Two Years of Writings on the Russia-Ukraine War

A compilation of my work on this topic, on the two-year anniversary of the start of Vladimir Putin's full-blown attempt to conquer Ukraine. Almost all of it remains relevant.

Russian armored vehicle in Ukraine. March 2022. (NA)

 

Today is the second anniversary of the start of Vladimir Putin's brutal effort to conquer Ukraine. While Russian aggression against Ukraine dates back to the seizure of Crimea and parts of the Donbass in 2014, the February 2022 invasion vastly escalated the conflict,  led to large-scale death and destruction, and - even worse - extensive atrocities committed by Russian forces.

This is an update of last year's February 24 post, compiling my writings about the conflict up to that time. There have been many more over subsequent year. I ended last year's post with the hope that Ukraine might win a decisive victory soon, but also stating "I fear I may be compiling another list like it a year from now." Sadly, that fear has come to pass.

In this post, I compile links to my writings about the conflict over the last two years. Many focus on the enormous refugee crisis it has triggered, as that is the aspect most closely related to my areas of expertise. But I have also written on a variety other issues related to the conflict.

Since the early days of the conflict, I have advocated that the US and other Western nations should open their doors to both Ukrainian refugees and Russians fleeing Vladimir Putin's increasingly repressive regime. Over time, I have become more and more convinced that the West should give Ukraine as much weaponry and supplies as possible, in order to push for the largest possible Ukrainian victory. The Ukrainians have done well militarily; their recent problems are largely a result of ammunition and supply shortages caused by slowdowns in US and other western aid. Russia's forces, for their part, have suffered heavy losses, are only modestly competent, and have poor morale and discipline. They can be beaten, if only the West is willing to make a fairly modest investment, much of which can be funded by confiscating Russian government assets in Western nations.

There are also large moral and strategic benefits to Ukrainian victory. The moral aspect is obvious - saving millions of people from oppression, atrocities, and mass murder at the hands of a brutal authoritarian regime. In addition, Ukrainian victory would give a boost to liberal democracy in its ideological struggle against authoritarian nationalism. Strategically, Putin's regime is one of the main enemies of the United States and the West. Any Russian forces damaged or destroyed in Ukraine are ones we don't have to face elsewhere. And a defeat for Russia is also the best hope for a more liberal, or at least hostile, government in that country.

Those who claim helping Ukraine is a diversion from countering China in the Pacific would do well to remember that our Asian allies - including Taiwan - believe helping Ukraine is in their strategic interest. They know that weakening Russia also weakens China (for whom Russia is a key ally), and that showing resolve in Ukraine helps deter China, as well.

I discuss many of these points - and others - in greater detail in various pieces linked below.

In the first part of this post, I compile links to writings on refugee and immigration issues.  In the latter part, I compile  links to other pieces. Unless otherwise noted, all of these pieces were published right here at the Volokh Conspiracy blog, hosted by Reason.

I list them in chronological order. If you just want to look at more recent pieces, simply scroll down!

I. Writings on Immigration and Refugee Issues

"Offer Asylum to Russian Soldiers Who Surrender," Mar. 1, 2022.

"Biden Grants Temporary Protected Status to Ukrainians in the US," Mar. 4, 2022

"How the Us Can Help Refugees (and Weaken Vladimir Putin)," New York Times, Mar. 8, 2022 (non-paywalled version here). This was probably my most widely read article about any issue related to the war.

"More on Offering Asylum to Russian Soldiers Who Surrender in Ukraine, Mar. 10, 2022

"US and Canada Expand Admission of Ukrainian Refugees," Mar. 24, 2022

"The Case for Opening Our Doors to Russians Fleeing Putin—as Well as Ukrainians," Mar. 27, 2022.

"By Accepting Ukrainian and Russian Refugees, Canada Can do Good and do Well," Globe and Mail, Apr. 12, 2022 (with Sabine El-Chidiac)

"Ukraine and Double Standards on Refugees," Apr. 24, 2022

"Biden Administration Takes Incremental Steps to Open Doors to Ukrainian and Russian Refugees," May 2, 2022

"A Double Standard Between Ukrainian and Afghan Refugees?," May 26, 2022

"New Wave of Russian Emigration is an Opportunity for the West—but One We Seem Likely to Flub," July 17, 2022

"Americans Should be Able to Sponsor Refugees Who Can Stay Permanently," Washington Post, July 18, 2022 (with Sabine El-Chidiac) (non-paywall version here)

"The Rise of Private Refugee Sponsorship," Aug. 6, 2022

"Don't Play into Putin's Hands by Barring Russians from the West—Instead, Let More in," Aug. 23, 2022

"Vladimir Putin's Partial Mobilization Order Strengthens the Case for Opening Western Doors to Russians Fleeing His Regime," Sept. 22, 2022

"Why (Most) Citizens Are Not "Responsible for the Actions of their State," Sept. 25, 2022. Critique of a common rationale for barring entry to Russians fleeing Putin's regime.

"Learning From People Who Vote with their Feet," Oct. 5, 2022. This piece explains what we can learn about the quality of Russia's government from the fact that large numbers of people are voting with their feet against it.

"Uniting for Ukraine Private Refugee Sponsorship Program Breaks Through Bureaucratic Red Tape," Nov. 27, 2022

"Russian Dissenters Fleeing Putin Often Face Abusive Immigration Detention Upon Arrival in the US," Nov. 30, 2022

"We Sponsored Refugees Under a New Biden Program. The Results Were Astonishing," Washington Post, Jan. 3, 2023 (non-paywall version here). This was probably my second-most influential piece on issues related to the war. It apparently led over 100 people to sign up as refugee sponsors in the Uniting for Ukraine program, according to data compiled by the Welcome.US sponsor matching site. I have since sponsored several additional Ukrainian migrants myself, and have helped other people become sponsors.

"Biden Expands Uniting for Ukraine Private Refugee Sponsorship Model to Include up to 30,000 Migrants Per Month from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Haiti," Jan. 5, 2023.

"Addressing Some Common Questions and Misconceptions About Uniting for Ukraine and Other Private Migrant Sponsorship Programs," Jan. 10, 2023

"Canada Grants Refugee Status to Russian Fleeing Conscription," Jan. 21, 2023

"Why Congress Should Pass a Ukrainian Adjustment Act," Feb. 22, 2023

"US Accepted 271,000 Ukrainians Over the Last Year—But Can Do Much Better," Mar. 15, 2023

"US Needs to Protect Ukrainian Refugees in the United States," Boston Globe, April 21, 2023 (non-paywalled version available here).

"Bipartisan Ukrainian Adjustment Act Introduced in Congress," June 15, 2023.

"Michael McFaul Makes the Case for Reaching out to the 'Russian Diaspora,'" June 26, 2023

"Biden Administration Extends Temporary Protected Status for Ukrainians in the United States," Aug. 18, 2023

I have also done a variety of podcasts and broadcast media interviews on migration and refugee issues arising from the war. For examples, see here, here, here, and here.

II. Writings on Other Issues Related to the War

"Law, Justice, and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," Feb. 23, 2022 (post written just as the Russian attack began; I think it's still a helpful summary of the moral and legal issues at stake in the war).

"How to Fight Putin by Offering Russians 'a Million Little Carrots,'" Mar. 6, 2022

"Two Illiberal and Unjust Zelensky Policies the West Should Force Him to End," April 1, 2022. This drew more negative reactions than anything else I have written about the war. Still, I stand by it. Zelensky's government is vastly better than Putin's and deserves Western support in the war. But that doesn't justify overlooking its wrongs.

"The Case for Pursuing the Issue of Russian War Crimes in Ukraine—Even Though Putin is Highly Unlikely to Ever be Tried and Punished," April 10, 2022

"Law, Justice, and Russia's Attempted Annexation of Four Ukrainian Regions, Oct. 4, 2022

"The West Should Heed this Message from a Russian Prison," Feb. 16, 2023

"A Conflict Between Liberal Democracy and Authoritarian Nationalism: Implications of the Ideological Stakes in the Russia-Ukraine War," Feb. 24, 2023

"Russian Opposition Leader Vladimir Kara-Murza's Powerful Final Statement to the Court," Apr. 17, 2023

"International Criminal Court Issues War Crimes Arrest Warrant Against Vladimir Putin," Mar. 17, 2023

"Michael McFaul Makes the Case for Reaching out to the 'Russian Diaspora,'" June 26, 2023. This piece relates to both immigration and broader issues. Thus it appears in both sections.

"Those Who Support Israel Against Hamas Should also Back Ukraine Against Russia," Oct. 12, 2023

"Fund Ukraine's War Effort by Confiscating Russian Government Assets," Nov. 17, 2023. The importance of this issue is underestimated. The $300 billion in Russian government assets currently frozen in the West could, by itself, fund Ukraine's war effort for a long time to come.

"The GOP's Bogus Linkage Between Aiding Ukraine and 'Border Security,'" Dec. 12, 2023. This post is partly about issues at the US southern border, but it is not focused on refugees from the Ukraine war itself, and therefore fits in this category.

"US, Allies Consider Seizing Russian Government Assets and Giving them to Ukraine," Dec. 28, 2023

"Alexei Navalny, RIP," Feb. 16, 2024. Russia's most prominent opposition leader - recently murdered by Putin - understood the evil of Putin's war on Ukraine.

"Tucker Carlson vs. the Evidence of Russians Voting with their Feet," Feb. 16, 2024. This relates to migration, too. But I put it in this part of the post, because it's more about how to assess Russia's government and society.

I hope the US and its allies bolster support to Ukraine, and the war reaches a successful resolution soon. But, once again, I fear I may end up posting another list like this in 2025.

Comments

[Kleppe]

Ukraine is being bled dry, all because American leftists have an anti-Russia fetish dating back to the 2016 election. Ukraine could have been spared two years of heartache and hundreds of thousands of lives if we had let nature take its course two years ago. Instead of throwing in the towel and ending the fight when the outcome became apparent, we paid tens of billions to keep it going.

[Sarcastr0]

let nature take its course
Ahh yes the natural process of an imperialist Russian invasion of choice.

You're not a pacifist, you're just a useful idiot.

[Kleppe]

One corrupt eastern European oligarchy invaded another one. Who cares? Wars happen all over the world, all the time. But I had to foot the bill for this one because American leftists have terminal anti-Russia dementia following the 2016 election.

[Sarcastr0]

YOU care; you posted an opinion about what Ukraine should do.

Now you pretend you don't care, and take refuge in an America First sentiment that was dumb 80 years ago and is vastly dumber now.

Why so inconsistent?

[Kleppe]

"YOU care; you posted an opinion about what Ukraine should do."

When? Where?

[Sarcastr0]

Ukraine could have been spared two years of heartache and hundreds of thousands of lives if we had let nature take its course two years ago

[Kleppe]

"Could have been spared" is passive. That sentence is about what "WE" (i.e., the United States) ought to have done. Work on your reading comprehension.

[Sarcastr0]

OK chief.

[NOVA Lawyer]

This is not a particularly insightful take. The Ukrainians fought. What you are saying is the United States shouldn't have supported the Ukrainians, but reframing it as if the United States chose to have Ukraine defend itself. But the Ukrainians chose to fight rather than capitulate.

This fake, paternalistic concern for Ukrainians (we should have let them die and be subjugated faster for their own good) ignores what Ukrainians prefer (which is to fight for their independence and freedom).

And you are wrong that the outcome of Ukraine completely taken over by Russia is the inevitable outcome. In fact, the lines have been very static and if Ukraine was adequately supplied, Russia would not be able to make progress and a negotiated peace would be inevitable.

[Jason Cavanaugh]

Shhh.

It's far more convenient for the Russian propagandists around here to ignore that Ukraine has done quite well when adequately supplied, and that Russian gains have almost exclusively occurred when Ukraine was not.

[Jason Cavanaugh]

Let's just clear this up right now: You're a fucking isolationist moron.

The immediate cost of losing Ukraine is likely that Russia will also take Moldova, Georgia, and other Baltic States.

The long-term cost of losing Ukraine is that Russia will have a much stronger strategic position to threaten NATO from, and the ability to place dangerous weapon systems in the heart of Europe. This will increase the risk to Europe, NATO, and by obvious extension to anyone who isn't you, the United States.

Here you go, dipshit:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine

As for 'sparing' Ukraine by just letting Russia take it, perhaps you should ask those who now suffer under Russian occupation whether they've been 'spared.' Maybe you should ask about their children which have been kidnapped by the tens of thousands.

Fuck off back to Moscow.

[Krayt]

You may assume too much, he could be an official propaganda troll.

All Americans have an anti-Russian fetish, except some hardcore communist types. Because we have anti-dictatorship festishes.

He also parrots an asinine talking point about how much money is spent. There are a lot of things the government could reduce spending on, but defending freedom is not the place to start. Or thwarting dictatorship rolling tanks through Europe, to address the next point his echo chamber has programmed him with, probably something like Ukraine was itself a corrupt dictatorship, so why bother?

In any case, the amounts are trivial for the US, and would be worth it even if not.

[Kleppe]

"defending freedom is not the place to start"

These are the same lines they used to lie us into countless wars. I feel like I'm reading comments from circa September 2002. Jesus Christ.

[David Nieporent]

You know we're not in this war, right?

[Kleppe]

We're already losing our treasure for it; what's a little blood on the side? After all, we can't countenance Russian tanks rOlLiNg ThRoUgH eUrOpEaN cItIeS.

[David Nieporent]

We're spending a trivial percentage of our budget on it.

[Mr. Bumble]

For a country $33 trillion in debt nothing is trivial.

[David Nieporent]

Not really. You know that almost all of that debt is owed to ourselves, right?

[Life of Brian]

Ah, the magic of the royal "we." So "we" will only screw "ourselves" when "we" default on it or inflate it into a rounding error?

What exactly is your point?

[windycityattorney]

How nice of you to throw Ukraine to the wolves for them. What the fuck is wrong with you?

[Kleppe]

The Ukrainians have been thrown to the wolves for the past two years, as we have artificially prolonged a helpless situation. The end result was written the day Russia decided to invade. All we are doing is making tens of thousands of Ukrainians die who would not otherwise have had to do so. And the American people are paying out the nose for the privilege. November will be a reckoning for this blight.

[David Nieporent]

The stupidest thing about this position is that no matter how badly the war goes for Russia, they'll keep telling us that Russia's victory is inevitable.

[Kleppe]

What is the critical distinction between this statement and an identical one about the Ukraine backers? We've been told by our news media that Russia is on the verge of collapse for two years now, all it will take is a couple more tens of billions of our tax dollars.

[Ridgeway]

This is stunningly dumb. What hammer are we holdiong over the Ukrainians that is forcing them to fight on unwillingly? If the Ukrainians wanted the fighting to stop, they would surrender. The fact that they have not done so indicates to me that they, in fact, want to keep fighting, and view that sacrifice as preferable to living under Russian rule.

[Mr. Hook]

Ambassador Kennedy, lovely to hear from you from the afterlife!

[David Nieporent]

Ukraine is being bled dry, all because American leftists have an anti-Russia fetish dating back to the 2016 election. Ukraine could have been spared two years of heartache and hundreds of thousands of lives if we had let nature take its course two years ago. Instead of throwing in the towel and ending the fight when the outcome became apparent, we paid tens of billions to keep it going.

"I'm Vladimir Putin, and I approve this message."

[Roger S]

Somin is a Russian Jew. He has an anti-Russian fetish that goes way back, before 2016.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

The Volokh Conspiracy: Official Legal Blog of America's Vestigial Right-Wing Write-Offs.

Carry on, bigoted Republican clingers. Betters Americans will continue to let you know precisely how far and how long, though, of course.

[David Nieporent]

Your mother may have hated gay people and women and Jews and stuff, but at least she also recognized the Russian threat to the U.S. You kept all the bad parts and none of the good parts.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

How do you know what his mother was (or is) like? Why bring her into this?

I'm all for mocking and scorning these bigoted and despicable right-wing losers, but I do not understand this approach (unless you know each other, in which case . . . carry on).

[ObviouslyNotSpam]

If Ukraine ultimately decides to stop paying the steep price of defending themselves against Russian aggression, to "sue for peace" and an "end" to the war, that is their choice.

But it would be a shame if the only reason they surrendered was because we in the prosperous, powerful West refused to come to their aid.

[Kleppe]

The Feb 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is remarkably similar to the Mar 2003 American invasion of Iraq, in terms of scope and correctness. I can't imagine how the usual suspects in the VC commentariat would have reacted if U.S. service members had been getting killed by Russian supplied munitions on the streets of Baghdad.

[Ridgeway]

Uuuuh...who do you think made the Iraqi tanks, planes and much of the rest of their munitions?

[David Nieporent]

The Feb 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is remarkably similar to the Mar 2003 American invasion of Iraq, in terms of scope and correctness.

I mean, it took roughly two weeks for American forces to capture Baghdad, so that's kind of like the humiliating Russian retreat from Kyiv after failing to get close to it.

[Roger S]

Under Communism, the USSR was a threat to the USA and Europe. Now Russia is just another corrupt country on the other side of the world.

[Sarcastr0]

Over here we have an angry Shaffley.

Over here we have the National Defense Strategy

All a government conspiracy to make Roger's foreign policy insights look dumb on the Internet, I expect.

[windycityattorney]

I don't know if he reads comments; but Ilya has been consistently on the right side of history on this issue. He is doing this blog a great service.

Ukraine has a right to exist as an independent nation. It has a right to defend itself from Russia and America used to stand up for countries in Ukraine's position. Ukraine is fighting a much bigger and better equipped enemy and needs outside help to defend itself. None of these statements are controversial.

The amoral dipshit brigade that is likely to fill these comments can f right off. Your appeasement of dictators and tyrants is well noted. Your bitching about spending tiny percents of our overall defense budget to help a people fight for their country and their very existence is noted for the historical record and given its appropriate place next to the toilet bowl of stupidity from which you claim to be a political movement.

[Roger S]

And the USA has the right to get the Ukrainians killed, if it inflicts damage on Russia.

[Sarcastr0]

Russia: blameless angels, or innocent lambs?

[Roger S]

Russia is not blameless or innocent. But no worse than a lot of other countries, and not worth the USA starting a war.

[NOVA Lawyer]

Ukrainians are choosing to fight for freedom and independence. Stop being a dick and pretending the United States chose this fight. Russia started it, Ukraine chose not to capitulate.

Your faux concern for Ukrainians (which rejects Ukrainians' expressed preference in the face of significant cost) is disgusting.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

These right-wing misfits are just write-offs.

Un-American, bigoted, worthless, superstitious, ignorant write-offs.

And the target audience of a blog operated by a bunch of disaffected, fringe, faux libertarian, right-wing law professors who were affirmative action hires their employers now regret.

[Mr. Bumble]

How long before Ukraine runs out of bodies to man the equipment we send them?

[Dan Schiavetta]

I continue to believe that Trump is under threat of blackmail from Putin and his underworld cronies. Nothing else can explain his obeisance at every turn, in particular that embarrassing 2018 press conference where with Putin standing next to him he disowned the unanimous findings of our intelligence services that Russia interfered with the 2016 election.

What is equally embarrassing is how Trump’s every whim and inclination is slavishly followed by his supporters even if it means about-facing on their previous positions. (E.g. Past infidelities bad? No, now a politician’s past infidelities — even if not apologized for — don’t matter.) Russia bad? No, Russia now good. A Hitler-style invasion of another country bad? No, now it's good.

[Kleppe]

Which American conservative politician is arguing that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was "good"? Are you sure you're not hallucinating?

"Past infidelities bad? No, now a politician’s past infidelities — even if not apologized for — don’t matter"

Even in your dotage, there's still time to learn what a protest vote is.

[Sarcastr0]

Trump said he'd encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members.

Tantamount to the same thing.

You dimwitted tool.

[Life of Brian]

Of course the point was about whether we should have an obligation to bankrupt ourselves to defend free riders.

But you knew that.

[David Nieporent]

Ah, it's the old "You're not allowed to take Trump literally or seriously. You must assume that he meant something far less stupid and evil than what he actually said."

He didn't merely say that he wouldn't defend our allies if he decided they weren't doing enough; he said that he would encourage Russia to attack them.

[Life of Brian]

Well, if that's the new standard now, I will from here on take every single shred of ridiculous rhetoric you post here completely literally and a measure of your true character. If past history is any judge, it's gonna be a wild ride.

[NOVA Lawyer]

Better that than what you usually do which is measure others' character not by what they say, but by what you disingenuously infer they are secretly thinking. This should be an improvement, at least. It's nice to see growth from you, LoB.

[Life of Brian]

Aw... thanks, Dad!

The irony of you having to disingenuously infer what I'm secretly thinking in order to make your sage assessment is quite palpable.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

The mistakes these guys make it to care what you think.

What matters is that your thinking continues to be marginalized and defeated in the American culture war, and that un-American losers like you are replaced in our electorate and society by better people (in the normal course, when you take your stale and ugly thinking to the grave, where it belongs).

[NOVA Lawyer]

You realize that's gibberish, LoB? I didn't infer anything. I made an assertion about your history on these comment boards which everyone can see. It requires no inference. It's what you actually type.

[ObviouslyNotSpam]

There is no credible evidence for this belief.

You may just as well believe the 2020 election was stolen.

Hope that helps.

[Commenter_XY]

I am reading all these comments, and nobody is saying: This is the concrete goal of US policy vis a vis UKR. Professor Somin is notably imprecise in his goals, and frankly, Ilya the Lesser doesn't make a good argument for America to stay involved in UKR either. Here are some objective truths to consider.

Crimea is gone. RUS will never, ever give it up.
An additional 20% of UKR was lost, and annexed. RUS will never, ever give it up.
UKR is hard-pressed for military age males willing to fight and die in UKR.
RUS can easily call another 300K military age males to fight and die in UKR.

The time is rapidly coming to 'fish, or cut bait' on UKR. This American says 'cut bait'. Why?

UKR is not a vital US national interest. And frankly, it is not much of a national interest, at that. Our trade is a pittance at 2B-3B. UKR is not a NATO ally. UKR is not an EU member. UKR is corrupt AF, and has embroiled not one, but two US POTUS' in scandal. The US has no longstanding ties to UKR. No special economic or cultural relationship exists between the US and UKR. In sum, UKR chose their own destiny in choosing war and conflict with RUS.

UKR needs to cut their losses; this is their fight, not ours. And not drag America into a prolonged conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary; that is not in our US national interest.

Last time I checked, the American flag was red, white and blue....not yellow and aqua.

[ObviouslyNotSpam]

Now do Israel.

[Commenter_XY]

That one is easy. There were dozens of Americans murdered and slaughtered by Hamas. Hamas made it an American fight. Unless you are cool with not responding to Judeocidal terror groups like Hamas that kill Americans because you think that is A-Ok.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

Those Americans should have been in America. Why weren't they?
They made a grave mistake. Not our problem.

If conservatives cause Ukraine to fall, I will root for Israel's similar demise more forcefully. Not that Joe Biden or other mainstream American leaders will need my input to conclude that Israel is no longer worthy of American support.

No free swings, clingers.

[Commenter_XY]

American Jewish lives don't matter very much, Arthur. Is that it?

[Jason Cavanaugh]

I’ve explained at least a half-dozen times to you why Ukraine matters. Your ignorance on the matter is willful at this point, motivated by your prejudice.

I’ve even provided the explanation again on this very page, which you claimed to have read.

“In sum, UKR chose their own destiny in choosing war and conflict with RUS.”

You do realize that Russia invaded Ukraine, right? You’re a goddamn Putin apologist who harbors a grudge against Ukraine, and that is the sole factor used to form your position on the matter.

[Commenter_XY]

I read your linked paper, Jason. The US faced a far worse strategic position post-WW2 militarily with RUS than today. The paper doesn't address that.

[Jason Cavanaugh]

Considering that every single conclusion you’ve offered is both unsupported and wrong, why would they?

[Jason Cavanaugh]

Now that I'm home:

Even if we assume that what you've said is true (it isn't), address the following:

Why would you want to weaken the United States' position?

Why would you want to improve Russia's?

Why do you want Russia to subjugate Ukraine (aside from your prejudice against them)?

Why are you in support of mass kidnapping? Is it related to your support of ethnic cleansing elsewhere?

Why do you want to further risk the security of the other 'historically Russian' (as Putin claims) States such as Moldova, Georgia, and the others?

Why do you want NATO and the United States to have to spend even more money and station more troops in Europe because you forfeited another sovereign country's land to our enemy?

Why do you want to show the world that the United States is a bunch of cuckolds who throw in the towel and abandon our friends?

How do you think that looks to China, and North Korea, and Iran?

How do you think that looks to our other allies?

The paper I've linked to and it's follow-up (which I'm certain you have not read) go into great detail about the strategic consequences of losing Ukraine. You have offered nothing but your bold, incorrect assertions. They are experts in the study and practice of war. You've offered nothing but ipse dixit assertions, based entirely on your own "they didn't like Jews 80 years ago" prejudice.

Prejudice which is proven by your own words, and your idiotic claims that Ukraine chose this war, and your casual dismissal (and complete avoidance) of the opinions of experts.

[Commenter_XY]

You are home safely. That is good.

Jason, reality is what it is. Russia holds Crimea, and annexed 20% of UKR. RUS will not be leaving. The UKR counteroffensive has evidently failed. The main general was canned. RUS have many, many troops close by; UKR needs more volunteers or conscripts fast. Now...

Do you expect American troops to push RUS out of UKR? I do not
Do you expect NATO to push RUS out of UKR? I do not

Ok, now tell me how RUS leaves UKR. If UKR runs out of Army, then what?

The time to make a good deal was long ago. That time is gone. There are no more good deals; the animosity is too great. Now it is cutting losses where possible. I do not assume RUS will just magically stop at the Dnieper river, btw. Do you?

We are running out of time to end the killing on terms that UKR can live with, and RUS accept.

[Jason Cavanaugh]

As expected, you did not address any of the questions posed. You are however, quick to parrot the complete and utter bullshit that Putin has any interest in peace! Someone who has paid attention to the conflict would be aware that Russia's stated goals have never changed. Those same people are aware that Russia continues to wage an offensive war, and continues to commit war crimes against both military members and civilians, something that peace-seeking countries do not do.

All you do is move goalposts the moment your ignorance is called out. Your strategic analysis of the consequences is utterly wrong and your political and social analysis of the fall of Ukraine is non-existent.

I could lecture you on the proposed fig leaf of what Putin would consider 'peace,' and the utter incompatibility with reality, but you've shown no insight of your own and we both know that you just don't give a fuck. (Just as a sample, how about I mention that Putin says Ukraine can't join NATO, but can join the EU, but only if a Russia-friendly leader is installed in Ukraine. Are you aware that one of the conditions of joining the EU is a functioning democracy? Does dictating to another country what geopolitical stance their leader MUST take sound like a functioning democracy to you?)

You are exactly the kind of useful idiot that Putin hopes for. Congratulations on taking Russia's side in this conflict and advocating against the United States' immediate, medium-term and long-term geopolitical interests and demonstrating that our commitment to friends and allies means absolutely nothing.

[rloquitur]

And yet Ilya has nothing to say about the brutal murder of Laken Riley by a fucking illegal immigrant, one who was previously arrested.

The accused should get a hearing--should only be to ascertain whether he did it, then, if so found, he should be summarily executed.