Obama's Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Will Cost $22 Billion
Yeah, that's bad for taxpayers.


President Obama's student loan debt forgiveness policies will add a whopping $21.8 billion to the national debt, according to figures in the latest budget proposal. And thanks to the magic of government accounting, the shortfall is automatic—Congress can't really do anything about it.
With students and graduates drowning in more than $1 trillion worth of loan debt, the president has made debt forgiveness one of his top education priorities, and plans to expand his generous repayment program. More and more borrowers will be able to enroll in plans that require them to pay only 10 percent of their income each month for 20 years (fewer, if they work for the government) before the remainder of their debt is forgiven.
POLITICO's Michael Grunwald, who first reported the story, calls the shortfall a "big quasi-bailout":
The White House budget office was unaware of any larger re-estimates since the current scoring rules for credit programs went into effect in 1992. As a January Politico Magazine feature on the government's unusual credit portfolio reported, the Federal Housing Administration has stuck more than $75 billion worth of similar re-estimates onto Uncle Sam's tab over the last two decades, most of them after the recent housing bust led to a cascade of FHA-backed mortgage defaults. But it's never had a one-year shortfall quite as drastic as this.
"Wow," marveled Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense. "Whether or not it's good policy to help borrowers with their payments, it's obviously costly for taxpayers."
Yeah, it's bad for taxpayers, although $22 billion is little more than a drop in the bucket at this point; the shortfall will only increase the deficit by 5 percent. And the White House is not without good reason to believe that a better financial year in the future could offset this year's shortfall entirely. Good and bad estimates of these things tend to balance out over time, according to POLITICO.
Still, it's a sneaky way to transfer the cost of college away from the people who actually reaped the benefit—the graduates—and onto the backs of the taxpayers.
It also vastly distorts the true cost of college by dispersing the bill among so many different entities, which in turn gives colleges a free hand to jack up the price. They can charge as much as they want for tuition: their customers don't pay, all Americans do.
More from Reason on student loans here.
Editor's Note: As of February 29, 2024, commenting privileges on reason.com posts are limited to Reason Plus subscribers. Past commenters are grandfathered in for a temporary period. Subscribe here to preserve your ability to comment. Your Reason Plus subscription also gives you an ad-free version of reason.com, along with full access to the digital edition and archives of Reason magazine. We request that comments be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment and ban commenters for any reason at any time. Comments may only be edited within 5 minutes of posting. Report abuses.
Please
to post comments
I knew it! I knew that as soon as I finished paying off my student loan something like this was going to happen!
I got my debt forgiven. All I had to do was give them the principal back with a bit extra for the trouble.
I don't want my debt forgiven, I just hate feeling like being responsible makes me a chump.
I worked so damn hard to pay mine off
This is a real gutshot
What ? This is outrageous !
Where is the social justice ?
A rich evil Doctor with 8 years of college and Med school and can handle this 10% with little or no pain.
What about the poor SJW with multiple degrees over a 8 year period who now makes 30k ?
And why should Government employees get a better deal than the private sector when all indicators already show they make more now than the private sector worker.
And the professors and administrators smile and plan their vacations.
Am I missing something? By my calculations, if I pay 10% of my income into my student loans for 20 years...I will have paid them off already anyways. Twice.
Alt-Text: "Obama's Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Will Cost *YOU* $22 Billion. It won't cost *US* one cent"
Ahem. "No, fuck you, cut spending."
Obama's Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Will Cost $22 Billion
In 2011 US colleges and universities had endowments totally 415 Billion dollars. I assume that figure is even larger today.
http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=73
This entire thing could and should be funded by a surtax on these endowments. The money from these loans went to the colleges. If students can't pay them back, it should be the colleges who pay for that not the rest of us.
Look, if the kids could get decent jobs, the debt load wouldn't be so crushing. So the obvious answer is to drastically slash the scope of government, reduce government spending to a small fraction of what it is today, get government out of hyper-regulation mode, and restore some semblance of a free market economy. Then many more opportunities would exist.
Whatever ills that would arise in a low-regulatory environment are clearly far less than what we see with government meddling.
We should do that anyway. But we are still stuck with all of these debt that is having real effects on the economy.
The student loan programs were nothing but subsidies to the academic class sold as "aid to needy students". It of course created a bubble and made the colleges rich. Now that this whole thing has blown up, the colleges should have to give some of that money back and pay to clean up the mess.
They're certainly culpable in this scam.
The debt should never have been made immune from discharge. Then no federal intervention or bailout would even be on the table. Yes, that would mean fewer (and smaller) loans, but it wouldn't be zero--banks deal with unsecured debt all the time.
Universities have gotten ridiculously bloated with the absurd tuition rates they've been charging. Go to any school of any size and see the lucre in action.
Yes, PL, the banks do bear a great deal of responsibility here as the racket it designed for them to be in a heads I win, tails you lose situation.
Don't forget it was the banks who pushed hard for the discharge exception on student loans in the 2005 "bankruptcy reform" legislation.
It is the institution of welfare, and the crony-socialist institutions that benefit and profit from it, that is the problem, not the Chicago welfare queens with the 8 children.
The welfare queens are just as guilty.
Kinda like, but not, taxing 529s to make community college FREE.
But you raise a good point. If the colleges are doing a good job of preparing student for the future they shouldn't mind loaning them the money to buy their product.
Kinda like Toyota Motor Credit et al.
Kinda like, but not, taxing 529s to make community college FREE.
But you raise a good point. If the colleges are doing a good job of preparing student for the future they shouldn't mind loaning them the money to buy their product.
Kinda like Toyota Motor Credit et al.
Those Ivory Towers are too big to fail, though!
Some of the graduates. Remember that they do overlap with taxpayers. There are people out there who got loans but still made choices that wouldn't get them shit in the way of forgiveness under this program.
You know, because they actually made that expensive education pay.
I, for one, love the fact I'm taxed at my income level and not my debt level. Thank god Obama wants to raise taxes on "wealthy" people like me.*
*I have it pretty good and am not complaining, and will eventually be fine, but I am certainly not "wealthy" by any definition. Not that it matters for tax policy or rhetoric.
That and the students are not the only ones or even the primary ones who reaped the benefit of those loans. The colleges also reaped the benefit.
If these degrees were not economic losers, the students would be able to pay the loans back and we wouldn't need to forgive them. So we have all of these students who benefited from college degrees at the price of loans they can't pay back. Meanwhile, we have all of these colleges who pocketed billions providing these economic loser degrees.
I don't understand why Reason is out to get these students, who don't have any money anyway, and are letting the colleges who got rich off of these loans off the hook.
Because, You don't hate the player; you hate the game?
Because the stupid fucktard special snowflakes go for the degrees knowing they are worth nothing in the workplace. But doing something that makes you feel good is more important than doing something that might improve your lot in life.
Related.
SF'd
Too bad. We have bankruptcy. People walk away from regular debt they ran up snorting coke, banging hookers or gambling every day in bankruptcy. Why can't people who ran up debt they can't pay back for education be able to do the same thing?
People pay interest on loans not just because of the return on investment and the time value of money but also because there is a risk of that money not being paid back. Sometimes debtors default. Life is like that. That is what is happening here. The question is who should pay for that. The banks are not because they have a guarantee from the federal government. The federal government shouldn't because they take tax dollars from people who had nothing to do with this. The people who should pay are the colleges, who lobbied to create this program and then used its existence as a way to raise their prices beyond all economic sanity. These debts are so large because the colleges created a system where they could raise their prices with impunity. No way should they be able to keep all that money.
"Why can't people who ran up debt they can't pay back for education be able to do the same thing?"
I'm going with the obvious answer that Universities are largely run and employ Democratic voters and donors.
And the GOP is the stupid party. Colleges are as you point out inhabited almost entirely by Democratic voters. If the Republicans were not the stupid party, they would be making the arguments I am making right now.
They would be making a real fairness argument and force the Democrats to explain why someone making $40,000 a year should have to pay taxes to forgive loans that helped give Harvard a $30 billion endowment. The Democrats would scream like stuck pigs.
Except this isn't about default. You want to make the debt dischargeable in bankrutptcy, cool, I'm 100% good with that. But instead the government is going to forgive a bunch of other people's debt just because.
Fair enough Nikki. I am not for forgiveness. These loans should be dischargable after say ten years. If after that time the person can't pay them back such that they qualify for bankruptcy, they should get it.
When you do that, however, the government is going to be left holding the bag for any defaulted loans. That money should come directly from the colleges and universities not the general revenue or from the other tax payers.
John, you had it right - why should student loans get special treatment relative to discharge?
Right with you on the colleges and universities - but let's not forget the banks.
Yeah, you are right. The banks have been collecting enormous fees and interest on these loans. In some cases, I bet these "defaulted" loans have produced a better rate of return than if the money had been lent short term and paid back. Yet, now the banks are crying at the possibility of having to eat the loans. Tough shit. Sometimes loans don't pay off. It is a cost of doing business and why you charge interest over and above the expected rate of return and the time cost of the money.
So yeah, lets tax the banks as well to pay for this.
So instead of fucking over federal taxpayers, you fuck over state taxpayers.
How Obama of you.
No Finger.
The banks and the colleges created a crony system that allowed them to raise the price of college way beyond what the market would have supported and made a fortune because of it. Now that the whole thing has gone tits up, why should they not be the ones to pay to clean up the mess?
How about not reinforcing shitty behavior by forgiving shitty behavior? If you're okay with loans being forgiven then why not just save a step and be for free college education?
How about not reinforcing shitty behavior by forgiving shitty behavior?
Because there are more interests than that. We have a bankruptcy process for good reasons. First, it is bad for the economy and society in general for people to never be able to get away from debts they can't pay and get a fresh start.
Second, where it is the case that people can't pay their debts, you want them to pay what debts they can in an orderly way that benefits all creditors equally. That is what bankruptcy does. It keeps debtors from screwing one creditor by paying others at their expense.
Once again, we let people walk away from debts incurred for all sorts of irresponsible behavior. There is no reason why we should single out and punish people who can't pay back education debts by denying them that opportunity.
These debts should be discharable in bankruptcy like any other debt and the cost of guaranteeing any debt that was defaulted on should be born by the universities.
John is hitting on something here.''
The colleges should have to finance their own products the same way Toyota Motor Creit will do. Then they will be forced to build a better product and ration SJWer Degrees and push for more STEM and vocational students.
Nissan Accepttance. Ford Motor Credit. all build good products and are willing to loan you their own money to buy them. If they built pure shit autos ( A SJW Degree) they would soon go broke from lack of payback.
and the beat goes on
John is hitting on something here.''
The colleges should have to finance their own products the same way Toyota Motor Creit will do. Then they will be forced to build a better product and ration SJWer Degrees and push for more STEM and vocational students.
Nissan Accepttance. Ford Motor Credit. all build good products and are willing to loan you their own money to buy them. If they built pure shit autos ( A SJW Degree) they would soon go broke from lack of payback.
and the beat goes on
Why can't people who ran up debt they can't pay back for education be able to do the same thing?
You, like Obama, want to change the terms of the contract after they were already agreed to.
But the terms of the contract were nothing but an agreement by the feds to allow the banks and colleges to rip off the tax payer. Fuck them. Why should they benefit from an agreement to rob the tax payer? Those agreements were horseshit from the beginning.
If anyone is being Obama here it is you. You are the one who thinks the cronies who robbed the taxpayers should be able to keep the money they stole. That is the Obama way.
My medical school has increased tuition on average 20% per year for the past 30 years. Barely keeping up with inflation given that there is so much more to learn now.....errr...
It is nothing but a scam.
Yes, that's true for regular loans. But for student loans, the people taking the loans never paid for their risk because the government guaranteed those loans. Since they didn't pay for the risk, it only seems fair that they shouldn't be able to get out of the loan either.
Keep in mind that pretty much only people attending expensive elite universities end up with any significant debt. Why should the working stiffs of this country subsidize a Brown University women's study major who now can't make ends meet?
The government will improve your lot in life!
Hey! I have an advanced degree in Women's Studies from a very expensive college and I deserve to make a living wage with it.. I shouldn't be struggling to pay off my student loans.
Hey, I'm a multi-national, trillion dollar bank, and I need to have my bets covered.
Don't worry. We libertarians honor and obey you. We've made certain you are taken care of. And, we will be sure to set up more ripoff online universities and high prices private schools so we can feed you more high interest loans and millions of new workers who start out life behind the eight ball.
Your bet is covered.
craiginmass|2.5.15 @ 8:35PM|#
"Don't worry. We libertarians honor and obey you."
Hey, lying piece of shit! Cite where anyone here has supported bank bailouts, like your fave lying bastard.
A well educated workforce is a more productive workforce so the government will cover that loss with a fresh income supply in no time flat. Also, we all really want everyone to be educated, deep down we know it's true. More education leads directly to less crime. Or do you believe that everyone but the 1% is supposed to just be happy with being poor? What is wrong with giving poor people a chance to better their lives?
That's simply not true. An English degree makes no difference in the income received by a Starbucks Barista.
They may be able to make better conversation and get bigger tips?
Big tits are more profitable for tips than a degree in English.
Government guarranteed loans for titty surgery !
Actually it does. People with college degrees earn far more than people without even in jobs that don't require a degree. For example, a college educated dishwasher earns, on average $34k/year vs. only $19k/year for a dishwasher with only a high school diploma.
Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that giving everybody college degrees raises everybody's income. In fact, raising everybody's education likely pretty much just wastes everybody's time without raising any income at all.
It's not the $22 Billion that will be so expensive. That's a drop in the bucket.
It's the one after that that will be so expensive.
It's the one billions after that that will be so expensive.
Fixed.
Ok. So they wipe the debts clean.
It'll just start over again. What then? Repeat the 'forgiveness' charity?
This sends all kinds of wrong signals as do corporate bail outs.
"This sends all kinds of wrong signals ..."
What are you talking about? Vote Democrat and will give you free shit.
It looks to me like the signaling is working as intended.
The moral hazard argument against student loan bailouts lost all force when the government gave trillions to the very same banks that the students owe money to.
The signal's already been sent.
Pssh, we paid off our federal loans first. My wife took those out first for her schooling and the interest rates were a whole percent higher than the highest private one she took out after. I just would have assumed they subsidized these so much that the rates would be remarkable, but it was completely the opposite.
See, but its the private loans that are predatory and unfair. People should pay more in interest over the life of the loan, so long as somebody didn't make a profit.
Obviously, federal loans are the better deal now that you and me are helping out to pay for them... *sigh* everything about this is crap.
That's just dumb. Your student loans were almost certainly at a lower interest rate than other loans, you should have paid off the others first. A good jew accountant can educate on this matter.
How about a lizard person accountant?
I have heard that Meskin accountants have made great progree as of late.
I'm very curious to know when these loans were taken, for what amount, and on what repayment terms, because I sure as hell in eight years of post-secondary education never found a private unsecured student loan with a lower interest rate than a federal Stafford loan.
pay only 10 percent of their income each month for 20 years (fewer, if they work for the government) before the remainder of their debt is forgiven.
Some pigs are more equal than others.
So why the hell should anybody save for college? Just run up the debt and Uncle Sam will forgive it.
"College? I have spell-check now, thank you. Also = Salon does all my intellectual 'heavy lifting'"
I sometimes think the reason we blew $50 billion trying to train the Afghans to wipe their own ass was so that we could just spend equal amounts on other useless efforts and claim it "wasn't really a lot of money"
No, you misread it and the headline is wrong. It's not "will cost," rather it's "has cost." These costs have already been incurred, last year. From the story:
Depending on whom you believe, either with all the changes done the estimates going forward are correct, or this will cost something like $250 billion over the next decade.
Well, I shouldn't say necessarily that you misread it, but you make it sound like this is a future cost. It's actually the Administration reporting how much extra was already lost.
I think it is a future cost. It's an estimate of how much less borrowers will repay over the life of their loans compared to how much they were expected to repay.
the shortfall will only increase the deficit by 5 percent.
What is this "only" bullshit?
Consider my taxes a loan that I will never pay and forgive the debt.
Hey you guys I have found the perfect job as a full time student, it has changed my life around! If you are self motivated and social media savvy then this is ideal for you. The sky is the limit, you get exactly how much work you put into to it.
Click on this link to get started and see for yourself????.
?????????????????????? http://www.netpay20.com
Bluto: Have a beer. It don't cost nothin'.
$22 Billion is TWO MONTHS of IRAQ/AFGHAN War.
So you tell me for a mere TWO MONTHS of unfunded war, we can forgive student loans, make good on the investor, and increase these student's consumership and buying power, I SAY LET's DO it !!!
I already paid $11 Billion /month for years. And all I got out of it is more angry arabs, hefty pensions for the military people, a richer military industrial complex, and a bunch of injured/killed Americans.
I'd rather the $22 Billion go to pay off Student Loans. AND STOP GIVING STUDENT LOANS out. Or, at least allow students to file Bankruptcy against these loans.
No, it's a trillion dollars of student loans in total.
And no one here is in favour of the unjustified foreign wars you mention. Try DemocraticUnderground.
Great, just make a time machine so we can undo the money already spent in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Hi alice,
I'm with you, but you should know that some of the commenters here get positively unpleasant when you start suggesting that the military-industrial complex should be dismantled. And besides, everyone knows that the true test of how true blue libertarian you are is an obsession with lowering the tax rates of rich job creatorz so back to dailykos for you, Leftist interloper.
american socialist|2.5.15 @ 4:22PM|#
"Hi alice,
I'm with you, but you should know that some of the commenters here get positively unpleasant when you start suggesting that the military-industrial complex should be dismantled."
Hi shitbag,
Yeah, there's at least two people here who fit your claims.
But that never stops lefty shitbags from generalizing, does it?
I'm with you.
Let's do it.
Now, if these "reasonable" Koch-heads want to first cut the military by 75% and THEN tell us we need to collect on these loans, I'll be slightly more open to it.
But, as we know, that's not going to happen.
We need to invest more in education and our own peaceful ways at home....as opposed to the war mongering of most every GOP (and today that means libertarian leaning) crazy.
craiginmass|2.5.15 @ 8:33PM|#
"Now, if these "reasonable" Koch-heads want to first cut the military by 75% and THEN tell us we need to collect on these loans, I'll be slightly more open to it."
Hey, asshole! Cite who wants to raise defense spending, you lying piece of shit!
It is a skill I suppose to put that many words together that mean absolutely nothing.
you're the champion of something, be proud.
You don't seriously believe that this is a one-time deal. And people who take out $50000 loans to get an ivy league education and can't find a job to pay it back are just going to sail into the next personal financial disaster and require bailout after bailout; don't try to sell this as some kind of benefit to society.
Hey: I have an idea:
How about no federal student loans, and no iraq wars?
Actually, that sounds like two reason articles already.
Wealth transfer - pure and simple - that is all that Obama has been about since he got into office. Steal as much from the rich, businesses and middle class and give it to "minorities" and unproductive members of society.
The ones that I blame the most are the stupid white people that voted for him when he told them that he was going to steal from them.
The thing about this situation is is that the banks and colleges ripped everyone off. They created a system of loans and grants that allowed them to raise tuition with total impunity and no worry about market correction. Even people who were responsible and have paid off or are paying off their loans are still victims here, because they paid more than they should have for their education thanks to this crony system.
College should never have gotten anywhere near as expensive as it has. I say that not out of some sense of bullshit fairness or justice. I say that because if left unmolested the market would never have allowed any industry to raise its prices the way colleges have. They only were able to do so because they and the banks got the government to set up the student loan system reliving them of the burdens of the market.
The whole thing was a giant rip off. The banks and the colleges ought now have to pay back all of the money they stole.
Hi Robby,
I have an interest in mathematical modeling of real world phenomenon so I look for relationships between independent variables and dependent variables-- you know, f(x)=ax like shit. So I'm still looking for evidence that the libertarian bugbear of government spending has a noticeable effect on college tuition. Since overall government spending on post-secondary schooling has remained flat and tuition costs have gone up I can't really plug the numbers in my spreadsheet without getting garbage out. Help.
If you were intellectually curious, you would be doing your own investigation. But, you know that already.
Wow. It sounds like you are having the same problems modeling that the pro AGW liars have.
garbage in = garbage out
Have you accounted for the difference between the total outstanding balance on the books vs. the actual cash basis of government outlay to explain your conundrum ?
american socialist|2.5.15 @ 4:38PM|#
"Hi Robby,
I have an interest in mathematical modeling of real world phenomenon so I look for relationships between independent variables and dependent variables"...
Hi, shitbag,
You're a lying turd.
The problem in this case is student loans:
The Problem: Student Loans' Crazy Growth
http://www.theatlantic.com/bus.....th/247411/
(Is the Atlantic left wing enough for you?)
amsoc:
Oh, then you should really like this:
How much will the cost of tuition and required fees at a four-year college or university be next year on average? And how about four years from now when today's freshmen may be graduating?
For us, those are really easy questions to answer, because we discovered that the average annual cost of both tuition and required fees at a four-year college or university has come to move in almost perfect lockstep with the total amount of money the U.S. government spends each year.
american socialist:
Can you cite your data? Because I'm seeing federal student lending going up and up since 2000 in sources like The Atlantic.
I mean, if they can forgive $22 billion... I know that's not a lot of money compared to a +$3 trillion budget, but $22 billion sends a lot of kids to college. That's not exactly keeping the feds out of student loans.
Here's another article: the conclusion is essentially that there isn't a firm conclusion on whether federal aid has caused higher tuition costs, but there are some good signs than it has.
But hey: why should I trust them? I'm sure you took out excel and plotted something on an x and a y-axis and proved to yourself that federal aid to students has nothing to do with it. I'll just go with you. What else have you figured out with stunning x-y graphs? Let me guess: every correlation is causation, and every inverse correlation tells you everything you need to know, right?
It seems to me that this entire student loan debt problem was created when the Government got involved in the process. If anything they should have given out grants, pass your classes & you owe nothing back (ok maybe some public service time), fail & you have to pay it back.
Why that sounds like a lot of money - maybe about 1 month of the war in Iraq cost.
Shame Shame. We should turn all citizens into debtors that are then forced to work for lower wages.
craiginmass|2.5.15 @ 8:31PM|#
"Why that sounds like a lot of money - maybe about 1 month of the war in Iraq cost."
Yeah, asshole, maybe you can get your fave lying bastard to quit making war.
Yes, the war that Obama promised to put an end to, just like he promised a strong recovery, and lots of other things. He has accomplished nothing other than paying off bankers, corporations, pharmaceuticals, and special interests.
Apparently, we have to have massive student loans, because we had an Iraq war.
Just drink a six pack and it all makes sense.
Add in a lobotomy with that six pack and then it might make sense. The order doesn't matter.
Start a new lucrative career. Our firm is looking for 10 people to represent our services?.
You will have business coming to you on a daily basis
Check Here Don't Miss Golden Chance
Open this link to get the opportunity , as like i did and i am feeling crazy.. it realy works,,,,,,,,,,
?????????????????????? http://www.netpay20.com
Since I started with my online business I earn $42 every 15 minutes. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don't check it out.
== ?w?w?w.M?o?n?e?y?k?i?n.c?o?m?
I have mixed feeling in my head now. I think families that take out student loan must think how they will pay it off. Maybe some students really need help with student debts and President wants to give help them. When my parents got student debt for me our life became more hardly. I started to work when I was in college. My budget was very tight and I couldn't meet expenses. I know that I could find fast payday loans here but I didn't want to get in debt, I wanted to change my life into the better and to become a frugal person. So, my room mate borrowed money for me and helped me to stay afloat. This situation scared me and I decided that I have to be savvy and spend money wisely to avoid more serious financial problems in life.
Well I agree it is a great strategy from Obama for all the students who took a loan from government managed companies , but what about the student who took its student loans from a sharks ? I'm a post graduate it student and when i need cash advance loan now I turn to such companies and ask them for financial help. So will this "forgiveness" plan work on a privately held lending institutes?
The whole debt forgiveness program is not as simple as this. There's many criteria to meet before any student loans can be forgiven. Although, maybe there should be some restrictions put in place so as students don't just enroll in universities with the intention of trying to have their debt forgiven rather sometimes use private scholarship programs like nation 21 giving to students, that would help to cut the cost . Maybe debt forgiveness should apply to graduates who are working in that field. The costs of university could also be fixed, so that schools can't rise costs based on the idea that all their students could have their student debt forgiven. However it will work in the future, right now, it is a necessity for graduates who would otherwise be repaying debt almost until they retire.
Hi, this link return 404 ...
Hi, this link return 404 ...