The Volokh Conspiracy
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Scientists Urge Investigation of Theory COVID-19 Escaped from a Lab In Wuhan
A letter in the prestigious journal Science calls for a full investigation.
Did COVID-19 originate in a lab? This suggestion is not confined to conspiracy theories--at least not anymore. National Review's Jim Geraghty has been documenting evidence for such theories for months, noting that the lab-escape theory does not mean that COVID-19 was invented or augmented by researchers. It is equally (if not more) plausible that it was the subject of research in a lab before its eventual escape.
A long essay by former NYT reporter Nicholas Wade has fostered greater discussion of the lab-escape, as Reason's Ronald Bailey noted here. Now a group of scientists have published a letter in Science, perhaps the world's most prestigious scientific publication, urging greater investigation of the theory and COVID-19's origins.
The letter begins:
On 30 December 2019, the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases notified the world about a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China (1). Since then, scientists have made remarkable progress in understanding the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), its transmission, pathogenesis, and mitigation by vaccines, therapeutics, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Yet more investigation is still needed to determine the origin of the pandemic. Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable. Knowing how COVID-19 emerged is critical for informing global strategies to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks.
As the letter stresses, it is important to understand where COVID-19 originated, and prior investigations of a possible lab leak have been insufficient. The reality is we are not sure where COVID-19 came from, but it is important that researchers are allowed to try and find out.
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So hey -- it only took about a year and a half for the initial reflexive 1000-mile multi-animal-hop magic bullet theory to at least share the stage with the idea that this novel virus that suddenly graced us with its presence might -- just might -- have leaked from the gain-of-function research lab right down the street from the initial epicenter.
Maybe there's hope.
There is no less evidence for the lab origin than for the mainstream batburger hypothesis. The only reason why the latter is mainstream in Western Media is because of Orange Man Bad Syndrome.
That's true, but, "Orange Man Bad Syndrome" is not entirely unjustified. Or, perhaps, "Orange Man Unreliable (Especially When Talking About Science Issues) Syndrome" might be a better term for it.
If you think trump is bad try Fauci who has been wrong more than the average person and has a long history of being wrong long before covid yet is still somehow seen as the top us authority and a virtual celebrity.
What are you talking about?
Dr. Anthony "With all due modesty, I think I’m pretty effective" Fauci?
The guy in this picture? https://www.instyle.com/news/dr-fauci-says-with-all-due-modesty-i-think-im-pretty-effective
Dr. Fauci is not a virtual celebrity. He is a real celebrity.
Dr. Fauci is a real life Ron Burgandy.
As in this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BuOaeUWmdw
How many pandemics have been shown to be from labs vs. from animal transmission?
Those aren’t mutually exclusive.
Chipotles have not been responsible for the majority of food borne illnesses throughout history. Therefore its impossible for Chipotles to spread food borne illnesses and all those stories about people getting sick from eating at Chipotles are mass delusions or conspiracies from evil Trumpsters.
If there was a sickness and someone said 'it's from Cause Y that's common' then, yeah, if someone said 'it's from Chipolte's!' and the latter had little track record of producing that kind of thing I'd be very skeptical, and I *should* be. The only principle of logic you're operating on is: Dear Leader said it!
Dear Leader, like a broken clock, might be write twice a day, but that's still dumb logic.
There haven't been high tech biosafety labs mutating viruses for very long. Historical patterns over the past few millennia are meaningless in this case. What matters is where the evidence points to in this case. I never said I only believed in the lab hypothesis because Trump said so. If you are going to argue with the imaginary people in your head. Just move over to the corner by yourself so you can have the debate in peace.
I will ask you plainly: if X has no record of causing Y, but Z has, is it irrational for a layperson to be hesitant to accepting the hypothesis that X caused a given current Y rather than a hypothesis that Z caused it?
If there is no evidence of X not causing Y (perhaps because X is too new to have a record either way), then yes it is irrational to have an opinion yet. One should be neither hesitant to credulous but should look for evidence that would answer the question.
Can we please have an edit button?
That should have been "neither hesitant nor credulous".
theres tons of lab accidents. Many involving being infected from the laboratory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_laboratory_biosecurity
Not very many severe worldwide plagues admittedly but the n in general is very low here anyway.
Who cares how many pandemics have resulted from lab leaks? What matters is the origin of this particular one. Where others came from has no bearing on where this one came from.
How many pandemics have their original epicenter two blocks from a lab?
The problem is that this can’t even be seriously investigated because, like everything else related to this pandemic, it’s been politicized by the zealots. If Trump claimed it we can’t possibly let it be found to be true, even if Trump somehow stumbled onto a rare accurate statement.
If you're going to accuse people of being blind to a source then the question of how often does such a source produce the effect in question is simply one of inductive logic.
"inductive logic."
Drink
That's *lived* logic, don't forget.
I have no idea how credible this is. How probable. It seems plausible, as does the natural alternative. But the issue you raise seems completely irrelevant to that question. A similar form of question would be "how often do pandemics arise in the same city that has a research lab studying the disease vector"?
I think they are right to discount the heavily China influenced WHO's dismissive report. A fair/open investigation surely serves most countries interest.
Gypsy moth caterpillars and killer bees both escaped from labs.
Prior to this the possibility was not coming from credible sources, who were spinning it for racist reasons.
Oh, please.
1. The possibility has always existed, independent of any source talking about it.
2. There are plenty of reasons (some might go so far as to say nearly all of them) someone might to want to understand whether a virus leaked from a gain-of-function research lab that have diddly squat to do with "racism."
Don't be lazy.
What are some of the racist reasons you've identified?
The Chinese Government likes to be right?
Yeah, only the scientist who was doing the research said it escaped, and then she was silenced.
Probably some low-level flunky took the dead infected bats to the "Wet Market" instead of incinerating them to earn a little extra scratch. That is how China works (I know; I have lived and worked in China and seen that sort of stuff first hand)
That is exactly what I thought happened....
The story I heard, from a Chinese newspaper (since taken down), was that an infected bat bit a researcher. He hid the mistake rather than report it, and he came down sick. Sometime in this period, he had gone shopping, which caused the first official infections.
"not coming from credible sources"
While the bat theory was coming from very credible CCP sources, comrade.
No enemies to the left!
You guys so desperately want there to be a Dem-China axis to match your GOP-Russia axis. Too bad, Charlie. No such thing. Biden acknowledging Taiwan several times now is a tough action to jive with claims of being beholden to China.
The director of the CDC said this long ago. But you run back to your bubble of ignorance and ask NBC News to tell you what to think.
"who were spinning it for racist reasons.'
Nonsense.
One does not have to be racist to find most actions of the Xi government to be vile if not criminal.
Don, I don't think that's what said. It's not that any criticism of China is racist, it's that Trump's criticisms of China often were based in that.
As is often the case Trump's craziness negatively impacts anything he associates with, whether that's 'fair' or not.
I have been trying to forget that Trump exists
Well I guess you are going to have to reassess who you see as credible.
The relevant written (or digital) records at Wuhan lab, assuming any were ever created, are long gone. Nothing will ever be found there. That is not an accident.
Since this is a legal blog, I'll ask: Is the proposed investigation about figuring out potential legal liability?
You raise an interesting question, especially if NIAID sponsored some related work at the Wuhan lab.
I don't think legal liability is the important question. The important question is 'should we be doing human pathogen gain of function studies in BSL2 labs?
"doing human pathogen gain of function studies in BSL2 labs?"
The Wuhan lab has BSL-4 facilities
OK, I'll bite. Should we being doing human pathogen gain of function studies in BSL4 facilities?
I have not studied the ethics of the basic question: Should we being doing pathogen gain of function studies?
If the answer is yes AND if the answer to the question, "should we be testing the consequent viruses on human mice surrogates" is also yes, then I would should hope those to be done in BSL4 facilities.
"The Wuhan lab has BSL-4 facilities"
Indeed it does. However, it also has BSL-2 facilities. And from the linked article: "Much of Shi’s work on gain-of-function in coronaviruses was performed at the BSL2 safety level, as is stated in her publications and other documents."
Unfortunately, the US is highly unlikely ever to obtain complete and compelling safety and operational records.
The Wuhan lab purports to have BSL-4 facilities.
Lots of things in China aren't as they seem....
My question is: how easy would it be for someone to engineer a similar virus but with much worse effects on patients, perhaps delayed effects? Corona viruses have been used experimentally as vectors for gene therapy- delivering beneficial genes to patients. It seems likely that a wealthy apocalypse-minded biotech-literate wacko might be able to add a harmful gene (a gene coding for a harmful protein or peptide) to a new engineered variant of COVID.
You also have to ask about toe degree that such an effort would be undetectable. Would a person who truly knew what s/he was doing be willing to carry out the work in a BL2 or BL1 facility or even a lab with no safety protocols?
They should also investigate Fauci's lifelong support for gain of function studies, his role in providing US taxpayer funding for the research being conducted in Wuhan, and any potential related negligent or intentional crimes against humanity by Fauci or others.
You're really crazy, dude.
The problem is that “originate in a lab” conjures up images of the Chinese developing dangerous bioweapons or even purposely releasing the virus as a form of attack. And saber-rattling and highly nationalist politicians and conspiracy theorists who like to bash China have zero reason to tamp down that speculation. Even acknowledging it as an accident can be used by such people to paint the Chinese as dangerous and untrustworthy, etc.
But if you’re basing China for its lab mainly it’s good to remember that Americans aren’t necessarily very with epidemiological fire either:
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/s0708-NIH.html
*very careful
If it came from a lab, this time it was an accident, it caused too much damage to China to be plausibly deliberate. (Making sure the rest of the world got it, though? THAT was deliberate, however it originated.)
The next time will be deliberate, though.
“Making sure the rest of the world got it, though? THAT was deliberate, however it originated.”
There is zero evidence for this.
“The next time will be deliberate, though.”
Also zero evidence and just pure saber-rattler speculation.
They embargoed Wuhan for internal travel while allowing international travelers to leave without quarantine, or warning to the world.
How China locked down internally for COVID-19, but pushed foreign travel
Once they knew they were going to be hit with Covid, they made sure everyone else would get hit hard, too. In the middle of two ongoing genocides, you have trouble accepting that?
Yes because there is no discernible benefit to them to do that. And just because a regime is deeply evil in one circumstance doesn’t mean they’re a cartoon supervillain doing everything as evil as possible all the time.
Of course there's a benefit: Relative gain. If they'd done the responsible thing, their economy would have declined both absolutely, AND relative to other nations.
Because they did what they did, all countries saw absolute declines, but China did not see a relative decline.
Good point.
"They embargoed Wuhan for internal travel while allowing international travelers to leave without quarantine, or warning to the world."
Indeed they did. And they hid the existence of the new "respiratory disease" for at least a couple of months, and they have always lied about the number of people in Wuhan who were infected.
At best China was grossly negligent and at worst grossly criminal.
And now WHO is aiding and abetting.
They sure as heck didn't try to prevent the rest of the world from getting it....
" it caused too much damage to China to be plausibly deliberate. "
Not that much compared to the US and Europe. China had real economic growth in 2020.
"paint the Chinese as dangerous and untrustworthy"
We don't need the virus to know they are both. They broke the Hong Kong treaty, provoke border wars with India and threaten Taiwan, among other things in the last year.
Do you find the CCP "dangerous and untrustworthy"?
CCP yes. Chinese human beings? No. But like you said, I don’t need supervillain plots to understand that.
LTG,
When most people say the "Chinese did this and the Chinese did that" they mean the government of China, not Han Chinese as human beings. But you knew that
Um I actually don’t know that. For one thing, the US has an extremely long history of anti-Chinese sentiment predating CCP. But more recently here is a United States Senator casting blame on entire civilization of people and not the current government.
https://mobile.twitter.com/marshablackburn/status/1334510812552163328?lang=en
This got 18,000 likes, won’t damage her career in anyway, and as far as I know she didn’t apologize. I think it’s safe to say most people aren’t necessarily making that distinction.
I think it is safe to say that you think most people are idiots, and that you are wrong and arrogant for thinking that.
The vast majority of Americans understand the difference between the Chinese government and the Chinese people. Your loathing for this country might be so high that you refuse to acknowledge its basic decency though. Some of you liberals get high by putting down America first.
Every nation that has done research with viruses has screwed up at least a few times.
Few have screwed up on the level of China, though - remember SARS-1? The much deadlier and less infectious cousin of COVID-19? Chinese labs have managed to leak that, twice.
That's why the idea that this was also leaked is also plausible.
I find the idea that this is a deliberate bioweapon release to be silly, though.
How about a deliberate bioweapon -- ACCIDENTALLY released?
"to paint the Chinese as dangerous and untrustworthy, etc."
That was a given, even before covid. Just ask your Uighur friends
Right. So just say that.
I said that but with covid their actions were criminal.
You're welcome to believe that they are innocents, but every aspect of their foreign policy says the contrary.
Leaked? Why not investigate whether or not it was released on purpose.
Oh, see, now you've gone and done it. The party line crowd was just milling about making the occasional catty comment about racism and politicians they don't like, not quite sure how to deal with this uncomfortable development. Now you've given them a bullseye. Buckle in.
Has it been "debunked" yet?
I'm waiting for end of discussion its been "debunked" of course without any actual debunking.
This was debunked.
The people who debunked the debunking have been debunked.
I have no opinion on whatever it is that you're discussing, but I will say a lot of folks these days use "debunk" when they should be using "disputed."
No they don't. That was debunked.
A Møøse once bit my sister...
Maybe some of you who can benefit from it should read the three reports of Chinese virologist, Dr. Li-Meng Yan. Here is her third report charging China's government with gene-editing the subject virus with gain of function genetic material:
https://zenodo.org/record/4650821#.YGR0_uT3aEd
“Did you not believe them because of who they were?”
Yes. Obviously. For the same reason I don’t believe some drunk at the bar trying to explain conspiracy theories: they have serious credibility problems. Trump is a notoriously moronic liar who notably doesn’t even read intelligence briefings. Pompeo is a blustering nationalist who wanted to suck up to Trump and Trump-world. Of course I’m not going to believe them. And it’s not like they’re actually studying the problem with any particular closeness. They’re not scientists and don’t have any background in medicine or biology or epidemiology or lab maintenance, etc.
Not believing things based on who is saying them is completely rational and normal!
Bush W had access to all that and was pretty wrong about those WMDs...
If it's any indication of how others who opposed Trump broadly will react, I read the original article and am thinking that lab escape seems more likely than not.
The director of the CDC said it too.
Follow the thhhience! *spittle flecked screaming*
Exactly. But it makes sense that cultists would think this because this is how the cult makes decisions and decides what is and is not true.
Is this source a never-trumper? Disregard all.
Is the source a namby-pamby nerd who has a PhD and not even a single pair of Truck Nutz? Disregard all.
Is the conclusion inconvenient for my policy preferences or worldview? Disregard all.
What's 5,000 Chemical warheads....
https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/us/iraq-chemical-weapons
45 was NOT wrong on WMDs -- I personally know someone who was over there and found some.
It's like having a box of cake mix, some water, and an egg -- you have cake batter once you mix them.
My goodness how sad, you're still fighting after Bush, Powell, etc., conceded defeat..You're like that Japanese soldier on the island for decades who never heard about the surrender still yelling 'Banzai!' when they see outsiders.
You do know a majority of House Democrats voted against the war, right?
No, you don't. Wow.
"Everyone." Lol.
PJ media!
Functional democracy indeed.
The Nuremburg Trials come to mind.
No, no, you're on your usual backfoot, not looking to entertain your attempts to plant one forward...You're engaged in classic conspiracy thinking.
It's conspiracy turtles all the way down for this fellow...
Classic false dilemma: You either think China did this particular awful thing or you are a China defender!
Uh just because they’re committing genocide against one group doesn’t mean they decided to deliberately release a deadly virus on the rest of the planet for no discernible reason with no discernible benefit. Awful regimes aren’t movie supervillains who always do the most evil possible thing in the most evil possible way.
Taiwanese delegation as invited to Biden's inauguration, Biden's state department visited Taiwan in the first such visit since 1978, and multiple statements from state dept and white house staff has acknowledged Taiwan in a matter not done in previous administrations.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/biden-sends-unofficial-delegation-taiwan-underscore-commitment-white-house-2021-04-13/
As for your comment about Joe validating genocide, you have either been deceived by partisan sources or are misstating the quote.
Read this, and tell me if Biden is excusing genocide, or if people who want to find something to criticize are purposefully misconstruing.
>However, the U.S. president said as the leader of the country he has to speak out against Beijing’s aggression in Hong Kong, as well as "what’s he’s doing with the Uighurs in the western mountains of China."
“Culturally, there are different norms that each country and their leaders are expected to follow,” Biden said, prompting critics to accuse him of downplaying the violations of human rights in Xinjiang's camps.
A strategic adviser for former U.S. President Donald Trump, Boris Epshteyn, called Biden's remarks "horrible."
Asked if there will be any repercussions against China over the rights abuses, Biden said: "Well, there will be repercussions for China, and he (Xi) knows that.”<
There is no discernible reason for them to deliberately release a virus unless you think that an evil regime must be cartoonishly evil in all possible circumstances.
There is a big difference between smallpox lying around (BUT why was it) and weaponizing anthrax.
81 voted in favor of war, 126 against.
I will ask you a question, and not assume you don't know the answer. Do you know how many of those voting against believed that there were WMD but that military force wasn't justified? And how many in favor of the AUMF knew there were no WMD but voted yes anyways?
Yeah I’m not surprised. Why would you think this is some kind of gotcha?
Yes, I have telepathic powers and I read their minds then. You lose, Professor Pedant.
There is a big difference between smallpox lying around (BUT why was it) and weaponizing anthrax.
"for no discernible reason with no discernible benefit."
How can you claim that?
The US, Europe, the formerly Great Britain, Japan, and India have all taken huge economic hits while the Chines economy grew at 2%.
China also used the opening to increase soft-influence in Africa.
There war plenty of benefit.
The Ability of China to mobilize and lockdown the country and tightly control the population limited the self-damage.
I'd say that they had the means, the motive, and the opportunity.
So you have to convince me that they did not have the mens rea.
Comment in wrong place
So there isn't a Uighar genocide going on?
There is a reason. To improve their relative position in the world.
You are thinking VERY superficially if you can't think of a reason.