Michael Beckley: China Is Dangerously Weak

The Danger Zone co-author joins the show to discuss China's peaking power, and why that actually makes them more dangerous.

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Michael Beckley: China Is Dangerously Weak

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What if the new Cold War with China turns hot? Just asking questions.

China's rise, decline, or potential for conflict is often clouded by propaganda and oversimplification. This episode of Just Asking Questions examines China's real economic, military, and geopolitical trajectory, focusing on Taiwan tensions, trade wars, and demographic challenges.

Joining us is Michael Beckley, a Tufts University political science professor and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His research argues that China's peaking power makes it a unique threat, blending insights on its economy, military, and ambitions.

Sources Referenced:

• Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands
• "China's Hypersonic Weapons Test 'Concerning': Gen. Milley," by David Rubenstein for Bloomberg
• World Bank: China's fertility rate
• Full text of Xi Jinping's report at the 19th CPC National Congress
• China's gross domestic product compared to the United States'
• "Chenggong, one of the largest new ghost town in Asia," by Matteo Damiani
• "Joe Biden says China will 'eat our lunch' on infrastructure," by SCMP Clips

Chapters

• 00:00 Coming up: China's economic challenges and rising aggression
• 01:13 What if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow?
• 05:17 Military capabilities and invasion scenarios for Taiwan
• 10:28 America's interests and the strategic importance of Taiwan
• 15:13 The Trump administration's trade war with China
• 20:47 Economic rivalry and the new Cold War
• 26:03 China's military modernization and hypersonic threats
• 31:10 Assessing China's actual military strength
• 36:14 Lessons from Hong Kong and implications for Taiwan
• 41:23 Demographic decline and economic stagnation
• 46:30 China's one-child policy and irreversible population trends
• 51:39 Xi Jinping's vision and the roots of Chinese authoritarianism
• 57:05 The nature of China's political and economic system
• 01:02:15 Rising assertiveness and wolf warrior diplomacy
• 01:07:28 Avoiding war and imagining a path to peace
• 01:13:09 Strategic missteps and the importance of deterrence
• 01:16:18 Appreciating global order and what's at stake

• Producer: John Osterhoudt

Comments

[Overt]

The real question is what if the US Military has peaked?

If China is dangerously on the precipice of decline, then the US showing in Afghanistan gave them all the evidence they need that the time to strike is now. They spent the past 20 years building the capability to destroy American carrier fleets, and there is a pretty big bet that they are very close to doing it. In 5 years they will probably have orbital platforms capable of rendering our fleets obsolete. And the trillions of dollars dumped into Afghanistan, only to see it conquered by cavemen in pickup trucks, tells us pretty clearly that the US is incapable of adapting to this new reality.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Dangerously weak? I think I know who our next state is!

[JFree]

China hasn't fought a war for 45 years. They aren't going to start with an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. The idea is laughable and anyone yapping about that is a moron. They have ways of destroying Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence.

China does have what the US no longer has - allies. And they are already leveraging that with the trade war now.

[Overt]

Who wants to take the word of JFear, who knows doesn't even know how inflation works?

https://reason.com/2023/02/02/covid-stimulus-spending-played-sizable-role-in-inflation/?comments=true#comment-9908500

Even the idea that China would ever want to DESTROY Taiwan is laughable on its face.

[JEP41]

Some here might be interested in reading about what a war with China could be like. Basically written by a four-star U.S. Admiral, the book is called: "2034: A Novel of the Next World War".

[JEP41]

"They have ways of destroying Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence."

I don't think China wants to destroy Taiwan; it seems to me that would not be in China's interest.

I think China wants what the U.S. would want if Hawaii had, for all intents and purposes: seceded from the U.S.; had a population that was effectively much more Communist than Capitalist; had the world's foremost chip manufaturing facility; and had struck up a cozy relationship with China that included some questions about the lengths to which China would go to try to keep Hawaii separate from the U.S.