Sure Loser Ron Paul Crushes Sure Frontrunner Giuliani—And Not Because Giuliani Gave Up

Interesting analysis over at LewRockwell.com breaking down Iowa caucus votes per campaign appearances there.

Surprisingly, given the common belief that of course Giuliani did so disastrously in Iowa because he didn't try, he made nearly as many campaign appearances there as McCain did--35 to McCain's 38. And Paul beat Giuliani so thoroughly with far fewer personal apperances--only 27.

In fact, if these judgments were made objectively based on apperance and cash, not just Giuliani partisans' excuses for his dismal showing, it might be Paul, and not Giuliani, who seemed to be barely trying in Iowa. Giuliani, in only the first 9 months of 2007, spent $237,000 in Iowa.

I was unable to get Paul's campaign to respond to a question about how much he spent there in that period, or to find today updated spending numbers for the candidates broken down by state to the caucus day. The official FEC filings for Giuliani and Paul do have categories for "allocations of primary expenditures by state," but both are blank. If any commenters know more on this, have at it. With Giuliani's appearances exceeding Paul's by 30 percent, and Paul doing more than three times as well in the votes, would Paul's spending need to have exceeded Rudy's by more than 300 percent to add believability to the "Rudy did poorly because he didn't try" notion?

One big difference between eccentric loose cannon Paul and highly respectable frontrunner Giuliani is that Paul has oodles of non-campaign workers out there plumping for him, so official campaign cash spent isn't the best measure of real on the ground effort, so I'll give Rudy that.

In votes-per-appearance, Paul pulled 429.5 to Giuliani's 114.6. Only Huckabee beat Paul for votes per appearance.

Here from Media Matters a longer debunking of the "Giuliani didn't try in Iowa" idea.

I think one lesson is that the incredibly extended pre-campaign, with all the requisite predictions and pre-judgements about what is sure to happen, is bad for political analysts' necks, having to snap back so violently from when everyone with any sense knew it would be a Clinton-Giuliani matchup.

Comments

[fyodor]

Plumping?

[Yogi]

I would have a hard time believing Paul didn't drastically outspend Guiliani in Iowa. Living here, I saw quite a bit of TV ads for RP and woke up almost every morning to a Paul commercial on my classic rock station.

I never heard or saw a Rudy ad.

[Graphite]

In other words, Ron Paul should have been stumping in Iowa in the runup to the caucus, rather than sitting in Texas reading policy papers.

I really hope he doesn't make a similar mistake in New Hampshire.

[bob]

I'm a bit late to this party but I'm sure Dondero has weighed in on another thread about how benito really beat paul because....?

[Brian Doherty]

http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=plumping

Intransitive verb, definition two: " to give support and favorable publicity to"

[Yogi]

Also, full page newspaper ads were taken out (not by the campaign, but by the grassroots people) in my newspaper.

That said, Iowans are completely insane when deciding on who to vote for. My girlfriend, a lifelong Iowa Democrat (I'm a native MN), said she would never vote for someone she hasn't seen in person. She gets a "feeling" about the person, she said. Iowans are completely and utterly spoiled politically. And like most spoiled children, usually don't make very wise decisions.

[DenisL]

After a county by county basis in Iowa, a few things are clear. Ron Paul always beat Giuliani & Hunter in EVERY county. Ron Paul won 2 delegates & they won none. Huckabee only won 17 delegates. Huckabee won MOST counties & Romney a few. But what I bet you did not know was that Ron Paul came in second in a few counties, & actually WON Jefferson county. McCain & Thompson did not win a single county. In fact I do not think McCain & Thompson came in second in ANY counties. Compared to them he did well.
This is from the CNN dot com site. (Click on New Hampshire on top of page & Iowa will pop up. THEN by looking at every county.) Ron Paul won Jefferson county & was second in a few. I have been asking on other sites the following: Any idea if the Ron Paul campaign did anything unique or special in Jefferson county or in these other counties where he also did well: Osceola, Pocahontas, Henry, Van Buren, Wapello, and Story (Ames - home of Iowa State)? If so, it might be useful for the Paul campaign to try the same in other states.

[Yogi]

My county, Johnson, where the University of Iowa is, was probably Rudy's best county. He made a couple visits here, and had virtually all of the college Republicans campaigning for him. His people were the precinct chair people.

The result? Ron Paul got 15% here with only one visit while the student body was gone on Thanksgiving break.

[hatefalseweight]

yes, there is some commentary on the forums about jefferson county. Lots of cheap newspaper ads in little local papers explaining positions over time, and active canvassing and precinct work. I think that was also the hotbed of the TM crowd though too so it may have been demographically predisposed. They noted that places like East Iowa where there is more broadband internet he did 14 pct vs 10 or less in the rural west. There is a good thread by pledgeforpaul on his precinct captain expereienc. Just a few calls over several weeks before the caucus did turn out the vote even with people he didn't remember. They won his preceninct and he was all down in the mouth thinking he was having no effec there for a while.

[natureabor]

so consistent principled integrity and voting record Ron Paul is the loose cannon, and Rudy, 911, 911, 911, going on on a limb and needing a history lesson, Guliani, isn't? Even Guliani's children aren't voting for him...in fact, I think they are voting for Obama.

[John C. Randolph]

I think that the Onion has an excellent analysis of Rudy's goals:

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/giuliani_to_run_for_president_of_9

-jcr

[Episiarch]

The media, by and large, is just like any other big set of people: a whole lot of them are lazy, some are disingenuous, some are stupid, and many just do what everybody else does.

They are following the standard assumptions that political reporters have held for a very long time. Don't expect most of them to question these assumptions. Expect them to file the same report that their colleagues do--after all, they all talked about it and agreed while having a few drinks at the bar where all the reporters hang out.

[Allegedly Allegeded]

There's a huge disconnect between the media who only care about selling advertising and real American citizens who want our country back.

Notice how the 'news' rank of the candidates and the time they're allowed in the 'debates' matches the ad spending instead of the number of votes.

PS - Allegedly, Guliani's dad was in business with the same organized crime figures that Nancy Pelosi's dad allegedly was. Why isn't the mainstream news covering this?

[Franklin Harris]

This thread is guaranteed to make all one (1) libertarians who think Rudy is a libertarian cry.

[joshua corning]

PS - Allegedly, Guliani's dad was in business with the same organized crime figures that Nancy Pelosi's dad allegedly was. Why isn't the mainstream news covering this?

Cuz this is the United States and in some ways we have a very libertarian culture that tends not to blame the son (or the daughter) for the mistakes of the father...rather we tend to judge each individual on their own merits and failures.

[Craig]

If you haven't heard already, there's been talk that either ineptness or sabotage was at work in Iowa that held Paul's vote totals lower than what they could have been. If this is true, perhaps he would have placed better.

[joe]

If Paul did place better then Fox maybe working overtime to frame the discussion and steer our minds in conjunction with forces working behind the scenes to marginalize and smear his possibilities. I sense a destructive ugly spirit behind all these attacks on Paul, the brothel, race remarks, and fear mongering to prevent real understanding of the reason why we have an economic disaster about to unfold. Paul maybe the only candidate that maybe able to avert certain overspent disaster in our economy. We are like drunks on unlimited credit at the liquor store, something has to give and I think he represents this movement towards rational policy for the first time in 35 years. I'll do whatever it takes to help him get elected, if only just to put FOX in a place they belong as well. Imagine them trying to get a scoop under a Paul presidency, that's right he just might win in NH, the synergy just seems to be growing exponentially, I'm more energized now than ever to take on this leviathan.

[Mr. X]

Plumping?

He's been reading The Economist again.

As long as he doesn't start talking about the "colour" of "aluminium," we're safe.

[Debra]

I have to shout out my delight of Ron Pauls race for the presidency. Think for just one moment how boring this year and a half of the media extravagancy of election spin. It's the best reality show on the boob tube for those who are paying attention.

I want to offer http://www.PolitiFact.com, very entertaining analysis of what they all have said with a "Truth Monitor" by each statement.

When in history has an election been so spun all over the place, both parties, with an unending war in the immediate background (for those who care). The war appears to have been put on the back burner as of late.....shout out to the military.....OOORAH.

I'm amazed at the silence over the censorship by major corporate media....makes me wonder why, you?

Be well.

[Randolph Carter]

Craig,
That is bullshit. Carry on.

[crimethink]

If you haven't heard already, there's been talk that either ineptness or sabotage was at work in Iowa that held Paul's vote totals lower than what they could have been. If this is true, perhaps he would have placed better.

AAAAAAAAHHH!

Here we go. I knew it was only a matter of time.

[Rotter]

We are like drunks on unlimited credit at the liquor store

If only life was that good!

We're more like gamblers on unlimited credit with a loan shark.

[Yogi]

The Iowa caucus system is perhaps the most tamper-proof system ever. All the votes are counted locally with reps from each candidate watching and recording the vote in each individual precinct. ~11,000 votes was what I was expecting to turn out for RP in my state. However, I was thinking there'd be 60,000 Republicans that caucused, not 100,000+. The large turnout on the Dem side inspired many Republicans to do the same. Not because they like their candidate, but because they didn't want to sit at home while their Dem friends were out picking the next president.

[joe]

I was unable to get Paul's campaign to respond to a question about how much he spent there in that period

Wait, they just submitted spending report to the FEC:

In the third and fourth quarter of 2008, the Ron Paul campaign spent...one thousand two hundred seventy-six troy ounces.

[tarran]

joe (the real one not the incoherent one) wins the thread!

[joe]

Whoa, different little-j joe.

This could get confusing, little robot-guy.

[Ali]

Also from LRC:

From Professor Ward Ciac:

"Iowa 40% dems, 40% reps, 20% indies
RP was polling about 5% of reps, 30% indies.
Say half the 20% indies vote rep, half vote dem.
(40 * .05 + 10 * .30))/ 50 = 10.0% in Iowa (he got it)

"New Hampshire 40% indie, say 30% dems and 30% reps.
RP polling about 8% of reps in NH, say polling at 30% for indies.
Say half the 40% indies vote rep, half vote dem.
(30 * .08 + 20 * .30))/ 50 = 16.8% in NH."

I have no idea who that professor is, but his model matches IA, and his predictions are a sure welcome thing by me. Call it wishful thinking, but I surely wish it (and even better).

[Edward]

Fifth place crushes sixth place!

[Ali]

Where is Eric Dondero? Eric, are you reading this now?

[joe]

Half of the indies in Iowa didn't vote Republican. A big majority of them caucused for a Democrat.

And Paul must have gotten more than 30% of the independents who caucused with the Republicans.

[J sub D]

PS - Allegedly, Guliani's dad was in business with the same organized crime figures that Nancy Pelosi's dad allegedly was. Why isn't the mainstream news covering this?

No link + No references = No credibility.

[Tom]

That said, Iowans are completely insane when deciding on who to vote for. My girlfriend, a lifelong Iowa Democrat (I'm a native MN), said she would never vote for someone she hasn't seen in person. She gets a "feeling" about the person, she said.

No offense, but I think the issue is not that she's an Iowan. It's that she's a female.

[jeff]

What the caucus showed us is that Paul is a non factor. This shows that you can't get elected based on selling your message to 23 year olds with internet connections. Coming in fifth is just a pathetic showing for someone who supposedly had this huge following.

[J sub D]

Intransitive verb, definition two: " to give support and favorable publicity to"

And I first thought it was a typo for pimping, which would have worked just as well.

[Ali]

Paul at 14% (3rd) in NH.

[kinnath]

What the caucus showed us is that Paul is a non factor. This shows that you can't get elected based on selling your message to 23 year olds with internet connections. Coming in fifth is just a pathetic showing for someone who supposedly had this huge following.

Paul took 25% in my small rural precinct. I don't think any of them were 23. Most, if not all, were middle-aged like me.

Prior to the Tea Party, Paul's campaign was almost exclusively radio ads and non-professional volunteers.

Getting 10% of the vote when the conservative Christians had a 30% or better increase in participation is no small feat.

[Otter]

PS - Allegedly, Guliani's dad was in business with the same organized crime figures that Nancy Pelosi's dad allegedly was. Why isn't the mainstream news covering this?

Covered, discredited and forgotten long ago when Rudy ran his first campaign for mayor. You don't have to be Dondero to dismiss it even if true.

[Graphite]

Here's a hint ... if you have to use the word "allegedly" twice in the same sentence, it's probably bullshit.

[TexasDem]

I was a litte surprised to see Giuliani referred to as the "highly respectable frontrunner". I think that Giuliani has lost the respect of many people over the past few months. Do we really need a president who lies and cheats?

[Mutter]

Do we really need a president who lies and cheats?

No, but we usually get one anyway.

[roland]

"What the caucus showed us is that Paul is a non factor. This shows that you can't get elected based on selling your message to 23 year olds with internet connections. Coming in fifth is just a pathetic showing for someone who supposedly had this huge following."

the media knows this also, thus the reason behind the non-invite for paul. the reason it seems only youngsters with an internet connection support paul is because ALOT of people, especially older voters believe what they see on the television. i can hear them now..."if the system was so corrupt and biased surely the dan rathers, charles gibsons, diane sawyers, katie courics, and matt lauers would hold a special presentation, wouldn't they? barbara walters isn't scared to tell the truth, if the economy was as bad as these young punks say she would surely let us know."

[TexasDem]

"Do we really need a president who lies and cheats?

No, but we usually get one anyway."

Yes, I realized after the fact that my comment didn't come across correctly. It was supposed to sarcastic

Sorry, I don't know how to use quotes on this thing.

[Spy Barbie]

Ali | January 5, 2008, 10:34am | #
Where is Eric Dondero? Eric, are you reading this now?

He's kissing neocon and socon ass at RedState.

(Directly below Donderooooooooo's 1st post is RS's own Leon H. Wolf (formerly an official on team Brownback) who is a lying, theocratic asshat. The author of that particular blog is on team Paul, btw.)

[crimethink]

TexasDem,

To quote something like

quote

you type

quote

[crimethink]

OK, that didn't come out right... the second one should have been <blockquote>quote</blockquote>

[Ayn R. Key]

Dondero is sad because his mastrubatory fantasies have lost to Mainstream Libertarian Ron Paul. He got what he wanted and found out he didn't want it.

He campaigned against libertarianism in the GOP, and Huckabee got votes as a result. He worked to swing the non-mainstream votes away from Paul, and they didn't go to mainstream neocon Giuliani, they went to non-mainstream Huckabee.

As a result of all of Dondero's hard work, we now have a Huckabee victory ... if Dondero had any impact that is.

Dondero got what he wanted, and he didn't want it. He made his bed, now he has to sleep in it with Huckabee.

[Mutter]

Yes, I realized after the fact that my comment didn't come across correctly. It was supposed to sarcastic

Texasdem, I thought it might have been, and I was going to give you the benefit of the doubt, but then I thought "hell, this is H&R after all..."

[dhex]

how nice is it that giuliani got fucked over?

so very nice!

[Nutter]

God I needed a good laugh today and here it is!

I can't wait to see Rudy battling it out with Wayne Allyn Root and Michael Jingozian for the Libertarian Party nod.

[John C Acshun jaxson the 3rd]

I remember the RP Campaign spending over $1 million just for ads in Iowa. They also had staff, the guy who chaired ( or directed or whatever they do) Pat Robertson's win, and other expenses.

Most of that was after November, though.

[Hortio]

Randolph Carter,

I hope you realize that sheep are sometimes served as lamb chops.

Step this way sir, a hot shower awaits inside.

[crimethink]

Randolph Carter a sheep? A shoggoth perhaps, but no sheep.

I'm not authorized to give details, but it's safe to say Mr Carter supports Ron Paul, silly.

[Stephen The Goldberger]

test

[Cesar]

Dondero has now truly gone off the deep end.

[What\'s the frequency, Kenneth]

Loose cannon?

[Eric Dondero]

Ron Paul's delegate total from Wyoming today?

Zero.

Mitt Romney has won big with 7 delegates.

What Doherty doesn't get, is that Fred, Mitt and Rudy are very similar, and have the same base of supporters. We Fiscal Cons are just split three ways right now.

If Romney emerges as the best of the three, We Rudy guys, and the Fred-heads I've talked too will easily switch to Mitt.

[Eric Dondero]

I'd like to see Brian Doherty work up a piece analyzing Romney's vote total in Iowa with Ron Paul's.

What's that 25.5% to Paul's 9.96%?

And Wyoming? Mitt Romney - 7, Ron Paul - 0.

[Franklin Harris]

Evidently, the new "mainstream libertarian" (excuse me, I can't even type that without laughing) meme is that Rudy Giuliani Mitt Romney is the great "mainstream libertarian" hope.

[Cesar]

Eric, read above about the weird assed voting rules.

[ColbyCo]

Eric, Ron Paul got zero because only party hacks got to choose; GOP voters were not allowed to participate. The predictable result: party hacks voted for party hacks like Romney. Big deal. Iowa didn't want Romney, neither will NH. Romney will be dead in the water by Tuesday.

[Rick Barton]

Eric Dondero:

We Fiscal Cons are just split three ways right now.

Calling Romney a "fiscal conservative" is an insult to real fiscal conservatives. Calling Rudy a "fiscal conservative" is a HUGE insult.

[Bingo]

http://www.geocities.com/modern_cincinnatus/

Never fails to make me laugh, plus the music makes a good soundtrack to Dondero's posts.

[Rick Barton]

....Now let's talk real fiscal conservatives: Only 2 of the 435 mambers of the House have voted to spend less money than Ron Paul!

http://www.ntu.org/main/page.php?PageID=117

[Cesar]

Dondero, who will be your new hero after Romney goes down to flaming defeat? Are you really going to shill for McCain?

[tarran]

Romney a fiscal conservative?

Mitt "I'll implement Hillary-care in my state" Romney a fiscal conservative?

Any man who could work for Ron Paul for so long and remain so mind-numbingly ignorant is a wonder to behold.

[Nutter]

Just for fun you can still hear this old show of Dunderheadero freaking out on Harry Browne's radio show. Much funnier than just seeing him freak out in print.

[prolefeed]

Giuliani is a big-city RINO mayor who is expected to do well in the Blue states. Small town Iowa -- not so much so. Hate the bugger, but it's way too early to write him off. If he tanks in a state like New York or New Jersey or California, then you could conclude he's toast.

[prolefeed]

Tarran -- the term "fiscal conservative" in the modern Republican party is very much a relative term. Compare Mitt to the Huckster, he seems fiscally conservative, but in my book "I'll slow down the rate of increase in federal spending" isn't a fiscal conservative, it's a less avaricious statist.

[ally kendall]

Regardless, I'm quite please that Dr. Paul is managing to take out at least one less-than-crypto fascist candidate, and if his candidacy only served to preclude a Giuliana firstladyship, it will have been an effort well-spent. Still and all, I think the real money shot is having enough delegates at the convention to cram a few solid pro-freedom, anti-war planks into the platform, regardless of the eventual nominee.

[Nutjob 66]

Wow y'all are pretty fired up about Ron Paul as evidenced by the amount of posts here. I can hardly wait to see what this place looks like after Tuesday. My prediction: all hell's going to break loose and the neocons present will be eating some crow.

[Ayn R. Key]

Dondero will happy shill for McCain, just as he is currently shilling for Romney, just as he used to shill for Bentio. Anyone except a libertarian is acceptable to Dondero.

If it came down to Huckabee v Paul, Dondero would suddenly discover that Huckabee is libertarian, and right now Dondero is very upset that tax hiking theocrat won Iowa.

If it came down to Huckabee v Paul, Dondero would find a way to describe a theocrat as socially tolerant and a tax hiker as fiscally conservative.

[disinter]

Why does a "libertarian" rag like this keep a fascist asshole like Doherty on its payroll?

[IHateRepukes]

To be honest because of the shit(bush) the republicunts did I as an Independent voter with a record of voting 3 repugs and 2 donkeys have decided I will never ever, ever vote republicants.So too bad Ron Paul you might have gotten my vote but whats hiding under that republican skin.

Don't Misunderestimate the stupidity of a fool republican/ or religious nut job again.

[Mitt Romney]

Hi, Mitt here.....Im voting for Ron Paul. I used to like John, but he walks funny & his arms are too short. Rudy tried to blackmail me to vote for him, I had dirt on his 14th divorce so he backed off. My hair is perfect. My hair is even better than Jimmy Johnsons. I a closet Democrat.

[Michael Toth]

If Paul is a "sure loser" and "eccentric loose cannon" like you say, than I have to revert to school yard etiquette and say, It takes one to know one. Now that may be childish but.... from the mouths of babes...

[uncle jr]

Covered, discredited and forgotten long ago when Rudy ran his first campaign for mayor. You don't have to be Dondero to dismiss it even if true.

The Pelosi connection was debated and discredited?

It's a matter of public record his father and uncle were mobbed up.

[Westmiller]

"allocations of primary expenditures by state," but both are blank.

Those slots are specifically for *public funding*, which limits the amount of money a candidate can spend in each state. I think only Edwards is on the public dole for his campaign. The other candidates don't (can't) use that portion of the FEC report.

It might be possible to tally expenditures by state, but frequently the money goes to a management company in a different state than the actual campaign expenditure.