Super Tuesday

Bill Weld: I'm Not Dropping Out After Super Tuesday

Trump's outgunned primary challenger says he'd endorse Biden and Bloomberg but not Sanders, and that Republicans might still go the way of the Whigs.


Bill Weld, the former Massachusetts governor and 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential nominee, is facing some brutal odds this Super Tuesday in his Quixotic quest to wrest the GOP presidential nomination from incumbent Donald Trump.

Weld, who lost to Trump by nearly 96 percentage points in Iowa and nearly 77 in New Hampshire, then watched helplessly as Nevada and South Carolina ceded all delegates to the president rather than hold elections, has not as an official candidate polled higher than 14 percent in any of the 13 states (worth a combined 785 delegates) voting Tuesday. Trump's margin in national polls has not dipped below 80 percentage points since October, and his approval rating among Republicans rests at 93 percent. The president's combined campaign-finance juggernaut is outraising Weld by a ratio of 300 to 1.

And yet the perpetually chipper redhead still sees some upside to his long shot bid. More than half of Super Tuesday states, including Trump-averse Utah, have not been polled. In his home state of Massachusetts, Weld was endorsed by the Boston Globe, in an effort "to salvage time-honored conservative principles and to change the shabby tone of the Trump era."

And though he no longer dreams of being 1992 Pat Buchanan or 1968 Eugene McCarthy, Robert Mueller's old boss does hold out hope that his minor electoral contribution might yet be enough to derail the 2020 Trump train.

"Steve Bannon said that if the president loses four percent of the traditional Republican vote, he cannot be re-elected," Weld told me in a phone interview Monday afternoon. "If that's true, that's a marker I can meet. And it would not pain me to think that I had some responsibility for bringing it about that Donald J. Trump was not re-elected president."

Weld, who has campaigned consistently on reducing debt/deficits, updating 1990s-flavored moderate-conservative reform for the 21st century, and railing against Trump's unfitness, also told me that he still thinks the Republican Party might go the way of the Whigs, and that a "strong third party" including "centrist Democrats" and "centrist libertarians" might rise from the ashes in 2021 or 2022. He also said he would back Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg if they became the Democratic presidential nominee, though not Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) at this time.

The following is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation:


Reason: What results do you need to see tomorrow to stick in until Wednesday?

Weld: Well, I'll be sticking in anyway. I mean, we've got Michigan coming up on the 10th. We've got Florida coming up on the 17th. So I don't want to miss those.

In terms of tonight, I would say my top three states are probably Vermont, Massachusetts, and Utah. I've been endorsed by Evan McMullin, who got 20 percent-plus in Utah last time. Had some very nice visits out there with the [Latter Day Saints] folks, who I get along with very well. So that's why that's in the top three. […]

Colorado is an open primary, and I think unpredictable—I'm not predicting victory there, but that could be an interesting state. California, likewise, not predicting victory, because it's a closed primary, but Trump has really declared open war on California, so that could be of interest. Otherwise, I'd like to see what happens in Texas and North Carolina, Tennessee. It should be an enjoyable evening.

Reason: What have you learned in this process since you jumped in?

Weld: I've learned that the duopoly in Washington, D.C., is every bit as bad as Gary Johnson and I thought it was four years ago. It's really paralyzing the country and preventing forward motion. When you have a president of the United States who shares that poisonous view and is vengeful into the bargain, that makes it even worse. So that's what I've learned!

It's all about Washington, D.C., the bad stuff—it's not about the state capitals and states, it's not about the Trump voters. I think it's about Donald Trump, the increased negativity.

Reason: What have you observed on a state-by-state level, including even in Massachusetts to the extent that it's relevant, about the way that Trump and the national GOP has muscled in on state GOPs, or that just state GOPs know that in order to be popular you need to stay in good with the president?

Weld: Well, no, it's not that they're inferring anything, it's that they're told things. Because once the Republican National Committee merged its operations with the Trump campaign, then from that point forward the Republican state committee in every single state was, is, and remains the Trump organization. So it doesn't pay me to try to bark up that tree.

My strategy needs to be, and has been, to try to increase the number of people voting in the Republican primary—more women, more younger voters, more minorities, et cetera, et cetera. Just voters who are perhaps marginally more likely to rally to my flag than a classical Republican voter who's voted in the last five Republican primaries.

Reason: You mentioned that the duopoly is every bit as strong, if not stronger. And yet we're on the verge of having Trump, who was an outsider, take over the Republican Party and mold it in his image, largely. And Bernie Sanders is on the verge of being a democratic socialist independent who might do the same with the Democratic Party. What do you make of that paradox? So, the duopoly is super strong and yet vulnerable to takeover by kind of anti-establishment figures?

Weld: Well, I'm not sure Sanders is going to get there, frankly. Most people seem to think that he will.

I think Donald Trump essentially cemented his takeover of what I'll call the Trump faction of the Republican Party…when 52 Republican senators not only said, "We don't want to hear any evidence," they also said, "We really don't want to consider whether you should be removed from office, although the Constitution requires us to do so." That was not a good showing.

And I know that a number of them have said to the press on background since their vote, "I did it because of fear. I did it because I was fearful the president would run somebody against me to my right in the primary, and I would lose my seat." I'll tell you, if that was the case with me, I would never have admitted that to anybody on or off the record! That's a shameful admission.

Reason: You and I talked a lot in 2017 and 2018 when you were still doing a lot of activities within the Libertarian Party; you had an analysis of the Republican Party facing a future in which maybe they go the way of the Whigs, maybe they kind of split apart and get reborn anew into something else, or explode. I want you to re-evaluate that analysis. And then also, might that be happening on the Democratic side as well?

Weld: Well, victory is a wonderful salve. And if the Democrats win the election, I don't think that'll happen, Democratic side.

On our side, yeah, no, I think the same thing I did last time. And this time, because of their votes to acquit without hearing any evidence, I think the Republican senators are vulnerable this year.

I saw this happen with the Nixon impeachment when people who had gone through the draining exercise of defending President [Richard] Nixon all summer long and saying, "There's insufficient evidence that he knew about the Watergate conspiracy to tank the Jaworski investigation"—they lost their seats. Including people like Rep. Wiley Mayne from Iowa, who had won handsomely [before] but was voted out. I mean, they looked kind of ridiculous.

I'm not sure that a number of the Republican senators this time around don't look ridiculous. So I think there's a decent chance that the Republicans will lose the Senate.

Then you could see some finger-pointing and forces at play that could cause a split-up of the party, similar to the split-up of the Whigs in the 1850s with the Know-Nothing faction, which was founded on anti-immigrant prejudice. It was all the Catholics from Germany and Italy and Ireland that they hated, and they had violent rallies and they had conspiracy theories. It's a carbon copy of the Trump faction now. But they did pinwheel out into outer space and were never heard from again. Except for Speaker Nathaniel Banks of the Massachusetts House, who also became speaker of the U.S. House, I think. But he was an outlier. So I think that could happen again, and I'm not sure it'd be a bad thing.

You might see a third party—a strong third party, not a single-issue third party—emerge out of the remnants of traditional Republicans. Some centrist Democrats, some centrist libertarians. That could be an interesting party. I'll just call it the Unity Party for the time being. That's something that could happen. But it's not going to happen in 2020. It would be 2021, 2022.

Reason: It's not hard to look at your situation and see some pretty bad math…So what are some glass-half-full analyses of the numbers going into tomorrow, even if there are some lopsided defeats?

Weld: Well, although you'd always like to win any contest you get into, and I'm no stranger to long odds—my first governor's race, I won, even though I started at sub-asterisk levels and everyone laughed and said, "You got to get out of this race"—however, I do think that of the reasons that I'm running, number one is I think I could start Monday on the job, and I have half a dozen things that I think desperately need doing. But number two is—and the reason I ran as a Republican this time as opposed to a Libertarian—one of the reasons is that every vote for me, even a write-in vote for me, is not a vote for Trump.

Steve Bannon said that if the president loses 4 percent of the traditional Republican vote, he cannot be re-elected. I don't know whether Bannon was being serious or not, but he's usually serious. And if that's true, that's a marker I can meet. And it would not pain me to think that I had some responsibility for bringing it about that Donald J. Trump was not re-elected president.

Reason: I know you don't spend a lot of time commenting on the Democratic race, for obvious reasons, but is it safe to assume that if it's candidate Biden or Bloomberg, you would vote or encourage people to vote Democrat? And if it's candidate Sanders, you're going to wait and see who the Libertarians nominate?

Weld: That's exactly correct.

NEXT: The New Right-Wing Program of Cultural Nationalism Is Un-American and Illiberal

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    1. Welchie Boy is the Chris Matthews of Professional Fake Libertarian gaslighting.

      1. To be fair, we also dont care what Welch says, just like most of us never cared what Chris Matthews said.

      2. The operative phrase in that “every conservative writer you know”. Conservative writers likely don’t give the current (T)reason staff the time of day. The ones that do are probably folks like George Will or Bill Kristol, who don’t even get invited to CPAC anymore because they were exposed so badly as hypocrites by their TDS. Or maybe, MAYBE, Jonah Goldberg, who got drummed out of National Review by the readers and is now positioning himself to be Kristol2.0.

        So yeah…go ahead and off the entire staff of The Weekly Standard. Nobody will notice.

      3. Grifter gonna grift.

    2. I wonder if old Bill realized that Welch was secretly fantasizing about hacking him to bits.

      1. Geld is another neoliberal democrat who gets his jollies pretending to be anything other than what he really is.

        Welchie Boy wants to kill conservatives, not his fellow neoliberals.

        1. He’s just running for the free drinks. Even fourth-tier candidates can drink for free at their miniscule campaign events.

    3. Now would be a good time to throw a big cocktail party in New York or Washington, and invite every single conservative writer you know. #RedWedding2

      Welch would still not get a cocktail party invitation.

  1. “perpetually chipper redhead”

    This sounds like a future commenter’s screen name.

  2. “Steve Bannon said that if the president loses four percent of the traditional Republican vote, he cannot be re-elected,” Weld told me in a phone interview Monday afternoon. “If that’s true, that’s a marker I can meet. And it would not pain me to think that I had some responsibility for bringing it about that Donald J. Trump was not re-elected president.”

    After complimenting Hillary Clinton while pretending to be a Libertarian in 2016, Weld admits he’s trying to help Democrats win in 2020. Possibly a socialist.

    1. Bill Weld is a joke. Even if Trump could not or did not want to take the Republican nomination, Republicans would not pick Bill Weld to be the Republican candidate.

    2. Bill Weld’s sole purpose in the campaign is to make sure that Republicans lose.

  3. “He also said he would back Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg if they became the Democratic presidential nominee“

    So he’s for gun control and Medicaid for all?

    1. Well he supported Clinton too. So yes.

    2. That’s why Reason has always supported him. They are from the self described, even this article, Quixotic libertarian party.

      1. unreason supports Bill Weld because he is willing to keep Libertarians and Republicans from destroying the Democrat Party.

        Bill Weld has always been a Democrat but there are no real barriers to people signing up for whatever political party they want.

        1. It is the east coast show vote form of libertarianism. They dont actually want wins because then they’d have to do hard work and work their philosophy inside of reality. They prefer the Amash level of effort of shallow votes on principle while not actually integrating their goals with a populace that doesnt fully accept their principles.

          1. I’m not saying two parties only is the best way but if the two parties were Libertarians and the other party was Libertarian-ish, the voters would have to pick the better of two Good, rather than the lesser of two evils.

            Use incrementalism to return to government fiscal sanity.

    3. I thought Weld pretended to be Republican? He’s not even trying anymore.

      1. He pretended to be Libertarian last time.

  4. Who on Earth cares what Bill Weld thinks, says or does? Seriously? He supported Hillary Clinton last go-around.

  5. What a joke.

  6. Bill Weld is a joke.

    But hey, idiots still give him money, so Weld might as well get lunch on that money while “campaigning”.

    No Republican wants Bill Weld. No Libertarian wants Bill Weld. I am so glad that Trump won in 2016 and Bill Weld never got near the White House.

    Go away asshole!

  7. “Bill Weld: I’m Not Dropping Out After Super Tuesday”

    That’s nice.

    Am I supposed to care?

    1. Yup. Bill who?

      Bill Weld was never any competition to Donald Trump anyway.

    2. Actually, he’s convinced me to vote in the Republican primary in Michigan for the first time in my life.

      I’ll be voting against some County spending anyway, but still, anecdotally, he’s having the opposite effect from what he hopes.

      1. Then….go Bill Weld! Help make sure voters don’t pick politicians like you and vote to cut government spending.

  8. “and “centrist libertarians”

    That is as funny as the concept of a centrist state socialist – or a centrist authoritarian

    1. Libertarians are Centrist on a L-R Political Spectrum. While Libertarianism is a spectrum range of positions, that range never included Bill Weld.

      GayJay dragged Bill Weld along for the ride and we knew that neither would ever be in the White House.

  9. I might as well announce that I’m not dropping out after Super Tuesday either. And neither is my wife, Morgan Fairchild. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

  10. Awww, that’s cute. Sure, Bill, you can have some more time to play in the sandbox if you want to.

  11. As many commenters already made note, why right this article? Why not maybe right an article about, oh I don’t know, a libertarian candidate? Why does this site give so much press to the parties it purports to detest? Why not right articles showing how freedom and liberty have the solutions to these problems, instead of just pointing out the problems so often? I mean you could have written an article about Jacob Hornberger instead of Bill Weld, but maybe you thought this was more interesting or important somehow. Really an article about Vermin Supreme would have had more opportunity to showcase the strengths of the libertarian philosophy rather than an article about this guy.

    1. “why right this article?”

      Should’ve left this article… am-I-write?

      1. Haha yeah you got me!

        1. 😉

          More to your point, I think this was a worthwhile read. If nothing else, it was a good laugh at the walking absurdity that is Bill Weld. I didn’t get the feeling that Mr. Walsh was necessarily promoting the old flip-flopper.

          Definitely agree, though, that I would like to see more articles about Libertarian candidates, particularly Hornberger and Jorgensen.

    2. unreason staff hates Libertarians because Libertarians were mean to them. Trump is a meanie too.

  12. No Libertarian would dream of endorsing Bloomberg, can we stop pretending this statist clown is one of us?

  13. Weld isn’t a long shot. He’s a no shot. Literally, he’s so far down there that if Trump died tomorrow, Weld would STILL lose.

    And why is a nominally Libertarian publication promoting a candidate whose express purpose is to make sure the less libertarian major party candidate wins? Rhetorical question, Reason is only nominally libertarian these days.

    1. unreason is so fucked up and lying about being anything Libertarian. unreason is not even covering any Libertarian candidate or any pro-Libertarian ballot issue anywhere in the voting states today.

      1. Yeah, I’m wondering if the ‘nominally’ is even deserved at this point.
        Unfortunately, Reason ‘Not totally devoid of libertarian news’ Magazine still makes it better than many alternatives.

        1. The comments are. Not the articles. You can find the same Propaganda nonsense at NBC, AP, NPR, Fox, Politico, Vox…

          1. I do think they get some credit for criminal justice reform, occupational license stuff (including the engineer traffic light story) and 1st and 2nd amendment issues. But it’s becoming fewer and farther between, and doesn’t even always make the case from a strict libertarian POV.

      2. Demonstrably untrue. Welch has covered Libertarian candidates. Clearly its not a huge part of Reason’s coverage by why would it be? There are a bunch of libertarian podcasts, websites, etc. that spend very little time covering the LP. Is Tom Woods now a “fucked up” libertarian too, just because he doesn’t really cover the LP on his podcast except for a random episode here and there?

  14. As if it matters.

  15. “Trump’s outgunned primary challenger says he’d endorse Biden and Bloomberg but not Sanders, and that Republicans might still go the way of the Whigs.”

    This isn’t particularly surprising since Weld effectively endorsed Hillary Clinton when he was running for Vice President on the Libertarian ticket in 2016.

    Here’s Welch’s former colleague, Kennedy, skewering Weld to his face for it, too.

    No one in the Libertarian party should care what Weld has to say about anything, and hardly anyone in the Republican party knows who he is–much less what he’s saying.

    1. Kennedy is probably the only true libertarian on corporate media right now.

  16. Bill Weld: I’m Not Dropping Out After Super Tuesday

    Let’s see if anyone notices.

  17. “And it would not pain me to think that I had some responsibility for bringing it about that Donald J. Trump was not re-elected president.”

    Because what says ‘libertarian’ more than aiding socialism?

  18. The only evidence that Utah is Trump adverse that is ever offered is the 2016 election results, were there was a Mormon, Constitutional Party nominee on the ballot who was well known in Utah politics. This isn’t evidence Trump is unpopular (he did really well in Wyoming and Idaho who are number 3 and number 2 respectively in Mormon population). Trump did really well in the Mormon counties in these states. Trump also won 6 of the top 10 states with the largest Mormon population (Washington, Oregon, Hawaii and Nevada are the other four, he didn’t lose these states because he underperformed with Mormons). If the recent reaction to Romney’s impeachment vote is any indication, Trump is plenty popular in Utah.

    1. The fact was was that Utah was never competitive and many voters decided to cast a vote for someone they knew, knowing it didn’t matter. Weld is a RINO (I rarely use that term) and unlike Romney, he isn’t Mormon.

      1. Weld basically rolled over and let the dems rub his belly when he was Mass governor, agreeing to every tax hike they sent to him and the Big Dig. I wouldn’t even call him a RINO. He also was a big fan of law and order, lock em up policies, so definitely not a libertarian either. He’s a narcissistic schmuck

        1. Basically.

          1. His nomination as VP was one of the main reasons I had misgivings about voting for Johnson, though I did in the end.

            1. Yep. And I regret it now. What’s the point of “throwing my vote away” based on principle, for a party that isn’t doing a good job following those principles.

              I and others have mentioned it before, but the party’s reaction to Kaitlin Bennett’s incident at Ohio U showed me a complete lack of understanding of the NAP.

      2. The fact was was that Utah was never competitive and many voters decided to cast a vote for someone they knew, knowing it didn’t matter. Weld is a RINO (I rarely use that term) and unlike Romney, he isn’t Mormon. He is also

        1. And, I will admit this is anecdotal, based upon my personal experience with some very devout Mormons (my Mom’s family is very Mormon and very large, one cousin has ten kids and another 9, at the time of my Grandma’s death there were 6 kids, three of whom belonged to the Church, 37 grandkids, 120+ great grandkids, almost 75% of the LDS. My best man and best friend since childhood was also LDS) they are almost uniformly pro-Trump, some extremely so. I argued with them quite a bit in 2016 about it.

          1. Why wouldn’t Mormons be happy with Trump. He leaves them alone, got lower taxes rates (need large incomes to support 9-10 kids), and exposed how bad Mitt Romney is for Utah.

            1. Basically.

  19. Someone has to be the gay candidate now that Pete has quit

    1. A day or two after Ruby Ridge, Bill Weld was extolling the federal agents who assassinated Vicki Weaver and Sammy Weaver. Weld was lamenting the loss of a “hero” – William Degan, one of the assassins.

      1. Exactly. This guy makes Trump look like an angel which is not an easy feat.

    2. Maybe Evan McMullen will fill that role.

  20. Steyer blew something over $200M wasting our time with his hot air; I can only hope that Weld blows his bottom dollar in a similar effort.

    1. He spent $3500 on every vote he got.

      1. Sorry, flagged your comment by mistake trying to kill stupid popup video.

  21. Serious question:

    Why do you go work for the Weld campaign? Or even more puzzling, volunteer for Weld for President.

    He ain’t winning. He ain’t even making a serious statement. I get why Weld might do it… it raises his personal profile and he does get some credit from the establishment for being a nevertrumper.

    But if you are a 26 year old polysci major and you want to build a career in politics… Weld?

    My neighbor’s son was a wanna-be paramedic but couldn’t pass the tests. So his dad got him a job with a couple of local (D) campaigns, and he went and got a job working for Bloomberg’s original presidential run. Then he worked for Biden for a few years. Now he’s pretty high up in the Biden campaign. That’s a career path that makes sense. Pick the right ass to kiss and you can come along for the ride.

    But Weld? That’s not even a stepping stone. That’s kinda like having “bulkhead engineer for the Titanic” on your resume.

    Yet presumably he has donors and volunteers and a staff and everything.

    1. – William F. Weld (R)

      I don’t think Weld has much of anything. As of February 21, 2020 he has $18,190 cash on hand and no campaign donations. Weld spent $1,834,341 out of $1,852,532 as of Jan 31, 2020.

      1. Almost 2 million in donations seems nuts to me.

        Cut that check to me…. I’ll put it to better use.

        Hell, Bender would put it to better use on hookers and blow.

      2. Cash on Hand – $18,190
        Debts – $250,800


        1. That is a huge scam and everyone in the Beltway knows it.

          Lefties blame Trump for stiffing contractors. IIRC, some of that was from bankrupt casinos. Some of its straight bullshit since new contractors worked with Trump all the time.

          $250,800 means that someone is getting actually stiffed and there will be no bankruptcy. Politicans never want to leave unclaimed in those campaigns. Weld is finished and he knows it, so he’s running up as much as he can before the credit and donation river runs dry.

          1. Everybody “stiffs” contractors occasionally. The very reason you only pay part up front, and the rest on completion to your satisfaction is that it allows you to “stiff” them if they don’t finish the work, or screw something up.

            And, as a general rule, NOBODY gives politicians unsecured loans, unless they mean for them to be donations disguised as loans. Everybody knows politicians spend every cent they can get or borrow, and then welsh on their campaign debts.

      3. And how many of those expenditures were on liquor?

        I’m betting at least 10%.

  22. who dis?

    1. “dis” is Reason’s favorite “libertarian”. A man who who now double-plus good status at Reason HQ because he doesn’t like the Bad Orange Man.

      1. ugh. I guess Edit buttons are for the bourgeois.

  23. How can he drop out when he never dropped in?
    Weld, Tune out, drop out, drop dead while your still not ahead.

  24. Pick me as the Republican candidate or I’m voting Democrat!

    Yeah, that’ll work.

  25. Most amusing. I’ll be voting for him today.

  26. Would it be too much for Hilary to at least mumble “It’s his turn”?

  27. Bill Weld is such a snake! ????

  28. I’ll bet that Mr. Trump is endorsing Bernie Sanders too. Mr. Trump can’t wait to mop the floor with him in the national debates.

  29. “does hold out hope that his minor electoral contribution might yet be enough to derail the 2020 Trump train”

    Wow, someone needs to tell Mr. Bill to step away from the crack pipe.

  30. Every time Bill Weld opens his mouth while running as a Libertarian yet endorsing Democrats and Democrat principles yet claiming to also somehow be a Republican and vouching for the viability of made up parties like “centrist Democrats”… I realize just how sane and viable of a candidate John McAfee is. Bill, can you please just fade away into history already?

  31. The worldwide political paradigm, i.e., initiation of force/fraud is a disaster to liberty NO MATTER WHO rules. Just as “benevolent dictator” is an oxymoron so is benevolent ruler, representative, politician. The “lessor” disaster is still a disaster. If you prefer to compromise and accept a disaster to avoid a worse disaster you have accepted a false alternative. Accept NEITHER disaster, no disaster at all. Reject the coercive paradigm COMPLETELY. Be consistent. Be principled. Be practical & moral. It’s only logical.


  32. I gave upon the Dems to vote for Ed Clark in 1980… Reading this interview with Welds almost makes me sorry I didn’t change my registration this morning to vote against him.

    Having him on the LIB ticket in ’16 was a BIG mistake.

    1. I think I dislike him more than any of the 2020 dems. I’m considering voting in the GOP primary and just writing in Funk Bill Weld

  33. Weld is SUCH a snake! Endorse Bloomberg?! Every Libertarian should be upset about this schmuck! First he promised to stay with the LP, then reiterated he planned to stay in the LP, then after about a month ditched the LP and returned to the GOP. Let’s not forget how he shunned LP candidates in 2016 in Alaska & New Hampshire!

  34. Why spend time on Weld? He has had no support at all up to this point, and New England is his “strength”. He basically doesn’t even exist.

  35. Bill Weld, the power addict.

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  37. Funny, Weld the phony libertarian thinks he matters.

  38. Who knew he was still in?

  39. May be he can get Romney as VP, “that’s the ticket”.

  40. Bill Weld, biggest opportunist, lying, power hungry sack of shit. Too bad “Reason” goes out of their way to give this hack press, he was never a libertarian, his own policies and his own words prove that. He should’ve just ran on the Demonrat ticket, he is a big government asshole through and through, and the Libertarian Party destroyed any credibility by backing the Johnson and this jerk.

  41. If Bill Weld is a Republican, then Bernie is a Libertarian. He is much more ideologically aligned with the Democrats. Weld is the only one going the way of the Whigs!

  42. Colorado is an open primary, and I think unpredictable.
    run 3

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