The Volokh Conspiracy
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Judge Glock on "Climate Liberalism"
A review of Climate Liberalism: Perspectives on Liberty, Property & Pollution at Law & Liberty.
The Manhattan Institute's Judge Glock has a favorable review of Climate Liberalism: Perspectives on Liberty Porperty & Pollution over at Law & Liberty. Here is a taste:
A recent collection of essays edited by Jonathan Adler seeks to answer the question of whether "classical-liberal principles" can provide a distinctive perspective on climate change. After reading Climate Liberalism, I think the answer is no, they cannot. Insofar as government is going to respond to climate change, this book shows that the classical liberal or even libertarian response will look a lot like the modern liberal response.
Yet the book is a success at demonstrating, first, how contemporary responses to climate change can be fit into a classically liberal perspective, and, second, how much the free-market response to environmental problems in general has come to inform modern liberals' response, including their response to climate change. If classical liberals are going to wrestle with this issue, this book should make them comfortable that they can do so in their own tradition and without falling into anti-capitalist extremes.
I take the point, but I might shift the emphasis. Yes, I believe some contributions to the book suggest that classical liberals need to think about how government should respond to the threat of climate change more than whether it should respond. I further agree that climate change (like, perhaps, national security and disease) requires the consideration of governmental actions that classical liberals would generally (and rightly) resist. But I also believe -- and hope the book helps suggest -- that a classical liberal perspective is useful in evaluating competing climate policy options, both in terms of what sorts of policies may be effective and what sorts of policies are most compatible with a concern for individual liberty.
As Glock notes, the book focuses on political theory and policy, not science, and there is a reason for that.
The book makes a wise decision to separate the question of the science of climate change from the political question of what to do about it. Since there is no "classical liberal science" just as there is no "socialist science," this book does not try to contribute to that debate. But, as several authors note, even if one thinks the scientific consensus on climate is open to question, and even if one brings an appropriate humility to our ability to imagine the future, that provides little reason to pretend there could not be any costs to climate change, or at least that there could not be some risk to it.
For myself, a classical liberal skepticism of centralized governmental action, combined with an appreciation for how slow and brittle regulatory measures can be, cautions strongly against the sort of regulatory measures favored by progressives, particularly when there are alternative ways to mitigate the threat of climate change. A revenue-neutral carbon tax, for instance, leaves individuals and firms free to respond to energy prices along any margin they wish, providing incentives for emission reduction where such reductions can be achieved efficiently and with only a minimal reduction in the degrees of freedom individuals and firms have to act. Such a policy also avoids the fatal conceit of regulators and planners who think they know when and in what form emission reductions should be achieved. Even an imperfectly calculated tax can fulfill this purpose, and significantly more effectively than the regulatory alternative.
Glock's review concludes:
Insofar as there is a single message in this book, it is the simple but powerful reminder that a classically liberal perspective demands humility—humility about how well policymakers can understand humanity's well-being and also about the ability of government to improve that well-being. But the book also reminds us that humility does not mean indolence. Just as classical liberals or libertarians cannot punt on the issues of national defense or public safety and merely gesture to the free market, despite some heroic attempts at trying, they also cannot pretend any attempt at addressing climate change is beyond the ideological pale. Climate change will remain a political issue, which means it will involve weighing evidence, trying to align public and private incentives, and coming to a political agreement on complex and almost unknowable issues. The best tradition of classical liberalism has done that in other spheres, and it can do it here.
I appreciate the engagement and the kind words for the book and the project it represents.
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Judge "Glock" ?? what a great name, please don't tell me he's one of those Gun Control nuts.
Climate change is definitely happening -
The planet has definitely warmed since the late 1800's perhaps by 1.0c-1.5c.
The greenhouse gas theory is definitely good theory.
That being said, climate science currently is in its infancy and our understanding of climate science is not nearly as well developed as the agw advocates would like the public to believe.
You go into a climate crisis with the climate science you have not the fantasy alternative version you've invented to excuse complascency.
"A revenue-neutral carbon tax, for instance, leaves individuals and firms free to respond to energy prices along any margin they wish". Instead of doing the imperfect things we're actually doing we should agitate for a revenue neutral carbon tax sometime in the future. The Nirvanah fallacy. I see Phoenix is entering its 20th day over 110 F.
And not coincidentally it's 29th day of Summer, almost like there's a relationship.
...and of course the answer is a tax.
I agree. Let them pay the full costs of the damage they cause. A revenue neutral carbon tax isn't even a fraction of it.
Hey Hey Nige-Bot-J, how many Liters of CO2 did you exhale today??
(I didn't exhale any, I'm a "Bot") Drive anywhere? Cook anything? Take a Shit??
Frank
Oh, Franknoramus. Do you suppose Nige eats coal, or did you just sleep through chemistry in high school?
Yeah, it’s summertime in Phoenix
Don't play the moron. You've seen the record-breaking heat levels all over the news. Don't pretend they're not there.
"Record Breaking"?? how far back do the records go?? Do they go back to the Creation 6000 years ago?? I'll make it easy, find me the Temp in Filthy-Delphia July 4, 1776, and we'll compare it with this year.
Ah, but he is not "playing," S_0.
"The news" people are liars who have betrayed every facet of their profession. And you haven’t cited a single one of them.
In a country with 8000 weather stations, it’s extremely likely that several of them will have "record highs" every few days. Records only go back a little over 100 years. Several will also have "record lows".
You are aware that the source of those "record temperatures" admits that they cannot be compared to previous records (being land temps, not air temps), right?
Strictly, these ARE record temperatures. But only because the land temperature records go back no further than a few months.
However once past land temperatures have been modelled and retrofitted, we'll find that there is indeed a terrifyingly fast uptrend in global temperatures.
The past was much colder than we thought, as each new model demonstrates.
I think a revenue-neutral carbon tax, like its cousin a cap-and-trade system, is a fine idea.
But when I see it proposed by libertarians/classical liberals/conservatives/whatever I tend to view it as CYA. They dodge the accusation of being oblivious to the problem, while advancing proposals that will never pass, because their political allies can be counted on to stop it.
Meanwhile, of course, nothing else is good and perfect enough for them.
It's the lowest common denominator 'solution' acceptable to people who know the fossil fuel industry is wrecking the planet but regard it as immoral to directly interfere.
Or it’s a solution being proposed by people with at least a basic understanding of economics who realize that “wrecking the planet” is unscientific garbage.
One might just as easily say that the liberal solutions — the attempted restriction or elimination of the internal combustion engine, regulations aimed toward making people live with less energy, less stuff, and less space, demanding wind and solar to the exclusion of all other electricity generating possibilities — are the exact same policies you all were pushing back in the 70s before climate change was on anybody’s radar. It’s almost as if you have a solution in search of a problem.
Bernard,
I know many "conservative" energy experts who favor a carbon tax as the best way to cover the social costs of energy consumption.
Don,
I don't doubt that there are many such conservative experts.
The difficulty is that there are very few conservative politicians who want to do anything about it, or other externalities, for that matter.
It's odd, because one of the theoretical benefits of competitive markets is that they do a good job of allocating resources efficiently. So I would think that in cases where they are not properly allocated conservatives would understand and favor market-type policies to address the problem.
Indeed, you would think so.
I don't see how anyone can, at this point, dispute that man-made climate change is about to have catastrophic consequences. The middle of the globe is under a heat dome that is smashing all time temperature records, and has been for weeks. The ocean waters off Florida are at record temperature levels and threatening unprecedented hurricanes, as well as species die-offs. Yesterday it was 150 degrees in the middle east, which I don't see how people even survive at that temperature; that's only 72 degrees below the boiling point of water. And there are already warnings about upcoming food and water shortages.
Even the congressional Republicans are now finally admitting that there's a problem; their solution is to plant a trillion trees (!).
On the other side of the ledger, the only way to fix climate change at this point would be to totally crash the economy and tell people they can no longer have cars, airplanes or air conditioning, none of which is going to happen.
So, eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
Well, that leaves you out.
It depends on how much time the better people still have left. Time is not on our side.
Steven Pinker argues that conditions are better than they were a thousand years ago, which is true up to a point, but that doesn't help if it's going to take another thousand years that we just don't have.
We should do the best we can with what we have. There is no fairy godmother coming to save us. We owe it to our descendants and likely are smart enough (and have enough resources) to identify and address the problem.
If you think man-made climate change is about to have catastrophic consequences, and you also believe CO2 is the cause of this how can you emit any excess C02 without being a sociopathic monster?
How can you contribute even one micro-unit of excess C02 knowing that it's contributing to catastrophic consequences for mankind?
I started to draft a serious response but then decided why bother since you're not a serious person. You emit both CO2 and stupid comments.
That sounds like a cop-out.
I get it, it takes a lot of dissonance to believe a.) CO2 is causing climate change b.) that climate change is going to cause catastrophic harm to humanity and c.) you can continue to expel excess CO2 because your personal contributions don't matter only other peoples.
It's the same kind of dissonance that's required to believe human biological sex is on a spectrum.
lol
It takes significantly more dissonance to believe that talking to you will be anything other than time I'm never getting back.
Why do you think that's not the case for every single other conversation here or online?
Do you think you've ever made an actual difference with your comments?
Ah, but other commenters (at least some of them) make intelligent, informed, and non-stupid comments so I at least have the pleasure of good conversation.
You didn't think our gamete conversation was intelligent or informed?
Your part of it? Nope.
I believe that CO2 is causing AGW, that the consequences of AGW will be catastrophic, and that my driving to the dentist, with no real alternative, is going to make no real difference, because it's a problem that can only be solved by large scale collective action. I am taking a utilitarian view, you are taking a simple moralistic view. The word you were looking for is "nuance", not "dissonance".
Right. The problem isn't a single individual exhaling CO2; the problem is the cumulative effect of 7 billion people exhaling CO2, driving cars, and running their air conditioners. The real problem is that the earth is overpopulated, but that, too, is a problem without a current solution. It's not like we can just execute half the world's population (thought BCD might be on board with it depending on who it was getting executed).
"I'm not going to try and save humanity unless the government forces everyone to!"
lol
See, that kind of stupid comment is a good example of why I've decided you're just not worth interacting with on issues of substance.
But that’s a parody of the argument you’re making about your lack of action.
You believe climate change is catastrophic. Yet you also believe you making any sacrifices is futile unless everyone else does too. So in the meantime you do nothing.
That's also a cheap cognitive out for you not pretend my arguments don't have merit and for you to continue to believe the ridiculous stuff you do by pretending.
You exposed your family to danger because you believed covid was fake and vaccines were poison. They were a sacrifice you were prepared to make for your stupid beliefs.
No, it's not even decent parody since you're talking about something other than what I was talking about. And you're either so stupid that you actually think we are talking about the same thing, in which case you're not worth my time, or you know full well that we're talking about two different things, in which case you're simply dishonest.
Are we not talking about the excuses the Climate Alarmists make to excuse themselves for not volunteering to make any personal sacrifices to save humanity?
No, that’s an attempted thread hijack on your part.
And bear in mind most of the C02 in the world is produced by the richest people in the world.
Is that why China is the biggest CO2 polluter?
All those rich Chinese? (lol)
No, it's because it has more people than other countries do.
Your belief is no different from that of the medieval Christian church and your crusade is bound to be orders of magnitude worse in terms of misery and death caused by you.
But at least you have faith, sorry, you believe.
'How can you contribute even one micro-unit of excess C02 knowing that it’s contributing to catastrophic consequences for mankind?'
How were you able to stand idly by while deadly posion vaccines were injected into millions? All that blood on your hands.
I wasn't injecting vaccines into anyone, nor did I let anyone in my family become Vaxx Victims.
You stood idly by knowing the truth. Or you exposed your family to a deadly virus unnecessarily. Lose-lose for you, from a personal morality viewpoint.
How do you know what I did or didn't do?
You did nothing except harm your family.
We're perfectly healthy, non-gmo organic 1776 Americans.
And you were happy to risk their lives to 'prove' it.
Children had virtually zero risk of getting COVID.
Next to absolute zero. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of vaxxed and masked kids are currently paying the price because of what you ignorant zealots did to them.
removed
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
wtf, why are so many Leftists so low information?
But look at the lifelong harm the Covidians placed unnecessarily on children: “Children and adolescents of all ages and in all countries are seriously suffering from the consequences of the pandemic. COVID-19-related measures are having a profound effect on their health and well-being and for some the impact will be lifelong.”
https://www.who.int/europe/activities/considering-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-children
Just like you freaks transing kids with no clue the long term effects. You people are sick and demented.
Queen almathea 20 hours ago
Flag Comment Mute User
“Children had virtually zero risk of getting COVID.”
Cite?"
Queen - I suspect that bravo had a typo - and meant to state that children had virtually zero risk of adverse consequence from catching covid . With the exception of children with pre-existing life threatening and/or terminal illness, children had virtually zero risk of adverse consequences from catching covid.
That fact is undisputed , except by those are ill informed.
“I don’t see how anyone can dispute….catastrophe”
It’s easy to do it - the catastrophe part - if you look at the actual raw data rather than rely on media hype and the bleatings of activists and politicians. We’re almost at the 1.5 degree catastrophe line and the catastrophes aren’t really happening. All of this unprecedented stuff is mostly precedented. Hurricanes are not getting worse. Lots of glaciers and ice bodies that are supposed to be long gone are still with us.
There’s nothing to panic about. And as you say, the earth is much more powerful than most people understand (meaning we don’t influence it negatively or positively as much as people think we do) and we don’t have any viable options now or in the foreseeable future anyway.
So we adapt and go on…….
as you say, the earth is much more powerful than most people understand (meaning we don’t influence it negatively or positively as much as people think we do)
This looks a lot like rationalization to do what you will dressed up as humility.
You’re right. We need to do something to make it worse. Let’s fuck up the whole grid. No carbon emissions during a brownout!!!!
Now going to false choices.
How lame.
Ignoring what the United States is actually doing, following in the footsteps of Germany, and coming up with a non-sequitur like “false choices” is what’s lame.
I didn’t suggest any choices. Just pointed out the end point of your boy Joe’s solution.
Do you ever have anything of substance to say or do you exist to insult other posters with pseudo intellectual but meaningless insults?
'I didn’t suggest any choices. Just pointed out the end point of your boy Joe’s solution.'
Really? Sounded more like the Texas energy grid you were talking about.
It's ironic. For all your declaring the catastrophizing of the global warming folks, your take on Biden admin policies is as much crisis theatre as anything the scientists say.
What are you doing to eliminate your contributions to this man-made catastrophe?
'It’s easy to do it'
The fossil fuel industry, like the tobacco industry before it, never have any problems denying the suffering they cause, certainly.
'We’re almost at the 1.5 degree catastrophe line and the catastrophes aren’t really happening'
We're a few years off, though it's unavoidable at this point, but why listen to the experts, eh?
'Lots of glaciers and ice bodies that are supposed to be long gone are still with us.'
I would urge you to check the current state of glaciers, snow pack and sea-ice at this point.
'the earth is much more powerful than most people understand'
Hippy.
'So we adapt and go on…….'
If we adapt we admit it's real, can't have that!
Nige the idiot thinks the climate today would be better if we had spent the last century using horses for transportation and heating our homes and businesses with dung and wood and king coal. If only we were still living like we did in 1895.
Nuance and complications are faaaaar beyond his comprehension.
'if only we were still living like we did in 1895.'
'nuance and complications are faaaaar beyond his comprehension.'
There's a lot to admire here. Just amazing.
Note that Nige didn’t point out what we should have done that would have been better. He’s somehow imagining that our environment and economy would have been better with 100 years of nasty, undependable energy.
Our envrionment would have been better with less fossil fuels. A few millon people die every year from the air pollution alone.
'Note that Nige didn’t point out what we should have done'
We should have done what have to do - move away from fossil fuels. It would have been better and easier if we'd started back when it was obvious what was going to happen if we didn't, rather than on the verge of it happening.
Hey moron, you’re leaving 100 years without energy in your master plan. What should we have done instead of hydrocarbons?
I don’t see how anyone can, at this point, dispute that man-made climate change is about to have catastrophic consequences.
1. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future, Mr Bohr said, correctly.
2. Predictions by climate alarmists over the past 30 years have been woeful
3. More CO2, though it has a very small effect on the climate, is excellent for agricultural yields. So, so far it's a win.
We are governed by a mixture of wannabee Stalinists, and headless chickens.
Get back to me after hurricane season.
Hurricane season? You mean something that happens regularly?
Oh dear, someone doesn't know what climate change actually is.
Hurricanes are not getting worse. There’s independent raw data out there that shows that clearly. But it’s easier just to accept assertions from our sensationalist media. Looking shit up for yourself is too hard.
Hurricanes are not necessarily increasing in number, they are growing in intensity. See also typhoons.
Nige rule:
1.Nige is always right.
2.If Nige is wrong see rule#1.
Wearing your intellectual limitations on your sleeve like that is admirable.
Oh, I don't know, there are certain limitations best not displayed, which is also one reason Mr. Bumble wears pants.
Nige again demonstrates how easy he is fooled by ideological agenda driven "climate science" . Increases in hurricane intensity caused by global warming is a typical talking point that doesnt hold up to scrutiny
amazing the intellect of the climate scientists being able to ascertain hurricane data that actual hurricane experts somehow miss.
accumulated cyclone energy has remained relatively flat since since the mid 1800's taking into account the normal 20-30 year cycles. (and adjusting for observational deficiencies in the earlier years).
And you think if you put 'agenda driven' before 'science' you've somehow discredited it? Maybe you should tell the insurance companies in Florida that it's that simple.
Nige - you have already proven that you are easily fooled by agenda driven "climate science " You dont need to prove it multiple times,
You've shown that you judge these things through arbitrary sets of moving goalposts related to seperate fields.
Using the information from Wikipedia's “List of United States hurricanes,” I computed the number of storms per year that produced sustained winds of greater than 74 mph in the continental United States from 1970 through 2022. Running a linear regression gave a positive slope, meaning that the number of hurricanes is increasing.
My full comment wouldn't post correctly, so let me add: I chose this collection of storms (rather than, say, hurricanes world wide) because this data is accurate and readily available.
The regression: hurricanes = 0.022335 * year - 43.015.
Sorry for this string of replies; the reason.com filters comment filters have gone crazy.
Sometimes I just post a stand-in dummy comment, then post the real comment as an edit. The edit system seems to have way less overactive filtering logic.
Tell me about the storms from 1870-1922. Not that long ago in the Meteriological scale
I mean, why use 1970 at a starting point? That was a historically low decade.
If you use the 1940's instead, the math comes out differently.
Here are the numbers by decade.
1930's: 20
1940's: 26
1950's: 23
1960's: 15
1970's: 15
1980's: 22
1990's: 31
2000's: 25
2010's: 19
2020's: 8* (decade not complete)
I mean, you would hope for some sort of linearity. But the 2010's had less hurricanes than the 30's, 40's, or 50's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurricanes
So you ignored tropical storms and treated 77 mph 2-day storms and 140 mph 14-day storms the same.
There’s a widely published standard measurement that is designed to compare seasons. Why not just use it?
A hurricane is not climate.
Focus on weather events you can hype shows us you care about hype. Hype is an enemy of scientific inquiry.
You sound like the least fun DM ever.
"Rolling a critical hit is not a combat.
Focusing on critical hits shows you only care about hype. Hype is the enemy of role playing."
Declaring that playing the odds has gone okay so far doesn't mean you're unaffected by the rules of the game.
"…playing the odds has gone okay so far…"
Policy should place bets against "the odds" at Americans' expense?
'A hurricane is not climate.'
Duh.
Ah yes. No one knows, we're fine so far, and also you know and predict it'll actually be good.
With all that arguing in the alternative, this sounds more like advocacy than an actual belief.
wannabee Stalinists
Secret super Stalins everywhere around me.
No one knows, we’re fine so far, and also you know and predict it’ll actually be good.
Let's go to the tape :
"More CO2, though it has a very small effect on the climate, is excellent for agricultural yields. So, so far it’s a win."
Surprise surprise, you're making things up again. Who'da thunk it ?
'More CO2, though it has a very small effect on the climate'
This is, of course, complete tosh.
'So far it's a win' does not obviate the essential predictive nature of 'More CO2, though it has a very small effect on the climate, is excellent for agricultural yields.'
That's not predictive. That's facts. More CO2 is better for agricultural yields.
‘More’ C02 has a comparative component that is temporal – i.e. more C02 now than previously, and in the future than now.
I know your committed to reading my badly, but I shouldn’t have to walk you through elementary parsing like this.
More CO2, higher agricultural yields simply describes a causal relationship, as in more force, more acceleration. It has the same temporal component as F=ma, ie none.
To observe that the relationship between more CO2 and higher yields has been demonstrated in practice so far is the sort of prediction up with which Prof Bohr would have been willing to put. Because it’s a prediction about the past.
You just said something dumb, and are trying to cover it by throwing sand. Better just to walk away.
Hey, Lee stop confounding him with inconvenient truths.
‘2. Predictions by climate alarmists over the past 30 years have been woeful’
Predictions by climate scientists have been largely accurate, actually.
‘is excellent for agricultural yields.’
Only up to a point, and only in places not turning into deserts or flooded regularly or subjected to massive storms. Everyone forgets that too much CO2 also causes brain damage.
"Predictions by climate scientists have been largely accurate, actually. "
Cite one you think is accurate.
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/
Yes increased CO2 improves crop yields only up to a point, about 1000ppm or 2.5x current levels.
C3 plants like wheat and soybeans, are most efficient at that level of CO2.
C4 plants have evolved recently to use a more efficient process in response to the relatively recent (in geologic and evolutionary terms) CO2 starvation that has impacted plant life. "The destabilizing C4 mutations on RuBisCO has been sustained by environmental pressures such as low CO2 concentrations, "requiring a sacrifice of stability for new adaptive functions"(Studer RA, Christin PA, Williams MA, Orengo CA (February 2014). "Stability-activity tradeoffs constrain the adaptive evolution of RubisCO". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.)
Higher CO2 actually restores the natural balance that almost all plant and mammal species evolved under.
"Everyone forgets that too much CO2 also causes brain damage."
That's hilarious.
CO2 levels above 5000ppm can be hazardous, that's 12 times current rates. And primates evolved during the Eocene when CO2 levels were more than double current levels.
Wow, all those delaying tactics of denying it until its undeniable really paid off, huh? Now that it's undeniabe we STILL can't do anything, of course! Profit!
When you start by being wrong on pretty much all of your facts, it's no great surprise that you reach wrong conclusions.
“I don’t see how anyone can, at this point, dispute that man-made climate change is about to have catastrophic consequences.”
Only a true zealot professes to be certain about the future.
Also doomsday predictions have been wrong the last million times in a row.
And that's bullshit Krychek, that you fell for.
Here is a peer reviewed study, from the journal of the American Meteorological Society using government data, that shows:
"While neither U.S. landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity shows a significant trend since 1900, growth in coastal population and wealth have led to increasing hurricane-related damage along the U.S. coastline."
Certainly hurricane damage has increased exponentially with the exponential increase in beachfront houses, but that's hardly the hurricanes fault.
Show me a study that shows increasing long term trend for hurricanes, using comparable data (since the satellite era they detect more hurricanes that don't make landfall, so its important to compare apples to apples.)
Fun fact: my Grandmother lived through the 1905 Galvaston Hurricane that is still the worst disaster in US History, she was 10. Her family abandoned their farm and moved further inland to Louisiana.
Studies have shown hurricane intensity to be increasing in the last twenty years. Sure, there's reason to be cautious due to the observational issues you quote, but that cuts both ways, and warmer seas = stronger hurricanes is hardly an outlandish assessment.
Nige - repetitively fooled - those studies are using very short term trends, along with not adjusting for observational deficiencies - you wouldnt be so easily fooled if you had better grasp - of all the science instead of the cherry picked science you get from your ideological bubble
You said no change - there has been a change. Yes obsevational data has improved, but that cuts both ways. The trends are increasing and the conditions are set for them to continue to do so.
Twenty years is noise. When you have a long term trend you use that.
It's cherry picking to ignore the trend that was declining from 1900 until the 2000, a 100, year period, and then say Ah Ha, the last 20 years show increasing hurricanes. And all of that "increasing trend" was due to a single year, 2004 which was caused by a rare El Nino condition: "Modoki El Niño – a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific".
Kazinski
Concur - twenty years is both noise and part of the normal short term cycles.
Nige is repeating discredited talking points and demonstrates a lack of the necessary broader knowledge and thus is easily fooled by the activist talking points.
The Galveston Hurricane was September 8 1900, but otherwise you are correct. Deadliest natural disaster in American history.
And these lazy mugs could look up things like historic ACE which clearly shows no uptrend in annual intensity. But that doesn’t fit the narrative at all, so it’s easier to just holler about impending catastrophe.
The trends shows increased intensity over the last twenty years.
No it doesn’t. Saying it’s true doesn’t make it do.
The trend shows flat intensity on average hasn’t changed in 75 years.
You obviously haven’t even bothered to look.
Nige 37 mins ago (edited)
Flag Comment Mute User
"The trends shows increased intensity over the last twenty years."
Nige - you are again demonstrating how little you actually know and understand on the subject matter - at the same time your are relying on typical activist talking points. As several others have pointed out (multiple times) is global ACE and ACE in the pacific and atlantic basins have remained fairly constant for the last 150+ years adjusting for the typical cyclical nature of hurricane trends.
Not only that but there’s a bias in the data before 1965 give or take. No weather satellites. So the early time in that date range needs to be adjusted upward by an unknown amount because mph-hours were missed. Which further flattens the curve or even shifts it a smidge to where current seasons are even a little less active.
And still unadjusted the all time most active Atlantic season remains 1933.
Either way you can look at the curves back 100 years. There is no uptrend. The “hurricanes are getting worse” thing flies in the face of actual information. But nobody in the media and political elite care - stable hurricane activity exposes their narrative as bullshit.
True - hurricanes getting more intense is a discredited talking point that the activists cant understand why it has been discredited.
One of the best examples is a study of projected future hurricanes - where the study predicted that the hurricane intensity would increase as SST got warmer. The punch line was a statement in one of the first 4-5 paragraphs where it stated that there has been no detectible increase in hurricane frequency or intensity after adjusting for observational deficiencies during the last 150+ years and which during that period of rising SST, but because of the rising SST there will definitely be an increase in hurricane intensity in the future. Basically admitting that the "climate science " was predicting something that real/actual historical data was showing hasnt happened and wasnt going to happen
Yeah, that makes more sense, my grandmother was 5 when the hurricane hit, not 10.
Really good book if you want to read about it.
https://eriklarsonbooks.com/book/isaacs-storm/
Oh yeah and here is an EPA map showing no trend in days that hotter than the 95%. There are a more blue triangles (fewer hot days) than orange triangles(more hot days), and the vast majority of weather stations operating since at least 1948 show no significant change either way.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures#%20
And Dr. Ryan Maue, a weather reseacher points out our current heatwave is well below the hottest weather recorded in the US in 1936, where "27.3% area [of the US] was 100°F+ or two times today's value of 13.4%"
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1680620569996214273?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1680620569996214273%7Ctwgr%5Eabe197c53570d7d9606cb1968e11e401e6585c49%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2023%2F07%2F17%2Fryan-maue-puts-yesterdays-us-extreme-heat-in-context%2F
Hmm.
'Nationwide, unusually hot summer days (highs) have become more common over the last few decades (see Figure 1). The occurrence of unusually hot summer nights (lows) has increased at an even faster rate. This trend indicates less “cooling off” at night.'
'if the climate were completely stable, one might expect to see highs and lows each accounting for about 50 percent of the records set. Since the 1970s, however, record-setting daily high temperatures have become more common than record lows across the United States (see Figure 5). The decade from 2000 to 2009 had twice as many record highs as record lows.'
. Since the 1970s, however,
50 years? That's what you insist is "science" How many glacial ages are there?
Can you give us an idea of the timescale you have in mind? = I don’t see how anyone can, at this point, dispute that man-made climate change is about to have catastrophic consequences.
Is this a next week thing, or next millennium thing?
C_XY,
The time horizon depends on where you live. If you lived in Bangladesh, it would be a lot closer than if you lived in Nepal
“Record Breaking”?? how far back do the records go?? Do they go back to the Creation 6000 years ago?? I’ll make it easy, find me the Temp in Filthy-Delphia July 4, 1776, and we’ll compare it with this year.
K_2,
You got the number correct, it would take 1 trillion trees 100 years to bring the CO2 concentration to pre-industrial evels
A trillion trees isn't actually that unreasonable.
In 1920, there were approximately 750 Billion trees, worldwide.
Currently there are 3 trillion or so trees. That's an increase of 2.25 trillion trees in 100 years. Increasing the tree population an additional 33% seems an entirely reasonable proposition, if ambitious.
https://www.gotreequotes.com/are-there-more-trees-now-than-100-years-ago/
Weeks? That scales to global wide warming, sure does.
Ah, climate fanatics who claim the world is going to end because of climate change.... Reminds me of those nuts who think the world is going to end because God says the end times are coming.
Honestly, the nuts who think God is going to end the world are more believable. At least they have some vague undefinable chance on their side. Those who understand the science, understand that humanity in no way is going to "end" if temperatures increase a few degrees.
Could things get harder? Sure. Will humanity end? No. Those who actually understand the science know this.
Why would anyone want the corrupt, inept, incompetent people in government trying to solve any large problem?
All they do is create misery and oppression while making themselves richer and less accountable.
I further agree that climate change (like, perhaps, national security and disease) requires the consideration of governmental actions that classical liberals would generally (and rightly) resist.
Guns? Drag queenery? Transgender sorority drame? Lesbian parents? Superstition-driven parents culling libraries? Groomers?
Hey speaking of national security, did you see how the Democrat military exempts trannies from deployment and physical standards?
That sounds smart.
Oh look, a racist Trump supporter pretending it cares about national security, how quaint. Next thing it’ll be extolling family values.
climate change (like, perhaps, national security and disease) requires the consideration of governmental actions that classical liberals would generally (and rightly) resist.
Which is why it's a thing.
Yeah, the reality of a crisis is entirely dependant on how politically opposed to the solutions you are.
Fuck off with the 'climate change is a government hoax so they can Stalin it up' bullshit.
You're not crazy enough to believe this, quit indulging in this shit.
Weee woo weee wooo weee wooo Captain Sarcastr0 hear to tell people what's acceptable to believe!
Just in time Captain Sarcastr0, someone else might get infected by the Unapproved Belief!
“Record Breaking”?? how far back do the records go?? Do they go back to the Creation 6000 years ago?? I’ll make it easy, find me the Temp in Filthy-Delphia July 4, 1776, and we’ll compare it with this year.
'cautions strongly against the sort of regulatory measures favored by progressives,'
What a fucking pity that there are literally no other solutions forthcoming from any other part of the political spectrum, (including the far left who always start with '1. Overthrow capitalism.')
'Such a policy also avoids the fatal conceit of regulators and planners who think they know when and in what form emission reductions should be achieved.'
Apparently an entirely notional and extremely limited financial mechanism *knows* stuff experts don't? It's a tax, not a bloody AI.
Because only Democrats realize that climate change is real, only Democratic solutions have a chance of being passed into law. Which is a shame because ideas like this (which were embraced by McCain and other Republicans not too long ago) will never get a hearing.
“Because only Democrats believe climate change is real”…
Unless we’ve entered a time warp and it’s 2002, that statement is complete bullshit.
'I believe it's real but I just don't care' is functionally no different from not believing it's real.
A more correct statement would be:
Only Democrats believe that policy should always ignore real impacts in favor of focusing on storytelling and hype.
Great discussion of real impacts above. Folks on both sides chimed in. But it had some long posts that might have taken some time to read and understand;
not good angryposting fodder.
They are all talking about weather. Weather is not climate.
Start here, not that you actually care: https://reason.com/volokh/2023/07/19/judge-glock-on-climate-liberalism/?comments=true#comment-10161046
'in favor of focusing on storytelling and hype.'
Tell us again about the Hunter Biden laptop.
How did Senescent Joe get to Litauen last week?? On a fucking Flying Carpet?? Nope, a big Armor Plated 747 burning Hydrocarbons.
Welcome to the VC. That's Ventriloquist Contest, where Nige, SarcastrO, the Queen and various others vie to see who can talk of of their ass most convincingly.
Welcome to VC where disagreement with the right-wing consensus of asininity causes resentment and confusion.
Keep trying. You’ll get better with practice.
Certainly you are a cautionary example to us all.
Nige Bot considers futileness of his existence.
A revenue-neutral carbon tax, for instance, leaves individuals and firms free to respond to energy prices along any margin they wish, providing incentives for emission reduction where such reductions can be achieved efficiently and with only a minimal reduction in the degrees of freedom individuals and firms have to act. Such a policy also avoids the fatal conceit of regulators and planners who think they know when and in what form emission reductions should be achieved.
But of course regulators and planners and legislators do need to be involved in deciding how much emissions need to be reduced. How else will they decide what the tax should be?
And they will unavoidably, IMO, be involved in what emissions should be reduced. After all, the tax will have some structure, and that will influence things.
bernard,
Among the energy economist community the generally quoted tax is between $100 to $150 per ton carbon (not CO2)
Given a mostly theoretical problem, classical liberalism is a poor tool because it focuses on liberty. Encroachments on liberty are real. Climate impacts are extrapolations of extrapolations and only appear on charts and spreadsheets.
Foresight and planning have become something conservatives refuse to do.
So, question for the people who think catastrophe is imminent: Why not geoengineering? ie, something like stratospheric aerosol injection.
Or separately, why not large-scale carbon capture?
Why does the solution have to be killing the backbone of the economy instead of a solution that doesn’t make widespread energy generation possible. Because reducing coal/oil/gas emissions globally is a non-starter. Even if Western Europe in the US could both afford to do it (seems unlikely, given CA’s inability to keep the lights on, and Germany’s energy boondoggle) and had the political willpower to do it, China and India certainly aren’t going to be on-board, and neither will much of the rest of the world.
I’d rather India lift its 1.3 billion people out of poverty *and* reduce warming.
(Meanwhile, stop blocking nuclear projects. The only sustained de-carbonization of an energy sector was France’s nuclear buildout in the mid-20th century).
Why not nuclear?
"Why does the solution have to be killing the backbone of the economy…"
Policy has to make Americans' lives worse to get Democrats' support. Anything that doesn’t punish energy sins is immediately rejected.
Have you told Republicans? They still want miners catching black-lung to provide all the energy.
'Why not geoengineering?'
I'm not sure handing over trillions to Elon Musk so he can fuck up some large scale project and make everything worse is really all that attractive a prospect.
You know what would capture carbon? Restored wetlands, grass plains and forests.
Who said Elon Musk should do it?
And I'm hardly opposed to restoring wetlands, grass plains, and forests. In fact, we're doing that right now. But unless you're arguing that would be *sufficient*, well, we need to be talking about more than that.
There’s already a “Carbon Capture” device, they’re called "Trees" (and or “Plants”) Don’t know about the rest of the US but they’re all over the place in Jaw Jaw (and no, not to hang Afro-Amuricans from) Frank
The beauty of carbon credits for CO2 reduction is that it is a market-driven approach that encourages efficiency - even if it does resemble medieval indulgences.
(As an aside on climate itself, Bayesian reasoning alone should tell you that climate change is very likely happening. )
Climate Change?? “Record Breaking”?? how far back do the records go?? Do they go back to the Creation 6000 years ago?? I’ll make it easy, find me the Temp in Filthy-Delphia July 4, 1776, and we’ll compare it with this year.
Frank
and explain Bayesian reasoning in your own words without Googling/Wikipedia. Last time I heard the term was Med School Genetics and I didn't understand it then.
Hey, it's Algores Interwebs, if you Google/Wikipedia it I'm not gonna track you down and kill you (Zuckerbergs goons will)
Frank
Here's a canonical example of Bayesian reasoning. A disease affects one person in a million. There's a test for it that is 99% accurate if you haven't, and 100% accurate if you have it. You take the test and you test positive. What is the chance you have the test? IIRC in the 80s there were a few cases of young men committing suicide after being given a positive HIV diagnosis because their doctors didn't apply Bayesian reasoning to the test result.
A standard response is to note the relative accuracy of the tests and come up with some number near 100%. Bayesian reasoning, on the other hand, notes that while the chance of a false positive is low - 1 in 100 - the chance you had the disease was 1 in 1 million, so it's far more likely that your test was due to a false positive than your actually having the disease.
One example of Bayesian reasoning comes in opposition to the Gambler's Fallacy. If you toss a coin 20 times and it comes down heads each time what's the chance that the next time it's tails? The Gambler's Fallacy would say. 50%. A Bayesian would say that although the probability of the coin not being a fair coin initially was very low - unless it's specified that it's a fair coin with 100% certainty - a long succession of heads increases the probability that the coin is indeed not fair, and so the probability of heads will be higher than 50%
Would've been better if you let AI write this for you.
"99% accurate if you haven't" ... "What is the chance you have the test?"
Maybe Queenie can come fix that for you, with its "inductive logic".
More useful would be an explanation of why you think "Bayesian reasoning alone should tell you that climate change is very likely happening."
Obviously you'll need to tighten up your climate change proposition a bit, so that you can produce a Bayesian argument for something a bit deeper than propositions that everyone would agree with - like climate change is always happening, the climate has been warming a bit over the past couple of hundred years.
So let's see your workings for how Bayesian reasoning gets us to "very likely" on the proposition that the climate is warming fast and catastrophically, and that humans could bring it to a screeching halt by doing things differently. Extra marks if you can show us how Bayesian reasoning shows us how humans outside China can do the screeching halt thing without Chinese co-operation.
The problem of carbon credits is a very large part are fictional, or transitory. For instance a they counted a large part of California's forests as carbon credits and then the burned down.
They should only allow carbon credits for forests that are harvested for timber in California, because the carbon is sequestered in lumber used for houses and new timber will grow and pull out more carbon. A mature forest is recycling the carbon via decay at the same rate its sequestering it.
Generally speaking, I'm against "revenue neutral carbon taxes" because they are counterproductive, and end up increasing carbon emissions.
Basically, what they do is outsource carbon-intensive industries (i.e, steel production, cement production) to areas which don't have carbon taxes.
What ends up happening is rather than have local industry produce cement, the raw materials are shipped to a foreign country (+ carbon emissions), the coal is shipped to a foreign country (+ carbon emissions), the coal is burnt for power in the foreign country (+ carbon emissions), the cement is produced in the foreign country (+ carbon emissions), and then the cement is shipped back to the original country (+ carbon emissions). But importantly, all those carbon emissions aren't actually produced in the country. So they "don't count" in terms of carbon emissions. Despite climate change being a global issue.
So, instead of the local country producing cement which is needed, even at 100% renewable power, it ends up being cheaper, because of the "carbon tax" to produce all the cement in a foreign country, and produce lots more CO2.
If you wanted to have real effects, you would begin heavily tariffing "carbon-intensive" industries which occur offshore.
I assume any sensible "revenue neutral carbon tax" proposal would tax imports commensurately. It's not like you're the first person to think of this loophole.
Sure, you could "assume" that. And when the Chinese company says "oh, we use 100% renewable power for all exported products. Only items used for domestic production use 100% Coal power"...
How does one charge that?
Seriously?
Queen - Care to point out which statement I made is incorrect -
Or do you even know enough about the subject matter to have any grasp of what is correct or incorrect?
I didnt think you would
Tom’s right, and as an example, a big one because its the fundamental question of AGW, the estimate of how much warming to expect from doubling CO2: “In 1979, the Charney Report from the US National Academy of Sciences suggested that ECS was likely somewhere between 1.5C and 4.5C per doubling of CO2.”
OK, in 1979 it was reasonable to have an upper limit of warming that had a range of 3x the warming of the lower limit. So what progress have they made in 40 years, with another 40 years of climate data to help them?
In the IPCC’s current AR6 technical summary, page 46, they tout the scientific progress they’ve made in over 40 years of subsequent research: “In AR6, refinements in paleo data for paleoclimate reference periods indicate that ECS is very likely greater than 1.5°C and likely less than 4.5°C, which is largely consistent with other lines of evidence and helps narrow the uncertainty range of the overall assessment of ECS. Some of the CMIP6 climate models that have either high (>5°C) or low (<2°C) ECS also simulate past global surface temperature changes outside the range of proxy-based reconstructions for the coldest and warmest reference periods.”
But note some of the official CMIP6 models are outside that range, but they discount them because their hindcasting is outside the range of their wild ass guess proxy reconstructions. (note: some proxy reconstructions are more reliable than others, O16/O18 isotope ratios seem scientifically reliable, tree rings are mostly worthless)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity/
The SarcastrO rule has its Queen equivalent: 1. The Queen is always right. 2. If the Queen is wrong see rule #1.
The planet has definitely warmed since the late 1800’s perhaps by 1.0c-1.5c. is a tendentious timeline. As was pointed out in the Monday open thread: https://reason.com/volokh/2023/07/17/monday-open-thread-9/?comments=true#comment-10158119
The greenhouse gas theory is definitely good theory.
So is gravity. This is a meaningless dig to anyone familiar with scientific terminology. And it is a dig, even if you pretend it is some kind of concession.
climate science currently is in its infancy and our understanding of climate science is not nearly as well developed as the agw advocates would like the public to believe
Ipse dixit. Not even wrong. Just going on vibes.
'Climate science is in its infancy' is a nonsensical non-statement. All science is in its infancy when seen from a completely imagined viewpoint on a long enough time-scale.
You just can't understand people sticking to opinions you don't like, eh?
the AGW advocates would have more credibility with the science if they did not get so much blatantly wrong - such as their delusions on renewables. Take for example jacobsons claim on 100% renewables and only needing battery back up for 4 hours - only need 4 hours of battery back up because if you need more backup, all that has to be done is run the 4 hours of battery back up in series to create longer periods of battery back up.
Or jacobsons claim that hydro provides 1-3 months effective back up via all the water behind the dam, failing to note that the water is needed for vastly more important other purposes which if used for electric generation when wind and solar fail, it would create ecological disaster.
One point being - if the climate scientists get so much of the simple stuff wrong - then how can they possibly have the intellectual capacity to understand the complexities of climate science.
Queen -
A) you are demonstrating my point -
B ) you are demonstrating Bumble's point -"The SarcastrO rule has its Queen equivalent: 1. The Queen is always right. 2. If the Queen is wrong see rule #1."
Why the fuck would I give two shits about a bunch of donkey fucking towelheads?
'Take for example jacobsons claim'
Some oddly arbitrary non-scientific shiftable goal-posts about climate science being established here which, of course, have nothing to do with climate science.
This is such a dumb argument. It's like the people who say
My doctor misdiagnosed my weird rash 20 years ago, so I don’t go to doctors anymore. What good is modern medicine if they can’t even get the little things right?
Collectively LOL
(The insistence that we replace fossil fuel sourced energy with things that don't yet exist, or that don't perform equivalently)
Either we replace fossil fuels with alternative sources of energy or we stop using them and replace them with nothing or the world keeps getting hotter and hotter. LOL.
It doesn’t matter whether the climate scientists are 100% correct. As people have been trying to tell you, they have no expertise about alternatives to CO2 producing fuel sources.
Such alternatives don’t currently exist to replace CO2 emitting energy sources, or do not perform equivalently that won’t impact quality of life. Which is what they are demanding of the population (but of course the elites will be mostly unaffected): decreased standard of living.
And no, we can’t just throw money at the problem to develop better alternatives. There is no guarantee of success, that’s not how science and engineering work. How long did it take Edison (and others) to perfect the incandescent light bulb? It wasn’t clear before he finally had a commercially viable product if the problem would ever be solved.
We’re already throwing money at the problem, with only incremental improvement (not negligible progress, but not enough for widespread adoption at any price). Renewables are turning into nuclear fusion: 10 years away! The carbon tax doesn't help, because there are insufficient viable alternatives to incentive. Yet.
(The real problem is actually with energy storage, not generation, but that’s an even more complicated conversation.)
'they have no expertise about alternatives to CO2 producing fuel sources.'
I don't think it's the climate scientists working on the alternative energy sources. With all the solar and wind and tidal stuff springing up worldwide they'd be kept too busy to do any climate science.
'And no, we can’t just throw money at the problem to develop better alternatives. '
How convenient. We really need these alternative resources, research and development on them has been delayed, captured and sabotaged for decades, let's just stop.
This is like all the weirdos who confidentally maintained that first there was no pandemic and then that all the pandemic responses were wrong and bad and then afterwards declared all the pandemic responses to have been done wrong.
I really like most of your comment here. Well explicated opinions, most of which I agree with.
My disagreements:
– I don’t think it’s quite right to equate lower consumption with decrease standard of living. 1) Not every luxury is a standard of living, and 2) infrastructure investment is really helpful here. I just heard something about how much water it takes to grow the cotton in a pair of jeans in Turkmenistan (like 7k of goundwater) versus Brazil (less than 1k of rainwater). It’s not energy, but it shows how much room there is on the margins, if we’re okay with a bit of intentional transitions.
-Nuclear is a pretty great and well established way to compete with CO2 producing fuel sources. It’s got it’s issue, and it’s no silver bullet, but it does mean we’re not in as tight a bind as you say.
-I agree on incremental improvements on renewables and energy storage, but basic research is nonlinear, so optimism has a place! I also think low hanging fruit exists in carbon sequestration and geoengineering.
But your broad discussion of the costs is well said. Though the other side of the ledger is not something to neglect just because the costs are hard. I think this is a serious problem, on both sides. I am optimistic, not because I think human-created C02-based warming is a hoax, but because in the real world direct zero sum tradeoffs are rarer than most think, and there remains room for many approaches.
I have no time for anyone who insists on ignoring the other side on this. Not a useful way to be.
Isn't energy delivery a problem as well? Specifically, future increased use of electricity will require a much better and robust delivery system than we have presently; we don't have the capacity to deliver what will be needed.
On the climate science: The problem I have more generally is using the incomplete (the science is in it's infancy) understanding of the physical sciences and phenomena (and their interplay) combined with wildly inaccurate modelling to make dramatic changes to our way of life. And adding to the mix - legal decisions that affect the entire country. I have more of an issue with that side of the equation.
My Question: Why does anyone think the climate scientists will do any better on 'climate change' (and policy) than our physicians did with Covid-19?
Climate scientists are doing their job by raising the alarm and improving their models and understanding of the risk. Finding alternatives has to be left to other experts. But the good news is we have pre-existing alternatives that can get us started. Some of them will require adjustments that you seem to recognize as "quality of life" issues but climate change itself is creating dramatic changes in quality of life all by itself. (fires, floods, more frequent and stronger storms along with the associated damage and insurance issues. Increases in pest ranges for food crops. Increases in range of diseases like malaria. etc.)
"...Which is what they are demanding of the population..." The climate scientists are doing science and letting us know what the costs will likely be if we do nothing. Climate activists, most of whom are not climate scientists, are making political demands and raising awareness. That's part of our political (and economic) process. A scientist can do the science that confirms smoking is likely to cause cancer and tell a patient that they ought to quit or they'll risk a litany of painful diseases but that's not a demand; it's a recommendation. The patient can choose to quit or not.
"And no, we can’t just throw money at the problem to develop better alternatives."
Well, yes; yes we can. If we can develop nuclear power and weapons that way, rockets that way, and SARS vaccines that way, we can certainly develop solutions to reduce CO2 and methane transmissions. We already do it through grants and tax incentives. You're right that we cannot do it overnight, but that isn't a good argument for not doing it and it certainly isn't an argument that it's not possible.
I agree that storage is the thornier technical puzzle and our current solutions are only just barely reasonable. But I disagree that that is the "real problem" here. The real problem is convincing the public to take this seriously enough that we make the structural changes to maximize the value of the solutions we have today. Things like reduce our beef intake, build denser communities with public transit to reduce the need to commute long distances, improve our grid infrastructure to support future electrical demand, track down and stop industrial methane leaks, and eliminate subsidies (economic incentives) for fossil fuels.
Even if the perfect technological solutions are years away, we can still focus on those things that are achievable now in order to extend the time we have for the perfect solutions to appear. (And they'll appear because we fund (aka: throw money at) basic research and create economic incentives to speed up market adoption.)
You first.
I wonder would a sane consevative response to climate change focus on efficencies?
It’s hard to see nuclear power as anything other than an expensive white elephant with the most poisonous waste-product on the planet, and even harder to see much enthusiasm for it in a world where natural disasters are set to become more sudden, common and unpredictable.
Wow, take that climate change!
I have an evangelical friend (we play D&D) who talks about conservative including a responsibility to conserve the Earth. Not that they'll vote Dem for that purpose.
Nuclear waste from a well designed power plant is pretty small and manageable. It's toxic, but in a way that can be controlled from becoming a thing has risks for the environment. It's not scalable, though. So it's not a silver bullet for the US at all. But neither should it be discarded. Especially with all the materials science advances since the last ones were built.
I think of all the alternative energy sources, nuclear plants are going to be the hardest sell for anyone living nearby.
What makes you think nuclear isn't scalable?
BTW I have to mention this...I was at a nephew's wedding in England this past weekend, and he, his bride and a number of their friends are regular D&D players. And I took great delight in telling them that I was a founding member of Oxford's D&D society...in 1976!
He could have been talking about East Palestine there, you know. It is BVD.
Oh yeah, that environmental disaster that the Democrat Federal Government ignored because it happened in a red district.
I had forgotten all about that.
'with wildly inaccurate modelling'
The models have been pretty accurate.
'Why does anyone think the climate scientists will do any better on ‘climate change’ (and policy) than our physicians did with Covid-19?'
Ah. Rejection of expertise. Great.
Power delivery is an issue but not necessarily because of local of demand but because the best locations for renewables are often not convenient to demand. Old substations in rural areas were likely not sized for mega or gigawatt generation behind them and they represent a chokepoint in throughput. If the state were to come in and build a billion dollar nuke behind it, the plans would absorb the cost of the new substation with ease but for a megawatt solar farm, the price is out of scale.
For individual consumers in rural or suburban locations where people own their rooftops, increased power consumption can be paired with generation and storage for near zero grid power consumption. Every home that gets solar with storage removes some fraction of a hypothetical consumer from the grid and frees up more supply for other users.
Our physicians did great with COVID-19, on the whole. It was our populous and our political leadership that failed us. Compare COVID-19 to the history of polio or earlier pandemics; we had a working vaccine in record time.
Nah, partnered with Judge Gkey.
Do you not see how absurd Carbon Indulgences are?
They are facially absurd.
Right, that's what most Global Warmists do so they don't have be inconvenienced by living their beliefs.
Jesus, you believe anything they tell you, you really do.
They vote for politicians who believe climate change exists. That's the bare minimum, to be honest.
Dude, it was on TV everyone saw it with our own eyes.
Maybe that wasn't on Chinese State TV and thats' why you didn't know it was all over the news here in America.
What did they see? The governor refusing to call in the feds? Because the governer refused to call in the feds. Then again, performatively risking other people’s lives because you believe stupid shit is something you support.
just pointing out that if the climate scientists can't comprehend the easy stuff like renewables (getting fooled by jacobson) then how can they have the intellectual capacity to understand climate science.
Nige - since you noted my comment about jacobson and his 100% renewable studies,
Do you have any concept of the level of dishonesty in his analysis. Or do you have any capability of recognizing the level of dishonesty in his claims
No, you're trying to arbitraily dismiss climate scientists by making claims about a different field. it's rubbish.
The waste storage has some fundamental limits on it.
Plus the way we're placed spatially and the risk restrictions on where to put a nuclear plant...we're never going to become a purely nuclear-generation country.
"The waste storage has some fundamental limits on it.
Plus the way we’re placed spatially and the risk restrictions on where to put a nuclear plant"
Show your work
That's politics. I think once those who didn't grow up during the nuclear scare, things may shift some.
I'm not sure the spectacle of nuclear power plants in a war zone is doing it many favours.
"...the nuclear scare..."
There isn't just one nuclear scare, though. Fukushima was in 2011. If the Russian war damages the Zaporishshia plant, that'll move the "nuclear scare" bookmark forward into the future and could underscore the war risk of having these things dotted near high population centers. These plants are also more expensive than solar and wind with battery storage, have more stringent siting requirements due to cooling methods, and take a lot longer to build. I'm not anti-nuclear (I worked for the Yucca Mountain project in my youth), but I see the use-case for these things narrowing to very specific circumstances where solar and wind are not feasible.
shawn_dude - fair point, but I meant when nuclear bombs were gonna wipe out humanity any day now. That was a thing for over 2 decades. And that seems to be what's driving the risk evaluations for now; who can blame people who lived through that? I only kinda did - I remember it mostly via MAD Magazine jokes I read as a kid too young to understand the humor, but liking the tone.
These plants are also more expensive than solar and wind with battery storage That very depends on where you are with wind, and I don't think that's true for solar, at least not yet.
have more stringent siting requirements due to cooling methods That's driven by insurance, which is driven by way out of whack risk assessments based more on political viability than actual risk.
take a lot longer to build This one, I give you. But that's not a fundamental issue, it's a transition issue.
I hope we get renewables up to better than nuclear in most cases; we aren't there yet. But nuclear has it's own costs above and beyond the political ones, so don't think I'm saying *bam* all coal to nuclear, we're good, you can thank me later.
Nuclear is just one element in a whole set of approaches we should be looking to.
nuclear plants are going to be the hardest sell for anyone living nearby.
Because the risk hovers around zero?
@Sarcastr0 -- thanks for the Mad Magazine reference! I read that as a kid.
I participated in duck and cover exercises in grade school in the 70s. I also lived near a nuclear missile launch site and experienced Titan missiles launching suddenly from only a few miles away.
Siting requirements are also driven by the type of cooling required, which is generally near a large body of water for the sort of reactors that are most common in the US. The other thing that tends to gravitate to large bodies of water? Population centers.
I would look askance at anyone who declared that any single energy source was *the* solution. Single-solution approaches are always suspect. Intermittent energy sources will never be the best option in all cases and reversing global warming doesn't require that we give up 100% of all fossil fuel use or double down on nuclear fission.
I see "classic liberal" as mostly a dodge, similar to "libertarian" (or "often libertarian" or "libertarianish"), deployed by conservatives who don't want to be known as conservatives.
I also do not see guns as greatly distinct from national security or disease in this context.
That was pretty good. Your lips hardly moved. No wonder you're the Queen.
You and Greta...perfect together.
I play Tuesdays and Fridays. I run every other Friday!
The movie is on my list, but I'm not really brand loyal.
I'll say again: the climate experts have no expertise about fuel alternatives. Them insisting we need to cut CO2 emission tomorrow does not mean those other guys (working on it, yes I'm sure that's also happening) have anything to offer up. That's what's bogus about declaring it an "emergency". If we don't have the technology (at any price), they are demanding we accept a decreased standard of living. Can't replace something with nothing.
No, I'm not suggesting we not fund alternate/basic research to solve the replacement problem. All I said was spending every last dollar doing so does not guarantee a solution within a timeframe that lines up with the climate scientists demands. Talk about weirdos, you're doing a great job there claiming there's a conspiracy to suppress R&D on clean alternatives. Yes, Big Oil has been doing that for years, buying up promising new tech from inventors, only to bury it to continue raking in the petrodollars. Also, the moon landings were faked!
If someone does perfect commercially viable nuclear fusion or the incredible battery, they will be rich beyond their wildest dreams. Incentives certainly exist now.
Randal 54 mins ago (edited)
Flag Comment Mute User
"This is such a dumb argument. It’s like the people who say
My doctor misdiagnosed my weird rash 20 years ago, so I don’t go to doctors anymore. What good is modern medicine if they can’t even get the little things right?"
Randal - its a dumb comment to you because you dont grasp the significance . Climate science is complex, yet the climate scientists and the climate science advocates get so much of the non controversial simple science wrong ( or what should be non controversial issues ). simpler items such as paleo reconstructions, hurricane trends , tornado trends, renewables, etc. Which begs the question - if the climate scientists get so much of the easy science wrong - the how can they possibly have the intellectual capacity to understand the complexities of climate science?
Now do Hurricane Katrina
Where are you seeing me say that?
You can still contribute to the downfall of humanity, but get to feel good because that harm is "offset".
How about you don't contribute to the downfall of humanity AND contribute to those offsets anyways so you embiggen your saving of humanity.
It's absurd. You people are absurd.
lol
Randal - let me answer that rhetorical question - climate science was been taken over by climate activists - Judith Curry is one of the few that have resisted the take over by activists which explains why she has been branded by the activists as a science denier.
Well that part is correct, I didn't say there was no warming, I was refuting Krychek: "middle of the globe is under a heat dome that is smashing all time temperature records,"
If fact most of the trend in global warming is higher daily minimum temperatures, rather than higher daily max temps.
When they started compiling temperature records in the 1800's the only recorded the days maximum and minimum temp at most weather stations. Then when they began turning that into a global temperature anomaly they average the TMin and TMax temperature and use that as the data point for each weather station and aggregate that regionally and globally.
So... you're happy that the Democratic Federal Government ignored it?
"Our physicians did great with COVID-19"
As a Nige-like person commented here previously,
7 million and counting.
Look around the world, shawn.
Solar and wind are far from sustainable. windmills barely last 20 years, and solar panels are no better. But the fact is they supplement fossil fuels, but do not REPLACE.
they're huge??????
Don't forget the adrenochrome!
or the Jewish space lasers!
or the children . . . those poor, poor children!
or the bamboo ballots!
or the satanic influences!
or the Kenyan Muslim communist birth certificate!
or the plandemic!
or the death panels!
or the FEMA concentration camps!
or Operation Jade Helm!
or the soundstaged moon landing!
or Pizzagate!
or the controlled demolition of the World Trade Center!
or the Paul Pelosi gay bar crawl coverup!
And that is why the predictions are for the increase in the "global temperature anomaly"
I think you forgot Hunter Biden. But then, the list is just so long...
Judith Curry is a climate scientist, you know.
It seems like she's positioned herself as a "contrarian" mostly by doing the same thing you're doing: tilting at strawmen. For example (from her recent book),
Any change that is observed over the past century is now implicitly assumed to be caused by human emissions to the atmosphere.
That's news to me! Assumed by whom? She doesn't say.
So she's also a "climate science advocate," just on the other side. I agree with you that other than advocating for science itself, any sort of "science advocate" is oxymoronic. Once you're doing advocacy, it's no longer science. That applies to Judith as much as anyone.
Looking to her scientific claims, she's right in line with the consensus. In fact she says so herself.
Virtually all academic climate scientists are within the so-called 97 percent consensus regarding the existence of a human impact on warming of the Earth's climate.
Herself included. So... she's right there with the agw crowd. Looks like you're a believer after all!
Glad you are reading Judith Curry from her blog Nov. 2, 2022:
"Growing realization by the climate establishment that the threat of future warming has been cut in half over the past 5 years.
Summary: The climate “catastrophe” isn’t what it used to be. Circa 2013 with publication of the IPCC AR5 Report, RCP8.5 was regarded as the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with expected warming of 4 to 5 oC by 2100. Now there is growing acceptance that RCP8.5 is implausible, and RCP4.5 is arguably the current business-as-usual emissions scenario. Only a few years ago, an emissions trajectory that followed RCP4.5 with 2 to 3 oC warming was regarded as climate policy success. As limiting warming to 2 oC seems to be in reach (now deemed to be the “threshold of catastrophe”),[i] the goal posts were moved in 2018 to reduce the warming target to 1.5 oC."
The vast majority of skeptics agree with the 97% consensus, including myself. What is misrepresented in the 97% consensus is the belief that the sole and/or primary cause of the current warming is greenhouse gases. Its only the activists that ignore / rule out any natural causes and / or variations . Its the activists that cant grasp what the 97% consensus actually represents. Thus , their misunderstanding and misrepresentation.
Wherein it's revealed that you don't have a problem with climate science after all, only climate activists.
Such as Judith Curry.
owatwo 16 hours ago
Flag Comment Mute User
"Solar and wind are far from sustainable. windmills barely last 20 years, and solar panels are no better. But the fact is they supplement fossil fuels, but do not REPLACE."
That points to one of the major fallacies (among other math & logic errors) for computing LCOE for renewables. The lifes spans used in the computation are generally 1.25-1.5x of actual life spans of renewables.
You appear to be placing the blame for a wide variety of issues on the scientists that studied the virus and created a working vaccine in record time. They did their job. Their job doesn't include the logistics or politics of distribution. They are not responsible for people refusing the vaccine. They are not responsible for deaths prior to the vaccine's release. They are not responsible for the price of the vaccine.
I look around and see 7 million deaths and see tragedy and suffering used by populists as a political opportunity and not as a failure of science.