Californians Respond to Discipline: Brown/Whitman Dead Heat, Fiorina Slipping

Call me nostradumbass.* Two days after I pronounced Carly Fiorina the more credible of the big-ticket Republican candidates in California -- and one day after former Meg Whitman odd jobs gal Nicky Diaz revealed Whitman's involvement in the rendition, waterboarding and summary executions of illegal immigrants -- Whitman has closed the gap in her race against former governor Jerry Brown, while Fiorina is trailing badly against Sen. Barbara Boxer.

That's the result of a new survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, which interviewed 2,004 adult residents in English and Spanish, via landline and cell. PPIC's results:

In the governor's race, Democrat Jerry Brown (37%) and Republican Meg Whitman (38%) are locked in a virtual tie among likely voters with 18 percent undecided. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer (42%) leads Republican Carly Fiorina (35%) by 7 points, with 17 percent undecided.

Full survey report [pdf]. Nine out of every ten Californians say the state is still in a recession, 62 percent say jobs and the economy is the most important issue facing the Golden State. Four in 10 say they are "very concerned or somewhat concerned" about a personal or family-member job loss. Only 45 percent are satisfied with the choices in the governor's race.

Mixed news on ballot initiatives. Only Proposition 19, the legalization of cannabis or "Indian Boy" as it's called on the the street, has a majority rating. But Prop 25, which would remove the two-thirds vote requirement to pass a budget, has way more support (at 48 percent pro, with 35 percent con) than it deserves.

* Like every hack who writes up poll results, I'm telescoping for dramatic effect. The survey was conducted from September 19–26, 2010, before the most recent debates, the Nicky Diaz nonshell, and my own rush to judgment on Whitman.

Comments

[P Brooks]

Fiorina is trailing badly against Sen. Barbara Boxer.

All ballots should have a The Devil You Know option.

[Mae West]

When faced with a choice of two evils, I pick the one I've never tried before.

[John]

Tim,

I am not sure seven points down with 17 undecided is "trailing badly". Boxer is still under 50%, which for an incumbent a month out from the election is pretty bad. Past history shows that most late undecideds break for the challenger in the days proceeding the election. And it shows that incumbents who are still polling below 50% before an election, usually lose in a two way race even if the polls show them ahead of the challenger.

Yeah, it is better to be ahead than behind. But any incumbent sitting at 42% a month before the election is hardly sitting comfortably.

[R C Dean]

Past history shows that most late undecideds break for the challenger in the days proceeding the election.

I remember hearing some pundits making the opposite claim. Any actual, you know, data on this?

[Syd Henderson]

Past history shows that most late undecideds break for the challenger in the days proceeding the election.

This is how John Kerry got to be president.

[Paul]

Past history shows that most late undecideds break for the challenger in the days proceeding the election

So things don't look good for the challenger, then?

[Old Mexican]

Nine out of every ten Californians say the state is still in a recession, 62 percent say jobs and the economy is the most important issue facing the Golden State.

Well, those Californians don't really mean it:

"In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer (42%) leads Republican Carly Fiorina (35%) by 7 points, with 17 percent undecided."

[East Bay Jay]

Low information voters i.e. short bus patrons?

[Fist of Etiquette]

California will get what it deserves.

(Unless it doesn't actually slide into the Pacific, in which case it falls short of what it deserves.)

[The Thinking Man's NASCAR]

You know, some of us have to live here, for the time being.

I really hope we elect Whitman, who though she won't actually be good, is hopefully someone who can hold everything together with duct tape until I can haul patukhus out of here. Then I'll be able to make a bag of popcorn and enjoy watching the public sector unions and interest groups eat each other alive from a safe distance.

I do agree that it should be a pretty good show when the whole state tips over and sinks under water. It'll be like The Poseidon Adventure!

[Fist of Etiquette]

I do agree that it should be a pretty good show when the whole state tips over and sinks under water.

Roland Emmerich is onboard with that. And I suspect Nevada and Arizona wouldn't mind the beachfront property, either.

[Douglas Fletcher]

Yeah, but we don't want the refugees from California.

[East Bay Jay]

Do you have room on your couch and Gin in the pantry?

[Douglas Fletcher]

I'm not in Vegas.

[cynical]

Too late, it's already metastasizing.

[Max]

Maybe even the tea party fury won't help republican sluts. Full points for admitting that you're a hack.

[Zero]

Okay I admit, you're a hack, full points for you. Come on that was too easy.

[Rob McMillin]

Californians Respond to Discipline

But will they respond to bondage?

[troy]

Yeah, maybe California is The Gimp among all the States.

[jasno]

Is California the Don Draper of states, divorced from reality, living alone in an apartment of denial, paying expensive whores to slap it in the face?

Sorry - I'm only up to season 4.

[prolefeed]

The Boxer poll numbers have been seesawing between a statistical dead heat and a slight lead over Fiorina.

Turnout will decide this race, and polls don't always capture how likely people are to actually show up and vote for one of two repugnant human beings.

[John]

17% are undecided. Boxer has been in office for what 18 years? If she hasn't won over that 17% by now, I doubt she will.

[prolefeed]

Some of those 17% were infants when Boxer first took office.

[East Bay Jay]

That's no way to talk about Democrats. Toddlers, okay, but not infants.

[MP]

I really don't care about Prop 25. In fact, I hope it passes. Seeing CA's economy in the crapper brings me joy.

But Prop 19 is truly a national issue, since its passage would be a major milestone in the road to ending the WOD.

[John]

Pretty much Prop 25 is the only important race out there. It is not like the governor is going to be able to do much considering the crazies they elect to the state legislature. And whether the Republicans get one extra vote in the Senate or not is not that important. Boxer is probably the dumbest human being ever to hold major office in this country. So it would be good to see her go down. But it is not like Fiorina is going to be another Daniel Moynahan either.

But proposition 19 would be a literal earthquake in the drug war.

[prolefeed]

But proposition 19 would be a literal earthquake in the drug war.

"Literal" does not mean what you think it does. Try "virtual". Or drop the adjective altogether.

[John]

Yes Obi Wan the Grammarian.

[Obi Wan the Grammarian]

This is not the adjective you're looking for .

[Yoda-san]

"Do not assume anything, John-Wan. Clear, your mind must be if you are to discover the real adjective behind the noun."

[prolefeed]

It is not like the governor is going to be able to do much considering the crazies they elect to the state legislature.

As someone who lives in a state with 90% Democratic legislators, I can attest that some vetoes can kill bad legislation. Not always, a lot of bad stuff can get veto-overriden, but still ...

Divided government is a good thing.

[John]

Depends on the state. Some governors have more power than others. I am not really sure how much power the California governor has.

[Yoda-san]

In Hawaii, the RINO governor Lingle first allowed the tax to build the fucking multi-billion rail system / union jobs program to go through without her signature, but now is using bureaucracy (holding up approving a EPA clearance necessary to start construction) to stall the rail until her term expires in January.

Her likely successor, That Bastard Abercrombie, will start the shovels flying from day 1.

So, yes, even a wimpy RINO can do some obstructive good compared to a D who is thinks like the legislative majority.

[prolefeed]

The above was me -- though Yoda-san is a decent handle.

[anon]

Arnold has TWICE vetoed a single-payer health plan for california that made private health insurance illegal. For that reason alone I call him a good governor

[jasno]

But what will it say to the world if we pass 19 and immediately fall into the crapper? Will the drug warriors get to say "I told you so!"?

[P Brooks]

Whitman has closed the gap in her race against former governor Jerry Brown

Money = Mindcontrol, duh.

The poor feckless rubes are powerless to resist Whitman's the Sixty Foot Tall MashedPotatoWoman's corporate dollar tsunami.

[feather-weight granite]

Where are the Presidential Sixty-Foot-Tall, Too-Big-To-Fall, Styrofoam Greek Columns!?

[early and often]

My informal poll. People agree: Meg may be a twit, but how can a thoughtful person vote for Jerry, the man who built the parasitic California bureaucracy. And Carly may be a twit, but, like Meg, knows what the private sector is. Jerry and the wild-eyed nutcake Barbara are destructive and exhibit a great deal of hostility to the idea of a free economy and a free society.

[Tman]

I wonder how much Whitman's chances have improved due to the fact that people in California are starting to say:

"Oh, you mean THAT Jerry Brown? Aww helllll no."

[Apologetic California]

I think people confuse him with Jerry's Famous Deli. Though that should still rate a AAWWWW hellll no.

[Old Mexican]

But Prop 25, which would remove the two-thirds vote requirement to pass a budget, has way more support (at 48 percent pro, with 35 percent con) than it deserves.

Don't worry about that one - worry about Calfornians having to escape in balloons in the middle of the night after Sacramento decides to close all checkpoints, to stem the stampede out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaMwJfN2swI

[mj86]

"But Prop 25, which would remove the two-thirds vote requirement to pass a budget, has way more support (at 48 percent pro, with 35 percent con) than it deserves."

Jesus, I can't imagine what those idiots will do once a majority can pass a budget. And you know the feds will eventually bail them out (again).

[Rob McMillin]

You mean, "once a simple majority can pass a budget".

[Syd Henderson]

Because requiring two-thirds has worked out so well for California...

[DRM]

And you know the feds will eventually bail them out

What's the incentive for a Republican House to bail out California?

I mean, it's not like Obama would sign a bailout that would condition the money on California abolishing Presidential elections in favor of having the Republican National Committee directly select California's electors.

[mj86]

Congress can't just bail out Cali, they have to divide the funds between the states. So when they bail out Cali the Rs have a chance to direct payments within their home states. If there's one confidence I have in Congress people it's their ability to direct funds where it helps their reelection chances.

There's always an R Maine Senator or Blue State Congressman willing to say yes to more spending.

[Cali Curtain]

An Eastern and Northern California border fence with razor wire on top, patrolled by SEIU thugs with pit bulls, should keep most people inside. No ground escape. You will have to sign over your wealth to the State of California if you want to leave.

[henry]

As a non-Californian, except for the weed vote, who gives a fuck? All four of those candidates suck ass. Granted some suck more (Boxer), some less (hard to decide which GOPer gets the "sucks least" crown), but when it comes down to it, fuck 'em all.

If Jerry Brown's election would prompt a DK's reunion, I'd vote for him on that basis alone. If they could tell Anita Bryant to "ram it up your cunt" almost 30 years ago, I gotta hear their Sarah Palin song.

[mj86]

"As a non-Californian, except for the weed vote, who gives a fuck?"

Because eventually the federal government is going to bail them out. And then they're going to raise our taxes to pay for it.

[henry]

Bail them out with what, more freshly printed Monopoly money? Good, go ahead. The sooner they do, the sooner the whole country gets the douche it needs.

No one here gets out alive.

[zoltan]

I would just use the term shower. Douching causes much higher rates of bacterial infections due to its removal of healthy flora in the vagina.

[P Brooks]

An Eastern and Northern California border fence with razor wire on top, patrolled by SEIU thugs with pit bulls, should keep most people inside.

I, for one, would appreciate that.

[Fatty Bolger]

I think the press conference with Nicky Diaz probably helped Whitman with Californians.

"Illegal nanny? Hey, she is one of us!"

[Paul]

Tremors of my prediction coming true?