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The Good News Is the Bad News Isn't Over

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The Washington Examiner comes through with that rarest of finds—an unsigned editorial from the left-side stack that adds something to the news:

First, the drop to 9.7 percent unemployment does not reflect the creation of new jobs that normally accompanies an economic recovery. The number of new jobs is actually declining. Total nonfarm payroll employment, for example, dipped by an additional 20,000 positions after a December decline of 150,000 positions. The unemployment rate the day Obama took office last year stood at 7.6 percent and 134.6 million people had jobs. When he signed the economic stimulus, Obama promised the bill would bolster the economy sufficiently to keep unemployment below 8.0 percent. But the unemployment rate has exceeded 8.0 percent since last fall, and total employment stands at only 129.5 million. The stimulus has been a bust.

Second, anybody who thinks the job situation is going to improve dramatically in coming months is not paying attention to what's going on behind the unemployment rate. The Hudson Institute's Diana Furchtgott-Roth notes that "This is a better employment report than last month's report, yet the economy is still not creating jobs. The percent of the unemployed who are out of work for 27 weeks or more exceeded 41%, an all-time high. This is unacceptable and shows that Congress and the President need to focus on job creation, rather than on expanding government, because the tax increases and borrowing used to expand government reduce overall job creation and create uncertainty."

Come shopping for FOR LEASE signs.

While reactions like this are important for demystifying government claims about macroeconomics, there is something disingenuous in slagging the executive and legislative branches for poor job creation when you know (as the editorialist surely does) that there is nothing the government can do to create jobs. This is not to say cutting taxes and spending would be unhelpful—or that the Obama Adminstration doesn't deserve opprobrium for wasting four-fifths of a trillion dollars. But you're setting yourself up for a fall if you claim public policy alone will get people borrowing again in the near term.

To speak honestly about the economy you need to acknowledge that what the political world views as a bug—the radical dehydration of credit on both the supply and demand sides—is a feature, a necessary and long-overdue process that is probably closer to the beginning than to the end.

Through that lens, the economic picture looks quite a bit better. The home "ownership" rate, while still historically high at more than 67 percent, has dropped back [pdf] to its 2000 level. Consumer credit continues to decrease rapidly. The process of getting supposedly prime borrowers out of their oversized loans is well under way. Everywhere except in DC, where we see trillion-dollar deficits to the horizon, Americans are being compelled to live within their means.

If you've been to a shopping mall lately, you know there ain't nobody a-shoppin', and for the reasons listed above it is unlikely that green shoots like these from the Institute for Supply Management will thrive in a drought of consumer demand. But it's never pretty to dry out after a decades-long binge. I'm glad nobody believes the Democrats have created any jobs. I'd be happier if both ruling parties acknowledged that job creation is not part of their purview and is not within their power.

NEXT: Does the President's Budget Matter?

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  1. wasting four-fifths of a billion

    Think you meant “trillion”.

    Or perhaps, “gagillion”

    1. A gagillion? That’s a lot, huh?

  2. I call deceptive titling.

    Thought this was going to be about the 69″ of Snowmageddon coming to the DC area tomorrow.

    The good news, another play in the truck day!

  3. If the feds would just stop actively dissuading businesses from creating jobs, it would be a good start.

    1. A real good start. Too bad we have Carter instead of Reagan as team America Captain right now.

      1. FYI, if we’re continuing the Reagan anaology, we have about 18 months to wait before the economy really starts to pick up.

        1. Reagan followed Carter, not Bush. I say 18 hours.

          1. Let me show my work:

            Bush = 1/365th the awful of Obama in National Economics.

            If Reagan’2 followed Bush 1/365th of 18 mos . . . ERROR!

            18 days.

            There are merits for showing one’s work.

              1. Fuck you Carter licking Obamadroid.

                1. “Carter licking Obamadroid”

                  +1

                2. Fuck Carter and Reagan

                3. Mmm … tastes like peanut butter …

              2. Fucking dead things is sick.

  4. In the time of Reagan, people could at least pretend they were getting interest on their savings.

    1. We would have flying cars by now if he were still around.

    2. And if they bought the right long term savings instruments after a few years they really were earning interest.

    3. In the time of Reagan, we could smoke within 20′ of an entrance. In the time of Reagan, liberals cared about the first amendment. In the time of Reagan, it was ok to criticize the president. In the time of Reagan, self-declared liberals used to say things like “We’re not the world’s cop” and “if you censor obscene speech, you might end up censoring political speech”.

      What the fuck happened?

  5. I don’t think the Fed Gov can create jobs, but they sure as hell can destroy jobs or stop new jobs from ever coming into being. Start bumping up the corporate tax rate and see what happens.

    1. I believe (SAY IT BROTHA!) both P Brooks and I are advocating that too.

      I will add, if Ford were in charge now we would at least have flying motorcycles.

      1. Yeah, but all the Jews would be gone if Ford were in charge…

  6. “…there is something disingenuous in slagging the executive and legislative branches for poor job creation when you know (as the editorialist surely does) that there is nothing the government can do to create jobs.”

    Cavanaugh knows more about editorialists than I do, but when I read something like that, I’m always tempted to assume they’re semi-urging the President to do something.

    Like they’ve forgotten everything we knew before. We had a “jobless recovery” before, although many seem to have forgotten. It was in the early part of that god awful jobless decade, the ’90s.

    Anybody else remember “Falling Down”? What that was about? Why it resonated? I don’t think many people associate the rest of the ’90s with intractable unemployemnt, but by the time that film hit the theaters, reinvestment was already creating entire new industries.

    “But you’re setting yourself up for a fall if you claim public policy alone will get people borrowing again in the near term.”

    Perhaps, but unleashing a wave of terror on Wall Street bankers about their bonuses is sure to get them lending again–NOT! Public policy isn’t about creating jobs right now. It’s about winning/surviving the elections in November.

    “To speak honestly about the economy you need to acknowledge that what the political world views as a bug — the radical dehydration of credit on both the supply and demand sides — is a feature, a necessary and long-overdue process that is probably closer to the beginning than to the end.”

    Wow. Honesty.

    Misinvestment has to be reinvested properly, and the government got right in the way of that. And the regulatory schemes they’re proposing are sure to lengthen that process, and the unemployment rate isn’t likely to improve significantly until that process plays out…

    But no one in Washington cares about that. All they care about is November. And most Americans can’t handle the truth.

    1. Anybody else remember “Falling Down”?

      I remember that it’s by Joel “Nipples on Batman’s suit” Schumacher. OH THE HUMANITY

    2. Yeah, I remember “Falling Down”. It was a film version telling the story of white middle-class fury at having to share the civilization with different people. It had a bunch of funny, impotent revenge fantasies in it.

      You might also know this theme as “The Last 25 Years Of The AM Talk Radio Industry”.

    3. Falling Down was about a retiring cop trying to make it home alive on his last day of work.

      1. Is that the same one I saw or are you kidding? Robert Duvall was trying not to kill anybody on his last day of work and Michael Douglas messed it all up.

    4. “Falling Down” was about two guys, one who was about to sell himself short for a classic retirement and another who’d lost his job and couldn’t imagine himself or his world as anything other than what they’d been in the past.

      The guy that learns to see change as the wonderful risky opportunity it is, and comes to accept those risks, he’s the guy that wins.

      It was set against the backdrop of Los Angeles in the grips of recession in the early ’90s. The end of the cold war brought job cuts to the defense industry that hit Southern California really hard, so hard, people didn’t think the South Bay would survive or recover… Remember that guy in the movie getting arrested for protesting his bank, ’cause they wouldn’t give him a business loan?

      Like I said, though, within a few years, mountains of investment had created so many new jobs in new industries. From technology, to telecommunications, media, etc., and nobody associates Southern California of the ’90s with the doom and gloom that movie depicted. Within a few years, it would have been hard for audiences to imagine a guy like that movie was about not being able to find a job.

      We’re at about the same point now as we were in 1991/92, just before that movie was made.

      It happened before that too–anybody else remember “Suburbia”? Kids in the early ’80s squatting in whole neighborhoods of abandoned tract homes?

      People forget. We’ve been here before. You’d think we’d remember some of the lessons we learned last time, but every time it happens, we free market types seem to have to make the same arguments all over again.

      …no, the economic cycle turning south doesn’t mean markets don’t work. It just means there’s an economic cycle. And the best way to handle the bottom is to make sure entrepreneurs and investors have the flexibility they need to work their magic–again.

      Same as it ever was. …and the sooner our politicians stop torturing Wall Street, the people who will, necessarily, have to fund our next growth cycle, the sooner things will start getting better.

      1. To the cynics that control government however (bureaucracy and unwashed masses), there will never be another good time, so they might as well use government to get theirs before we all descend into chaos.

      2. and the sooner our politicians stop torturing Wall Street

        Torturing Wall Street by bailing out investment banks, making credit available at less than zero percent interest, and massively expanding taxpayer guarantees against mortgage defaults? I wish somebody would torture me like that.

        1. Maybe I should explain.

          The primary focus of the Obama Administration’s economic policy is making sure that Wall Street bonuses are small. …just about everything we’ve seen from them–from threatening to separate investment operations from retail banking on down, it isn’t about what they say it’s about…

          When they hit Wall Street firms with a $90 billion punitive “risk tax” on profits, specifically targeting investment banks (who already paid the TARP money back many of them were forced to take in the first place), it isn’t about anything else but keeping Wall Street bonuses small.

          http://online.wsj.com/article/…..39716.html

          Those are just recent examples…

          I know I don’t have to tell anybody around here not to believe everything the Obama Administration tells you, but that punitive tax was a glaring example of what the Obama Administration is about…they say they want to punitively tax the risks investment banks make, but what Obama calls risks, other people call investment…

          I repeat, he’s terrorizing Wall Street to score political points at the expense of the recovery.

          1. Expense of what recovery? If the Dow were in any way a reflection of the American economy, it would be below 5,000 right now. The NYSE weathered the first year of the Obama Administration better than almost any other portion of the economy, and the big institutional players who participated in that supposedly owe their continued existence to the TARP. (Whether their existential crisis was real is something we can only find out in the counterfactualverse, where the U.S.A. had a functional government in 2008.)

            The bonus non-issue is just the tribute vice pays to virtue. Obama has been as strongly pro-Wall Street as every American president since the Buttonwood Agreement.

            1. To the contrary. Killing Wall Street bonuses has been and continues to be the driving force of his economic policy. It’s even become more of a centerpiece since the election in Mass.

              And it isn’t about the Dow.

              The reinvestment we need to see growth again will necessarily have to be about Mergers and Acquisitions, secondary offerings and IPOs. There will be bond offerings and hostile takeovers…just like always.

              All of these things generate huge fees and translate into huge bonuses, but that good stuff won’t start in earnest until Obama gets off the investment banks’ case. That’s what Wall Street’s about.

              …not the Dow.

  7. Our economic problem today is a little bit of “perfect storm.” That is the real estate bubble burst simultaneously with the fad of “greenness” inflating, which is anti-consumption. You are correct that government “creating” jobs is hurting more than helping, but that is a lesson yet to be learned, if ever by voters.

    1. All created by stupid government “do good” programs.

      I liked the line from the Reagan years “what have you undone lately?”

    2. I don’t know about that — a lot of “green” practices result in extra consumption (e.g. Cash For Cluckers).

      I’d say high energy prices were a more potent second ingredient to our perfect storm.

      1. The greenies were screaming bloody murder over Cash for Clunkers. Gaia cries everytime a new car rolls off the assembly line, even if it gets better mileage than the car you’re crushing.

    3. Everyone also forgets the spike in gas prices which scared the shit out of everyone and caused companies to change up their entire supply line processes.

  8. there is something disingenuous in slagging the executive and legislative branches for poor job creation when you know … that there is nothing the government can do to create jobs.

    True. However, the government can do plenty to prevent jobs from being created, and since the fall of 08, it’s been doing it as hard as it can.

  9. I’d be happier if both ruling parties acknowledged that job creation is not part of their purview and is not within their power.

    Well, … OK.

    But some of us will keep on saving living wage jobs until the cows come home!

    1. The Living Wage is the Salvation! Say AMEN brother!

    2. Honey, we’re ho–ome!

    3. Is the living wage like the living constitution?

      1. Living wage is not quite so bad. The living Constitution costs you both your freedom and your wealth. Living wage only costs you your wealth, unless you are a sub-par earner then it’s a gold mine.

      1. Sometimes I am worse than SugarFree at this. Here.

  10. Let me know when somebody figures out how to get democratically elected politicians grounded in reality.

    1. The first step is to get the electorate so grounded.

      1. The second step is to come up with a better system than democracy. And no, making it a republic won’t solve the problem.

        1. Personally I think we should do away with voting in representatives. Instead, shift to a lottery system. Anyone who meets some minimum level of capability (over age 25, no felony convictions, no bankruptcies within last 10 years, and of course a citizen with full command of English) could be chosen at random to serve for two years. Maybe add a process to see if someone keeps the job so we don’t end up with a freshman class of 425 every other year. That would go a long way to getting rid of the influence of lobbyists and such (if there’s no campaign, there’s no campaign warchest).

          1. I know it’s not a new idea, but how about excluding from voting anyone who receives a welfare check? Not only would that remove a lot of pilferers from the voting roles, but it would open a big debate about the nature of Medicare and it would really piss off the geezers.

            1. Now you and CaptainSmartass are stealing my lines. So now we just have to convince everybody else…

    2. I think it requires copper wire.

      1. I can take care of that.

      2. I kind of like the idea of just shorting them out, once elected. bzzzp!

  11. I know this is OT, but has everyone seen
    this
    about John Edwards? Good stuff.

    1. Unless it is from the Enquirer I’m not trusting it.

  12. Through that lens, the economic picture looks quite a bit better. The home “ownership” rate, while still historically high at more than 67 percent, has dropped back [pdf] to its 2000 level.

    This is a terrible guage of anything…if everyone had homes they could afford to pay for a high home ownership rate would be great (ie you own a home in an area without Smart growth policies) but when that rate is dependent on easy loans based on inflated prices due to government constraining the available land for home sites then a high number is bad. Of course a low number because banks realize the shaky prospects of giving loans to homes built in smart growth states with inflated prices is bad as well.

    No idea why Tim is so reluctant to express this simple fact. I guess he thinks calling “home ownership” a bad thing helps him sell magazines.

    or perhaps he is seeing to much red when he looks at his archenemy the Realtors to actually look at the housing bubble rationally.

  13. If you take the roughly $800 bil Stimulus, the $700 bil TARP and divide it by the 134.6 million employed, you get a little over $10,000. Ya think that might have created a few jobs, savings, mortgage payments…? It might have even saved a few of those “too big to fail fuck” institutions.

    1. No, because the banks would have collapsed like dominoes, taking down innumerable companies with them, and drastically lowering the number of employed people. This would have slaughtered state coffers, forcing them to layoff millions of cops and teachers, etc. Who knows how deep the feedback would have carried us.

      This article seemed like a standard conservative screed to me. There was absolutely nothing original. I have no idea why Reason chose to focus on it today.

    2. No, because the banks would have collapsed like dominoes, taking down innumerable companies with them, and drastically lowering the number of employed people. This would have slaughtered state coffers, forcing them to layoff millions of cops and teachers, etc. Who knows how deep the feedback would have carried us.

      This article seemed like a standard conservative screed to me. There was absolutely nothing original. I have no idea why Reason chose to focus on it today.

    3. No, because the banks would have collapsed like dominoes, taking down innumerable companies with them, and drastically lowering the number of employed people. This would have slaughtered state coffers, forcing them to layoff millions of cops and teachers, etc. Who knows how deep the feedback would have carried us.

      This article seemed like a standard conservative screed to me. There was absolutely nothing original. I have no idea why Reason chose to focus on it today.

    4. No, because the banks would have collapsed like dominoes, taking down innumerable companies with them, and drastically lowering the number of employed people. This would have slaughtered state coffers, forcing them to layoff millions of cops and teachers, etc. Who knows how deep the feedback would have carried us.

      This article seemed like a standard conservative screed to me. There was absolutely nothing original. I have no idea why Reason chose to focus on it today.

      1. I see fear mongering is just as prevalent on the left as it is on the right.

        Sure, it’s always more desirable to allow companies to operate with no fear of bankruptcy. But then again, we can always try to force their compliance through regulation.

      2. I see fear mongering is just as prevalent on the left as it is on the right.

        Sure, it’s always more desirable to allow companies to operate with no fear of bankruptcy. But then again, we can always try to force their compliance through regulation.

      3. Repeating it four times doesn’t make it true. Everybody saw that trailer in 2008, Chad. Now they’ve seen the movie, and it sucks. Get some new chicken-little talking points.

  14. Chad, you are a douche …

  15. Are there even millions of cops and teachers in existence?

    The domino theory – it works for warmongers and fascists like Chad.

  16. It’s not so much that Chad is a douche (he is) but that he completely lacks imagination. He cannot conceive of a world populated by innovative, adaptive, autonomous people.

  17. Every time I go to the mall, there are tons of people shopping. It’s harder and harder to find parking. Is it just the Boston area?

    1. Yes, it is only Boston. It’s that unbearable lightness of feeling everyone there has now that you are finally free of your decades-long Kennedy infestation.

    2. Nope, Houston too.

    3. You ought to try shopping at a Walmart in Phoenix in the middle of the night.

  18. If you do the math 100% employment when Obama started was 145.7 million. Based on current employment the unemployment rate is 11.1%, not even considering the underemployment due to fewer hours in the average work week.

    Nice job Washington

  19. there is nothing the government can do to create jobs.

    Sure there is – cut taxes and kill the poor. Geez, Tim, think outside the box, willya?

    1. I can see how killing the poor creates jobs (for ammunition suppliers, etc.), but how would cutting taxes create jobs?

      1. Lower taxes = more money in a consumer’s pocket = more consumption of goods and services = more money a business has to expand = more real jobs.

        Now just cut all the taxes imposed on those businesses and watch the economy expand exponentially!

    2. Sure there is – cut taxes and kill the poor.

      You really need to link when you say something like that…

  20. Kill the poor? We’re fighting two wars, already. We’re killing them as fast as we can.

  21. there is nothing the government can do to create jobs

    They can increase the size of the military…

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