Reason-Rupe Poll: California Props 30 and 32 Too Close to Call, Prop 38 Trailing


The latest Reason-Rupe poll interviewed 696 Californians, including 508 likely voters, between October 11-15th and asked about several of California's ballot initiatives.

On November 6th Californians will vote on Proposition 30, which increases taxes on higher-income Californians and the sales tax in order to raise $6 billion in revenue to allocate to K-12 education and higher education. Reason-Rupe finds this ballot measure is too close to call with 50 percent of likely voters in favor and 46 percent against, with a 5.1 percent margin of error. Nevertheless, this data reveals the race is tightening: although those in favor have remained fairly constant, there are an increasing number of those opposed. For instance, in mid September the Field Poll found 36 percent opposed the measure; a month later opposition has risen ten points to 46 percent.

Source: Ballotpedia and Reason-Rupe California Poll

Proposition 32 prohibits unions, corporations, and government contractors from donating to political candidates and from deducting money from workers' paychecks to use for political purposes. This ballot measure is also too close to call with 48 percent of likely voters intending to vote no and 45 percent voting yes.

Some view Prop 32 as a method to significantly curb the power of public employee unions in the state. Despite divided support for this measure, Reason-Rupe finds a majority of California voters think public sector unions have too much power when negotiating their contracts, 67 percent think they get better retirement benefits than similarly employed private sector workers, and three quarters think taxpayers should vote on increases to public employees' pensions and benefits.

Source: Ballotpedia and Reason-Rupe California Poll

Proposition 38 would also raise taxes for education and other programs, but would raise taxes on most Californians, rather than only upper-income households. The proposition is currently trailing 42 to 52 percent, and opposition may be increasing. Rising opposition may in part be explained by the presence of a competing tax ballot measure, Proposition 30.

Source: Ballotpedia and Reason-Rupe California Poll

Reason-Rupe found that 29 percent of likely voters plan to vote yes on both Prop 30 and Prop 38 and 33 percent plan to vote no on both. Eighteen percent plan to vote yes on Prop 30 but no on 38, and 12 percent plan to vote yes on Prop 38 and no on Prop 30. In other words, 59 percent support some kind of tax increase on some group of Californians. 

California telephone poll conducted October 11th-15th on both landline and cell phones, 696 adults, margin of error +/- 3.8%. The sample also includes 508 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here. Full poll results found here.