Third Parties

And the Georgia Gubernatorial Race and the Libertarian Party?


Those encouraging Zogby polls–the most recent of which had Georgia LP gubernatorial candidate Garrett Hayes at 9.1 percent? Sorry, Zogby, though I'm sure you'll stumble from failure to failure with pockets bulging. The LP website has Hayes right now at 3.9–not quite within the 3 percentage point margin of error you promised.

NEXT: Webb Slips, Santorum Done

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  1. Georgia is a 100% Diebold state. If the GOP needs the votes more than the LP does, the LP doesn’t get to keep them.

    Them’s the breaks!

  2. Nice site the LP has up except that they don’t list all the LP candidates in Ca. I voted for more LP candidates just in my district/county/etc than they have listed for the entire state.

  3. Perhaps you misunderstand “margin of error”. It’s not a promise, it’s a statistical statement of sampling error. A 3% margin of error means there’s a 95% confidence that the actual results will be within 3% of the sampled result.

    If you conduct 20 polls with a 3% moe, having one actual result come in outside the margin of error is completely expected.

  4. The formula for the standard error used for polling applies to a candidate with 50%. In particular, it isn’t even close for a candidate polling .5%. Think of the typical LP candidates polling–.5% and the error reported at +-3%. Well, there is a 0 percent probability that a minor party candidate will get less than zero percent.

  5. Has Zogby taken down the “Kerry wins, check back tomorrow for details” page yet?

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