Upcoming Event on "Solving the Nation's Housing Shortage" [update]

Economist Bryan Caplan, former National Association of Home Builders Director Jerry Howard, and I will speak at event sponsored by the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

UPDATE: This event has been postponed till September, for scheduling reasons. I will post the new date and time when it is set.

Note: I am reposting this in order to include the registration link.

On April 23, the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University will hold an event on "Solving the Nation's Housing Shortage." I will be speaking along with economist Bryan Caplan (George Mason University), author of Build, Baby, Build: The Science and Ethics of Housing, and Jerry Howard, former Director of the National Association of Home Builders. Bryan will discuss his book,  which addresses the causes of the housing crisis, and potential solutions. I will speak about how exclusionary zoning - the most significant cause of our housing shortage - violates the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment, and how judicial review can help address the problem. These issues are covered in greater detail in my forthcoming Texas Law Review article on exclusionary zoning (coauthored with Josh Braver).

The event is free and open to the public. Here is the time and address:

12-1 PM, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, Van Metre Hall, Rm. 111, 3351 Fairfax Dr., Arlington, VA

You can register at this link.

Comments

[Longtobefree]

We don't have a housing crisis.
We have a government overreach crisis.

[Abdul Abulbul Amir]

Zoning or rent control, which is the greater impediment to new housing builds?

[M L]

Take a few steps back.

Biden and previous presidents have flouted immigration law openly because they want more immigration than the law allows. In addition, those in power have decided to take in extremely large amounts of legal immigration. Among many other effects, these policies create extreme demand side pressure on the housing market. It’s a completely unnecessary but intentional choice that creates this. Of course, one might support these policies anyway for various reasons, and there are many other things going on as well. But let’s not ignore it.

As far as impediments to new housing builds, the greatest impediment is “cost,” i.e. that people can’t afford it relative to their income and disposable assets.

If the discussion is "how can we create as many new housing units as possible, as quickly as possible," that framing contains some incredible unexamined assumptions. What are the top line objectives here?

[Absaroka]

“As far as impediments to new housing builds, the greatest impediment is “cost,””

One factor there is that houses today are way bigger than in the past:

1920: 1,048 square feet
1930: 1,129
1940: 1,177
1950: 983
1960: 1,289
1970: 1,500
1980: 1,740
1990: 2,080
2000: 2,266
2010: 2,392
2014: 2,657

Our first not-apartment places were renting those sub 1000 sq ft post-war houses. It doesn’t seem like any of those are being built anymore. I’m not sure what market forces are driving that increase, but it’s hardly surprising much larger houses are more expensive.

Ooops, forgot the link.

[Currentsitguy]

Guess we're living in 1970. Our place is 1500 sqft, just about right for 2 people, and we've got everything you could possibly want in terms of custom and bespoke luxuries and amenities. Who in the hell wants to clean all of that extra space?

[bernard11]

Who in the hell wants to clean all of that extra space?

Well, neither of us, I suppose, but there are obviously lots of people willing to do it, like it or not.

[M L]

Good point. On the other hand, presumably the amount of land that 1,048 sq ft house was sitting on was a lot bigger than what we have now. For example, “In 1920, when the farm population was first identified as a separate group, 30.2% of the population lived on farms” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12314701/ Not long before than over 60-70% were farmers, from 95% at the founding. Looks like that is 2% today. Plus, of those who weren't farmers, more lived in rural locations historically.

[Absaroka]

"On the other hand, presumably the amount of land that 1,048 sq ft house was sitting on was a lot bigger than what we have now."

I dunno about 1920, but the post-war houses we rented were on small lots. I just looked up one of them on zillow and it was 710 sq ft on a 0.16 acre lot. There were huge tracts of them.

[FivebySixThree]

Property taxes can take an otherwise affordable home and make it unaffordable. My own takes have gone up fifty percent in the last four years and some of my neighbors are hard pressed to afford the increases.

Home sizes went up because the cost of land increased so much that there was a disconnect in the heads of buyers who would wonder why so little house cost so much but the increase in square footage did not raise the overall cost much. 2000 to 3000 really doesn't impart that much of a jump.

[AmosArch]

We need to collectively realize not everybody needs to live in the middle of Manhattan or Silicon Valley.

[The Margrave of Azilia]

{deleted}

[The Margrave of Azilia]

What's the rent for a human-sized Diogenes-style jar?

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jean-L%C3%A9on_G%C3%A9r%C3%B4me_-_Diogenes_-_Walters_37131.jpg

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

Let me guess what your answer is: let developers build as much as they want wherever they want?

No thanks.

[M L]

Yah. And he wants to use big centralized government to force this policy on everyone. Some "libertarian" . . . but actually pretty standard libertarianism.

[Sarcastr0]

State and local laws are also bad so far as a libertarian is concerned.

Jim Crow supporters yelled about big centralized government forcing a policy on everyone too. They were decidedly not libertarian.

Whatever you are, it's sure not libertarian.

[Currentsitguy]

I would think a true libertarian position is so long as I cause my neighbor no harm neither they, nor Federal, State, or Local authorities have no say in what I do on or with my property. Conversely I have no say with my neighbors for the same reason.

Now say I live in an exurban or rural area and somebody next door decides to put up a 20 story hi-rise (unlikely I know, but this is hypothetical so bear with me) that I can make the case that I am suffering irreparable harm and therefore a loss. I have no backyard privacy, I can't pee in the back when I take the dog out in the morning, people complain about the meat smoker, people can't stay on their diet because of the meat smoker etc.

[Sarcastr0]

A libertarian would say you just offer an equivalent exchange to your neighbor to prevent them from putting up the high rise.

And if you don't have an equivalent exchange, then work harder.

[Estragon]

“people complain about the meat smoker, people can’t stay on their diet because of the meat smoker etc”

Isn’t this just classic nuisance?

[Absaroka]

Yes and no??

For example, I really like summer nights when I can hear the neighborhood kids squealing in delight while playing hide-n-seek or whatever. It is such a wonderful hopeful sound. But not everyone does.

How do you handle that? I think the libertarian ideal is that nothing - no sound, no smell, no nothing ever crosses the property line. But that's not feasible; you can hear my car door slam and my lawnmower, and I can smell your steaks when you have a cookout.

Which I think highlights a place for both laws and HOAs. Laws might say you can mow your lawn between 8AM and 8PM (and it just sux to work 3d shift) or you can have over 55 covenants or whatever for the people who don't want kids playing tag to interrupt their nap.

My wife and I are very much not-HOA people. We have a friend that got dinged by his HOA for having a slightly wrong shade of brick red front door. I seriously want to be able to paint my front door any darn color I want (it's off white, but I want to be able to paint it whatever I want). So we live in not-HOA places, and accept that our neighbors can paint their front doors purple if they want (which I think is kinda funky-cool, TBH). People who disagree can move someplace with a strict HOA.

Unless you live miles from the nearest neighbor, you are going to impact them and they are going to impact you. Having places with agreed upon rules, whether zoning or HOAs, seems OK to me.

[Estragon]

Completely agree, and I personally just painted a rental purple!

But cmon nobody wants to live in libertarian land, really. Common law exists because people have been thinking about these kinds of situations for hundreds of years already.

Noxious fumes, to name one classic example, have been around forever.

[bernard11]

Yes.

It's stupid to pretend there are no conflicts. Instead you need to work on clear rules that reduce them.

[Currentsitguy]

Actually it was meant as a bit of humor.

[Estragon]

Hmm ok. I may be sensitive to that particular hypothetical— in my jurisdiction there is a long-standing Vietnamese restaurant getting sued for just this (meat fumes)!

[Dr. Ed 2]

Hang a deer in your back yard...

[David Nieporent]

Of course not. Let developers build as much as they want and can afford to on property they own.

[Jumaira]

We can start by not importing tens of millions of third world parasites and kicking out the ones already here.

And no, there is no constitutional right to be here or even to due process, regardless of what the shrieking women on the Supreme Court rule.

[Dr. Ed 2]

+10,000

[Estragon]

Blaming things on shrieking women seems curious, given that there are only 4/9

[Estragon]

Or do you count kavanaugh in that group?

[David Nieporent]

I am pretty sure that it was James Madison et al. who said that there was a constitutional right to due process. (I don't think he was a woman or on the Supreme Court. I don't know whether he ever shrieked.)

[bernard11]

Though he might have shrieked on listening to the latest slimebag to show up here, and his fan Dr. Ed.

[#FFFFFFPride]

If only the federal government could tax billionaires... with that extra $20B they could solve the housing crisis AND world hunger!

[M L]

What housing "crisis" are you referring to ?

[Mr. Bumble]

Who hacked the VC? No Open Thread and now a two week old post.