HIT & RUN BLOG

Americans like the police, but older, more affluent, white, conservative Republicans really like the police. Fully 72 percent of Americans say they have a favorable view of the police, and 24 percent have an unfavorable view, according to the latest Reason-Rupe poll. However, favorability has declined 6 points since the question was asked in April earlier this year. It’s possible greater public awareness of police militarization in the aftermath of the Ferguson, MO protests has undermined public confidence.

While majorities of Americans have a favorable opinion of the police, intensity of support varies widely across groups. Most striking are differences across race/ethnicity.

Fully 80 percent of white Americans have a positive view of the police, with 43 percent who are very favorable. However only 52 percent of black and Hispanic Americans share this favorable view, and only 2 in 10 have a strongly favorable opinion of the police. Forty-three percent of African-Americans and 46 percent of Latinos have an unfavorable view of the police, compared to 17 percent of Caucasians.

Democrats (66%) and independents (60%) are also considerably less favorable of the police compared to Republicans (85%). However, different racial compositions within the political parties explain part of the difference. Only 55 percent of nonwhite Democrats like the police, compared to 75 percent of white Democrats, and 86 percent of white Republicans.

While liberals tend to be more distrustful of the police than conservatives—fiscal conservatives are themselves divided. Using the Reason-Rupe typology, social conservatives (51%) are more likely than libertarians (41%) to have a strongly favorable view. Only 30 percent of liberals and 35 percent of communitarians share conservatives’ strongly favorable attitudes toward the police.

Older and wealthier Americans are also more likely to like the police. For instance, 83 percent of seniors are very favorable toward the police, and fully 50 percent are very favorable. In contrast, 60 percent of 18-29 years are favorable, and 30 percent are very favorable. Similarly by income, 83 percent of households making more than $90,000 a year have a favorable view, including 47 percent with a strongly favorable opinion. However, considerably fewer (65%) among those making less than $45,000 annually share a favorable view of the police, including only 30 percent with a strongly favorable view.

A standard statistical procedure to simultaneously account for basic demographic characteristics finds that being Caucasian, higher income, and from the South are the strongest statistically significant predictors of support for the police, followed by being a Republican, and a woman.

As to be expected, those who have a favorable view of police officers are most likely to think officers are generally held accountable for misconduct (61%), only use lethal force when necessary (59%), and believe the criminal justice system is fair to all races (51%). Conversely, those with a negative view of the police are far less likely to believe police officers are held accountable (22%), use lethal force only when necessary (22%), and say the justice system lacks racial bias (26%).

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf) and crosstabs (xls). 

Senators Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Rand Paul (R-KY) have teamed up this year to introduce several bills aimed at reforming the nation’s criminal justice system. The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds Americans are receptive to several of the proposed reforms.

77% Favor Eliminate Mandatory Minimums for Nonviolent Offenders

The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds that 77 percent of Americans favor eliminating mandatory minimum prison sentences so that judges have the ability to make sentencing decisions on a case-by-case basis. Seventeen percent oppose this policy change, and 6 percent don’t have an opinion.

Support for eliminating mandatory minimums has increased 6 points since the poll first asked this question in December 2013.

Returning sentencing discretion to judges is popular across partisanship, race, age, income, and education. For instance, 81 percent of Democrats support eliminating mandatory minimums, as do 75 percent of independents and 73 percent of Republicans, including 69 percent of tea party supporters. Similarly, 77 percent of white Americans, 80 percent of African-Americans, and 73 percent of Hispanics favor eliminating mandatory minimum prison sentences for nonviolent offenders.

73% of Americans Support Restoring Voting Rights

Americans also support restoring voting rights to nonviolent drug offenders who have served their sentences by a margin of 73 to 24 percent.

Restoring voting rights is also widely popular across demographic groups, although Democrats are more supportive. Eighty-one percent of Democrats favor allowing nonviolent drug offenders who have served their sentences to vote and 17 percent oppose. In contrast, 66 percent of non-partisan independents and 64 percent of Republicans agree; 28 and 32 percent oppose, respectively.

Solid majorities across race/ethnic groups agree, but to different degrees. Fully 91 percent of African-Americans support restoring voting rights, compared to 66 percent of Hispanics and 72 percent of Caucasians.

Americans Sharply Divided Over Sealing Court Records

Americans are sharply divided on whether to allow nonviolent drug offenders to petition a court to have their records sealed once they’ve served their sentences, making them inaccessible to the public without a court order, with 47 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed.

Significant partisan and demographic differences emerge on allowing nonviolent drug offenders to petition a court to have their court records sealed.

Slim majorities of Democrats (53%) and non-partisan Independents (51%) support this reform, but a majority of Republicans oppose (59%). Notably, tea party supporters are no more likely to oppose (54%) than regular Republicans.

White Americans oppose allowing nonviolent drug offenders to petition a court to have their court records sealed by a margin of 53 to 43 percent. Conversely, a majority of black (56%) and Hispanic (64%) Americans favor this reform, while only a third oppose.

Men are slightly more likely to favor than women: 51 percent of men favor, 43 percent oppose; inversely, 43 percent of women favor and 53 percent oppose.

The two youngest generations, Generation X and the Millennials support allowing court records to be sealed, while the two older generations—the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation—oppose. In fact 57 percent of Americans under 45 favor allowing nonviolent drug offenders to petition to have their records sealed and 39 percent oppose. However, by age 45, majorities of Americans begin to oppose this type of reform: 57 percent oppose and 38 percent favor.

Notably, majorities of both white and nonwhite Americans under 45 support this reform (54 and 59 percent respectively). Only white Americans over 45 oppose allowing court records to be sealed, 61 to 36 percent. Older nonwhite Americans are evenly divided at 46 percent.

Politicians may find criminal justice reform to be a winning issue for them going forward for two primary reasons. First, support is relatively stable within age cohorts, meaning that younger Americans support criminal justice reform and will likely continue to do so even as they age. Second, racial differences largely disappear across young white and nonwhite Americans, meaning that support for reform is broadly popular.

More from Reason’s Lauren Galik on criminal justice reform, Annual Privatization Report 2014, Criminal Justice and Corrections.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls). 

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While 73 percent of Americans say most members of Congress do not deserve to be reelected this November, Reason-Rupe finds that 53 percent are yet still satisfied with the candidates running for Congress in their own districts. However, only 9 percent report being “very satisfied” while 44 percent are “somewhat satisfied.” Thirty-four percent are unsatisfied (20% somewhat, 14% very), while 12 percent don’t have an opinion.

In keeping with America’s federalist tradition, Americans are more supportive of candidates closer to home. Fifty-seven percent say they are satisfied with candidates for state level offices, and a third are dissatisfied. Slightly more, 62 percent, are satisfied with candidates for local level offices, and a quarter are dissatisfied.

Strong Democratic (60%) and Republican (56%) partisan voters are about equally likely to report satisfaction for their districts' House and Senate candidates for the upcoming midterm elections. Only 3 in 10 report dissatisfaction with state-level candidates.

However, independent and independent-leaning Republican voters are least likely to be happy with candidates running in their districts. Instead, 53 percent of non-partisan independents and 48 percent of independent-leaning Republican voters say they are dissatisfied with the House and Senate candidates running in their districts. Independent-leaning Democrats are similar to strong Democrats with only 30 percent dissatisfied.  

Similarly at the state-level, pluralities of Independents and independent leaning-Republicans are dissatisfied (roughly 46%) with state level candidate options, while about 4 in 10 are satisfied. Conversely, majorities (6 in 10) of strong partisans are satisfied with state-level candidate choices, and 27 percent are dissatisfied.

Independents are more supportive of local-level candidates. Both partisan and independent leaners are satisfied with candidates for local level offices—roughly 60 to 70 percent. About a quarter are dissatisfied.

Only at the local level do a plurality (48%) of non-partisan independents report satisfaction with candidate options, with a third dissatisfied.

Taking a closer look at who these dissatisfied voters are reveals they tend to come disproportionately from independent and independent-leaning Republican voters, are more male (57%), and are more likely to favor smaller government and free market solutions to complex economic problems.

These results comport with oft-found survey results that Americans dislike Congress but like their own member of Congress. They also demonstrate that candidates running closer to home receive higher marks than federal-level candidates.

These data also suggest that Republican candidates must deal with more unpredictable voters, as independent-leaning Republicans are considerably less happy with their candidates than independent-leaning Democrats and partisan voters.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls). 

The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds 70 percent of Americans favor legalizing over-the-counter birth control pills and patches without a doctor’s prescription, 26 percent oppose such a proposal, and 4 percent don’t know enough to say. There has been a slight uptick in support for OTC birth control, rising from 66 percent in May of 2013. Moreover, Reason-Rupe finds that women across income groups highly support legalizing OTC birth control at about the same rates.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists have announced their support for such a proposal arguing it could improve contraceptive access and use and decrease unintended pregnancy rates. Republicans too have been pushing for this reform, with Democrats surprisingly reluctant.

Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal raised the idea in 2012 in his widely read Wall Street Journal op-ed:

“As an unapologetic pro-life Republican, I also believe that every adult (18 years old and over) who wants contraception should be able to purchase it. But anyone who has a religious objection to contraception should not be forced by government health-care edicts to purchase it for others. And parents who believe, as I do, that their teenage children shouldn't be involved with sex at all do not deserve ridicule.”

Planned Parenthood and some Democrats have pushed back, expressing concerns that legalizing OTC birth control would require women to pay for it, rather than have it paid for by their health insurance premiums. For instance, Rebecca Leber explained:

"For low-income women, cost can be what’s most prohibitive. Under the Affordable Care Act, the pill and other forms of contraception count as preventative care, which means insurance covers them completely—without any out-of-pocket expenses."

Planned Parenthood recently released an ad in North Carolina warning: “Just when insurance is finally covering the cost of prescription birth control, Thom Tillis [the Republican] says no—women should pay the $600 dollars a year…he’s turning the pill into yet another bill.” To be clear, Democrats are not necessarily opposed to legalizing OTC birth control, but rather they want to ensure women don’t have to pay for it.

Reason’s own Elizabeth Brown has countered:

"Affordability isn’t the only factor in making something accessible. Those championing the contraception mandate as a way to increase access assume everyone always has insurance coverage. What about undocumented women? Or those between jobs and temporarily uninsured? What about young women who can’t let their parents know they’re on the pill? Or domestic abuse victims who want to keep this information from their husbands? These are just a few of the situations in which a woman would find OTC pills much more accessible and affordable than the prescription-only kind, even if those prescription pills came with no co-pay."

Despite costs concerns, OTC birth control legalization receives strong support from women across income groups at roughly the same rates. Among women making less than $30,000 a year, 65 percent support legalization and 35 percent oppose. In the middle, women making between $30K-$60K a year support the proposal 70 to 29 percent. And again, among women making more than $60,000 a year, 67 percent support and 32 percent oppose legalizing OTC birth control.

Men too support legalization, 71 percent to 21 percent, similar to women, 68 to 30 percent.

In addition, support for legalization is high across race and ethnicity. Seventy-two percent of Caucasians, 73 percent of African-Americans, and 61 percent of Hispanics say OTC birth control should be legal

Legalization has bi-partisan support as well. In fact, Republicans and Democrats support it at roughly the same level (65% and 69% respectively) with Independents even more in favor (74%).

Elite debate over the issue has trickled down to some degree, with libertarians (75%) and conservatives (71%) more in favor than liberals (64%) and communitarians (62%). (Political groups identified using the Reason-Rupe three-question screen).

Despite concerns over the cost of OTC birth control, strong majorities across income groups favor the proposal. For instance, 64 percent of Americans making less than $30,000 annually support legalization as do 69 percent of those making more than $100,000.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls) 

The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds that a solid majority—66 percent—of Americans favors conducting air strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. While 52 percent oppose sending ground troops to Iraq, 58 percent believe sending at least a small number of troops (24%) or even a large number (34%) will be necessary to successfully combat ISIS.

While Politicians often wish to avoid discussing trade-offs, the Reason-Rupe poll asked Americans how they would like to pay for military against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Somewhat predictably, two groups emerge: 35 percent say cut non-entitlement federal spending, another 34 percent say raise taxes on wealthy people. Another 8 percent say we should raise taxes on all income groups, 6 percent want to borrow the money, and 4 percent want to cut entitlement programs to pay for military action.

If federal spending had to be cut to pay for military action, Americans say they would first cut social safety net programs (19%) like food stamps, unemployment benefits, and Medicaid, another 17 percent say they would cut infrastructure and transportation spending. Nine percent would cut government-funded science and medical research, 7 percent would cut entitlement programs, 3 percent would cut education, 2 percent would cut veterans programs. In fact, a total of 8 percent actually volunteered another answer that was not offered on the survey: cutting Congressional salaries. Another three percent said there were literally no programs that could be cut. One middle-aged man from Philadelphia said “none of the programs” could be cut because “they are all vital to our survival.” Twelve percent offered a variety of other smaller programs to cut, and another 19 percent didn’t know what to cut.

Overall, these data reflect a predictable pattern—Americans want other people to bear the costs of various government activity, either in form of taxing rich people or cutting social services for low-income individuals.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls). 

The latest Reason-Rupe survey used a three-question screen to glean Americans' predispositions toward government. Many Americans are unclear which ideological label best describes their views about government, and many feel the traditional labels don’t fit them. For instance, some may feel they agree with Republicans on economics but with Democrats on social issues. Or others may agree with Democrats on the role for government, but side with Republicans on social issues.

Consequently, Reason-Rupe asked three questions to measure Americans’ preferred level of government involvement in economic and personal affairs respectively:

1. Please tell me which of the following statements comes closer to your own opinion: We need a strong government to handle today's complex economic problems; or, people would be better able to handle today's problems within a free market with less government involvement.
2. Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view?
3. If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a larger government providing more services?

Reason-Rupe identified five political groupings according to the following rubric:

• Conservative—19%: Those who favor smaller government, free market solutions, and government promoting traditional values.
• Middle—35%: Provided mixed responses that did not consistently fit with one of the other four groups.
• Libertarian—16%: Those who also favor smaller government and free market solutions, but say government should not promote a particular values set.
• Liberal—16%: Those who favor strong government to problems and a larger government providing more services, and also say government should not promote a particular values set.
• Communitarian—14%: Those who also favor strong and larger government providing more services, but favor government promoting traditional values.

To be sure, these typologies are different than respondents’ self-described views. Reason-Rupe found that 28 percent of Americans self-identify as conservative, 24 percent as moderate, 15 percent as liberal, 5 percent as libertarian, 10 percent as progressive, 12 percent as something else, and 6 percent did not know.

Certainly, using only three questions to categorize people’s political views has its limitations. However, the benefit of using this particular three-question screen is that these are commonly asked questions and can be more easily included on surveys on a consistent basis.

Americans are becoming increasingly skeptical that strategic US military interventions abroad won’t eventually backfire. The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds that 55 percent of Americans oppose arming Syrian rebels in efforts to fight against ISIS, while 35 percent support such action.

One reason Americans oppose sending weapons to the rebels may be that they believe there’s a 78 percent chance those weapons will eventually be turned around and used against American soldiers or US allies.

Public reluctance to arm Syrian rebels to fight ISIS may be indicative of a broader hesitancy to be as involved in the Middle Eastern region. Reason-Rupe finds only 28 percent of Americans want to increase US military presence around the world. Another 36 percent want to decrease American global military presence, and another third are content with the status quo.

Perhaps one reason Americans aren’t more supportive of expanding US involvement is disillusionment with US handling of the 2003 Iraq War. Only 14 percent believe the war actually reduced the threat of terrorism; another 38 percent think it instigated even more terrorism. Forty-five percent think the Iraq war had little effect protecting US citizens from terrorist threats.

Foreign policy hawkishness cuts across demographic groups and party lines but is certainly more pronounced among Republicans. In fact, Republicans are nearly twice as likely as both Democrats and independents to favor increasing US military presence abroad (41% versus 20% and 26% respectively). In reverse, Democrats and independents are almost twice as likely as Republicans to want to decrease military presence (42% and 39% versus 25% respectively.)

Consistent with findings that young people are the only group to oppose air strikes against ISIS, Americans under 34 are about half as likely (21%) as Americans over 55 (37%) to desire an expanded global military presence. Instead, 41 percent of younger Americans want to reduce US military presence abroad compared to 27 percent of those over 55. A third of both groups support the status quo.

Opposition to arming Syrian rebels, however, is generally non-partisan. Sixty-one percent of Republicans, 58 percent of independents, and 51 percent of Democrats oppose the US providing weapons to rebel groups to fight ISIS.

Again, younger people are more skeptical of intervention. Only 28 percent of 18-29 year olds support arming Syrian rebels, and 62 percent oppose doing so. In contrast, 45 percent of seniors favor providing weapons and 47 percent oppose.

Americans are beginning to believe there are limits to the US’s ability to engineer favorable outcomes through military interventions abroad. There are fears that weapons we provide to assumed allies will be the very weapons we are fighting against in the future. There are also serious concerns that our past military strategies have not achieved their desired outcomes, and have not reduced the threat of terrorism.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls). 

According to the latest Reason-Rupe poll, 43 percent of Americans approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, while 50 percent of Americans disapprove. When asked specifically about President Obama’s handling of foreign policy, the percentage of those who approve drops to 38 percent, while a majority of Americans—51 percent—disapprove of his handling of foreign policy. These results remain largely unchanged since August.

A third of political independents (includes partisan leaners) say they approve of both President Obama’s job performance and his handling of foreign policy. Roughly 54 percent disapprove of his handling of both.

Democrats are more likely to favor Obama’s overall job performance (76%) than foreign policy handling (65%). About a quarter of Democrats disapprove of President Obama. Only about 12 percent of Republicans approve of either the president’s overall job performance or foreign policy.

Young people still like the President: 49 percent of Americans between the ages of 18-34 approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President. This number slightly declines to 40 percent who approve of his foreign policy. Americans over 55 are nearly equally likely to both disapprove of the president’s foreign policy and overall job performance (56% disapprove, 36% approve).

Significant perception differences remain across race and ethnicity. About 3 in 10 white Americans oppose Obama’s general job and foreign policy handling, while 6 in 10 disapprove. Among African-Americans, 84 percent approve of general job performance and 73 percent of his foreign policy. Among Hispanics, 57 percent approve of Obama overall and 49 percent of his foreign policy.

When asked to compare President Obama to his predecessor George W. Bush, only 35 percent prefer Obama’s foreign policy. Twenty-eight percent think the two have handled foreign policy about the same, and 33 percent think Obama has done a worse job than Bush.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls). 

Americans have a bit of collective amnesia when it comes to remembering their stance on the Iraq War when it first began in 2003. The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds that 51 percent of Americans report they were opposed to the Iraq War back when it started in 2003; 39 percent say they supported the war, 6 percent report not having had an opinion, and 5 percent can’t remember.

However, a Pew Research Center poll conducted in March 2003, as the Iraq War began, found fully 72 percent of Americans supported the war, 23 percent were opposed, and 5 percent didn’t have an opinion.

Among the 39 percent of Americans who remember supporting the Iraq War in 2003, 61 percent are in favor of returning ground troops to Iraq to combat ISIS. Among those who say they opposed the 2003 Iraq war, 66 percent oppose sending ground troops to Iraq.

Only 26 percent of Democrats say they recall supporting the 2003 Iraq War when it began and 65 percent say they had been opposed. However, 59 percent of Republicans report having supported the war while 33 percent say they had been opposed to it.  A plurality (41%) of independents say they had opposed the war, 36 percent say they had supported it, and 23 percent either couldn’t remember or didn’t have an opinion.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls). 

Despite promises to improve America’s foreign policy handling, only 35 percent of Americans think President Obama has done a better job than his predecessor George W. Bush, according to the latest Reason-Rupe poll. Another 28 percent say Obama has done no better nor worse than President Bush, and 33 percent say he’s done an even worse job.

One age group stands out in their evaluation comparing Obama to Bush—and it’s not today’s college-age kids. Americans who were between the ages of 18-29 in 2003 when President Bush led the country into war in Iraq are the most likely group (48%) to say President Obama has done a better job handling foreign policy than Bush. In contrast, only a third or less of virtually every other age group agree—even today’s youngest cohort who hadn’t yet turned 18 in 2003.

Research shows that young adults are most politically impressionable in early adulthood, particularly the ages of 18-29. Americans who were in this age group in 2003 and witnessed the national debate and invasion of Iraq in their formative years continue to be much more likely to favor President Obama’s approach to foreign affairs compared to his predecessor.

Increased support for Obama’s foreign policy is not simply a product of youth. Today’s very youngest adult cohort, those who were under 18 in 2003, are no more likely than older age groups to view Obama’s foreign policy as an improvement. Instead, those who were 18-29 in 2003 (and now between the ages of 30 and 40) remain an outlier in their preference for Obama over Bush.

These data suggest Americans born between the mid 70s and 80s may carry with them into the future distinctive foreign policy views, uniquely shaped by the rhetoric and actions of President George W. Bush.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including poll toplines (pdf)  and crosstabs (xls).