South Carolina Primary

The Big Mo: Ron Paul Skyrockets in South Carolina While Rick Santorum Plummets

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Apparently the political science concept of "Big Mo," or the concept of big momentum pushing candidates who win early caucuses and primaries ahead in subsequent primary and caucus states' polls, applies to Ron Paul as well.

As the Hill reports, the American Research Group released its most recent poll of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina showing Ron Paul skyrocketing from 9 percent to 20 percent in today's latest poll.

Paul's previous 9 percent number comes from a poll conducted just a few days earlier, on Jan 4-5. However, after Jan 10th's New Hampshire primary and Ron Paul's strong 2nd place finish, this poll finds his support significantly raised to 20 percent. Romney placed first at 29 percent and Gingrich second at 25 percent.

Big Mo can also have the reversed effect for candidates underperforming. For instance, despite Rick Santorum's surprise near-win in Iowa, Santorum significantly underperformed in New Hampshire, coming in a distant fifth at 8 percent. Likely as a consequence, the ARG poll finds his numbers plummeting from 24 percent in the Jan 4-5 poll to merely 7 percent by Jan 11-12.

American Research Group Poll of Likely South Carolina GOP Primary Voters

 

Source: American Research Group poll of South Carolina likely GOP primary voters. Click here for full methodology.

Follow Emily Ekins on Twitter @emilyekins

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NEXT: The Big Mo: Ron Paul Skyrockets in South Carolina While Rick Santorum Plummets

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  1. Ron Paul’s story is compelling, does he owe anything to asshole Gingrich’s kamikaze mission to “git Mitt”?

    1. Sun Tzu may be advising Paul on this one. Your enemies are fighting… let them fight.

      1. Romney’s strategy is “don’t attack Paul, because if it comes down to me and Paul, the vast majority of the GOP commentators will choose me, which might not happen with a more traditional conservative movement candidate.”

        Paul’s strategy is simple: “If I’m the last not-Romney standing, I might get enough switchers from movement conservatives.” And of course he cares about having a forum and spreading the message.

    2. git Mitt, and capitalism be damned.

      1. Kill yourself if your are for RP and against capitalism.

        1. Go hang yourself on a cross.

    3. Willard seems to be holding strong in the polls, so maybe not. Maybe they realized that Santorum is a papist.

      1. There are a lot of catholics in coastal SC, so thats an advantage for Santorum. Plus evangelicals aren’t big on catholics but generally prefer them to mormons.

    4. The simplest explanation for the poll numbers is that RP (and the other RP) is stealing voters from Santorum, not Romney.

      1. The fact that Romney stays at more or less the same level and the other two drop significantly leads me to think that this is probably the correct interpretation.

        1. It will be interesting to see who Paul attacks. Attacking Gingrich (the far easier target) might get him a 2nd place finish. Attacking Romney, could elevate Gingrich to a close win. I’m not sure which is the better scenario for Paul.

          1. Romney vs. Paul is the best scenario for both of them. It’s good for Romney because Paul is the only candidate hated by more Republicans than he is, and it’s good for Paul because he looks like a loyal stalwart conservative compared to Mitt.

            1. I don’t know. Most Republicans I know that know more about Newt than “Contract With America” don’t like him very much either.

            2. Huntsman is doing his best to piss off Republicans over cultural issues that have little policy connection, though.

              But yeah, Romney and Paul both prefer it to come down to the two of them, when it comes down to two.

      2. The correct explanation, however, is that people have realized that Santorum is a shitbag.

        1. You mean a shit froth.

  2. Hadn’t we all agreed that time moves left to right?

    1. Well, there’s a natural conflict between that and “most relevant info should be closest together.”

      1. Could put the cand. names on the right!

        #pointless, sorry

        1. Yes and the numbers should be sorted ascending for Jan 4-5 instead of descending for Jan 11-12. If youre gonna fuck something up. Do it right.

  3. Rick Santorum didn’t want anything to do with any big mo anyway.

    1. Newt thought they were talking about “big ho” and got excited.

      1. I didn’t know Gangrene was into fat women.

        1. Put him in a pair of Timberlands and a flannel shirt and he is a fat woman.

          1. I’m pretty sure that’s sexist and homophobic at the same time — I just need to figure out how, but I’m pretty sure!

            1. Don’t worry about figuring it out. I can assure you that I am configured for maximum offensibility.

              1. Not good enough, dude. True libertarians are also RACIST. Homophobic, sexist, and RACIST. Yours only scored 2/3. You’re obviously unworthy of the Sacred Monocle!

                1. You left out ableist.

    2. brilliant

  4. How does Newt get 25% of any group, unless we’re talking smug, authoritarian assholes.

    1. How does Newt get 25% of any group, unless we’re talking smug, authoritarian assholes.

      We’re talking South Carolina, the home of Lindsey Graham.

      1. Not even New York deserves super-ultra-uncompromising blanket statements like that, dude, let alone South Carolina.

        Although I have to agree there — Lindsey Graham’s a fucking asshole. As if there weren’t enough authoritarian dipshits in Congress already.

        1. I see your Lindsey Graham and raise you a Chuck Schumer.

          Though I must say, Schumer is a devastatingly good propagandist. He always looks calm and in control and, dare I say, presidential on TV despite the drivel coming out of his mouth. We need a libertarian Chuck Schumer.

          (I could probably do it if none of you guys are interested)

          1. Yeah but then you would shoot someone who threw a snowball and we’d all hate you all over again.

            1. Snowball retaliation laws should be left to the states. Next question.

              1. Retaliate with snowball with a rock inside. Or a hard-packed iceball.

          2. Fun tidbit: SC is the only non-Blue Fortress that has design requirements on handguns. Wow.

        2. Lindsey Graham is a fucking asshole, but it tells you something about SC that SC Dem party chair Dick Harpootlian thought the best way to defeat Lindsey Graham was to spread the rumor that he’s gay, or as he put it “a little light in the loafers.”

      2. According to the poll’s official page, Newtie apparently has 40% support among evangelical Christians. So there you go.

  5. Fun Fact: “Big Mo” is Ron Paul’s nickname for his penis.

    1. If it’s not, it should be.

  6. I think the story here is that Paul’s actual vote totals are giving the lie to the claims of not having a chance and being unelectable. Those who are loathe to “throw away” their votes are more willing to back a potential winner.

  7. There is much awesomeness in this news.

    1. Wait, you actually LIKE Ron Paul?

      How many blacks have you chased into cross-burning ceremonies THIS week, Klansman???

  8. Alright, I just did it. RP beats Mittens in SC. Not win mind you but beats (regardless of place). This poll and the trending is strongly indiciative.
    I put a top shelf scotch on it.

    1. That would certainly be a game changer. I think heads would be exploding in DC.

    2. MY HEAD ASPLODE WITH DELIGHT

    3. GINGRICH DEFEATS ROMNEY; OTHERS INVOLVED

  9. After Googling Santorum, I cannot possibly look at, let alone hear the name without laughing. Im absolutely thrilled he has fell off the charts. Ron Paul 2012!

    1. I told my wife to do google him. She said she laughed for like two solid minutes. It’s so funny because it’s him. It’s like you really couldn’t come up with a more apt desciption.

      1. You didn’t google him before Iowa? You missed all the best jokes!

        “Santorum is coming in number 2!”

        “Romney squeezes out Santorum!”

        1. Yeah Anon, I knew about it. I just told my wife about it a couple days ago.

        2. Santorum Comes From Behind! Video at… oops! Can’t show that stuff on TV.

      2. Santorum is just another latent homosexual “family values” Republican who just hasn’t had his Larry Craig moment yet. Ordinarily, we expect guys like him to be caught with a young aide, or perhaps the pool boy. But I’m guessing Rick is more of a “rough trade” kind of guy.

        1. Yeah, that’s the consensus in the gay community. But until someone comes forward…

  10. woohoo! I would have to think if Perry, Santorum, and Huntsman finish bottom three they would all have to drop. I have belive to Newt will not be the nominee. have. to. believe.

    1. I think Perry will drop out after South Carolina. Huntsman, I’m not too sure about, since he should’ve already dropped out after disappointing in New Hampshire.

      1. Well he was in the top three in NH and it was already known that Mitt had it in the bag. But I agree, especially when you look at where Huntsmans support came from in NH. It was mainly people who were already satisfied with Obama. Not sure how that wins you GOP nomination. It takes a while for these guys egos to catch up with reality.

        1. Maybe Huntsman is holding out for something good in Florida or Nevada? Not really sure what other chance he has, since it doesn’t look like he’s gotten any big mo since Tuesday.

          1. Huntsman is running for a position in the Romney cabinet or maybe Romney’s VP if he is lucky.

            1. Maybe Secretary of State? Because there’s no way they would run a double Mormon ticket. I think Romney/Gingrich or Romney/Santorum would be more likely.

              1. If this primary season continues to be as fierce as it’s been so far, I don’t see Romney nominating any of the other candidates as VP. Too much bad blood.

                1. Thinks were nasty between Obama and Hillary, too. Huntsman with his experience as ambassador to China is an obvious choice for Secretary of State like Joe M says.

                  1. Also his history as a duplicitous sniveling weasel is a plus for SoS.

              2. Actually I just looked it up…the last time a GOP presidential nominee nominated a primary competitor for veep was in 1980.

                1988: Quayle
                1996: Kemp
                2000: Cheney
                2008: Palin

                were not running for prez. Oddly, the Dem nominee has picked a competitor as veep every one of the last three cycles (Liebermann, Edwards, Biden).

                1. Uh never mind on the last Dem part of the comment; Liebermann didn’t run in 2000. But it has been two cycles in a row.

                  1. Picking a competitor gains their followers, instead of having disgruntled party peeps sitting home in protest.

                    1. True, though I’m not sure if Biden had any followers besides the ground squirrels that ate the crumbs from his muffin as he rushed to catch the morning train.

                    2. Right, and who is the competitor who has followers none of the other candidates have or would ever get?

                    3. Who you talkin’ about?

      2. Huntsman has his dad bankrolling (we’re talking millions) his affiliated super PAC, so all Huntsy has to do is book a plane ticket to the next state and he could hang around. it’d be a waste of time, but maybe he’d get a gig on CNN or something out of it.

    2. If Newt is the nominee, Obama wins in a landslide, with Gary Johnson getting about 15%.

      1. Johnson hasn’t won the LP nomination yet. But yes, I’d be one of those 15%.

  11. But we were told the day after NH that Ron Paul’s popularity would not translate to South Carolina where you had lots of so-cons, ex-military and
    other red-blooded Americans who just want to kill commies and pray to Jesus.

    1. Yeah, why South Carolinians might vote for a Baptist military veteran who delivered thousands of (live!) babies is just a total fucking mystery.

      1. Because they’re racist, obviously.

    2. But we were told the day after NH that Ron Paul’s popularity would not translate to South Carolina where you had lots of so-cons, ex-military . . .

      I don’t understand the logic that assumes RP won’t do well among retired military. Considering he’s got more in campaign contributions from active-duty military than all the other candidates combined (Obama included), you’d think he’d do really well with the retirees. Of course, if the conventional wisdom had been right, RP would’ve taken fifth in Iowa and promptly dropped out, but here we are.

    3. Are there many Muslim commies?

  12. Oh, and here’s the new PPP poll for South Carolina: Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 15, Santorum 14.

    Paul has gained 6 points to move into 3rd place, while Santorum has dropped by 5 points.

    1. Damn you Joe M and your ninja’ing!

      1. Sorry! πŸ˜€

    2. Holy shit. From that same survey:

      Q23 Do you think that interracial marriage should be legal or illegal?

      Legal 66%
      Illegal 20%
      Not sure 14%

      1. I love the fact that 14% of people had to go “hmmm… I’ll have to think about this”. Because it’s a tough fucking question.

        1. I would put not sure. Not because of race, but because the law should have nothing to do with it. There for it should not be legal or illegal.

  13. PPP just released their newest polling data. Paul up 6% since NH (up to 15%), Romney dropped a point. This is fucking crazy. I can’t really believe it might happen.

    1. I can’t really believe it might happen.

      If you mean Ron Paul actually gets the nom, you’re right. It won’t happen. There is No. Way. the Republican Party nominates him. No matter well he does in the primaries. Not gonna happen. No way. He opposes what they most want: the gravy train and the power that, um, powers it.

      1. I really think Paul needed an outright win in Iowa to have a shot, so I’m not holding my breath. But it’s looking more and more likely that Paul could be the last not-Romney standing, which would lead to a very interesting discussion about what the GOP is going to stand for going forward.

      2. I was at Oberlin College in 2000. The big debate at the time was whether people should hold their noses and vote for Gore or be ideologically pure and vote for Nader. I was already a libertarian, so I thought the whole thing was ridiculous and strange.

        I was in the computer lab on election day and I noticed on the iMac desktop an open Word file. It was typed by a campus Nader organizer, and it was an hysterical diary entry about how Nader just might pull it off and win and everything will be great. I started to laugh out loud; I’d rarely seen anything so pathetic.

        I’m starting to worry that I’m turning into that dork for Nader.

      3. Yeah, at this point I think the biggest boon from Paul doing well is that the GOP party elites are either going to have to really cave on some of their favorite big-governmentisms or they’re going to have to (publicly) play dirty to prevent him from playing a part in the convention process, sacrificing their stature among the rank and file.

        Starting a revolt within the GOP against the cynical kingmakers would be a tremendous accomplishment for liberty, since we know we’re never going to win over the Dems.

    2. PPP just released their newest polling data. Paul up 6% since NH

      Up six percentage POINTS. (The actual percent growth would be 66%, I do believe.)

      1. Sorry, was too enthused to think. Joe M beat me to it anyway. I wish I could blame fat sausage fingers, but no, I don’t have those.

  14. Ron Paul is an anti-American, reckless PEACEMONGER!

  15. I’ve been watching ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox News Channel. Who’s Ron Paul?

    1. You know. That black transexual.

      1. The tall skinny one.

  16. My understanding is that at least one congressional district has to be won to get a delegate. Hopefully the Paul campaign, along with a statewide push for total votes, is focusing strongly on the districts it’s most likely to win so that it pulls out at least some delegates.

  17. This confirms the complete stupidity of the average voter. All the increase in Paul support is comming from people that previously favored Santorum. They are farther apart on the political spectrum than Reagan and Carter. How can you go from supporting the ultimate statist one day to the ultimate anti-statist the next day?

    1. Maybe they did a googlefight.

    2. It might not be playing that way. It could be a lot more complex. Ron Paul could be peeling off the other candidates equally, and Santorum voters, like rats jumping off a sinking ship, could be going to other “not-Romneys” and perhaps Romney himself.

      You definitely can’t look at it as all the Santorum rats are jumping on the Paul ship. Arrrggghhh!

  18. I think my solution is still the best:

    All other candidates drop out steadily. Paul and Romney remain. Romney gets hit by publicly operated bus. Paul takes the nomination and goes MOTHERFUCKERS GONNA PAY on the statists. Win.

    Y/N rate and constructive criticism thx!!!!!

  19. With Gingrich and Romney locked in a death struggle, this could get interesting.

    It’s like Gingrich is the Persian Empire and Romney is the Byzantine Empire, and all of a sudden Ron Paul is Mohammed riding out of the desert to slaughter them both.

    HA! I got to use a metaphor where Ron Paul is Mohammed. HA!

    1. [Progressive]

      Riding what out of the desert? His black homosexual slave? HA! Now THAT’S plausible!

      [/Progressive]

    2. A death struggle? Romney’s won two primaries and Gingrich hasn’t placed above fourth yet. This is like Ace Ventura vs. the Wachutu.

      1. Well, in SC they are 1-2, and Newt seems to be taking a “Two men enter, one man leave” approach to the whole thing. Except his version is turning into “Two men enter, no man leave”.

        When the #2 guy is willing to destroy himself just to hurt the #1 guy…#3 is actually kind of a good thing to be.

  20. Watch how Ron Paul Army deals with:
    Mr Willard Mittens the Romney Robot

  21. Questioning your bisexuaity?”datebi.com” is the home of you Bicurious and bisexuals.

    1. I told you, not here!

  22. Life is short,We always need passions!
    SeekCasual*COM, a place for people who wanna start a short-term relationship.And also for finding soul mates.Over 160000 honest members with real photos and detailed profiles.Sign up free and have a try!Nothing to lose!

  23. The Most sincere candidate in my opinion, I was fooled by the media thinking this guy was a nut. Then my nephew asked me to read more about him, not what was said about him on the tv. I was quick to disregard him, them one night I decided to look him up myself. and I have to say…

    Truly, if there was more guys like this in Washington we would be in a lot better shape. I learned Ron Paul has a long history of working for Freedom in our nation’s capitol. Paul has consistently worked to limit the size of the federal government. He has always worked to reduce taxes. He has repeatedly supported the cause of free markets. And he has never voted to support any measure not authorized by the Constitution of the United States of America.

    Unlike what I read who the Ron Paul Suporter is, Im not a “druggie” I own a business, I am believe in a better America, I AM a republican, and I’m voting for this guy.

    Here’s just one good video I saw….If you want to learn about him other than what you watch on CNN and other bias news stations.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…..re=related

    Some important facts about Ron Paul’s record:

    * He has never voted to raise taxes.
    * He has never voted for an unbalanced budget.
    * He has never voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership.
    * He has never voted to raise congressional pay.
    * He has never taken a government-paid junket.
    * He has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch.
    * He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program.
    * He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. treasury every year.

    1. Nice post, but you’re preaching to the choir.

      Try Huff Po

  24. Wow, look at Huntsman’s surge after NH, the guy DOUBLED his support! Jon Huntsman is surging!

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