COVID-19 Infections in U.S. Are About 10 Times Greater Than Reported Cases, Says Study

About 40 percent of infected persons show no symptoms but may still transmit disease.


Researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have just published the results of blood tests seeking antibodies for COVID-19. This seroprevalence study in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) scanned blood samples taken from more than 16,000 people from 10 areas around the U.S. during varying time periods in April and May. The samples are not random but were gathered from patients who were visiting their physicians or hospitals for treatments and checkups.

Based on these test results, the researchers conclude that at most of the sampled areas "it is likely that greater than 10 times more [coronavirus] infections occurred than the number of reported COVID-19 cases." In fact, they estimated that the ratio of undetected infections to reported cases ranged from being six times greater in Connecticut, to 24 times greater in Missouri.

The researchers caution that "extrapolating these estimates to make assumptions about population immunity should not be done until more is known" about how much long-term protection against re-infection antibodies may provide. They further note that their findings "may reflect persons who had mild or no illness or who did not seek medical care or undergo testing but who still may have contributed to ongoing virus transmission in the population." The CDC recently estimated that about 40 percent of people infected with the virus that is responsible for COVID-19 exhibit no symptoms and the chance of transmission from such people is around 75 percent.

The researchers estimate in the JAMA study that the percentage of people who had been infected by the time the samples were collected in April and May range from 6.9 in the New York City area to 1 percent in the San Francisco Bay area. These results are from early in the pandemic and estimates based on later antibody testing suggest, for example, that more than 20 percent of New York City residents had already been infected by the end of April.

What are the implications of these findings for the future course of the pandemic in the U.S.? "The study rebukes the idea that current population-wide levels of acquired immunity (so-called herd immunity) will pose any substantial impediment to the continued propagation of [COVID-19 coronavirus] in the U.S., at least for now," states an accompanying JAMA op-ed. "The size of the epidemic projected through early May 2020 in this study falls far short of the estimated herd immunity threshold of approximately 60% to 70%." As the op-ed further observes, "Seven of the 10 study locations are currently experiencing substantial, as-yet uncontrolled increases in new COVID-19 cases." On the other hand, other very preliminary evidence of more widespread T-cell mediated immunity to the COVID-19 coronavirus suggests the herd immunity threshold could be closer than antibody tests by themselves may reveal.

Parsing the data presented in the JAMA study allows for the very crude calculation of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19, that is, the percent of infected people who will die of the illness. Dividing the number of infections estimated in the JAMA study by the total number of deaths in the various regions at the time the samples were collected, yields an overall crude IFR of around 0.47 percent. This compares favorably with the median IFR estimate of 0.5 percent derived from the well-respected machine learning model developed by independent data scientist Youyang Gu. Bearing in mind that these samples were obtained during the early part of the pandemic, the IFR for the various regions in the study range from a low of 0.1 percent for Utah and a high of 1.4 percent for Connecticut, both in early May. Earlier this month the CDC upped its overall COVID-19 IFR to 0.65 percent.

The IFR for seasonal flu is conventionally estimated at around 0.1 percent—although some researchers think that's too high—which suggests that COVID-19 is nearly 5 times more deadly than the flu. So far, more than 80 percent of U.S. COVID-19 deaths occurred in people over the age of 65 years. This death rate is similar to CDC estimates that between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths occur in people 65 years and older.

The JAMA authors conclude: "Because persons often do not know if they are infected with [the COVID-19 coronavirus], the public should continue to take steps to help prevent the spread of COVID-19, such as wearing cloth face coverings when outside the home, remaining 6 feet apart from other people, washing hands frequently, and staying home when sick." Until effective vaccines become available, that's good advice.

NEXT: The Majority of Americans Oppose Qualified Immunity. Where Is Congress?

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  1. every time you post something it tells me coronavirus was a cold and little more …

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    3. He missed the opportunity to point that although COVID is 5 times more deadly than influenza for people over 65, it is less deadly than influenza for people under 65.

      COVID is only increasing the everyday danger of death to the vulnerable population. Everybody else is in no more danger than normal. This is why mask mandates are silly and lockdowns are outrageous. It should be front and center in policy discussions, but nobody is willing to place it there.

      Oh, and Fauci needs to be pilloried for not pointing this out every chance he gets.

      1. >>Fauci needs to be pilloried

        I said something in March here about getting that asshole off the stage and was generally not supported lol

        1. Fauci is the dumbest doctor I have ever seen. He has been wrong about practically every major infectious disease outbreak throughout his entire career. For example, he grossly overestimated the future death toll of HIV/AIDS because he refused to believe, despite all available evidence, that it was transmitted primarily through sex among gay men. He is a political creature through and through. It’s fortunate for him that he’s spent his entire career in government, where he has not been held accountable for his boneheaded predictions. In fact, this is why he has risen to his current position. He is not where he is because of any special competence on his part, it is because he’s stuck around in government for almost 40 years and has learned to play the political games of the federal bureaucracy.

      2. Faucci was just less worse than the other swamp creatures available at the time. Heads need to roll all over the place in government but especially public health.

  2. Says Study

    of chicken bones.

  3. Estimates
    Outdated data

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  4. COVID-19 Infections in U.S. Are About 10 Times Greater than Reported Cases, Says Study

    So, if true, how would that affect the fatality rate? Wait, let me get a pencil.

    1. Clearly, it means that 10 times the number of people have died!

      1. They just don’t know it yet.

    2. While you are at it, lets correct the number of deaths to reflect the well established medical standards applied to every other disease. There is no other disease that is automatically counted as cause of death when it is merely a contributing factor.

      And can you also allow for the 25% administrative overcount that Birx mentioned?

  5. There is still nothing that makes me believe we need to lockdown in order to save 0.5%

    But whatever a conveniently timed illness to create maximum despair before a major election and solutions that did more damage than doing nothing at all is all just a coincidence.

  6. 0.65%? That’s on the high end.
    If the CFR is 2.9%, and the number infected is 10x the number of confirmed cases, the IFR is 0.29%.

    1. 0.65% is the most recent CDC estimate. It’s probably on the high side. The current study suggests 0.47%. That’s adjusting the CFR from only the geographical areas the study looked at. It’s a good conservative way to look at things. Not knowing the seroprevalence nationwide, it’s difficult to calculate a nationwide IFR. Calculating an IFR is hard and fraught with error. But it’s pretty clearly somewhere between 0 and 1%.

  7. There’s a reason New York isn’t seeing a surge in cases now: they were already hit hard and widely infected in March.

    Either that or the warm weather states are getting hit now because the AC started running. Cold weather states were hit hard when the heat was running. And staying home was always a bad idea — cold and flu season hits in the winter because people stay indoors more and get less sunshine.

    1. And they probably are already at herd immuity.

      Where do the 60-70% estimates come from for herd immunity?

      1. There’s a semi-empirical formula that relates herd immunity to the patient-zero transmissivity. The faster a disease spreads, the more firebreaks you need in the population to stop it from spreading. The formula accounts for that using relatively simple population growth models. The 60-70% number is a very rough estimate.

        1. Yes. It assumed 100% of people were susceptible, which was always crazy. Turns out a bunch of people are already immune to this because it’s not quite as novel as we thought.

          1. I prefer non-fiction.

    2. You take back your anti climate control conspiracies! If it weren’t for A/C, all the old people would certainly be dead this week (100 degree temps)… hmmm may need to rethink my stance since saving grandma is why we shutdown.

    3. The thing about herd immunity is that, generally speaking, as more and more people become infected, fewer and fewer people will be infected in the future. So, based on what’s happening in NYC right now, we may never be able to reach the 60% threshold because the rate of transmission becomes so slow as to be practically negligible. Plus, what Elvis said. Take the two together, and we may be largely out of the woods with this thing well before a vaccine is available. As I’ve said all along, it would be best if we allow the low-risk group to go about their normal lives with the understanding that it is actually a good thing for it to spread within this group, and restrict preventative measures to only the higher risk group, which will reduce the time we need to keep those preventative measures in place at all. Of course (to be sure) there will be a small number of deaths due to actual COVID-19 infections than there would be under a full lockdown, but once you account for the negative effects of a full lockdown, this strategy becomes the far more beneficial course to take.

      1. When we argue with the likes of Tony, DOL, and Jeffy, the argument tends to proceed on the presumption that we do not want this to spread. This is wrong, and that presumption should be challenged at every opportunity.

  8. Continuing the Sullum/Bailey blood feud update from this morning:

    Ron was at the bar, chatting up a moderately attractive brunette. “Baby, I’m a Reason correspondent. Play your cards right, and I could get you an internship.”

    Ron checked the website on his smartphone. “Damn. He survived…And got 2 articles in! I’ve gotta take care of this”.

    Racing back to the office, he found that his signed picture of Dr. Anthony Fauci had been desecrated. Ron took out his 88 magnum, and headed to Sullum’s office, arriving too late. As payback, he vandalized the signed picture of Sullum’s favorite doctor – Dr. Demento.

    Thinking fast, he pulled up the ouija board app on his computer, and asked for new statistics. Twenty minutes later, a new COVID article was complete.

    1. Not sure what your point is. If you’re trying to be funny, you’re failing.

      1. Find your way back after Federalist closed their comments?

      2. No he isnt.

        1. I thought he was vaguely amusing. Perhaps i’m easily amused. After all, it would be a good coping skill.

    2. I hope Bailey did all that while shirtless and wearing a cheap mask to hide his identity.

    3. it shoots through schools.

      1. I AM handicapped. I’m psychotic.

        1. duckies and bunnies. (*love* that movie.)

          you got those. i like those.

    4. Nice, but needs more “if you play your cards right, I might vaccinate you with my needle.”

      1. “…share my anti-bodies”

    5. I just can’t look away.

    6. Are the rumors true that Steigerwald is in on this?

  9. Much of the mortality was caused by putting people on ventilators. Turns out, it’s often safer and more effective just to turn the patient on their stomach. Who knows how many lives were caused by the early hysteria (and compulsion to blame Trump for everything).

    Anyway, we don’t need herd immunity. After the networkers are immune, this will dampen the spread. We just need to ‘flatten the curve’. Anyone remember that?

    1. Yeah, what happened there?

      1. The flattened curve went above the tail of the spiked curve like it was supposed to and caused everyone to panic after they forgot the reason we locked down for months.

        1. See goal posts, moved.

    2. Who knows how many lives were caused by the early hysteria…

      Is this a reference to what bored people tend to do when shut in together? Exacerbated by the feeling of impending doom… and Trump hate.

  10. Didn’t see the news for a hot minute. Tuned in this past weekend.

    But have to take a minute to celebrate the cringe-worthy Wallace interview…

    There are only 2 options in terms of his “cognitive test” (for those of you not in the know, its the equivalent of a MMSE, mini mental status exam…weeds out patients that either have severe dementia, delirium, or mental retardation basically)

    He said that the last 5 questions were hard and he bet wallace couldnt do them. They are all cake! The whole test is literally to weed out someone who has their brain not wurkin guud. Nothing is hard, if you have average to below average intelligence, you pass easily.

    The two scenarios, both expected and scary are:

    1) He took the test, and found these pedestrian questions difficult, in which case, my 5th grader would quickly outdo him in this test

    2) He didnt take it at all, bragged about doing well in it, and just assumed the last 5 questions were progressively more difficult (they arent), and is so comfortable with pathologically lying about things and being publicly wrong that this rolled off his shoulder

    Dont know whats worse. Hilarious to watch though. I have had 80 year olds with ICU delerium that have done better than he did on his test! Jesus Christ how embarrassing.

    You Trump cultists are more in the minority by the day, btw, enjoy the rest of the show

    1. >>Trump cultists are more in the minority by the day

      you and Wallace keep the fever dream

    2. Of course, he took a MoCA, not an MMSE.

    3. The leading theory is Trump had some kind of stroke episode and they made him take the test afterwards to see if his brain was affected.

      1. Now do Biden.

        1. The leading theory is that Biden was never very smart, and has been in mental decline for years.

          1. Correct. Starting at birth.

      2. He just turned 74. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to have had one. The job ages people, and never, ever lets up.

        Still seems to have his shit together better than Biden. An Après moi, le déluge moment if Trump kicks it before the election though.

        You will find his Rightist, populist successor to be infinitely worse.

    4. Trump may be losing it but he still has more than Biden

    5. I know preschoolers who know how to post on the correct article.

    6. “The two scenarios,”

      You left out one…

      3) He took the test, and found these pedestrian questions easy but said they were difficult, knowing all the idiots and Democrats (but I repeat myself) out there would jump on his comment in order to point out how easy they really were. And then asked when Joe Biden would be taking this easy test.

  11. Glad the MSM is finally getting the hint that Americans in most states wont cave to Socialist demands.

    1. Not only is Trump going to be reelected but RBG will be replaced on the SCOTUS. Changing the Court conservative, no matter what Roberts does, for the next 20+ years.

    2. Americans are the laughing stock of the world right now.

      1. Good. Laughter really is the best medicine

      2. When are those misguided immigrants leaving?

        1. Again, Europe loves them some refugees, and the perpetually butthurt-at-Trump love all of their memories of Europe they made while backpacking through Barcelona.

          Win-win move, really.

          1. Start the Go Fund Me page, and I will help the dreams come true.

          2. Europe is not letting any Americans in right now.

            1. Put a maple leaf on your backpack. Adios.

      3. Eagles don’t care what the pigeons think.

  12. Here in CA, 40% of cases and over half the deaths are in a single county, Los Angeles.

    Notice that the number of Hospitalizations there starts spiking on 6/13- 2 weeks after hundreds of thousands of people gathered in downtown LA to protest the death of George Floyd. Note that bars weren’t even allowed to open in Los Angeles until 6/18 – after cases had already started spiking.

    But sure, Gov Newsance, shut down the bars. That’s what will do it.

    1. Since the newest rush of cases and hospitalizations occur in Texas, NY, and Commifornia, I suspect the biggest vectors for spreading the disease to different regions are non-Americans.

      I have been traveling and not wearing a mask for months. Never even got the Flu this season.

      1. I’m betting it is multiple things.

        Certainly in Imperial County, California there has been an outbreak due to people crossing the border. But that is a small increase in cases, compared to the thousands who are checking in to the hospital 2 weeks after a massive protest in Los Angeles.

        I don’t believe every protest caused an outbreak. The ones here in Orange County were relatively tame, with lots of distancing. But you cannot look at these pictures and say with a straight face that people were being safe:

        1. I’m betting it’s mostly because we’re paying attention to it, and we don’t for common cold and flu.
          I’m curious what the infection numbers, including test-positive-but-asymptomatic, would be for those.

          My thesis: covid19 is a common coronavirus, not significantly different from dozens of flu and cold strains, that has been insanely blown out of proportion because the global socialist “elite” have been losing ground since 2014, and decided to go scorched earth to hopefully avoid another Trump term that might prove fatal to their goal of a neo-feudal totalitarian one world order

          It is a crime against humanity

        2. Those who said protesting is okay appear to be racist. Let the black people do the opposite of what is suppose to protect them from the virus and they can get sick and kill their grandmas.

    2. And kept his winery open while shut the competition down.

  13. Boy, it sure is great to get estimates of what seroprevalence was in April and May, now that it’s late July. I guess if everyone who had antibodies in those months still has them, then that cohort, plus everyone infected since May would tell us current seroprevalence, or something.

  14. We need to learn more about the role that T-cells play in adaptive immunity in addition to B-cells (the ones that produce antibodies). There are people who were exposed to SARS in 2003 who subsequently lost antibodies to that virus within a couple of years, but still have a robust T-cell response to the same SARS virus today. We don’t know as much about T-cells and the adaptive immune system as we do B-cells. Not surprisingly, the human body has evolved many ways to combat disease.

    1. It does seem that something roughly along what you are suggesting makes sense. Even for a non-scientist; there seem to be a lot of obvious questions:
      -how are almost all children immune?
      -how did it spread through every country but still, worldwide, the infection rates are really not “high” — even if we mulitply 20 million by 10, 200 million people who get sick/show immune response
      -is the testing really that accurate? There was super odd news story the other day about Mike Dewine of Ohio testing positive before he was supposed to meet Trump, then going home and testing negative. wtf?

  15. bruh they just mandated masks anywhere in public in DC

  16. FYI, I didn’t comment in the last thread about Donald Trump and his suggestion that increased testing leading to increased infection rates being ‘fake news’.

    In no specific order, I think we need to be careful about shrieking “fake news”. Fake news is when the News Media lies about something or carries something fake. The President lying– or just being ignorant of facts is not really ‘fake news’. When some political figure spews some shit, it’s just a politician saying some shit that was wrong.

    Two, I looked at the infection rates per 1000 and while I do agree that you can’t just easily correlate increased testing with increased infection rates, you might be able to correlate some increased infection rates with increased availability and testing.

    Example. If testing is hard/difficult to come by, very few people will even TRY to be tested. So if infection rates with sparse testing shows 10 infections per 1000, then with widely available, quick and easy testing it jumps to 25 infections per 1000, that doesn’t mean that rates would necessarily remain flat at 10 per 1000 even when the total infections jumped.

    If there’s only one testing station located in an abandoned building, down a rickety set of unlit stairs, behind a door marked “beware of the leopard”, then very few people will even TRY to get tested which will not only lead to fewer infections, but probably a lower rate of infection.

    But when I can easily test myself on demand, and test repeatedly because the testing facility is close and easy to get to… more people will TRY to get tested which could increase the infection rate as well as the infection quantity.

    1. There are also problems with testing saturation. Let’s say you have two testing centers in town. And there is an outbreak 20 miles away. Maybe one or two of those people are going to make the trip. Now you increase the testing centers available. You are not only increasing the number of tests, but you are also increasing the number of outbreaks that you can assess. Since outbreaks are necessarily clusters, this is a very real problem to account for.

      During the initial ramp up here in California, within a few weeks of the first positive person (who flew in from Wuhan) there were several patients in entirely different parts of the state who tested positive with no travel history. Within 2 weeks of the first case in southern california, they were detecting Community Transmission 400 miles away.

      Our inability to accurately model the effect of geography on viruses and testing, is one of the biggest problems we have when trying to guess what is really happening.

    2. I should mention that the study in question seemed to be just comparing the “positivity rates” of testing in order to determine that the outbreak was growing. The problem is that by and large the hospitalization rate and Death rates are contra-indicators to this.

      The peak in cases in April was around 40k per day. That is less than half of the peak a week ago (75k). But deaths have followed the opposite trajectory- 2700 in April vs 1100 in July

      By very rough math, if 75,000 positives yields 1,100 dead, or 36 positives per death, that same ratio would indicate that in April there were 98,000 ACTUAL positives per day, to yield as many deaths per day that we were having. That’s more than double.

      Now, I can accept that our ability to treat people has gotten better. But the virus would have to be less than half as effective, and that seems unreal. I have seen no evidence of people actually trying to quantify that number. We know for a fact that there are problems with the positivity ratios (we know that in some areas, total numbers of negative tests were not reliably making it back to the official numbers).

      This all leads me to think that there is ample reason to doubt what Mr Bailey reported yesterday.

    3. Actually, the NY Times(!) just posted a piece at the top of the page that shows increased testing might account for at least 1/3 of the increase in cases (though they spin it another way).

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    Federal agents have been permanently blinded by peace protesters in Portland. These are the scum that Reason is defending and cheering on.

    1. Is this what is known as a cracked skull for an eye?

    2. Assuming they are in fact being DOXXED, you know WHY they’re being doxxed? Because their identifying information is right there… on their uniforms…

  19. Great! Operation Corona Warp Speed dead ahead!

  20. Socialist orator Jack London about 1910 suggested a genocidal germ war attack on China. If this outbreak is a result of China concluding that turnabout is fair play, it would make sense to have virus dispersing capabilities already in place in These States, and possibly other redoubts of the myrmidons of Mammon. Our regulated pharma cartels don’t even have a vaccine for the 2004 communivirus, but there was no shortage of idiot signs plastered up in airports.

  21. Sweden did the West a service. It’ll take the mid-wits some time to realize it.

    While their lives go on, we continue to deprive ourselves of one. Which is the ultimate disgrace. We have no mettle; no guts.

    And don’t be surprised if the mask will have a limited impact or none at all.

    How do you like living through a health panic hysteria?

    1. I should add this whole mass mask mandate debate revealed to me how short sighted and irrational we are. Not impressed.

    2. When the Swedes are the gutsy ones, it is a sad state of affairs.

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  23. “Until effective vaccines become available, that’s good advice.”

    No, that’s the CDC’s advice, v2. The good advice was what we got before. Who are you trying to suck up to, Reason? If you lived up to the name of the site, you’d use some reason and recognize that we’ve been played from the very beginning. All of this masking and “stand 6 feet away” nonsense is based on the bizarre, unsupported idea that COVID does not spread by aerosol like all of the other respiratory diseases. Now we know that’s not true… it does spread by aerosol (aka airborne virus). Stand six, ten, twenty feet away, makes very little difference when the virus can float around on air currents in the room for hours.

    Masks stop aerosol viruses as well as chain link fences stop mosquitoes. Forget the nonsense about droplets… that might have applied before everyone wore a mask, but things are different now. Masks stop droplets, then convert them to aerosols. Now the threat is aerosols, and it’s way worse than droplets, thanks in part to the mask cultists.

    If you’re up for it, go read the abstracts of the so-called science that “proves” that what we’ve learned over the last 100 years with flu, cold, etc., and the last 20 years with SARS was wrong, all turned on its head by a couple of months’ worth of hasty research.

    The sum total of all that we have learned over all those decades was reflected in the CDC’s (and WHO’s) advice not to wear masks, as they do not help and can actually be hazardous for laypeople not trained in infection control. That was the truth, and it still is.

    If you believe Fauci’s “I lied to keep masks available for doctors and nurses,” you’re far too gullible for this world. We’re being told to use improvised cloth masks now… was there a shortage of T-shirts or bandannas a couple of months ago? It’s preposterous.

    It’s also preposterous to say that we should not go buy the masks that are on the shelf at Walgreens because doctors need them more. Are hospitals getting their masks at the local Walgreens a couple of boxes at a time? Are we supposed to believe that if we buy out all the masks that are available in normal retail channels, that Walgreens will be forced to reorder, and that wholesalers/importers will see those orders and say “fuck you, hospitals, these are for Walgreens” and send them there instead?

    It never made any sense to think our buying habits would affect the supply of PPE for medical professionals. BTW, while we are on the topic, ear-loop “surgical” masks are not medical equipment. They say on every box of them that they are non-medical and will not stop the transmission of disease. Actual medical people need actual medical equipment, and that ain’t it. Actual surgical masks tie behind the head.

    It also makes no sense for Fauci to say they knew masks work, but told us they don’t (for any reason, let alone the nutty one he foisted on us). If he knew they worked, and even if we accept the idea that buying pretend surgical masks at Wal-Mart makes actual surgical masks less available at the local hospital, it would be reasonable to assume that the shortage will end eventually (as it did, for the pretend surgical masks).

    Knowing that, it is obvious that recommending masks would be a tool that an epidemiologist would want to have available once they became available again. Why then would he poison the well by declaring that they flat-out don’t work and are actually hazardous when used incorrectly (aka the way that roughly 100% of laypeople use them)? Wouldn’t it have made more sense to just tell people then to use an old T-shirt if he thought it would work?

    How can Fauci reconcile that the “lie” he told was actually the accepted medical opinion on the subject at the time he told it, and was not just his personal advice, but longstanding advice from the CDC AND the WHO?

    Did Fauci’s “lie” that masks don’t work somehow tunnel back in time and affect what the medical profession collectively believed before COVID arrived?

    Fauci and the CDC are obviously counting on people not looking too deeply into their conflicting recommendations, and damned if they weren’t right for the majority of people, including the ironically-named Reason staff. If you apply just a little bit of critical thinking, you see that the “masks are good” view does not make any sense at all.

    Fauci and the CDC initially gave conventional (and it is conventional for a reason), time-tested advice that reflected the past 100 years of virology, and then they turned 180 degrees and gave a bat-shit crazy bit of advice that makes no sense at all, and did it with an even more bat-shit crazy cover story, and you believed the bat-shit crazy instead of what actually makes sense. Go ahead… check the facts, see for yourself. Don’t just parrot the propaganda from the government… for the love of $deity, you’re supposed to be libertarians.

    1. I’m starting to think maybe it’s all a psyop to get people back into normal life. “Masks work” might be the only thing that would get them outside and get this over with before flu season.

      They already admit they lied to you once, why wouldn’t they lie again when they need to alter your behavior?

      1. That psyop thinking makes sense. I hear a lot of people say the “feel safe” with the mask.

        1. I don’t feel safe, I feel uncomfortable when my breathing is impaired.

  24. Duh. Probably higher than ten percent.

  25. The numbers themselves have been the problem. First, because of the lack of testing when the disease was actually growing exponentially. Now, because of multiple changes to testing policy and protocol as the number of testing was increasing. I have seen IFR estimates as low as ~0.25%, with mostly likely at <0.4%. Half of the deaths are in nursing homes too, so many of the deaths could have been avoided just by protecting the elderly.

    I give more thoughts on the problems with the numbers in the link.

    I focus more on Chrisitians' response to unConstitutional government orders in the next link, but the overall point applies to everyone.

  26. Ronald Bailey continues to quote from “studies” which are nothing more than speculation based on inadequate data and false reasoning. “The CDC recently estimated that about 40 percent of people infected with the virus that is responsible for COVID-19 exhibit no symptoms and the chance of transmission from such people is around 75 percent.”
    What a joke – they estimated a 75% chance of transmission from people without symptoms! There is no data to support this wild speculation, but Bailey treats it as if it were a conclusion based on science. Junk science should not be propagated by Reason.

  27. covid-19 disease increase day by day. one solution is that prevent us is that hand wash and use face mask.

  28. Graph of covid-19 Patient is increase day by day and also death ratio is increase. don’t move out from home without any reason. hand wash regular to save your life.

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