Immigration

Should Obama Bail on Immigration Action After Tuesday's Loss?

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No, I say in my column at The Week this morning.

RNC Chair Reince Priebus has been promising the GOP faithful that if his party takes the Senate, it will do everything

ImmigrationRally
Boss Tweed / Foter / CC BY

in its power — "defunding, going to court, injunction…you name it" — to stop Obama from declaring "executive amnesty" with the aim of forcing him to back down. And some liberal columnists such as Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler are worried (hoping?) he'll do just that.

But that'll be politically calamitous for Democrats in 2016. I note:

Many Latinos are disgusted by Obama's midterm switcheroo on executive action — he deferred action till after Nov. 4 for nakedly political reasons. But cynical as his decision may have been, it did make a certain amount of political sense. Of the 10 toss-ups that are in play next week, only one — Colorado — has a significant Latino presence. Deferring action will certainly depress their turnout next week (although by how much is debatable since Latinos don't show up in huge numbers for the midterms anyway). But forging ahead would have mobilized far more whites in the other nine states, making next week even more of a rout for Democrats, especially since the gap is no more than a few percentage points in most of these races.

But in the 2016 presidential election, this dynamic will fundamentally change.

Go here to read the whole thing.