The Volokh Conspiracy

Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent


This year's exit polls: Same gender gap as in 2012; same Hispanic support for Republicans as in 2012; and more


Chris Cillizza (The Fix, here at The Post) reports on the "13 most amazing findings in the 2016 exit poll." A few key items (though they had already been discussed in some measure):

1. Many assumed—I certainly did—that the historic presence of a female candidate, coupled with a candidate who had said things that would be offensive to many women (and was accused by several women of groping), would shift many female voters toward Hillary Clinton. But "Clinton's 12-point margin over Trump among women was pretty darn close to the 11-point win among women that Obama claimed over Romney four years ago," and there also wasn't any surge of women going to the polls either out of excitement over Clinton or disgust over Trump: "Women made up 52 percent of the overall electorate in 2016—down from 53 percent in 2012."

2. "In 2012, Hispanics made up 10 percent of the overall electorate. That bumped up, marginally, to 11 percent in 2016. And, far more interestingly, Trump actually performed better among Hispanics than Romney did—29 percent to 27 percent. More tellingly, Clinton underperformed Obama's 2012 showing among Hispanics by six points (71 percent for Obama, 65 percent for Clinton)."


Less than 4 in 10 voters (38 percent) had a favorable opinion of [Trump]. Only 1 in 3 said he was "honest and trustworthy." Thirty-eight percent said he was "qualified" to be president. Thirty-five percent said he has the "temperament to serve effectively as president."

Read the whole thing—though, as always, with skepticism about polls (skepticism that should be reinforced by the events of this election season).