Have a Coke and a Smile
Remember that study from a few weeks back that reportedly said that women who drank soda pop got fat and developed diabetes from their cola jones?
Well, it's all media spin that was abetted by the study's authors, says the invaluable Steven Milloy of Junkscience.com in the Washington Times. In fact, the study
reports women who consistently drank one or more regular soft drinks per day during those four years actually gained slightly less weight than women who consistently drank less than one soda weekly in that period.
More interestingly, Milloy points out that one of the coauthors was involved in a 2003 study that contradicted the new study. Curiously, that 2003 study goes unmentioned in the new one.
Whole thing here.
Update: Tim Lambert of the blog Deltoid writes to tell me that it's Milloy who's full of junk science. In a post on the matter, he takes issue with Milloy's characterization of the study and also writes
Milloy even accuses the authors of "scientific misconduct" for not mentioning another study that Milloy alleges contradicts their results. But that other study was not about soft drink consumption but about overall sugar consumption. The new study suggests that consuming sugar in a drink where it is more rapidly absorbed may increase the risk of diabetes. This is hardly contradicted by results that suggest that sugar intake including that in solid food is not a risk factor.
Whole thing here. Lambert also points to this critique at Crooked Timber of Humanity, which includes an interesting thread including comments from Jim Henley of Unqualified Offerings.
Even More Update: Here's a Tech Central Station piece by Jon Robison that slams the JAMA study. A snippet:
A closer look at the findings shows that even the proposed associations between the variables are questionably weak at best. After correcting for confounding factors, the relative risk of developing diabetes in women drinking the greatest vs. the least amount of sugar-sweetened beverages was 1.32. Epidemiologists generally agree that relative risks less than 2 should be ignored or at least viewed with extreme skepticism, particularly when there is conflicting research available.
Whole thing here.
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When will people realize that the bulk of medical studies are crap. The AMA finally suggested that medicine should be based on science and not anecdote in the 1970s. That's about four centuries after real scientists came into existence. It's always saddened me that so many science writers are MDs. MDs are not scientists, they are mechanics for the human body. I must admit that medicine has been getting more scientific since the '70s, but the field is still rife with "junk science". Until all MDs (and science writers) have the distinction between correlation and causation burned into their brains, the bogus studies (and reporting of them) will continue to plague us.
What do monsters eat for lunch?
Things
What do monsters drink for lunch?
Coke.
Why?
Moderation in all things sayeth he.
'cept red wine, of course.
Bill-
In all fairness, I find that many (but admittedly not all) medical studies seem to distinguish between correlation and causation. However, the press frequently reports on the study without making that distinction.
You might ask why they even release the study in the first place if they only have correlation but not yet causation. The reason is simply that correlation is often a good first step in an investigation. You start with some anecdotes. You ask "Hmm, is there something going on?"
They look for correlation. Correlation won't definitively prove anything, but it is a good filter for eliminating a lot of bad ideas. So they get a correlation. Then they play with some other variables and they notice that the correlation remains robust even when controlling for other factors. Still doesn't prove anything, but it means that this idea has gotten farther than 95% of the other ideas that occur to a working scientist as he's thinking about his subject.
So it's published to say "Hey, look everybody, here's an interesting idea that's survived the first pass, it might be worth investigating." And there's a good reason for doing that (aside from the obvious "publish or perish" imperative): Whether or not there's actually causation (not just correlation), one way or the other the truth is more likely to come out if it's tested by multiple people with different tool kits and approaches.
There's just one problem: Even though this investigator has made all of the necessary caveats and is only putting forward the idea as a plausible hypotheses worthy of further investigation, the press reports it as though some sort of causation was established, bastardizing everything that the good medical researcher was reporting.
Don't believe me? When I was in college I was involved with a project that went into space (briefly, just collecting data before parachuting to the ground for recalibration and refinement). The school sent press releases to the hometown papers of all of the people involved with the project. My hometown paper picked it up, and did a story so riddled with inaccuracies that had I not been mentioned by name I never would have recognized the project.
Isn't anyone the least bit leary of something published by moonies?
Good point.
Government is often the cause of bias and distorted reporting. With big government, when there might be a problem-something amiss, there exists an opportunity for some folks to get the government to give them other folk's money to allegedly fix the alleged problem. The result is that there is a net pressure to publicize bad news and ignore good news.
Compare this dynamic to private sector fixes-no such pressure. In fact, more publicity, especially the sensationalist kind might spur unwanted competition.
I strongly suggest consideration of Daniel Davies' comments on Milloy and Tim Lambert's follow-up. (Unless you want to take madpad's approach -- see above -- which gets you to just about the same place but more quickly.)
alkali,
Thanks. 🙂
thoreau,
Good points, but there are researchers that overpromote "preliminary" reseach for fame and/or more research funding. (Of course, this is not exclusive to medical research.) This is related to Barton's comment.
Nonetheless, I should have emphasized that the media is more to blame than the researchers.
Lynch,
I remembered the study, and government food regulation and NGO health-nazis are definitely libertarian topics of discussion. Maybe your on the wrong board?
joe's law of web criticism:
Truth Squads" that operate from an indentifiable ideological perspective are never as honest as their target.
joe,
If you shange it from a "law" to an "observation", and change "never" to "often not", I'm with you.
What matters is not the truth of the study, the important thing is whether John Edwards can make twelve jurors believe what he says the study means. I've collected a file on recanted medical advice, it has gotten to the point that I assume the opposite on just about every thing I hear about medicine.
joe's law of web criticism:
"Truth Squads" that operate from an indentifiable ideological perspective are never as honest as their target.
So much for MoveOn.org, then.
Aaron,
Lambert makes some good points, but the Phillip Morris stuff is irrelevant. How one person, corportation, or group misuses statistics has no bearing on anyone else. The problems of epidemiology are not small relative risks. The human body and its environment are terribly complex. There are many "hidden variables" involved in any epidemiological study. Small relative risks should often be ignored because the differences represented can easily be caused by these hidden variables. My background is in physical science, and I can say from experience that hidden variables can be a problem for relatively simple experiments. It seems to me that epidemiology has a far greater challenge when trying to isolate variables. This is such a difficult task that I believe that small relative risks should often be ignored, at least until further studies come along that confirm the result.
Not wanting to be an ass about this, but isn't it decent evidence that it's not possible to drink a load of regular Coke without putting on weight, the fact that they make Diet Coke?
"Epidemiologists generally agree that relative risks less than 2 should be ignored or at least viewed with extreme skepticism, particularly when there is conflicting research available."
This has also been debunked by Lambert. It's a fascinating story.
I agree with Rick Barton 100%.
Nick Gillespie said: Remember that study from a few weeks back that reportedly said that women who drank soda pop got fat and developed diabetes from their cola jones?
Answer: no. Sorry, Nick, we dont' spend as much time as you do on inconsequential human endeavors. Do you actually alter your life based on what you read? Does this study -- or any of the others Reason has cited -- have anything to do with just getting on with life?
One wonders what the editorial function of Reason is. Subscribers in a renewing position surely want to know.
I became aware of how the scientific endeavor really works about a year after starting my PhD work. 1) make your project look really important, it helps if you identify a problem that spells the end of humanity, (it's not a lie it?s a small exaggeration). 2) let them (nsf, nih, dod, ect) know you have made quick progress but to your chagrin the problem is much worse and more challenging (translation; more expensive) than previously thought. 3) repeat 1 and 2. This is how the ?CO2 is killing the planet? folks are getting gobs of money in the face of obviously flawed models. In the private sector there is rarely money for hype.
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