The Volokh Conspiracy
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Setting Issue Priorities
How to prioritize public policy issues - and why it matters.

If you follow politics and public policy, you are likely to be bombarded with messages about a vast range of different issues. How do you prioritize among them?
Setting priorities is essential for a number of reasons. Time, energy, and money devoted to Issue A are thereby denied to issues B, C, and D. Thus, we need to think about where these limited resources can do the most good. In deciding which candidate to vote for in an election, other things equal, a candidate who is good (or less bad) on high-priority issues is preferable to one who is bad on them - even if he or she is superior on less-important issues. Most electoral decisions involve choosing a lesser evil. Who that is depends in large part on the relative priority of issues.
It doesn't necessarily follow that we should always devote our time and effort exclusively to the most important issues. A large gain on a small issue might sometimes outweigh a small gain on a big one. And you can sometimes to do more good focusing on a small issue where you have real expertise than focusing on a big one about which you know very little. Nonetheless, the relative significance of issues should be a crucial factor in many decisions, even if it can't always be the only consideration. Thus, we need criteria for determining that.
Issue prioritization is partly a matter of values. For example, a utilitarian who cares only about consequences for human happiness and welfare is likely to have different priorities from a rights theorists who believes some rights should never be violated, regardless of consequences.
I won't try to resolve fundamental disagreements over values in this post. I will merely say that the values I consider most important are liberty (including property rights as well as bodily autonomy) and human happiness. I want people to be as free as possible, but also as happy as possible. These values are of obvious significance to libertarians (excluding, perhaps, some who completely reject consequentialism). But they are also important for most in the broader liberal tradition. Non-libertarian liberals still tend to value "negative" liberty, even if they don't give it as high a priority as libertarians do.
Given those values, how should we prioritize issues?
In a recent guest-blogging post, Bryan Caplan argues that housing deregulation should be a high-priority issue for libertarians, because of its enormous effects. Millions of people would enjoy lower housing prices and be free to "move to opportunity." Magnitude of effect is definitely an important criterion for prioritizing issues. An issue where there is a lot of freedom and happiness at stake is more important than one where the quantity is low.
The assessment of such impacts on liberty and happiness should focus on net effects: the overall impact of the policy. A policy that increases liberty or happiness in one way, but also results in a decrease of comparable magnitude by some other pathway, is less desirable than one that has a large positive impact on net. The same goes for issues where there are difficult trade-offs between liberty on one side and happiness/welfare on the other. Other things equal, they deserve a lower priority than ones where liberty and happiness are in alignment.
Caplan also argues that housing deregulation deserves high priority because there is a relatively simple fix available for the problem: to enable a massive increase in housing construction, government need only "get out of the way" by cutting back or eliminating exclusionary zoning and other regulations that current block it. That's relatively easy to do! By contrast, some policy issue might require competence and "state capacity" well beyond anything that currently exists. Issues that require a major increase in competence or capacity deserve lower priority than ones where there is a simple fix that can be implemented quickly.
I would add that there is a related distinction between issues where there is room for incremental progress, and ones that are "all or nothing" propositions, where only a massive, radical change in policy can accomplish anything of value. Other things equal, the former deserve priority over the latter, except in rare "revolutionary" situations where radical change becomes more feasible than it usually is. For example, the conditions of the Civil War made immediate, nationwide abolition of slavery politically feasible, in a way that it clearly wasn't in earlier eras.
Thus, we have three criteria for prioritizing policy issues:
1. Magnitude of effects on human freedom and happiness. Big effects deserve priority over small ones.
2. Easy to implement solutions. Problems with simple, quick fixes deserve priority over ones where the solution is difficult and/or requires a massive increase in competence and capacity.
3. The possibility of incremental progress. Issues where incremental progress is possible deserve priority over "all or nothing" issues, except in unusual revolutionary situations.
With these criteria in mind, here are three issues that I think deserve much higher priority than most people - including most of my fellow libertarians - give them: housing deregulation, easing immigration restrictions, and legalizing organ markets.
Bryan Caplan's post, linked above, is a good summary of the case for deregulating housing construction. It would make millions of people better off by reducing housing costs, and enabling more people to "move to opportunity" and "vote with their feet." In addition, this is a huge issue for people who care about liberty and property rights. Exclusionary zoning restricts property rights more than any other type of government regulation. It prevents hundreds of thousands of property owners from using their own property as they see fit. If you believe that property rights are a crucial component of liberty more generally, than zoning and other similar regulations are a massive affront to your values.
And, as Bryan also points out, there is an easy fix: simply repeal the regulations that stand in the way. Doing that does not require any great technocratic competence on the part of government.
Finally, there is tremendous room for incremental progress. Abolishing some exclusionary zoning rules but not others can still enable a lot more new housing to be built, and still strengthen protection for property rights. Ditto for deregulation that applies in some states or localities, but not others.
Regular readers won't be surprised that reducing immigration restrictions ranks high on my list of priority issues. Immigration restrictions literally consign millions of people to lives of poverty and oppression. Dropping them would massively increase freedom of virtually every kind: economic, personal, religious, and more. Think of people fleeing oppressive dictatorships like those escaping Cuba and Venezuela, people fleeing war (such as Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine), political and religious dissidents fleeing persecution, and so on.
Ending all or most immigration restrictions would also greatly increase liberty for native-born citizens of receiving countries, as well as the migrants themselves. I go into the reasons why here and here.
The positive impact on human happiness is also enormous. Economists estimate that free migration throughout the world would roughly double world GDP, by enabling millions of people to move to places where they can be more productive. In addition, immigrants disproportionately contribute to economic, scientific, and medical innovation, thereby further increasing the gains migration - including for natives, who also stand to benefit from all that progress. As an extra bonus, increasing opportunities for legal migration is also the best way to reduce chaos and disorder at borders, like the US border with Mexico.
Negative side effects of migration are nowhere near large enough to offset these enormous gains, and those side effects can be further reduced by "keyhole" solutions. I discuss how and why in more detail in Chapter 6 of my book Free to Move: Foot Voting, Migration, and Political Freedom.
The policy fix here is simple: mainly, governments just need to cut back on laws and regulations that exclude migrants. Some keyhole solutions are more complicated. But they are nonetheless well within the competence of most existing First World governments. Examples include such things as restricting immigrants' eligibility for welfare benefits (which we already do under the 1996 welfare reform bill, but could potentially do to an even greater extent).
As with housing, there is plenty of room for incremental progress. Increasing the annual number of immigrants admitted to the United States by 10% would still enable about 100,000 more migrants to attain vast increases in freedom and happiness each year, as well as facilitate substantial gains for natives. The list of ways in which immigration restrictions can be incrementally liberalized is almost limitless.
My third under-rated issue is legalizing organ markets. Repealing the law banning the sale of kidneys would save some 40,000 lives every year, in the US alone, and also spare many thousands more people the pain of spending years on kidney dialysis.
Legalizing organ sales is also an important liberty issue. Exercising control over your own body is a fundamental element of liberty. If you believe in "my body, my choice," legalizing organ markets is a logical implication of your position.
Objections to organ markets are generally weak, and certainly nowhere near strong enough to justify the enormous death and suffering restrictions cause. In previous writings, I have critiqued standard arguments, such as concerns that it would be too dangerous for organ donors, claims that it amounts to to immoral "commodification" of the body, and fears that it would lead to exploitation of the poor (see also here).
The fix for this problem is an easy one: simply repeal current laws banning organ sales! Implementing rules against coercion and fraud in organ markets is a bit more complex. But we already have such rules in other markets. There is no need for any major new type of state capacity that doesn't currently exist.
Incremental progress here is somewhat more difficult than with housing and immigration. It may seem as if legalizing organ markets is an all-or-nothing proposition. But that is far from entirely true. There are various ways in which we can legalize some types of payments for organs, while continuing to ban or restrict others. The recently proposed End Kidney Deaths Act is one example of such a proposal. We can also imagine legalization limited to some sellers, but not others (e.g. - if you are worried about "exploitation" of the poor, you can advocate legalizing sales only by the non-poor). In addition, survey data suggests the public is more open to broader legalization than usually thought.
This list is far from an exhaustive one. I chose these issues because they are particularly stark examples, and because I have relevant expertise about them.
There is, of course, the danger that these issues just seem important to me because I spend a lot of time on them. I can't definitively disprove that conjecture. But I will note that all three are issues to which I have gradually devoted more of my time and attention, as I came to realize how important they are. For example, my early work on property rights focused more on eminent domain. But I have written more about exclusionary zoning in recent years, because I have come to recognize its greater importance. There is a similar story in my work on "voting with your feet," which started with a focus on domestic migration, but gradually shifted more to the international kind, because the gains from the latter are larger.
I won't try to do it here. But, applying the same criteria, we can easily come up with a list of issues that get too much attention, rather than too little.
There is, obviously, plenty of room for disagreement with both my criteria for prioritizing issues, and the application of those criteria to particular cases. But, at the very least, we should recognize that issue prioritization matters, and we need rigorous criteria for deciding which issues matter more than others.
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This is basically just policy analysis, with a particular application of choosing which policies to push first.
The one thing I'd say is you shouldn't live by impact metrics alone.
Personal interest is not nothing - passion means more personal effectiveness. And who can say what moves a person, except that it's only occasionally impact metrics.
Under Criterion #2 (Easy to Implement), Prof. Somin is focusing on the simplicity of the action that would need to be taken, e.g. repeal some prohibition or regulation. That’s not the difficult part; the difficult part is the political opposition.
The most difficult are issues that have become tied to the partisan divide. When that happens it’s no longer possible to convince people by offering arguments, even arguments appealing to their self-interest. The sole cognitive tool becomes Whose Side Are You On?
It seems that immigration is now in that category. There won’t be any progress, by anyone’s definition of progress, until one side gets uncontested control of all three branches and ignores the wailing from the other side that their very identity is being destroyed.
The other two issues aren’t so tightly tied to party identity so there’s some hope. Even then, there’s a lot of people with a personal financial interest in the current zoning and building permit system, and they’re what Somin would call rationally- informed and motivated voters. They tend to show up and vote in local elections. The people who’ve been kept out by the zoning don’t even get to vote.
Organ markets probably have the least organized opposition; plus, it’s not going to be decided by single issue voters in a local election. IMO it’s most likely to get passed if it’s labeled as “decriminalizing compensation for generous organ donors for their inconvenience and noble sacrifice” rather than “robust free market in selling human organs”, even though it amounts to the same thing.
An incremental step would be to allow websites where people can post genetic/immunology data along with messages like “I need a kidney” or “I need to send my daughter to college”, and a law that exchanging such favors will not be prosecuted.
I want enough to retire comfortably = will donate one lobe of liver
Allowable?
I've got no problem with it.
But if it made the squeamish more comfortable, you could not mention the liver specifically, just post enough information to screen for initial compatibility. Any follow up about the precise comfort level you need and what organs you're willing to part with could be handled in the private phone call follow-up.
Or maybe a short personal bio: "I love yachting, golfing in Scotland, and having spectacularly great ALT and AST numbers."
"Economists estimate that free migration throughout the world would roughly double world GDP, "
I believe the phase is, "a broad global layer of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be prosperity"
Haven't recent studies kind of shat on the whole "more illegals increase GDP" mentality?
The total GDP goes up, the per capita GDP goes down. But you have to break eggs to make an omelette. We're the eggs...
You have no citations, but I presume you are stuck in your usual nativist nationalist bent.
Because if it’s the world GDP and it goes up hard to see how the per capita is going to not do that.
Ilya himself has previously linked to studies that said that, he just blew off the per capita part. But, here:
Immigration is surging, with big economic consequences
“Although new arrivals are clearly boosting GDP, they appear to be dragging down GDP per person. GDP per person has fallen or failed to grow for four consecutive quarters in Australia and seven in Britain. In Canada, where the drop in the measure is most pronounced, output per person fell by 2% in 2023. “
The Canada study?
That's a short term effect, not like what you were talking about.
Gotta survive the short term to reach the long term, you know.
No new goalposts.
You aren't in charge of setting goalposts, so will you get over that rhetorical tic already?
You're toying with a government bureaucrat; they excel in inanity.
You can argue about the short-term - that's what has me not being an open borders person - but that's not what you did. You presented a sweeping thesis, and then were unable to support it.
You said: "The total GDP goes up, the per capita GDP goes down."
I challenged this, you provided a study that wasn't on point.
When I noted this, your response was to change your thesis to specifically about the short-term.
It's bad arguing, Brett.
Though your discussion below about culture reveals your real concerns are unsurprisingly not about GDP at all.
Per capita GDP goes up. At least, I have a study, what do you have?
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Spillover-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Impact-of-Migration-on-Income-Levels-in-Advanced-Economies-44343
Also: https://www.fwd.us/news/immigration-and-gdp-growth/
Further, it could be country specific, but it's not a secret that countries in the most advanced economies are no longer procreating at replacement rate and shrinking, aging populations are neither good for GDP nor per capita GDP. Therefore, it makes intuitive sense to me that increased immigration in economies with old-skewing demographics, at minimum, would benefit from immigration. But it also seems likely that immigration generally would boost a country's per capita GDP anytime unemployment is historically low. And it's historically low in the US now (it's one reason there are so many immigrants trying to get to the US: the jobs).
In countries with restricted immigration you would expect it to go up, because the immigrants are being carefully selected. Ilya, notably, rejects the idea of restricted immigration, or that nations are entitled to be very selective about who enters.
I'm very much in favor of immigration, but unlike Ilya, I favor selective immigration targeting benefits to existing citizens, not indiscriminant immigration that only cares about the benefits to the immigrants themselves.
I want the cream, he's happy to take the whey.
Brett, we are a country with restricted immigration, despite your fervent belief otherwise.
It is also very hard to argue you are in favor of immigration when you seem to deeply find immigrants an *ahem* cultural threat.
Yes, we are a country with restricted legal immigration, and wide open illegal immigration. Something like 3/4 of our immigration is illegal, bypassing the selective legal system, consisting mostly of unskilled laborers with very limited English literacy, and a demonstrated willingness to violate our laws.
But we're discussing Ilya's open borders obsession, so I can talk about the consequences of open borders, which are radically different from selective immigration.
"It is also very hard to argue you are in favor of immigration when you seem to deeply find immigrants an *ahem* cultural threat."
I'm MARRIED to an immigrant, I have mentioned that, haven't I? Personally assisted her in navigating the immigration system. I am in favor of selective, "cream skimming" immigration. Law abiding, English literate, college graduate immigrants, not unskilled labor.
I am of the opinion that the government is under a sort of fiduciary obligation to craft immigration policy (ALL policy!) to the benefit of already existing American citizens. Ilya seems to think the the government should follow policies dictated by universalist utilitarianism, and place no priority on the interest of existing citizens, just pursue the greatest welfare of the greatest number, world-wide.
From my perspective the benefit to the immigrants themselves is just a bonus, it should never be the motivation for the policy. But there are a lot of people out there who would benefit this country greatly if we allowed them to come here. And we'd have a lot more room for those people if we slammed the border shut for everybody else!
No, the border isn't open. This remains insane. There are stats and pictures an an entire office of DHS.
You can imagine what the border would look like open, and it's absolutely not what it looks like today.
I don't fucking care who you married, you post bigoted shit, and absolutely false stuff authorized by the hatred your bigotry engenders.
The border MUST be open because you're too angry for it to be anything more complicated than that.
And no, it's not just hatred if illegals - your hand-waiving concerns about "American culture' reveal where you're actually coming from. Again, you say the same 'it's not the race it's the culture' about blacks in America. So it's not really taking a lot of telepathy to see why you stay so general about what culture means.
It's more generalized than race, but concerns that non-natives can't operate like 'Real Americans' is essentializing the external as something internal. Same fallacy; same bigotry.
See also some of the more out-and-out white supremecists on here and their peons to a 'Western Civilization' that they don't really define except 'whites throughout history' whether the actual civilizations were white or not.
Oh, right, you're the guy who claims that when illegal immigration changed exactly when Biden took office, going up several-fold, it wasn't a result of anything Biden did, pure coincidence. You're really reasoning clearly about illegal immigration.
And I don't think you reason any more clearly about bigotry, that you go any further than, "disagrees with me"="bigot".
" Again, you say the same ‘it’s not the race it’s the culture’ about blacks in America. "
Yeah. I live in a majority black neighborhood, low crime, I see every day that the high average crime rate of blacks isn't anything biological, it's just that a disproportionate number of them are part of a bad culture. Whites who are part of that culture are just as bad, blacks who aren't are just as nice.
But you're so opposed to reasoning about cultural differences that you automatically replace any mention of "culture" with race, and then start ranting about bigotry.
It CANNOT be cause by Biden's action - instant reaction by large groups is not a thing in reality.
Also there were not actual actions evident exactly when Biden took office.
Expectations? Probably. But actual intentional action? Literally impossible.
I disagree with plenty of people on here without calling them a bigot. Your unsupported take that illegals have a higher than average propensity for criminality? That is baseline bigotry.
Your thing about our culture being under threat from immigrants? That is a white supremecist shibboleth.
I don't care how many of your best friends are blacks, you are saying bigoted shit.
Of course it can be caused by Biden's action, as has been pointed out to you repeatedly. Because he told everybody months in advance what he was going to do!
So we can presume Brett loved Obama’s immigration approach as migrant encounters at the border dropped during his two terms to their lowest levels in decades.
And, of course, right about April-May 2017, encounters began an upward trend that, by May 2019, had accelerated to the highest numbers in over a decade. Then the pandemic hit which dramatically reduced migration worldwide, followed by the end of the pandemic and, basically, a return to the trend line that started in about April 2017. By October 2020, encounters were higher than any numbers from January 2009 to January 2017 and they have trended up unevenly (e.g., large drop in June 2023) since October 2020.
Brett, of course, interpret these numbers as proving things that map with his priors. However, the numbers make it seem as if there are a number of complex factors that influence immigration numbers, with none of the most important variables being as simple as who is in the White House at the time (or who will be in a short time). Who would’ve thought?
Not Brett. He’s so intelligent, he can make any data fit his priors.
he told everybody months in advance what he was going to do!
So it's nothing he did, it's that he said he wouldn't be as insanely cruel as Trump.
That's not an action, chief.
Um, I hate to introduce things like math, but if the denominator is held constant and the numerator goes up, how can the value of the fraction decrease?
Why would you hold the denominator constant when we're discussion immigration? Sure, let's start the analysis by assuming there isn't any change in population when people move into a country, that makes a lot of sense.
It does indeed. See, if X people move from country A to country B, then the population of country A goes down by X, and the population of country B goes up by X, and the total population therefore does not change.
And we are talking about the total GDP within a country, or at least I was.
Your OP starts with this quote "“Economists estimate that free migration throughout the world would roughly double world GDP."
You, 2 posts down from the OP to your OP: "The total GDP goes up, the per capita GDP goes down. But you have to break eggs to make an omelette. We’re the eggs…"
You are so stuck on nationalism you missed it. I even pointed it out to you yesterday!
Time for the Federal government to import large numbers of beaurocrats to replace expensive American citizens.
It’s true there would be some levelling, and at the very top end it would be downward.
But there are large regions with completely unrestricted internal immigration, e.g. the US or the EU, and they still have quite noticeable regional differences in economic level. So, I don’t think Pakistan and US would end up at the same per capita GDP even with totally open borders.
I would say that regional disparities in wealth have both external causes, (Natural resources, weather, ports..) and they have a cultural component.
Within the US those external causes vary considerably, and as they are fixed in location you have to expect persistent local differences in wealth, even with the cultural component continually mixing due to internal travel. But that same mixing means that the cultural component doesn't vary nearly as much within a jurisdiction like the US as it does between jurisdictions.
Ilya's sort of analysis tends to treat people as fungible, assuming that the cultural component is relatively easy to change. That's not realistic, especially at high levels of immigration between radically different cultures.
You have to assume that high levels of immigration from central and South America will make the US culturally more like central and South America. And not just in terms of cuisine and dress, in terms of the cultural elements that are responsible for that wealth difference in the first placebo.
We will become culturally more like a poor country. How is that supposed to not make us poorer?
I think you’d agree with the following counterexamples:
1. The Cuban diaspora in Florida isn’t making Florida more Marxist.
2. The Iranian diaspora in LA isn’t pushing for stricter dress codes and an Islamic Republic.
Of course the reason is that they came here precisely to escape those cultures.
Mass immigration from Central and South America will probably lead to a lot more Spanish loan words in English and a shift in eating habits; already has. But I don’t see a much push for caudillo politics, “Bolivarian” economics, etc.
Yes, you’ll occasionally see a Hispanic lefty wearing a serape and calling herself Xochitl. She picked that up at some Ivy league school. Maybe despite her parents, not because of them.
I do. But it's coming from Trump supporters, not immigrants.
We will become culturally more like a poor country. How is that supposed to not make us poorer?
This is very simplistic. The first part first: No, because the immigrants from the poor countries are not randomly selected, so don't have the same economic proclivities as those who stay. In fact, they are likely to be more industrious, are more likely to believe in "the American dream", etc. So, no. Just like the Cuban immigrants community and immigrants from the former Soviet Union tend to be more pro-capitalism and more anti-communist than the countries they came from and, I would bet, more so than the average American.
How is that supposed to not make us poorer?
The second part is obviously entirely invalid unless your first part is right, which it likely isn't. But let's assume, though we shouldn't, you were right about the first part. Whatever marginal impact the economic "culture" of immigrants have, if the evidence shows that importing workers makes the economy more efficient and so more productive, then whatever minor effect their cultural impact has could be (and likely would be) overwhelmed by their direct effect...which itself would likely change their own culture.
If capitalism works for them, they'll become stronger capitalists, won't they?
Your thought experiments simplify things too much (e.g., that immigrants to the U.S. from Venezuela have the same cultural/economic views as the Venezuelan government and/or the same cultural/economic views as the Venezuelans who choose to stay in Venezuela, rather than dramatically different views; that immigrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Nigeria, and Ukraine have an "immigrant" culture and will each be more likely to shift U.S. culture in some direct than to all assimilate to a greater degree to U.S. culture).
You seem, as much as Ilya but in different ways, to assume people are widgets.
Of course it's simplistic, it's a comment, not a dissertation.
A little more detail:
Yes, immigrants are not randomly selected. You'd expect them to have more initiative and drive than the people who stayed behind. (The easier you make immigration, the less this will be the case.) If illegal, you'd expect them to have a higher proclivity to violate laws. (Even if Ilya insists on using a since refuted study to the contrary.)
That doesn't mean that if somebody immigrates from a dysfunctional society they'll be relevantly different, or different enough, to not reduce the net functionality of the society they move to. Just because they really don't like the society they came from doesn't mean they understand what was wrong with it, and have purged themselves of that.
This is very much an empirical question.
Today's legal immigrants, of course, are seriously vetted, and even if coming from dysfunctional nations are at least the cream of the dysfunctional crop. But notice that Ilya treats immigrating to the US as a right, not a privilege, a position that does not allow for such vetting. He'd just throw the border open, with some vague assurances that you would still be allowed to keep out terrorists and serious criminals.
1. You think the only determiner of initiative and drive is our immigration standards. There are other things that are in the mix here, from family obligations to socioeconomic needs to cultural expectations.
2. "If illegal, you’d expect them to have a higher proclivity to violate laws" is rank bigotry. You put crossing the border illegally in a slot with felony theft. But it's not - that's your priors.
3. "reduce the net functionality of the society" what the fuck is this? Sociology doesn't work like that. Culture doesn't work like that. People don't work like that.
4. You have no metric for functionality for society. It is NOT an empirical question. You are not being empirical, you are being bigoted and putting an engineering gloss onto it.
Your philosophy is most like 19th century social darwinism. Don't go there, it leads to some dehumanizing places!
"You think the only determiner of initiative and drive is our immigration standards."
Huh? No, I think initiative and drive is the primary difference between immigrants from poor countries, and the people who stay at home. It's got nothing to do with OUR standards.
"“If illegal, you’d expect them to have a higher proclivity to violate laws” is rank bigotry."
No, it's rank common sense: If a group is defined by going to great efforts to violate a law, you sensibly expect they will have a higher than average proclivity to violate laws. And the statistics confirm this, even if Ilya insists on using already refuted numbers to the contrary.
"“reduce the net functionality of the society” what the fuck is this? Sociology doesn’t work like that. Culture doesn’t work like that. People don’t work like that."
Nope, absolutely do.
"You have no metric for functionality for society. It is NOT an empirical question. You are not being empirical, you are being bigoted and putting an engineering gloss onto it."
Per capita GDP. Crime rates. How are these not metrics for the functionality of a society?
No, it’s rank common sense: If a group is defined by going to great efforts to violate a law, you sensibly expect they will have a higher than average proclivity to violate laws. And the statistics confirm this, even if Ilya insists on using already refuted numbers to the contrary.
No, it's not common sense. It's nonsense. The group of immigrants you are talking about are not "going to great efforts to violate a law", they are going to great efforts to go to a place where they can earn more (though less than the native born citizens) with the opportunity to improve their lot and their children's lot.
Do you really think the people who escaped the Soviet Union by, for example, risk getting shot while escaping from East Germany to West Germany were going to great lengths to "violate the law" or, more sensibly, were going to great lengths to get to freedom and economic opportunity? The question answers itself.
The statistics do not prove unauthorized immigrants commit more crimes, in fact, quite the contrary. The statistics that supposedly refute this have, themselves, been refuted. (https://www.cato.org/blog/illegal-immigrants-have-low-homicide-conviction-rate-setting-record-straight-illegal-immigrant)
And this argument is over the Texas data set which, at best for you, is inconclusive. That you pretend it settles the argument despite many other studies with other methodologies that support the findings of Nowrasteh says something about the quality of your argument. Here's an overview:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/29/truth-about-illegal-immigration-crime/
The data conflicts with your intuition which is based on your bigoted priors. It confirms that the people coming aren't coming to "violate a law", they are coming for economic opportunity or to escape oppression or lawlessness. Again, you are oversimplifying people and their motives, pretending that being willing to cross a border is equivalent to murder, rape, robbery, or theft. (The latter being one of the stupider talking points of the anti-immigrant right, that unauthorized immigration is theft. That, again, ignores that the vast majority are not coming to take anything, but are coming to work for the opportunity to better their and their children's lives.)
Studies also show that increasing authorized immigration reduces unauthorized immigration which fits with the fact that people are not coming to "violate a law", they just have a strong desire and motive (escape political oppression and crushing poverty, gain freedom, gain economic opportunity) to immigrate.
https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-illegal-entry-presidents-and-effective-policy/
The report shows that unauthorized immigration is reduced due to economic and demographic changes as well as increased legal immigration options rather than increased border enforcement.
When people are willing to risk death and all the abuses many immigrants suffer on their way to the U.S., simple deterrence is not going to solve the problem. It's not unlike alcohol prohibition. Obviously, we would be dumb to kneecap our economy (like during Covid) solely to reduce immigration (that's the true "success" of the 2019-2021 reduction in unauthorized immigration), but we could expand legal means for agriculture and construction industries to get the workers they need which would reduce incentives for would-be immigrants to sneak in for jobs that are no longer available to them.
Sure, open borders don't work. Dramatically expanding authorized immigration and treating people like people does, in fact, make society better.
(And I think it's a no brainer we should dramatically increase our "skimming" of educated, talented immigrants. But, for much the same reason, it's crazy for us to punish Dreamers for the perceived sins of their parents when they have gotten educations, etc., and could contribute more to our society if we would legally acknowledge the fact on the ground: they are American.)
" The group of immigrants you are talking about are not “going to great efforts to violate a law”, they are going to great efforts to [ILLEGALLY} go to a place where they can earn more"
“they are going to great efforts to [ILLEGALLY} go to a place where they can earn more””
As did people fleeing East Germany. It’s a dumb argument, Brett. Willingness to cross international borders, despite laws against it, to flee oppression or economic hardship is not a general disregard of law. You just want to vilify oppressed people because you are eager to keep them out of the U.S..
Shorter: Your autism is showing. That’s an argument that sounds good to someone who is hyper logical but doesn’t understand people very well.
The people fleeing East Germany weren't violating West Germany's laws, obviously.
"Shorter: Your autism is showing. That’s an argument that sounds good to someone who is hyper logical but doesn’t understand people very well."
Yeah, I do roll my eyes when people start going on about how their feelings trump logic. But this is a particularly egregious case of it, because I've already recently pointed out that the statistics actually DO show a higher proclivity for breaking law on the part of illegal immigrants. The stats Ilya uses have been refuted, and he ignores that.
I will grant that Google really buries the more recent research, promoting the older debunked numbers ahead of it.
Misuse of Texas Data Understates Illegal Immigrant Criminality
The PNAS study Ilya relies on is specifically called out here as mistaken.
To quote someone from an obscure site from about 8 hours ago:
"The statistics do not prove unauthorized immigrants commit more crimes, in fact, quite the contrary. The statistics that supposedly refute this have, themselves, been refuted. (https://www.cato.org/blog/illegal-immigrants-have-low-homicide-conviction-rate-setting-record-straight-illegal-immigrant)"
Emphasis added.
That's not "obvious," actually. Except to the extent they were asylum seekers. (But you reject any attempt to categorize any of the people coming across the U.S. border that way.) But they were certainly violating East Germany's. Making them people "defined by going to great efforts to violate a law," making them people with "higher proclivity to violate laws."
Thank you, David.
Apparently my points were too subtle for Brett to appreciate. You seem to have understood them perfectly.
Brett: I do roll my eyes when people start going on about how their feelings trump logic. But this is a particularly egregious case of it…
No, Brett. You are smart enough and self-aware enough to understand that logic requires valid premises. It is not the case that being willing to cross an international border to escape oppression and crushing poverty correlates to a general proclivity to break the law. You are substituting logic for the hard fact of human psychology, not feelings. That you confuse an argument about human psychology with an argument from feelings should give you pause.
If you think you are basing your opinion on the latest data, then, as David pointed out, you are mistaken as I’ve already provided a more recent analysis that criticizes the analysis you rely on.
The best, most recent analysis of the data supports my view that unauthorized immigrants are, in general, less likely to commit crimes. But there are logical reasons for thinking that: Namely, the very concrete fact that the costs of crime to an unauthorized immigrant (e.g., likely deportation) are much, much higher than for native born Americans.
You can’t just latch onto the facts that support your position, you have to acknowledge the facts and logic flowing from the facts that cut against your position. Failing to do that is not the mark of someone engaging in rigorous logic (as you try to brand yourself), but is instead the mark of someone working hard to reach a predetermined conclusion under the guise of being a rigorous logician. In fact, it’s exactly what you roll your eyes at. You, Brett, are substituting your feelings for actual logic based on facts.
To be clear, CIS, the anti-immigrant group who criticized the Cato analysis to which Ilya has linked, also criticized the February 2024 analysis to which I linked.
But here is the March 2024 response which explains both why the 2022 CIS analysis is flawed and why their latest criticism is flawed.
https://www.cato.org/blog/center-immigration-studies-still-wrong-about-illegal-immigrant-crime-texas
It also has receipts which appear to demonstrate CIS isn't really interested in a good faith debate whereas Nowrasteh has and is willing to share his data, including the critical definitions necessary to understand the data, and is otherwise open about both his process and earlier errors he made.
"It also has receipts which appear to demonstrate CIS isn’t really interested in a good faith debate whereas Nowrasteh has and is willing to share his data, including the critical definitions necessary to understand the data,"
I note that CIS has actual links to their data embedded in their site and links to Nowrasteh's spreadsheets are nowhere to be found. He does have screen shots of his metadata, but these raise as many questions as they answer.
Nowrasteh makes a big deal about the intersection of the PEP identified illegals vs TDCJ identified illegals and how he needs to remove the intersection to avoid double count. I get that in theory, but he seems to be missing some pieces. First, his metadata from his TDCJ includes the following note "TDCJ does not identify legal and illegal, this is through PEP only". Care to tell me how he arrives at the piece of his set that is illegals identified through TDCJ only ? Also we know from some other comments in his metadata that entries move from TDCJ to PEP over time, without more info about how and why this occurs as well as the rate, this is not very convincing. I could possibly back out what he has done from the spreadsheets, but unlike CIS, his raw data is not simply available.
My judgement: Not a strong refutation and I reserve judgement until I can actually find his raw data and have some questions about his meta answered. It was clear his initial effort was completely wrong due to the factors CIS discovered. This effort I cannot fully evaluate yet.
First things first:
Not a strong refutation and I reserve judgement until I can actually find his raw data and have some questions about his meta answered. It was clear his initial effort was completely wrong due to the factors CIS discovered. This effort I cannot fully evaluate yet.
That's a legitimate position to take. Brett's position, that it is settled that unauthorized immigrants commit crime at a higher rate than native born Americans, is not legitimate, especially as he completely ignores the Nowrasteh responses.
To your point that "Nowrasteh’s spreadsheets are nowhere to be found."
I direct you to this: "My data are available for all who want it, they just need to ask."
If you want to do a deep dive, you need only email him.
Also note, there are multiple other studies which have findings more like the Nowrasteh/Cato findings. CIS is the outlier and has not substantively responded to Nowrasteh's updated analysis and response to their critique. They merely recite an email that, as Nowrasteh points out, is internally contradictory and their entire analysis relies on one particular interpretation of that email which does not seem to comport with the facts Nowrasteh later gathered from Texas, to include his detailed requests and the indications therein that CIS would have double-counted unauthorized immigrants who committed crimes.
I mostly share your reticence to say I know what the right answer is, given I haven't looked at the underlying data, but Nowrasteh has more clearly explained his reasons with convincing critiques of CIS, CIS has merely responded as I noted above (i.e., one poorly worded email response settles the matter) which is not convincing. One of these is more convincing than the other. At minimum, there is no clear answer for these years in Texas, much less a general nationwide conclusion.
The possibility of incremental progress. Issues where incremental progress is possible deserve priority over "all or nothing" issues, except in unusual revolutionary situations.
Really? Examples please, of unusual revolutionary situations.
Perhaps the example he used to illustrate the principle?
Funny how Libertarians will say that an issue has an easy fix, when that fix involves destroying the American way of life.
Surprising to see institutional considerations ignored completely. Those would be my first priority, no matter what else I wanted.
It strikes me as incontrovertible that there exists a broadly shared interest in coherent governance. Before other questions get attention, there must be a priority to install institutional means to accomplish any of them, to nurture broad-based support for those institutions, and to keep them functioning while challenged by change.
Of course I get that libertarians especially are ideologically skeptical of all of that. Libertarians prefer, apparently, to demand that whatever societal preferences they favor materialize as if by magic.
Ideologues of other flavors parade as institutional nihilists. They promote destruction for whatever institutions facilitate other more particular priorities they disapprove.
Attitudes such as those not only baffle me, they baffle any inclinations I have to entertain discussions. I cannot fathom how to converse with incomprehensibly benighted factions, founded primarily on an inflexible tribalism. Or, alternatively, how to converse with advocates who suppose it is possible to posit axioms, and reason from those to establish facts, without benefit of experience to inform the axioms, or institutions to implement desired outcomes.
It strikes me as incontrovertible that there exists a broadly shared interest in coherent governance.
It’s quite controvertible, in fact, it’s surprising you’d make such a claim in the face of factual evidence:
– Roughly half the country voted for a candidate whose basic attitude is let’s kick over the table.
– There are many polls on which issues are of most importance to voters, including those in which the question is open-ended. I challenge you to find “coherent governance” mentioned at all.
– The closest thing you’ll find is Pew Research showing 60% who complain about “the ability of Democrats/Republicans to work together”. But note the slash rather than “and”. That number is the result of the pollster combining complaints about Democrats and complaints about Republicans into one category. It’s the hard opposite of a consensus.
– A better measure of those who prioritize “coherent governance” is the number of people who supported No Labels. In other words, single digit percentages.
ducksalad, are you sure you addressed what I said with regard to institutionalism? Seems like you shifted the discussion toward policy. Are you trying to tell me that MAGA types actually do not have any interest to preserve American constitutionalism?
I confess I do not know how to answer that question with regard to libertarians, but I think of those as a negligible minority of the polity.
I would say many MAGA types would like to preserve American constitutionalism, but that a lot of them think that it has already died for all practical purposes, given how far we have already departed from the original constitutional structure and concept of a limited federal government. The usual comparison is committing to playing by the Marquis of Queensbury rules while the other guy has just nailed you in the balls with brass knuckles.
As for libertarians... Ilya is NOT a good example of a libertarian, frankly. He's more what has been called a "liberalitarian"; A sort of mashup of libertarianism and leftism, where the conservative aspects of libertarianism get downplayed, and corners are cut to permit left wing policies.
Shorter Bellmore: Screw institutionalism. It's too constraining.
American constitutionalism turns out to be more talisman than substance.
If you check what MAGA thinks American constitutionalism is, you find very little actual substance. It's reactionary own the (who are traitors in the name of the Constitution).
Guns are good because liberals hate them (and hey they may be needed for some permanent anti-liberal solutions).
Big business...uhhhh how woke is it?
Abortion was bad until MAGA caught that car.
God is good, but like culturally? And because school prayer makes libs sad.
Illegals are the cause of every problem from crime to the economy to creeping socialism. Unless it's blacks. Or maybe it's Jews. Point is, it's not Real Americans.
MAGA is not a philosophy, Brett. Which means you get to decide it aligns with your priors. Though to be fair those seem a bit moveable when there is lib owning to be done.
No, MAGA is not a philosophy, it's a political slogan. Expecting philosophical consistency of people who align with a slogan is silly.
Reactionary? Sure, that last "A" stands for "Again", so what else could it be? Any group trying to reverse what they think was a mistake can be characterized as "reactionary".
As for the rest of your screed, you assume the worst of people who disagree with you, no shocker there. I wonder how many Trump supporters you actually personally know...
Correct. That's the primary characteristic distinguishing MAGA from the traditional GOP establishment, the primary reason why Trump is not their heir to Reagan, or Nixon, or any other major historical Republican figure. They're happy — often eager — to burn everything down.
The primary characteristic distinguishing MAGA from the traditional GOP establishment, speaking as somebody who actually hangs with them, is something else entirely. But I won't quite argue with the "burn everything down" claim.
The GOP establishment really do not agree with their own base on a lot of issues. I could go into why that is, but it's beside the point, whatever the reason. So they have long run a sort of bait and switch operation against their own base, claiming to fight the good fight, but always losing.
In '94 the dog caught the car, and the base couldn't help but notice that they contrived to lose even when they were in the majority. It's hard for the majority to take a plausible dive.
So the cat was out of the bag, the base, or anyway a key segment of it, finally realized that they were being played. And they started fighting to displace the establishment, and create a new GOP that would actually try to do what its base wanted done.
Naturally the establishment wanted no part of that, and it's been civil war ever since.
Trump was saying the right things, and conspicuously didn't have the establishment's backing, but he did have the resources to campaign without it. So the base gave him a try. And noticed that he was largely trying to do what he'd campaigned on, while the establishment undercut him at every point.
That pretty much clinched it, he had their loyalty. And the more he's attacked, the more he has it.
So, burn everything down? Sure, if you think the government is corrupt as hell, and under the control of people who don't have your best interests at heart, who want to keep you down, what else are you going to try to do?
The Brett Bellmore-verse must be an absolutely fascinating place to live.
-wrong place-
It strikes me as incontrovertible that there exists a broadly shared interest in coherent governance.
Perhaps for values of broadly, less widely shared between the two major political parties today than a decade ago.
Open all the borders. One year after all social programs are ended.
SSI, Medicare, SNAP, medical. education.
ALL social programs
Its impossible to have open borders and welfare.
And traditional libertarians understood that very well, that open borders were the absolute last part of the program you'd dare implement, because a welfare state is a magnet for people who'd like to be on welfare.
That's the bitter irony here: Illegal immigration has pretty much killed any prospect that the US would become a libertarian country, by flooding the nation with people who were far less libertarian than the natives were.
And I've already pointed out to multiple times you that this is false. There is no such "traditional libertarian" position.
So far, not much showing but despairing nihilism. Disappointed that the likes of ducksalad and Purple Martin have joined in.