is not as novel as they think. Maybe it already has run thru the population, maybe a long time ago, and nobody noticed.

            3. Wouldn’t you spend $50 to know whether your family had the bug?

            4. The shutdowns, etc. aren’t justifiable now. Why do we need more data to make it unjustifiable?

              Ken, you are speaking out of complete ignorance (you state there is uncertainty and a lack of data and you’re correct) and it will endanger lives. Please stop and think. Because your logic is pretty fucking faulty, Ken.

              In the US, we literally have millions of people 18-59 (our youth, remember?) who have medical conditions that require them to take immuno-suppressive medications. These millions of young people are at high risk. You seem to forget about this cohort. So do many others. You really need to keep this cohort in mind when solemnly intone shutdowns are not needed.

              By April 1, we should have significantly better data, and then we can make informed data driven decisions. The shutdowns we have in place until then are a reasonable response in the absence of that data. Particularly since there is no known efficacious treatment and no natural immunity to the Wuhan coronavirus.

              1. You’re saying that forcing businesses to shut down is justifiable because people with hyperactive autoimmune disorders are especially vulnerable–and that the results of testing people would make the government shutting businesses down ahead of a recession either justifiable or unjustifiable?

                Not only does that logic not compute, but people who are more likely to die from complications of this virus and their family members would be free to cloister themselves in their homes–even if other people were free to open their businesses and patronize those businesses.

                Again, my point is not that testing wouldn’t give useful information to some people for various reasons. One of my points is that testing won’t tell us anything about the question of whether it’s stupid to make it against the law to open for business ahead of an impending recession.

                1. No Ken, you gloss over the main point. You have made absolute pronouncements and you have no data to support them. You have made these pronouncements in self-professed ignorance. Stop making them. Please.

                  We will have data, very good data, in about 12 days (April 1); meaning millions of observations. As I said, The shutdowns we have in place until then are a reasonable response in the absence of that data. Particularly since there is no known efficacious treatment and no natural immunity to the Wuhan coronavirus.

                  I normally agree with your posts, because they are well-thought out. But not this time.

                  1. What data justifies the government forcing businesses to close?

                    What criteria are using to justify this?

              2. “In the US, we literally have millions of people 18-59 (our youth, remember?) who have medical conditions that require them to take immuno-suppressive medications. These millions of young people are at high risk. You seem to forget about this cohort. So do many others. You really need to keep this cohort in mind when solemnly intone shutdowns are not needed.”

                Are you implying that this vulnerable cohort of young people is *unaware* of their vulnerability? Seems unlikely if they are taking medications. Or are you implying that it’s everyone else’s responsibility to take precautions for those people?

                If I was in that cohort, I’d damn well already be taking the reasonable precautions in this situation that I’d be taking during any ordinary cold & flu season. And the easy 10% of those precautions (stay away from obviously sick people and wash my hands) is 90% of the benefit anyway. Is it preferable that I lose my job and possibly my home and my savings while watching the entire world economy go to shit to gain that additional 10% protection? Because being poor and homeless is not great for the immuno-compromised either.

                1. Are you implying that this vulnerable cohort of young people is *unaware* of their vulnerability? Answer: No

                  Is it preferable that I lose my job and possibly my home and my savings while watching the entire world economy go to shit to gain that additional 10% protection? Answer: No

                  This is as clear as I can make it: The shutdowns we have in place until then are a reasonable response in the absence of that data. Particularly since there is no known efficacious treatment and no natural immunity to the Wuhan coronavirus.

                  1. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

              3. Particularly since there is no known efficacious treatment and no natural immunity to the Wuhan coronavirus

                Just to correct you here. We absolutely do have natural immunity to Coronavirus, otherwise the death rate would be 100%

                1. Yeah, you’re right on ‘natural immunity’ virologist – the majority of people afflicted with the virus have immune systems that fight it off.

                  My point to Ken was that we have a very cohort, numbering in the millions of 18-59 that have compromised immune systems. By blithely stating we should take no action to stop the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus he places people at risk.

                  We have 10 days to go to April 1. In this time, the US will develop a raft of data that we can then use to make informed, data driven decisions.

    2. It’s not like people with symptoms aren’t aware there is a virus for which they should be tested if they have symptoms.

      If one is not feeling well, it would be extremely helpful to know if one is sick from the thing that is merely the same old-same old vs. kill you.

      Mass testing would help the economy because I’m sure there are some cities that are less hit than others. If, I dunno, some midwest midsize city had few enough cases that test/track/isolate is feasible, then they will be able to have both more economic activity as well as less anxiety.

      Besides the things we know (highly contagious, will be deadly even for young people without enough ICU capacity), the uncertainty is what makes this so bad, and testing brings (a certain level of) certainty.

      The sooner we know more, areas that can can get an all clear.

      1. The way cases are tracked now is all the information we need to gauge the spread, its peak, and when it starts receding.

        If anything, people (and politicians) need to take a closer look at the economic ramifications of their foolish policies. They seem to be acting as if the data coming from Wall Street were insignificant.

        What is it about the stock market and the yield curve that tells Gavin Newsom that opening for business or going to work should be against the law?

        Whatever extra background data we get, the new infection data coming from people with symptoms is all the data we need to know about how long this will last and how long business will be suspended.

        1. “The way cases are tracked now is all the information we need to gauge the spread, its peak, and when it starts receding.”

          That’s true but what we have now is, potentially, the social equivalent of an autoimmune disease. Without knowing how long it’s been here and an accurate estimate of mortality, society will continue to panic and potentially overreact to devastating effects.

          1. Again, that’s trying to fill an uncertainty hole with irrelevant data, and the thinking behind that is the same thinking that leads politicians like Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom to do the stupid things they’re doing.

            Because of the uncertainty, they’re trying to project an aura of confidence, decisiveness, and competence, but what they’re doing is stupid.

            The reason people are tolerating this stupidity is because, although they don’t believe in God anymore, they still can’t live with uncertainty, so they’d rather believe that Cuomo and Newsom have the god-like power to see things that aren’t in the data because they’re fundamentally uncertain.

            If we can get our fellow Americans to understand the truth–that no amount of extra data gathering by scientists or political geniuses can solve the fundamental problem of uncertainty, then maybe I can get them to understand that instead of praying to and having faith in politicians to make our choices for us–about whether and when to patronize a business or go back to work–maybe they’ll start to take it upon themselves to make their own choices for their own qualitative reasons.

            . . . and that last bit, that’s what libertarian capitalism is all about. Our politicians are just as uncertain about the future as you are, and you are uniquely qualified to make choices on your own behalf because you know your own qualitative preferences for safety and risk in the face of uncertainty better than any scientist or politician ever can. That is why you should be free to make these choices for yourself–rather than an emperor with no clothes like Cuomo and Newsom.

            P.S. No, we won’t find the emperors’ clothes with more testing and research.

            1. “Again, that’s trying to fill an uncertainty hole with irrelevant data”

              No, that’s trying to reduce the uncertainty (who’s had it, how deadly). Didn’t read the rest.

              1. When Ken gets fixated on an idea, there’s no diverting him from it

                1. To the point where he will lie and act like a cowardly censor, begging reason to rid him of his critics.

            2. Ken, Wouldn’t you spend $50 to know whether your family had the bug? The test costs $5 each.

              1. No I wouldn’t. I’d save my $50.
                You have a cough and a fever. The result is you stay at home. Rest and recover. Does it matter to me if it’s flu (Statistically most likely) or Coronavirus (statistically least likely) or one of the myriad other viruses that cause similar symptoms? Not really. If a family member became sick enough to require hospital treatment then at that point I’d like to know what it was, as that would direct which treatment option would be most successful.

                1. In the meantime your asymptomatic relative who has the bug gives it to all of your family. One of them visits grandma, gives it to her, and she dies an agonizing death.

                  Glad I’m not related to you.

      2. People have died from non sars coronavirus as well. People die get over it

        1. “People die get over it”

          Pro-Death, now, are we?!?!

          NOW we see the violence in the system!

          We all need to listen to the lyrics of the Motor City Madman (a CERTIFIED conservative, I might add).

          (Relevant summary out-take from below = …
          “Some people think they gonna die someday”)
          Then right after that, if you listen to the record played backwards, the secret message is, “BUT YOU DON’T REALLY HAVE TO GO”!!!

          https://www.google.com/search?q=Ted+nugent+lyrics%2C+%22I+got+news%22&oq=Ted+nugent+lyrics%2C+%22I+got+news%22&aqs=chrome..69i57.9183j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

          Stranglehold
          Ted Nugent
          Here I come again now baby
          Like a dog in heat
          Tell it’s me by the clamor now baby
          I like to tear up the street
          Now I been smokin’ for so long
          You know I’m here to stay
          Got you in a stranglehold baby
          You best get oughta the way
          The road I cruise is a bitch now baby
          But no you can’t turn me round
          And if a house gets in my way baby
          You know I’ll burn it down
          You ran the night that you left me
          You put me in my place
          Got you in a stranglehold baby
          You better trust your f-a-t-e…
          Yeah sometimes you wanna get higher
          And sometimes you gotta start low
          Some people think they gonna die someday
          I got news I’ve got to go
          Come on come on up
          Come on come on up
          Come on come on up
          Come on come on up
          Come on come on come on come on baby
          Come on come on…

          1. Yes, we get it. You’re pathetic ABC.

            1. At least I’m NOT pro-death!!!

              I’m with Ted Nugent! Those of us who believe like…
              “Some people think they gonna die someday”…
              THESE are the EVIL people!

              People like ME, who believe themselves to be immortal? WE are the GOOD folks!

              (Facts don’t matter, feelings do!!!)

              1. “At least I’m NOT pro-death!!!”

                You said you wanted to go back in time and murder me as a baby, you sad fucking liar.

                https://reason.com/2019/09/15/outgrowing-addiction/#comment-7931066

                “SQRLSY One
                September.15.2019 at 4:21 pm
                Right along with my urges to eat shit and then barf. Fortunately, I strangle these thoughts in their crib. Too bad that no one thought of doing that with Tulpa”

                I caught you lying cause you’re a liar uh uh uh

                1. “Too bad that no one thought of doing that with Tulpa… But that would be “pre-crime” punishment, which I generally do NOT subscribe to!”

                  Is the quote in more full context. Some of us (including me) do believe in capital punishment, for appropriate crimes (mass murder, genocide). YOU are a mass murderer of rational discourse! So, metaphorically at the very least, you deserve capital punishment, you mass murderer you! Call me pro-death, then, if you feel like it, you mass murderer of rational discourse! (Where-ever Tulpa goes, rational discourse dies! Tulpa is the Ebola of rational discourse!)

          2. Pro-Death, now, are we?!?!

            He routinely wishes death and violence on people who disagree with him or make fun of him, and then claims they’re the ones who are emotionally invested.

            1. You seem emotionally invested.

            2. Really? Find one time I wished death on someone dumbfuck.

              1. Earlier today when you said to SPB you wanted him to get killed. I’m on the phone so it’s too inconvenient to look up, but you know exactly what I’m talking about. You’ve gotten all tuff gai on me before, but it was too far back to find.

                1. As far as the child porn accusations, I’d need a link to believe it. Guy’s been a joke and a douche for years, but child porn? That’s not the SPB I’ve been making fun of for years before you disgraced these comments. Maybe a sock setting him up, but no. I need proof.

                  1. Wiat, you’d need a link? To the child porn links?

                    That explains a lot…

                    1. You’re fucking sick.

                    2. Please stop talking to me. You’re a stalker. You’re a sicko.

                    3. Right but YOU just asked for links to child porn.

                      It’s RIGHT THERE.

                2. Where is the link you lying dumbfuck

            3. Sarcasmic is so fucking pathetic he now lies about people.

              1. I looked it up on my computer. It was NumbNutz.

                So I humbly apologize for the false accusation.

                You’re still a dick.

                1. And you’re a liar who got caught.

                2. You are a dick because you will never acknowledge my apology. Which makes one of us a man. And it isn’t you.

                  1. Right but you asked for links to child porn. It’s right there.

                  2. I’m a dick, but I’m not a dick who lies about other people like you do

                    And I’m only a dick to dumbfucks who double down on ignorant arguments and refuse to learn.

                3. So you admit you lie constantly because you’re ignorant.

    3. Testing asymptomatic people is more important than testing obviously sick people. Sick people are obviously sick – the only way to get a handle on how bad (or not) it actually is… is by figuring out how many people don’t have it and haven’t had it.

      If all of california was already infected (that is, failed to find someone who didn’t have it), and they only had their current cases, we could just eyeroll and get on with our lives. No need to slow the spread at all.

      The number one priority should be testing random samples of the population in each state/county to estimate current spread. That would give us a much better handle on risks, and thus make us much better able to weigh whatever benefit we get from shutting down the economy against the obvious harms that is causing.

    4. You could put 15,000 people in 2 las vegas hotels. Quarantining individuals is definitely not impossible.

      1. Yeah, and America is OVERFLOWING with 7,000+ capacity hotels.
        So … how early did you know you’re a Trump loyalist?

  6. Not everybody, that’d be a fuckin’ big waste, ust some good sized random samples. Wouldn’t it be embarrassing to find out SARS-associated coronavirus is endemic in most places?

    I was just looking at some statistics, and it occurred to me that this “pandemic” might not be more than a blip in the total incidence and mortality from pneumonias. We’re straining and twisting over a phenomenon that’s not news. The people who get seriously ill from this would probably have gotten some other pneumonia sooner or later if they didn’t get this one.

    2 years ago at this time I got bronchiolitis from parainfluenza B, a condition that usually affects babies. I nearly died, not from the infection, but from overly aggressive treatment of it. There’d always be a certain number of like instances resulting from this “pandemic”.

    1. ^this. The methodology of selecting an appropriate sample size to accurately measure a population of a given size has been known for many, many year. No need to test everyone. There are fundamental questions about this virus and it’s spread that can be answered easily and quickly. It should be a priority….I’m almost out of toilet paper.

    2. Yes, this is remarkably stupid even for a wannabe technocrat like Bailey. Every test has alpha and beta error. Unless the false positives are vanishingly small, all that testing everyone is going to do is generate even more stress as a significant fraction of those false positives demands care.

      At this point I’m starting to wonder if Reason was ever good on anything given just how wrong they’ve been on so many issues for years.

      1. Wouldn’t you spend $50 to know whether your family had the bug?

      2. The problem with Unreason writers is a failure to think, and logically reason; and this suffuses through their articles. Which is the height of irony considering the name of this organization. I like Bailey because he at least tries to discuss the scientific data. Yes, his bias comes through, and he is correctly called out for it. Bailey also has the virtue of actually engaging with Readership, and he gets big props from me for doing so.

      3. Well, if you do the PCR test, false positives are zero.

        False negatives are relatively rare, but early in the infection would be possible, as well as very late during recovery.

        Unfortunately, that’s a lot more expensive and time consuming than the antibody tests.

    3. “The people who get seriously ill from this would probably have gotten some other pneumonia sooner or later if they didn’t get this one.”

      And when people die from illness, there’s more often than not a judgment call from the doctor on attribution. If a patient dies with an auto-immune disease, flu viruses, a “mild” corona virus, *AND* COVID-19, which one gets marked down as the cause of death?

      1. In Italy, everyone who tests positive for COVID-19 who subsequently dies is counted as a COVID-19 death, as far as I can tell. Even if they were, for example, hit by a truck.

  7. Because testing everyone in the United States is geographically exactly the same as testing everyone in South Korea. Or Italy. Or a host of countries that are smaller than your average state.

    By the time enough tests are available to test everyone in the United States, no one’s going to be super interested in taking one I’d bet.

    1. The tests also require other of chemicals that are not readily available to make the tests required to do this.

        1. To do the currently validated form of testing – RT-PCR – he is correct, the reagents are in limited supply

          1. Care to back up your claim with a link?

            1. Immunoassays can be conducted in many different ways. Here’s a list of what’s in the pipeline for Covid 19. https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

            2. So you feel stupid yet?

              https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-covid-19-response-hurt-by-shortage-testing-components/5013586002/

              You and sarcasmic probably have some deep conversations based around subjects you know nothing about.

              1. That’s for testing patients that are currently infected to determine if whats causing the disease is covid19 you fucking retarded waste of skin. In people that have already had, it is a much easier serological test to look for antibodies to determine who’s already been affected. That was the point of the article that you didn’t read. People that are infected may not yet have developed antibodies to test and require genetic verification. Obviously the subject is too complex for you to grasp.

                1. We Rent looking for antibodies. We are looking for infected. Dont be a Jeff and change the argument when proven wrong.

                  1. “it is a much easier serological test to look for antibodies to determine who’s already been affected”

                    Which would be fucking dandy IF we had one that was validated.

                    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html

                    Everything is changing fast right now but, AFAIK we don’t have a serological tes that can distinguish immune response to different strains of the Corona virus.

                    1. They are in the works, but that seems to be where we are at right now.

                      https://globalbiodefense.com/headlines/singapore-first-to-test-out-covid-19-serological-assay-in-outbreak-contact-tracing/

                      And yes, testing with an unvalidated methodology is a recipe for disaster.

                    2. So now it’s not a lack of chemicals, it’s a lack of data? You watch how fast these tests get validated. You can be sure validation efforts have been underway globally for a while now. The potential market is way too large and with the FDA allowing individual states to determine which diagnostic testing to allow and without an EUA, it will happen rapidly.

          2. No, there’s a $5 test.
            https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

            Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family?

  8. “Seventy-seven percent of people infected with SARS there contracted it in the hospital. They were patients, visitors and health-care workers. Another 17% got it at home, often from a health-care worker who lived with them.”

    —-Wall Street Journal, “U.S. Hospitals Aren’t Ready for the Coronavirus”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-hospitals-arent-ready-for-the-coronavirus-11579975968

    Look at that statistic!

    94% (77+17) of the people who came down with SARS in that were either infected in the hospital or by healthcare workers.

    . . . and you want to send all of America to the same healthcare centers in the hope of avoiding the spread of the virus?!

    People who are asymptomatic would be well-advised to stay away from healthcare centers at this point–unless, of course, they have a medical issue of some kind. If we all went to health care centers to have ourselves tested, it would almost certainly increase the rate of infection.

    There is something about the scientific mind that craves more data as a solution to the problem of uncertainty, which is why it’s so important for those of us who are not scientists to keep in mind that the problem of uncertainty never goes away. In fact, permanent uncertainty is fundamental to science itself–because scientists never know what new data will become available tomorrow–and everything we say we “know” today must be overturned tomorrow if data comes in tomorrow that contradicts what we think we “know” today.

    The important statistic is the rate of new infections, and that statistic is already being well attested to by people showing up with symptoms. If we tested all of America, not only would it not tell us about those who were infected after the test, it would almost certainly lead to an increase in the rate of infections, which wouldn’t have happened when it did if we hadn’t tested asymptomatic Americans everywhere.

    1. That’s why we could use some random samples in each community.

      1. Why do we need that?

        Again, that seems like people trying to fill the uncertainty hole with irrelevant data.

        Two points:

        1) The rate of new infections is the only statistic that really matters to the markets.

        When it starts declining, we can start gauging how soon businesses may have to go without customers and how long lenders have to go without borrowers making payments.

        2) We cannot know when the peak of new infections comes until they start receding.

        There can be nothing in the data that tells us when the peak will come and when we’ve passed it until after the number of new infections start receding.

        It doesn’t matter how smart the scientists are collecting the data, and it doesn’t matter how many scientists are collecting the data–there is no data that can confirm a peak until after the rate of infections starts receding.

        1. “2) We cannot know when the peak of new infections comes until they start receding.”

          I think this is not correct. Just because we reach a peak does not mean we have reached the final peak.

          This shelter in place nonsense is likely to result in multiple peaks. Gov Newsom is going to eventually relent and let people out, and then you will see another flare up.

          My favorite site right now is worldometers-dot-info. (For some reason posting their links gets blocked by the spam filters.) They are graphing the historical case loads, deaths, recovery rates, etc by country. I observe a couple things:

          1) Other than China and South Korea, pretty much every other country is in a Hockey Stick situation- the number of new cases is accelerating. Many countries are testing like crazy- Italy, US, South Korea, Russia- accelerating their testing and getting into the 100’s of thousands.

          2) Korea is still getting ~100 new cases a day, and I read yesterday that they are transitioning from back-traced cases (where they were following leads to the infected based on known contact) to now get their positive tests from the general public. I hope I’m wrong, but I really think we are going to see them hockey stick again, which will tell us that the markets aren’t going to get a clear sign like you think.

          3) China is full of shit. There is no way they have zero new cases.

          1. “I think this is not correct. Just because we reach a peak does not mean we have reached the final peak.”

            Let’s not miss the forest for the trees.

            The point was that you can’t confirm the peak until after it’s happened, and if you’re saying that there may be false peaks, that only reinforces the point that testing won’t tell us where the peak comes in the future. When the peak comes, that’s something we’ll only know in retrospect.

            Incidentally, that works the same way with stocks. The reason Wall Street firms stopped looking for vision geniuses who can see the future and started focusing on things like program trading is because knowing where you are in the cycle of any stock or market or economy is only clear in retrospect–no matter how smart, visionary, or lucky they’ve been in the past–and you can’t trade in the past. Program trading, on the other hand, is about executing in vast quantities and with greater frequency than silly people trying to make predictions about the future.

            There is no amount of data that can show us when the peak will come before it comes. We might look at how things progressed in other countries, but we may do better or worse than other countries for various reasons. We won’t know what we need to know until it becomes known, and even if there are false peaks, we won’t know the real one has come until after it’s arrived.

            1. That’s not why we should test. We should test subjects randomly (only volunteers, though) just to see how justified people’s fear of the associated illness is. If we find a lot of seropositives out there, it tells people the virus is already widespread, that staying away from other people at random won’t help them much at this point, and more importantly, that there are a lot of people with immunity, and who got their immunity by becoming colonized without becoming infected (i.e. symptomatic: sick). If we don’t find a lot of seropositives, that tells us the virus really is a new thing.

              1. “That’s not why we should test. We should test subjects randomly (only volunteers, though) just to see how justified people’s fear of the associated illness is.”

                Trying to dismiss people’s qualitative preferences with data or science is an undisguised appeal to authority.

                I prefer to ride my motorcycle to work through the freeways of southern California because it’s fun. What data, scientist, or politician can argue with my personal qualitative preference for motorcycling–even though it’s weighing against a universal value like safety? Because other people share or don’t share your qualitative preferences doesn’t make them rational or irrational–although the best term for people who value safety above all else may be paranoid agoraphobics. If the governors of California and New York value safety more than the rest of us, maybe they should be sent to see a psychiatrist. Certainly, the last thing I need is data to confirm that neither one of them should have the authority to overrule my choices–if I want to open my business or patronize someone else’s. The validity of people’s fears don’t require scientific justification and neither does their lack of fear. Their desires and freedom to make choices for themselves should be honored regardless.

                1. Did it occur to you in this case that authorities are good for being authoritative? That some people make up their minds on what to do based on scientific findings? It’s not all about ordering people around. I’d like to know these data, and I’m sure a lot of other people would too.

                  1. Science has no authority when it comes to qualitative preferences. They can inform our qualitative preferences, but their judgments based on qualitative preferences have no authority. We are all PhDs in our own qualitative preferences. Scientists can tell us what will happen to the polar bears, but they can’t tell us whether we should care more about the polar bears than we do about our own standard of living. They can tell us that swerving through traffic on the freeways of southern California is more dangerous on a motorcycle than riding in an SUV, but they can’t tell me whether I prefer more fun to more safety. They can tell us that the rate of infection may slow with social distancing, but they can’t tell us whether a business owner or his employees prefer keeping their jobs despite the increased risk of being infected sooner*.

                    In short, scientists and politicians have no business making choices on our behalf when there are qualitative aspects to our choices, and there are qualitative aspects associated with practically every choice. This is why I prefer markets to government, scientists, and bureaucrats making our choices for us–because markets are individual people making choices and that means that, within markets, we can make qualitative choices for ourselves. This is why the government’s ability to make choices for us should be winnowed down to as small a circle as possible.

                    In other words, this a big part of what makes me a libertarian capitalist, and it doesn’t change in a crisis. In fact, when I see governors inflicting their own qualitative preferences on the rest of us and using a crisis to justify it, I find it disgusting, not reassuring.

                    Did it occur to you that rather than having your choices made for you by politicians like Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom you’d prefer to make choices for yourself before this virus? If so, why would that change now?

                    1. *At best, it remains unclear whether social distancing will impact the total number of infections or just the rate at which it spreads to the same number of people. However, the flatten the curve approach assumes that the same number of people are under each curve.

                    2. You seem to assume that the only use such knowledge would be put to would be to coerce people, and that knowledge of the odds of things has no bearing on individuals’ choices of actions. People respond to even very slight changes in reported conditions, as when they select routes based on traffic reports. Investors respond to financial data, so why wouldn’t people respond to health data?

                  2. I’d like to know these data, and I’m sure a lot of other people would too.

                    I am one of them. I’ve been itching to get my hands on a clean data set. The CDC stated they’d put one out there. We’re all waiting for it.

                2. Maybe by now you’re used to such phenomena as findings about smoke exposure leading to anti-smoking (mutating into anti-tobacco and anti-nicotine) edicts, and have forgotten that some people were actually persuaded to quit smoking based on learning that it really was dangerous.

                3. No, there’s a $5 test.
                  https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

                  Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family and contacts?

                  1. I believe I’ve said the following repeatedly, but here it goes again:

                    The reason the stock markets and the yield curve are behaving so badly is because they don’t know how long this pressure on the economy will last, and the only thing that will answer that question for them is when new infections peak and start decreasing. Because knowing whether your family members are infected may be useful for various reasons doesn’t mean it will answer the question of how long this epidemic will keep consumers away from businesses or how long borrowers will need to finance their loans under these circumstances and without any revenue. Relative to the question of how long the epidemic will last, whether your family members are infected is a red herring.

                    The justification for progressive governors to lock down their local economies and make it against the law to open your businesses or go to work is already complete bullshit. Shutting down businesses ahead of an impending recession is profoundly stupid regardless of whether your family members test positive or negative for the virus. It shouldn’t be against the law for people to cloister themselves in their homes if that’s what they want to do, and it shouldn’t be against the law for people who care more about making their house payment than they do about the risk of exposure to open their businesses or work as construction workers–if that’s what they want to do. In other words, the information you’re trying to collect is also a non-factor in that regard. It’s a red herring–relative to what I’m talking about anyway.

                    My point that nothing but a peak in new infections, which can only come after the fact, will tell the markets how long this will last and my point that government lock downs are unjustifiable regardless of whether your family members test positive, those points remain as they are regardless of whether there is a test for $5 or $50–because the results of those tests are completely irrelevant to the answers of the two questions I’m talking bout.

                    Testing Lake Michigan for mercury levels will also yield information that may be useful for some people. It will not tell us, however, how long the epidemic will keep consumers away or how long stressed lenders will need to suffer distressed borrowers. Your tests, likewise, will yield information that is useful to various people in various ways, but not in a way that answers these questions–the only questions from a public policy standpoint that really matter.

                    Claro?

          2. 3) China is full of shit. There is no way they have zero new cases.

            I don’t trust their overall numbers – but I’m now certain about their daily changes. They probably limited their exposure to 2%+ of the population – maybe 10% max in Wuhan. They acted before lowering the curve became only option – and very few countries would be able to get away with that. But it does work.

            Which means they are still vulnerable to importing infected people. I’m assuming that until an antibody test is developed, all travelers there will have to go into 14 day quarantine. After antibody test, those with positive antibodies and negative antigen will be able to avoid quarantine. And it will remain like that until real vaccine is ready in a couple years minimum.

        2. Normally I’m nodding when I read your stuff, but I disagree with you here. More data gives us an idea of how many people have already gotten this thing and gotten over it. If we’re tanking our economy because of something that’s ALREADY swept the country, then……..

          1. “More data gives us an idea of how many people have already gotten this thing and gotten over it.”

            My understanding is that the Spanish Flu infected 30% of the population. That may have been at a time when outhouses were still fairly common and sanitation wasn’t what it is now. Maybe we’ll do better this time. Maybe we’ll do worse.

            This could infect 10%, 30%, 50% or 80% of the population.

            If 10% of Americans have already been infected, what does that tell the other 90% about whether it’s safe to go outside?

            If 90% of us haven’t been infected, what does that tell us?

            Does it tell us that we’re safe?

            Does it tell us that the economy is less important than the risk of infection?

            Does it tell Wall Street anything it needs to know?

            Show me that the number of new infections has hit an inflection point, on the other hand, and there is reason to believe that we may start seeing the end of this thing–regardless of whatever percentage represents the top.

            1. That’s only true if we see 10% rates. If we see 30% or 50% or some other number that I don’t know exactly, it will tell people that they’ve ALREADY been exposed, over and over during the course of the last couple months. We’re trying to flatten the curve because we’re assuming that when everybody has been exposed it will overwhelm the system. But what if we determine that EVEN IF EVERYBODY got it, the system would be fine?

              Certainly you have to admit there’s a number that would prove this self-inflicted damage is far worse that what the virus is going to do, even if left unchecked.

              1. We seem to be going around in circles over a misunderstanding.

                The markets need to know how long this pandemic will last so it can gauge how long various customers will need to go without customers and how long lenders will need to carry borrowers or how many borrowers will default on their loans.

                There is no doubt that data can be used to answer various questions, but unless it answer that question, it doesn’t really matter. The number of people who show up to get tested because they’re suffering from symptoms is the only figure we really need.

                The chances of the 30%, 50%, or 80% of the country being infected and no one realizing it until now are pretty far out there anyway, but the bigger point is that it doesn’t really matter. If you think consumer behavior would be fundamentally different if a significant number of people thought they were already immune, I don’t. If 90%, 70%, or 50% of the American people haven’t been exposed, you’re still looking at a huge number of consumers hunkered down to whatever extent their fear of the virus overwhelms their other fears, and Wall Street and the yield curve would still be looking at the number of new cases to gauge whether the pandemic was tapering off anyway.

                Oh, and I don’t think you’re accounting for the possibility of reinfection, FWIW.

                “Among 62 soldiers severely infected during the first wave of the A/Asian/57 (H2N2) pandemic in 1957, 17 were asymptomatically reinfected with the same virus within six months. In the 1962 epidemic the rate increased to 41%. Among reinfected soldiers studied, 68% had an asymptomatic infection; only 10% were severely symptomatic, and they were found to be infected with a virus closely related to A/Asian/57. For H3N2 epidemics, the rate of reinfection was 17% among students studied in 1970 who were reinfected with a virus closely related to the prototype A/Hong Kong/68 (H3N2). Reinfection with an extremely drifted variant of H3N2 was found to be 32% and 69% in two groups of students studied in 1972. Reinfection with a related virus was 32% in another group studied in 1983. Among the students studied who were reinfected with H3N2 viruses, the rates of asymptomatic infection were similar to those of symptomatic infection. The reinfection rates with a virus related to A/USSR/77 (H1N1) were 9.3% and 20% in two groups studied in 1980.”

                https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3941288

                Even after you’ve done your testing and even IF IF IF the results only confirm the best possible outcome (that everyone is already infected), consumers will still need to make choices for themselves based on their qualitative preferences and in the face of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the human condition. It’s inescapable, and in this situation, that especially seems to be the case. The data you want to collect doesn’t answer the pertinent questions–not that people require a rational basis for their relative preference for safety anyway.

                1. “If you think consumer behavior would be fundamentally different if a significant number of people thought they were already immune, I don’t.”
                  ——-
                  That’s probably the difference. I think if people were exposed to the fact that this thing has already been circulating for months before we demanded everything come crashing down, they would demand that everything be restored to normal.

                  1. If more than a hundred million Americans (30%) were previously exposed to a virus and no one knew about it, that would probably be extraordinary. If a third of all Americans tested positive for the antibodies now, we’d know about that already, too, from all the people being tested. You’re not about to develop a test that is positive for this virus–but not other viruses–administer it to that many people, and only get 15,000+ positives if a hundred million Americans have already been exposed to the virus. Someone is going to notice that 30% of the people being tested are positive and question whether the test is bad.

                    1. If more than a hundred million Americans (30%) were previously exposed to a virus and no one knew about it, that would probably be extraordinary.
                      ———
                      Not if we were spending those months writing it off as the flu, or other things that kill old sick people. It’s not like this thing is super unique in the ways in which it kills you. Of course it’s likely too late (and we have too little tests) to go back and test samples of dead people, but if we were somehow able to determine this had already killed 500 people in the 2 months before the tests went online……….

                      It’s my understanding right now that we’re only testing to see if the virus is present currently, and not if it’s been there in the past as well. IF IF IF (I love that :D) we’re testing all these people with the “right” kinds of tests and not seeing people who are negative but had it in the past, then I concede it would be unlikely that we’d see that in the general population.

    2. The testing I am envisioning can happen at home, or anywhere else. Prick your finger and drop some blood.

      1. Exactly. Thats what a myriad of companies are currently developing now or have already commercialized. https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/

  9. We’ll know in a few days, but data thru March 11 seem to indicate we’ve hit peak onset already:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html#epi-curve

  10. Why don’t we proactively roll out the treatments that have already proven effective?? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/20/wuhan-coronavirus-therapies-scientific-background/

    1. Great link. Thanks!

    2. I hope you’re right, but I don’t think that chart has been updated or it’s showing something other than what I think.

      https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?

      There were 4,000+ cases on Tuesday and 15,000+ today.

      You don’t get from there to here over a few days without going to a higher rate of infection–and that graph doesn’t seem to be accounting for 15,000+ infections.

      1. I assume you’re looking at the graph showing the date of the onset of symptoms?

        You see where the graph says, “**Illnesses that began during this time may not yet be reported”–and it’s going back through the 13th?

        On Tuesday, the 17th, there were 4,000+ cases, and on Friday, the 20th, there are 15,000+, and they’re not showing a jump of 11,000 cases in that time period–so those cases haven’t been logged yet in terms of the date of onset.

        They’ve still confirmed that people are infected, they just aren’t updating the date of onset. Incidentally, you see at the top where they’re detailing:

        Travel-related: 337
        Close contact: 321
        Under investigation: 14,561
        Total cases: 15,219

        If you added up all the number in that graph, they might tally up to 337+321. I think they stopped worrying about how people became infected, whether travel related or close contact, back when they gave up on trying to stop the disease by isolating people and just started trying to slow the spread with social distancing.

        I suspect those 14,561 cases aren’t on that graph yet because they’re still “under investigation”, and I know that around 10,000 have been added to the tally of confirmed cases over the last three days.

        1. I think you replied to the wrong post, but if it’s the CDC link, that graph isn’t supposed to represent all cases. It’s some subset (I’m not sure how- must be a certain proportion per day), which you need to do to normalize for the increase in testing. Because yeah, the number of cases has skyrocketed in the past couple days, but not because that many people got infected- it’s because they’re finally processing tests of previously suspected cases! The tail of this graph will obviously fill out (per the caveat you mentioned), but some days that are out of that “cases may increase” range are starting to show a downward trend. It still can change, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

          1. Right. It’s most likely because we’re just now testing. Having the largest Chinese population outside of Asia by large margin (I believe) and being the largest trading partner with China by a large margin (I believe), Covid 19 has been here at least as long as Italy and europe…probably longer. It didn’t get here by boat after stopping in Europe. We just started testing later so there is the illusion that the number of cases are growing. A more interesting statistic to look at would be the increase in hospitalizations due to cold and flu.

            1. That info – hospitalizations due to ‘influenza-like-illness’ is on the CDC Weekly Influenza Report. It’s about halfway down that page – ILINet. The red line on the graph – that has now reversed direction from what is normal. Surveyed in outpatient settings.

              1. Ah, thanks for the link. That is good information.

              2. So the ILINet data is visitations not hospitalizations from flu. That is further down and still much lower than the 2017-18 flu season, but higher than many previous years. I’m wondering if the ILINet visitation data is due to people becoming hyper-sensitized. I guess we will see, but I think this information is more telling.

              3. The line re hospitalizations is cumulative data for the season. The visitations line is week-by-week-by-week. That week by week is far more important for tracking/projecting Covid19 since it started with a mere handful of cases midway thru flu season. Not with millions of cases of flu already around.

                More troubling is the data summary underneath that visitations graph.

                9 of 10 regions are reporting an increase in ILI visitations now. All 10 are now well above the ‘baseline’ (expected ‘normal’ for this week of flu season I’d guess). National average is 5.8% of visits now are ILI v baseline of 2.4%. Inaccurately, one might say that more than 50% of things that people might think are flu right now this week as a ‘new’ thing might actually be Covid19. And

                Among 40 states with high ILI visitation:
                26 increased week over week
                10 stable week to week
                4 declined week to week

                Among the 35 with high ILI visitation and test results for flu
                30 had declining flu positive results
                4 had stable flu positive
                1 had increasing flu

                So flu IS decreasing – fast – as normal. But people are going to doctor for ‘flu’ in increasing numbers – now in enough numbers to outweigh actual ‘flu’ – and very possibly not being tested for Covid19 depending on whether their state is doing anything.

                There may some hypochondriac stuff. But doctors know how to distinguish that from real symptoms and from what they report to CDC. I hope.

                1. “The line re hospitalizations is cumulative data for the season.”
                  Even so, I would still expect to see the slope of the line increase as time goes on instead of flatten. We’ll see.

                  “There may some hypochondriac stuff. But doctors know how to distinguish that from real symptoms and from what they report to CDC.”
                  I’m not sure that’s what that graph shows. Unless I missed it, it makes no claims about whether or not the visit was justified. The level of panic in this country is high enough and people really have no idea what this disease looks like so I am not going to dismiss it as easily. The picture will become more clear as time moves on, I suppose.

                  1. I would still expect to see the slope of the line increase as time goes on instead of flatten.

                    CDC says there were low tens of millions of visits to doctors for flu and high hundreds of thousands of hospitalization for that. We are only at tens of thousands of confirmed cases for Covid.

                    If the data is showing bad news on the weekly stuff for visitations (now that flu season is normally over), that is what is telling us what is ahead. I assume that somewhere there is hospitalization weekly data but using cumulative season is just waiting around to avoid seeing something.

                2. Another thought, I think it’s possible that the current spike in visitations could be people suffering from seasonal allergies worried they could be spreading covid19.

            2. That is correct. Doctor Brix made that point on Sunday, March 15th. She stated to expect a dramatic increase because high throughput processing would start coming online this week.

              A simple metric I would like to see the CDC publish is the total number of tests processed, and total positives for Wuhan virus. That would be a good start. We need to know incidence of Wuhan coronavirus among people who exhibit cold and flu symptoms.

  11. Because nothing could possibly make more sense than sending people who are not infected to a place where we KNOW infected people have been / are.
    It is like everything ever learned about disease has been overwritten by a burning desire to insert the state and federal governments into both of the remaining places they have not already gotten.

    1. The tests would not take place at a medical facility, for healthy people.

      1. How do you know if you are healthy or not if you are asymptomatic ?

  12. Our best weapon is to stop panicking and look at the damn numbers.

    1. hahaha. All I’ve been doing for weeks is showing numbers. All I’ve been accused of doing is panicking.

      What you really mean is show us numbers that are as comforting as a binky. you don’t need numbers. Just get a binky

  13. Bailey literally wrote an article a few days ago that we missed the boat on testing and that we can no longer control the spread of the virus, which was a complete reversal of his article a few days prior to that one in which he argued that testing is the best tool to stem the tide of the virus. Now he’s back to square one: more testing.

    How many different ways can you spell clueless hack?

    1. And yet, you clicked on both. Mission accomplished.

      1. We click for the comments

    2. hahahahaha! I was reading these comments looking for you. What a joke of a comment. You are anti-testing and it’s hilarious. You want numbers to mean nothing and uncertainty to reign supreme.

  14. What do the Diamond Princess stats tell us. What percent got infected with no social distancing in place? What percent of those infected required hospitalization? What percent of those hospitalized died? Do it by age group. Will two or three weeks of social distancing make any real difference or will we all be exposed in the long run?

    1. Pretty sure those stats tell us that there’s no reason to freak out, but that doesn’t stop people. Apparently we need a sample size of ‘everyone in existence’ even while we have a fairly good case study already.

      1. So much for rational “libertarians.”

    2. Since you asked…the data is on the CDC.gov website.

      I was much more interested in the ship where quarantine failed. Most cases on deck 4, most commonly infected crew type was beverage server, food service.

  15. How long do you think it would take to test over 330 million people? How long to produce all the tests? Doesn’t sound possible to me. Their just throwing every thing against the wall and hoping with out enough information.

    1. Hey, there are Libertarian candidates out there who think advocating the stopping of 61 million social security checks on April 1st is going to win converts to libertarianism.

  16. Our best weapon is a vaccine. The second is getting natural immunity. Otherwise you’re going to get it eventually. So destroying our economy to delay some deaths is insane. Go ahead and test everyone. It won’t matter.

  17. Widespread testing works assuming you make the right decisions based on the info the results gives you.

    And there’s a good example of how it can work from Italy – Vo’ in Veneto just east of Lombardy.

    They were one of the first places to record a case – and the first to record a fatality. They immediately locked down their town. Tested everyone and found 3% positive. Waited the two weeks and positives were down to 0.25%. At which point, those folks stayed in isolation and rest of town was opened back up. No cases in a couple of weeks while the rest of Italy is in meltdown. They are still 97% not exposed – but no longer internally at risk.

    That’s something only a small town could do. And even that requires very good public health and consent of the governed and the ability to act decisively at the local level. I don’t think any of that exists in the US with poor public health system, DeRptyDeRpty, and the still common notion that munis only exist at sufferance of the state.

    1. How did they keep everyone else out of their town, I might ask. Mandatory testing to come into the ‘city’? I’m assuming the rest of Italy continues to exist around them.

      Also I notice that according to their own stats, the disease probably isn’t deadly enough to justify such a lock down. *shrug*

      1. Lockdown means lockdown. I assume they set up roadblocks and only let in supply trucks they arranged for.

        1 out of 70 dead – while being treated? They obviously disagree and didn’t want to risk what is happening right now in Lombardy with 11% fatality run rate. A town of 3700 probably only has a clinic not a hospital.

        And presumably they don’t have people like you in their town who would make it impossible for them to do anything because you are utterly anti-scientific, incapable of learning, have your head up your ass, and believe in a hecklers veto.

  18. Well, what if people don’t want to be tested? This virus killed libertarianism…

    1. Realizing that libertarians share many of the technocratic impulses of progressives as reality and human nature came crashing in is what killed libertarianism.

  19. Does Bailey have an actual science degree?

    First the assumption that we can stop the virus is silly. Sans a vaccine (and there has never been one for this strain), its immunity after getting. Lock up the old/at risk in self quarantine. Anyone who has the flu stay home for a few days until you feel better. Anyone with serious symptoms and old/at risk isolate in modified warehouses for contaginous folks. And remember..the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one. We are creating a situation that govt will continue to destroy liberty if we continue down this path even when this is over.

    And last point…what the % of false negatives or positives of the test. If millions have this already the death rate is really really low.

    1. Yup. It’s even a saying: “we can put a man on the moon but we can’t cure the common cold”

  20. Yes, what you don’t know can hurt others. In Science on March 16th, US and China doctors estimated that prior to the restrictions on travel in China, undocumented COVID-19 infections in China caused 79% of documented COVID-19 infections.
    science .sciencemag .org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221
    youtube .com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s

    Not sure why Ronald Bailey finishes so weakly, concluding only that widespread testing would let survivors go to work. Under the 15 Days to Slow the Spread recommendations, most people could safely go to work now, would survive being infected, and would build herd immunity that reduces serious outbreak risk for everyone.
    whitehouse .gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf

    Government people’s actions outside the major hot zones aren’t medical solutions, they’re medical and economic problems.

  21. General testing for COVID-19 is as idiotic as general testing for HIV infection was; these tests are pretty accurate, but they still have a false positive and false negative rate of several percent. Serologic testing by itself also doesn’t tell you whether people are still shedding viruses or not.

    It’s also a pipe dream to think that people who feel fine will agree voluntarily to such a test, because there are mostly potential downsides to them (weeks of quarantine). On the other hand, people with respiratory illnesses ought to be isolated anyway and treated based on the severity of their symptoms, so the test is mostly useless for them as well.

    1. Consider a hypothetical (but possible case) where 50% of the people has had a mild version and were either untested or had it before testing was available. Testing their serum for antibodies is the only way to know. Now 50% of your population is able to go back to work before your entire country collapses.

      1. Like anyone around here cares about logical arguments anymore.

        1. Comes from reading the articles.

        2. Like anyone around here cares about logical arguments anymore.

          If you or OrangeManBad want to make a logical argument, at the very least you should bother to read what you’re responding to.

      2. Testing their serum for antibodies is the only way to know.

        Which part of “Serologic testing by itself also doesn’t tell you whether people are still shedding viruses or not.” did you have trouble with?

        The second problem with your idea is that the world doesn’t divide up like that. There is a large population of people who will never seroconvert on a test either and never get sick either. Are you going to keep them in isolation indefinitely?

        We know who can go back to work: otherwise healthy people under age 60. That’s because their risks from COVID are no greater than from a regular flu. Conveniently, that’s pretty much people of working age. And it requires no testing.

        1. Post-April 1, I suspect it will start to be that way = We know who can go back to work: otherwise healthy people under age 60.

        2. “We know who can go back to work: otherwise healthy people under age 60. That’s because their risks from COVID are no greater than from a regular flu. Conveniently, that’s pretty much people of working age. And it requires no testing.”

          Sure they can go back to work…….and likely spread disease again. You really don’t get how this works, do you.

          1. Sure they can go back to work…….and likely spread disease again.

            Correct. And that’s fine, because for the under-60 crowd, the virus is no worse than a seasonal flu, something we don’t shut down the entire economy for.

            You really don’t get how this works, do you.

            Apparently better than you.

  22. Damn, I’m disappointed with you people. Has it not yet occurred to any of you that testing is not our best weapon, that our best weapon is in fact surprise and fear? Our two best weapons are fear and surprise, but I’m not going to do the part about ruthless efficiency or an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope because that would just be silly.

    1. You are hereby charged that you did on diverse dates commit heresy against the Holy Church. ‘My old man said follow the–‘

    2. It did occur to me, as a matter of fact. I was just about to mention fanatical devotion to the pope.

  23. The number of reported cases of COVID-19 caused by the novel coronavirus has now risen globally to 272,000

    To put this in perspective …
    “The ‘Shoe” in Columbus typically holds >100,000 spectators on a Saturday. “The Big House” in Ann Arbor, I believe, is even larger. Add 10% for staff, teams, vendors, security, etc. Were not even close to the population of people watching Big10 Football on an average November Saturday. Not “nothing” to be sure, but no reason to panic.

    And bring back the PREVIEW button!!

    1. “And bring back the PREVIEW button!!”

      HEAR HEAR!!

      1. I would prefer an “ignore this user” button. It would almost make this place tolerable.

        1. There used to be a couple of things for that. Pretty sure they died with the end of Hit and Run, though.

    2. CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

      COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu and 10-20X more deadly. If we ignore it the death count could be more than a million. You ok with that?

      We should strongly encourage (not demand) social distancing, provide the $5 test as widely as possible for people to self test, and require anyone who enters a public building to get tested. Businesses could do this as well. People who test positive could isolate themselves. Wouldn’t you pay $50 to know if your family was infected?

      1. “COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu and 10-20X more deadly.”

        We don’t know with certainty if either of these assertions is really true, which is kind of the point of all the articles pushing for more widespread testing.

      2. COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu and 10-20X more deadly. If we ignore it the death count could be more than a million.

        That was the initial fear. It’s not born out by data.

        Even if it were true, the current policies are not intended to reduce the number of infections, merely to spread them out.

        You ok with that?

        You think like a socialist/fascist: “let’s trample on people’s freedoms to make our national statistics look good.”

        The average annual risk of death in the US is about 1%. Corona virus increases that slightly (even if you are infected, its mortality rate is substantially lower). Most people will make the rational choice that they don’t want to lose their jobs or their businesses over such a modest increase in risk. That’s the rational choice. You/the state has no right to override their choice because your preferences are different.

        1. PAY ATTENTION (LOL)

          Most people will make the rational choice that they don’t want to lose their jobs or their businesses over such a modest increase in risk. That’s the rational choice

          THEIR “CHOICE” WILL INFECT AND KILL OTHERS.

          You/the state has no right to override their choice because your preferences are different.

          Authoritarian right Gomers are a threat to human life and suffering.
          “Sanctity of Life” …. only for fetuses.

          1. Authoritarian right Gomers are a threat to human life and suffering. “Sanctity of Life” …. only for fetuses.

            You must confuse me with someone else. I have no problem with keeping abortion and assisted suicide legal.

  24. Bailey keeps prescribing government coercion as the solution to what he perceives as natural catastrophes which are beyond the capacity of free humans to survive.

    Keep your proposed coercion away from Americans, please, Ronald Bailey! We will figure this out quicker, saving more lives and our rights in the process, if government gets the hell out of the picture.
    We don’t need your stinkin’ authoritarian solutions.

    1. I didn’t see anything in the article suggesting coercion.

      1. Again, because you’re stupid, who else could enforce it and how would they do it without coercion.

        You didn’t see it great, but you’re an idiot who can’t understand what the actual discussion taking place is.

        1. I didn’t see anything about enforcement in the article.

          1. So it’s a volunteer test? You’re going with that instead of admitting I had a point?

            1. Yes. A volunteer test. Make it cheap. If people feel it to be that important then they will do it. If doctors feel it to be that important they will add it to bet usually battery. If insurance companies feel it to be that important they will pay for it.

              Things get done without coercion. Happens all the time.

              1. OK, so now that you’ve proven you’re an idiot, and want a volunteer test which won’t get anyone to take it, I think we are done.

              2. “Things get done without coercion”

                Things like invasive medical testing, that could lead to quarantine?

                Oh no, not that. You got caught being retarded again.

              3. Yes. A volunteer test.

                The last woman who tried to get tested anonymously was on national news and they had a manhunt out for her. Anybody who volunteers for that is a fool.

                1. No, there’s a $5 test.
                  https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

                  Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family and contacts? Do it yourself test.

                  1. The “at home” tests are new.

                    Should you take it? Why? How does it affect your behavior or treatment? Even assuming that the test were 100% accurate, what are the consequences? A negative test would tell you to shelter at home. A positive test could mean active disease or immunity, meaning you need to self-isolate, and we don’t know how long you are infectious after you turn positive.

                    So, what does self-testing actually accomplish?

          2. There is nothing about gulags in the Communist Manifesto either.

      2. I didn’t see anything in the article suggesting coercion.

        It follows logically from the fact that sensible individuals don’t want to be forced into government quarantine.

        1. How much of the population do you think is made up of what you would call “sensible individuals”? I see plenty of people out there who are willing to be forced into a lot by government.

          1. I see plenty of people out there who are willing to be forced into a lot by government.

            No, they don’t want to be forced into isolation, they just want the power of the state to force everybody else into isolation, and they want the resources of everybody else to pay for their isolation.

            That’s simply not going to work.

    2. He also gives kudos the the FDA for getting out of the way.

      Did you read anything beyond the headline?

      1. Does anyone here do that anymore?

        1. Who has time to read the shitty article when we have unreason defender comments from sarcasmic, bog nose, and leo to read?

          Its about web traffic not shitty articles from unreason.

          1. So you admit to being an ignorant piece of shit who is too much of a pussy to have direct conversations with people who actually read. It’s a start.

            1. right but you are a drunk and admitted loser that tried to ask me out and got turned down flat

              1. I was offering you the opportunity to meet the human beings who you are so into that you named yourself after our monikers like a stalker. You are seriously creepy.

                1. I wasn’t creepy when you wanted a date.

                  Those grapes are probably sour too.

      2. Do you do anything other than get turned down by me and cuck for Reason?

        1. Says they guy who is so obsessed that he named himself after me, and then pusses out when he has the opportunity to meet his crush. Don’t worry dude. The show is in Mass. That state is stupid about firearms so I wouldn’t be packing. Dunno about Sparky.

          1. Right, I wouldn’t go on a date with you, so you insult me.

            You’re that guy.

            1. You equate a dude’s night out with a date? Do you have any friends? (that was a rhetorical question because we all know the answer is negative)

              1. Listen, I said no, I won’t go out with you, compose yourself you drunk.

                1. Please leave me alone, stalker.

                  1. Weird how that request came right after I made you look foolish and turned you down for a date.

                    Sorry, but no means no guy. Stop trying already.

                    You can leave any time you like.

    3. It’s an idiotic proposal that would accomplish nothing.

  25. Trump AGAIN exposed as lying … about the FDA this time… by the FDA Commissioner! It never ends.

    FDA Head Dials Back Trump’s Timetable (short video)
    “FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn talks about the timelines for a pair of new treatments being considered to help combat the coronavirus pandemic. After Trump claimed the use of a drug to fight malaria — hydroxychloroquine — would be available “almost immediately” Hahn said a LARGE clinical trial was needed first,” with Trump at his shoulder!

    How many times have we seen Trump make a PHONY covid-19 claim … only to be immediately corrected, “to his face” (he’s at their shoulder)

    How many times have we seen the President make a PHONY COVID-19 claim … only to be immediately corrected, “to his face” (he’s at their shoulder) by experts?

    Cont’d

    1. Today’s COVID press conference, yet another disaster. Trump was attacking and insulting reporters, as he always does when he’s been caught in falsehoods … (most notably, his DISGUSTING lie that the Charlottesville rioting and mass assaults was launched by the “alt-LEFT charging and swinging clubs” – thus trying to absolve his neo-nazi and white nationalist supporters, later PROVEN the attackers.)
      Just hours ago, the whole thing exploded. It was NOT safe in China. China cut back their own clinical trial, almost immediately.
      Cont’d

      1. VIRUS DRUG TOUTED BY TRUMP, MUSK CAN KILL IN JUST TWO GRAMS
        (Bloomberg) — The drug touted by the U.S. President Donald Trump as a possible line of treatment against the coronavirus comes with severe warnings in China and can kill in dosages as little as two grams.

        China, where the deadly pathogen first emerged in December, recommended the decades-old malaria drug chloroquine to treat infected patients in guidelines issued in February after seeing encouraging results in clinical trials. But within days, it cautioned doctors and health officials about the drug’s lethal side effects and rolled back its usage.

        This came after local media reported that a Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram.

        1. Um, 2 grams is an enormous amount.

          1. Um, 2 grams is an enormous amount.

            Ummm, depends on the medication

            One more time

            daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram.

        2. The drug touted by the U.S. President Donald Trump as a possible line of treatment against the coronavirus comes with severe warnings in China and can kill in dosages as little as two grams.

          So can many common prescription drugs. That’s utterly irrelevant. Chloroquine is a widely used, safe drug.

          You really have to be utterly scientifically illiterate to think that “can kill in dosages as little as two grams” is a meaningful statement about any kind of drug.

            1. The only VALID comparison between COVID-19 and swine flu is to compare HOW FAST each one spread – how fast did the death toll mount? (How many died after the same number of days? )

              COVID-19 DEATH RATE 25x WORSE THAN SWINE FLU
              Proof is fully documented at the following link
              https://reason.com/2020/03/20/our-best-weapon-against-coronavirus-is-to-test-everybody/#comment-8176078

              1. The only valid comparison between COVID-19 and you is that with COVID-19, things are over one way or another; you hang around like leprosy.

                1. HEY, GOMER. THIS IS AT THE LINK YOU LIED ABOUT … BECAUSE IT HUMILIATES YOUR LYIN’ ASS.

                  COVID-19 DEATH RATE WORSE THAN SWINE FLU

                  “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time.”

                  ELIGIBLE, because none are immune, unlike seasonal flu

                  Last week, Trump said this at a news conference in the Oval Office: “If you go back and look at the swine flu and what happened with the swine flu, you’ll see how many people died and how actually nothing was done for such a long period of time, as people were dying all over the place.

                  Dying BECAUSE nothing was done! And this 25 times worse (keep reading)

                  Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.

                  … the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.

                  At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.

                  But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

                  The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

                  COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

                  The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

                  12,000 x 25 = 300,000

                  **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune. “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time

                  ****”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

          1. You really have to be utterly scientifically illiterate to think that “can kill in dosages as little as two grams” is a meaningful statement about any kind of drug.

            Not MY conclusion, Skippy. Since you cannot read, that makes you the illiterate,

            Severe denial is a mental affliction. And it’s too late to save Trump’s ass on this,

            1. Not MY conclusion, Skippy. Since you cannot read, that makes you the illiterate,

              I wasn’t referring to you as “scientifically illiterate” (you’re beyond that), I was referring to the author of that Bloomberg article.

              1. Oh, then you’re even worse than I assumed.
                THE AUTHOR WAS QUOTING AN OFFICIAL SOURCE.
                Thanks for the correction.

                (sneering is NOT a supported argument)

                1. The fact that the drug has a low therapeutic index is not in dispute. You and the reporter simply don’t understand what that fact means.

      2. He may blither, bluster and blather, but I wouldn’t call him intentionally dishonest.

        And now I’m out of b-words.

        1. Here’s lots of proof

          (Ad by the Lincoln Project, a new Super-PAC for GOP conservatives, co-founded by George Conway. Apparently, they want to deny even Trump’s re-nomination. Wise.)

          GOP Super-PAC launches attack ad – replays two years of Trump’s delays, denials and lies on coronavirus.

          Lying is nothing new from Donald Trump. Apparently, his INSANE bullshit that he knew it was a pandemic before anyone else did was a bridge too far, for many. There are nearly a dozen new video compilations, all showing him lying and denying … all proving his guilt. Well beyond a reasonable doubt. They’ll all be campaign ads.

          1. Yes that is definitely proof that you are crazy SQRLSY.

            1. Oh, come on Mary. No mention of a plastic flute? Not squirrelly.

              1. Totally SQRLSY. And we all know, from my demonstration of it, that you’re shit at picking out sockpuppets.

                Here’s more proof

                “Mary”

                That alone proves how little your opinion on who is who should matter.

                1. Talk about not getting it.

                  1. No one cares about your sex life

                    1. Please leave me alone, stalker.

                    2. No one’s making you respond to me, and you’re free to leave any time you like.

                      After I turned you down flat, you sure got super butthurt. Maybe if you left now I wouldn’t constantly mock your failure to get with this.

          2. Lying is nothing new from Donald Trump

            Nor is lying anything new from Biden, Clinton, Pelosi, or most other politicians. They are politicians. They lie. Are you too dumb to ever have that figured out, or are you so senile that you have forgotten?

            1. (lol) Trump has lied over 15,000 times in office.
              And THESE lies are killing people, needlessly.
              AS PROVEN AT MY LINK
              https://reason.com/2020/03/20/our-best-weapon-against-coronavirus-is-to-test-everybody/#comment-8175593

              Anything else?

              1. Trump has lied over 15,000 times in office. And THESE lies are killing people, needlessly.

                Just like Obama, Hillary, Pelosi, and all the other politicians then. I mean, those three people alone are probably responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, with the wars they started, the crimes they failed to prevent, and the economic stagnation they caused.

                1. NOW OUR RESIDENT ‘GENIUS’ SAYS

                  ****ALL OTHER POLITICIANS HAVE LIED OVER 15,000 TIMES IN OFFICE … LIES THAT KILLED PEOPLE.

                  ***OBAMA CAUSED THE CRASH UNDER BUSH, THE SNEAKY BASTARD.

                  Hey Gomer, how can Trump start with the longest recovery EVER for an incoming President — from Obama … have SLOWER economic growth than Obama left him (3 yrs v 3 yrs) … ALREADY add nearly as much more 8 year debt than Obama added AFTER 8 years … thus leaving us FISCALLY CRIPPLED, for the virus-caused recession that he WORSENED?

                  *** Do YOU support his PSYCHOTIC LIE, that he always knew it was a pandemic … despite calling it a “Democrat Hoax” … and denying it was even serious for two months?????

                  1. Hey Gomer, how can Trump start with the longest recovery EVER for an incoming President — from Obama

                    Indeed: we should have bounced back within 6 months from the crash, instead it took eight years. I do blame Obama and his economic policies for the “long recovery.” Those same policies also slowed down the business cycle so that the downturn that should have happened at the end of Obama’s presidency now is happening during Trump’s presidency.

                    You seem to cling to the delusions that a “long recovery” is a good thing and that the business cycle doesn’t exist.

    2. Trump may be a bombastic buffoon, but he never struck me as a liar.

      1. he’s just really bad at estimating crowd sizes.

        1. Where is the line between bombastic and dishonest? He certainly exaggerates, but he’s an entertainer. I can’t believe I’m defending him. Don’t tell JAz, lc or numb nuts. They will stroke out and then I won’t have anyone to make fun of.

          1. Bro, they barely make fun of you, you’ve just got a persecution complex.

            1. Please leave me alone, stalker.

              1. You “go on a date with me”

                Me “no”

                You “insult insult insult, you’re a stalker”

                Psychiatrist “that sarcasmic is fucked up”

      2. Trump may be a bombastic buffoon, but he never struck me as a liar.

        So … you’ve always refused to see undeniable proof?

  26. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/healthtrending/virus-drug-touted-by-trump-musk-can-kill-in-just-two-grams/ar-BB11rIHa?ocid=msedgdhp”

    (Bloomberg) — The drug touted by the U.S. President Donald Trump as a possible line of treatment against the coronavirus comes with severe warnings in China and can kill in dosages as little as two grams.

    China, where the deadly pathogen first emerged in December, recommended the decades-old malaria drug chloroquine to treat infected patients in guidelines issued in February after seeing encouraging results in clinical trials. But within days, (China) cautioned doctors and health officials about the drug’s lethal side effects and rolled back its usage.

    This came after local media reported that a Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram.

    1. Hi Robert.

    2. Now do water.

    3. Well, if you take twice the recommended dose, you’re dying of stupidity.

    4. But within days, (China) cautioned doctors and health officials about the drug’s lethal side effects and rolled back its usage. This came after local media reported that a Wuhan Institute of Virology study found that the drug can kill an adult just dosed at twice the daily amount recommended for treatment, which is one gram.

      Chloroquine has a small therapeutic index (go look it up) and it persists in the body for a long time. This may be a surprise to semi-literate Chinese peasant doctors, but their incompetence doesn’t make the drug inherently dangerous.

      When prescribed correctly and taken as prescribed, Chloroquine is safe and effective. And it is widely used already.

  27. So long as we’re thinking on morbid subjects – we’re among a tiny minority of the human race – over 99.9 percent of people who have ever lived are not living any more. If you’re reading this, presumably you’re in the minority that’s still alive. If not, skip what follows, you probably know more than I do:

    I suspect there’s a designer/creator of the universe. I no longer am so certain on the theological details, but if my hypothesis is correct, and all this complexity didn’t come by accident, then the next question is if the designer is “good” as we understand the term.

    If he’s good, why the Holocaust, plagues, all those bad TV series Glenn Garvin writes about?

    But if he’s bad, why trouble to create such a complex universe *and* give us some idea of right and wrong – not only an awareness of when someone did us wrong, but a guilt feeling when we wrong someone else? Maybe giving us a sense of right and wrong was simply sadism on the creator’s part, to make our suffering more acute in the face of horror, or maybe these standards reflect standards existing with the creator himself.

    If we’re small and finite versions of our creator, and we’re implanted with standards of right and wrong to be as it were sharers of the divine life, that would make better sense of life than if we’re just stuck here to dick around until we drop off and join the >99.9 percent.

    1. Wrong. It’s all random. You mean nothing. Nothing means anything.

      1. But you just proved predestination…because I knew somebody on HnR would say that.

      2. “Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody’s gonna die. Come watch TV?”

        – Morty Smith

    2. It’s a simulation and your job is to gather data.

      1. I’ve always been partial to the Homeric explanation: we’re all just here for the gods’ amusement

    3. So long as we’re thinking on morbid subjects – we’re among a tiny minority of the human race – over 99.9 percent of people who have ever lived are not living any more.

      Incorrect. Depending on your definition of “human”, about 5-10% of all the humans who have ever been born are alive today.

      1. Recent exponential population growth is a bitch!

        We never should have allowed the 3rd world to access our technology…

        1. Well, at least when a people gets richer, the number of children born goes down. If that’s your concern. Which I guess it is.

          Anyway, a higher proportion of humans alive than I’d assumed.

          1. That is true… But there’s a big lag period… Which is why half the people on earth in a few more decades are estimated to be Subsaharan Africans… That’s a scary thought given what a dysfunctional disaster area Africa is.

            The fact that they’re basically dependent on the rest of the world feeding them, which will have a declining population, while theirs explodes… I anticipate disaster at some point.

            Hence we should cut them off now, as it will save more future carnage.

  28. Darn it, I just thought of a joke I should have used when Tulsi Gabbard dropped out of the Presidential race.

    “This is what it sounds like when doves cry.”

  29. If a person is found to be negative for Wuhan does that mean that they have never had the virus or does it mean that they had the virus and recovered? And if they are negative, what keeps them from being positive tomorrow? Does that mean everyone needs to be tested every day? And if they are positive what clinical difference does it make? The same precautions and treatments are in order as with seasonal flu.

    1. Depends upon the test. Testing we have been administering up to now (in the US at least) I believe looks for genetic material from the virus itself and thus only tells you if you currently have it. The real “action” in the testing area, though, is with antigen testing which will tell if you have it currently or if you have had it in the recent past. The new tests awaiting FDA approval are mostly this type, many of which are relatively inexpensive, can be mass produced, can be administered at home, and give results relatively quickly.

      1. Yes, there’s a $5 test.
        https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

        Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family and contacts?

        1. And what good does that do me? How do I use the information from such a test? Testing for HIV makes sense because if you are positive and untreated, you are infectious. But that’s not true for corona.

    2. If a person is found to be negative for Wuhan does that mean that they have never had the virus or does it mean that they had the virus and recovered?

      There are several tests: live virus, viral DNA, antibodies, and lung pathology. All of them have significant error rates. Furthermore, even if you test for all of them and your test results are correct, you still don’t know, for example, whether someone who tests negative on all tests simply hasn’t been exposed or is innately resistant to the virus.

  30. I agree with this article. I believe that I contracted COVID-19 when I was in Macau or Hong Kong in late January. Came back and had the worst flu of my life for almost a solid month. At the time the hospital would not or could not test me, so I went home and quarantined myself for a month and a half. Luckily, I can work from home most of the time. Now, testing is limited, apparently not very reliable, and most tests can’t tell you if you had it, only if you have it. If I knew I had it, I’d be much more willing to help my community as well as contribute to a statistic that would help allay panic.

    1. OMG, I probably caught a computer virus from you!

    2. I’m pretty sure it won’t give you future immunity. I get a cold every damn year.

      1. Not long term immunity… but I think most illnesses do result in a window of immunity. What’s the window, here?

      2. Different virus. There are a gazillion different, though tangentially related, viruses that give you the cold or flu. Though Covid-19 does and has mutated, to the best of my knowledge exposure and recovery from one means immunity from all of its recent mutations. Which is nice, and means a vaccine won’t be an exercise in futility.

        Now, can it exist in Nature sans human infection, and mutate into a form that is different enough that the prior infected won’t be immune to it? I don’t know. Doesn’t look great, if this is what we have to look forward to every new cold and flu season.

    3. I am in Seattle, and had much the same experience. I actually got sick AGAIN with symptoms consistent with Covid, and decided to get tested as they JUST ramped up testing this week enough that I could get one. I wanted to know if I had it so I could be more active, including helping out if needed… Unfortunately I tested negative, and have no way of knowing if I had it in the past.

      When such a test is available I am totally going to pay for one even if it’s out of pocket.

      1. there’s a $5 test.
        https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

        Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family and contacts?

        1. Too bad you have to go to a provider and can’t mail order it yet! Once there is a test that can confirm antibodies, with reliability, and it can be done at home… I’m buying one.

  31. If we come up with a vaccine, it’s too bad that public health mandates that it be given to the morons who don’t have their kids vaccinated.

    1. Not the kids’ fault.

    2. No vaccine will be found.

      1. “No vaccine will be found.”

        That’s the way I’m betting, given past attempts to make vaccines for SARS and MERS. Though biology has advanced tremendously in the past 10-15 years, so who knows?

        I for damn sure wouldn’t be in the first wave of human test subjects.

  32. “Worldwide, the number of deaths exceeds 11,000”

    9600 (84%) of those were from 4 countries. China (who’s on the tail end of it), Italy (who’s getting hammered), Spain, and Iran.

  33. Wouldn’t the best weapons be an effective treatment and vaccine?

    1. *Slaps forehead* Why didn’t I think of that?

      1. Dr. Daniels’ Restorative Elixir won’t cure the virus, but it will make you stop caring so much about it.

        1. Best if taken in conjunction with Dr. Beam’s Cordial and Dr. Walker’s Sure Remedy.

          1. FDA-mandated disclaimer: You realize I was kidding about them being doctors, right?

  34. If I get the KungFlu, I will tough it out at home like if I get the Flu. Unless I have severe medical complications and need to go to the hospital, I will never be tested.

    I didnt get the Flu shot and did not get the Flu this season. Last year, the Flu laid me up for almost a week.

    1. It ain’t related to influenza. It’s related to the cold. You’d know that if you actually read articles.

      1. Where is he say it was relatex to the flu? I see a mocking epithet and a discussion that he will treat it LIKE HE TREATS THE FLU which you would know if you actually read his post and didn’t get instabutthurt.

        1. He’s giving it a name with “Flu” in it. If he knew it was a cold he wouldn’t. But he doesn’t. Because hes willfully ignorant of things that are beyond his understanding. Like the difference between a line and a square.

          1. “He’s giving it a name with “Flu” in it. ”

            WTF do you think” mocking epithet ” means you fucking drunk?

            So because he made a joke you go hyper aspie?

            Didn’t you just complain about not getting it?

            YOU FACT CHECKED A JOKE YOU SAD DRUNK FUCK get ahold of yourself.

            1. Please leave me alone, stalker.

              1. You can leave any time you like. Is it irony that you’re continually spamming “don’t talk to me” as a response to me, after you got turned down for a date?

            2. It’s called KungFlu for the LoLz idiot!

          2. “If he knew it was a cold he wouldn’t”

            Ah I understand now you don’t know how jokes work. Often, THEY ARENT STRICTLY TRUE.

            Face it, you fact checked a fucking joke because you have personal animosity.

            1. Jokes need an element of truth to be funny. That’s why nobody laughs at yours.

              Here’s one.

              Why did Tulpa choose his current name?
              Because he’s jealous that people here make friends while he’s alone and unhappy.

              Not very funny, I admit. But damn true.

              1. And now, after going full aspie and fact checking a joke, on a Friday night no less, you’re telling people what is and isn’t funny. Because you’re the fucking arbiter of that somehow.

                You’re literally so butthurt that you’re changing your argiment, now saying it wasn’t funny, because you got mocked for FACT CHECKING A JOKE.

                GET AHOLD OF YOURSELF.

                  1. Insult me because I wouldn’t go on a date with you some more.

                    1. Please leave me alone, stalker.

                    2. You’re free to leave any time you like. No one is making you respond, and you’re obviously upset that you got turned down by me.

    2. I have never had the flu in my life. *knocks on erection*
      I do get the cold, in fact I have a bad one right now.

    3. Unless I have severe medical complications and need to go to the hospital, I will never be tested.

      That’s good. Because in two to three weeks, that won’t be an option. Going to hospital I mean. Regardless of symptoms. All full at the inn

      1. NYC area hospitals are not having a good time right now. We’ll see if other places in the US get as bad. The new case numbers have temporarily dipped, per worldometers, but so did Italy’s, about a week before their current E-Ticket roller coaster ride up the new cases and deaths hill.

    4. COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu.
      Fully documented proof at this link

      https://reason.com/2020/03/20/our-best-weapon-against-coronavirus-is-to-test-everybody/#comment-8176078

  35. Jesus, what a fucking waste of time and money. Just let it run its course. As to “testing” – go get fucked. Why should anyone submit to that shit?

    1. Submit or volunteer?

      Say you’re sitting at home and not making a paycheck. If you take the test and show you’re not infectious, have antibodies, and aren’t a threat, then you can go back to work and start getting a paycheck.

      I’d do it if that was my situation.

      That ain’t submitting to nothing.

      And if lots of people did that the economy would start rolling again.

      That’s Ron’s point. And I can’t disagree.

      1. You’re an imbecile, and that didn’t even make logical sense.

        1. Please go away, stalker.

          1. You’re free to leave any time you like. No one is making you respond, and you’re obviously upset that you got turned down by me.

      2. I actually agree with sarcasmic for once!

        Knowing if you’ve had it and are immune is super useful, especially if this thing keeps slow burning its way through the population through next fall or winter.

      3. “Then you can go back to work and start getting a paycheck”.

        How is that not coercion? Yes, that is submitting.

        Now, you can argue that goin with the flow and getting tested might be helpful, but when you tie a persons paycheck to a stipulation, that is coercion.

        Most people might not care about that, so it’s all semantics to them. But the people who don’t want the test would be submitting only for the (government approved) clearance to earn a living.

        Fuck them, I guess, right?

        1. Many people are already subject to that coercion. Many people are also doing the same thing voluntarily (or because their employer told them to).
          I don’t think many here are for any of this to be government enforced.

    2. Spookkk, there’s a $5 test.
      https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

      Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family and contacts?

  36. Mandatory libertarian testing, eh?
    Libertarian bailouts and helicopter money.

    How about keeping people informed and letting them make their own decisions, keeping the economy going and removing obstacles to private companies providing enough medical equipment and supplies?

    1. YOU DEMAND THE “LIBERTY” TO INFECT AND KILL PEOPLE (if infected) … BY WHAT RIGHT?

      EDUCATE YOURSELF. COVID-19 is 25x more deadly than swine flu, and growing faster. Fully documented proof at this link
      https://reason.com/2020/03/20/our-best-weapon-against-coronavirus-is-to-test-everybody/#comment-8176078

    2. Testing everyone is certainly not desirably if it means forcing people to be tested if they don’t want to. But I suspect that making it easy for anyone to be tested would have a similar effect. Not everyone needs to be tested to get a better understanding. Just a large enough sample to get something statistically valid.

      1. Umm, the testing also tells you to SELF-QUARANTINE if positive.. unless you INTEND to infect and/or kill others …. which is why Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have self-quarantined.

        Do you not know you can be infected for up to 14 days … with no symptoms … thus a threat to your family, friends and/or co-workers?

  37. We can’t test everybody. That’s impossible. Even Korea has tested around 290,000 people, and now they’re apparently dialing back on testing healthy people. Only a fraction of the population will ever get tested, and to do that Korea had to rely on tracking and surveillance tech.

    Korea did not lock down travel from China in the first two months of the year. 70 thousand Chinese were arriving per day in January. Their government actually sent China 2 million masks (oops) and now they have a shortage.

    Trump restricted travel a bit faster, but assuming that we’re in Korea’s situation, testing would confirm less than 1% of the tested as infected. The seriously ill would be in the single digits. But we can’t send thousands of mild cases to hospital for quarantine and treatment without busting our healthcare system, and (unlike Korea) we can’t track cell phones of infected persons so we can drag them to a hospital bed once it becomes available.

    There aren’t many countries that are testing people like crazy. They don’t HAVE to. Korea is a small densely populated country and shutting a city of Deagu likely has cascading effect on nearby cities. Here I think it’s safe to assume that Idaho and Montana are safe from brunt of this infection. Target the big states with a vulnrable population.

    1. “single double digits”

    2. Ehhhhh… Kinda wrongish on all counts.

      1st, we can, and maybe should, test everybody. Not overnight obviously, but if we can run an antibody test so people know if they have already have it, all those people are then free to run about at will. That can keep the economy humming a lot more, even if we’re still having semi-lockdown stuff going on.

      Also, this shit will burn through a town of 2,000 people the same as a town of 2 million, in terms of percentages. And it will jump small towns no problem. Look at all the rural areas in Washington or NY that have had cases.

      In short, if we can crank out sub $100 dollar test like the one mentioned, then WE SHOULD. It could be vitally useful info.

      1. By the time we test everybody in this country, the crisis might be over. It’s logistically impossible.

        I haven’t heard of an antibody test. But like I said not even Korea tested everyone. Their population is 58 mil.

        1. Singapore has developed one but it still needs testing and rampup. The countries that are going to develop that are the countries that tested early and followed up with positives to note recoveries. China, Singapore, Korea, Iran, Italy.

        2. Actually, globally, there is a TON of capacity to manufacture cheap and easy tests. We could theoretically be testing millions of people like a day, or certainly a week.

          MAYBE it will be over. Maybe not. If it comes roaring back next fall, it would be mighty useful info. This thing is so wide spread it will almost certainly survive at least a single full year before burning out. Maybe it’ll come back in slight variations every year. We just don’t know.

          So having the capacity to test is important. Several places are working on antibody tests, and hopefully the can roll out en masse ASAP.

  38. pengeluaran hk merupakan situs yang menyediakan informasi hasil keluaran togel hk

    1. “HK expenditure is a site that provides HK lottery output information”?

      “I will not buy this record; it is scratched.”

      1. My hovercraft is full of eels.

  39. I make a big amount online work . How ??? Just u can done also with this site and u can do it Easily 2 step one is open link next is Click on Tech so u can done Easily now u can do it also here..>>> Click it here  

  40. All for it! The second an antibody test is available, assuming I don’t get tested positive with another test because I get sick as shit, I will be snagging one. Just to know one is impervious to this shit is very useful. I might be mildly at risk due to some lung shit that happened to me before, and I have family that most certainly is. Would be VERY useful to know if I can’t get infected.

    People who don’t get that are daft.

    1. To put it in terms a libertarian will understand:

      Imagine you found out you were immune to AIDS… Imagine how much money you could save on your hookers by only banging AIDS infected ones??? It’s like that! LOL

    2. there’s a $5 test.
      https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/

      Wouldn’t you spend $50 to test your family and contacts?

    3. Would be VERY useful to know if I can’t get infected.
      People who don’t get that are daft.

      A test shows whether or not you ARE infected.
      NOBODY is immune.
      Daft?

      1. You’re immune if you’ve already gotten it and are over it, which are thought to be about 50% of the cases.

        1. How many humans?

      2. PCR shows if you have viral RNA in you right now.

        Antibody test shows if you’re immune from previous exposure.

      3. Do you have zero reading comprehension?

        An antibody test will show if you’ve already had it, hence are immune. A currently ill test is near useless for many people, but one that shows if you have it now AND if you’ve ever had it will be vitally useful for all the people that got sick, but couldn’t be tested before they were over it.

  41. From those crazed lefties ….. The Wall Street Journal

    MOAR ridicule of the extreme alt-right, who keep WHINING the threat is not all that severe

    WALL STREET JOURNAL: AMERICA NEEDED CORONAVIRUS TESTS. THE GOVERNMENT FAILED.

    Limited testing has blinded Americans to the scale of the outbreak so far, impeding the nation’s ability to fight the virus through isolating the sick and their contacts … As of early Wednesday, about 6,500 people in the U.S. had tested positive,… but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had reported only about 32,000 tests conducted at its facilities and other public-health labs.

    Limited testing is also keeping patients like Justin LaBor in the dark, despite recent improvements. Mr. LaBor, 36 years old, said he went to the emergency room at AtlantiCare Regional Medical Center in Pomona, N.J., Monday with a fever and dry cough, symptoms typical in a coronavirus infection. Doctors admitted him, but he hasn’t been tested for the virus, he said Tuesday, gasping for breath over the phone.
    “Everyone just told me there were no tests and I didn’t check all the boxes for the state,”
    said Mr. LaBor, a social-media marketer from Elwood, N.J., referring to the criteria that state labs require patients to meet before running tests. A New Jersey health-department spokeswoman said the state “has sufficient lab capacity to test those who meet the testing criteria.” An AtlantiCare spokeswoman said the hospital system “is not testing patients in a widespread manner for coronavirus”

    Non-stop barbarity.
    Hey Donald! How many have you killed today?

    1. The CDC is responsible for testing. And initially they only allowed testing on sick individuals who had recently traveled. Mike Pence eventually allowed testing on anyone who had a doctor’s notice.

      Early testing wouldn’t have done much anyways since the CDC found out that the first round of testing kits were defective.

      Again, Korea had to ramp up test because the did not restrict travel from China in the first two months. As recently as February ROK president Moon Jae In reassured the country that things were fine and urged them to live normal lives, pointing out of the WHO recommendation that travel restrictions were no necessary (oops).

      How many other Asian nations are testing their people like crazy? Most of the don’t have to, they locked down their border in time. We ramped up testing at an earlier juncture compared to Korea, the virus may have spread there in the first week of January.

      If we lived Hihn’s open border fantasy, we’d be regularly hit by these pandemics. The H1N1 virus reached America from Mexico and Obama did nothing.

      1. Has Shikha Dalmia got any more Uninspected Entry of unidentified foreigners articles in the pipeline? The LP finally scrubbed its cyanide Kool-Aid plank mutilation of 2018, so we can at least hope to get the 12 million votes we need to stay on the replacement curve. But you can kiss the Republicans goodbye after this latest FATF kick-off of a stock market crash February 20. Letting a Chinese bureaucrat make banking regulations is stupider than bleating after uninspected entry.

  42. I was just thinking this yesterday. The government is going to throw trillions at this epidemic, wasting quite a bit of time on ham-fisted and even half-assed measures. Instead, we could be focusing on testing, getting a safe, working vaccine to market as fast as possible, and finding a safe, working treatment protocol for the disease (more effective than supportive care and treating complications alone). These would make the biggest difference IMHO.

    1. It takes at least 18 months to vet a vaccine.
      COVID-19 is 75 times more deadly than swine flu.
      You’d kill over a million people.

      1. First of all, that “million people” assumes three things:

        1. People adapt their behavior 0%., including people who have tested positive.
        2. The rise of this epidemic will be exponential, not an ebb and flow.
        3. There will be no herd immunity following any wave of infections.

        Secondly, I am fully aware of how long the vaccine would take under the present circumstances to get to market. That’s why I mentioned getting the vaccine to market as fast as possible. There are ways to do it, but no public officials or bureaucrats will risk it, even if individuals are fully aware and consent to the risk.

        1. Seems to me mid range measures are called for… Like no big sporting events, and maybe bars etc closed. But anything beyond that is too much.

          Technically we want to keep the number of cases RIGHT below the limits of what our medical system can handle at any given moment, but not above it. It actually serves no purpose to keep it at saaay half our capacity to deal with it medically, so measures extreme enough to do that are too much.

          But if we can push it out for another couple weeks, that alone could do a lot for us overall. Especially if some of these supposedly effective treatments end up being real and legit.

          If we let it go balls to the walls now there would be a lot of deaths, it’s almost guaranteed.

          1. Consider that during the polio epidemics of the 20th Century there were not the drastic measures currently being undertaken, but only those such as the middle range you wrote of. Pools and theaters closed, not businesses generally.

            The reason poliovirus became an epidemic agent was that sanitation had become too good, and fewer people developed immunity from exposure early in life.

  43. Sᴛᴀʀᴛ ᴡᴏʀᴋɪɴɢ ғʀᴏᴍ ʜᴏᴍᴇ! Gʀᴇᴀᴛ ᴊᴏʙ ғᴏʀ sᴛᴜᴅᴇɴᴛs, sᴛᴀʏ-at-home moms or anyone needing an extra income… You only need a computer and a reliable internet connection… Mᴀᴋᴇ $90/h and up to $12000 a month by following link at the bottom and sɪɢɴɪɴɢ ᴜᴘ…
    More Read Here

  44. The only VALID comparison between COVID-19 and swine flu is to compare HOW FAST each one spread – how fast did the death toll mount? (How many died after the same number of days? Simple graphs at the source)

    COVID-19 DEATH RATE 25 TIMES WORSE THAN SWINE FLU
    “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time.”

    ELIGIBLE, because none are immune, unlike seasonal flu

    Last week, Trump said this at a news conference in the Oval Office: “If you go back and look at the swine flu and what happened with the swine flu, you’ll see how many people died and how actually nothing was done for such a long period of time, as people were dying all over the place.

    Dying BECAUSE nothing was done! And this 25 times worse (keep reading)

    Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention track the increase of H1N1 swine flu in 2009 from the day of the first death – April 28th, 2009 — compared with the rise of COVID-19 since the first U.S. coronavirus death was reported in Washington on Feb. 29.
    Through Monday, the CDC had confirmed 4,226 COVID-19 cases in 16 days since the first death.

    At the same stage in 2009, the CDC had tallied 3,352 H1N1 cases.
    But, contrary to Trump’s claims, the death rate for COVID-19 has far outpaced H1N1 over the same span.

    The CDC had confirmed 75 COVID-19 deaths through Monday. By contrast, 16 days after the first swine flu death, there were only three H1N1 deaths reported to the CDC.

    COVID-19 is 25 times more deadly than swine flu

    The CDC estimates about 12,000 Americans ended up dying from swine flu between April 2009 and April 2010.

    12,000 x 25 = 300,000

    **”… (swine flu) didn’t go away. Many people don’t realize it’s now part of the seasonal flu and covered by the annual flu vaccine. … COVID-19 is completely new, is hitting on top of the seasonal flu, has no vaccine and clearly warrants the stronger response because nobody is immune. “The challenge with COVID-19 is we are all eligible to get sick and spread the disease all at the same time

    ****”Less than two years ago, the seasonal flu was especially deadly. It killed an estimated 61,000 Americans, but it didn’t overwhelm health care workers and hospitals, as COVID-19 did in Italy and threatens to in the U.S. Those people (with seasonal flu) were spread out from November to April or May. Our healthcare system is designed to handle that kind of load. Not so with COVID-19.”

  45. Thanks to the fear induced in ‘Intelligent’ people, I went to the store yesterday for food for the weekend. No eggs, no bacon, no sausage, no bread cereal or milk. No lunch meat, soup or pasta. Welcome to soviet america! So, now what? Shelter-in-place? Starve quietly to death? Fuck this and Fuck you fear-mongers with a red hot poker.

    1. Think I’ll go outside and start coughing, wonder how long before the cops show??

    2. Why are you so enraged that consumers are exercising their market freedom? Obviously, the soviet is you,.

      Try another store. I just got back and the only thing I couldn’t buy was toilet paper.

      My store may be smarter than yours. A lot smarter. They have signs with a maximum purchase (mostly one or two items) on all “stockup” goods. News reports say many grocers are doing the same.

      Fuck this and Fuck you fear-mongers with a red hot poker.

      Does anyone believe him?
      Anyone else attack the voluntary actions of free consumers, or just the soviet mentality.

      1. Nothing says “voluntary actions of free consumers” like artificially imposed purchase limits…

        1. STORES HAVE THE RIGHT TO THE VOLUNTARY ACTIONS OF FREE MARKETS

          like artificially imposed purchase limits…

          See above.

    3. Maybe you should have been smart like me and had 6 months or so of food at home before all this shit happened?

      It sure is fun being a moderate prepper during this shit. I need literally NOTHING right now. The stores I go to have mostly had everything anyway, but I’ve just been doing regular shopping since I already have my stockpile.

      Maybe this will teach people to actually be prepared for shit. I was always expecting an earthquake to be the emergency I might need my stuff for… But all my kit works just as well for a pandemic!

      I’ve actually been thinking about selling some of my supplies to suckers at highly inflated rates… I wonder what I could get for my individually wrapped alcohol wipes right now. I could spare 500 or so out of my stockpile I think. LOL

      1. (laughing) For how many years have you kept 6 months of food in your home?
        Decades???

        1. Why would you LOL?

          I don’t have food just expiring all over the place. I just keep a stock of staples, and some freeze dried food I use for camping. It isn’t an inconvenience for me at all, and I ALWAYS have random pantry stuff to eat when I want to!

          I’m also prepared for if we have an earthquake or anything else, like, I dunno, a pandemic.

          Why idiots think it’s funny/weird/freaky that some people are smart enough to prepare for inevitable natural (or manmade) disasters is beyond me. Shit happens. The government itself says you should have stuff stocked up!

  46. An idiotic proposal that would accomplish nothing.

  47. I’ve been screaming this for a week.

    Why are we only testing sick people and only publicizing the positive results? It does nothing from a public health perspective except stoke more panic.

    1. Because it stokes more panic. In a few weeks massive testing will be available and none of these measures will seem sane at all. Gotta exploit the issue while they can.

      1. HOW MANY WILL DIE IN THE NEXT “FEW WEEKS”

        IT’S KINDA CRAZY TO SAY NOBODY IS TRACKING THE NEGATIVE TESTS. WHEN WE SEE A PERCENTAGE THAT WERE INFECTED, THEY DIVIDE ONE NUMBER INTO ANOTHER WHICH TWO NUMBERS ARE THEY?

    2. We aren’t just testing sick people.

      Colorado is only testing contact tracked or ‘symptomatics’ who go to doctor. But even with very late testing rollout this last week only 10% test positive.

      What we’ve got to do is stop testing people who just go to the doctor looking for a fucking test. More of Trumps stupid fucking advice. Anyone who wants a test can get a test. Just STFU you stupid old fart.

      What they need to do is test medical workers and all hospital patients now. Get those positives started in isolation and on the road to recovery (or for medical workers, first place in line for hospital treatment). Otherwise hospitals will become main vector for transmission and we will see a Third World outcome here.

      1. It is really disappointing to see that we are STILL making dumb decisions overall now that we are fully in fast-and-furious mode.

        The CDC is an utter failure. If I were Prez I would, after this first wave – call for its immediate closure and shitcanning of every employee. I think that’s the only way you can get rid of bureaucrats. Then open up a new CDC – rehire all the low-level staff that day and force the higher-level staff to prove they weren’t part of the problems there over the last six or so months. I suspect there is a ton of corruption and capture and fiefdom pissing among them.

        And rethink why this is a federal agency in the executive branch rather than an interstate compact form. States would clearly hold CDC more accountable than DC has. Cheaper too. And that form would also allow states to opt out of public health mandates so the antivaxxers and this ain’t even flu and I don’t need to steenkin test and who are you to say I can’t infect others and elp elp I’m being oppressed folks could flock there.

        This is gonna take more than a few Darwin awards. Best thing for everyone is for that to be done by choice rather than coercion and for it to be concentrated in the places of choice.

        1. Yup. CDC and FDA bureaucracy were actually responsible for almost 100% of the botched stuff that has happened so far.

          I got tested, since I’m in Seattle, and had all the symptoms. I basically got in when they FINALLY got their first big ass supply of tests. I wish I’d had it honestly, so I’d know I was immune.

    3. Why are we only testing sick people

      TO FIND OUT IF THEY’RE SICK! (LOL)

  48. The CDC apparently isn’t updating their website over the weekend, but reports are that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. went from 15,219 on Friday to 19,624 today. There were about 4,200 confirmed cases in the U.S. on Tuesday.

    We should expect to see cases continue to double again, from Friday to Monday, and, hopefully, they’ll start tapering off as the effects of people cloistering themselves means the spread of the virus will slow down–but I wouldn’t bet on that, nor would I assume that because the tsunami is slowing down that it won’t overrun the city.

    1. Why can you not understand that the number of positive tests right now has ZERO to do with how many new infections there are? It’s just that we are finally getting results from tests at all. One thing we are not getting is large numbers of deaths right now. Looking at the Worldometer tracker for the US, we are at 288 total right now, which is up maybe 50 in 24 hours? At this point, Italy was getting hundreds per day. And we need to remember that we started seeing cases here about the same time Italy did- it’s not like we are running months behind. I pay particular attention to Washington, since to me that seemed like a place with the potential to become our Lombardy. It’s where the earliest cases were, it took hold in a very vulnerable elderly community and we saw some alarming early deaths in that community. There has probably been more testing going on there longer than about anywhere else. As of right now, Worldometer is showing no new cases or new deaths today from Washington. It may be a blip in the data, or it may be that they have a bunch of either not yet reported, but it is worth watching.

      Also, it’s fucking stupid that the CDC is taking the weekends off from reporting data during this. If they are going to make us live like this is the end of the world, the least they can do is give us good information so we know where things stand.

      1. And Washington must have not submitted data yet, because now they show +269 cases and 11 deaths for today. Which aren’t earth shattering numbers, but obviously not zero.

      2. Why can you not understand that the number of positive tests right now has ZERO to do with how many new infections there are?

        THANKS!
        We KNOW actual infections are worse than reported, but not how much worse, thanks to our ongoing failures getting test kits out.

        Dr. Sonjay Gupta says we’re on the same curve at Italy, but 10 days behind. Yesterday, Italy had 792 DEATHS, from 1/5 our population. If we stain a much smaller c

        1. cont’d

          Dr. Sonjay Gupta says we’re on the same curve as Italy, but 10 days behind. Yesterday, Italy had 792 DEATHS, from 1/5 our population.

          If we stay on the same curve, we’ll see 4,000 deaths in a single day, at month-end.

        2. Yup… It’ll be interesting to see if all these draconian measures save our asses a little bit. I think we did manage to clamp things down before Italy did in terms of the timelines we’re both on.

  49. And how many deaths due to the flu per day? Most of these folks have underlying conditions and are on the edge right now. Open mobile hospitals to treat the high risk infected individuals, have healthy folks with symptoms to stay home for two weeks.

    Herd immunity is the best way forward

    1. It’s the ONLY way forward… But pushing the spike out is very intelligent for a lot of reasons.

      Amusingly enough, we’re actually saving a ton of lives of old people from flu death too by the same measures.

      1. People die. Vek is amused.

    2. Herd immunity is the best way forward

      Arguably, herd immunity is what got us here. If the regular flu last year had killed more people, there would’ve been fewer deaths this year.

      Herd immunity as policy is an overt socialist myth.

  50. The silver lining is that now everybody looks like Hong Kong citizens protesting against the commie bioweapons dictatorship!

  51. Daftar Bandar Casino Online Terpercaya : This is a good thing, but it must be tested well so that nothing worse happens.

  52. The test that’s currently being used in the Bay Area is terrible. It takes 3-5 days to get the results, and the number of false negatives are sky high. The docs say that you really need TWO negative tests to conclude that you aren’t infected. I know a half-dozen people who think they had the bug, but no one has been tested more than once, and the test results for all of them have been negative.

    1. My test results got back in under 24 hours in Seattle last week. Don’t know about the double test thing… Hopefully I didn’t get a false negative!

  53. Man, this shit is getting out of hand!!

    This virus is far less deadly than the seasonal flu but people are losing their collective minds because of the way the press and politicians are overhyping the damn thing!

    People just need to take a deep breath, calm down and stop the insanity!! This is nothing more than an upper respiratory infection, just like certain flues. You will survive, even if you get it.

    1. OMG. Have you not looked at ANY of the facts about this thing???

      It is far more deadly than the flu. Get your facts straight dumbass. I’m not going to bother writing more than that.

  54. Do you have a pay~pal, in the event if you do you can generate an extra 650 a week to your earnings just working on the internet for a few hours each week. check this

    href=”http://bit.ly/2P1rshj” rel=”nofollow ugc”>Read More

  55. You have a pay pal account… in the event if you have you can create an extra 1500 weekly in your income just working at home a few hours. go to this site
    Read More

  56. The headline’s use of a plural pronoun almost guarantees that what follows will be some statist pablum. Sure enough, Bailey starts off with a desire for EVERYBODY to give the government a blood sample. What could go wrong? “Our” government would never abuse that data! (He doesn’t go into what will happen to those who refuse.) After Bailey’s “researchers” (who?) digest all that data, then somebody called “us” would evaluate the usefulness of lockdowns. Yes, I know who that “us” is and we already know what decision would be made: Oh, YES, more and more government power is needed — for details of that, see Bill Barr.

    1. How does the gummint abuse blood samples … to enslave all of humanity?

  57. I am making 7 to 6 dollar par hour at home on laptop ,, This is make happy But now i am Working 4 hour Dailly and make 40 dollar Easily .. This is enough for me to happy my family..how ?? i am making this so u can do it Easily…. Read more  

  58. No, we don’t need to test EVERYBODY for corona virus for the same reason we don’t give EVERYONE who turns 50 a colonoscopy.

  59. Bailey, the guy who advocated mandatory vaccinations, also advocates that everybody get tested for coronavirus and does so either blissfully unaware of or fully aware and shamelessly lying in support of people who would use such authority to do far worse than … wait no, they’d pretty much suck their blood and inject them with anything they saw fit to inject them with.

  60. One of the problems with testing everyone is what do you do with those who test negative. They would need to be quarantined away from all untested citizens and all citizens who tested positive.

    If you don’t keep them away from all the “untested” people, then there is a good chance they could become infected later. You would have to quarantine entire areas, (cities/counties), stopping all in/out traffic from the area until all the citizens were tested. Basically, you would need to test everybody in the US in one day to bring this virus spreading to a screeching halt.

  61. ★  I am making $98/hour telecommuting. I never imagined that it was honest to goodness yet my closest companion is acquiring $20 thousand a month by working on the web, that was truly shocking for me, she prescribed me to attempt it. simply give it a shot on the accompanying site.. go to home media tech tab for more detail reinforce your heart…… Read more

  62. Sᴛᴀʀᴛ ᴡᴏʀᴋɪɴɢ ғʀᴏᴍ ʜᴏᴍᴇ! Gʀᴇᴀᴛ ᴊᴏʙ ғᴏʀ sᴛᴜᴅᴇɴᴛs, sᴛᴀʏ-at-home moms or anyone needing an extra income… You only need a computer and a reliable internet connection… Mᴀᴋᴇ $90/h and up to $12000 a month by following link at the bottom and sɪɢɴɪɴɢ ᴜᴘ… You can have your first check ʙʏ ᴛʜᴇ ᴇɴᴅ ᴏғ ᴛʜɪs ᴡᴇᴇᴋ…
    More Read Here

  63. Just as soon as we see COVID-19 home-testing units on the shelf’s for $0.99; I’m pretty sure just about everyone will be “tested”.

    Of course that only happens in FREE MARKETS where government isn’t running the sh#t-Show.

Please to post comments