HIT & RUN BLOG

Both Democrats and Republicans have criticized the president’s proposal to slow the growth of Social Security by using chained CPI to calculate benefit increases, but President Obama may have the public on his side: 57 percent favor “changing the way benefits are calculated so they increase at a slower rate,” when they learn about Social Security’s financial problems, according to the May Reason-Rupe poll. Thirty-four percent oppose such a change to Social Security.

Majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents favor using chained CPI, upon learning that Social Security currently pays out more than it collects in taxes and without changes, the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted in 2033 requiring a benefit reduction of 25 percentor more. Younger people overwhelmingly support this change, while a plurality of seniors and retirees oppose it.

The January Reason-Rupe poll also asked about using chained CPI to calculate Social Security benefit increases, but did not include information about Social Security’s financial situation. Without being told this, 55 percent of Americans oppose using chained CPI to calculated benefit increases while 39 percent support it. Majorities of each political group oppose it, but a majority of Americans under 35 support it.

These data suggest that even without necessarily knowing about Social Security’s financial situation, young Americans are open to entitlement reform. However, upon learning about possible future benefit cuts, a majority of non-retirees also support changing the way Social Security benefits are calculated.

Although the public may support President Obama’s proposal to change the way Social Security benefits are calculated, the president’s health care law enjoys only tepid support. Only 32 percent of Americans say they liked the health care law when it was passed and still like it today. Seven percent liked the law when it was passed, but like it less now. Meanwhile, 45 percent disliked the health care law when it was passed and still dislike it. Four percent of Americans say they disliked the law when it passed, but like it more now.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted May 9-13 2013 interviewed 1003 adults on both mobile (503) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.7%. Princeton Survey Research Associates International executed the nationwide Reason-Rupe survey. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here. Demographics and detailed tables are available here.

President Obama has proposed expanding government preschool programs, however according to the latest Reason-Rupe poll, only 37 percent of Americans favor raising taxes to create a universal preschool system, while 61 percent oppose. When asked who should be “primarily responsible” for paying for preschool, 57 percent of Americans think parents should pay and 32 percent want the government to be responsible for paying.

Not surprisingly Republicans overwhelmingly (80 percent) oppose a proposal to raise taxes to create universal preschool, 60 percent of Independents agree, and Democrats are evenly divided at roughly 48 percent. Similar shares of each political group hold parents primarily responsible for providing preschool for their children.

Underlying assumptions about who should be primarily responsible for preschool predicts support for the proposal to raise taxes to establish universal preschool. Seventy-eight percent of Americans who think parents should be primarily responsible for preschool oppose the government-run universal preschool proposal. In contrast, 65 percent of those who say government should be primarily responsible support the universal preschool proposal.

While most Americans say parents should be primarily responsible for paying for preschool, a majority of liberals, college-aged Americans, and a plurality of non-white women, and unmarried women say government should be primarily responsible. Similarly, a majority of these groups, and partisan Democrats, favors the proposal to raise taxes to fund universal pre-school.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted May 9-13 2013 interviewed 1003 adults on both mobile (503) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.7%. Princeton Survey Research Associates International executed the nationwide Reason-Rupe survey. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here. Demographics and detailed tables are available here.

The latest Reason-Rupe poll finds President Obama enjoys a 50 percent approval rating, 7 points higher than his 43 percent disapproval. However, this isn’t much different from a similar time period in President George W. Bush’s presidency. In May 2005, the year after his re-election, Bush’s approval rating hovered around 48 percent. Also in May 2005, the NBC/WSJ poll found 52 percent of Americans said the country was headed in the wrong direction. Today, slightly more, 57 percent say America is headed in the wrong direction, 34 percent say the country is headed in the right direction. Slightly more Americans approve of the president’s handling of the economy, 47 disapprove and 45 percent approve. Americans continue to overwhelmingly disapprove of Congress (75 percent) while 16 percent approve.

While a majority of women approve of President Obama’s job performance (52 to 40 percent), men are evenly divided at 47 percent. However, when taking into account race and ethnicity, 78 percent of non-white women approve of the President compared to 40 percent of white women. On the President’s handling of the economy, 65 percent of non-white women approve of Obama, compared to 31 percent of white women. This indicates the gender gap on presidential approval is instead more highly correlated with race rather than gender. Sixty-two percent of young Americans under 35 approve of the President, compared to 44 percent of their older peers. Taking race and ethnicity into account, a majority a both young white (52 percent) and non-white (73 percent) Americans approve of the president. In sum, age and race tend to correlate more strongly than gender with presidential approval.

Self-identified liberals (56 percent) and Democrats (52 percent) are among the few groups in which a majority says the country is going in the right direction. In contrast, 77 percent of non-partisan Independents say the country is going in the wrong direction, as well as 79 percent of Republicans. Interestingly, despite significantly higher unemployment rates among younger Americans, they are more likely (42 percent) than older Americans (30 percent) to say the country is headed in the right direction. A majority of Americans in the Midwest (62 percent), South (61 percent), and Northeast (54 percent) say the country is headed in the wrong direction, but Americans in the West are evenly divided with 49 to 44 percent.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted May 9-13 2013 interviewed 1003 adults on both mobile (503) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.7%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here. Demographics and detailed tables are available here.

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May 2013 Poll Results Overview

Americans Want Senate to Drop Gun Control, But Oppose 3D-Printed Guns

Reason-Rupe poll finds public does not want marijuana users to go to jail; supports gay athletes; opposes plastic bag bans and tax increases for universal preschool; believes the government is likely to do more harm than good on domestic terrorism

President Barack Obama has vowed to keep pushing for new gun control measures and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the failed gun vote in the Senate was “just the beginning.” However, the latest Reason-Rupe national poll finds just 33 percent of Americans feel the “Senate should debate and vote on gun control legislation again,” while 62 percent want the Senate to “move on to other issues.”

Earlier this month the world’s first fully 3D-printed gun was successfully fired and Reason-Rupe finds Americans are torn on 3D technology.  A substantial 62 percent of Americans say people should be allowed to use 3D printers in their homes. Among those who say Americans should be allowed to have 3-D printers in their home, a majority (53 percent) say Americans should not be allowed to print their own gun parts, 44 percent say they should.

When asked about the manhunt for the Boston Marathon bombers, 31 percent of Americans say it makes them more likely to want a gun in their homes, 9 percent are less likely to want a gun and 54 percent say their views weren’t impacted by the events.

Almost half, 49 percent, of Americans fear the Boston bombings will cause the government to “overreact and enact policies that do more harm than good. ” Conversely, 42 percent trust the government to develop policies that help “avoid similar acts of terror.”

The Reason-Rupe poll conducted live interviews with 1,003 adults on mobile (503) and landline (500) phones from May 9-13, 2013. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percent. Princeton Survey Research Associates International executed the nationwide Reason-Rupe survey.

Support for Pending Marijuana Bill, Almost No Support for Jailing Users

A majority of Americans, 52 percent, support a bill that has been introduced in Congress that would prevent the federal government from prosecuting people who grow, possess, or sell marijuana in the states that have legalized it. Forty-two percent oppose the bill.

When asked which approach “government and law enforcement should take toward someone found smoking marijuana or in possession of a small amount of marijuana,” the public’s desire for overhauling America’s drug laws is clear. Just 6 percent of Americans say people found with marijuana should go to jail. In contrast, 35 percent say people smoking or in possession of marijuana should not be punished at all; 32 percent say they should be fined; and 20 percent favor rehabilitation and counseling.

Support for Gay Athletes

Following NBA player Jason Collins’ public announcement that he is gay, a quarter of Americans, 25 percent, believe having an openly gay athlete is a positive development for society. Seventeen percent say having an active athlete announce he is gay is a negative change for society and 57 percent feel it makes no impact.

An overwhelming number of Americans—87 percent—say their support would not change (77 percent) or would increase (10 percent) if their favorite athlete announced he or she is gay. Just 12 percent say they’d be less likely to support their favorite athlete after learning he or she is gay. 

Opposition to Plastic Bag Bans

From San Francisco to Austin, city and county governments are banning various types of shopping bags. Yet, 82 percent of those polled say consumers and stores should determine the types of shopping bags available, while 15 percent say the government should decide. 

Sixty percent of Americans oppose banning plastic grocery or shopping bags, 37 percent approve of a plastic bag ban.

Parents, Not Taxpayers, Should Pay for Preschool

President Obama has proposed expanding government preschool programs, however only 37 percent of Americans favor raising taxes to create a universal preschool system, while 61 percent oppose. When asked who should be “primarily responsible” for paying for preschool, 57 percent of Americans think parents should pay and 32 percent want the government to be responsible for paying.

Americans Want Less Spending, More Independents in Congress in 2014

Three-quarters of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing and 57 percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction. With so much dissatisfaction, the new Reason-Rupe poll finds 38 percent of Americans would like to see more independent and third-party candidates win congressional seats in the 2014 midterms, 31 percent prefer more Democrats and 23 percent of Americans would like more Republicans elected next year.

No matter who is elected to Congress, Reason-Rupe finds 54 percent of Americans want the federal government to spend less money next year, 23 percent favor spending the same amount as this year and 16 percent would like to increase federal spending next year.

Half, 50 percent, of Americans approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing, while 43 percent disapprove. The president loses support on his handling of the economy, where 45 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove.

Support for Chained CPI, Health Care Law Loses Popularity

Both Democrats and Republicans have criticized the president’s proposal to slow the growth of Social Security by using chained CPI to calculate benefit increases, but President Obama may have the public on his side: 57 percent favor “changing the way benefits are calculated so they increase at a slower rate,” while 34 percent oppose such a change to Social Security.

The president’s health care law is losing public support, however. Only 32 percent of Americans say they liked the health care law when it was passed and still like it today. Seven percent liked the law when it was passed, but like it less now. Meanwhile, 45 percent disliked the health care law when it was passed and still dislike it. Four percent of Americans say they disliked the law when it passed, but like it more now.

This is the latest in a series of Reason-Rupe public opinion surveys dedicated to exploring what Americans really think about government and major issues.  This Reason Foundation project is made possible thanks to the generous support of the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation. 

According to the latest Reason-Rupe poll, a majority of Democrats (51 percent) say immigrants help grow the US economy, whereas a majority of Republicans (53 percent) say immigrants harm the economy; Independents are evenly divided. Republicans are also more likely to say immigrants take jobs from native-born Americans (67 percent), 56 percent of Independents agree, compared to 42 percent of Democrats.

Not surprisingly, far more Democrats favor legal residency and path to citizenship (66 percent) for unauthorized immigrants than Republicans (41 percent). Independents side with Democrats in favor or residency and a citizenship pathway (55 percent).

Interestingly, Democrats and Republicans are equally supportive of maintaining the status quo for high-skilled and low-skilled visa annually distributed. In fact, neither Democrats nor Republicans reach a majority in favor of raising visa caps for high-skilled or low-skilled workers. This is surprising because Democrats support reform for unauthorized immigrants, but are less willing to support more open immigration policy for future immigrants who seek to enter the country legally.

Republicans who believe immigrants strengthen the economy are actually slightly more willing than like-minded Democrats to raise the cap on high-skilled visas (66 percent to 55 percent). Roughly half of both groups favor raising the cap for low-skilled visas.

Americans Who Agree On Immigration’s Benefits Support Reform

After controlling for perceptions of immigration’s economic impact, partisanship’s influence on policy preferences diminishes substantially. If partisans assume immigrants strengthen the economy, strong majorities of both Republicans and Democrats support legal residency and a path to citizenship for unauthorized workers. In contrast, equal numbers (and pluralities) of Republicans and Democrats favor deportation if they say immigrants harm the economy. 

Read the full report here: Reason-Rupe Feb 2013 Full Immigration Findings

Nationwide telephone poll conducted February 21-25 2013 interviewed 1002 adults on both mobile (502) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.8%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here. A full analysis of the poll’s immigration results can be found here. 

According to the latest Reason-Rupe poll, 70 percent of Americans think the 11 million unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States should be allowed to stay. A majority (55 percent) also believes unauthorized immigrants should eventually be allowed to apply for citizenship if they meet certain requirements. Twenty-seven percent favor deporting unauthorized immigrants back to their home countries, 11 percent support offering temporary legal residency and 4 percent favor offering legal residency without a path to citizenship.

Americans are less supportive of making it easier for future immigrants to enter the country legally: 40 percent favor raising the visa caps for high-skilled and low skilled workers; 44 percent want to maintain the status quo, and 11 percent want to lower the number of visa caps distributed annually.

Support for offering residency and pathway to citizenship is correlated with partisanship, education, and youth, detailed here. However, partisan differences are attenuated when accounting for Americans’ assumptions about immigrants’ economic impact, detailed here.

Interestingly, there is little partisan disagreement when it comes to easing the path for new high- and low-skilled workers seeking visas.

Read the full report here: Reason-Rupe Feb 2013 Full Immigration Findings

Nationwide telephone poll conducted February 21-25 2013 interviewed 1002 adults on both mobile (502) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.8%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here*. **A full analysis of the poll’s immigration results can be found* *here**.* 

According to the latest Reason-Rupe poll, a majority of Americans (55 percent) support offering legal residency and an eventual path to citizenship to unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States if they meet certain requirements. This number is far higher if one says immigrants help the economy: 73 percent favor residency and path to citizenship. Americans who perceive immigration’s economic benefits also support raising visa caps for high skilled and low skilled future immigrants (52 percent). Overall, 40 percent of Americans support raising visa caps for high skilled and low skilled future immigrants.

In contrast 27 percent of Americans support deportation of unauthorized immigrants. Among those who say immigrants hurt the economy, a plurality (45 percent) support deportation, while 34 percent favor residency and a citizenship pathway. Americans skeptical of immigration’s benefits are also 20 points less likely to favor raising the visa cap for high-skilled and low-skilled workers with only about 30 percent in support.

Overall, Americans are evenly divided over whether immigrants grow (40 percent) or hurt (40 percent) the US economy; few (15 percent) believe it has no impact. A majority (52 percent) worries immigrant take jobs away from native-born Americans, 42 percent do not share this concern. These economic worries are highly predictive of support for reform but may also be indicative of individuals’ underlying feelings toward newcomers.

The Young and More Educated Perceive Immigration Benefits

Younger Americans and those with more education are more likely to perceive benefits from immigration.

A majority of college graduates (53 percent) and those with post graduate degrees (68 percent) share optimism of immigration’s economic benefits, but a little more than a quarter of those with high school diplomas share this view. Those with postgraduate degrees are 17 points more likely to favor a path to citizenship than high school graduates.

Majorities of millennials believe immigrants grow the economy, but only about 35 percent of those aged 35 and older agree. Less surprisingly, millennials are more likely to favor residency and path to citizenship than those over thirty (60 percent to 53 percent).

White Americans are more skeptical of the economic benefits of immigration. Forty-six percent of Caucasians think immigrants hurt the economy and 60 percent say immigration takes jobs away from native-born Americans. Latinos disagree: 56 percent say immigration helps the economy and 59 percent say immigrants do not take away jobs. African-Americans are in the middle: a plurality (47 percent) say immigrants bolster the economy but 52 percent say they also take jobs away from native-born Americans.

There are also regional disparities over whether immigrants strengthen the economy. Americans in the Northeast and West are far less concerned about the effects of immigration than are Midwesterners and Southerners. Pluralities in the Northeast (48 percent) and West (43 percent) say immigrants bolster the economy and are evenly divided over whether immigrants take away jobs. However 57 percent of Midwesterners and 60 percent of Southerners say immigrants take away jobs. A plurality of those in the Midwest (45 percent) worry immigrants harm the economy, while the South is evenly divided. 

Read the full report here: Reason-Rupe Feb 2013 Full Immigration Findings

Nationwide telephone poll conducted February 21-25 2013 interviewed 1002 adults on both mobile (502) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.8%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here. A full analysis of the poll’s immigration results can be found here. 

According to the latest Reason-Rupe poll, few Americans see much reason to oppose eVerify when it is first presented to them as a federal government database that employers use to ensure they hire workers eligible to work in the US. However, once costs to small businesses are introduced, support for eVerify plummets, even among those with the greatest anxiety over immigration.

Fully 79 percent of Americans, including majorities of all political groups, support requiring employers to check with a federal government database that verifies the legal immigration status of any job applicant they consider hiring. They say this even when they are aware that both native-born and foreign-born applicants would be in the database. While 73 percent of Democrats favor eVerify, their opposition is double that of Republicans (22 percent to 10 percent).

When respondents learn their own name would be kept in the database, opposition rises from 17 percent to 28 percent, but support still hovers around two-thirds. However, 58 percent of respondents would oppose eVerify if business owners were required to pay $150 for every worker they are considering hiring. Republicans are especially sensitive to this cost with opposition jumping 53 points from 10 percent to 63 percent. Democratic and Independent opposition also rises from roughly 18 percent to 57 percent.

Even a majority of those who fear immigration’s impact would oppose eVerify if its costs fell upon employers and small business owners. In fact, among the 27 percent of Americans who favor deportation of all unauthorized immigrants, support for eVerify drops from 88 percent to 33 percent once these costs are considered. This means even those less enthusiastic about immigration could be persuaded to oppose eVerify once they learn about the costs. It also suggests that one need not be convinced immigrants benefit the economy and do not steal jobs to oppose eVerify.

Among the 8 in 10 Americans who initially supported eVerify, half changed their minds upon learning that eVerify could cost employers $150 per person. These Americans tend to be more Republican, older, church-going protestants, and more likely to support the tea party movement.

As a benefits-only proposition, Americans support eVerify as a method to check the legal status of workers in the US. However, they do not support shifting the financial burden of border enforcement onto the shoulders of businesses.

Reason-Rupe Feb 2013 Full Immigration Findings

Nationwide telephone poll conducted February 21-25 2013 interviewed 1002 adults on both mobile (502) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.8%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here. A full analysis of the poll’s immigration results can be found here. 

A recent Pew Research poll has found that only 26 percent of Americans trust government to make the right decisions, 73 percent say they have little confidence in government. A majority (53 percent) also say government is a threat to Americans’ rights and freedoms. In fact this is the highest number Pew has found since first asking the question in 1995.

These concerns are shared by majorities across racial/ethnic groups, age, education, gender, and political identity. However, some groups are more likely than others to trust government including millennials (35 percent), Democrats (38 percent), African-Americans (38 percent), and Latinos (44 percent).

Overall ratings of the federal government have declined since President Obama first took office, with the largest shift coming from Democrats. In 2009, 61 percent of Democrats gave the federal government favorable ratings, but that number has shrunk to 51 percent, Independents have declined from 35 percent favorable to 27 percent. Republican favorability has hovered around a quarter.

Interestingly, the closer government is to home, the higher its favorability rating.  Sixty-one percent have a favorable view toward their local government, 52 percent like their state government, compared to 33 percent who have a positive opinion of the federal government. In line with these findings, 69 percent say the federal government should only do what cannot be run at the local level.

Read Pew's findings here and here.

Early Thursday morning, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) concluded his nearly thirteen hour-long filibuster holding up the confirmation vote of new CIA Director John Brennan. Paul used the filibuster to encourage the Obama administration to answer questions about the government’s drone program used to target American citizens suspected of being terrorists.

Rand Paul is not alone in his concern about the government’s drone program and the assassination of Americans without due process. According to a recentReason-Rupe poll, 57 percent of Americans say it is unconstitutional for the president of the United States to order the killing of American citizens who are suspected of being terrorists. Thirty-one percent believe it is constitutional. Mike Riggs writes about these results here.

Fifty-nine percent of Americans are also concerned the government may abuse its power when it comes to its use of drones to kill American citizens who are terror suspects.

Strong majorities of Republicans (65 percent) and Independents (64) agree it is unconstitutional for the president to order the killing of American citizens who are suspected of being terrorists. In stark contrast, only 44 percent of Democrats agree, while 40 percent believe it is constitutional. This may explain why only one Senate Democrat, Sen. Ron Wyden, joined Republican Senators Flake, Cruz, Thune, Rubio, Lee, Toomey, Johnson, Barrasso, and Scott on the Senate floor Wednesday.

Nevertheless, majorities of all political groups are concerned the government may abuse its power using drones. Sixty-five percent of Republicans are concerned, compared to 53 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of Independents.

Young Americans are also far more likely to say it is unconstitutional for the president to order the killing of American citizens without due process. Eighty-two percent of 18-24 years olds and 62 percent of 25-34 year olds says it’s unconstitutional. However, only about half of those over age thirty-five agree that its unconstitutional while about 35 percent say it is constitutional. 

Nationwide telephone poll conducted February 21-25 2013 interviewed 1002 adults on both mobile (502) and landline (500) phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.8%. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results found here. Full methodology can be found here.