The Stimulus vs. Recovery Race Heats Up

Yes, it is but one element of our current misery, and we still got a long way to go. But after contemplating the chart Nick Gillespie posted yesterday about the timing of government anti-recession measures vs. when recessions ended anyway, was interesting to read this today:

U.S. retail sales jumped 1 percent in January, reversing a six-month declining trend and defying economists' expectations by posting the biggest increase in 14 months.

The Commerce Department says January retail sales rose a percent from December after having fallen for six straight months. Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected January sales to show a drop of 0.8 percent. They plunged 2.7 percent in December, which had the weakest holiday selling season since at least 1969.

Comments

[Warren]

U.S. retail sales jumped 1 percent in January

I don't believe it for one second. Look for that number to be revised down. Soon. Maybe before the weeks out even.

[Blue]

It's nice they rushed through the shit-loads-of-money stimulus bill to kick start the hyper-inflation of our "recovery."

[z]

While better than expected, it's still 10% below January 2008 on a nominal basis. It's only "up" because December was worse.

[robc]

While better than expected, it's still 10% below January 2008 on a nominal basis. It's only "up" because December was worse.

While true, that is always true at the end of a recession (not saying this is, but in case it is).

You start back up, but are still way below the where you were in the past. Just because the 1st derivate of the function is positive, doesnt mean the function is positive.

[domoarrigato]

Positions that are working: cash, gold, TIPS, fetal.

[Team America]

The phenomenon has a name:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean

[R C Dean]

I'm sure its just a coincidence, but:

Monday: Geithner unveils the New Bank Bailout Plan. Obama gives a prime time press conference on the stimulus.

Tuesday: Market down 5%.

Wednesday: Conference Committee agrees on stimulus bill.

Thursday: Market down 2.5% and counting.

[Jerry]

What would happen in Congress just decides not to spend any of the $800 billion that was in the bill, would anyone notice?

[R C Dean]

What would happen in Congress just decides not to spend any of the $800 billion that was in the bill, would anyone notice?

The only people who matter anymore, the Dem constituencies and power brokers getting that money, would notice, you damn betcha.

[Billy!]

Isn't consumer's spending a lot how we got into all this?

[d]

The only people who matter anymore, the Dem constituencies and power brokers getting that money, would notice, you damn betcha.

The personification of which is Stephen Fowler?

[TallDave]

What? Spending is up?! But we haven't even passed the stimulus yet!

Clearly we need a law preventing consumers from spending more without first being stimulated by the government. It's unpatriotic and good Americans won't stand for it.

[Urkobold?]

IN TRYING TIMES LIKE THESE, IT IS IMPORTANT TO INVEST IN HUMAN CAPITAL, NOT MATERIAL THINGS LIKE GOLD AND OTHER COMMODITIES. HUMAN CAPITAL LIKE SLAVES, WHICH THE URKOBOLD IS BUYING IN MASS QUANTITIES IN THE ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN MARKETS.

[Warren]

The Urkobold's economic theories are bankrupt. Human capital is over valued. I'm leveraging my short position. I've already enslaved myself to ten different buyers.

[R C Dean]

I've already enslaved myself to ten different buyers.

Kind of a reverse polygamy deal, Warren?

[PapayaSF]

But doesn't anyone here understand? We must do something, the stimulus bill is something, therefore we must do the stimulus bill! Obama and the Democrats have repeatedly explained the pure logic of it all.

[alan]

R C Dean | February 12, 2009, 10:31am | #
What would happen in Congress just decides not to spend any of the $800 billion that was in the bill, would anyone notice?

The only people who matter anymore, the Dem constituencies and power brokers getting that money, would notice, you damn betcha.

Aren't they afraid they may overheat and overstimulate the government with all of these projects? Ha, Ha ha. Yeah, it always tickles my funny bone when libs use the 'overheat' excuse for not passing tax cuts in years the budget is relatively speaking in the black, and then deny tax cuts are an efficient means of stimulating the economy during downturns.

[Urkobold?]

ACCORDING TO THE URKOBOLD'S RECORDS, THE URKOBOLD HAS ACQUIRED THE SLAVE SERVICING RIGHTS OF WARREN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ASIA DOMINATRIX CORPORATION. THE URKOBOLD PLANS TO PACKAGE THESE RIGHTS AND SELL THEM ON THE SECONDARY MARKET AS A SLAVE-BACKED SECURITY (SBS).

[alan]

PapayaSF | February 12, 2009, 11:29am | #
But doesn't anyone here understand? We must do something, the stimulus bill is something, therefore we must do the stimulus bill! Obama and the Democrats have repeatedly explained the pure logic of it all.

With the items in the bill, particularly the stealth health care provisions, it would literally be less destructive to our society if they spent a trillion on gold plating
a bridge to nowhere, or, hell, building a city on Mars.

[Gilbert Martin]

" I'm leveraging my short position. I've already enslaved myself to ten different buyers."

Silly boy, that is a naked short position(s) - you have already been enslaved to the federal government and will be for the rest of your life.

The only logical thing to do is kill yourself to close out the position.

[Tulpa]

This is almost certainly due to the ever increasing popularity of gift cards as Christmas gifts. The cards themselves are not counted as "retail sales", so they don't affect the retail sales numbers until they are redeemed (ie, January mostly).

[KT]

I don't accuse Mr. Doherty of it, but anyone using this as evidence that the economy is actually doing OK is being intellectually dishonest.

This is good news and all, but let's not start sucking each other's dicks just yet.

[JW]

I'm going to pimp my own prediction:

JW | February 11, 2009, 12:56pm | #

If it fails, Republicans will argue that he has failed. The charge will resonate.

The problem with this theory is that the economy will have to completely collapse for it to be considered a "failure." Any outcome, no matter how bad, short of collapse, can and will be spun by the Dems as either "not their fault," "it would have worked if not for the Republican opposition," Bush-era policies," etc. etc.

Things have probably pretty much gotten as bad as they're going to get. Any positive uptick after Friday will be a result of "Obama's and the Democrat's courageous stimulus package." Anything other than recovery will be prima facia evidence that we didn't stimulate enough.

[PapayaSF]

Alan: The bill also undoes the 1996 welfare reforms. More.

[Paul]

I propose a War on Recessions. A new Recession Czar can be appointed.

[Hazel Meade]

Guys, there's a huge push going on for bank nationalization.

Get on the ball.

The minute the stimulus bill passes, bank nationalization is next on the agenda. At this point, I think it is more likely than not, because all the opponents are too busy arguing about the stimulus to even think about it right now.

[J sub D]

What would happen in Congress just decides not to spend any of the $800 billion that was in the bill, would anyone notice?

The NEA would.

[mark]

Dead Cat Bounce.

[Dee]

If that 1% is even accurate I would bet big money that increase came in the firearms and ammunition sector of the economy. I know I have increased my spending on those goods.

[Curious George]

Let's contrast this to the prediction that the retail sector will start losing 100,000 jobs monthly. Sound like a recovery? How many real estate investors will be impacted by the collapse of firms like Circuit City? How many more will close? How many restuarant chains will follow?

Recovery? Just spend more, increase taxes, and ramp up government controls. Makes you long for the good times Carter gave us in the 70s.

Obama is a miserable failure, and he's a malignant monkey.

[Gabe]

My local coin and bullion shop has had sales up over 100% since last year. Bags of rice and canned goods are also up.

[cunnivore]

I was talking to a local gold shop about possibly adding to my stash and he said it's darn near impossible for dealers to get gold right now, there's so much being hoarded.

Couple that with the difficulties manufacturers are having keeping up with ammo demand, and it could be a rough month even for those two types of retail.

[Gabe]

If you don't have a source to buy silver and gold then your not a real libertarain.

[Gil]

These strange movements in sales totals are clearly further evidence of human caused global warming.

[Curious George]

Gil:

Global warming is caused by expanding gas bags on Capitol Hill singing "stimulate your cronies and the bribes will come."