Will Trump Embrace the AI Future or Succumb to His Protectionist Impulses?

Trump and Biden both backed trade restrictions that ultimately lead to higher prices for the computer chips necessary to power artificial intelligence.

President Donald Trump's deregulatory impulses could be a boon to the AI industry, but his hostility to free trade threatens to undermine its progress. Policies from the first Trump administration and caustic campaign rhetoric caution against unqualified optimism.

Former President Joe Biden's October 2023 Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence invoked the Defense Production Act, requiring companies to report their models to the federal government—a move Neil Chilson, head of AI policy at the Abundance Institute, sees as emblematic of the Biden administration's emphasis on AI's potential risks over its benefits. Marc Scribner, senior policy analyst at Reason Foundation (the nonprofit that publishes Reason), predicts Trump will revoke this executive order and move away from Biden's precautionary approach to federal AI regulation.

This light-touch approach was on display in a February 2019 Trump executive order, which aimed "to sustain and enhance the scientific, technological, and economic leadership position of the United States in AI." In November 2020, the Office of Management and Budget published a memorandum that clarified that "agencies must avoid a precautionary approach that holds AI systems to an impossibly high standard." Chilson says that the previous Trump administration's "orientation towards advanced computing and AI was one of optimism" and celebrated Trump's appointment of David Sacks, partner at the software-focused venture capital firm Craft Ventures, as the White House AI and cryptocurrency czar. Sacks' pro-AI stance is seconded by venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan, who will serve as senior policy adviser for AI at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

But Trump's actions during his first term tell another story. His history of aggressive antitrust policy, including lawsuits against Facebook and Google, and his nomination of Gail Slater to head the Justice Department's antitrust division, suggest an animus toward the tech industry, which could stifle AI. Trump's nomination of Mark Meador to the Federal Trade Commission is still worse news for Big Tech.

Protectionist trade policies also harm AI progress. The export controls promulgated by the first Trump administration were expanded under Biden and met with retaliatory tariffs that increase the cost of domestic chip production—chips necessary to power AI.

Another challenge is the tension between the dangers of one-size-fits-all federal regulation vs. a costly labyrinth of state regulations. Adam Thierer, a tech policy analyst at the free market R Street Institute, counts hundreds of state bills and dozens of laws related to AI's potential impact on elections, deepfakes, and online safety. This "mother of all patchworks for technocratic regulation" will continue in 2025, Thierer predicted at the Cato Institute's December AI Policy Forum.

A federal regulatory framework also faces obstacles. When it comes to passing narrowly tailored AI legislation to preempt states regulating according to the precautionary principle, Rep. Jay Obernolte (R–Calif.), chair of the House Bipartisan Task Force on AI, acknowledged in the Cato forum that "there is not a high degree of confidence in Congress acting."