A Blue June?

June 2022 was one victory after another for conservatives. June 2024 seems just the opposite.

Four years ago, we went through Blue June. It seemed that almost every big case at the end of the OT 2019 term seemed to go to the left. By contrast, the end of the OT 2021 term was just the opposite. During Red June, as I called it, all the big cases seemed to go to the right. The troika of Bruen, Dobbs, and Kennedy was unlike anything I had seen in my life.

OT 2023 seems to be trending to the left, with a fairly blue June so far.

FDA v. AHM, unanimous reversal of the Fifth Circuit. Moore v. United States, with only Justices Thomas and Gorsuch in dissent. United States v. Rahimi, with only Justice Thomas in dissent. Murthy v. Missouri, with Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch in dissent. (The NYT headline last night would have been useful supplemental authority: "Biden Officials Pushed to Remove Age Limits for Trans Surgery, Documents Show.") Based on the premature posting, Moyle split 6-3 with Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch in dissent. So far, the one outlier I can see is Garland v. Cargill, which prompted Justice Sotomayor to read her dissent from the bench.

Whatever happens in NetChoice will not be a victory for conservatives. Loper Bright will probably stop short of overruling Chevron. The Trump immunity case will not have much salience, other than making it impossible to hold a criminal trial before November. Grants Pass may actually make it harder for local governments to manage homeless encampments. Jarkesy may be a huge decision for the Seventh Amendment that people outside of D.C. will not care about. What's left?

I'm not ready to call it a Blue June yet, but we're trending in that direction.

Comments

[LoganMankins]

> Grants Pass may actually make it harder for local governments to manage homeless encampments

Either Blackman has hit the bong too many times or he just makes stuff up because everyone and their mom knows whats going to result from Grants Pass. And it ain't that.

[David Nieporent]

Josh is so desperate to hear himself talk that he's having a pre-tantrum about opinions that haven't even issued yet.

[SimonP]

A term that is ending with various narrow holdings dictated by a conservative/liberal alliance against dramatic, abrupt, and often incoherent jolts to the right is hardly a “Blue June.”

It’s a little like how Democrats declared “victory” when the “red wave” in 2022 only lost them the House by a few seats. If this term ends with fewer bombshells upsetting our entire legal order, that’s good for everyone, but hardly a “victory” for anyone on the left.

A lot of these cases should never have gotten this far in the first place, and wouldn’t have, absent the extremist Fifth Circuit.

[SMP0328]

With two of the most noteworthy cases ending with rulings of no standing, this term is ending as mostly a nothing burger. The only attention-getting decision on the merits was Trump v. Anderson (Section 3 of the 14th Amendment is enforced as determined by Congress via its Section 5 authority).

[Kleppe]

"It’s a little like how Democrats declared “victory” when the “red wave” in 2022 only lost them the House by a few seats."

Although it's off-topic, I have been saying this for a long time, and am pleasantly surprised to see you mention it. It seems every time I see a reference to the 2022 elections in the news media, it is talking about how the GOP underperformed -- almost to the extent that the "proper" interpretation was that the GOP had not prevailed, i.e., ended up with the gavels. A majority is a majority, whether by an inch or a mile.

[SimonP]

It is true that the GOP "underperformed." The fundamentals of the election suggested that they should have done better than they did, in both the House and Senate.

But they didn't "lose."

[David Nieporent]

A majority is a majority, whether by an inch or a mile.

Ask Speaker Kevin McCarthy whether that's true.

[grb]

Blackman leaves out the 6-3 conservative win in Snyder v. United States. These days, any pro-corruption ruling is a major victory for the Right. Justice Jackson speaks for the rest of us in her dissent:

“Officials who use their public positions for private gain threaten the integrity of our most important institutions. Greed makes governments—at every level—less responsive, less efficient, and less trustworthy from the perspective of the communities they serve.”

[hobie]

And it's about to get bluer, Blackman.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/26/us/politics/supreme-court-abortion-idaho.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2k0.WG7W.OVCTlWt61WRD&smid=url-share

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/6b9fae5569e1c17b/c261af37-full.pdf

Looks like Barrett has betrayed you again. And on abortion no less

[Kleppe]

"Looks like Barrett has betrayed you again. And on abortion no less"

Seems to me like it was a ruling on standing, not abortion. Care to quote what Barrett wrote?

[loki13]

Stop trying to make fetch happen.

[circleglider]

Blue June 2022, 2024. Both elections years.

Red June 2021. Electoral coast clear.

There’s a method to Roberts’ madness.

[circleglider]

Edit: Blue June 2020, 2024. Both Presidential election years.