New Poll: Obama Leads Romney In Wisconsin, But Gary Johnson Could Impact the Race

While a majority of Wisconsin voters plan to vote for Republican Governor Scott Walker in the June 5th recall election, Wisconsinites plan to vote for President Barack Obama by a margin of 10 percent over Mitt Romney. (46 percent to 36 percent)

Among likely voters, Obama's margin over Romney shrinks to 44-41 percent. Consequently, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson's 5 percent of the vote could potentially impact the results of thisswing-state. Depending on whether Johnson takes more votes from Romney or Obama could swing which presidential candidate receives the state's electoral votes.

 

Gary Johnson voters in Wisconsin are difficult to categorize, as they agree with Mitt Romney supporters to end automatic union dues deductions, and think public employee unions have too much power and get better benefits than private sector workers. However, they are more like Obama supporters in that they are less comfortable limiting public unions' collective bargaining, and are slightly more likely to vote for Tom Barrett (38 to 33 percent). They self-identify as Independent, but tend to lean Republican.

Full poll results can be found here and cross tabs here.

ORC International conducted fieldwork for the poll, May 14th-18th 2012 of both mobile and landline phones, 708 Wisconsin adults, margin of error +/- 3.7%.  Likely Wisconsin voters (609, MOE +/-4%) include registered respondents who said they are absolutely certain to vote or very likely to vote in the June 5th recall election for governor.

Emily Ekins is the director of polling for Reason Foundation where she leads the Reason-Rupe public opinion research project, launched in 2011. Follow her on Twitter @emilyekins.