A Media Black Eye in Missouri?

I see that the Associated Press called Missouri for Hillary Clinton:

Propelled largely by rural voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the important presidential testing ground of Missouri on Tuesday. Republicans Mike Huckabee and John McCain were in a tight battle for a rich delegate reward.Clinton had about 50 percent of the vote compared with about 47 percent for rival Barack Obama, with 88 percent of Missouri's precincts reporting.

Except… according to CNN, with 97 percent of the votes counted, there are only 3 counties that haven't fully reported. Boone County, home of Columbia University, where Obama is winning about 60-35. Ray County, voting 66-30 for Clinton. Vote-rich St. Louis County, going for Obama in a landslide. Unless the AP is aware of a huge cache of uncounted ballots, Obama will win the state by about 6,000 votes. It's a weird end to a night of off-kilter horse race reporting.

UPDATE 12:33: Fox News calls it for Obama. But anyone with a map could have, really.

Comments

[Chicago Tribue]

DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!

[Sparky]

I called it first, a couple threads back! I want a cookie and a pony!

Politico called it for Clinton close to an hour ago when she was up by several percent. They've still got it checked for her even as Obama's ahead by ~5,000 votes. Presumably they'll get around to changing that soon.

[peachy]

The Slate election blog had a snarky post a while back about those unreliable exit polls, which showed a narrow Clinton lead in Mizzou at a time when she was up 14% in the vote. I guess Slate doesn't have a map either.

[The Wine Commonsewer]

Dave, it's pushing 4:00 am your time. Go to bed.

[The Wine Commonsewer]

Wait, I can't add. Victim of California Public Schools. You don't add three hours to the time it already is in DC. Never mind.

[NP]

TWC,

I can't figure out what the hell you're sputtering. Maybe you should go to bed? 🙂

[Forever In Dreams]

Dave, it's pushing 4:00 am your time. Go to bed.

Quiet, you.

One or two more posts and dude'll be all Obamafied Communion butt-probe hallucinations.

[Colin]

It's just about 1:00 am est.

NBC is also calling it for Obama.

Strange, they have results and a winner in AK Democratic caucus, but nothing in the Republican one.

[The Wine Commonsewer]

NP, no, I need more wine.

Without thinking I added the three hour time diff to the time on Weigel's post and I thought, sheesh, he must be tired. Then I realized that I'm on PST and the post is dated for DC Mean Time, and tried to correct it. [shrugs] [pours]

[Colin]

Paul is up to 9 delegates according to Fox.

[peachy]

Yeah, I was a bit puzzled too - I was thinking, "is Dave posting from mid-Atlantic? Or perhaps he's been posted to the new Reason office in the South Sandwich Islands. He must have really pissed Gillespie off somehow."

[Kolohe]

But anyone with a map could have, really.

Where's Miss Teen South Carolina when you need her?

[Miss Teen South Carolina]

Where's Miss Teen South Carolina when you need her?

The Iraq, such as...

[Jumbie]

Peachy,

Weigel killed Gillespie's dog. He's currently an involuntary participant in a 'row across the Atlantic' event

[NP]

TWC,

That I understood. It's just that when I read your last comments I felt like I was skimming thru the more obscure parts of Ulysses, and that tells me you do need some sleep. 🙂

Or should I say, "Daybreak, gentlemen!"

[The Wine Commonsewer]

.....
you do need some sleep....

Sold! I'm off to nah-nah land.

[Nelson]

They've still done a better job at calling the races than Eric Dondero's pathetic blog.

[John Schultz]

Small correction, the university in Columbia is the University of Missouri (formerly UM-Columbia), while Columbia College is a smaller college also in the same town.

I'll be interested to hear what the hold-up on the last 20-odd precincts in Boone County was; our county clerk is considered one of the better in the state and I don't recall the county results being so late in previous elections.

[peachy]

It really is a kinder, gentler age, Jumbie - even galley slaves get wi-fi.

[Click \'n\' Learn]

Weigel's going to be posting all night, when he isn't out in the driveway working on his Camaro.

[Syphax]

I thought it was really funny that CNN repeatedly referred to St. Louis as "notoriously slow" at counting ballots.

[Sparky]

...and Lonewacko will be posting all night when he's not masturbating to his sketches of scantily clad Minutemen keeping him pure by guarding the border.

[Sparky]

"...St. Louis as "notoriously slow" at counting ballots"

Sad but true.... It's happened before and I'm sure it'll happen again (in November).

[Ventifact]

But anyone with a map could have [called it for Obama], really.

So, with 100% reporting, Obama won by one point. That sounds like the kind of race one could issue such a certain predictions about.

[Ben S]

I seldom get cause to feel proud to live in Missouri, best relish it whilst I can.

[Rick Barton]

More very insightful and interesting election coverage from David Weige!!- One of the reasons that Reason is so stellar.

[peachy]

Well, Missouri voters did prefer a dead man to John Ashcroft - that's worth a decade of pride right there.

[Rick Barton]

...And David Weigel makes predictions too. Very nice to read-And shows that he's really into the details of the races.

[Eric Dondero]

The media deserves a black eye for it's glowing coverage of "Huckamania."

Romney ended up with 7 states to Huck's 5 in the end. But you wouldn't know it by watching any of the networks. All the talking heads were unanimous: "Romney's getting beat bad, and Huckabee is the big surprise of the night."

They just don't want to wait for the results to come in from Colorado, Montana and Alaska.

[Steve]

Yeah, I checked about midnight CST, and McClatchey (owners of the KC Star) gave Hillary the check mark even though Obama had about a 5000 vote lead. Fifteen minutes later, with 99 percent reporting, Obama's lead was nearly 7000 - no check mark for anyone then.

The NBC affiliate in KC fucked up its reporting of the MO Republican primary in its graphics flashing at the bottom of the screen during the late news. For several minutes at the beginning of the newscast, they had Ron Paul receiving 32% of the vote in the state. In totally unrelated news, they also predicted I'd get 4-8 inches of snow at my house. Woke up this morning to an inch.

[economist]

I'm actually at home 'cause I've been coming down with a cold. Are you guys always here at this time of day?

[Lost_In_Translation]

economist,

work starts at 6:30am where I am. Slacker!

[Nephilium]

Bah... you're all hobos.

I start work at 10:00-10:30...

So, yes, I'm usually bouncing around reading the overnight posts at this time in the morning...

Nephilium

[ed]

There were primaries last night? I was watching Nancy Grace. Did you know that a blond cheerleader went missing somewhere in the Caribbean last year and she's still missing?

[Bronwyn]

ed, it's worse than that. She went missing in May of 2005.

Yep. Still missing.

Eeeyup. Still all over the news.

Really, ed. There's nothing else going on in the world, we gotta talk about something!

Did somebody mention Brittney?

[R C Dean]

Of course, narrow victories in one state or another are pretty meaningless in the Dem race, which awards delegates by district.

And, even though Hillary "won" the go states (NY, NJ, CA), Obama is now claiming to have won more delegates yesterday and taken a very narrow lead in the delegate race.

Of course, there are still two huge wild cards out there in delegate counts - MI and FL, both of which went to Hillary, and the superdelegates, which probably also lean to Hillary.

But, if Hillary wins in the end at the convention with superdelegates and/or by getting MI and FL seated, I don't see how there isn't a pretty massive backlash within the Dem party against her for having stolen the nomination. These are the same people who still haven't gotten over the 'stolen' election of 2000, can you imagine their reaction to blatant backroom logrolling that delivers the nomination to Hillary?

[R C Dean]

And, even though Hillary "won" the go states

How "big" in my brain turned into "go" on my keyboard, I'll never know.

[joe]

The Democratic race is basically tied right now, but the rest of the contest is more favorable to Obama. He could sweep about eight states in the next week, and with the nomination process turning towards small contests, he can spend a lot of time on retail politics and the free media that comes with it, charming people.

The Great Big National Machine phase of the campaign now becomes much less important.

[tarran]

RC Dean,

these things happen:

Last night I was putting together an exam for my calculus class. Throughout the exam I wrote 'convenient' instead of 'continuous'.

Ex: "For each of the following functions, indicate whether or not it is convenient over all real values of x, and justify your answer."

Luckily I caught it before I sent it to the printers.

Some critical brain cell must have died somewhere. A neuron is a terrible thing to waste! 🙂

[BakedPenguin]

joe, the problem is after next week. WI, TX, OH & PA - all with (at least previously) HRC leading by decent margins.

[joe]

BakedPenguin, with the exception of Illinois, every single state that has voted once had HRC leading by decent margins or better. Every contest has been the same - Clinton has a commanding lead a few weeks out, Obama closes fast, and he either catches up to her or doesn't quite catch up to her.

Whether Obama can catch her in those states (or in which of those states is probably a better way to phrase it) will depend to some extent on momentum, which he will have plenty of.

[Cesr]

Things don't look too bad for Obama now. Hes got a string of good primaries for him next week.

[Cesar]

Ok, so I forgot the A in my name.

[R C Dean]

The "delegate by district rules" of the Democratic party ensure that no matter who "wins" close contests, the race will remain close.

Clinton has a commanding lead a few weeks out, Obama closes fast, and he either catches up to her or doesn't quite catch up to her.

Even if Obama (or Clinton) "sweeps" the next round at the state level, the other will pick up plenty of delegates to keep it within the margin of backroom dealing at the convention.

[Smappy]

Wow, lots of typos on this Hangover Wednesday. Tarran, I once took an economics exam where "supply curve" was replaced by "supple curve."

[joe]

RC,

I think Obama still has a shot of winning this before the convention. He's got the wind at his back still, and it's a question of whether he can pick up enough steam to belatedly do what Kerry did after Iowa - win through the perception of being inevitable.

As far as "backroom dealing," there hasn't been a brokered convention since the olden days, when the spoils system was in place. I don't know what a brokered convention would look like in 2008, but it probably wouldn't look like a few guys in top hats in a smoke-filled room anymore.

[Jennifer]

pleasenothillarypleasenothillarypleasenothillary

[R C Dean]

I think Obama still has a shot of winning this before the convention.

Me, too. But its an outside shot, given the proportional awarding of delegates. I assume that's the rule for the remaining states?

And I think we can rely on the Clintons not to retire from the field until they are mathematically eliminated, even counting all their delegates from MI and FL and all the uncommitted superdelegates in their favor. Anything can happen, of course, but I don't that's likely to happen before the convention.

Obama being ahead in committed delegates going into the convention, and Hillary trying to get the nomination through rules changes and superdelegates, is the likely scenario at this point. If she fails, the bitterness her attempt will create should drive extra nails into the Clinton coffin - nails I suspect will be needed before the Clintons shuffle off thhis mortal coil. If she succeeds, it bodes ill for the Democratic Party.

[Smappy]

I don't know what a brokered convention would look like in 2008, but it probably wouldn't look like a few guys in top hats in a smoke-filled room anymore.

What?! But top hats and cigar smoke are the best parts of backroom dealing.

[Smappy]

And I think we can rely on the Clintons not to retire from the field until they are mathematically eliminated, even counting all their delegates from MI and FL and all the uncommitted superdelegates in their favor.

Oh, man, if she pulls off a nomination through that kind of chicanery, black voters are going to be so pissed! She'd lose the general election for sure.

[joe]

RC,

What I'm saying is, Obama has a chance to pick up enough momentum that he won't win by small margins in the second half of the race, but by big enough margins to score serious delegate advantages.

I'm not too worried about the Florida and Michigan delegates. If there was any serious chance of that happening, we could count on all of the Edwards, Kucinich, Dodd, and Richardson delegates to be released to Obama.

My guess is that those delegates will only be seated after one or the other candidates wins without them, so that their votes will be counted, but won't change the outcome.

[joe]

those delegates being the Florida and Michigan delegates.

[Cesar]

RC's scenario seems more and more probable. The Clintons will try to take the nomination by hook or by crook.

[Lost_In_Translation]

joe, the problem is after next week. WI, TX, OH & PA - all with (at least previously) HRC leading by decent margins.

no polls have been conducted in any of those states for a while or at all. TX has not yet been seriously polled for the democratic side.

[R C Dean]

IF Obama has the momentum to win convincingly as the race winds down, then joe's scenario is probably the likely one.

However, the Clintons now have their backs to the wall, and Obama is the one thing standing between Hillary and what she wants more than anything else.

There was an informal truce called for Super Tuesday. Given what just happened is probably to Hillary's Second Worst Case Scenario for Super Tuesday, I don't think that truce will last. Hillary tried winning nice, and gave up the momentum and the lead; the Clintons have to conclude that the only they can win is to win ugly. Given who they are, that means we can expect to see two of the toughest, most amoral politicians in a generation take the gloves off.

Can Obamamentum survive the Attack of the Clintons? Its been a long time since anyone won betting against them, but maybe their string has run out.

[Dave Weigel]

no polls have been conducted in any of those states for a while or at all. TX has not yet been seriously polled for the democratic side.

The last Texas poll showed Clinton only up by 10. I see Obama winning literally everything until March 4 - Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin - and the Clintons claiming Texas and Ohio are the real decision-making states.

[Cesar]

RC do you think it will be Bill or Hillary that attacks Obama? I think Hillary directly attacks him this time after the strategy of using Bill as a surrogate backfired pretty badly in SC.

[bookworm]

"Hillary tried winning nice, and gave up the momentum and the lead; the Clintons have to conclude that the only they can win is to win ugly."

But when the Clintons get nasty, that's when they really go down. The race baiting they've done lately is largely responsible for their recent decline.

[bookworm]

"The last Texas poll showed Clinton only up by 10. I see Obama winning literally everything until March 4 - Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin - and the Clintons claiming Texas and Ohio are the real decision-making states."

Dick Morris also believes that Obama will take all those states. He believes that Hillary's only strenth is in the Northeast coastal states and California. Hillary only carried Arkansas and its two border states Oklahoma and Tennesee as far as flyover country goes.

I have my concerns about Texas because of the large Hispanic vote that will probably go mostly for Hillary.

[Cesar]

Obama should also be concerned about Ohio due to the fact that working class white people tend to favor her.

I expect Obama to do some shameless pandering to protectionists to try to remedy that, though.

[Cesar]

Joe, if Hillary wins the nomination by getting the MI and FL delegates seated, could you honestly vote for her in good come November?

[bookworm]

"If she fails, the bitterness her attempt will create should drive extra nails into the Clinton coffin - nails I suspect will be needed before the Clintons shuffle off thhis mortal coil."

Before driving the nails, for extra insurance, we need to drive stakes in their hearts.

[joshua corning]

What I'm saying is, Obama has a chance to pick up enough momentum that he won't win by small margins in the second half of the race, but by big enough margins to score serious delegate advantages.

Yes among socialist voters (intellectual brothers to fascists I might add) a socialist who is a proven liar and crook will lose to someone who is simply a socialist.

How is this even news?

[joe]

Cesar,

The other choices being McCain or Romney? Yeah, I could see myself voting for Hillary in that scenario. McCain looks at Iran and thinks "pincer movement," and Romney is a genuinely loathsome person whose ideas about executive power would make Hillary Clinton seem like the Dodd.

[joe]

Oh, goodie, another thread elevated by joshua corning's presence.

Thank you, that was...er...special.

[Cesar]

So you would vote for someone who would shamlessly steal your party's nomination?

[R C Dean]

RC do you think it will be Bill or Hillary that attacks Obama?

They've usually gotten surrogates to do it. Remember all that "Obama is a Muslim coke dealer" spam?

Obama should also be concerned about Ohio due to the fact that working class white people tend to favor her.

Obama has been beating Hillary for the white male vote, and I think they were essentially tied for the white vote overall. Hillary's rock-solid ethnic support these days comes from Asians and Hispanics.

Weird, huh?

[joe]

I'd hold my nose, Cesar.

It beats 100 more years in Iraq, and Iran to boot.

You don't seriously think this process is about picking moral exemplars, do you?

And no, however creatively you choose to phrase your description of Clinton's theoretical efforts to swing the nomination with those delegates, it's not going to influence my thinking. You could have just said "do that" and I would have written the same response. Or at a minimum, you could have thrown in a couple of gratuitous uses of the words "socialist" and "fascist." That seems to be popular these days.

[Cesar]

I'm not going to call Hillary a Fascist or Socialist. But if she wins the nomination of your party by seating disqualified delegates, I am going to call her an election thief. In that case its not hyperbole, its just the truth.

[joe]

Since the party convention, and not Hillary Clinton, is in charge of seating delegates, than any decision about whether to do so cannot by definition be stealing an election.