The Volokh Conspiracy
Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent
Trump Partially Pauses "Liberation Day" Tariffs
But 10% tariffs are still being imposed on nearly all countries, without any letup. And we are still moving ahead with our lawsuit challenging them.

Today, Donald Trump partially paused his massive new "Liberation Day" tariffs. However, a whopping 10% tariff on nearly every nation in the world is still going into effect immediately, along with an enormous increase on tariffs for Chinese goods (up to 125%). And the additional massive "reciprocity" tariffs are only paused for 90 days, not cancelled.
For these reasons, the Liberty Justice Center and I are still proceeding with our planned lawsuit challenging these tariffs on behalf of US businesses that import goods from the affected countries. We will not stop unless and until this unconstitutional usurpation of power is ended completely, and permanently.
We are close to finalizing our list of clients and hope to be able to file the case soon.
I explained why the "Liberation Day" tariffs are illegal in greater detail here.
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who would have thought the guy that thought obamacare was like ordering people to eat broccoli would be leading the resistance?
I like broccoli. Maybe that's why I thought that meme was stupid. That and the merits were so weak.
Anyway, he's being consistent. That's on some level notable since so many people on that side -- down to Anthony Kennedy, who now apparently is a big Trump supporter -- are not so much.
I hate Broccoli, Brussels Sprouts, Rutabegas, Squash, Beats, Zuchinni, Asparagus, in fact, Salad of any kind, only "Vegetables" I can tolerate are Corn & Potatoes, (I know, not "Vegetables" not green or disgusting enough) I like Tomatoes, but only in the form of Catsup or Pizza Sauce, and how about this for disgusting,
Broccoli dipped in Mayonnaise,
I've heard it was a Medieval form of torture
Frank
People have probably said this before, but abandon the olive green mush overboiled stuff. Asparagus needs 3 minutes then out. 2 if thin. It should be bright green with the raw edge taken off. Slather with salted butter.
You sound like a friend, who claims to be allergic to chlorophyll: He hates the taste of everything green.
He gets his necessary dose of veggies in the form of smoothies, which being pre-'chewed', he can pour straight down his throat bypassing his taste buds...
Me, I'll basically eat anything except balut.
The Mad King, Santa Pause, folds yet again, lol.
I wasn't supportive of the LD tariffs in the way they were implemented and so I am glad and can take some pleasure in him pausing it. I don't get the philosophy of disagreeing and bashing someone endlessly for doing something. Then when they 'reverse' position bashing them for not having the guts to go through with it. In addition to being detached from any constructive reality it just seems like a recipe of being miserable all the time.
Mad Kings bluster, caprice and flip flopping =\= creditable reversing.
If he learned something in the process of his temporary reversal, it would be darn swell, and he should receive endless kudos and backslapping for gaining knowledge and rationality.
But it's darn unlikely that he learned anything. He sure as heckfire won't sell it that way. But actions usually speak louder than words, so he still gets full credit for reversing his policy, even if only for a little while, and while claiming that it is a great policy and that he knows what he's doing.
Anyone else notice this sentence?
"I don't get the philosophy of disagreeing and bashing someone endlessly for doing something."
It's not. It's a 90-day "pause." He's trying to have it both ways while continuing to damage the U.S.'s credibility by being an unreliable ally or trading partner. Hurray for consumers for 90 days; bad for the country for years to come.
Even the liberal cable news talking heads are admitting that Trump might be the greatest president of all time.
Seriously, what is the point of posting something like this?
Really, it's just the flip side from the people who claim everybody agrees he's ultra-Hitler, and that people just deny it because they WANT ultra Hitler.
No it’s not. EllaWilson didn’t say that “liberal cable news talking heads” secretly understand that Trump is the greatest president ever; they said that they admitted it, which no one could be dumb enough to believe.
That's the only disagreement; whether he's the greatest or just great.
But even those who disagree about that still agree that his face should be on money and mountains.
Real, commonly used money, not like the susan b. anthony coin or the two dollar bill. It probably would just be easier to replace whatever is on all of the money now with trump's face.
Yo-yo tariffs are almost as stupid as nonsensical tariffs. Upending the global trade economy is a dangerous negotiation strategy. Trump tanked the stock market and destroyed the US global goodwill for nothing. No company is going to invest in brining manufacturing back to the US when the rules are changing randomly.
Trump is profoundly stupid.
+1
And he brags, like an adolescent, about other countries coming to "kiss my ass". I'm embarrassed to have him as our President.
I'm embarrassed to have a Catholic greaseball like yourself in my country. You people belong back in Italy stuffing your faces with pasta, not squatting in a Protestant nation.
ZZZZZZZZZ.
If you are going to be a troll, at least be entertaining.
Somebody call for a Troll?
Heh
Do protestants avoid pasta? (aside from during lent)
No, but they're way classier than Catholics.
The Reformation was literally for lower class people. But whatevs. Rock out in your bedazzled "Blessed" shirt. Or Klan hood. (C'mon, say "papist" one time for me...)
+2
There is no such thing as goodwill between nations. Country X can treat Country Y well or badly for years and Country Y will still decide how to respond based on cold hard calculations. Not based on how much it 'loves' or 'hates' Country X.
Case in point China (whether you believe in lableak or batburger theory) knowingly facilitated the release of a deadly global pandemic to the rest of the world that caused unprecedented damage and the world continues to pretend that China is a power worthy to stand and continue to interact with the rest of the global community.
While sudden changes in policy can cause disruptions, they can also gain benefits. They are ultimately just another tool with risks and rewards that depend on how you use them.
Case in point China likes to change policies back and forth...including ones that affect foreigners like in the investment sector at the drop of a hat, and yet people still go along with it and foreign companies have to be dragged kicking and screaming not to continue to invest in China despite often massive losses. Now it might be preferable to use policy changes sparingly. But a Uturn here or there need not be ultimately damaging.
Its neoliberal dogma that globalized free trade is inevitable and any flirting with any other direction is folly and will turn the entire world against you. But thats not necessarily true.
Case in point. China is essentially the neomercantilist empire everybody fears trump will make the US with barriers against foreign competition Trump can only dream of. And most of the people squawking about the US don't seem to care. It certainly hasn't caused a shortage of countries and corporations that want to suck up to them. And funny enough critics that are so aghast at the US pulling away from free unfettered trade somehow have no problem with this.
Why in the world would your go to be China rather than countries we really could be said to have longstanding special relations with such as Canada, the UK or Israel?
Let's do the UK then.
We have had a "special relationship" with the UK since 1945, when it was mutually convenient to ally against the Soviet Union. Prior to that we had had various wars against the UK, and a vigorous and ultimately successful (for us) commercial rivalry. So "close" was our "special relationship" with the UK duruing the two world wars, that we leant passively on our muskets for the first 63% of the first one, and the first 37% of the second one, leaving the Brits to get one with it. Since WW2, the UK - now a small and weak power - has bleated "special relationship" loudly and frequently to encourage the Anglophiles in this country to prop them up.
In short, notwithstanding the "ties of blood" and of culture between the UK and a substantial section of the American public, the long term relationship reflects precisely what AmosArch implied - mutual interest, waxing and waning according to circumstance.
Part 2
The French have a derisive epithet for England - Albion Perfide. It reflects the French idea that the English are unreliable. They are inconstant allies - sometimes they are with La Belle France, and sometimes against. Who can tell what they will do next ? At any rate, you would be crazy to trust them.
But this reflects only the French misunderstanding of English and then British foreign policy with respect to Europe. Which has been remarkably constant for the past 500 years. England is a maritime country with an interest in continental affairs, for trading purposes, and because that's where the military threat comes from.
Hence England always allies, if it can, with the No.2 and No.3 European power, against the No.1 power. For the only thing that threatens England is a European hegemon, who may freeze England out of European trade. Or - the continent pacified - invade.
The perfidiousness is simply a reflection of the changing power dynamics of the various continental states. When Spain or Germany is top dog, ally with France. When France is top dog, ally against France. Since WW2, it was alliance with the USA which protected the UK from the risk of a European hegemon - the Soviet Union.
England is not perfidious, it has simply pursued its own interests for 500 years. Just like everybody else.
Trump's policy is to do that for America. He believes that international trade has been rigged against the US and we have been played for patsies. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but his policy is pretty straightforward. We want the rules changed to our advantage, and we're willing to upset the table if you don't go along.
He's not committed to 73.654% tariffs on Indian footwear imports. He's committed to making enough threats and enough soothing mollifications to get a deal with India that suits the US. And likewise with other places.
Except China where the "deal" is not commercial, but Great Power elbowing. China is the only real military threat to the US and so "business may have to suffer." Damaging the US economy by 10% is OK if it damages China by 30%.
This much is fairly obvious, but they're committed to the notion that Trump is an idiot who never plans, just reacts. So the high tariffs can't have been a negotiating tactic to bring those countries to the table, and their being dropped can't be because they agreed to negotiate.
On the one hand it's infuriatingly stupid the way they treat somebody who's so successful as if he were an idiot. OTOH, it IS his greatest asset, so it's silly to complain.
Brett - but TrGODmp's decision IS PRECISELY a reaction to the bond market.
"The tit-for-tat trade battle was a major source of worry for investors and markets with U.S. government bonds getting hit hard Wednesday, an indication of growing uncertainty over Trump's radical tariffs policy.
Late Tuesday and Wednesday saw a dramatic sell-off of U.S. government bonds, normally a safe haven for investors. The U.S. Treasury market is worth about $28 trillion and acts as a stabilizer for the global financial system, but the sell-off signaled unease with American assets and worries over the risk of the U.S. entering a recession."
TrGODmp knows that money talks here in the US - and he listened and obeyed.
No, it was precisely because the tariffs had accomplished their immediate goal: Bringing other countries to the negotiating table.
That wasn't their goal.
It's not exactly like this is a new concept.
March 3: Making Sense of the Trump Tariffs: They will bring other countries to the negotiating table.
March 17: Scott Bessent: "Going into April 2nd, now some of our most imbalanced trading partners come forward and want to drop their tariffs. If you drop yours, we'll drop ours. We are already seeing some of the worst offenders come down."
Etc. etc.
The madman theory of economics is not really a thing. It's barely a thing in forieng policy now that the Cold War is over.
Every member of the Trump admin threw out multiple narratives of how this would go. No one knew till Trump decided. Because, you know, Mad King.
Retconning by picking one of the many narratives that is not contradicted by Trump's behavior is just being an apologist for the mad king.
This is no way to run a country. We're already losing a ton of money to tourism and FMS and managing to be a less palatable trading partner than freaking China.
We drove Vietnam into the arms of China FFS; that takes some doing if you know any of that history.
Whereas if you constantly just ball up your fists and chant "Mad King!" no matter what happens, you can then triumphantly declare all good outcomes to be purely accidental.
And Vietnam is one of the actively negotiating countries explicitly discussed in the Forbes article I cited below. Got anything on "driving them into the arms of China" other than histrionic headlines?
Trump has taken for himself a scope of authority not previously thought to be the sole province of the President, rolled out an incoherent policy; preceded and followed that with erratic behavior, and you keep saying it's actually another Trump masterstroke.
That's the state of things.
The rest is you being a tool.
I'll take the non-answer as a confirmation that you just regurgitated the headline you saw about Vietnam, and then when looking at what actually happened realized you got pwned by your mainstream media masters yet again.
We are already seeing some of the worst offenders come down."
Which ones?
One clue it wasn’t the goal is all of Trumps tweets about surgery and the patient recovering.
Another is how many ways there are to get people to come to negotiate if that’s all you want.
Lurching tariffs are not clever nor strategic. They are what they seem to be.
Then why did he drop them before the negotiations even get going?
And do you really think other countries expect him to negotiate in good faith, and live up to his commitments.
OK. You think he's a genius. But do you also think he is a trustworthy negotiating partner? Neither does anyone else.
"That was a real good victory pivot. He's not a mad king at all!"
Trump could shit his pants and Brett would insist it's fake news and also Trump doing a very strategic plan.
Reporting from the Wall Street Journal :
"The message delivered to Trump and his top advisers by chief executives was they needed to find an off ramp. Trump played his cards close to his vest. He told advisers that he was willing to take “pain,” a person who spoke to him on Monday said. He privately acknowledged that his trade policy could trigger a recession but said he wanted to be sure it doesn’t cause a depression, according to people familiar with the conversations."
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-depression-would-have-gone-too-far/
So let's get this straight : Trump cobbed together an incoherent trade policy with contradictory objectives. It used the CIA World Factbook and a formula written by a preschooler in crayon. He gave a braying huckster show on "Liberation Day" and repeatedly insisted afterwards there was no going back. But then he folded in a panic because of the reaction anyone - and I mean ANYONE - would have readily foreseen.
This is the mentally-ill buffoon Brett insists is a very stable genius. Poor Brett.....
The messaging about the tariffs was schizophrenic, which means there was no plan.
The calculation for the tariffs was fake and not what they claimed, which means it wasn't actual economics.
The revocation was apparently done without the benefit of Trump's advisers, which means it's whimsy not policy.
It's like driving your car around the country without a map until you find a scenic spot and then declaring yourself a genius tour guide.
He is not "so successful" at anything except self-promotion, which I concede he is good at. He's certainly sold you.
His ROI on the money he started with is probably worse than yours. I know it's worse than mine. His business career consists of one failure after another, with the early ones covered by his father. He's also a fraudster and a deadbeat. Smart businesspeople don't have serial bankruptcies.
Does he have a plan with regard to tariffs? Yes, and it's a lousy one. He thinks he's going to raise tons of revenue from foreign countries (he has said so repeatedly) which is one of the dumbest ideas ever. He claims that having a trade deficit with some country means we are being ripped off by them, which is insanely stupid.
But to you he's a genius because he inherited a lot of money and then did well with a reality show.
That's why everyone hates the French, they call one of the countries that rescued them names.
Frank, you call Native Americans names and they rescued us from the French.
You're the ones calling them names by using the Woke "Native Amurican", the correct term is "Amurican Indian" that's why there's "Indian" Reservations and not "Native Amurican" Reservations and the "Bureau of Indian Affairs" not "Bureau of Native Amurican Affairs", and if they care so much, why didn't the Redskins and Indians change their names to the "Native Amuricans"??
Did I say "Why"?? I meant "How"??
get it? "How"??
Frank
The man plays three dimensional chess and folks like Ilya struggle with checkers.
Someone's too stupid -- stupid is the only word because it is headline news -- China now has a 125% rate. China was the target all along, and we will have more equitable trade rates with everyone else.. Trump has reminded the world that the US is the #1 market, and they are really better off allied with the US than with China.
Really? If you thought that, you would not support anything he says or does, because it could just be a feignt. We're tariffs a great idea, and we would just have to see what happened? Or is the delay needed? I am afraid the answer to both questions cannot be yes.
China is the neomercatilist empire people feared trump wanted to turn the US into. So if Mr. Somin is all for free trade maybe he should talk them into embracing globalist no barriers economics before he sues the US for retaliating.
That fool can’t play tiddlywinks.
You mad Bro?
"I can't comprehend the logic or trajectory of what he's doing... so it must be three-dimensional chess."
Sometimes bad ideas are just bad ideas. This isn't a Hollywood film.
Great that the lawsuit will continue. It might not even get to trial. As we have just seen, like all cowardly bullies Trump folds when real pressure is put on him by people smart enough and strong enough to fight back.
If you think he planned to keep all the tariffs as is and only folded because he was afraid of big bad mr. somin's lawsuit I don't know what to tell you.
Somin's objective isn't trying to get him to fold, it's to get a SCOTUS decision that he's breaking the law. He folded today because the bond market was turning him from Donald Trump into Donald Truss.
If you don't get that, don't worry, he didn't either, but he has folks who can explain it to him. The lesson probably included a cartoon of a wilting head of lettuce with Donald hair.
Ha!
He "folded" because he got what he wanted from the tariffs: 70+ countries agreeing to serious negotiations with the threat of the tariffs returning hanging over them.
I said it a couple of days ago: The point of the tariffs, (Except in the case of China.) wasn't to have tariffs, it was to get other countries to lower their own trade barriers.
You are utterly delusional. There were no significant countries negotiating with him; that's not what he wanted (though he certainly liked having his ass kissed, as he admitted); and that's not why he folded. The point of the tariffs was to have tariffs. It was not to reduce trade barriers. You are just hallucinating that what you would do is what he was doing.
I guess that could be correct if you come up with some sort of imaginative and purpose-driven redefinition of "significant" that excludes all of the countries in this list:
- South Korea
- Israel
- EU
- Japan
- Bangladesh
- Cambodia
- UK
- Vietnam
- India
- Taiwan
- Indonesia
- Lesotho
- Australia
- Argentina
You may be conflating ass-kissing with negotiation.
Ass kissing is the best sort of negotiation, if it's your ass being kissed.
OH, my bad -- you could also get to DMN's proposition via some sort of imaginative and purpose-driven redefinition of "negotiation." What was I thinking?
Your faith in the unwavering veracity of the administration continues to amaze.
He may be confusing things Trump said with things that actually happened.
LoB has been presenting Administration assertions as gosple quite a lot lately.
I'll rate that as pretty pathetic projection given your uncritical parroting of the "we drove Vietnam into the arms of China" media meme this morning.
Neat pivot away from my accusation.
Kind of a confession if viewed in the right light.
Brian, please. The trade war only one part of the protectionist wall Navarro convinced Trump to start erecting around America on Feb 1st and then, on Liberation Day, the impose sweeping tariffs on nearly every other country in the world.
Oh, wait, scratch that: a whole 13 hours & 17 minutes later, faced with a sudden and accelerating crash in 10-year Treasury Bonds (usually the go-to for funds fleeing to safety in uncertain times), Trump pulled the plug on his flagship tariff policy
Oh, hang on—actually, they’re still in place...but lower!
Wait, wait—we still have a universal 10% tariff on almost all imported goods; a 25% tariff on automobiles and automobile parts; 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum; and 25% tariffs on selected Canadian and Mexican goods.
So, I meant to say that United States Import Taxes are still order-of-magnitude historically high, but only for three months.
Oops, also: They are enormous on China, more enormous than they were at the start of the week, and more enormous at the end than the beginning of yesterday, when they were slightly less enormous but still enormous.
Totaling everything up, Trump's cave yesterday was mostly optics. It helped helped with the vibes (consumer confidence for a short while) but left most of tariff increases in place: nearly every trading nations' imports taxed at the 10% imposed last week, earlier higher additional tariffs on selected other countries, and China's 145%.
That takes average total import taxes from the 2-4% collected when he took office and for decades before, to over around 35% yesterday morning, now down to around around...25%...for the next 90 days. After that? Literally, who knows?
After the vibes wear off, the global impact of a 35% import tax is barely less that at 25%. There's very little preventing a resumption of the Treasury Bond crash, and I think that will make news before any nation-to-nation tariff deals.
If 125% Tariffs on the Chinks is "Folding",
Just keep Folding Baby! (HT A. Davis).
No, he folded because of the whining of Bill Ackman, Jim Cramer, Jeremy Siegel and the others who were worried about their portfolios. Hashem forbid they have to buy one fewer bottle of Manischewitz this weekend.
It's very simple. If Ilya believes that Congress delegating tariff authority to the President is illegal...then all delegating of tariff authority is illegal. Tariff rates should revert to the last time Congress set them. 1930 and the Smoot Harley tariffs.
Average tariff rates on all goods should be 20%. Dutiable imports just short of 60%.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ad/Average_Tariff_Rates_in_USA_%281821-2016%29.png
Very simple.
For fuck's sake. A child can draw lines other places than 'all is permitted' and 'nothing is permitted.'
In this case, there is a declaration of crisis and a magnitude and scope well beyond the intent of the law. Courts can distinguish no prob.
Blame congress for not finding the time over several decades to set clear lines. As Mr. Somin would say. Don't get mad about people going over the border if there is no border in the first place....or sometimes even if there is.
Indeed.
If the president can be delegated authority on tariff rates and uses that to drop from 20% (on average) down to less than 5% (on average), then there's no logical reason he can't raise them from less than 5% to some value lower than 20%.
Look at the chart. If you're going to draw lines...draw lines.
Trump: "I'm raising tariffs through the roof"
Cultists: "Yeah!!!"
Trump: "Oh wait, not doing it yet"
Cultists: "Yeah!!!"
Look at the chart. Trump's cave today left most of his tariff increases in place. All the imports taxed at the 10% imposed last week, and China's 125%, take the average total import taxes from the 2-4% collected when he took office and for decades before, to over 30% last week, all the way down to around a little under 25% for the next 90 days. After that? Literally, who knows?
This doesn't provide all that much going-forward relief from Trump's Liberation Day irrationality. Today's rally helps with the vibes (consumer confidence level), but the inexorable technical impact won't start being obvious for a few months. Reminders of that unpleasant fact are getting some financial sector chatter tonight, enough that it might hold down overnight Asian & European market recovery to less than we experienced today.
No matter what happens not just over the next weeks and months but over the next four years, damage to the U.S. will be far longer term and greater than any of this year's 1st-order financial consequences. Because, for the foreseeable future (well past Trump's reign), our country has demonstrated itself to the rest of the world, to be incapable of...
• developing and carrying out rational, consistent policies
• establishing trustworthy, lasting international or intranational agreements
So...to producers, consumers, and traders of goods in America and the World, what are the 2nd- and 3rd-order consequences of that government and economic uncertainty? At 70, I doubt I'll live to see us fully recover from the Trump Interregnum. I hope you will.
You and your stupid facts
For these reasons, the Liberty Justice Center and I are still proceeding with our planned lawsuit challenging these tariffs on behalf of US businesses that import goods from the affected countries.
They could always be honorable businesses, change their supply chain business model, make their goods in America, enrich employees and towns in America, reject supply chain slave wages and human rights violations from their present supply chain vendors, and achieve freedom for all parties. It's Passover! Think freedom from slavery!
We will not stop unless and until this unconstitutional usurpation of power is ended completely, and permanently.
Translation: Ilya wants to make a buck like his clients in the name of unfettered capitalism aka slavery.
Pssst, Ilya, it is Lent, and Passover is next week starting April 12. Give up unfettered capitalism and renounce the slavery it creates much like the slavery the Egyptians created for Jews. Were the plagues from YHWH not clear enough for you to observe His Commandments? Golden calf? Sheesh.
We are close to finalizing our list of clients and hope to be able to file the case soon
Make sure to publish their names so we can boycott them and demand they support American labor and made in America. Made in China has failed Americans bigly
Simone Biles would be impressed by the mental gymnastics it takes to argue that free and voluntary exchange is slavery.
wait until she learns what you think "Women's Health" is.
I believe the word BBS used was "unfettered capitalism"
And "unfettered capitalism"...a capitalism free from government or societal restriction could buy and sell anything...including people. Most people consider the buying and selling of people to be a form of slavery.
So, perhaps some fetters on capitalism are appropriate? Like the fetters that prevent slavery and slave trading?
Pffft. You heathens are all alike. SMH
Pope John Paul II, Pope Benedict XVI, Pope Francis all decried unfettered capitalism, borrowing from Sacred Scripture and Sacred Tradition like the early Church Fathers: St Basil of Caesarea, one of the church’s first theologians, called unfettered pursuit of money rules "the dung of the devil.”
Get thee to Confession. Bring back some Holy Water to sprinkle and hence cure Ilya of his TDS
Oremus!
I bet on two days before rollback. I underestimated his fecundity.
Couldn't people who know when tariffs will be going on and off again make an absolute killing; especially in ETFs? Is there any way to check for proxies, or is the world now too vast?
I'm sure that Cantor Fitzgerald, run by two sons of Howard Lutnick, didn't have any inkling about the timing of these Trump brainfarts.
https://bsky.app/profile/paulginva.bsky.social/post/3lmgavdxv6c2i
Certainly the SEC should be looking into any suspicious activity.
Should be.
Do you think they are, or will be allowed to?