No One Knows What the Heck Will Happen in Michigan Tonight

Although Intratrade is favoring Mitt Romney 54 percent to be Michigan's primary winner today, the polls are divided. Dan Calabarese of the Michigan View reports :

Public Policy Polling had Romney up by 2 on Saturday, now it has Santorum up by 1. The (Steve) Mitchell poll did exactly the opposite.

So to summarize, everything is within the margin of error and no one has any idea who is going to win.

You could say it's a win for Santorum already, no matter how it comes out, because he wasn't even supposed to be close. But of course, polls don't mean anything. Only votes do, and none of those have been counted yet. We also don't know how much of Santorum's total will end up coming courtesy of his new best friend. It's kind of hard to make the case that you humiliated the front runner when you enlisted the help of the dark side to do it, but I'm sure he'll make the case anyway and his other new best (if very temporary) friends in the MSM will be only too glad to help him out.

Of course, as Calabarese notes, Michigan voters will need to take a nice long shower to wash all the crap off once this is all over. Michigan allows voting across party lines in the primary, something that has opened the door to Democratic mischief and introduced a bit of a wild card in tonight's result. For example, reports Calabarese, racist ad author Joe DiSano is doing robo-calls telling Democrats to vote for Rick Santorum because he would be an unelectable trainwreck of a nominee. And Rick Santorum, incidentally, is just fine with that.

Comments

[Francois]

Ron Paul will not win
/saved you trouble of watching

[Lib-Chat]

Regardless, will Reason be live-blogging it?

[yonemoto]

intratrade? Seriously, shikha?

[yonemoto]

I don't see how having an account on the thing isn't an employment requirement for reason staffers.

[Tman]

November 7th cannot get here fast enough.

Four more years of President Not My Fault will probably bring about the scorched earth reality that is needed for libertarian principles to become popular enough again to support an effective party, but it will be a bitter pill to swallow.

A serious inflation problem in the next couple years is coming, and we are nowhere near prepared for it.

Romney might bring some pro-market answers to the problems, but it may too late, especially if Obamacare isn't repealed.

METEOR OF DEATH 2012.

[BakedPenguin]

Inflation is already here, as anyone who has shopped for food can tell you. Of course, they don't count food in the CPI.

[Tman]

That's what is even worse. Food inflation will rise even faster once the CPI starts spiking even higher.

0% interest rates can't last forever, and Obama will just tell the Fed to print more money if Congress ever takes away the credit card.

Imagine four more years of this. The hangover will be EPIC.

[yonemoto]

I think we still have one round of deflation first.

http://www.mailtribune.com/app.....-1/NEWSMAP

[yonemoto]

To explain better: mass defaults on credit causes a contraction in the money supply that in the short term can seriously outpace the efforts of the government to print money. This will probably be triggered by high fuel prices, just as it did in 2008. We had deflation in 2008-2009, and I think we will have it again either this summer or next.

[Tman]

That makes a lot of sense, and to add to it most Americans haven't paid off their credit card bills that they ran up the last time gas hit $4 a gallon, and they won't be able to get increased credit lines for the next time.

This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.

[yonemoto]

well there's no reason to get all apocalyptic. I think in 50 years, most americans will be sharecroppers. It was a tough life, but my great-grandparents generation did it (plantation workers on the islands) and survived just fine.

[Ryan]

We humans are quite adaptable, psychologically if not physically. Although that has the unfortunate effect of making people numb to gradual changes, such as the kind in politics among some others.

[R C Dean]

I agree with yonemoto: there is a lot of deflating left to do, as a result of all the deleveraging that will happen.

I suspect, though, that the deleveraging/deflation will hit some parts of our economy (or some asset classes), while other parts of our economy experience price inflation. Example: the ongoing deflation of the housing market v. the price inflation of commodities, food, and fuel.

We're not done with this yet, nosirreebob.

[Robert]

These movements always hit the economy first in certain places, of course. The deflation occurs first in the transactions of those who were holding notes or partial moneys that go bad, and then to the people they buy from, and so on; similarly with the inflation. When you think about it, if these processes were magically instantly diffused over the whole economy, neither inflation nor deflation would matter a damn.

[yonemoto]

the good news is you can snatch up your money at the top of the inflationary bubble, go to cash, and buy up gold on the bottom, if you're crafty enough. If I had something I could put up as collateral (a house, e.g.) I would be tempted to take out a fixed interest loan and go to gold.

[R C Dean]

Debt is essentially pulling future demand into the present. The massive debt that we have run up over the last 40 - 50 years was pulling demand from the future. And the future is now. Demand is destroyed to the degree that debt is taken off the books, just as demand is created to the degree debt is put on the books.

Demand for what, though? The demand that is destroyed will be where the deflation is (less demand = lower prices). However, you can't destroy demand for consumable necessities beyond a certain minimum, so that is where inflation will be the worst.

Remember, these economic opinions are brought to you by a licensed attorney.

[yonemoto]

exactly. There is a great asimov novel called the "end of eternity" which is basically about trans-temporal commerce. It's basically what macroeconomists are trying to do, except 1) time travel isn't real and 2) compounding's a bitch.

[robc]

Sigh......

Inflation is Monetary.

But, yes, inflation is already here. But I dont need to look at a price of anything to know that.

[John]

Demand for gas is down, yet the prices is way up. That is fucking scary.

[Dead Rex]

Economics is scary to you?
You should check out epistemology some time.

[Joshua Corning]

Demand for gas is down, yet the prices is way up. That is fucking scary.

Not really. We have gotten pretty damn good at not consuming gas...and it is pretty easy to start consuming cheap natural gas instead.

The US has moved beyond soup lines....it is and has been for a long time a matter of stagnation vs growth.

Hell look at Japan. It really cannot get much worse then Japan economically...yet there is not massive starvation.

Maybe it is a matter of personal definition of "fucking scary".

I do not see a shitty economy for the next 50 years of my life as scary...just shitty.

[BakedPenguin]

Food & beverage commodities up 60% since 2005.

[robc]

M2 is up just over 30% in same time frame.

Say food is increasing in price at twice the rate of inflation.

[BakedPenguin]

Multiplier effect.

[Robert]

The money has gone into food first, or at least early.

[ChrisO]

The problem with the scorched earth approach is that we're more much likely to end up with the Argentine way of doing things than we are with libertopia. As bad as Obama is, it could be much worse.

[Pro Libertate]

I agree with this. There is absolutely no reason to think that a return to libertarianism will be the obvious solution to anyone if a disaster strikes. I think a good caution is the fact that Bush II is often cited as a deregulatory, capitalistic madman.

[califronian]

But wasn't that, he was practically the opposite. An actual, honest-to-god "deregulatory, capitalistic madman" would be fantasitc.

[Pro Libertate]

That's my point. And yes, it would be great for it to actually happen.

[MP]

A vote for Santorum is a vote for chaos. I'm almost tempted to trade in my Cthulhu bumper sticker for a Santorum one. And I do now regret my own primary vote.

Go Santorum go!

[?]

I love racist ads, and your "racist ad" link is a link to...nothing.

Kochtease.

[BakedPenguin]

Ad.

[BakedPenguin]

It's an ad from the "new best friend" link. I'm not sure why it's racist unless it's because it's critical of a black person.

[sarcasmic]

Liberals were all over Limbaugh when he launched "Operation Chaos".
Now they're doing the exact same thing.

[Pro Libertate]

Morality and ethics are all relative these days. If we held anyone accountable for anything, that might change.

[Episiarch]

Of course they are. Because they're exactly the same.

[Pro Libertate]

No, they say different things. Other than that, a difference that makes no difference is no difference.

[Rev. Blue Moon]

Epi, would you say that Obama is Lokai or Bele?

Ha ha, I just realized they're half-black, half-white.

[Geoff Nathan]

Joe DiSano's ad link is indeed broken, which is a pity, since
1) He's a friend of a friend (who's not, to my knowledge actually racist)
2) I actually wanted to see it.
I'm going to head out after work and vote for Paul, mostly as a futile gesture, since I can't vote for Johnson. We 'Libert***'s' are used to futile gestures. It's what we do.

[Geoff Nathan]

It's 'Calabrese' incidentally. Fortunately Google knew I was looking for him and kindly suggested the correct spelling.

[R C Dean]

Waddayamean "No one knows what will happen in Michigan tonight?"

I know. A statist sack of crap with a long history of lies and evasions, but delusions of adequacy if not omnipotence, will squeak out a narrow victory in a contest held by a private club.

Does it really matter what the winner's name is?

[tarran]

GET OUT OF MY HEAD!

[Auric Demonocles]

I was going to post "America will lose", but you beat me to it, and better said.

[fresno dan]

gee...the truth is soooo disappointing.
Well, there is free porn on the internet...

[Lord Humungus]

and you win the 'comment of the day' award

[Zeb]

Bonus points for pointing out that political parties are private clubs. People should be reminded of this fact often.

[fresno dan]

none of the above?

[Lord Humungus]

Last night, the phone was ringing off the hook with robocalls - mostly for Santorum. My cellmate, er co-worker, reported the same thing.

After work, I'll be stopping by the local church, er precinct, and voting for Mr. Paul.

[Pro Libertate]

Yo, fuck the robots.

[Lib-Chat]

You have a phone that "rings"?
On a "hook"?

[Lord Humungus]

yep, an old bomb-proof Western Electric with a rotary dial. (along with a portable phone)

[Lord Humungus]

http://www.oldphoneworks.com/i.....MYRJFB.JPG

[Zeb]

I've got some of those (including one old enough that it has to be hard wired, no plugs). Nice to have the actual bell to ring and a phone that works when the power goes out.

[Lord Humungus]

My wife just got sick of losing the wireless/portable phones. At least with this old beast, she always knows where it is. Plus, no battery charging issues.

It's, er, quaint.

[R C Dean]

My ringtones (on my tardphone):

(1) Ye olde rotary-dial style ringtone - calls from work.

(2) Darth Vader March - Mrs. Dean.

(3) The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly - various Dean family members.

(4) Ye olde modem signal - everything else.

[Pro Libertate]

I have an old-timey phone (inherited from my grandmother) that has no dial at all. Just an earpiece hanging from a hook attached to a large mouthpiece.

I wonder if I could it actually make it work?

[Gojira]

Oh yeah? Well I have an even older phone that's so old it's not even a phone, just a horse turd shaped like a telegraph clicker.

[Pro Libertate]

You win again, damn your hide!

[Lord Humungus]

Too bad I sold my smoke signal blankets. I could have told White Indian to fuck off gambol off.

[Robert]

Sure you can make it work, especially if you're into phreaking.

[libertarian viking]

Two votes for Paul this afternoon (me and the better half).

[A Serious Man]

Romney vs Santorum: Whoever wins, we lose.

[Francisco d Anconia]

Romney would suck for sure, but living under a Santorum regime would rival the 10th layer of hell. I truly can't think of anything worse.

[califronian]

Not necessarily because he'd get nothing done. Congress would not go along with most of his nuttery.

[Matrix]

executive order

[Francisco d Anconia]

Reps stand a fair shot of taking both houses and when it comes to nuttery, they aren't too far behind. Look at their ass-clownery under Bush!

[Old Mexican]

This is interesting:

PPP's final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

This is from last week:

Mitt Romney's taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP's newest Michigan poll. He's at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

Whatever you may think of Paul, it is clear that in the case of Michigan, he has the advantage of being the third in the Shooter Game and thus the one likely to survive.

[Raston Bot]

All I care about in November is passing the two pot ballots in Washington and Colorado.

[califronian]

"robo-calls telling Democrats to vote for Rick Santorum because he would be an unelectable trainwreck of a nominee"

This is 100% correct.

[Robert]

Seriously, you think enough voters to swing any state are going to care who the Republican nominee is come Nov.?

[R C Dean]

Depends how bad the economy is.

Like most Presidential re-election campaigns, this one is a referendum on (1) the economy and (2) the incumbent. In that order.

[alaamiah]

Santorum already, no matter how it comes out, because he wasn't even supposed to be close