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Climate Scientist Michael Mann Wins Defamation Suit Against Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg
The jury found no real damages, but gave a sizeable punitive award that could be challenged on appeal.
Yesterday, a jury in the District of Columbia ruled for climate scientist Michael Mann in his long-running defamation suit against writers Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg, for blog posts the two had written challenging the validity of his research and comparing Penn State's investigation into Mann's alleged misconduct with the University's whitewash of Jerry Sandusky. The suit was initially filed in 2012, and initially included National Review and the Competitive Enterprise Institute as defendants.
The jury awarded Mann nominal compensatory damages of $1 against each defendant, but then added punitive damage awards of $1 million against Steyn and $1,000 against Simberg. I would think that these damages--if not the verdict itself--are likely to be appealed.
The punitive damages would seem to be the most vulnerable part of the judgment. Under existing Supreme Court precedent, excessive punitive damages violate Due Process. So, for example, in BMW of North America v. Gore, the Court held that a punitive damage award of $2 million was excessive given that the plaintiff had only been awarded $2,000 in compensatory damages. This 1000-to-1 ratio, the Court held, could not be justified even considering the extent to which the defendant had engaged in egregious conduct.
There is some question whether BMW would continue to attract a majority of the Court today. That decision was 5-4. Justice Stevens wrote the majority, joined by Justices O'Connor, Kennedy, Souter, and Breyer. Justices Scalia, Thomas, Ginsburg and Rehnquist dissented. Nonetheless, the BMW holding is binding on lower courts.
While Mann prevailed at trial, the proceedings also unearthed some slimy conduct on his part, including his disparagement of scientists with whom he disagrees and behind-the-scenes efforts to suppress articles by scientists he does not like.
This long-running litigation may not be over. Steyn's camp has indicated they intend to challenge the punitive damages award (if not other aspects of the decision). Mann's attorney also told the NYT they still plan to appeal the prior decisions that had removed CEI and National Review from the case: "Asked about Competitive Enterprise Institute and National Review, John Williams said, 'They're next.'"
* * *
A post-script. Here is a disclaimer I have included in prior posts about this litigation:
DISCLOSURE: As I've noted in prior posts on this case, I am a contributing editor at National Review Online, which means I have a fancier byline when I submit articles to the publication and occasionally contribute to The Corner and Bench Memos. It is not a salaried position. I also worked at the Competitive Enterprise Institute from 1991 to 2000 — many years before the events at issue in this litigation. If either of these facts makes you suspect bias on my part, so be it.
Note that while I was once something of a climate skeptic (much like Jerry Taylor), my views have changed. Today I have profound disagreements with CEI on the subject of climate change, having argued in defense of the scientific "consensus" on climate change and in favor of a carbon tax, among other measures to address the climate threat. My interest in this litigation arises from this implications for robust debate on matters of public concern, as I explained in this post.
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The whole case for defamation rested on the claim that Mann was financially hurt by these blog posts. An award of $1 for damages makes it clear the jury didn’t buy that at all.
This may have had to do with the dirty trick Mann’s lawyer tried to pull on the jury. Over the 12 year course of this legal fight, Mann initially claimed he had lost millions of dollars. Unable to list any specifics, he later corrected that claim to hundreds of thousands in lost grants. At trial, however, he was unable to identify any specific loss, but his lawyer tried to sneak in the original claim as evidence anyway! Of course he was caught red-handed, and even lectured by the judge.
And in closing, Mann's attorney asked the jury to decide on something not even being tried. The judge literally interrupted him and had to re-instruct the jury.
I can tell you that juries don’t like being manipulated like that. I myself sat on a jury for three weeks in a medical harm trial, and something very similar was attempted. We were really steamed about it, but we forced ourselves to ignore it, and render a judgment systematically.
If I were Steyn, I’d absolutely appeal.
Why the hell would Mann appeal? If he has no evidence, it will not suddenly appear. And it is exceptionally difficult to point to any damages the charlatan suffered.
Steyn should appeal the punitive damages and seek, if possible, to go to a court that is actually remotely impartial.
Sorry, typo now corrected
It's true, I guess, that the charges of fraud, while defamatory, were such complete and absolute bollocks that nobody of repute gave them any actual credence.
"hide the decline"
"The same out-of-context-quote more than a decade later."
Well maybe fraud was too strong, Mann selected his data to give the results he was looking for, and rejected data that told a different story. Or in one case he used proxy data "upside down" showing medieval warming as cooling so he could attribute 20th century land use anomalies as warming, whether he did it intentionally or just didn't understand the data, or the statistical method is an open question:
" To this, Mann et al. (2009) responded:
The claim that “upside down” data were used is bizarre. Multivariate regression methods are insensitive to the sign of predictors. Screening, when used, employed one-sided tests only when a definite sign could be a priori reasoned on physical grounds. Potential nonclimatic influences on the Tiljander and other proxies were discussed in the SI, which showed that none of our central conclusions relied on their use.
McIntyre has also presented some claims relating to this before in his website. Here’s to my knowledge the first of his posts on the issue, saying:
By flipping the data opposite to the interpretation of Tiljander et al, Mann shows the Little Ice Age in Finland as being warmer than the MWP, 100% opposite to the interpretation of the authors and the paleoclimate evidence. The flipping is done because the increase in varve thickness due to construction and agricultural activities is interpreted by Mann et al as a “nonlocal statistical relationship” or “teleconnection” to world climate."
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/06/28/tiljander/
In short, feaud is not too strong a word, but not strong enough.
I think we should abolish the DC District court and give all it's business to the Southern Division of Maryland (in Greenbelt, a DC Suburb). Likewise abolish the DC Circuit Court and assign its business to the 4th Circuit, which does cover the geographic region.
If necessary, segregate government appeals and assign them randomly to the various circuits. This really would be fair as the circuits (collectively) represent America, and these cases are of national importance.
The DC District is only 64.1 square miles of land -- the CITY of LA is 469.5 -- it's just too small an area to pull jurors from to have any scintilla of a fair trial, while Southern Maryland is the DC suburbs. Include DC itself in its jury pool and there would be fair trials.
We all know that the DCDC is a joke -- Jan 6th has shown that -- and this really is the fair solution.
This would actually be constitutional; The Constitution says,
"The Trial of all Crimes, except in Cases of Impeachment, shall be by Jury; and such Trial shall be held in the State where the said Crimes shall have been committed; but when not committed within any State, the Trial shall be at such Place or Places as the Congress may by Law have directed."
DC, of course, is not a state. So Congress could pass a law requiring trials involving DC to occur wherever it wanted. So long as the legislation came before the case, of course.
Nah, the right wing knows they’re fucked legally and so go after out legal institutions, from prosecutors to judges to juries.
If you actually cared about jury bias, land area would be a stupid metric to pick. But you don’t; you’re just posting.
Oh no the harsh and unaccountable criminal justice system we championed is going after my friends?!? That’s not supposed to happen?!?
Yeah, it's not about the size of the district, it's that the district is crazy partisan; Over 90% Democratic. Even an impartially selected jury starts out stacked against Republican defendants, and even a minimal exercise of pre-emptory challenges will almost always be capable of producing a jury with no Republicans if the prosecution wants to. (Party registration is a public record in DC, so the prosecution DOES know the registration of the jurors if it wants.)
If you're going to have trials involving federal issues in a country split down the middle, the jury should be drawn from a pool that's split down the middle, not one comprised entirely of one of the two major parties.
It's not just that Brett -- it's partisan because it is incestial -- it's so small that there is no diversity of municipalities.
Look at it this way -- everyone in the jury pool went to the same high school, everyone voted for/against the same slate of municipal leaders, everyone interacts with the same police department, etc.
Everyone got woken up at 2 AM by the *same* thunderstorm, etc.
There is no diversity in the literal sense.
everyone in the jury pool went to the same high school, everyone voted for/against the same slate of municipal leaders, everyone interacts with the same police department, etc.
Must be an awfully big high school. DC’s population is about 700,000.
Besides isn’t what you say true of lots of places, many of them much smaller than DC?
Federal Districts?
Maybe SNDY.
As Brett notes DC is highly partisan
The jury still voted in favor of the plaintiff in spite of multitude of perjury statements he made that were exposed on cross.
The plaintiff's star reputation witness perjury was exposed on cross
the plaintiff's data manipulation and poor stat analysis was exposed by the the defense expert witness
The plaintiff's hiding adverse data was exposed.
The plaintiff won solely on the choice of venue, not on the merits, not an the applicable standards set out in harte hanks or sullivan.
Trumpian levels of 'they're all agin us.'
Relitigating the case, partisan Internet man finds it actually goes the other way.
The only conclusion is jury bias!
This is a great example of being utterly closed off from reality.
Tom didn't follow the trial, but saw someone on Truthsocial or Fox or whatever tell him that Mann was going to lose. Since Mann won, it can't be that Tom is gullible enough to listen to the wrong people; it must be that black people are biased.
I guess Democrats shouldn't be allowed on juries, per Brett.
Given that no modern Democrat gives a shit about the facts or truth in any given situation and instead only cares about giving their side power, yeah that seems about right.
"Note that while I was once something of a climate skeptic (much like Jerry Taylor), my views have changed. Today I have profound disagreements with CEI on the subject of climate change, having argued in defense of the scientific "consensus" on climate change and in favor of a carbon tax, among other measures to address the climate threat. My interest in this litigation arises from this implications for robust debate on matters of public concern, as I explained in this post."
So....you're an idiot.
Got it.
We also might need to deal with the EXTREME politicization in courts now. DC juries are so lopsided that "justice" involving any court there is a misnomer at best. Perhaps Congress should just shove DC into MD and be done away with it. The people there are too stupid to govern themselves.
.
Yet another problem enlargement of the Supreme Court can and should solve.
See you down the road apiece, clingers.
Kirkland, if you are going to spew this garbage, you ought to at least explain it.
HOW would expanding SCOTUS deal with the problem that the DC District Court covers only 61.4 miles of land, 18 of which is owned by the Federal Government. So you are talking 43.4 square miles, and then you deduct roads, city parks, shopping malls and you have a very small geographic area where people actually live. It's instinctual.
Now let's say we put 900 judges on the Supreme Court -- how would that help the DCDC???
Kirkland's a Troll. It's only reason to keep breathing is to post stupid, inflammatory shit in an attempt to prompt a response.
The Volokh Conspiracy's fans are every bit as respected, respectable, and relevant to the American mainstream as the Volokh Conspirators are.
Carry on, clingers. We will continue to let you know how far and how long, of course. Thank you for your continuing compliance with the preferences of better Americans, the culture war's winners.
Congradulations Kirkland -- you are now the first person I have blocked. Not because I disagree with you but because you don't have anything to say....
I quantify the number of racial slurs published by this white, male, right-wing blog twice weekly . . . Dr. Ed objects precisely because the frequency of racial slurs at the Volokh Conspiracy provides plenty for me to say and, like the rest of this blog's right-wingers, he finds my references to this blog's incessant bigotry inconvenient.
You choose to get offended. You're a wimp. Repent.
This case wasn’t in district court, you giant doofus.
You're right. What the hell was it doing there?!?
Stimburg is a resident of Wyoming.
Stein is a resident of New Hampshire.
Mann teaches at UPenn and I suspect resides in PA.
All other parties had been removed. How did the DC Superior Court (which technically is unconstitutional) maintain jurisdiction?
I dont recall the reasoning, but since the statement was disseminated across the entire US (and world), the plaintiff could bring suit in any jurisdiction that published the statement.
He picked the most favorable jurisdiction. It happens on both sides of the political spectrum. Same reason that prominent democrats could almost never get convicted in DC,
There is no such person as "Stimburg," and if there were, he would not be a resident of Wyoming. There is no such person as "Stein," and if there were, he would not be a resident of New Hampshire. There is such a person as Mann, but he does not teach at UPenn.
I don't know what "all other parties had been removed" means; if by "removed" you mean "dismissed," that's a correct if inartfully phrased statement, but it's also utterly irrelevant.
It's not clear why you think the DC Superior Court — which is not unconstitutional, "technically" or otherwise — could not "maintain" jurisdiction. Nobody challenged personal jurisdiction in the first place.
So….you’re an idiot.
The kind of thing an idiot would say.
You're a scientifically illiterate poltroon clearly.
Can you even state the grounds for advancing the GW hypothesis in the first place?
Yes. Global cooling hadn't worked, the Vietnam War was over, the Cold War was winding down, and they needed something new to scare the public.
Nope. Try again, this time with actual science.
Why? Global warming is backed by so many lies, any actual science is hidden.
Hidden from you, for sure.
I didn't ask about current science or research. I asked whether you could "state the grounds for advancing the GW hypothesis in the first place?"
Well?
As soon as Mann said that they had to "massage the data" any Science went out the window.
This is your brain on Just So stories.
Who is 'they?'
This sounded like Robot Chicken Palpatine in my head.
Welp gonna have to youtube that sketch again.
"What the hell is an aluminum falcon?"
And who's going to give me a loan jackhole?! You? You got an ATM on that Torso Lite-Bright?!
Yeah. And isn't it convenient that there was a papal schism after the Black Death had subsided and the Hundred Years War had entered a low intensity period!? They always need to keep the rubes obsessed with the "current thing."
Ahh, so your a conspiratorial idiot.
Oh come on.
This is Bellmore-level conspiratorial thinking.
Never forget that Michael Mann was a UMass Amherst graduate student when he came up with the hockey stick.
He wasn't. A postdoc is not a graduate student. And why would that matter to anyone on the planet anyway?
At the time, AT umASS, post docs were considered graduate students.
So, combine racism with scientific ignorance, and you get damikesc.
Combine inbreeding with poor logical skills and you get David Nieporent.
I'm no fan of punitive damages. I don't think it's the job of the civil courts to punish people. But a rule based on the ratio of punitive to compensatory damages doesn't seem to work very well in cases with nominal damages, like here.
Or maybe it does work well, on the theory that people shouldn't be heavily punished for harmless offenses.
A cap of 10:1 for cases with nominal damages wouldn't just prevent heavy punishment, but effectively all punishment. That would be tantamount to a rule that cases with nominal damages can't have punitive damages awards at all.
And that's bad?
A lot of states don't think so because that is a common rule: no punitive damages without an actual compensatory award.
If there are no real damages, why should there be any punitive damages, let alone such exorbitant ones?
That depends on what you mean by "real damages". Arguably it is exactly some cases where the damage is difficult to quantify or compensate that punitive damages are more suited. (Again assuming that they ever are.)
LawTalkingGuy's quotes from the BMW judgment below show the Supreme Court making that exact point.
It's not hard to quantify, they did quantify it: $1.
Juries can typically only award money verdicts. Nominal damages are essentially like a legal fiction designed to allow the jury to award some type of declaratory relief. They don't actually think the "value" is quantified at $1.
I don't mean that they meant he lost $1 of earnings. I meant that they quantified his loss, of whatever nature, as being bupkis.
Look at his career -- he went from being a Post Doc at UMass Amherst to tenure track asst professor at the Univ of Virginia to being a tenured professor (and more) at Penn State.
That's like a judge going from state court to Federal court and then to a Circuit Court of Appeals (if not SCOTUS) -- his reputation wasn't harmed in any way!!!
The next issue is whether plaintiff's attorneys' fees are awarded.
"That would be tantamount to a rule that cases with nominal damages can’t have punitive damages awards at all."
I'd be cool with that, but it's actually a rule that cases with nominal damages can only have nominal punitive damages awards, which seems perfectly reasonable.
Yes, it would – which is the point. Civil trials are “to make the other party whole”, not to punish.
What do you think the purposes of punitive damages are? If you’re not sure, there’s a valuable hint hiding in the name!
The same purpose as with criminal penalties: Deterrence.
And we don't NEED to deter harmless offenses!
What Brett said, to which I will add that deterrence is not a proper objective for a civil trial.
Which, yes, means that I believe our entire structure of precedents on punitive damages are built on a foundation of sand.
Folks on here coming out against some baseline pre-US common law concepts like the crime of conspiracy, and punitive damages.
Though they only realize they are bad when they turn out to be bad for their own side.
Interrogating our system is a good, progressive practice. So maybe these are good questions.
But getting there via special pleading won’t get much of a conversation going.
.
Is that
(1) a South Texas College of Law Houston degree talking,
(2) something you think you remember from a discount homeschooling outline,
or
(3) what you heard on Fox and NewsMax last night?
Whatever the source is, he's right. Your ad hominem attacks fail.
No, he’s not right. What do you suppose he is quoting? The purpose of civil courts is to render civil judgments. Some civil judgments make people whole. Some are intended to punish or deter, like punitive damages. Have you never heard of a civil penalty, enforced by a civil court?
What about damages that aren't easily translated into monetary terms?
Seems like a solution desperately seeking a problem.
Remember, in this case, Mann could not identify ANY harm to him.
Not talking about this case specifically.
What would be an example of such "damages that aren't easily translated into monetary terms?" Right now, your question is too vague. It's fundamentally unanswerable, because you haven't clarified what damages you would seek to deter via punitive damages.
The further you wrench up punative damages out of the range of actual damages, the more it approaches a criminal fine than a civil one, philosophically.
I'm not sure that I agree with that. Every penny the defendant gets above their true damage is, philosophically, a windfall for them that cannot be justified based on the logic and purpose of normal civil litigation. That is true for antitrust triple damages as much as for a case like this one with $1 of nominal damages.
Are you two actually disagreeing here?
You mean the plaintiff.
Wow, Thomas must have had strong feelings about BMW v Gore - he dissented twice!
Oops. Should have been Rehnquist.
If he could have done, he would have done. 🙂
Maybe Thomas persuaded a majority of his colleagues that his wife should get a vote.
How's the court packing coming like you promised would happen? Barrett could use some more company.
This case is a travesty. Mann lied in his pleadings, and the reference to Trump in closing argument should have earned Mann's lawyer a 179 day sentence for contempt of court.
I'm not a lawyer, but my understanding is that contempt of court only justifies detention when there is continued contempt (i.e. when a party or actor is out of compliance with the court's order in an ongoing way). Simply apologizing or retracting the claim is enough to end detention. There are criminal contempt of court charges, but those don't allow for summary incarceration and require a trial.
Is there any circumstance where a judge can summarily impose a fixed duration punishment for contempt that isn't based on ongoing non-compliance?
Note that none of this has anything to do with the case at hand, I have no idea who any of these people are, you just seemed very fixation on this very specific punishment and I'm wondering if I'm missing something.
“I’m wondering if I’m missing something.”
I don’t think so, although this individual did claim to be “BigLaw trained” so perhaps we’re both missing something?
I am sorry. You mean that trial judges have to follow the law? Isn't that why they say, "Take it up with the court of appeals." The lawyer knew better; yet did it anyway. And this in closing argument in a 12 year old case. You guys probably don't care about the abuse of the court system, but some of us still do, and make no mistake, the court system was abused here. The proper remedy for this obvious attempt to get the jury to vote with their partisanship would be dismissal of the case with prejudice, and the lawyer pays for the proceedings and spends time in the pokey.
Yes. Contempt committed in the judge's presence. See, e.g., Fed. R. Crim. P. 42(b):
(b) Summary Disposition. Notwithstanding any other provision of these rules, the court (other than a magistrate judge) may summarily punish a person who commits criminal contempt in its presence if the judge saw or heard the contemptuous conduct and so certifies; a magistrate judge may summarily punish a person as provided in 28 U.S.C. §636(e). The contempt order must recite the facts, be signed by the judge, and be filed with the clerk.
.
Are you a lawyer? Do you have a college degree?
Backwater religious schooling doesn't count.
Accreditors say otherwise. "Backwater religious schooling" has been getting better academic results than government-run schools. Maybe their opinions are worth considering.
Rloquitur - good point on lying in his pleadings.
Counting all the lies / misrepsentations, perjury, etc in the pleadings, interrogatories, depositions, oral testimony, etc., mann probably topped 200+. He won the case, not on the merits, not on the law, not on the evidence presented. He won because he is one of the God's of climate science and the DC jury pool is heavy worshipers of the religion.
fwiw, yes I fully agree the earth is in a warming phase and that the increasing co2 contributes to some of the warming.
A few comments on the legal aspects, since everyone else is going to be arguing over the usual BS.
"While Mann prevailed at trial, the proceedings also unearthed some slimy conduct on his part, including his disparagement of scientists with whom he disagrees and behind-the-scenes efforts to suppress articles by scientists he does not like."
Not sure why this was included; this is a legal claim, not an equitable claim, and is completely irrelevant.
As for the punitive damages issue, as I stated in another thread, BMW v. Gore was a terrible decision at the time, and it hasn't gotten any better with the passage of time. Given that it was issued when states were already reforming punitive damages, it arguably did more damage than it did good, and it provided no real guidance to punitive damages while making a mockery of the process by constitutionalizing state claims.
That said, until it is overturned, it is the law, and will be an issue for appeal.
There's also State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. v. Campbell, 538 U.S. 408 (2003). That decision said a punitive damages award that's greater than 9 times the compensatory damages awarded violates the Due Process Clause (of the 5th Amendment if a federal trial, of the 14th Amendment if a State trial). This punitive damages award clearly violates Gore and State Farm, so Mann can't get more than $9 in punitive damages unless both of those decisions are overruled.
Soon after the State Farm case came down I tried a case involving my client’s unintentional disclosure to a mother of a girl’s abortion. Punitive damages were awarded and in the punitive damages trial my adversary was careful to suggest to the jury a number exactly nine times the amount of the compensatory award (i.e., he wanted to make sure to set a nonattackable “ceiling” on the award).
I’m fine with abortion, but uneasy with laws against a (presumably minor)’s doctor not notifying parents, regardless of how many hay stick out of their mouths.
In any case, punative damages seem even further afield. Punishment for telling the parents the state of their child? Again, seems to get into criminal behavior punishment masquerading as civil.
She was 19, not a minor, which probably changes the analysis.
Yeah that would be a problem.
Is that what that case said, though?
Always struck me as interesting how Stevens wrote Gore and Apprendi. Gore is jury skeptical and Apprendi is jury praising. But both are arguably about the same issue: who should have the most say in punishment. If there is a through-line to both cases, for Stevens anyway, it seems to simply be balance. In civil cases juries had way too much power to punish. In criminal ones legislatures and judges had way too much power to punish.,
loki13, what would happen if SCOTUS overruled BMW? If BMW is not the right standard, what standard would you have instead?
I don't understand the $1 damage but $1MM punitive, from a jury perspective. How do you logically reconcile them?
You logically reconcile them by saying that Mann was libeled,¹ but couldn't establish actual financial harm, but that doesn't mean that defamers shouldn't be disincentivized from defaming people.
¹I am not endorsing or criticizing that finding; just describing it.
Ohhhh...sort of like the jury saying: Look, Mann lost no financial money (that he could prove), but Steyn should not have said what he said. Now I understand.
Ok, so that 1 mil is compensation for something like the intentional infliction of emotional distress, or similar.
And how does imposing a $1 million fine (excuse me, punitive damages) for "emotional distress or something similar" fit with the First Amendment's free speech guarantees?
How can we have public debate over contentious issues if a heated blog post can realistically result in twelve years of drawn-out court proceedings, who knows how much in legal fees, and a $1 million fine to boot?
The Supreme Court has explained many times how these sorts of actions fit with the First Amendment's free speech guarantees. NYT v. Sullivan and its progeny.
Interesting. You proudly "virtue signal" that used to not be in the Cult and then announce your membership in the Cult. Glad to know you are proud of your conversion. I thought the Artic ice was supposed to be long gone by now. And the Maldives. Are they still here??
It's not a binary between "the ice caps will be gone by 2020" and "it's all bollocks". For instance, you can believe that it's an issue that we are gonna have to grapple with AND that the best way to deal with the issue is via the free market (ie make a one-time adjustment to the market by internalizing the externality of carbon via a carbon tax, then roll the dice and watch the solution materialize directly from the invisible hand).
There are plenty of people, though, who will claim that because one scientist made an extreme prediction, that didn't eventuate, it is indeed all bollocks. The same people will claim that two weeks of unusually cold weather in whatever shithole part of the US they live in disproves GW.
Indeed; I am convinced by a much greater margin that the "usual suspects" are exploiting MMCC to the fullest than I am of MMCC itself. I'm not a scientist, but I do know a bit about "people"...
That doesn't change the fact that the alarmists were catastrophically wrong. Stop defending them.
'is via the free market'
The free market is driving it, or the version of the free market as it currently exists as there has never been a use of the term 'free markets' that didn't come with qualifiers up the spout. I don't care what your ideological position is on free markets, but they're driving it. To put it another way - if free markets existed, and they were the best way to deal with climate change, they would have dealt with it by now.
Well put!
The problem I have with Mann & Co is that they don't control for other quite relevant variables like the Earth wobbling in space, and variations in solar output. Or natural cycles of glaciers advancing and receding -- which they still are -- we don't have miles of ice over Albany, NY, do we?
The problem you have with Mann & Co is that because the right has absolutely no solutions to offer to real-world problems any more, if they ever did, you're obliged to claim to believe to most ridiculous crap to deny the real-world problems are real.
Your logical fallacy is the presumption that Mann has the correct REASON for the problem.
Let me give you an extreme example:
We have a problem with Fentanyl.
Some argue that the problem exists because young people don't go to church anymore, and the solution is mandatory church attendance.
Is it possible to admit that we have a problem with Fentanyl WITHOUT agreeing that it is because young people don't go to church?
Yes, Mann, and every other scientist in the field, have the correct reason for the problem. Go to church and stop lying.
The data doesn't suggest that. Mann has admitted it.
Dr. Ed is not only a historian, psychologist, lawyer, and educator, but he's also a climatologist.
Don't forget steam-boiler maintenance engineer.
A good example: There was a winter storm in Boston a few years back and it had a 2-3 foot storm surge. Dumpsters were floating down Atlantic Avenue.
No one mentioned that it was concurrent with an astronomically high tide in excess of 13 feet. (Tides vary because of gravity and -- in the early spring because the Moon is physically closer.)
No one mentioned that 13+2=15 -- OR that 15 is half of 30, the estimated height of the storm surge from the Hurricane of 1938.
Show me dumpsters floating down Atlantic Avenue at LOW tide and you'll have my attention. But not during one of the highest half dozen high tides of the year....
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
I am greatly amused by the prospect that you could even name a climate model off the top of your head, much less the idea that you've inspected one in even the cursory level of detail to determine that:
a) Those "relevant variables" are ignored.
and b) Those "relevant variables" would actually have a measurable impact on the results.
It's not a cult.
Can you pass the challenge of answering the question, what is the scientific basis for advancing the GW hypothesis?
You've shown you can't do the reverse.
If you can reverse global warming you need to get on that asap.
It isn't even global warming anymore -- now it is climate change.
It's the same thing.
Nope. I am quite capable of it. But no-one asked me to. Meanwhile, I asked you and Damikesc and neither of you managed what is in scientific terms an incredibly easy question to answer.
Care to try again, or will you keep ducking my question?
"ANSWER MY QUESTION!"
I have to admit that while I think I generally agree with you on this topic, your question as asked above is not answerable. Would you care to rephrase it?
How about: what was the scientific basis for the original hypothesis that human-caused global warming would occur?
I still don't expect an intelligent answer from the denialists.
That CO2 and water vapour in glass tubes was remarkably effective at trapping heat and seemed to be acting as a thermal resistor ? I have to admit I have no idea where you are going with this. This should be entertaining.
Oh, that’s easy. It’s all based on Prof James Hansen’s study of the Venusian atmosphere and his attempts to explain why the surface of Venus is hotter even that of Mercury (which is considerably closer to the Sun). Hansen correctly deduced that the (misnamed) greenhouse effect of the Venusian atmosphere’s CO2 content was responsible for the difference between the observed temperatures and what would be expected in the absense of atmosphere.
Hansen then went on to extrapolate his findings to the terrestrial atmosphere which has been showing an increase in CO2 concentration which is reasonably well correlated to the increase in fossil fuel since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
Where Hansen went wrong (and hacks like Mann launched into insanity) was in that extrapolation to a completely different system. The Venusian atmosphere is somewhere over 95% CO2 so CO2’s thermal effects dominate the thermodynamic exchange equations. In the terrestrial atmosphere, on the other hand, water vapor is far and away the dominant greenhouse gas. CO2 constitutes less than a fraction of 1%. The catastrophic climate change models assume that water’s effects are held constant (the models remain incompetent to handle water vapor) and that therefore any changes to even a minor component like CO2 would be amplified over time.
What we know instead is that water vapor (unlike CO2) undergoes significant phase changes at atmospheric temperatures and pressures and that these phase changes create their own feedback effects on climate. The few climate change models that attempt to accomodate the water cycle assume that any feedback effects will be positive (that is, CO2 incrementally heats the atmosphere making it able to hold more evaporated water which also heats the atmosphere). In fact, the available evidence suggests very strongly that the net feedback effects are negative.
It’s also worth pointing out that the geological record strongly shows that atmospheric CO2 levels are primarily the result of oceanic outgassing and that the apparent correlation between CO2 levels and fossil fuel use may be merely that – correlation without causation.
The proper research question is not ‘why have temperatures increased recently’ but ‘why are global terrestrial temperatures so remarkably stable over time’?
It's way older than this. He said "original hypothesis". I am trying to figure out which of Fourier, Tyndall or Arrhenius he means by this.
I suppose that another possibility is that he is ignorant of all of them. Hopefully, he will tell us what he is thinking.
I knew of Tyndall, but not Fourier (in this context) but I was specifically thinking of Arrhenius's paper, which simply and straightforwardly lays out the basis of the hypothesis.
But it is significant that denialists are never able to state what is a very simple idea - if they knew more than fuck-all.
And one of the good things about approaching GW from the base hypothesis is that it's easy to respond to questions like, "what evidence would persuade you against AGW?"
Very few denialists have ever responded to the complementary question - though I did get a terrific response once on another forum, when I asked "what probability of GW occurring would you require in order to think that it was a 50% chance?" and back came the answer, 95%.
The physical effects of CO2 would produce an increase of approximately 1.1 degree per doubling of CO2 concentration. The climate models assume that water vapour will produce a forcing of temperature greatly in excess of what the physics of CO2 will produce. That is just not being borne out both from physical observations and from the fact that each succeeding generation of models has to be adjusted downward in ECS to get it closer to actual observations. Satellite observations show a remarkably steady 0.14 degree per decade of warming, so by 2100 we will see about another 1.1 degree of warming. Is that a problem?
No, because despite Mann's fiddled data, we did have a Medieval Warm Period about 1 degree warmer than present, and there is good evidence for the Roman Warm Period being 2 degrees warmer than present. Going back a little further, even a temperature increase of 4 degrees would be substantially beneficial and take us back to temperatures during the Minoan Warm Period. So no need for hand wringing and hair pulling.
'It’s all based on'
Sweet tap-dancing Jesus.
You haven't refuted anything.
.
Your statement is correct, but in a profoundly stupid way.
Artic Ice was a Coors beer, long discontinued (but not before generating some memorable legal issues), you illiterate, bigoted, Volokh-class rube.
So Elrich and friends were all talking about beer this whole time? In their scientific papers? Who woulda thought...
Or maybe, just maybe, those "illiterate, bigoted, Volokh-class rubes" actually know what they're talking about? Has that EVER occurred in your mind?
IIRC isn't the availability of punitive damages when the damages only finds nominal damages actual a minority rule? Isn't the traditional rule that you have to prove actual damage, even if its small?
It also seems unusual to speak of "ratios" to a nominal damages award. A nominal damages award is more akin to a common-law jury given declaratory judgment that existed before the creation of statutory declaratory judgment actions. (That appears to be how Doug Laycock and Rick Hasen characterize it).
So there is no "ratio" of damages to a declaratory judgment action.
So in states where this is available, the question, shouldn't be only about "ratios" and the Gore court actually said this, perhaps alluding to but not directly addressing the nominal damages problem:
"Indeed, low awards of compensatory damages may properly support a higher ratio than high compensatory awards, if, for example, a particularly egregious act has resulted in only a small amount of economic damages. A higher ratio may also be justified in cases in which the injury is hard to detect or the monetary value of noneconomic harm might have been difficult to determine. It is appropriate, therefore, to reiterate our rejection of a categorical approach." Bmw of N. Am. v. Gore, 517 U.S. 559, 582, 116 S.Ct. 1589, 134 L.Ed.2d 809 (1996)
I don't think it is accurate to compare a nominal damages award and a declaratory judgment. A declaratory judgment is sought for some future purpose, e.g., to guide parties to a contract in their performance going forward. Such judgments can be very consequential. A nominal damage award in a tort case, on the other hand, is essentially a statement by the fact-finder that, even if liability was technically proven, the plaintiff is not really entitled to anything. It is a defense verdict in all but name.
One of the many problems with punitive damages, which this case well illustrates, is that it allows juries to ignore the lack of evidence of damages and instead punish a litigant it doesn't like. Mann's case, and in particular the closing argument in reply, encouraged the jury to do exactly that - forget about the law of defamation and focus on how these horrible people are spreading misinformation about climate change. So the judge spends all this time charging the law on liability and damages and the end result is the jury has this somewhat standardless hook to turn a defense victory into a plaintiff's victory.
I think Gore was wrongly decided. I don't think there's any proper constitutional objection to punitive damage awards. All bad ideas aren't unconstitutional. But, if I'm being honest, I'm glad Gore is likely to wipe out the punitive damage awards here because otherwise they will hand an unwarranted and unjust windfall to a plaintiff who should have been laughed out of court over a decade ago.
I saw some second- or third-hand reporting that the jury rejected some but not all of the defamation claims. Anyone know a link to the verdict sheet?
Reason is, if Mann cheated on some but not all of his publications, then it's hard to see how there can be any damages at all. There was a case in Britain like that about a notorious Holocaust denier, David Irving, who sued Deborah Lipstadt and Penguin Books for claiming he had distorted or falsified historical evidence in his works. The court ruled that some, but not all, of the claims were proven true. But that was enough to kill the whole suit. A researcher that falsifies some claims is toast, regardless that not all were.
A researcher that falsifies some claims is toast, regardless that not all were.
Is there a threshold? = The court ruled that some, but not all, of the claims were proven true. But that was enough to kill the whole suit.
They did not. Here's the verdict sheet. Hope that link works.
Thank you so much for the link!
Looks like They only accepted that 2/4 of Simberg's and 2/3 of Steyn's statements were liable.
Not totally accurate. They found that all the requisite elements of defamation were met as to 2 out of 4 Simberg statements and 2 out of 3 Steyn statements. As to the rest, not all elements were met. Now what that means is not clear — did they reject them because they were not proven false, or they were opinion, or were uttered without malice? Can’t tell from the verdict sheet.
I don’t see the difference, in terms of defamation law, between Simberg’s statement (a), which they rejected, and (d), which they did not. Both seem different ways of saying the same thing — Mann manipulated and falsified data. True (d) makes a comparison to child molestation (although not really, it’s a metaphor) which (a) doesn’t, but that part strikes me as opinion.
As for (c), that is not even directed to Mann but to university officials who supposedly whitewashed an investigation.
I do think it’s fair to say that Mann did not prove his whole case, although he proved enough to get nominal damages and punitive damages.
It was a DC jury being asked to reject their religion if not their livelihood and they couldn't defend the guy but twisted themselves in knots to not be wrong personally.
...and all of this took 12 years to go to trial. What's wrong with this picture?
I seem to recall back when this used to be a regular subject on the VC that Mann was toast and discovery was going to expose the fraud once and for all. Speaking of predictions that failed to come about.
Well, I mean, it did expose fraud, which is why Mann only got $1 in damages because the jury concluded not everything Mann published on the topic was fraudulent.
It also exposed that the jury really did not like Stein exposing the fraud, I guess.
Or it could mean that the defamation did not result in provable damages.
In other words, that despite the defamation, Mann continued to have the same professional career that the would have otherwise. But the jury still felt that the defamation was morally repugnant and should be deterred, and that's why they ordered the punitive damages.
loki13, is that what you think happened...what you posit?
‘because the jury concluded not everything Mann published on the topic was fraudulent.’
The defamatory remarks about his work being fraudulent were such obvious bullshit nobody who didn’t already have brain worms about Global Warming gave them credence.
It’s astonishing that you’ve concluded a court case which decided accusations of fraud were defamatory means that there was fraud. In the same way someone wandering down the street with their trousers round their ankles is astonishing.
It's worth noting that in Mann's earlier lawsuit against Timothy Ball, the case eventually was dismissed with prejudice, and Mann ordered to pay Ball's expenses, because Mann simply and repeatedly refused to comply with court ordered discovery. Totally blew it off, as a matter of fact.
So it's not like Mann enters any litigation like this with a presumption he's on the up and up. He has a track record in these cases.
Yeah, I heard that discredited climate change and bankrupted Mann, too, and yet it turns out, it did neither.
Mann has refused to pay the judgement awarded in the Canadian case leaving Ball (now dead) bankrupt.
By the way, who is paying for Mann's legal representation? Mann has said it wasn't him.
A dead person can't be bankrupt.
Ok, his estate. It still establishes that Mann isn't just a vexatious litigant, he's a deadbeat vexatious litigant.
Hang on, aren't you the apologist for Trump being a living deadbeat?
Right.
Brett is only against deadbeats he dislikes.
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The Volokh Conspiracy is a reliable source for legal insights from the disaffected, on-the-spectrum, uninformed, half-educated, bigoted, white, male perspective.
That's perhaps because what you call the "disaffected, on-the-spectrum, uninformed, half-educated, bigoted, white, male perspective" recognizes facts and evidence, and that Adler actually does his legal research, unlike you.
Repent of your bigotry. You've been reported.
I seem to recall back when this used to be a regular subject on the VC that Mann was toast and discovery was going to expose the fraud once and for all.
Just like the President would expose all the corrupt voting, I suppose, proving it wasn't just misleading hot air for the echo chambered.
That one.
Calling Mikey Mann a scientist is defamation against all the real scientists out there. He's a hack who can't manage the statistics basic to his field. He regularly commits fundamental errors and abuses the pal-review process to cover them up.
This verdict is a travesty and I hope to see it quickly overturned on appeal.
You dumbasses understand that mainstream legal academia views the Volokh Conspirators precisely as you clingers view Mann . . . right?
Still working on your inferiority complex, I see.
How much more work could it possibly need? I'd figure Kirkland had already maximized his inferiority out, being inferior to intestinal bacterial films.
Why isn't Mann a public figure?
He is.
For those not paying attention, this is like the dozenth time Dr. Ed has said something here at the VC which reveals that he mistakenly thinks that public figures can't sue for defamation.
And Mann already owes Simburg 4x his total 'win' for previous penalties
Steyn should have just said, "Mann lied about being a Nobel Laureate. Falsus in uno; falsus in toto. Is that libel?"
Mann is an enemy of freedom.
Steyn actually said almost exactly that in his opening statement:
Rloquitur
good point
Mann gets caught repetitively with perjury throughout his pleadings depositions, and oral testimony, hides the r2 .03 verification stats, but somehow the jury, and the pro mann commentators think nothing in MBH98 & 99 is fraudulent or manipulated or confidence levels statistically valid.
I'd like to see that twit Kirkland address that issue.
Which issue would the right-wing bigot like to see me address?
Most sentient beings likely would put their money on the quote in my post, conveniently found immediately above the one you responded to.
But I well understand by now that my self-proclaimed betters aren't much for intellectual curiosity/honesty.
the fact that Mann repeatedly lied about being a Nobel Prize recipient
"Steyn's camp"???? Mark Steyn has been impoverished by this 12 year "process is the punishment" travesty; he has had three heart attacks and is now in a wheelchair. And while climate alarmist billionaires like Tom Steyer rush to shower money on Michael Mann (his 12 lawyer team was estimated to cost $250,000 per day, of which he paid not a penny, by his own testimony) Mark Steyn was reduced to representing himself because he could not afford a lawyer. Not much interest from "Libertarians" in defending free speech, is there?