Narendra Modi

Indian Prime Minister's Shake Down of Private Wealth

Modi restores a command economy, ends liberalization.

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stunned his country earlier this month when, out of the blue, he declared 85 percent of the nation's currency notes null and

Indian Change
ironypoisoning via Foter.com / CC BY-SA

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India's two highest rupee notes — Rs. 500 ($7.50) and Rs. 1,000 ($15) — will no longer be legal tender, and will be replaced with redesigned Rs. 500 notes and new Rs. 2,000 bills. Indians can swap a relatively small number of old bills for new ones by the end of the year, but only at designated banks and with proof of ID. Anyone trying to swap large sums of cash that they can't legally account for will be subject to investigation and legal action. And all the unswapped currency will stay with the government, a massive transfer of wealth from private citizens to the state/

Modi's fans see this as an audacious move to smoke out untaxed "black money" from India's informal economy, which constitutes anywhere from 25 to 40 percent of the nation's GDP. But in reality, this demonetization scheme is the equivalent of killing the patient to cure a headache. And it marks an end to India's three-decade flirtation with market liberalization.

Modi was elected in a landslide on the slogan of "Minimum Government, Maximum Governance." He promised to end babu raj — the rule of corrupt, petty bureaucrats who torment ordinary citizens for bribes — and radically transform India's economy. But rather than tackling government corruption, he has declared war on private citizens holding black money in the name of making all Indians pay their fair share.

Tax scofflaw behavior is indeed a problem in India. But it is almost always a result of tax rates that are way higher than what people think their government is worth. The enlightened response would be to lower these rates and improve governance. Instead, Modi is taking his country down what Nobel-winning political economist F.A. Hayek called the road to serfdom, where every failed round of coercive government intervention simply becomes an excuse for even more draconian rounds — exactly what was happening in pre-liberalized India.

Last year, Modi went after black money stashed in Swiss banks, demanding that Indians with such accounts pay a 30 percent penalty and bring their money home or face a lengthy jail sentence. This scheme was a flop.

Next Modi offered Indians hoarding illegal assets amnesty from prosecution in exchange for paying a 45 percent penalty. But this flushed out only a small fraction of the expected haul, for the simple reason that the penalty was higher than the taxes people were trying to avoid.

So now Modi has ripped a dusty page from the playbook of communist dictatorships (Soviet Union, North Korea, Cuba), military juntas (Myanmar, Pakistan), various other kleptocratic banana republics, and India circa 1978 — all of whom tried demonetization and failed.

The theory with Modi's new scheme is that rich hoarders of illicit cash would simply forfeit their money rather than risk jail. Meanwhile, middle-class folks who work for legitimate businesses and poor laborers who have small cash savings would be free to legally swap old bills for new.

The reality is different. Yes, the rich have indeed gotten poorer. But the poor have been decimated. Call it trickle-down poverty.

About 600 million Indians don't have bank accounts, many because they are poor and uneducated. Roughly 300 million don't have official identification. It's not easy to swap their soon-to-be worthless cash, which is a catastrophe given that they live hand to mouth. It is heartbreaking to see these people lined up in long queues outside post offices and banks, missing days and days of work, pleading for funds from the very bureaucrats from whose clutches Modi had promised to release them.

Modi hatched his scheme in complete secrecy, without consulting his own economic advisers or the Parliament, lest rich hoarders catch wind and ditch their cash holdings for gold and other assets. Hence, he could not order enough new money printed in advance. This is a massive problem given that about 90 percent of India's economic transactions are in cash. People need to be able to get money from their banks to meet basic needs. But the government has imposed strict limits on how much of their own money people can withdraw from their own accounts.

Patients needing critical care are being turned away because they don't have new bills, and hospitals won't accept the old denominations. Old people are being forced to choose between food and medicine. Some farmers, living on the brink of financial catastrophe given their meager savings, have committed suicide as produce sales plummet. Industries dominated by small businesses that rely on private, off-the-grid financing from local money lenders and have no access to India's meager official credit institutions are getting wiped out.

Modi insists the trauma is temporary and worth it because more Indians will be forced into the formal economy that can be tracked and taxed to fund vital infrastructure and boost growth. But that assumes that India's bloated, corrupt, and inefficient government can spend other people's money better than they can. In truth, the government will waste the new funds while rich people, whose wealth has been confiscated, will cut back consumption and lay off their employees.

But the biggest tragedy of Modi's demonetization scheme is that because it does nothing to eliminate the underlying causes of black money — India's tax burden that includes hidden levies such as bribes to bureaucrats — won't disappear. People will simply park less of it in cash and more in harder-to-trace, non-cash assets such as gold and real estate, which already account for almost 60 percent of household savings. (Poor households have taken to buying jars of Tide to barter for goods and services, giving new meaning to the term money laundering.)

And you can be sure that Modi, who has already warned of further action before the end of the year, will go after gold and other assets next. He's already raised excise duties on gold and requires jewelers to check the tax identification card of anyone purchasing gold worth over $3,000, echoing India's notorious 1968 Gold Control Act that criminalized gold holdings by private citizens.

As for real estate, it's possible that Modi might try a demonetization equivalent for illicit property called the E-Property Pass Book scheme. Essentially, all property ownership would be declared invalid for one year, with property sales banned. During that time, owners would be required to re-register their property in an electronic passbook linked to the equivalent of India's Social Security numbers, by personally appearing before authorities and showing proof of ownership. Properties that are not re-registered would default to the government, just like unswapped black money holdings.

This is not boldness, but sheer conceit based on the misguided notion that people have to be accountable to the government, rather than vice versa. Over time, it will undermine the already low confidence of Indians in their institutions. If Modi could unilaterally and so suddenly re-engineer the currency used by 1.1 billion people, what will he do next? This is a recipe for capital flight and economic retrenchment.

The fear and uncertainty that Modi's move will breed will turn India's economic clock back to the dark times of pre-liberalized India — not usher in the good times (aache din) that Modi had promised.

This column originally appeared in The Week.

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  1. Shop with a cop

    http://abc6onyourside.com/news…..-cop-theft

  2. On 19 March 1943, Anne Frank described how _THAT_ police state did precisely the same thing to 500- and 1000-denomination notes. The only difference is that those notes were guilders and these are rupees.

  3. For those who don’t know, Anne Frank wrote a diary while in hiding from police in Amsterdam.

    On 19 March 1943, Anne Frank described in that diary how _THAT_ police state did precisely the same thing to 500- and 1000-denomination notes. The only difference is that those notes were guilders and these are rupees.

    1. Well, there you go. Not the same at all.

  4. India keeps snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

  5. A possibly relevant example: In 1933, FDR ordered Americans to sell gold to the US govt at $20.67 per ounce. A year later, the govt was selling gold at $34 per ounce.

    It’s fun to tell these things to progs and watch their faces turn purple.

    It bears repeating: the main goal of the ruling class is to preserve and expand the wealth and power of the ruling class, even if (and sometimes because) it makes everyone else worse off. In fact keeping everyone else poor is a great way of preventing competition for power.

    It is not an accident that in places like Cuba, North Korea, and Zimbabwe the ruling class lives like kings and everyone else barely survives.

  6. This bears uncanny resemblance to asset forfeiture. The only real difference is that it’s done to every citizen in an entire country simultaneously. Prove that you own your money, otherwise it is ours. The burden of proof is not on the govt., of course. What a nightmare.

    Will Indians get around this catastrophe with alternative currencies? Indians love gold far more than citizens of most countries, so it seems like there’s a fall-back currency in place if it is needed (though most of it is jewelry).

    1. I’m willing to bet that many European & American tourists won’t have to change their currency at Indian banks soon. Indian vendors & businesses are going to be very happy taking dollars, euros & pounds.

      1. I’m hoping to go there in the near future. I’ve received several invites. I hope the Indians are serious when they invite you. I guess I’ll find out.

    2. And I should clarify that, despite the fact that it’s mentioned in the article, from a number of Indians I’ve known, it’s not just something rich people have access to. As I understand it, even (or perhaps especially) poor people consider it a point of pride to own gold jewelry.

      1. They make some pretty cool jewelry, my wife has quite a few pieces of it she bought from an Indian friend.

  7. When channeled through Modi and markets, Dalmia makes for a spicy econ read.

    In truth, the government will waste the new funds while rich people, whose wealth has been confiscated, will cut back consumption and lay off their employees.

    Ain’t that the truth.

    1. NSFW warning. Again, I forget people have jobs.

    2. Crusty and the Real Girl!

    3. The singularity draweth nigh! This is so fucking great, the SJWs tears are going to be more delicious than the mega barrels of post-election proggie tears that I’m now hoarding.

    4. It is depressing when people confuse the terms “android” and “gynoid” with “cyborg”.

    5. Can sexbots spread STD’s?

      1. Of course! If you don’t clean them thoroughly.

        From what I hear.

        1. My sex bot will never be allowed to be promiscuous.

          Unless the price is right !

  8. Calling the Derpetologist: Sean Penn: Hollywood, Havana, and Me.

    This year, Sean Penn has been published The Daily Beast and Rolling Stone.

    1. It was hard to pick out the dumbest paragraph, but I think it’s this one:

      As we sat down that night, the practiced, brilliant, and philosophical Castro began the conversation, engaging my young son, Hopper. For a straight half hour, he was quizzed on the distance between the sun and the moon, and other bits of knowledge hard-won for the average American grade-school student, unlike his better-educated Cuban counterparts.

      Honorable mention:

      Cuba is a poor country, but it lives without road rage, and with healthcare. It lives without raging lawlessness and with literacy, a country that exports more doctors worldwide than any other.

      1. As a result they have a shortage of doctors in Cuba.

      2. “a country that exports more doctors worldwide than any other”

        I’m guessing that ‘exports’ in this context == ‘fled in a makeshift raft’.

      3. Cuba is a poor country, but it lives without road rage

        There are more vehicles in Fayetteville, Arkansas than the entire nation of Cuba, and this is a surprise?

        It lives without raging lawlessness …

        …inside the enclaves where are the stupid dickhead apologists for totalitarianism are held.

        Who knew? He really is Sam.

        1. North Korea lives without road rage too, and their traffic chicks are a lot hotter.

          1. I’m betting they’re a lot deader in the eyes too.

      4. a country that exports more doctors worldwide than any other

        As someone who hires doctors on a regular basis, I find this extremely difficult to believe. It sounds like another Castro BS statistic along the lines of “100% literacy”.

        In the US, anyway, the leading nationality for immigrant docs has to be India, far and away. I’d reckon that the next leaders would come from other subcontinent countries such as Pakistan, and from Arab/Middle East countries. I don’t think I’ve ever met a doctor from Cuba.

        Of course, this is my limited knowledge within our own country, and he did say “worldwide”. I’ll defer to Groovus, perhaps he sees Cuban docs around. But it’s hard to imagine that a country of only 11 million people exports more docs than other countries with as much as 100 times their population.

      5. For a straight half hour, he was quizzed on the distance between the sun and the moon, and other bits of knowledge hard-won for the average American grade-school student, unlike his better-educated Cuban counterparts.

        Where the hell is this mega-millionaire tard sending his kids to school?

        1. The answer is 1 AU on average, right?

  9. OT: If you are a data (presentation) geek, you’ll probably like this the Atlas of Economic Complexity.

    1. Note – please don’t take this as unreserved praise. It’s very interesting, but it’s still from Hahvud U. The displays of previous data are good. but their country growth projections are just asinine.

      1. Neato! Thanks for this.

  10. I expect that all of my Indian friends will one day go back to India and live in palaces paid for with dollars.

  11. I give Shikha a hard time for her delusional immigration views, but this is good stuff. Keep her away from immigration, pls.

    1. She’s lying low on that right now so that the Trumputin doesn’t deport her.

    2. You should change your handle to “Witch Doctor” because you injected her with the cure. Bravo! Well played sir!

  12. Why aren’t the people rioting?

    1. Indians are really not the rioting sort.

      1. So, you’re saying that the American Indian is less docile than the Asian Indian. Kinda like the American Bison vs the Water Buffalo.

        1. Something like this.

      2. Unless they can riot against Muslims.

    2. I thought they kept that in the parliament?

  13. File under: fuck it, I’m done

    FURIOUS Dutch MPs have demanded an immediate public inquiry after a government-backed watchdog said it was acceptable for Muslims to send gay people death threats.

    In a shocking move, the taxpayer-funded hotline said it would not pursue a criminal complaint over horrific messages from radical Islamists because the Koran says gay people can be killed.

    ….

    According to Dutch media advisors from the anti-discrimination bureau MiND said that, while homophobic abuse was usually a crime, it was justifiable if you were Muslim due to laws on freedom of religious expression.

    They argued that the Koran says it is acceptable to kill people for being homosexual, and so death threats towards gay people from Muslims could not be discriminatory.

    link

    1. Once again, Europe is doomed.

      1. …not with a bang but a whimper

    2. Meanwhile in Finland, politician fined for criticizing Islam

      The court found her guilty of slandering and insulting adherents of the Islamic faith. Her lawyers denied the charge and have appealed the court’s decision. During the trial, Kiemunki was asked why she did not make a distinction between Islam and radical Islam. She replied that she meant to refer to the spread of Islamic culture and religion, and that she ‘probably should have’ spoken of radicalised elements of the religion instead of the faith as a whole?.The Finns party politician added that her essay did not generalise about Muslims but pointed out that not all Muslims are terrorists.

      1. “They argued that the Koran says it is acceptable to kill people for being homosexual, and so death threats towards gay people from Muslims could not be discriminatory”

        That quote obviously refers to all of them. So, are those the radical ones, or not?

        Also, one must assume that if threats are ok, then actually carrying out the threats must be ok too, right?

        1. History shows one of the reasons why WW 1 and 2 took place was because of liberal appeasement and folly. We’re seeing right before our eyes the same liberal mindset that refused to accept the rise of people like Mussolini and Hitler play itself out with its bizarre deference to aspects of Islam that run contrary to our values. And much like the case in the early 20th century, the elites and celebrities/artists are not on the right side of history. Just my reading of things.

          1. Ummm what?

            1. The go-to example of appeasement, Neville Chamberlain was a Conservative, same as Churchill. Anyway it’s dubious that the UK could have stopped Hitler from taking the Sudetenland anyway, and even if they had it would have just started WW2 a year earlier.

            2. WW1 had nothing to do with appeasement, in fact quite the opposite, it was caused by the rigid alliance system causing multiple nations to go to war over the slightest provocation… a Serbian killing a Hungarian prince.

            3. WW2 was primarily caused in Europe by the ridiculous harshness of the Versailles Treaty.

            1. Yes, those were all factors (and yes about Chamberlain) but…while I admit my comment was clumsy (bad migraine) but my point should have been expressed as “the death of liberalism (i.e. classical liberalism) led to the conditions that laid the path to the Great Wars.

              When liberalism collapsed it paved the way to fascism and Nazi Socialism and basically Nietzsche’s nihilism.

              And yes, the elite/celebrity classes (who were mostly left-wing/progressive) did support or appease those ideologies.

              1. Another back drop, to add to yours, was Germany and Italy’s desire to capture their share of a ‘place in the sun’ they felt France and England enjoyed; which stretched back to African colonialism. Once Mussolini and Hitler came onto the scene (both countries felt aggrieved after WWI), there was ample evidence – if anyone cared to notice and there were people who did – to directly point to the fact both of them were up to no good. But…blah, blah – we know the rest is history.

      2. I like the “But not all!” counter-argument. It is just as reliable of an argument-stopper as “racist!”

        You can just keep shouting “but not all!” in the middle of any of these arguments and suddenly your opposition is not able to make a coherent point.

        “The Nazis were horrible anti-Semites…”

        “Not all”

        “What?”

        “Not all Nazis were anti-Semites. Some people just joined the party because they had to. Some were just bakers or mechanics or secretaries and didn’t even know about the anti-jewish stuff”.

        Ok, so not every, single Nazi party member was an anti-Semite. Some people were just along for the ride. But the Nazi party as a whole adopted the position that… wait… what was I trying to say?

        They would never try that argument with Nazis or the KKK or even “Illinois Nazis”. Because everyone hates Illinois Nazis.

        But man, do they love that when it comes to talking about Muslims. “Not all Muslims….” is not a proper rejoinder when discussing openly killing Christians, stoning unfaithful wives, oppressing gays, etc. If it is the official position of major religious sects or national governments, I think it is fair to use the name as shorthand in a discussion, without having to issue forth multiple qualifiers every time you mention them as a group.

        Saudi Arabia is brutal towards rape victims.

        Not all.

        What?

        Not all Saudis….

        Oh do piss off…

    3. You know, at this point its pretty obvious that its not the *Jews* that have the world-spanning global conspiracy to usher in the New World Order and take open control of all nations – its the Muslims.

      Its getting harder and harder to explain the level of deference European governments are giving to these guys.

      1. Plus, the *Bible* is pretty clear that homosexuality is an abomination – why come those guys don’t get the ‘religious freedom’ pass?

        1. Because Christianity teaches people to hate the sin but love the sinner. It doesn’t say “stone fags to death or chuck them off a building” like a certain religion of peace does.

        2. Because Christianity teaches people to hate the sin but love the sinner. It doesn’t say “stone fags to death or chuck them off a building” like a certain religion of peace does.

  14. Tax scofflaw behavior is indeed a problem in India.

    Yeah, the problem is all those pesky serfs not acquiescing to being robbed. The theft itself is fine, if done in moderation.

    This is what some libertarians actually think.

  15. Dalmia’s anti-Modi bias has been on display for a long time, and her sophistry in concealing evidence that doesn’t line up with her narrative is of course infamous on this site.

    Tax scofflaw behavior is indeed a problem in India. But it is almost always a result of tax rates that are way higher than what people think their government is worth.

    Is there anyplace in the modern world where people have thought they were getting a good deal on their taxes? (even without the hilariously added weasel phrase “almost always”) Rewarding tax evasion by lowering rates will only lead to more tax evasion. If the rates are indeed too high, there must be other arguments to that effect other than “people don’t want to pay taxes” which has been true always and everywhere.

    India’s two highest rupee notes ? Rs. 500 ($7.50) and Rs. 1,000 ($15) ? will no longer be legal tender, and will be replaced with redesigned Rs. 500 notes and new Rs. 2,000 bills. Indians can swap a relatively small number of old bills for new ones by the end of the year, but only at designated banks and with proof of ID. Anyone trying to swap large sums of cash that they can’t legally account for will be subject to investigation and legal action. And all the unswapped currency will stay with the government, a massive transfer of wealth from private citizens to the state

    Dalmia is rushing past an important point here: only the two highest denominations are affected by the demonetization.

    1. This would be like the US government demanding that $100 and $50 bills be exchanged for new ones. A very questionable policy that I and many here would oppose, but it would be incorrect to frame it as an invalidation of all cash. Of course acknowledging that fact would make it impossible for Dalmia to line up the next bit of sophistry:

      About 600 million Indians don’t have bank accounts, many because they are poor and uneducated. Roughly 300 million don’t have official identification. It’s not easy to swap their soon-to-be worthless cash, which is a catastrophe given that they live hand to mouth… [Modi] could not order enough new money printed in advance. This is a massive problem given that about 90 percent of India’s economic transactions are in cash. People need to be able to get money from their banks to meet basic needs.

      The analogous situation in the US would hardly threaten the ability of people to conduct cash transactions, as the vast majority of cash transactions are done with $20 or smaller bills. Now, maybe in India the higher denomination notes are used more often — I admit lack of knowledge on that point. But Dalmia doesn’t even address it, which for someone with her history makes me think she is trying to steal a rhetorical base here.

      1. She’s also engaging in circular logic in that quote where she begins with the statement that 600 million people don’t have bank accounts and concludes with saying that poor people need to be able to get money from their bank accounts to meet basic needs.

        Huh?

        1. Two completely separate statements. Out of a billion Indians, 600 million don’t have bank accounts. So they do everything in cash, including storing their savings. Half of those people have no form of identification. So they are not eligible for a cash swap. Any savings they are holding in the larger bills are thereby confiscated by the state. Not because they are wealthy and hiding from the tax man, but because they are poor and not well-versed in working within the system.

          Simultaneously:

          90% of transactions are conducted in cash. So cash is needed to make transactions. But the government wanted to spring this move on everyone so that people hording cash would be caught unawares. So they didn’t have enough cash printed to make the transition, resulting in rationing of cash by the banks. So now millions of people who do use banks are not able to get the cash they need to handle their normal transactions, whether that be paying bills, meeting payroll, whatever.

          So that’s a huge chunk of the population that is going to be righteously pissed off about the governments moves on currency.

          What ties all of that together is the bit about 90% of transactions being in cash. So if you are poor, you have to have cash for everything. And if you are middle class, you would still use cash for everything. Only a small slice of folks would be living an American-style electronic payment lifestyle.

      2. In my experience here in the US, poor people are much more likely to deal in cash transactions. And people who deal in cash transactions are much more likely to carry $50 and $100 bills.

        Convenience stores don’t have “No bills larger than $20” because of all of those filthy-rich Aston-Martin driving patrons. They have it because lots of their lower middle class and poorer customers use those bills routinely and they are simultaneously more susceptible to counterfeit. You don’t see “No large bills” at Nordstrom’s.

        I’ve probably only held $50 or $100 bills on a handful of occasions. Probably half of those have been when buying a vehicle from a private seller for cash.

        For people without bank accounts, holding large denominations is how they store and transport money. That cohort includes people like drug dealers, but it also includes illegals who do drywall work, people who clean houses for a living, guys on parole who work at the body shop, the lady who sells fruit at the local flea market…

        1. “… illegals who do drywall work, people who clean houses for a living, guys on parole who work at the body shop, the lady who sells fruit at the local flea market…”

          Horrible criminals all! We should all be doctors, lawyers, and bankers!

          I need some drywall done… You know any good doctors, lawyers, or bankers that can do me some good drywall? Maybe The Donald Trumpler can help me out…

      3. Now, maybe in India the higher denomination notes are used more often — I admit lack of knowledge on that point. But Dalmia doesn’t even address it, which for someone with her history makes me think she is trying to steal a rhetorical base here.

        The very first line mentions that the “recycled” notes represent 85% of currency notes in the country. Interpreting it as 85% of total value (which puts the actual number of notes), they’re still pretty damn common.

        More importantly the demonetisation isn’t an orderly one where people had the time to swap currencies in advance (which is usually what is done when fighting counterfeiting: announce in advance, and make sure the banks are equipped to spot incoming counterfeits, allowing for an orderly transition).

        This was rushed in an attempt to punish whoever has money they can’t legally account for. The knock-on effects are various and mostly harmful (even e-commerce sales took a hit, since a huge chunk of it is Cash-on-Delivery in India).

    2. Rewarding tax evasion by lowering rates will only lead to more tax evasion.

      But lowering rates doesn’t reward tax evasion. Tax evaders go from paying $0 to paying $0. People who do pay some taxes get a reduction proportional to the amount of taxes they’re paying.

      Which is an incentive to switch from evading taxes (with all the risks involved) to paying the now lower rate.

      The only way that it encourages evasion is in the time leading-up to the new rates, because people may time-shift their incomes to take advantage of the future rate (and unlike large companies with dedicated accountants, there’s less flexibility to do that without breaking the law).

  16. Even if what you say is true, how is it anyone here’s business?

    If you care so much about India and its politics, I dunno, maybe go back there and write columns in Indian publications for Indian readers who might be able to do something about it (though I imagine that Indian libertarians don’t vote, either)

    1. Fuck off, dipshit.

    2. I find these cautionary tales from around the world interesting and informative.

      And there are definitely those in this country who have an eye on enforcing a cashless society in order to capture the black market and ensure that the tax man has full access to everyone’s transactions. It is loved by the progressives and loathed by the right.

      So I’ll counter your intellectual isolationism and hyper-xenophobia with my own personal “thanks for an informative article. I enjoyed reading it.”

      Not as impactful and vitriolic as “GTFO”, but I’ll drop it here anyway, FWIW.

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  21. We will see something kinda-sorta similar here in the US. As soon as TPTB figure a way to coerce banks to set up accounts for “the unbanked” and encourage the “unbanked” to play the new game (perhaps with some genuine helicopter money deposited into the new accounts) the way will be clear to get rid of currency for anything more than gum and sodas. Not tomorrow, but not too far away either.

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