Clark Neily: Regardless of Guilt, Trump Won't Go to Jail
The constitutional lawyer and criminal justice reformer talks about our two-tier punishment system and deep-seated corruption at the Justice Department.

This is the audio version of The Reason Livestream, which takes place every Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern.
The guest for this week's livestream was Clark Neily, senior vice president for legal studies at the Cato Institute. We talked about the indictment against Donald Trump, the parallels between the former president's behavior and Hillary Clinton's, whether the Espionage Act should exist, and deep-seated corruption at the Justice Department and the FBI.
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Despite this podcast not being in text form, thus *checks commenters* removing all methods of efficiently acquiring the information within, I came across the part at 27:00 which is rather alarming... so alarming, in fact, I think I need a second opinion here before I completely indict Neily. Up to that point he makes a detailed case about how the Justice department pretty much has Trump deat-to-rights on this indictment, then, after briefly acknowledging that yeah, sure the DOJ has got abuse-of-power and corruption issues, the real issue here is Trump is a clumsy, neophyte outsider (um, feature, Mr. Neily, not bug) and therefore he embarrassed the DC cocktail party crowd with his boorish behavior, thus resulting in his prosecution. Specifically, he admits that the Clintons very definitely broke the law, but because they were erudite DC insiders, they hired the right lawyers, said the right words-- specifically, they hired "white shoe" lawyers who themselves were DC insiders and could pick up the phone and say, "umm, you really don't want to prosecute Mr./Mrs. Clinton on this" and backroom deals were made.
Neilly is breezily suggesting that hey, this is just how business is done, too bad, so sad, Mr. "Oafish" outsider, but you're gonna get prosecuted for stuff that slick insiders don't. Hire better lawyers next time.
What a fucking cynical worldview a CATO institute legal scholar to have.
Just bake the cake, indeed.
Yeah, that's how business is done. That's the fucking problem.
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Of course he should know that the white shoe lawyers won’t represent Trump because there are well funded organizations ready to destroy the career of any that dare to try. In any case I won’t be listening to this. Cato stopped pretending to be libertarian even before Reason and the ACLU.
Or possibly the white-shoe law firms won't work for a client who they fear might not pay them.
Of course if he'd handed back the documents when originally asked, he wouldn't be in this situation in the first place.
if he’d handed back the documents when originally asked, he wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place.
Speculation beyond the facts. The establishment would have found some way to "get" Trump, no matter what he did.
He didn't bow towards the Clinton Presidential Library during the *checks notes* declassification ceremony.
According to SRG's logic, a bank robber would not be prosecuted if he simply returned the proceeds.
Brian Mitchell would not have been prosecuted if he returned Elizabeth Smart to her family on March 11, 2003.
This is a terrible analogy that has been pointed out to you time and time again.
The better analogy is that of an overdue library book. If you have an overdue library book, you aren't going to be prosecuted for theft if you just return the book.
You know that your argument is B/S, and yet you still feel required to make it.
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The establishment would have found some way to “get” Trump, no matter what he did.
Speculation beyond the facts.
Why would he "hand back documents" that he had the right to retain per PRA and federal court precedent?
What did Justice Blackmun say?
So when NARA first asked him to return the documents, why did he return some but not others? Why didn't he simply refuse to return any?
Did NARA order him to return the documents? Or were they negotiating and Trump's lawyers were cooperating when Biden ordered the raid.
That’s a bingo. This wasn’t NARA’s doing. It was Biden’s people. Desperate to sandbag Trump.
Given where we are, can we all now admit that the democrats have to go? There is no path forward as long as the democrat party exists. Other than our destruction.
Or possibly the white-shoe law firms won’t work for a client who they fear might not pay them.
Attorneys are unfamiliar with the term “cash up front”.
Perhaps they did and Trump wasn't willing to pay them in advance. He never did like doing that.
"Or possibly the white-shoe law firms won’t work for a client who they fear might not pay them."
Or possibly there's an organization operated by David Brock (Media Matters), whose only goal to intimidate lawyers into not representing Trump or anyone associated with him, and have threatened to file bar charges against any such lawyers.
Here's Alan Dershowitz on his run in with The 65 Project.
And here's an Axios Report detailing their modus operandi.
This is so incredibly fucking sinister. An organization that instead of arguing it's case instead tries to deprive other people of their civil rights by harrassing and intimidating their lawyers.
The only responsible solution is to pay them back tenfold!
How isn't anyone associated with this group disbarred? I would think that a lawyer advocating for an individual to be deprived of his right to counsel would be enough.
Are there any lawyers who have so advocated here? Not that I've seen, though I could be wrong. Note that while someone has the right to counsel doesn't mean that anyone else has a duty to act as counsel - unless state law requires it, of course.
No, you don’t understand. All Trump did was be “a clumsy, neophyte outsider”. He didn’t dig a hole for himself by obstruction and lying.
*woosh*
No, you "*woosh*"!
Goddamn you’re a stupid cunt.
Funny thing about that 65 project.
""The 65 Project was “devised” by Democratic consultant and former Clinton administration official Melissa Moss.""
""Attorney Michael Teter is the managing director of the 65 Project. He was previously a general counsel for Represent.Us, a left-of-center campaign finance regulation advocacy group, and he was an assistant attorney general in Utah. From 2006-2008, Teter was a litigation associate with Perkins Coie, a law firm with close ties to the Democratic National Committee.""
""Though the 65 Project claims to be bipartisan, 11 it is not targeting any Democratic-aligned attorneys who have challenged election laws or results in the past, and is advised exclusively by Democrats and Democratic allies"'
https://www.influencewatch.org/organization/65-project/
Nothing partisan about that.
They exist only to harass Trump and anyone aligned with him. Its lawfare outside the courtroom.
it is time to pay the same kind of donduct tenfold to attorneys on their side
LOL! Trump retained Roy Cohen decades before Bill Clinton was disbarred for perjuring himself.
If the courts and election fail us, more is required.
I think he is more describing the way things are, not the way things ought to be in his view.
He even says that he thinks Hillary is guilty of obstructing justice.
He acknowledges Hillary's (and by the way, Hillary is different than Bill, because Hillary was never President and therefore never had power to declassify documents) direct and confirmed attempt to destroy evidence by wiping hard drives, whereas he implies Trump attempted to obfuscate because of "video that shows staff, and I quote 'moving boxes about'". He also references thirteen (13) documents, yet everyone keeps talking about "boxes and boxes" of documents which... to me implies thousands.
The tone of his comments seems shrugging, to me. Bill and Hillary were the cool kids at the party... going after the King and Queen of the prom... why, it's just not done. Weismueller follows up with a reasonable question, (paraphrased) "So does that mean going forward we're going to hold everyone properly accountable" and he gives a byzantine, on-the-one-hand convoluted answer to that.
He also references thirteen (13) documents, yet everyone keeps talking about “boxes and boxes” of documents which… to me implies thousands.
This is a critical point to bring up: how many boxes is “boxes and boxes”? The case will probably hinge on the answer to this question.
It won’t.
Further, our constitutional form of government, such as it is, has some explicit things to say about 'selective prosecution'. Sure, you can swivel your savvy DC-Insider hips and say, "This is just how the sausages are made, yo" but as a CATO Legal Scholar, one would think that you'd point out the fact that this, by your own definition is "selective prosecution" and makes a mockery of the process, making us little better than a banana republic.
https://twitter.com/docMJP/status/1669727992778555393?t=KJQxzHxS6NFKWVQZKTKAqw&s=19
Here's THE problem underlying everything else for right-leaning people: judging by their very clear words on the matter, there's not a single founding father who would say we now live under a republican form of government or that it's even possible for us given what we've become.
Yup
It really is some pre-Magna Carta bullshit legal spitballing.
Oy, with the hip swiveling.
Nick Gillespie and Peter Suderman walking into the Reason offices.
Dit ... dit ... dit ... signal sent.
Did you just report Paul to the thread police again.
Trump’s prosecutors must go back and re-prosecute Hillary Clinton to make this prosecution fair and allowed to proceed?
Irrelevant. Trump was president, so there is no crime. Hillary blatantly violated her national security agreement and is guilty of various related crimes.
Trump was president, so there is no crime.
He ceased to be president in Jan 2021. Hence there may have been crimes.
He didn’t take the documents after he left office. He took them while still president. So no crime has occurred. Period.
Take the “L’ and move on.
"I think he is more describing the way things are, not the way things ought to be in his view."
State of nature ("being Natural") not-equal "the way things should be and could be"! A WAAAY important distinction to be made, here!
It makes me think of some very significantly DEEP thoughts that I have encountered on the Inner Tubes! See http://www.churchofsqrls.com/Jesus_Validated/#_Toc117957740
Don’t Confuse “Is” With “Should Be” sub-section
It's not God-awful long... Let me import the intro thereof, and quit...
One semi-last section, on sociobiology. Very conservative (Biblical-literalist-types) will accuse evolution-believing (sociobiology-believing) persons of excusing humans for “just acting like beasts”. If we are mere beasts, then we have an excuse for acting like beasts! Well, the good will be good, and find “excuses” for being good, looking into “Holy Books”, or sociobiology, or any other “thing”, ideology, etc. And the evil will be evil, and do the exact same thing! Do what they want to do, and figure out the justification later!
Well anyway, I wanted to briefly mention “infanticide and sociobiology”. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infanticide_(zoology) for some basics. Male animals (lions, monkeys, etc.) will kill the youngest, when they take over a group (pride, troop, tribe, what have you), to make space for spreading THEIR genes, instead of the previous father(s)!
Does this make it RIGHT that humans should behave similarly? The beasts do it, so we can (should), too? Clearly not! This is absurd! But here comes my fundamental point: To NOT discuss (to ignore) this (or any other) negative programmed behavioral tendency, is to lose an opportunity to be aware, and on guard! As Jesus said, “The truth will set you free”! Deliberate ignorance is (just about absolutely) ALWAYS a hazard!
Let me quote from the above-cited Wikipedia link, “Humans and infanticide” section: “Family structure is the most important risk factor in child abuse and infanticide. Children who live with both their natural (biological) parents are at low risk for abuse. The risk increases greatly when children live with step-parents or with a single parent. Children living without either parent (foster children) are 10 times more likely to be abused than children who live with both biological parents. Children who live with a single parent that has a live-in partner are at the highest risk: they are 20 times more likely to be victims of child abuse than children living with both biological parents.”
So there you have it! Whether we like to admit it or not, many of us DO act like beasts! ONE of the practical take-ways (in terms of public policy) is that we should only VERY reluctantly, in the WORST cases, take children away from both biological parents, and hand them over to foster parents. Hand them over to close biological relatives if possible. This makes sociobiological sense. And… Teach your youngsters to reproduce in a careful, responsible manner! Having 5 children by 4 different fathers is NOT a good choice! It is BEGGING for trouble! But yes, just as “wearing that dress” doesn’t excuse the rapist, having too many fathers for your children, doesn’t excuse infanticide, or child abuse, either!
Never thought I'd see Sqrlsy excuse infanticide in order to dunk on Tru... Ah, who am I kidding. Totally expected.
Fucking EVIL liar! Says that I say the EXACT opposite of what I say! Oh Perfect Servant and Serpent of the Evil One, HOW do You expect to escape the long-term and automatically built-in consequences of Your Perfectly Evil words and deeds?
https://biblehub.com/matthew/23-33.htm You brood of vipers, how can you who are evil say anything good? For out of the overflow of the heart, the mouth speaks.
Hey Perfectly Evil Bitch... WHY do you tell us that we should all torture to death, and then drink the blood of, all of the newborn Christian children?!?! WHY, Satan, WHY? (Just the same as Little Cindy Lou-Who, who was no more than two, asked!)
I mean, he eats shit, so why wouldn't he murder and consume babies as well?
Harder to digest than the shit?
Wow, what awesome wit! Did your mommy help you write that?
Ooohhhhh…….. I bet that idiotic ‘Tim the Enchanter’ bullshit came out.
Time for you to die SQRLSY. So go on and kill yourself.
So there you have it... Evil low-brow morons throw their shit at MUCH smarter humans, just like the monkeys at the zoo! Thanks for validating my point!
Sounds about right.
What we have been witnessing is the DC insiders regurgitating an outsider.
Neily needs to get lampposted with all the other tumors
Since you actually listened. Does a CATO no-shit/full-of-shit libertarian use "Trump Won't Go to Jail" as a balm to soothe the uppity, deplorable electorate, as a fig leaf to cover up the buttfucking of representative democracy with repeated political prosecutions of a viable political opponent, or both?
Like everything Putin and post-Soviet oligarchs did to Navalny was a-OK right up until they put him in jail.
Hey now, the drama isn't over yet there's no guarantee Trump won't end up in prison just in time for a convenient suicide.
We already have Pravda media, the rest can't be far behind.
We have a broad spectrum of news sources, including several with left bias and several with right bias.
Sure asshole. Totally fair and balanced.
Does a CATO no-shit/full-of-shit libertarian use “Trump Won’t Go to Jail” as a balm to soothe the uppity, deplorable electorate, as a fig leaf to cover up the buttfucking of representative democracy with repeated political prosecutions of a viable political opponent, or both?
I can't really say. That would require I get further into his head than I possibly ever could to make that judgment. To chemjeff's point, I do actually think he's just ultimately saying, "this is just the way it is."
I also happen to agree with him-- that Trump probably won't go to jail. Given what we now know about how far certain factions are willing to go, I believe that ultimately, the justice system will find a way to split the baby in two. They know they can't send Trump to jail because the optics of a sitting administration sending an opposition candidate to prison would ultimately leave such a bad taste in every halfway honest person's mouth, it may never wash out. So what they'll do is find a way to sanction Trump in a way that makes him ineligible for office, but leaving him without a prison-worthy conviction.
I know that doesn't answer your question, but I thought I'd throw my analysis in there anyway.
Just using lawfare that half the population thinks is illegitimate to disqualify a leading candidate for President would be enough to end our civic peace; Why would anybody treat the winning Democrat in 2024 as remotely legitimate?
There'd be no going back from that loss of democratic legitimacy.
Has the Equal Protection clause ever been used before, successfully or not, to argue “the other guy got off on similar charges!”?
I don't know if you'd have to be that fanciful. My guess is that a simple "selective prosecution" argument might be made:
Yes, I read that Wikipedia entry, too. But wouldn’t the specific selective prosecution argument have to be “another guy got off on similar charges, so why didn’t they let me off, too?”
Has such an argument ever been made?
It’s time to get rid of the democrats, they need to leave, or be forced to leave. Either we do the heavy lifting and cleanse this country of the left, or we won’t have a country at all.
It’s a simple binary choice. I need America. Democrats can no longer be part of the equation. Scrape them off.
In other news, the BBC did a fawning article on General Zalushny of the Ukraine military, describing what a man-o-the-people he is, then at the very, VERY end of the article-- the last line of the article in fact, this curious little tidbit was added, I guess for journalistic clarity:
The BBC asked Gen Zaluzhny for an interview. He declined our request.
I can hear chins being scratched across the aether on that one.
General Zaluzhny is quite the mysterious character.
They're pinning the Nordstream bombing on him, despite the fact that such an operation doesn't fit his role, and he hasn't made any confirmed appearances since being wounded in a "Russian strike". They've even tried to pass off old video as current. It's a real question whether or not he's actually still alive.
If he is alive, he happens to be the most likely figurehead for a coup should certain parties so choose.
He may bit busy right now.
Pushing up daisies is exhausting work.
As is pining for the fjords.
The power elite cannot allow the precedent of one of their own going to prison, even a disliked and excluded one like Trump.
Well, if this CATO scholar is any indication, it sure makes the *checks podcast transcript* ‘going-forward’ trip a little bumpier.
But again, if I take Neilly at his most literal, the lesson is clear: Hire the right lawyers.
edit: I've listened to Trump supporters and outright FANBOYS admit that Trump hires very shitty lawyers and I have a theory as to why.
Trump comes from the New York Real Estate world, where lawyers are seen as an unfortunate, but necessary nuisance. Hire them to get you over the humps and bumps in the process, and then politely show them the door when their work is done, and scrutinize with a magnifying glass every dollar they cheat-billed you for.
That's not how DC works. DC Lawyers are not a necessary evil, they're not just integral to the process, the ARE the process.
FFS, Bill Clinton IS a lawyer, Hillary Clinton IS a lawyer. Again, not only do you need to have the phone number to a good lawyer, you need them to be your plus one to the party, and it would be preferable if you yourself were a lawyer too.
Well, they were lawyers until they were disbarred anyway.
Yes, podcast and video transcripts are wonderful, aren’t they?
I didn't use a transcript, I listened to it.
But you made a little joke about checking a transcript. And I made a little joke in response.
A few things that help in securing the services of top-notch lawyers: have a reputation for paying your lawyers promptly and in full; for being a good client who listens to legal advice, keeps quiet when asked, and doesn’t do things to put your lawyers in awkward legal situations themselves; for never badmouthing your lawyers or throwing them under the bus (or doing that type of thing to any of your former associates, for that matter); for not hanging out with other lawyers of questionable professional character.
We're way past the point of precedent mattering
Isn’t precedent just “Whataboutism” now?
Good point
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I've been down this road for 25 years with winners and losers. People who lost one and then won the other. Its a rough biz, you learn to look at it analytically and disengage emotionally
2/ Ron DeSantis has effectively been running for 2 years, has raised well over $150m, is aligned with a dark money big $ PAC, has all the old Crossroads consultants, his media buyers have already locked up election season commercial air time, law firms, pollsters, etc.
3/ DeSantis is at a hard celilng thats not getting broken.
Trump indictment opens door for other Reps, too most voters they're interchangeable.
RDS unfavorability has to be high, he's gonna be the abortion candidate & 'i wish we had him for governor but who else is running?'
4/ read the embedded thread.
This thread ends here:
DeSantis is a great guy, beautiful family, fantastic administrator and CEO of Florida
I've seen friends destroyed by losing elections, and I've seen friends destroyed by winning (eric schneiderman, etc)
5/ yesterday chatting with friend I said Ron DeSantis is spending $$$ on the old Crossroads team.
Theyre notorious for "blueprints to success", then peddle it for $20 - $50m.
Today this article came out: "blueprints for tearing the DOJ and FBI down..."
6. if you think im fukin around, i hit 'em up.
"blueprint"
This tweet is from 2020, desantis has the same team!
lol, you people are idiots. If you want to speak "truth to power", send me your money
7/ “I got more to say”
Thinking more that desantis 2024 campaign is just to build up net roots support for a 2028 run.
When Bloomberg was running for mayor against mark green/Giff Miller/Bill Thompson/Freddie Ferrer, etc, he had 75 staffers before his competitor had 5…
And those staffers also locked up all the best polling, creative, ad shops, etc
But, bloomberg also staffed it with the best people, all loyal to him. Even Dan doctoroff joined him, etc
DeSantis campaign has built a massive staff advantage vs other candidates, but they’re crap
Most come from other governors races, thus can be a bad thing, why???
Because everyone knows Florida doesn’t scale.
A campaign that’s built to be “I’ll make the country like Florida” will lose 100x out of 100.
It’s too lazy a campaign strategy to not be a deliberate fail
Most from other governor races, all grift like Cox, etc and their biz is making ‘blueprints’, selling them to the candidate for huuuge money, and more consultants for ad buys with kickbacks, etc. and the usual PAC get rich quick consultants who come bearing schemes
Phil Cox?
Ryan Tyson?
WPA (pac hired)
For NATIONAL campaign?
some sucess calling easy races
Dem = shops like Greenberg, global strategy
GOP shops = Trafalger, Landmark, etc
calling likely voters and pushing “would you like to live in Florida”
Germans have a saying…
Reminder that I like desantis, I’m looking at technicals
If all his name recognition, huge dollar lead, big money PAC with closely aligned policy advocacy, marketing and so on, gets an abysmal yield why would 10x more money not produce the same return on investment?
I keep saying, Florida doesnt scale, has your pollster spoken to anybody, no republican is getting elected on "we're gonna make america like florida"
Ask anybody if this commercial works, theyll say "who else is running..."
Am i wrong?
reporters will jam an elevator with Romney and say “RDS wants to arrest pregnant women do u agree?” “said he won’t give kids their medicines, do you agree?”
500 protesters will be in lobby
commercial feelz kinda cowardice.
Maybe show him in that encounter saying his pitch?
???? Watch clip.
???? Why is he behind a desk
???? Why is he wearing a suit jacket
???? Why does he sound whiny, not ????
???? Why doesn’t he have an ????who couldnt say goodbye to his ???? of 60 years
???? Why do I give a shit about RDS tears,
he’s a bureaucrat
The stage managed tears
Reminds me of when Hillary read off the cue card “sigh”
[Links]
DeSantis is at a hard celilng thats not getting broken.
Trump is at a hard ceiling that is inching lower.
The ceiling is closing in!
Which is still over 50% of R voters.
Neither Trump nor DeSantis will win if nominated, at least if DeSantis is who we want him to be rather than a deep state mandarin (and the parties pushing his candidacy really elevate that concern).
The swamp has no reason whatsoever to not repeat the blatant illegitimacy of 2020 and risk a threat to the swamp winning, no matter who it is.
Glaringly obvious stolen elections have consequences.
Talk about plans or capabilities of either once in office betrays a critical misunderstanding of the situation we're in. Totalitarians don't simply let themselves get voted out of power.
In my opinion, we need a kamikaze candidate. Someone who will inflame and enrage the powers that be and thereby overstep, provoking necessary annihilation of the system and revolution of the people (even if that's merely secession).
The constitutional lawyer and criminal justice reformer talks about our two-tier punishment system and deep-seated corruption at the Justice Department.
The two tiers being Democrats and everyone else?
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Are you idiots really discussing sending the former Presisdent to priosn, for being an ENEMY OF THE STATE? If it was anybody else, you would beat yuour breasts, and rend your garments and denounce it, but if it's Trump - you pile on?
Reason, organ of the Democrtic party.
I don't think the goal has ever been to put Trump in prison, but to keep him from running for President again. Again, let the electorate decide, not the corrupt Democratic party.
Trump’s “guilt” is not really in question. As POTUS, he was 100% entitled to take any papers whatsoever into retirement – as decided by the Bill Clinton sock drawer case (and should be obvious from our Constitution). It is literally impossible that he committed any crime in the matter.
The real question is whether the real criminals – the prosecution – will face prison for the tens of thousands of felonies they have conspired to commit to frame Trump.
Regardless of guilt, Hunter Biden isn't going to jail.
Regardless of guilt, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama aren't even getting charged.
Regardless of guilt, nobody at the FBI will be held accountable for their crimes.
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