Reason-Rupe Poll: Obama Leads Romney, 52-45 Percent; Gary Johnson Pulls 6 Percent

President Barack Obama will beat challenger Mitt Romney 52 percent to 45 percent in November's election, and the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson will garner 6 percent of the total while pulling votes from both major-party candidates.

Those are some of the findings of the latest Reason-Rupe Poll, which surveyed 1,006 adults in September 13-17. Full results of the poll are online here.

About 61 percent of respondents said that wealth disparities are an acceptable part of the American economic system and not something the government should try to fix. "One of the reasons they may believe that," explains Reason's director of polling, Emily Ekins, "is that 59 percent think that individuals have an equal opportunity to succeed in this country."

Ekins also notes that while pundits decry legislative gridlock in Congress, 45 percent of Americans want the federal government to pass fewer laws, compared with around one-third who think it should be more active. "However," she notes, "there is one law that voters overwhelmingly would like to see passed - and that's a law to audit the Federal Reserve."

For full results and more analysis, go to the Reason-Rupe Poll homepage.

Approximately 1.45 minutes long.

Produced by Joshua Swain.

Downloadable versions of the video are below. Subscribe to Reason TV's YouTube page to receive automatic notification when new material goes live.

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  • ||

    "Reason-Rupe Poll - Obama Will Beat Romney, 52-45 Percent; Gary Johnson Pulls 6 Percent"

    These numbers do not add up.

  • Scruffy Nerfherder||

    You've got to account for The Voting Dead as well.

  • Ice Nine||

    Have you seen any poll in the last month that made much sense?

  • Loki||

    I noticed that too. I know there are some rounding errors involved, but 52+45+6 = 103. That would mean that all 3 numbers are rounded up to the nearest whole number, which still doesn't make any sense to me, but I guess that's why I'm not a pollster.

    Also, what's with always rounding to the nearest whole number? Is that the least significant figure? If so I don't think this poll is accurate enough to mean much.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Americans usually give one hundred ten percent.

  • John||

    Even rounding up doesn't explain it. Suppose the numbers were 51.5 and 44.6 and 5.8 and those are rounded up to 52, 45 and 6. Okay, but 51+44+5 = a hundred. What happened to the decimal points? The raw numbers still add up to over a hundred.

  • Sudden||

    These numbers do not add up.

    Watch the video:

    The 52-45 lead for Obama is on a strict Obama vs. Romeny vs. "Other" poll.

    When GJ is added, it goes to 49/42/6.

  • ||

    52+45+6 = 103

    And no undecided....

    I am thinking the +8 DEM weighting is the cause.

  • ||

    I see no one bothered to RTFP. Those are from two different sets of numbers. The totals with Johnson are:

    Barack Obama/Joe Biden 49%
    Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan 40%
    Gary Johnson/Jim Gray 6%

  • Sudden||

    Gary Johnson Pulls 6 Percent

    And how much you wanna bet he doesn't crack 1% of the popular vote when the actual election rolls around? I'd bet my menagerie of exotic endangered species and my collection of blood diamond encrusted monocles that he doesn't crack 2% in any given state.

  • ||

    Okay, I will bet my entire army of child laborers that he will crack 2% in at least two states, one being New Mexico and the other a minor league relief pitcher to be named later.

  • Bardas Phocas||

    I keep telling the Team Red folks they need to suck more libertarian dick. But no, they keep calling cops on me.
    Fuck em.

  • Palin's Buttplug||

    Aside from genetics all Americans have equal opportunity from the beginning.

  • Trespassers W||

    This is the worst threadjack EVER.

  • R C Dean||

    Your polling seriously shows that Obama is on his way to, if not quite a landslide, then an overwhelming victory on par with what he got in 2008 when he outspent McCain nearly 2-1, the kind that allows him to claim a "mandate"?

    Sounds literally incredible to me, but maybe that's just the confirmation bias talking.

  • John||

    Maybe they are right and Gallup and Rasmussen are wrong. But I doubt it. This poll has consistently been an outlier. I don't think anyone reasonably believes that Obama will do better this year than he did in 2008. And if this poll is true, he would.

  • PapayaSF||

    Yeah, I don't get it either. Obama in 2008 had such a groundswell of "hope" and "change" and "first black President," plus a lot of anti-Bush feeling, plus a new economic crisis. He was going to shut Guantanamo and the Muslim world would love us.

    Now, all that's pretty much gone. Even in San Francisco, Obama 2012 signs are pretty rare. I see nearly as many 2008-vintage Obama bumper stickers, and altogether they are a tiny fraction of what I saw in 2008. Unemployment has stayed high, especially among blacks and young people. Some black ministers are telling their congregations to not vote for Obama because of the gay marriage thing. Independents have swung heavily for Romney. Tens of millions of Tea Partiers are charged up.

    So how can Obama get 52% this time? Is Romney that hated and feared? I really don't get it.

  • Brandybuck||

    It's because Romney just can't get anyone excited about voting for him. As simple as that. Just about any other GOP candidate could beat this race hands down, but not Romney. Once again the Republicans have nominated the most boring man in America.

  • PapayaSF||

    Is Romney really any less exciting than McCain? And given the state of the country and the world over the last four years, maybe "not exciting" is a plus.

  • PapayaSF||

  • Trespassers W||

    I still see more Obama 2008 stickers than Obama 2012 stickers. And that's in Chicago.

  • NoVAHockey||

    that would also flip the House. and i can assure you we're not holding fundraisers based on that assumption.

  • Tim||

    Do you think Romney ever calls up Obama on the secure line and asks him; " How the heck am I supposed to throw this race when you keep fucking up?"

  • The Hammer||

    Do you think Obama ever calls up Romney on the secure line and asks him; "How the heck am I supposed to throw this race when you keep fucking up?"

  • Tim||

    Whoa dude, it makes sense when you think about it.

  • John||

    That is a good question Hammer. I wonder sometimes if Obama really wants to be President anymore. He seems to have no interest in actually doing the job or much of anything beyond playing golf and going to fund raisers. I really wonder if he is just being browbeat into the whole thing by his wife and Valerie Jarrett.

  • Tim||

    Michelle orchestrated the whole thing in order to seize control of the Federal school lunch program? Fiendish!

  • John||

    Michelle likes living in the White House and flying on Air Force One.

  • R C Dean||

    Let's face it: even with his ridiculously inflated post-Presidency earnings, she ain't getting a billion a year household budget ever again.

    Well, adjusted for inflation, anyway.

  • John||

    The Bush family cost something like 57.8 million a year to support in the White House. The Obamas cost a billion. How the hell is that not a scandal?

  • Palin's Buttplug||

    The Bushpigs cost $1.6 billion in 2008.

    http://littlegreenfootballs.co.....ke_Outrage

    Do you ever get anything right?

  • Tim||

    WHat is that, a Satanic worship site?

  • John||

    LGF? God you are pathetic.

  • T o n y||

    John is confusing the figure given for the British government support of the Royal Family.

    You can almost visualize the manufactured outrage taking hold. Even though the Obamas were $200 million cheaper than the Bushes, somehow it doesn't feel right for the Obamas to be enjoying all those creature comforts.

  • Tim||

    Don't pick a fight with a woman who can crack a walnut placed between her butt cheeks.

  • John||

    Droids don't tear people's arms out of their sockets when people question their expense accounts.

  • PapayaSF||

  • John||

    I have heard the same rumors. Who knows if they are true. But if they are, the polls are clearly political. So riddle me this, if it turns out that Romney wins, is the Reason Rupe poll political?

  • Lost_In_Translation||

    of course its political. one would hope it would be libertarian political though...

  • PapayaSF||

    I think the polls are off sometimes because of politics, and sometimes because of bad assumptions. Many polls seem to assume that the party identification and turnout in the previous presidential election will apply this time. I don't think so. Many Democrats are dispirited, many Republicans are enthused, and many independents are disappointed in Obama. I think this election will be more like 2010 than 2008.

  • T o n y||

    Yeah all the major polling firms are in collusion for a political outcome, but a WorldNetDaily conspiracy theory has legs.

  • ant1sthenes||

    If he expects to lose, what the hell is the point of dicking with polls? To pre-emptively delegitimize the next presidency by creating a disparity between real election results and predicted results headed in, which will be attributed to, variously, latent racism, Diebold, and Republican voter id laws being the second coming of Jim Crow?

    Oh, yeah, I guess that makes sense.

  • ||

    I don't know. If all they have to go buy is that the Obama's are looking for a house in HI it's kinda weak.

    Buying a house in HI could easily be explained as him wanting an "Hawaian White House". He may be so confident in the possibility of reelection that he's trying to 1) snap up a bargain in today's depressed market plus 2) getting a shitload of renovations paid for by the governemnt (for security, don't you know?)

  • John||

    It is pretty thin gruel. The only substance to it is the "rumors" that Obama's internals are terrible. That rumor has been floating around for a while now. Who the hell knows if it is true.

  • mgd||

    Of course he does. His ego is too large and brittle to sustain losing an election. Just look at the depths he stooped to in previous elections to win.

  • John||

    Fair enough. But he seems to have no idea what he wants to do if re-elected.

  • Palin's Buttplug||

    Obviously, Reason/Rupe have a liberal bias like all the other polls except Rasmussen.

  • ||

    I have a new ballot plan which I'll institute after I take over the world and paint everything orange. Each county will print up a ballot for every eligible voter at the time. When the polls close on voting day, any ballot that has not be filled out will be understood to be a vote for "None of the above." Any office won by NotA will go unfilled. Any bureaucrats who would work for the NotA administration will be summarily fired. MANDATE, BITCHES!

  • The Hammer||

    NotA! NotA! NotA!

  • T o n y||

    So are the extra 3 percents from another plane of existence?

  • Brandybuck||

    No, those extra three points come from the extra seven states Obama is counting on to push him over the top.

  • T o n y||

    The longer this 57 state thing persists, the smarter Obama must be. Hasn't he made a more recent dumb comment?

  • Calidissident||

    That comment. You didn't make it

  • 16th amendment||

    This is sad. I don't want Obamacare. It has severe marriage penalty. If you're single and make 199k then no medicare tax of 3.8% on investment income. But if two people making 199999 get married, their combined income is about 400k, and 150k of their income is subject to the medicare tax. The rate is 3.8% on investment income and 0.9% on salary income. The discrimination against married people is quite stark. Yet no one talks about it.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    If it makes you feel any better none of the candidates are going to repeal ACA.

  • Lost_In_Translation||

    marry a woman making 0 then?

  • Sudden||

    They have names ya'know.

    We call them trophies.

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