Ecuador's Second Presidential Election of 2025

Incumbent Daniel Noboa and challenger Luisa González have different economic visions, but both support militaristic crime policies.

Next month, Ecuadorian voters will choose between incumbent conservative President Daniel Noboa and progressive challenger Luisa González to be their next president. This will be the second presidential election of 2025, following the February general election in which no candidate secured the 50 percent needed to win outright(Noboa and González both earned about 44 percent of the vote).

Noboa, Ecuador's youngest president and heir to a banana empire, took office in 2023 to complete the term of former President Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved the National Assembly that year—for the first time in Ecuador's history—to avoid an impeachment vote for his alleged role in a corruption scandal involving oil and gas contracts.  

Noboa inherited a tumultuous situation—from 2018 to 2022, Ecuador's murder rate quadrupled. Just two months into office, he declared a 60-day state of emergency in seven of the country's 24 provinces. The order designated 22 criminal gangs as terrorist groups, allowed the military to patrol streets, and authorized security forces to "enter homes and intercept correspondence in the targeted provinces without prior authorization," reported Reuters. In January, Noboa issued a second 60-day crime emergency. 

These policies initially led to a drop in the homicide rate, which fell by 17 percent through August 2024. However, the decline was short-lived—January was the most violent in Ecuador's history, with 731 homicides reported, according to InsightCrime, a nonprofit that tracks crime in Latin America.

Under Noboa, Ecuador's economy fell into recession, largely due to an energy crisis caused by droughts that reduced the country's supply of hydropower—its main source of electricity. As a result, blackouts lasted up to 14 hours a day, costing an estimated $12 million in lost productivity and sales for every hour without power. In the fourth quarter of 2024, gross domestic product fell by 1.5 percent year-on-year, while the poverty rate increased by 2 percent. 

If reelected, Noboa plans to double down on tough-on-crime policies, including the construction of a $52 million, 800-person maximum-security prison to house the country's most dangerous drug lords, which he authorized in June 2024. His economic agenda focuses on resolving the energy crisis—though details remain vague—and reducing poverty by expanding social programs and wealth transfers, such as the "Bono de Desarrollo Humano," which provides stipends of $55 to $150 to impoverished families.

Luisa González, who ran against Noboa in the 2023 election, was handpicked by former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017). Correa was sentenced to prison in absentia in 2020 on corruption charges, according to the Associated Press. 

Despite her close ties with Correa, González has stated that she would not intervene in his legal matters and has denied any intention to pardon him if elected.

González plans to address Ecuador's crime wave similarly to Noboa—through a strong military and police presence—by fully deploying security forces to the borders to regain control and targeting drug lords. 

González has also campaigned on reinstating the Ministry of Justice, Human Rights, and Worship to improve rehabilitation programs. The ministry, created during the Correa administration, was responsible for coordinating the justice system, overseeing human rights within prisons, and improving rehabilitation efforts for inmates. However, it was dismantled in 2018 as part of a government initiative to reduce spending and downsize the government. After its dissolution, prison responsibilities were transferred to the National Comprehensive Service to Prisoners and Juvenile Offenders. Since then, there have been several human rights accusations of the treatment of prisoners. 

Her economic plans include transitioning Ecuador to a post-oil economy—despite oil meeting 82 percent of the country's energy needs—and increasing social spending, signaling a return to Correa-era policies. Specifically, she plans to expand social spending in violent areas, reduce the sales tax from 15 percent to 12 percent, and provide tax credits for women-owned businesses.

Despite their differing economic strategies, both candidates advocate expanding state power in the name of public safety. Regardless of the outcome, voters may suffer if these policies are implemented.