Ron Paul

Ron Up, Fred Down

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That's one conclusion to draw from the new CBS/New York Times poll of New Hampshire and Iowa. Paul's at 4 percent in the Hawkeye state—tied with Surgin' John McCain—and he clocks in fourth in New Hampshire with 8 percent of the GOP vote. The RealClearPolitics average gives Paul 5.4 percent of the vote in the state.* Rival pollster John Zogby left Sean Hannity sputtering when he predicted further Paul gains:

…Zogby said that Texas Congressman Ron Paul could end up surprising the field—and "embarass a lot of the frontrunners" by wildly exceeding expectations taking 15 to 18 percent in the New Hampshire primary.

And Paul's at 7 percent in Nevada… which brings us to Fred Thompson. Two weeks ago the former senator appeared on Meet the Press and refused to endorse a Human Life Amendment to the Constitution. Robert Novak started engraving the invitations to Thompson's wake:

Thompson's comments revealed astounding lack of sensitivity about the abortion issue. He surely anticipated that Russert would cite Thompson's record favoring state's rights on abortion. Whether the candidate just blurted out what he said or planned it, in either case it reflects failure to realize how much his chances for the presidential nomination depend on social conservatives.

Is it fair that Thompson should suffer for taking a reasonable, federalist position—one that he clearly believes in? Well, yes: He's running for the GOP nomination as the dream candidate of the social conservatives. And (these guys aside) he keeps "uh"ing and "y'know, folks"ing and "we have a Constitution, you know"ing and inspiring them to check out Mike Huckabee. From Pollster.com:

*Instant caveat! Alan Keyes won 6.4 percent of the New Hampshire vote in 2000, but 1)it was a 4-way race with him as the de facto protest candidate and 2)he'd run four years earlier and scored 2.7 percent.

UPDATE: Rasmussen polls Paul as a third party general election candidate and he does about 8 times better than the LP has ever done.

NEXT: Fat Chances

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  1. Looking at the graph, Huckabee would appear to be a truly surging candidate.

  2. 2.7% for Ron Paul? Yeah, I buy that. Who did they poll, the FOX news team?

  3. Why doesn’t the lastest AP/Ipsos poll include Ron?

  4. (not that national polls are any useful)

  5. He’s polling at 50% in the Brett household. Friggin no-nothing’ wife.

  6. haha – don’t give up Brett!

  7. Money is the mother’s milk of politics. As RP got more from committed supporters, he can run more ads and be discovered by more potential voters who already think like him but didn’t know of him. This accounts for his surge.
    However, at some point, everyone who thinks like him will know of him. What percentage will that be? Since libertarians haven’t had much in the way of grassroots educational activity (the LP concentrating on politics instead), and persuasion takes a long time to convince most people to change their views, one doubts that RP can win the nomination.
    But what a great start for building a grassroots libertarian community that can build over the next four to eight to twelve years.

  8. Weigel, I knew you were an insensitive ass, and now you’ve proven it. Color-based graphs? Have you no consideration for us color-blind people? Expect to hear from…wait, is there are color-blindness advocacy group?

    Think maybe Ron’s success is causing Fred to shore up his Federalist credentials? That would be pretty cool, as Ron having an effect on GOP policy is the realistic hope for his campaign.

  9. I would have thought there would be more undecideds. That’s not a good sign for Paul.

    If he clears 10% in either contest, he beats the spread.

  10. Apparently Huckabee is “surging” in Iowa all of the sudden. They have been pushing him down our throats whether it was the “completely objective” Luntz focus group or the month of Huckbee surging and Huckabee is the dark horse stories in the MSM eventhough they had nothing to base it on except the Iowa Straw poll and his evolution denial. I think Evolution denial is the main factor supporting his surge. If these guys win by playing dumb then we are headed for another dark ages.

  11. Paul’s numbers are coming up slow. The more people hear about him the more support he’s getting. This past week has given him quite a boost, but most people are only casually interested in presidential politics at this point. Most people I know have only heard about Ron Paul from me.

    Another point I’ve read; Many Polls take their sample from “Republican Primary Voters”, using the rolls from 06 when support for the GOP was at a low. No surprise to find neocon and evangelical devotion there. However, Ron Paul is attracting support from disenchanted Republicans, independents, Libertarians, previously politically apathetics, and even centrist Democrats. In states with open primaries, and states the allow independents to vote in the GOP primary, Ron Paul could come in way above expectations.

  12. Weigel, I knew you were an insensitive ass, and now you’ve proven it. Color-based graphs? Have you no consideration for us color-blind people?

    Epi – that’s cuz Weigal (sic) is a shill for Big Crayon.

  13. Friggin no-nothing’ wife.

    Given the usual alternative (a “no-everything” wife), I wouldn’t complain.

    [Ducks. Flees to Mexico.]

  14. That link to the Novak article be no good.

    And now, it be working agin’. Never mind.

  15. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_clinton_42_giuliani_39_ron_paul_8

    Rasmussen says that if Paul declares as an independent he’s at 8% nationally as of today.

    Enough to deny the election to Rudy. MORE than enough

  16. Epi – that’s cuz Weigal (sic) is a shill for Big Crayon.

    I knew it! Along with being a shill for Big Pantone.

  17. Enough to deny the election to Rudy. MORE than enough

    And if that happens, and Paul denies the GOP the presidency, the GOP will truly be at a crossroads –will they return to sanity, or will they follow their populist, utilitarian, fear-mongering means?

    But of course, Paul said he won’t run as an independent. I wish he would.

  18. Epi – that’s cuz Weigal (sic) is a shill for Big Crayon.

    I knew it! Along with being a shill for Big Pantone.

    Tancredo: “If I do not speak out now, our world will all be black and white. Someone has to be patriotic enough to speak out for our precious right to use colors.”

  19. Excellent! 🙂

    and Shill for Big Krylon. No runs. No drips. No errors.

    Fluffy – who do you think would get the election, then? HRC? Trouble is, as we all know, that we’re dealing with two twisted peas (HRC, Ghouliani) in the same, sick, moldy, open-sored pod.

  20. I would prefer Hillary to Rudy, because I think Hillary’s brand of fascism would maintain the illusion of a nurturing nanny-state, while Rudy’s would be an out-and-out Himmlerian cannibal fest.

    And I am also a very vindictive person, and I believe in payback. The party of Bush needs payback, even if Hillary would also be a lousy President. Spare the rod and spoil the party, I say.

  21. Fluffy,

    That’s pretty much my take on it.

    But you forgot the delicious pleasure in driving Dondero the rest of the way to batshit insane.

  22. But of course, Paul said he won’t run as an independent. I wish he would.

    Ron Paul knows that he ceases to be an interesting story in the Republican primary if he opens that door even a little bit. He can be immediately dismissed by voters as Not a Real Republican – already a danger he’s facing – and by the press as irrelevant to the nomination.

    If he is considering it, he’s got every reason in the world to deny it.

  23. Fluffy and John-David – heh 🙂

    cept for DUNDEROOO, that would be a remarkable improvement if he hits “batshit insane”. And it does give cause for the question: which poster is the most out there like fucking Pluto, Dunderooo or DaveW?

    joe – excellent point.

  24. Yes, Dondero’s tears would taste very sweet.

  25. mmm. salty ham tears.

  26. Wow, I actually typed “no-nothing”. So proud.

    Brett

  27. Trouble is, as we all know, that we’re dealing with two twisted peas (HRC, Ghouliani) in the same, sick, moldy, open-sored pod.

    WTF? They’re pod people? Why hasn’t the maintstream media been reporting this? I knew it was a good idea to keep the ol’ fallout shelter stocked.

  28. Set off the Dondero signal now, Commissioner Gordon!

    Paul called Giuliani a chickenhawk BY NAME in Rolling Stone:

    http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/17323345/ron_paul_a_republican_takes_the_lead_against_the_war

  29. Also Cheney.

    And so begins a more aggressive phase of the campaign.

  30. Fluffy and John-David – heh 🙂

    Make that:

    Fluffy, John-David, VM – heh 🙂

  31. I don’t see any upside to paul running as an independent. He said he’ll go back as a congressman if he isn’t the nominee. It will be interesting to see if the GOP rewards him for his grassroots success, or punishes him for his heresy.

  32. “I would prefer Hillary to Rudy”

    Hopefully, neither of them will be running in the general election. John LeBoutillier believes Romney will be the nominee for the GOP because of the way he is running ahead in early states. He also believes Hillary is on the way down. Lisa Fabrizio, who is active in Connecticut Democratic politics is seeing lots of concern for Hillary’s candidacy. Republicans will turn out in droves to keep her from returning to the White House. She doesn’t have the charisma of Bill and has too high of negative ratings. She believes Pretty Boy John will be the nominee. He has the advantage of coming from the South. There hasn’t been a Democrat elected to the presidency since JFK. I believe that’s because “liberal” has been a bad word with a large percentage of the public ever since the Great Society. People tend to think that Southern Democrats are less liberal than other Democrats even though that isn’t true in all cases.

  33. But of course, Paul said he won’t run as an independent. I wish he would.

    Let him cross that bridge when the time comes. He’s much better off politically if he’s mucking about with the republicans. The party neocons can’t present a united front against him right now.

  34. “I don’t see any upside to paul running as an independent. He said he’ll go back as a congressman if he isn’t the nominee. It will be interesting to see if the GOP rewards him for his grassroots success, or punishes him for his heresy.”

    Ron Paul could put the scare to the Republican nominee by threatening to run as an independent if they don’t adopt some of his non-interventionist platform.

  35. Yes, Americans are sick and tired of being oppressed by the IRS, FDA, CIA, and other acronyms. We don’t want the government telling us what to eat, paying for our kids’ education, or turning our healthcare into a socialist labor camp for doctors. We are disgusted with the war secular collectivists are waging on the Christian religion (See “The War on Religion” by Ron Paul http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul148.html)
    Ron Paul will make us free! He’s gonna win! He’s gonna win!

  36. THOSE ARE NOT ACRONYMS, YOU SILLY LEG-BEFORE-WICKET ENGLISH PERSON.

    OFF TO MEDICAL EXPERIMENTS WITH YOU. CHRISTIAN MEDICAL EXPERIMENTS.

    WE HAVE TO CONVERT YOU TO EVANGELICAL CHRISTIANITY TO FREE YOU.

  37. I think that Paul is benefitting from having such a fractured field that he’s running in. In some polls, there are 4 or 5 republican candidates in double digits. This makes polling at 7% seem bigger than it would seem against someone like Hilary.

  38. Seven percent is just the tip of the iceberg, the first sign of the great awakening. All across America in the coffee shops and the barber shops, in their kitchens and in their offices, Americans are talking about Ron Paul. Children are talking about him in the playgrounds and amusement parks. Ron Paul is on everybody’s lips. His picture is everywhere. Victory will be his!

  39. Ron Paul could put the scare to the Republican nominee by threatening to run as an independent if they don’t adopt some of his non-interventionist platform.

    I don’t see any way that could work. A better plumb would be some prime time at the podium at the convention. Or would be if anybody watched conventions anymore.

  40. Huckabee scares me.
    I mean, really scares me.
    I remember watching the early debates and thinking that I hoped he dropped out soon.
    I never get my way.

  41. isn’t Keyes running in this election as well? his website seems to indicate this but i haven’t seen anything reporting that he is a candidate. he shares a lot of the anti-irs/anti-dept of edu positions as Ron Paul, but is the king of social conservatism – i can’t believe the religious right aren’t throwing their support behind him.

  42. Any movement in those “polls” is incredible.
    Dare I use the cockroach analogy. You know, for every one you see there are one-hundred in the walls.
    The MSM is trying their hardest to exterminate us “Paulites”, but it’s a losing battle. The message is multiplying us exponentially.

  43. Keyes is a mere soldier in the war against the secularists. Ron Paul is the General!

  44. The MSM is trying their hardest to exterminate us “Paulites”, but it’s a losing battle. The message is multiplying us exponentially.

    Yes! Yes! Yes! Down with defeatism! Ron Paul will win!

  45. okay, Edward, you’re scoring major points cuz:

    1) this shit you’re writing is funny!
    2) many of RP’s positions will reinforce or at least default to the socially-conservative status quo
    3) and you’re still dreamy!

  46. The MSM is trying their hardest to exterminate us “Paulites”, but it’s a losing battle.

    How are they trying to exterminate us? By giving Dr Paul free press?

    Say what you will, but if RP fails to secure the nomination, it won’t be because of the MSM. It’ll be because the rank and file of the GOP hate his guts (a likely outcome).

  47. I don’t have much of an opinion on all of the pre-horse race polling, but this thread made me realize something.

    For the first time in my life, I truly despise all of the presidential candidates in both major parties other than Ron Paul. Before, there was always at least one candidate who I’d have some glimmer of compatibility with. But now, apart from RP, has there ever been a bigger collection of asshats seeing the Oval Office?

  48. *seeking* the Oval Office, that is…

  49. Ron Paul can no longer be labeled a “long shot” candidate. He has clearly surpassed John McCain and is now a “top tier” candidate. I have created a website to support this statement.

    Please visit http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.

  50. But now, apart from RP, has there ever been a bigger collection of asshats seeking the Oval Office?

    I agree. What’s worse is, when I made a similar observation recently in conversation, no one could come up with single national political figure they thought would make a decent President.

  51. Well, since you say so, Cleaner44 🙂

  52. Out of Iraq
    And off my back
    Tax this _!_ you government hack!
    Ron Paul’s got the guts
    He’s gonna kick your butts
    You rotten lousy socialist fucks!

  53. Seven percent and climbin’
    So stop your whinin’
    American slaves
    Who don’t wanna make waves
    A tsunami’s commin’
    You can hear it hummin’
    Cuz Ron Paul
    Is carryin’ the ball!
    And the government’s gonna fall!
    Yes! Yes!
    Ron Paul! Ron Paul!

  54. You know, I liked the old Edward better.

    This Mitt Romney version is no fun at all.

    By the way, did I mention that Rudy Giuliani is a no good chickenhawk?

    No wonder that pedophile priest likes him. OK, that’s a different kind of chickenhawkery, but maybe he’s just a little confused.

  55. The tracking average that scares me the most is that of Huckabee… some are pegging him as yet another Bush-style Republican, where I am having a hard time, with the exception of his stances on social issues, differentiating him from Bill Clinton (which is not a good thing at all).

    So Paul and Huck are both rising, and the two are almost polar opposites of each other. Politics is a mad, mad, mad, mad world indeed.

  56. Hay, Eddie, whatever the new dose you’re taking is, I LIKE IT!

  57. What’s worse is, when I made a similar observation recently in conversation, no one could come up with single national political figure they thought would make a decent President.

    I’m having a hard time coming up with one, again other than RP. Of course, that goes to exactly what it takes to make a decent president. From the libertarian perspective, I’d say a healthy appreciation for long vacations. 🙂

  58. Socialized medicine is for the birds
    If the government could, it’d tax your turds
    Leave abortion to the fity states
    The same goes for homosexual mates
    Put a Xmas tree on every lawn
    A billion Christans can’t be wrong!
    Intelligent design in private schools
    To replace Darwin and atheist fools!
    Liberty is great, and you can have it all
    Get out and vote for Doctor Ron Paul!

  59. BTW, if you want to read some depressing crap, go over to lucianne.com and read the thread currently on the “must reads” about RP. I remember when Republicans at least used to give lip service to the concept of liberty. I don’t even recognize the GOP anymore, if those L.com commenters are any indication. Robert Taft is spinning in his grave.

  60. I hope libertarians learn from all this not to run under the Libertarian Party. That’s a lost cause. Run as a Republican. Take over the Republican Party.

  61. Yes! Take over the Republican party and change the name to the Ron Paul party!

    Don’t be a slave
    Choose to be free
    Come and join the RPP!

  62. ChrisO:

    Why should I worry about Lucianne.com? I have never heard of them, how influential/popular are they?

  63. crimethink-

    Where is this world of which you speak? The one where the GOP neo-cons have no influence over the MSM. I would like to go there.
    While it’s true that Ron Paul has enjoyed more free press as of late, one can hardly make the conclusion that the most recent attention balances the tilted scales. Then, of coarse, there are the very predictable barbs that are systematically thrown his way, to wit, the labels of “loon” and “long-shot.”
    One can’t expect Ron Paul supporters to be too pleased with the breadcrumbs the MSM has thrown so far.
    I do agree with you, however, that the GOP hatred is real and destructive.
    Still, I would rather look at the Ron Paul cup as half full. He can win because of his message and despite the powers that be.
    I said what I would.

  64. Edward,

    Your new tactics are much, much savvier.

  65. Giving back Nazi money
    Would be kind of funny
    Like returning candy to the Easter Bunny.
    Nazis have a right to their private schools
    They might be racists, but they’re no fools.
    Ron Paul is their friend when it comes to their rights
    That doesn’t mean he’ll fight their fights
    Against, well…you know who.

  66. Since libertarians haven’t had much in the way of grassroots educational activity (the LP concentrating on politics instead)

    Here’s Cato’s Podcast archive.

    Here’s the Mises Institute’s media archive.

    You can see reason’s own Topics archive on your screen.

    These are not ‘grassroots’, but they are increasingly well-exposed — and they are really, really good.

  67. You know, I’m not exactly an ardent Paul supporter myself (in fact, I’m actually an anarchist), but even I think Edward is the biggest fucking moron that has ever posted here. He’s giving even TLB/lonewackjob a run for his money.

  68. And what exactly are Edward’s political beliefs anyway? He comes across like a cookie-cutter liberal in one post and then sounds like a Little Green Footballs fan in the next one. Or is he just trolling for the hell of it now?

  69. I would have thought there would be more undecideds. That’s not a good sign for Paul.

    You might notice that a lot of those “decided” voters are switching candidates, pretty much all away from Thompson.

  70. My polical beliefs?

    I believe for every drop of poll that comes
    Paul’s numbers grow
    I believe that somewhere in the darkest night
    Paul’s chances glow
    I believe for everyone who goes astray, someone will come
    To show the way
    I believe, I believe

    I believe above a storm Ron Paul’s name
    Can still be heard
    I believe that someone in the great somewhere
    Hears every word

    Everytime I hear an unborn fetus cry,
    Or hear Ron Paul’s name or see the sky
    Then I know why, I believe

    Everytime I hear an unborn fetus cry,
    Or hear Ron paul’s name or see the sky
    Then I know why, I believe

    Ron Paul will win! Ron Paul will win!

  71. @Fluffy

    Rasmussen says that if Paul declares as an independent he’s at 8% nationally as of today.

    Enough to deny the election to Rudy. MORE than enough.

    Not quite. Your article also states he’s drawing most of his support from Democrats.

    Perhaps because of his position on the War in Iraq, Paul attracts more support from Democrats than Republicans. He also earns 14% of the vote from unaffiliated voters.

    It’s more likely he’d deny election to Hillary.

  72. But will he deny the election to Hillary three times before the cock crows?

  73. It’s more likely he’d deny election to Hillary.

    And may be that is why he won’t run as an independent. I would think that he thought through the independent campaign thing carefully.

  74. iih

    Ron Paul has said that he won’t run as an independent because he knows he won’t have to. Where is your faith? We don’t need nay-sayers and slackers like you on the team. Either pull your weight or get out of the kitchen. We’re cookin’ up a Ron Paul win here, and you’re in the way, Tootsie.

    Get the spices off the shelf
    We’re cookin’ up a win
    If you can’t cook, go fuck yourself
    I say it with a grin!

  75. as much as it pains me, I have to give it up to Edward.

    His prose has gotten far more elaborate since jumping on board the Paul 08 wagon. Thanks for the giggles.

  76. Warren

    There’s be a time to giggle
    When the satists wiggle and scriggle
    As they watch the bureacracy fall
    Under the axe wielded by Ron Paul!

  77. Where there must be a new (smarter) Edward.

    You who calls himself Edward, you are not all too smart after all. Where in this statement have I said that Paul has no prospects of winning?

    And may be that is why he won’t run as an independent. I would think that he thought through the independent campaign thing carefully.

    Not running as an independent also includes the possibility of winning the GOP nomination, right?

  78. Hey, Edward, why don’t you leave like you said you would?

  79. We’re all in for some ryhming abuse
    When Edward suddenly finds his muse
    His trolling all day
    with nothing to say
    leaves me wishing he was a bit less obtuse.

  80. It’s because of you that I stay, Asharak.

  81. Sixstring has a very odd ring
    For someone with so little sting
    (your second line doesn’t scan)
    So just do what you can
    Change your name from six to onestring.

  82. iih

    I misread you. Gte your ass back in the kitchen!

  83. ChrisO:

    Why should I worry about Lucianne.com? I have never heard of them, how influential/popular are they?

    If you were a Republican, you probably would have heard of lucianne.com before. It’s one of the bigger GOP ‘comment boards’, along with Free Republic. And since we are discussing Republicans on this thread, I’d say it’s relevant.

  84. I looked at Lucianne.com. It’s harping on the Ron Paul-Nazi connection. Are Nazis still very unpopular with the general public?

  85. edward does dead words
    but sixstring does quips bring

  86. If you were a Republican, you probably would have heard of lucianne.com before. It’s one of the bigger GOP ‘comment boards’, along with Free Republic. And since we are discussing Republicans on this thread, I’d say it’s relevant.

    Well, screw them.

  87. It’s because of you that I stay, Asharak.

    What’s that supposed to mean, you twit? Like I said, I’m not a Paul supporter or even a libertarian myself, so making me a target is pointless.

  88. You know, if a mental health professional ever decided to do something on Internet trolls, he or she might have a shot at a Nobel (or maybe not).

  89. Asharak,

    If you’re neither a libertarian nor a Ron Paul supporter, what the fuck are you doing here?

  90. Paul wins Repub race!
    George S, humbled, eats his words;
    Hillary trembles.

  91. Yes, Hillary’s greatest nightmare is a Ron Paul Republican candidacy. He combines her husband’s charm and charisma with the piercing intellect of a Milton Friedman. His slightly mussed hair and hard-as-steel good looks make Romney look like a manikin. Ron Paul has the female voted wrapped up.
    The Democrats will try to smear him with the Nazi connection and keep harping on that Nazi money he didn’t give back. But take a look at the Nazi demographic. It’s an older crowd, and older folks vote.
    Once Blacks realize that he didn’t himslef write that racist stuff in his newsletter, they’ll be wooed by his unwavering commitment to the gold standard.
    Indeed, Hillary Trembles.

  92. OMFG, this has got to be one of Hit & Run’s weirdest threads.

  93. Edward | November 14, 2007, 3:58pm | #
    If you’re neither a libertarian nor a Ron Paul supporter, what the fuck are you doing here?

    I came here for the waters.

  94. Edward submerges
    in Reason’s calm, soul-soothing
    waters of freedom.

  95. Romney’s kicking butt, but that’s going to come to a screeching halt in the South.

    30% of Republican primary voters will not consider voting for him because of his relgious denomination, but he’s kicking butt in northern, midwestern, and mountain-west states. You do the math.

    We’re looking at a long race, which can only help the second-tier candidates looking to catch up.

  96. Beside educating folks on the ethical and material superiority of liberty, Dr Paul’s campaign is hurting the effort of the warmonger, Giuliani to secure the GOP nomination. Paul’s arguments for US non-intervention expose Giuliani’s ridiculous saber rattling for what it is.

  97. “I would prefer Hillary to Rudy, because I think Hillary’s brand of fascism would maintain the illusion of a nurturing nanny-state, while Rudy’s would be an out-and-out Himmlerian cannibal fest.”

    I say bring on the cannibal fest! As Sideshow Bob said: “Your guilty consciences may make you vote Democratic, but secretly you all yearn for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king!”

    Damn if that ain’t Giuliani!

  98. Edward,

    If you’re neither a libertarian nor a Ron Paul supporter, what the fuck are you doing here?

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