Poll maven Nate Silver believes "it has become increasingly unclear whether opposition to gay marriage still outweighs support for it." Charting rising support against falling opposition, he sees the trend toward acceptance accelerating in recent years. He also questions the notion that court rulings striking down bans on gay marriage (such as last week's decision by U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker) ultimately hurt the cause by arousing popular resentment:
While there is not necessarily zero risk of backlash resulting from things like court decisions—support for gay marriage slid backward by a couple of points, albeit temporarily, after a Massachusetts' court's ruling in 2003 that same-sex marriage was required by that state's constitution—it seems that, in general, "having the debate" is helpful to the gay marriage cause, probably because the secular justifications against it are generally quite weak.
[via Outside the Beltway]