Super Tuesday V: California and the rest of them

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California closed at 11 p.m., and as projected, there's no winner in either primary yet. Alaska closes in two and a half hours, the rest of the caucuses are trickling in, so you can discuss them here. If the "Obama and Romney win all caucuses" pattern persists, Obama and Romney will win.

The network coverage of this has been pretty inscrutable: We are told that delegate-rich states in the northeast are big wins for Clinton even though every Democratic state will award its delegates proportionately. Similarly, we're watching Mitt Romney get his head handed to him when his best states (except Massachusetts) are simply coming a little later and he's in competition for California. I think newspapers, with their longer lead times and without the rush to get on air and start sharing opinions, are going to report a Democratic split (Obama is winning more states than Clinton, she's won the big ones) and a three-way Republican race with Romney mulling his next move and Huckabee blowing his trumpet.

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NEXT: Super Tuesday Part IV: 10 p.m.

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  1. Will Alaska turn the race around for Paul?

  2. There’s still time to swoop in and steal the LPA nomination by May.

  3. Every election, I remember why I hate democracy.

  4. Only if he wins it.

  5. I’m calling California for Clinton.

  6. Mitt Romney has swept the West and Northwest.

    He has won North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah.

    The ruggest individualist West has gone solidly for Romney.

  7. I will admit something tonight. And if any of you all ever say I said this, I’ll call you a damn liar.

    Ron Paul did pretty well in Montana, and decently in North Dakota. 24% in MT & 15% in ND. He even beat McCain in MT.

    That’s probably a good sign for him in Alaska. I won’t be shocked if he wins AK.

  8. I wanna know, what happened to Ron Paul in Alabama?

    That’s Lew Rockwell’s home state. You’ve got the Mises Inst. there, and all of Rockwell’s NeoConfederate followers.

    And Paul ended up with a measly 3% in AL. Can someone explain this?

  9. As goes Alaska, so goes the Yukon!

    If Ron Paul voters decide they really want to win, they can do it by showing how RP’s competitors aren’t qualified. For instance, if someone ever really presses McCain on this, he’s not going to have much of a career left.

    Who I voted for here. I hope that will prevent Her from putting me on a list or something.

  10. Wow, Clinton’s just stomping Obama so far in California. I thought he was supposed to have come very close to catching up there.

    Both the dem and rep races are within ~4,000 votes as the final reports come in.

  11. And if any of you all ever say I said this, I’ll call you a damn liar.

    Sarcasm? Lunacy? Text is a poor medium.

  12. “Both the dem and rep races are within ~4,000 votes as the final reports come in.”

    …in Missouri. Forgot an important detail….

  13. What the hell do people see in Clinton, anyway?

    Seriously, somebody freakin’ explain it to me!

  14. The ruggest individualist Mormon West has gone solidly for Romney.

    Fixed.

  15. Tritone-

    A last name, and a wife of a former President. That says a lot about Democratic voters, doesn’t it?

  16. Those racist newsletters Lew Rockwell wrote didn’t scare up a lot of voters, I guess.

    Ron’s still my guy, but, please, no more Lew Rockwell. Someone should put a cover over his cage.

  17. Easy: She’s the antiXrist.

  18. What the hell do people see in Clinton, anyway?

    Looking at the votes by county, I would say for a lot of voters it’s that she’s not half-black.

  19. Looks like Obama may win Missouri.

  20. That big clump of votes from St Louis County just closed the gap to a fraction of a percent. With St Louis (the city) and Boone still to come, there’s a real chance Obama could take Mizzou outright. (Which probably will mean jack all in the actual delegate count.)

  21. Mitt Romney has swept the West and Northwest.

    He has won North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Colorado and Utah.

    Before you give him the West, let’s wait on California’s results.

  22. Paul solid second in MT. Rugged individualism is still alive in the west. Regardless of this, MT is my single most favorite state in Union!

  23. peachy,

    CNN.com has Obama up by about 4K.

  24. California called for Clinton by MSNBC. She can spin this as “her night” now. I guess the crying worked.

  25. Before you give him the West, let’s wait on California’s results.

    CA is in the West? (Shhhh, don’t tell Dondero.)

  26. Ali – go spend a week in Glacier National Park. You’ll spend a lot of time afterward thinking about moving to Montana.

  27. Paul is doing very well in most of the states Romney is winning (with the exception of Utah, which is, predictably, an enormous blowout for Romney).

    Assuming Romney is willing to keep dumping millions into this campaign (and assuming his wife is a good Mormon wife and sucks it up as her kid’s inheritance gets spent), the Republican race could go all the way to the convention, since the Huckster’s got the South, Romney’s got the Mountain West and many of the northern states, and McCain’s got everything else.

    Basically, Paul appears to be siphoning off votes from McCain, and Huckabee is siphoning off votes from Romney (or vice-versa).

  28. Paul got %25 in MT, but no delegates.

  29. Warty- Been to Big Sky. Great people. I wish I would live there one day.

  30. Fox calls California for Hillary and McCain.

  31. For my money, Wyoming is more beautiful than Montana. Utah is beautiful, too. The West is really where it’s at.

  32. MSNBC calls CA for McCain.

    Romney is as dead as his dad.

  33. Cold, Colin. Real cold.

  34. Great, Obama up in Missouri with 98% in.

  35. Warty:

    Do you think Ali could become a dental floss tycoon?

    Nephilium…

  36. Did someone say little girls?

    No, someone said Little Girls

  37. Oh? I’ve been looking at the NYTimes numbers all night; and it just bumped Obama into the lead too, with a big chunk of the Boone votes coming in.

  38. Smappy, Warty- And here I am in the bluest of bluest states. Grrrr… and NH ain’t that individualist anymore.

  39. MSNBC calls CA for McCain.

    Romney is as dead as his dad.

    Like I posted on another thread (before the results came in) Romney never had any chance of winning CA. The GOP race is over McCain will be the nominee.

  40. Which state, Ali? I’m kicking it in Kansas. A lot of grandeur here, let me tell you.

  41. MT is my single most favorite state in Union!

    One day I will live in Montana. I will marry a round American woman and raise rabbits, and she will cook them for me. And I will have a pickup truck… maybe even a recreational vehicle. And drive from state to state.

  42. lol, the only thing NObama can do is pulling the RACE card!! WHAT A SHAME!!!!

  43. Vasili,

    You won’t even need papers!

  44. Jiang, no politician ever had Obama’s level of success just by pulling the race card.

  45. St. Louis rules! Go Cards!

    Obama wins the pennant! Obama wins the pennant! Obama wins the pennant!

  46. “One ping more, Vasili.”

    And five minutes after that heart-warming little speech… he gets blown away. Sniff.

  47. I thought that there was only one bluest of blue states… like 100% blue?

  48. TWC-
    I can only imagine the outrage if Elfman and the gang made that song and video now.

    Although Britney pretty much did about almost a decade ago.

  49. MA is the bluest of blue states.

    Why I left . .

  50. Smappy- Close, but not quite. (I forgive VT for its blueishness- the state with the least gun control regulations).

  51. I thought that there was only one bluest of blue states… like 100% blue?

    Jersey? Rhode Island? Hawaii?

  52. Um, “Frank Discussions” for the Romney Campaign.

    and quit calling him Shirley

  53. Nah, MA has some redneck counties, right?

  54. Nah, MA has some redneck counties, right?

    And that makes it any better at rugged individualism?

  55. Man, a Huck win in MO would have the potential to blow this thing wide open again.

    As it is the win by Mac and the crushing of Mitt in CA pretty much makes the Strait Talk Express a non-stop to St Paul.

  56. As it is the win by Mac and the crushing of Mitt in CA pretty much makes the Strait Talk Express a non-stop to St Paul.

    With us crushed underneath.

  57. On the Dem side I think it’s still up for grabs.
    Does anyone know if the CA rules and/or vote distro help even up the delegate count from the 55-33 split? or will the lopsided victory cause superdelegates to overwhelm the proportional representation aspects?

  58. I don’t think there are any redneck counties. Maybe a few redneck towns out in Western Mass though. Athol and Belchertown come to mind. Haven’t lived there though in 16 years so maybe it’s all changed.

  59. Matthew- I drove through it many times, but nothing is peculiarly redneckish about it.

  60. Ca is a winner-take-all state.

    And yes on the Elfman song. 🙂

  61. On the Dem side I think it’s still up for grabs.

    Would be ironic, after all those states (see California, etc.) moved their primaries up so early, to end up having the Democratic nominee decided by Oregon’s May 20 primary.

  62. Ah MSNBC just answered my 12:40 question

  63. Ca is a winner-take-all state.

    Not for the Dems.

  64. Goatee dude is saying that Clinton CA win will get her between 24 to 44 more delgates

    But the split for the night nationwide is a wash

  65. Ah MSNBC just answered my 12:40 question

    care to share?

  66. stephen – see my 12:52

  67. From The Washington Post

    The California Democratic Party issued a helpful, if mind-boggling, explanation of how delegates will be awarded. Twenty-six of the state’s 53 congressional districts will award four delegates. To do better than a two-two split, the “winning” candidate will need more than 62.5 percent of the vote in that district.

    The thresholds for gaining a significant advantage are similarly high in districts with six delegates or those rare districts with eight delegates. That’s why both campaigns say neither candidate is likely to emerge from Tuesday’s voting with a huge lead in delegates.

  68. How idiotic is this (again!), 120,000 people voted for Edwards! Edwards!

  69. Well, it looks like Hillary got California… Which means it will be 4 more years of Republicans in the White House.

  70. Goatee dude on MSNBC also said his estimate for the final tally for the night was Obama 84-something, Clinton 83-something, but +/- 10 delegates as probable error tolerance band.

  71. Ali, like Rudy, those Edwards votes were probably absentees that were already sent in.

    Then again, seniors make up a large contingent of voters.

  72. Ali,

    Lucky you. I had beer cans thrown at me when I rode my bike through Athol, c. 1986

    /good times, though. Good Times.

  73. Is the AK count due to some precinct/caucus anomaly or are there literally less than 500 democrats in Alaska?

  74. Tom- Oh OK, that may explain it.

    But the question is, what do they do with the Edwards votes if it proportional representation in democratic CA primary? If Edwards endorses one of the other two, do his votes go to that candidate?

  75. nevermind, the cnn page explains they are pledged delegates

  76. Ali-
    It seems that unless you get more than about 25-30% in a district, you’re not going to get any delegates. So with an average of 10%, even a bunch of 20% districts won’t give Edwards any delegates

  77. Looking ahead over the next week, it seems the dem contests:

    LA primary, Nebraska & Washington state caucus on Sat, Maine caucus on Sun, Chesapeke primaries on tues

    all seem on the surface to favor Obama.

  78. kolohe- I see, thanks.

  79. I have to ask (maybe I will regret this): why does everybody give HRC so much shit for crying a couple of times? Sure, maybe she was doing the politician’s crocodile tears act one time for attention, and of course that’s reprehensible, but the last time I heard the most recent story about her crying, I could see how it very likely could have been genuine. Maybe she’s just an emotional person. So why crucify her on this matter? Women cry, and banning the ability to cry is an insurmountable hurdle that most women wouldn’t be able to pass…does this mean we will never see a woman president? (Hillary Clinton is a woman by most accounts, right?)

    I had an article about this topic — it’s bookmarked on my other computer. Maybe I’ll post it later.

  80. (Hillary Clinton is a woman by most accounts, right?)

    I, personally, am not sure.

  81. All I want to know is when Dondero is gonna be along to give us his all important McCain endorsement now that he’s lost Mitt…

  82. smacky,

    I haven’t heard a tape of her most recent crying, but the first one right before the New Hampshire primary sounded completely fake to me. Reasonable people can certainly disagree on that, and my take might reflect my personal bias against her more than anything, but I thought she was making a transparent and insincere attempt to play on people’s sympathies. Maybe the second one sounded more sincere, although I’m skeptical that I would hear it that way.

    FWIW, I never got the impression that she’s a particularly emotional person; for my money, calculating is a much more accurate word. Also FWIW, I wouldn’t condemn a woman (or man, for that matter) for crying under certain circumstances, but I would have to feel that it was honest and a reasonable emotional response given those circumstances.

    In case you couldn’t tell, I’m not a huge fan of Clinton….

  83. Jesus, how are Alaskan republicans delivering their results, by dogsled?

    Dammit I want my instant gratification, and I want it now!

  84. I will say that if she cries again I’ll be more willing to believe that it’s sincere, because I think it would be a bad political calculation. You can only go to that well so many times before the perception changes from sympathetic to unstable and unprepared for the stress of being prez.

  85. I have to ask (maybe I will regret this): why does everybody give HRC so much shit for crying a couple of times?

    It isn’t that she cried… it is why she cried. She didn’t cry at some childs’s funeral, or because she was moved to tears by the “I have a dream” speech. She cried because running in the Democratic primary is tough… boo hoo.

    If Obama or McCain cried because the press wasn’t being obnoxiously obsequious, they would have been called out even harder than Clinton was. If anything, Clinton got off easy.

  86. “Jesus, how are Alaskan republicans delivering their results, by dogsled?”

    They’re trying, but there’s not enough snow. Damn you, global warming!!

  87. I, personally, am not sure.

    Oh please, I know it’s late there, but come on. I don’t even know exactly how to interpret that, but anyway I can think of seems like a sexist cheap-shot. I think there is plenty to criticize Clinton about without resorting to gender-related stuff which is really wearing thin.

  88. Obama is now slightly ahead in New Mexico.

  89. Smack, it isn’t St Hillary’s tears, it’s the Highway Fakery. That’s a ticket in my book.

  90. http://newsminer.com/weblogs/election-2008/2008/feb/05/alaskans-prefer-romney-maybe/

    Eh, I don’t know many Paul supporters that don’t want to talk to reporters. Doesn’t look good for Paul.

  91. Well, the leads are slightly narrowing in California.

  92. Sparky and Rex Rhino and TWC, (& others),

    I agree that the tears before the NH primary seemed calculated and insincere (crocodile tears). But then I read a story the other day about how she cried when one of her mentors growing up introduced her at some conference, and had a lot of kind things to say about her, and she teared up then, too…and that seemed to me to be genuine under the circumstances. I don’t see a problem with being emotional per se, as long as it’s sentimentality we’re talking about, and not some kind of trigger-finger mentality.

  93. Looks like Romney may win Alaska.

  94. Finally some AK returns on the CNN website
    28 % reporting:

    Romney 1,200 41%

    Huckabee 634 22%

    McCain 539 19%

    Paul 466 16%

    Uncommitted 72 2%

    so not looking good for Paul so far

  95. Current Alaska headlines (I am not making this up):

    Alaskans battle crowds, bone-chilling temperatures to vote

    Hayes takes stand, rejects notions of theft

    Jury finds man guilty of sex and drugs

    Forecasters predict cold start for Yukon Quest

    Family dog saves pregnant woman from mad moose

    Stay warm, burn wood

    Fairbanks residents envision a solar-powered lifestyle

  96. Oh, and libertarian-Republican legislator Vic Kohring is in trouble and on trial for allegedly taking oil bribes.

  97. smacky,

    I have to confess I didn’t know any details about the second cry; I just heard that it had happened at a campaign event and assumed it was sketchy because the first one seemed so blatant. I agree that those circumstances seem more genuine, although I’ll still reserve judgment until I see or hear it. I don’t like to think anything positive about Clinton unless I absolutely have to…. 🙂

  98. “Looks like Romney may win Alaska.”

    The porn star mustachioed groundhog saw his shadow. That means six more weeks of Romney/Paul wankery from Dondero here….

  99. So it is gonna be Obama vs McCain?. According to yahoo.

    Paul showed lower than expected, even in AK.

    I’m glad Hillary lost, at least.

  100. Oh crap I was wrong, guess I should have hit refresh on the site.

    It looks like Clinton and McCain is it.

  101. Good morning Gents. I believe apologies are in order.

    MITT ROMNEY WINS ALASKA!!!!!!!

  102. I admit, Ron Paul did okay in some Western States, especially Montana and North Dakota. But he finished a somewhat dissapointing third in Alaska behind Huckabee.

    And 2% in Utah? What’s up with that? That used to be a very strong Libertarian State. Paul should have done much better in Utah.

  103. Yup, lots of Romney wankery from me for the coming weeks. I deserve to gloat. All you Reason-oids were giving me shit early in the night about Romney’s “loss” in W. Virginia – which really wasn’t a loss. You all couldn’t stay up to watch the Western returns.

    Romney swept the entire Northwest: All 6 States.

  104. Perhaps we can all come together now behind the Libertarian Party nominee. If McCain is the GOP choice, I’m not voting for him. Only if he pickes Sarah Palin as his VP. And even then I’ll be pulling the lever for Palin, not for McCain.

    Wayne Root is a unifying candidate. He should be the Libertarian Party choice. If he is, he’ll win tons of libertarian Republican votes.

    But Bob Barr would be great too. And Gary Johnson would be fantastic!

    C’mon Libertarian Party. Don’t nominate a Losertarian like Kubby or Phillies. Give us someone with some credibility that we can vote for in November!!

  105. I didn’t know the short bus ran this early in the morning…

  106. Dondero, you are aware that Romney lost aren’t you?

    That the apparent nominee is McCain?

    And that it doesn’t matter who you get behind in the libertarian party because you are no more libertarian than Hillary?

  107. Dondero,

    I haven’t seen the percentage totals, but what is the best state percentage that Guliani did, compared to the best state percentage that Paul did?

    How about vote totals?

    So, uh Romney wont Utah huh?

  108. And 2% in Utah? What’s up with that? That used to be a very strong Libertarian State. Paul should have done much better in Utah.

    Okay, now this may have to be the dumbest thing Dondero has ever said.

  109. Ron Paul pulled 21% in ND, and I didn’t think he’d break 10 in any of these states. Pretty impressive.

    By the way, should we basically think of this as a Clinton win, or does Obama still have a shot? NYT and CNN spin it as “no clear victory,” but the press consistently favors him. Do you think he’d have a chance in Ohio or Pennsylvania? Is Texas out of the question?

    Seems to me he does nicely in northern rural states (Idaho, Minnesota, North Dakota, others) and of course the south, but badly in high-population states. And I don’t know how a guy who’s not vehemently populist could win in the Rust Belt.

  110. Congratulations to Christine Smith, who won California’s Libertarian Presidential primary!

  111. I’m starting to think that the Free State Project people had it right when they reached the conclusion that we had to concentrate forces to win anything. Perhaps they were too ambitious in picking New Hampshire which is too large. Maybe Nevada? Or Hawaii? Looking at the Ron Paul donation and voting data might be the best clue.

  112. alisa,

    Last night was basically a tie. The mighty Hillary Machine couldn’t put Obama away, and the Obama Momentum couldn’t swamp Hillary.

    Now, looking forward, we see a stretch of contests Obama should win, to put himself in the lead in the delegate count by a non-trivial number. We’re also faced with an unthinkable situation: somebody with a major financial advantage over the Clintons. He raised a lot more money this winter, and did it in much smaller amounts, meaning more of his donors can give again.

  113. My dad, who’s a Pat Buchanan Republican, says he’s now going to take a Democratic Ohio primary ballot so he can vote for Obama against Clinton. He’s serious. This is going to be a screwy election.

  114. It must be strange for voters in states like Ohio, Texas, Washington, and Pennsylvania, whose primaries have never mattered before.

  115. Joe stole my comment, so I’ll just second him. Super Tuesday was a tie for the Dems, with Obama looking pretty good for the next few weeks.

    I would posit to any atheists on this thread that Giuliani going out with a whimper, not a bang, is evidence of a benevolent God. If Clinton goes down too, you don’t have a leg to stand on.

  116. Of course, the atheist reposte will undoubtedly be: DONDERRRROOOOOO!!!!

  117. Riposte. Crap.

  118. I can think of two beneficial outcomes to an Obama nomination:

    (1) We can be pretty safe in putting the Clinton Machine into the dustbin of history. I can’t imagine Hillary ever having a better chance than this, and Bill has been discredited in the eyes of many by his bare-knuckle shenanigans in recent weeks.

    (2) An actual black nominee should put a serious crimp in the “America is a racist nation” crowd. A black President, even moreso.

  119. If Obama gets the nomination, I’ll vote for him this fall. If it’s Hillary (shudder), I’ll vote for the Libertarian candidate.

    Does Dondero wear a toupee? It looks like a toupee.

  120. Andy,

    You should free state NV, free state NV. See if you can offset all the damned CA immigrants.

    That would be cool, I would like to come home to a free state.

  121. An actual black nominee should put a serious crimp in the “America is a racist nation” crowd. A black President, even moreso.

    Maybe. But those in the hard core will point out that Obama has a white mother and he’s not descended from American slaves.

  122. There is more than one “America is a racist nation” crowd, RC.
    An Obama presidency would put a nice-sized dent in all of them.

    There are all kinds of changes that having a black president would produce in our culture. People would look at each other differently, and in a good way. I don’t think we can predict very accurately what these changes would be, but I sure hope we get to find out.

    But those in the hard core will point out that Obama has a white mother and he’s not descended from American slaves.

    You mean like Christopher Hitchens and a slew of National Review writers have done recently? I don’t think the racial “issues” this nation deals with operate quite the way you two seem to be implying.

  123. Good point about Obama’s financial advantage – money still matters.

    Race, by the way, sends a message to foreigners as well. I don’t know how much it matters; in the end, I’m sure policy speaks louder. But our last two secretaries of state have been black, which suggests a serious belief by some in government that it’s best to present a non-white face to a mostly non-white world.

  124. There is more than one “America is a racist nation” crowd, RC.

    An Obama presidency would put a nice-sized dent in all of them.

    I’ll count that as an Agreement with R.C.

  125. Good morning Gents. I believe apologies are in order.

    Whatever for? Eric, have you been sniffing the Dry-Eraze? markers again?

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