Trump's Dumb Trade War

Plus: A listener asks the editors about the implications of Trump personally suing CBS to obtain transcripts from an interview with Kamala Harris.

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Trump's Dumb Trade War

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In this week's The Reason Roundtable, editors Peter Suderman, Matt Welch, Katherine Mangu-Ward, and special guest Eric Boehm lament the beginning of what could become a terrible trade war between the United States and its three largest trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China.

 

01:51—President Donald Trump signs orders imposing tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China

24:18—The Trump administration attempts to freeze federal aid and offers federal workers buyouts

43:20—Weekly listener question

52:08—Quick news lightning round: DCA plane crash, Elon Musk and government payment systems, China's Deepseek AI

58:26—This week's cultural recommendations

 

Mentioned in this podcast:

"Stupid Trade War," by Liz Wolfe

"Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China Could Start This Weekend," by Eric Boehm

"Trump's Tariffs To Tank Tequila," by Eric Boehm

"Challenge Trump's Tariffs Under the Nondelegation and Major Questions Doctrines," by Ilya Somin

"How Trump Could Unilaterally Place Tariffs on Mexico and Canada," by Eric Boehm

"Trump's Role Model McKinley Tariffed His Way to Imperialism," by Matt Welch

"Trump's Pro-Growth, Anti-Trade Positions Are on a Collision Course," by Veronique de Rugy

"The White House's 'Feverish Dream' About $50 Million for Condoms in Gaza," by Matthew Petti

"Why Is Paramount So Keen To Settle Trump's Laughable Lawsuit Against CBS?" by Jacob Sullum

"Trump's Orders Feature Nonexistent Emergencies, Illegal Power Grabs, and Blatant Inconsistencies," by Jacob Sullum

"Understaffed Air Traffic Control, DEI Are Unlikely Causes of D.C. Plane Crash," by Christian Britschgi

"How a Chinese AI Company Found a Way Around America's Export Controls," by Jack Nicastro

 

Send your questions to [e-mail]. Be sure to include your social media handle and the correct pronunciation of your name.

 

Today's sponsors:

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• Are you a student looking for a transformative opportunity that supports the foundations of a free society? Reliance College invites students aged 16 to 24 to the 2025 Great Connections Seminar in Chicago, from July 26th to August 2nd. This year's theme, "Reason and Free Will," dives into timeless ideas from writers such as Thomas Jefferson, Ayn Rand, and Aristotle. Students sharpen critical thinking in small, dynamic groups, developing the intellectual tools needed to thrive in a free society. Outside the classroom, they'll explore Chicago's vibrant culture—touring museums, trying improv comedy, and building lifelong connections. Parents, this program equips students to think, reason, and act independently. Go to reliancecollege.org/reason to learn more and apply. Early registration is just $400 before March 1st, including room and board, with scholarships available. Don't miss out! Visit www.reliancecollege.org/reason to learn more and apply.

Audio production by Ian Keyser

Assistant production by Hunt Beaty

Music: "Angeline," by The Brothers Steve

• Video Editor: Ian Keyser
• Producer: Hunt Beaty

What are we consuming this week?

Matt Welch

• Churchill at War

Eric Boehm

• I Saw the TV Glow

Katherine Mangu-Ward

• The Great British Baking Show: Mexican Week

Peter Suderman

• Se7en

---

Comments

[Bertram Guilfoyle]

This makes 3 posts in one day with essentially the same headline.

[tracerv]

And they are all missing the point. It's sad at this point. Jesus.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

It is sad watching them triple down ignoring the events from today while still proclaiming their views are right and reality is wrong.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Like the reality that trade deficits and foreign investment are the same thing, and you can't raise one and lower the other?

Repeat after me:

* Trade deficits and foreign investment are the same thing.
* You can't raise one and lower the other.
* You can't dehumidify a room by filling it with water.
* You can't save a village by destroying it.
* Trump is an economic ignoramus.

If you haven't got the intellectual honesty to admit even that much, then you are just a Trump fanboi who can't recognize reality.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

You really are fucking retarded.
Have fun being made a fool of for the next 4 years.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

You can't rebut simple logic either, eh?

[VULGAR MADMAN]

You’re so dumb you don’t even know the game being played.
Trump got what he wanted, retard.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

From sounding like sarc to sounding like misek lol.

Your "logic" was refuted this morning. You failed to learn. Your logic was refuted by reality hours later.

[Alberto Balsalm]

You can't rebut simple logic either, eh?

You did read his handle right? He's either Sevo or his boyfriend

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Some people wont give up on the weakly accepted "truths" they learned in high school no matter how often reality shows those truths to be wrong.

[Bananas]

Why is it so hard to understand that Trump is using the threat of tariffs to negotiate concessions??? And that thus far it appears to be working wrt Columbia, Mexico and Canada?

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Why is it so hard to admit Trump doesn't know everything and can't even get that simple logic down?

Why do you refuse to admit it? Hero got feet of clay?

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

It's embarrassing the number of strawman you've created today to defend being wrong on your poor assumptions.

Who claims Trump knows everything?

[Stupid Government Tricks]

If they were strawmen, they'd be easy to rebut. That you don't shows they aren't. That you can't even pull out your normal links and quotes confirms it.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Trump knowing everything is a strawman you dumb faggot.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Your comment makes zero sense. Lol.

[Bananas]

Wtf? Where have a said Trump knows everything??? Or called him a hero. I'm talking about his tariff threats having the desired effect.
What is wrong with you?

[Alberto Balsalm]

Why is it so hard to understand that Trump is using the threat of tariffs to negotiate concessions??? And that thus far it appears to be working wrt Columbia, Mexico and Canada?

It isn't hard to understand. What you don't understand is that Trump is playing these games with MY (and your) money. He could most likely have negotiated the concessions he got from Mexico and Canada without threatening theirs, and our economy. The fact that he is using my money to swing his dick around makes me nervous. At some point, some country will get tired of being pushed around and we'll find out if Trump is a paper tiger or not. When that happens, we, the plebs, will pay the price for his gamesmanship. If he can bring China to heal, I will be truly impressed.

[Quo Usque Tandem]

"He could most likely have negotiated the concessions he got \..."

Monday morning quarterback much? He won this game, and you are saying "but he didn't do it nicely and should have run other plays." As for playing with "our money," I cannot think of anything a government does that doesn't [and is therefore a rather shallow argument]. Sure, some are blinded by their faith, and some equally so by their doubt. No matter what Trump does or doesn't do those with that slant will never be happy, no matter what.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Stop trying to justify being wrong and lying about what the argument is dumbfuck lol.

You're becoming more embarrassing than sarc. Sit down and take the fucking L.

All your sophimoric views on trade and economics that assume an ideal system are wrong and don't work in reality. Just like I tried warning you of earlier.

You look dumb and ignorant. Rejecting reality doesn't work for sarc either.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Your insults are getting weaker and less interesting. And you still can't admit Trump doesn't know everything.

One simple admission, that trade deficits and foreign investments are the same thing, and you can't even admit Trump got that wrong.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

No one said Trump knows everything queer bait.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

And he follows up his strawman already called out with the same strawman.

Full sarc achieved.

This is just fucking embarrassing.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Trump knows more than you. A lot more.

[soldiermedic76]

I suggest that you change your handle to One Trick Pony. It would be more fitting today.

[soldiermedic76]

I say this because no matter what people posted, even when you admit it may be a negotiating tactic, you reverted back to the same tired straw man arguments. You did it with me, who started out with tariffs were a negotiating tactic that seems to be working. You response, to paraphrase, was 'they may be a negotiating tactic but...." And then back on your anti-Trump soapbox.

[soldiermedic76]

Take the L, you more than earned it this morning.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Both Mexico and Canada have caved in. Didn’t even take very long.

[Incunabulum]

OK mate. We've been over this all day - we fucking agree with you.

But the tariffs, even despite what Trump is saying about them, are being used as tools of foreign policy, not economic policy.

FFS, why do you keep coming back to whine about the thing we all agree with you on?

[Incunabulum]

I can't dehumidify a room by filling it with water - but I sure as shit might be able to get Canada to do it.

How is this a hard concept.

Yes, unilateral free trade is better than no trade. Yes, tariffs hurt Americans - but they also hurt the country tariffed. This can apply pressure to get that country to reciprocate in trade.

Reciprocal free trade is better than unilateral free trade.

That is the end goal. The gamble is we take this hit in the short term for better gains in the long term.

I know its hard for you Zoomers, but sometimes you have to do hard shit now in order to get rewards down the road. I know you want to just coast down the easy path. Adversity is character-building.

"I will endure, and in enduring grow strong."

[CLM1227]

Propaganda and Lies 101 - repeat a lie often enough people start to believe it.

[Spiritus Mundi]

Now that both Mexico and Canada (Ccanadia for all the black, female, and gay white house spokespersons) have bent the knee, I can't wait for Sullums "No, Trump didn't win the trade war" article.

[Bananas]

LOL

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Hey retards, Trump won the trade war.
Now GFYs

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

It wasn't even a trade war. It was using US advantages to get other countries to assume their costs to us.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Oooh, looky, one of your henchmen didn't get the memo, still calling it a trade war from this morning. Better snap him back in line.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Are you one of the mongoloids who writes for this trash rag? Tell the truth.

[SIV]

Obvious paid staffer

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Overpaid staffer

[Social Justice is neither]

That's true if they all have the salary of an unpaid intern with the logic in their arguments.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

This is just sad man.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Trump already won. I figured it would take a day or two longer, but Trudeau already caved.

[soldiermedic76]

Your grasping now. Take the L, at this point your season is over, better to take the L and get a better draft pick than to continue to flail around and get hurt.

[Quicktown Brix]

It wasn't even a trade war. It was using US advantages to get other countries to assume their costs to us.

What happened to "unilateral advantaged trade isn't free trade"? What about the trade deficits? All we got is some lip service to border security. This is our victory. Trump backed down.

[soldiermedic76]

Both can be true, I know it's hard for you to grasp but both can be true. As evidenced by the fact that China isn't included in any of the deals yet. I know it's a touch concept to grasp, but think it over some and if you need pointers, feel free to ask.

[Quicktown Brix]

You missed my point in your rush to give a condescending answer.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Condescension is the best way to communicate with you. For obvious reasons.

[TJJ2000]

Baby steps.

Funny how it seems the #1 rebuttal to an undeniable Trump success is....

...but, but, but it wasn't PERFECCCCTTTTT.
While the #1 reason there has to be a Tariff at all is Democrat SPENDING.

[TJJ2000]

..and specifically to this baby step.
Democrats incompetence to defend the nation against invaders.

[Quicktown Brix]

undeniable Trump success

We're not even a day in!

The world markets were in upheaval. Who knows what will happen in 1 month. Will the rest of the world unite to stand up to the bully? Has uncertainty in the markets damaged US trading and dollar dominance in the world?

What has Trump won? More drug war? I guess maybe it'll work this time.

And all those US jobs that the tariffs were supposed to save and the trade deficits; now you're just fine with how it was last week now that 10,000 corrupt Mexican National Guardsman will be at the border with emphasis on fighting drug smuggling NOT immigrants; smuggling which comes it with legitimate freight, not by border jumping mules.

"Undeniable Trump success" my ass. It's not over and we haven't gained anything worth the trouble.

Although it's not over, in regards Mexico and Canada at least, you have 1 other thing wrong. So far it was perfect; no tariffs were implemented. Trump backed down.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

5 for 5.

Sorry he isn't a simp that just takes costs other countries push to the US. LOL.

Man this has been a bad day for those with ignorant views.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

An even worse day for those who claim to have refuted reality.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Why do you continue to embarass yourself?

You were wrong. Fucking deal with it.

Idealism is often a failed system when confronted by reality. We don't bill planes assuming ideal gas laws and atmospheric.

You've been played by whatever book you read 20 years ago in high school. I sadly tried warning you. But your cinvictions are bordering on a religious belief.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

"Foreign investments are trade deficits."

Can't even admit that much.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

I already discussed this during the roundup thread lol. You're already proving your incapable of reviewing your religious belief in when confronted with actual data and events.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Dude, you’re wrong. Trump won, again. Mexico and Canada caved. Case closed.

Show some goddamn dignity FFS.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

They’ll have forgotten it by tomorrow.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Faster than that. You Trumpistas have already forgotten how hard you were defending Trump's trade war before his gamesmanship got results, and now it never was a trade war, we've always been at peace with WestAsia, and tariffs, what tariffs?

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Get used to defeat cuck boy.

[Bananas]

In the same post where you admit Trump's tariff threats have gotten results, you call the people who predicted this names.
This is TDS on steroids.
I don't like tariffs, but his strategy at least appears to be working and that seems to upset you. Take a deep breath and think about that.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

He went full sarcasmic this morning. It is pretty pathetic.

[Bananas]

Lol this is masks and boosters all over again. In real time they're proven wrong and all they can do is call people who are right names.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Yeah.

As mentioned they latched on to beliefs in high school and didn't have the intellectual curiosity to see if those believes are actually truth.

It is like someone taking high school physics assuming frictionless bodies and declaring themselves theoretical physicists while denying friction exists. Lol.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

We can add SGT to the list of commentariat members that Trump has broken.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

I never denied his gamesmanship might get results. I said your claims about tariffs were wrong. Suddenly it was no longer a trade war. Just because your positions shift like sand doesn't mean the solid ground moved.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

Stop defending your own ignorance.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

It was easy to defend it. See this mornings thread where YOU were wrong and those of us not relying on sophimoric beliefs are right. Lol.

[Stupid Government Tricks]

Trade deficits and foreign investment are the same.

You haven't got the integrity to admit Trump is wrong about anything.

[Spiritus Mundi]

So shuttering USAID will reduce the trade deficit?

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Keep repeating your retarded bumper stickers. Would me more useful to admit you were wrong.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

He was wrong about bump stocks. So? On balance he’s the best president we’ve had in decades.

You’ve been very wrong today. But that is what correcting is for. And we are all very generous people. Instead of screaming and pouting, just thank us for helping you.

[Quo Usque Tandem]

When a thread has run this long it's time to drag out this copy/paste and then mute the fucker:

“Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be—or to be indistinguishable from—self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time.”
― Neal Stephenson, Cryptonomicon

[Quo Usque Tandem]

So long SGT

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Yep. All the anti Trump articles published today have not aged well. After just hours.

[Gaear Grimsrud]

Rough day for Reason editors. But not to worry. Nobody takes these clowns seriously anyway.

[VULGAR MADMAN]

They’ve gotten used to having prolapsed assholes.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

I wonder how many of them cried today. Surely ENB, Boehm, Sullum, Lancaster and Binion. Welch too.

[Ersatz]

SO - Panama is turfing the CCP contract for the canal,
Mexico caved and are sending troops to straighten out their border
In a post on X, Trudeau said Canada will implement a $1.3 billion border plan and appoint a fentanyl czar.

Hmmm... almost as if the threat of tariffs was a bargaining chip to get policy concessions from other govts.

[Bananas]

No way!!! Since they have to lay off the tariff thing for awhile to have a modicum of credibility, I bet tomorrow they'll be back to rheeeeing about Trump's nominations all day. Or maybe crying about him not spending enough money.

[JesseAz (mean girl ambassador)]

Tomorrow will be how bad cutting off the graft at USAID was. That's where democrats jumped to after their tariff losses today. Can bookmark this.

[Bananas]

That's what I was referring to. They'll complain that not spending is illegal or something and the nuttier ones will claim this is grounds for impeachment. Forget about any principals re: smaller gov't.

[Juliana Frink]

You're probably right. I've been waiting to see how far the Reasonistas will go to defend USAID. And how "proper and lawful" it would be for the democrats to obstruct an official proceeding to reinstate their fully exposed corruption.

Popcorn?

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

If they keep it up, the general public will end up begging for a return to McCarthyism. Just to put an end to all the feral democrats.

[MasterThief]

It's strange how hard they go on tariffs when that would at least be a consumption tax rather than raving over our income and property taxes.
I do think there's a limit to how much run Trump will be able to get with his tariff threats. There's going to be a point where tough negotiations need to be had rather than pointing a loaded gun. The threat works because somewhat removing the USA as a buyer of their goods hurts those companies more than it hurts ours and consumers. If implemented it also creates a vacuum for domestic producers to fill.
Tariffs bad. Cool, I agree with that but it's myopic to the point of insanity for them to not discuss this in full.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

They don’t have any principles. Their motivation is their utter hatred of Trump. And I love how he brings this out in people.

It really helps identify the traitors.

[Rick James]

I have a question... if all the illegal immigrants are deported, will MediCAL wither on the vine?

Maybe Reason can talk about how our great institutions will fail without illegal immigrants.

Illegal immigrants, taking the insurance and health benefits that Americans can't take.

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

Trump definitely needs to do very thing in his power to cut off any money going to illegals. Including Medicaid related disbursements.

[sarcasmic]

Economic literacy equals going full sarc. Too funny. And the worst insult possible in these comments.

Don’t worry SGT. You’re wont be the first person the Trump cult has driven out for understanding economics.. Nor the last. They fucking hate that shit and attack it relentlessly.

[DesigNate]

Weren’t you accusing him of being a Jesse sock like three days ago, or was that someone else?

[Fire up the Woodchippers! (Trump Ascendant!! )]

He’s too drunk to remember.

[Rick James]

So is crime up or down?

[creech]

Regarding the 'Trade Deficit": what do those countries that are net dollar beneficiaries do with all those U.S. dollars they accumulate?

[TJJ2000]

Sit on it and collect interest...
Then exchange it for US labor (product/resources).
Making US residents work for nothing in return but their own debt carry.

And sometimes offer to outright buy the USA (4-D.C. states worth of land) like Japan just did.

There is nothing good about being that far in debt.

[creech]

So it eventually gets spent in the U.S.?

[TJJ2000]

Or they just take the US and/or anything/everything in it.
No different than any other debt collector.

[With Trump in, "now Lord you can let your servant go in peace"]

About a week ago you started your Tariffs will be a gigantic failure--- today (as I predicted immediately on here) Mexico and Canada have both caved. You again served the enemy , shame on you

[Weigel's Cock Ring]

I see that someone on the Reason staff has created a brand new sockpuppet account.

[With Trump in, "now Lord you can let your servant go in peace"]

Only took a few days for you to look dumb. Canada and Mexico have both caved. But I do like the affected serious academic look you posted. It screams : Shut up and listen to wisdom hidden for ages and now revealed through your humble servant"
And the hair , going for the Steven Pinker thing. Cool

[Quicktown Brix]

Canada and Mexico have both caved.

Trump caved. Canada and Mexico gave him lip service promises for more drug war.

[Weigel's Cock Ring]

If they think that they can still fuck around with us, they're going to be in for the rudest awakening of their lifetimes. Sleepy Joe Biden isn't our (fake) president anymore, surely you must have noticed by now that Trump is deadly serious this time around.

These countries won't get a second chance to keep their word and do what they said they're going to do, this is their one and only chance.

[With Trump in, "now Lord you can let your servant go in peace"]

As Kevin Hassett, one of the world’s most respected economists,” and now a Trump pick said on C-SPAN, it is perfectly clear from Trump's actual statement that it is not a trade war but is a response to drug importation.
God will visit REASON with a well-deserved destruction if you keep that up.

[Ama Valde Intellectum]

Don't you love the look of the guy at the top of the page. "I am sad and intelligent and still wear flannel shirts"

It isn't the things being done or the way they are done But it is a disagreement of First Principles
1) It isn't a trade war , that is dishonest to say Trump and his NEC adviser Kevin Hassett repeatedly said this.
2) This is what the people want even if you don't.
3) It is not Smoot-Hawley , cf remarks by Amity Shlaes
https://www.knox.edu/news/amity-shlaes-lecture-on-us-economy
She gives a talk today at the economicclubofmiami on the 3 P's
PRice Controls, Prosecution, Protectionism
She is the master on Smoot Hawley.
TODAY

[Ama Valde Intellectum]

Sure looks like Reason's audience judges YOU to be dumb and the drug wars smart (Trump and Hasset specifically said that 1) it is a drug war and 2) it is not a tarriff war)
You needed a spanking and got one.

And, being a student of Rhetoric and Logic, I would bet you called it a tariff war because you knew that if you used the actual terminology you would look ignorant. well that didn't work either 🙂

[Ama Valde Intellectum]

I thought you would be so embarrassed after seeing the great mass of comments calling you fools --- but alas some don't learn.
But the 3 errors are even more in view

1) It is not tariffs it's a drug war, said twice in the Trump statement
2) You look heartless saying that a war against drugs will only save a few people. ...there is aborton acting cancerously to make you scorn the value of saving any but a huge number.
3) Surely you don't want to keep defending Biden as having been the wise and energetic leader on this. I see comments about troops sent to the border under Biden. Blush for your foolishness, that move was despised in Texas.
Texas Rejects President Biden’s Border Proposals
May 10, 2024 | Austin, Texas | Press Release