A Blue June?

June 2022 was one victory after another for conservatives. June 2024 seems just the opposite.

Four years ago, we went through Blue June. It seemed that almost every big case at the end of the OT 2019 term seemed to go to the left. By contrast, the end of the OT 2021 term was just the opposite. During Red June, as I called it, all the big cases seemed to go to the right. The troika of Bruen, Dobbs, and Kennedy was unlike anything I had seen in my life.

OT 2023 seems to be trending to the left, with a fairly blue June so far.

FDA v. AHM, unanimous reversal of the Fifth Circuit. Moore v. United States, with only Justices Thomas and Gorsuch in dissent. United States v. Rahimi, with only Justice Thomas in dissent. Murthy v. Missouri, with Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch in dissent. (The NYT headline last night would have been useful supplemental authority: "Biden Officials Pushed to Remove Age Limits for Trans Surgery, Documents Show.") Based on the premature posting, Moyle split 6-3 with Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch in dissent. So far, the one outlier I can see is Garland v. Cargill, which prompted Justice Sotomayor to read her dissent from the bench.

Whatever happens in NetChoice will not be a victory for conservatives. Loper Bright will probably stop short of overruling Chevron. The Trump immunity case will not have much salience, other than making it impossible to hold a criminal trial before November. Grants Pass may actually make it harder for local governments to manage homeless encampments. Jarkesy may be a huge decision for the Seventh Amendment that people outside of D.C. will not care about. What's left?

I'm not ready to call it a Blue June yet, but we're trending in that direction.