Coronavirus

Good News: Coronavirus Death Estimates Keep Shrinking

From March 26 to April 8, the number of projected deaths from coronavirus dropped from 81,000 to 60,000. What should we do with such information?

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One of the most striking developments over the past two weeks is how quickly the estimates of death and hospitalizations from COVID-19 are being reduced.

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is the most influential modeler of the novel coronavirus in the United States, with White House officials and other public health professionals using the group's numbers to plan strategy and policy. On March 26, IHME predicted that if current social-distancing policies stayed in place, there would likely be 81,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by June 1. In its most recent projection, from April 8, it concluded that there would 60,145 deaths, a figure, as Fareed Zakaria writes in The Washington Post, "on par with the number of people estimated to have died of the flu in the 2019-2020 season."

National Review's Andrew McCarthy notes that IHME has been revising its estimates for hospital beds (including ones in intensive care units [ICU]) and ventilators as well:

On April 8, IHME reduced the total number of hospital beds it had predicted would be needed nationally by a remarkable 166,890—down to 95,202 from the 262,092 it had predicted less than a week earlier (i.e., it was nearly two-thirds off). The ICU projection over that same week was cut in half: to 19,816 on April 8, down from 39,727 on April 2. The projected need for ventilators also fell by nearly half, to 16,845 from 31,782.

McCarthy persuasively argues that "the model on which the government is relying is simply unreliable." The IHME is not simply changing its predictions about the future (which one would assume it would do as people's behavior changes and as new data become available). It's failing to describe present reality. From Zakaria:

On March 30, University of Washington researchers projected that California would need 4,800 beds on April 3. In fact, the state needed 2,200. The same model projected that Louisiana would need 6,400; in fact, it used only 1,700. Even New York, the most stressed system in the country, used only 15,000 beds against a projection of 58,000.

Governments at all levels have pointed to dire forecasts (remember the CDC's worst-case scenario of 1.7 million deaths?) to lock down the economy, which has shrunk by 30 percent over the past month, and to help pass historically high spending bills. Residents in Kentucky and other states who are diagnosed with or suspected of having COVID-19 are being tracked using ankle bracelets and other invasive technologies. Faulty projections of the need for hospital resources "has meant that patients with other pressing illnesses might have been denied care—or not sought care—for no good reason," writes Zakaria.

In short, we have completely upended American society on the basis on projections and descriptions that are unstable and inaccurate. There's no question that the estimated fatality rate and need for hospital beds are coming down partly because of social distancing and other changes in behavior. But some portion of the slippage in the IHME numbers is surely because the models, which presume social-distancing rules stay in place, are flawed. It's understandable why federal, state, and local governments have acted in such extreme fashion, especially in the wake of the CDC's disastrous early failure to implement accurate testing and the explosion of cases in New York, a state that was slow to action.

To date, public health concerns, especially the predicted number of dead people, have pushed all other considerations, including the effect on economic activity and the massive new amounts of government debt, to the side. But as the death projections come down and the actual hospitalizations come in lower than expected, we need to start factoring in other concerns that will allow us to return to something approaching normalcy.

NEXT: No, NYC Is Not Running Out of Burial Space Due to COVID-19

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  1. //To date, public health concerns, especially the predicted number of dead people, have pushed all other considerations, including the effect on economic activity and the massive new amounts of government debt, to the side. But as the death projections come down and the actual hospitalizations come in lower than expected, we need to start factoring in other concerns that will allow us to return to something approaching normalcy.//

    Something that should have been done from day one. That asshole Ferguson has a lot of explaining to do, as do the panic merchants that uncritically accepted his apocalyptic predictions.

    1. “…Something that should have been done from day one. That asshole Ferguson has a lot of explaining to do, as do the panic merchants that uncritically accepted his apocalyptic predictions.”

      Paging that lefty asshole JFree.

    2. “And then, having secured the powers and abilities it sought, the government tried to tamp down the panic it helped create.”

      1. http://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll

        From the article (and linked video):
        “How many people have actually died from COVID-19 is anyone’s guess… but based on how death certificates are being filled out, you can be certain the number is substantially lower than what we are being told. Based on inaccurate, incomplete data people are being terrorized by fear-mongers into relinquishing cherished freedoms.”
        – Dr. Annie Bukacek

        1. Annie Bukacek is a family practioner, pro-lifer, and conspiracy theorist operating out of that center of medical expertise, Kalispell, Montana. Here’s her accusation that COVID-19 deaths are being overreported:
          https://newstalk955.com/kalispell-doc-covid-death-certificates-manipulated/
          No facts, just her unsupported opinion. I presume COVID-19 deaths may be slightly overreported, but “substantially lower than what we are being told”? No way.
          She seems to think the only way to the truth is to conduct a complete autopsy and run tests to verify COVID-19. At a time when pathologists are being roped into patient care and there aren’t enough supplies to test the sick, who might be helped by the result, they should be wasted on the dead, who don’t care? C’mon. I can only conclude that the virus hasn’t hit Kalispell yet.

          1. She is a pro-lifer, but conspiracy theorist is a common smear used to discredit people whose beliefs and/or opinions some find inconvenient.
            From what I’ve read, she started her own practice because her former employer demanded she stop praying with patients and she opposes government nationalization of healthcare.
            But all that is beside the point.
            Do you really think there is no pressure/convenience/habit to classifying deaths as due to the covid when the true cause is uncertain?
            Do you think pneumonia, cardiac, cancer, and other flu death tallies are going to maintain their historical avg/day, or will their numbers dip?

          2. ” At a time when pathologists are being roped into patient care and there aren’t enough supplies to test the sick”

            Even if this is true and a valid argument for not testing the dead, an honest man would still acknowledge that not verifying cause of death leads to overstating the death toll from the pandemic.

    3. This is the thing about having a “model” that ends up influencing government pandemic response policies internationally, and national/state responses at home–if your model is crap, sooner or later that’s going to emerge when your math doesn’t match reality.

      When that happens, you can suck it up, say “hey, this wasn’t nearly as bad as we expected,” or if you’re really trying to cover your ass, state “Look at that, the social distancing recommendations worked out even better than we imagined!”

      You know what you don’t do? Retroactively ramp back your predictions on hospital resource needs for previous days by up to 84%, and then memory-hole the data from your previous predictions so people can’t see how badly you failed to foresee the upcoming “disaster” that got spread far and wide by the international media. All that reveals is that your model is a plunk-and-crank piece of bullshit.

      And just to emphasize this once more, these models DID account for social distancing measures; IHME stated it right on their website BEFORE they massively modified their numbers. Anyone who states otherwise is ignorant or a goddamn liar.

      Glad I’m not the only one who caught this shit. If these assholes would at least take responsibility for their fuckup, it won’t bring back all the jobs that were nuked in the aftermath of the data they were pushing, but at least it would allow them to retain a measure of credibility. But they’re actively hiding the data and releasing passive-voiced writeups with each revision.

      This little event of global mass hysteria was revealing, in that it showed how easily the bougie class treats credentials as imbuing their holders with a form of sacred knowledge that can’t be questioned. “IT’S SCIENCE AND MATH, YOU BOORS, NOW SHUT UP AND OBEY!!” These people are honestly a bigger threat to the country than the “experts” because they treat mandarins like high priests and prophets.

      1. We really need to stop treating modelers as soothsayers. I mean, I already think they’re lying with statistics the majority of the time but it seems a lot of people aren’t even aware that one can lie with statistics.

        We need more Samuel Clemens in the modern age.

        1. This weird cult of credentialism has been around for 100 years, ever since first-world economies started trying to shift from blue-collar, extractive industries to white-collar, college-educated professionals, and society became increasingly less religious. At first, it was mainly because the white-collar workers were far less likely to cause labor agitation, but it’s morphed over time into a system where having a degree supposedly imbues you with proprietary knowledge that others must listen to at risk of their own peril.

          1. The people at IHME deserve to be beaten to death by a violent, angry, recently unemployed mob

            1. Amen.

      2. But that’s a problem largely because too many people think science and math are too hard for them to learn too, and not worth their while since they won’t specialize in them.

        Maybe they’re right. Individually, what good does it do them to be able to critique the experts whom the bosses have chosen?

        1. Yet Mr. Trump is routinely blamed for doubted the original dire prediction of modelers and epidemiologists. He has been driven to tank the economy in an election year.

          Incidentally these infection models are all trivial compared to climate models. When the 34 major climate models disagree in significant aspects (and they do), the experts just average the models each of which has different assumptions and modeling techniques. Is that procedure good science? Hardly.

          So far we have not heard a panel of experts call to average the several covid-19 models. But doubtless it will happen. As soon as some politicians have the courage to ask for models to be run over a 18 month planning horizon with an externally specified set in assumptions and boundary conditions.

          1. “He has been driven to tank the economy in an election year.”

            Trump didn’t tank the economy. The economy has been tanked by business closure and stay at home orders issued by the state governors.

            1. Don’t forget the petty tyrants at the county level (at least here in Texas).

              1. Yeah, Abbott can take a hands-off approach, but that won’t stop the Boss Hogg county judges and mayor’s from over-reacting.

                In other news, LA County extended their lockdown to May 15th. That’s caused people to begin to question what the actual utility of this is, if they’ve supposedly “flattened the curve.”

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  2. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the-ferguson-effect.php

    Looking back at that Guardian article, Bill observes that Ferguson has a record of making stupid worst-case predictions about the threat of new viruses. Bill cites “what Prof. Gold Standard said in 2005 about the projected Bird Flu death toll to the Guardian”:

    Last month Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.

    “Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak,” said Prof Ferguson. “There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.”

    A Department of Health contingency plan states anywhere that there could be between 21,500 and 709,000 deaths in Britain.”

    The Bird Flu’s death toll from 2003 to 2020 is 455.

    Dr. Ferguson was equally off with his death projections for mad cow disease. He made big headlines in the United Kingdom by predicting that mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50,000. Bill writes: “Millions of cows were slaughtered. But to be fair, his scientific ‘model’ was right. The death toll [is 178 to date].”

  3. >>What should we do with such information?

    wait until Tuesday when they say 30,000…

    1. We are at ~18,000 right now, and it looks like we have peaked. So double that, and we probably end this at 40,000 deaths or so.

      1. And probably around 15,000,000 – 20,000,000 unemployed. But, hey, if we can “save just one life.”

        1. “friends” stopped talking to me because i wouldn’t cower under a table and worry about 400,000 dead in the streets. it’s unbelievable

          1. I checked out at a grocery store last week and the cashier, a young man probably barely 30, looked terrified because I showed up without a mask on I guess. He tried to hand me my receipt from six feet away but gave up and just laid it on the counter and cowered while I picked it up. A majority of the population is all in on this bullshit. I don’t see a return to “normalcy” happening anytime soon.

            1. Thing is, I think a lot of people are engaging in this as a sort of fantasy. Very few people live through a true disaster, and so I think a lot of these safe, white collar workers are living this like they enjoy horror movie.

              I was talking to a manager colleague and he was telling me that a bunch of his team members are so terrified for their family and parents, that they are having trouble setting goals for the quarter. I’m like, “I don’t know how to tell you this, but they are emotionally abusing you.”

              I am sure that many people are genuinely scared, and some have more reason than other, but an entire team doesn’t collectively lock up like a deer in the headlights unless you as a manager have given them the permission to do so.

              1. “I was talking to a manager colleague and he was telling me that a bunch of his team members are so terrified for their family and parents, that they are having trouble setting goals for the quarter.”

                None of these people, including your manager colleague, should still be employed.

              2. Overt, that has not been my experience. = people engaged in a sort of fantasy

                The schools shutting down has been a major disruption. Let’s face it, if you have Moms on your staff with school-aged children, your team/area/department is taking an immediate performance hit. That is reality. And look, why would that not happen, logically speaking? You got kids home and kids are well…kids. And kids get into all kinds of shit. 🙂

                Were the kids are home 24/7 not enough to deal with, there is still the matter of a spouse, extended family, etc. I know that the school shutdowns puts the working Moms I work with in a very, very difficult position. My observation…The Moms I work with have been amazing during this time. How they multi-task like they do is something truly miraculous. They are, in 15-minute increments throughout the day: Mom, teacher, wife, employee, friend – and they seamlessly switch between those roles. I have been blown away watching them do this.

                But no doubt about it…we’re taking performance hits. Nothing critical, but it definitely makes planning more challenging.

                1. Why should there be “performance hits” when you can get better, less distracted people to fill their roles?

                  1. Nardz…really? Just toss ’em out and replace ’em, right? I work for BigCorp, and that just ain’t the way it works. You don’t unceremoniously dump people, particularly working Moms without a lot of documentation and an extra-special HR seal of approval. That situation results in a gigantic lawsuit any lawyer would salivate for. Um…no.

                    Look, we are only human. What we face is an unprecedented situation. Never before in history has a country, heck – most of the entire planet Nardz – ever voluntarily just pulled the plug on the economy in unison. This is really unbelievable. My point? The Wuhan coronavirus pandemic affects everyone. So yes, there is going to be a performance hit.

                    There is nothing you can really do, Nardz. That is the reality. So you roll with it, be a cheerleader, keep encouraging people through this mess, and plan more carefully knowing you’re going to have performance hits.

                    1. “…Never before in history has a country, heck – most of the entire planet Nardz – ever voluntarily just pulled the plug on the economy in unison…”

                      And it was unnecessary.
                      No hind-sight required, simply a decent amount of cost/benefit analysis, which is beyond the capabilities of tin-pot-dictator wanna-bees like Newsom.

                    2. Thats the problem with today’s hiring practices, especially at places like BigCorp.
                      Over-credentialism, HR mediocrity, and employees that just get by.
                      Meanwhile, you’ve got a whole bunch of people locked out with no chance to get in, regardless of merit.
                      Work or raise kids – because there’s a lot of people who can do your job and don’t have to be constantly accommodated

              3. How is this different than any recession? The first thing that happens in any downturn is the deer-in-the-headlights mode kicks in. People stop making decisions. they stop taking risks. They hide in the air- conditioning ducts. Sales cycles lengthen

                A boss of mine once said – Every bad habit in this company starts in the good times. When you have a nice tailwind and everything seems to work.

                This is probably one of the downsides of trying to prevent recessions at all costs. And this is not a recession that is going to end because of subsidized money or fiscal stimulus or ‘creative destruction’.

                It’s gonna end when we beat the fucking virus. And that’s only going to start happening when we start to take THAT seriously. Oh – but it’s just the flu. blahblahblah.

                1. What more would you have done, jfree?
                  You’ve put 20 million people out of work, cut gdp by 25% (minimum), instituted insane monetary/fiscal policy, have people putting on masks and gloves just to go outside, and turned totalitarian power over to governments.
                  All for a bug that the doomsayers now predict will have a death toll the same as a bad flu season.
                  So what more do you want done, so that you’ll say it’s being taken “seriously”?
                  Please say “mOaR testing” so we can have a laugh

                  1. You’ve put 20 million people out of work, cut gdp by 25% (minimum), instituted insane monetary/fiscal policy, have people putting on masks and gloves just to go outside, and turned totalitarian power over to governments.

                    I am the great and powerful Oz aren’t I

                    So what more do you want done, so that you’ll say it’s being taken “seriously”?

                    the people who are going to make this worse are the folks like you – not me. The folks who are going to twist everything – always – yet again – into ‘this is just the flu’. The people who want to stick their heads up their ass and go back to the way things were.

                    At this point, the bureaucrats aren’t making things worse – they just aren’t making things better. And since we no longer have any sense of militia/citizen responsibility – unfortunately that does mean the bureaucrats are going to have to do the Epidemiology101 that they have been utterly failing to do. And that means they are going to have to be pressured to do that. Trace contacts, test for positives, provide a way to isolate them – give them free room and board at a 5-star hotel fer chrissakes – so they don’t keep spreading. Take the infected out of the non-hospitalized population as much as possible – so that everyone else can get ready to get back to work. And clean up the new vectors dammit – hospitals, groceries, etc. Those companies ain’t gonna shit on their own cuz the employees at risk are the bottom of the totem pole. And the bureaucrats ain’t gonna do shit cuz they’re being paid and this lockdown is YOUR problem not theirs.

                    This is not difficult. But GET YOUR FUCKING HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS. This shouldn’t be a problem for you seeing as how I personally have managed to unemploy millions and destroy the economy. Surely you can get a bureaucrat off their butt

                    1. “…This is not difficult. But GET YOUR FUCKING HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS. This shouldn’t be a problem for you seeing as how I personally have managed to unemploy millions and destroy the economy. Surely you can get a bureaucrat off their butt…”

                      No, you pathetic piece of cowardly shit, get your head out of your ass and leave your PANIC!! flag jammed all the way up there.
                      There were plenty of scumbags supporting Hitler and then claiming no responsibility for the outcome; we know you’re not worth shit, but don’t bother trying to duck your responsibility for supporting the crash.
                      You.
                      Own.
                      It.

                2. There wasn’t anyone here trying to “prevent a recession at all costs,” you dumbass–the state governments DELIBERATELY cut the economy’s throat with those insane “shelter in place” orders, with the full blessing of their panic-stricken constituents. If they had left well enough alone, there would have been enough voluntary social distancing by businesses that there would have been some pain, but it likely wouldn’t have been enough to trigger a full-on economic meltdown. That’s inevitable now due to a CHOICE made by our Top Men, and with your full consent.

                  But hey, you clearly don’t have to worry about depositing a paycheck, so why should you give a shit about 60 million out of work, right?

                3. JFree
                  April.10.2020 at 6:57 pm
                  “How is this different than any recession?…”

                  This one was designed and manufactured to satisfy cowardly assholes like you in the press and the government.
                  You, and scum like you, own this one.

            2. I’ve had the same experience.

          2. I sincerely hope when this is all lifted, you send them a final “fuck you” note stating, “Were all those lost jobs worth it? When you go on unemployment, I hope it’s as painful as possible.”

            1. $600 per week extra until July 25 along with no rent no eviction and other goodies. Not so painful

              1. Doesn’t do much good unless they can actually spend it.

          3. Save my favorite stat for later. 55% of deaths > 80 years old in Washington State as of April 9, 2020. according to WA Department of health.

        2. “And probably around 15,000,000 – 20,000,000 unemployed. But, hey, if we can “save just one life.””

          I’m guessing that the economy for 2020 will easily be 25% lower than 2019, possibly 30%.
          Thanks, all you chicken littles! Who needs prosperity when you can scream PANIC!! and loose the dogs of poverty?

          1. I’ve doubled my contribution to my 401K. Buy low. The market will eventually bounce back. Always does.

            1. As in ’08, we have yet to take more than a paper loss, and yes, the market will return-to-trend as it did then.
              But we’ll continue to thank the chicken littles for the restaurants we won’t be able top visit, the number of people who now struggle to pay the rent or the mortgage, and so forth.
              Thanks, JFree and Hihn, and the rest of you cowardly scumbags!

            2. My whole portfolio has returned 12% YTD as of yesterday. A big chunk of that was from my boring long term bond fund, the other portions being a short on SP500 and then a long holding of BRK-B purchased near the bottom and sold yesterday.

              I think we have longer to fall yet, but it is very hard to say with all of the FED activity upsetting price discovery. Right now I am all in cash and Treasuries.

              My bet would be next week to end lower, but I can’t place much confidence in it. Having the market rally 20% while unemployment surges to levels not seen even in the great depression is scary. This is a broken, manipulated market. We are not even close to a free market at this point. We are closer to a centrally managed economy now.

              1. “…This is a broken, manipulated market. We are not even close to a free market at this point. We are closer to a centrally managed economy now.”

                Thanks to chicken littles like you, JFree, Hihn and other statist symps.

                1. Statist symps, lol. Update your prescriptions. Or try to find a comment where I endorse a command and control economy. The closest you will get is me saying “Gee, maybe we shouldn’t create a system of incentives that causes all of our manufacturing to go overseas.”

                  1. Yeah, pitching the PANIC in no way promotes statist causes.
                    People like you, hoping others are even less intelligent, are annoying in the extreme.

                    1. I’m sure it is annoying when your contrarian predictions get you nothing but frustration, and my predictions are making me money.

                      No amount of name calling is going to change that. But you could start paying attention when I make a market call. I post them here. If you sold when I called it (Jan 29) you would have avoided the worst of it. If you had gone back long when I called it, you would be in the black while everyone else is booking 10% to 30% losses.

                      All cash and treasuries over the weekend.

                    2. “I’m sure it is annoying when your contrarian predictions get you nothing but frustration, and my predictions are making me money.”

                      So you are both stupid and dishonest.

                  2. Pedo Jeffy, cut the shit with the sock puppets. It fools no one.

                    1. Now he claims to be a successful investor who *times the market!*.
                      Anyone who invests in the least successfully knows market timers can be liars, touts or fools.
                      What they cannot be is successful.

            3. Smart move = double 401K contribution

              The math says it is a certain bet after 12 years (assuming a portfolio of 40% to 60% equities).

              1. Irrelevant with regard to the crash; true always.

        3. “But, hey, if we can “save just one life.””

          LOL.

        4. Except that they’ve already overtly admitted that the standards are being loosened and they are going to start counting more deaths. There is no other reason for this except to inflate the numbers and keep the panic stoked.

        5. That is the BS rhetoric that DJT succumbed to.

    2. Their model has three phases. The upswing – the plateau – the downslope.

      The upswing clearly moved faster than they expected – but that doesn’t mean the same thing is going to happen with the next two phases. They actually predict almost no plateau at all. And yet reality bites.

      Here in CO, the peak was supposedly two days ago – with hospitalizations proj at 1174 – with 1103 proj for yesterday and 1085 for today. Yet it turns out that the current data (actually for yesterday data) is 1221 up from about 1166 on what was the projected peak day.

      All the errors made on the upside will tend to resolve in reducing death counts. All the errors on a ‘plateau’ will resolve in increasing death counts because the projected plateau is by construction in this case nothing at all. And it is near impossible for errors on downslope to result in anything but increasing the death counts as well.

      Even looking at the model changes from Apr 8 – two days ago – (60,145) to current – presumably yesterday data – (60,415). It’s probably not going to get back to the 81,000 projected before the first wave really started – but 60,145 is peak optimism. No doubt however that 60,145 will be repeated and repeated to reinforce optimism – until the actual number gets higher than that – in which event there will be a ‘these models all suck’ meme again.

      People have a weird idea that models are Nostradamus.

      1. Fuck off and stuff you PANIC flag up your ass, stick first.

      2. >>People have a weird idea that models are Nostradamus

        commented two weeks ago “it doesn’t look from this idiot’s eyes like it’s anywhere near as deadly as the experts say” and was pilloried about where my model was lol

      3. Was the upswing faster than expected, or did we not know when the virus first got here and used too late of a starting date? Garbage in, garbage out.

        If covid was here months before we thought, then 1000 the first few days in was really 1000 cases a few months in.

        1. Suffice to say JFree’s gonna grasp at any straw he can find to avoid admitting the chicken-little model was bunk, and he is full of shit.

        2. It wasn’t here months before we thought. It grew undiscovered (x WA) in Feb – but except for NO and NYC area – it grew all over the place in the erratic onesies and twosies that always characterizes the first month or so of exponential growth. Sure there are some deaths that were prob attributed to pneumonia that were actually covid19 but not many.

          The problem in Feb was not some huge iceberg of cases out there – but the total lack of contact tracing and testing. We had no idea where clusters might be (SKorea and Germany success – and even China) and no groundwork laid for isolating those onesies and twosies (Singapore and Taiwan success) to prevent community spread. So when we did start testing we were three weeks late – and those onesies and twosies everywhere turn into fivesies and tensies everywhere – and that’s when exponential growth overwhelms the capability of keeping things contained. So – overreaction is the only option if the goal is to protect fixed medical capacity and reduce fatalities.

          1. “…So – overreaction is the only option if the goal is to protect fixed medical capacity and reduce fatalities…”

            Yeah, and tossing everyone in jail to lower the crime rate is just fine with cowardly lefty assholes like you.
            Stuff your PANIC!!! flag up your ass, stick first.

          2. “It wasn’t here”

            There is no way you can know this and pretending like you do after shitting your pants for weeks and being wrong makes you look even more retarded.

          3. First of all, I still don’t know by what factor so far they’re overcounting Covid-19-caused deaths by:

            (1) misattributing cause of death in cases where Covid-19 was found,

            (2) diagnosing Covid-19 in cases of pneumonia caused by unidentified viral agents (what’s usually called simply “viral pneumonia), where Covid-19 was not found, and

            (3) diagnosing Covid-19 even in cases where not only was it not found, but the patients didn’t even have viral pneumonia.

            Second, I’m still not convinced the bat bite that supposedly introduced Covid-19 into the human population was a singular event. Why is it not likely this strain has circulated globally for some time and become an opportunist human pathogen elsewhere, going unnoticed until this event?

            Third, I’m not convinced Covid-19 deserves special attention out of all other human viral pneumonia agents just because we started tracking this one genetically.

            Fourth, even if the models were correct and this was expected to be a significant pandemic agent, I think flattening th curve was a lousy public health strategy, and that we’d’ve been better off spiking the curve, getting this thru the population as quickly as possible, especially via pre-adrenarche children, as with mumps. Only the debilitated should’ve been isolated, and spread thru the rest of the population should’ve been encouraged, as a better bet than counting on a vaccine’s coming soon.

            1. we’d’ve been better off spiking the curve, getting this thru the population as quickly as possible, especially via pre-adrenarche children, as with mumps. Only the debilitated should’ve been isolated,

              I’m going to guess you are old and on Social Security and Medicare. Presumably why you are perfectly OK forcing others to get sick and possibly die in order to keep on sucking at the tit a bit longer

              1. No one has to guess you’re a pathetic piece of cowardly shit who supported the market crash from day one, based purely on your fear of getting sick and your wild assertions.
                Fuck off and die.

              2. Oh, and:
                “…in order to keep on sucking at the tit a bit longer”

                To lefty scumbags like JFree, this means ‘making a living’, as opposed to cowering someplace in abject fear that you might get sick.
                Right, cowardly piece of shit?

                1. But JFree’s right, I’m 66 years old! However, I look at forcing everyone to be isolated for, like…ever…to be a far worse imposition on them just to reduce my chance of contracting a virus infection. If you looked at their models of how many they expected to get seriously ill, and how many excess patients could occupy the ICU at one time, the length of time that wait-your-turn-to-get-sick policy would take would require anywhere from half a year to several years of population-wide isolation.

                  1. If it took 10 years (the top figure I saw, but reasonable based on projections of the figures they were using at that time), imagine what a re-ordering of society that would require. Half a generation. Think of the careers people would be limited to. The only jobs that would require close interpersonal contact would be in health care. People would cut their own hair, and all clothes would be off the rack.

                    There would need to be more manufacturing facilities, because they would need to have reduced occupancy. There’d be some shift of the work force into agriculture and transport, because what else would they do? So there’d be some replacement of machinery by hand work, which would be cheaper as machinery became more scarce and labor more plentiful. And then what would the new farm and trucking workers do after the isolation finally ended, go back to school?

                    Brothers and sisters would marry and live in the same house they grew up in. Forget about romance, all marriages would be routine and of convenience, and there’d be a lot of threesomes.

                    There would actually be resistance to ending the isolation period, as people would have gotten used to living like that, and would appreciate that they weren’t catching colds and the flu as much. There might be less multiple sclerosis and other suspected viral diseases, let alone venereal diseases, hepatitis, etc. And there’d be no racial strife, as people would hardly deal with people of any description.

                  2. And I agree completely that the ‘everybody isolation forever’ is not a viable strategy to deal with the disease but more an exercise in how much power can be exercised by medical professionals and bureaucrats over everyone else.

                    But there are two very different issues right now. One is how we got to where we are. The other is where do we go from here.

                    The how we got here is IMO entirely a function of us delaying and ignoring things. A consequence of incompetence and complacency. Not a ‘plan’. Which is actually all kind of irrelevant – except that those who still believe it’s just the flu or prefer ignorance and complacency are clearly exactly the people who should be ignored/dismissed entirely (other than charging them thru the freaking nose for everything that this costs) for the ‘where do we go from here’.

                    I don’t really have too many ideas for how we get out of this other than doing what we should have done in the first place if we had chosen to be competent rather than incompetent. A massive public health rampup for the next few weeks so that we can actually leave lockdown without pretending that mere time solves much. Other than the early drive-thru testing copy of SKorea (which has kind of fizzled out in many places), I don’t see that we have learned much or done anything to actually get out of this current lockdown better prepared than we went into it. Which leaves me still pessimistic about the second/future waves. I expect we’ll find some treatment modalities that work to reduce fatality rates before possible vaccine but of course that doesn’t do any good once hospitals get full. IOW – it’s still entirely up to the damn doctors and other ‘experts’.

                    1. “I don’t really have too many ideas for how we get out of this other than doing what we should have done in the first place if we had chosen to be competent rather than incompetent.”

                      You haven’t had an idea since it started, other than whine that you might get sick, and therefore everyone else has to suffer.
                      Fuck off and die, you pathetic piece of shit.

              3. If the assumptions going into that model are correct (which I doubt), then I’m counting on the young to be colonized, probably few of them getting seriously sick, since the model assumes they’ll all be colonized sooner or later anyway. That’s what we did with other viruses that affect adults (statistically) worse than children. In the case of Covid-19, even better because young adults hardly ever get serious cases either.

                1. I doubt assumptions in that model are correct from the start. Never are. but I also doubt they are completely at odds with whatever the current state of knowledge pre-hindsight is.

                  The one big problem with simply assuming the young don’t get serious cases is that we have virtually zero data on anything other than ‘did they survive the first attack and get released from hospital’. Nothing about lung damage in the longer-term or future susceptibility to respiratory or other viral infections. Survival is certainly a better short-term outcome than death. But the future year outcomes are precisely the ones that mostly affect the young. This sort of research is exactly where I would prefer some sort of clinical expertise to get applied before we (meaning mostly us who are older and in power or with money) start making irreversible social decisions about others who will have to live with the consequences (and pay the costs too since this ain’t gonna be paid by taxpayers but by debt).

                  The one potentially interesting longer-term governance issue that this could induce is SOME sort of generational check on governance. Kind of a four-dimensional institutional checks-and-balances. This issue makes it one of health but the issue also obviously impacts debt, climate/environment, war/foreign policy, etc.

                  1. JFree
                    April.11.2020 at 1:33 pm
                    “I doubt assumptions in that model are correct from the start. Never are. but I also doubt they are completely at odds with whatever the current state of knowledge pre-hindsight is.”

                    Didn’t stop you from waving your PANIC!!! flag, you cowardly piece of shit.

        3. The upswing was faster because DeBlasio sat on his ass and did nothing. In a population as dense as NYC the contagion is extremely fast (bigger Ro) and the peak is very high eventually Gov. Cuomo acted. The result is a faster peaking than in CA which acted first on sequestration. But what about wave 2? no real plans have been revealed by anyone to the public.
          If anything, politicians just scream, “Massive testing” as if that is a cure.

      4. Oh JSlave, you pathetic lbig givernment cocksucking butt boy.. You were wrong. Own it bitch!

        1. People like JFree and Hihn (or Trump or Newsome for that matter) can’t admit they were wrong.

      5. Here in CO, the peak was supposedly two days ago – with hospitalizations proj at 1174 – with 1103 proj for yesterday and 1085 for today. Yet it turns out that the current data (actually for yesterday data) is 1221 up from about 1166 on what was the projected peak day.

        And just like that, we now have today’s data for CO – 1312 hospitalized. Hell of a peak if two days later we’re higher than the peak and a lot higher than where we’re supposed to be today (1085). And the total has changed from 60,145 to 61,545

        THIS is when ‘planning to the model’ proves the lazy way out. But…but…but it’s supposed to be going down. Why isn’t it going down? Because you clowns – the model doesn’t drive reality. Actions do! Now get off your fucking butts and stop hoping the model does the work for you.

        1. I’ll post this one more time for you, and maybe it will get through your thick fucking skull. Here is what IHME predicted for the day 5 April on hospital resource requirements, that morning:

          Projected beds needed: 4,507
          ICU beds needed: 863
          Invasive ventilators needed: 690
          Deaths: 193

          Here is the data from the State of Colorado for that same day:
          4,950 cases
          924 hospitalized
          140 deaths
          37 outbreaks at residential and non-hospital health care facilities (basically, nursing homes)

          Here’s their back-dated “projection” for 5 April, after they made their 11:50 pm update that night:

          Projected beds needed: 739
          ICU beds needed: 137
          Invasive ventilators needed: 116

          Here’s what they’re showing now, for 5 April:
          Projected beds needed: 1,138
          ICU beds needed: 198
          Invasive ventilators needed: 168

          These aren’t “projections”–5 April was 5 fucking days ago! We should already know what was actually required. “Projections” don’t apply anymore. But this shit is still being used to craft policy.

          Fuck anyone who says these shelter-in-place orders are necessary now. Fuck anyone who says social distancing is necessary now. Your models are trash, and anyone pimping them as valid needs to get necked.

          1. IHME changes their projections EVERY FUCKING DAY with new information. Obviously the number of deaths/etc (etc including hosp beds, ICU, etc) went DOWN. That’s why this article is being written about their numbers going down. DUH!

            What I am saying is that they have now gone down (maybe x some states which are still a long way from peak) as much as they are going to go down. We are now at plateau or peak (call it what you will). From here on the projected/actual numbers will tend to go UP from that recent number

            Errors on different sides of the curve tend to err in different directions. for reasons that I’m not going to bother to explain to you but which apply to every fucking data model on the planet.

            you are just one of those people who thinks a model is Nostradamus

            1. “…you are just one of those people who thinks a model is Nostradamus.”

              This from a pathetic piece of cowardly shit willing to consign millions of people to unemployment based on his fear of getting sick and his wild assertions.
              Fuck off and die.

            2. No,.they sure as fuck don’t change them every fucking day. The update write-ups are all on their website.

              The point, you dumb motherfucker, is that you don’t change your “projected” numbers on days that already happened. You leave your previous projections up and revise your projections going forward. You don’t change your “projections” to new “projections” and then hide what you previously predicted. Or do you consider a lack of transparency to be scientifically valid?

              I’m not the one who treats models as Nostradamus, you dizzy balloonhead. That would be you and the rest of the lockdown supporters who cited these doomsday numbers as justification to shut the economy down. I’m pointing out the model is shit because it already assumed social distancing was in place when they made their wild-ass prediction. Try to learn the fucking difference since you have plenty of time at home hiding from a cold bug.

              1. You’re asking an abject coward to get a spine implant; ain’t gonna happen.

              2. That would be you and the rest of the lockdown supporters who cited these doomsday numbers as justification to shut the economy down.

                The ONLY two things I have ‘supported’ are restoring the notion of a militia/citizen responsibility for this and actual public health measures. NEITHER of which have happened. Nor will. BOTH of which could have eliminated 90% of the problem – at well under 10% of the cost – had they been implemented in early Feb when I first started commenting on the virus.

                Everything I have said about lockdowns that you believe constitutes ‘support’ is merely about whether they work or not and what the goals of those (to preserve hospital capacity and therefore reduce fatalities) are. That’s it.

                YOU people are the ones who believe the world is divided into two groups:
                Those who believe this is the flu
                Those who believe this is a great excuse to institute commie fascist TDS lesbianism or somesuch

                1. Everything I have said about lockdowns that you believe constitutes ‘support’ is merely about whether they work or not

                  Hint: they don’t.

                  and what the goals of those (to preserve hospital capacity and therefore reduce fatalities) are. That’s it.

                  Bitch, every time there’s a major spike in deaths somewhere, you dance around it like some voodoo priest. Meanwhile, the Colorado Convention center is getting turned into a giant holding pen for COVID patients. Because lord knows, putting the flu-stricken in open-air wards 100 years ago was WILDLY successful in reducing deaths!

                  Well, the Dem governor of Kentucky IS threatening to quarantine people who go to church on Sunday. Nothing fascist about that, no sir!

                  Way to dodge the rest of it; you can take the L on the way out.

                2. “The ONLY two things I have ‘supported’ are restoring the notion of a militia/citizen responsibility for this and actual public health measures.”

                  What the fuck is a citizen militia going to do, and what the hell do you mean by public health measures?
                  Be specific

                  1. Citizen militia won’t be particularly effective without the earlier training in the sort of stuff that countries that still have that notion train in. eg – Singapore has their Disease Outbreak Response System (DORSCON). The people who actually trace contacts, administer the tests, construct isolation/quarantine facilities if needed (w the engineering/mtce parts of their system), communicate with the public about what is happening, distributed four masks to each household by Feb 1. Those were reservists from almost every neighborhood. Not full-time bureaucrats. Or highest possible price contractors who have to be hired in a rush when necessary. When Singapore raised their DORSCON levels, those folks knew what to do and where to go. It is why Singapore has had 559 imported covid cases – and only 1740 local cases that were traced down quickly. All of whom could be isolated and treated – with only 8 deaths – because they were able to trace those people down before they started infecting nursing homes and places with the non-mobile vulnerable. It is why they didn’t do much lockdown until last week despite having a very strong authoritarian streak there – because that wasn’t seen as necessary as long as the spread wasn’t overwhelming the reservist capacity. And that measure of capability also ends up getting more support for whatever they do end up having to do because it’s based on citizen capacity not Top Men decision-making.

                    Even without the emergency type of training however, they could still do stuff like construct/convert local facilities to deal with patient growth, locally produce the masks/PPE/etc for medical or bulk sanitizer for places like grocery checkouts, etc rather than wait until hell freezes over to globally source it, etc.

                    1. You should probably get on organizing that.
                      No better opportunity than now

                3. JFree
                  April.10.2020 at 11:32 pm
                  “…The ONLY two things I have ‘supported’ are restoring the notion of a militia/citizen responsibility for this and actual public health measures…”

                  You, you pathetic cowardly piece of shit, are yet once more lying.
                  Do you think the rest of us haven’t read your OH, JEEZUS, I MIGHT GET SICK!!! whines over the past several weeks?
                  Do you think you lame apologies might now make someone think you are other than a pathetic cowardly piece of shit who is more than willing to turn over control of your life (and everyone elses’) because you are terrified if getting sick?
                  Do you somehow think your assholic, pathetic, scummy, lefty, cowardly rep might be salvaged by your claims that it really was that bad, after most everyone here pointed out that you are full of shit?
                  How do you look in a mirror without barfing in the sink?

                  1. Do you think the rest of us haven’t read your OH, JEEZUS, I MIGHT GET SICK!!! whines over the past several weeks?

                    Hell I’d love to read one of those. Cite – or STFU

                    1. “Hell I’d love to read one of those. Cite – or STFU”

                      Read anything you’re posted for the last several weeks, you cowardly piece of shit.

        2. Another day post-peak here in CO – and we are now at 1376 hospitalized.

          But but but but it’s supposed to be going down now! Why isn’t it going down?

      6. All I know is that the incidence data at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html#epi-curve keep making me wrong because I fucked up: I trusted them. First they changed the measuring stick by including estimated onset dates instead of only known ones. Then they keep going and adding to the numbers preceding the lookback window where they say the data are incomplete, implying that the data for earlier dates are complete. Now the dips in the curve reveal pretty obvious weekend artifacts.

        I mean, it still looks like it plateaued, but it keeps getting harder to say.

        I haven’t checked my e-mail today to see if the webmaster found out what happened to the posting from my Robert account, but as long as this one works, who cares?

        1. I think we are in the rough range of a plateau. But it will be a plateau – not a one-day peak and a nice ski run downhill from there.

          A lot of the shut-downs are now going on two weeks. Others have already started even though they didn’t need to happen for a couple weeks if the goal was to max out capacity. That does start turning things down

          Once testing caught up with the backlog in states, testing itself has plateaued. Up to a couple weeks now. States didn’t expand their contact tracing or other stuff to actively find positives/symptomatics and isolate them and really reduce the unknown spread. Technically that’s not good. You want to find ALL the positives – today if possible – not be scared about what you might find because growth doesn’t look good. But a test plateau gives the appearance of ‘slower growth’ in the number of positives/cases. What it really does though is create a lag where ‘unexpected’ cases will keep popping up and make for a forever downslope.

          1. JFree
            April.10.2020 at 11:16 pm
            “I think we are in the rough range of a plateau. But it will be a plateau – not a one-day peak and a nice ski run downhill from there…”
            You don’t think, your PANIC, you piece of shit.

    3. What should we do with such information?

      Fag drag TDS sufferers.

  4. Have any of the predictions politicians acted on been correct?

    1. These are credentialed experts with objective mathematical models. Shut up, submit, and obey peon.

    2. They predicted that most people would meekly do as they are told.

      1. They were correct.

        1. The rest will be quarantined.

  5. I thought Dr. Birx said 200,000 dead was a best-case scenario, that even if we did everything perfectly, we were still looking at 200,000 bodies.

    Were we really better than perfect?

    1. We owe Trump our very lives.

      Nah, if you died, Trump murdered you. If you lived, Socialism saved you.

      1. If you lived, you’re not doing socialism right.

    2. We’re gonna need a bigger Memory Hole.

    3. scarves save.

      1. Not if you’re around rotating machinery.

        1. this is gonna get worse before it gets better

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi6iOFHLTdw

          1. There’s nothing that The Simpsons hasn’t covered.

            1. 99% of my mental reference library idk if that’s good or bad

              1. Yes you do

                1. yeah around here. truth.

            2. I keep thinking of this whole lockdown shit using the scene where Lisa sells Homer the tiger repelling rock. Lisa is the government, lockdowns are the rock, Homer is the gullible public. “You don’t see any tigers/coronavirus around here, do you?”

              1. 10000000%

  6. “…What should we do with such information?…”

    Quit panicking and let businesses re-open. NOW!

  7. One of the most striking developments over the past two weeks is how quickly the estimates of death and hospitalizations from COVID-19 are being reduced.

    It’s only striking if you’ve never seen a government deliberately induce mass hysteria before.

    1. Indeed. It was obvious fairly early on that there was no way the models could be right. It’s just not that deadly.

      Notice that nowhere in the COVID coverage were they showing the dead being carried off ships and out of high rise buildings. That was the tell with a sensationalist media. Were there bodies? Yes. Were they masses of dead the like we’ve never seen? Nope.

      As always, individuals are fairly intelligent but groups are abjectly retarded.

      1. We knew very early on from real life experience on a cruise ship that most people exposed would not contract the disease, that those that did would suffer mild or no symptoms, that the at risk population was old sick people, and that the death rate looks a lot like a bad flu season. It would have cost a fraction of the money and misery to aggressively urge the “social distancing” of the at risk population and leave the rest of us alone.

        1. That cruise ship case was the case that convinced me the panic was overwrought. I already suspected as much, but if everyone didn’t die after being on board a ship together for a few weeks you’d think people would notice it’s not the supervirus they’re looking for.

          Unfortunately, panic isn’t rational so it’s hard to expect rational responses to a panic.

          One little thing you could do is not stoke the panic, but in an election year that might have grave consequences. Not to say the response was purely political, but if you’re looking to hammer the Trump administration what could be better than an emergency that you can inflate the worst-case scenarios? For that, I think we can safely blame media companies for a whole host of reasons.

          I notice that if the government want’s an economic downturn, they’ll find an excuse to create one. If possible, they’ll do their best to make it worse too.

          1. “…Unfortunately, panic isn’t rational so it’s hard to expect rational responses to a panic…”

            Particularly when it serves the self-interest of the media and the TDS-infected politicos.

  8. I don’t think it is quite time to bust out the champagne and declare victory. Not yet.

    Regarding modeling in general. A model is a linear projection of a non-linear world. A model is only as good as the assumptions that are built into it. People looking for precision in a model will always be disappointed because none (precision) really exists. Wall Street hires the absolute best modelers that money can buy. Guess what? These rocket scientists cannot even guess the direction that interest rates will move correctly more than chance, and rarely if ever get the number right. You think biological systems are any different?

    The Wuhan coronavirus is completely new. We have zero experience with it. None. In the absence of data, what should a policymaker actually do? It is a Hobbesian choice. The jury is still out with this thing.

    1. Maybe not, but it was a very good time to consider the effects on the economy BEFORE shutting it down.

      1. Sevo, I do not disagree with you. I am 1000% certain POTUS Trump thought long and hard about the economic consequences. The Donald? C’mon man, you know he is all about the economy.

        One thing I will point out about the IHME model. There is huge uncertainty to the upside, and more certainty projecting the floor. I thought that was odd enough to pass along – we are not yet out of the woods.

        1. “Sevo, I do not disagree with you. I am 1000% certain POTUS Trump thought long and hard about the economic consequences. The Donald? C’mon man, you know he is all about the economy.”

          Trump did not shut down the economy; your TDS is showing.
          Try Newsom, Cuomo, et al.

          1. The VIRUS shut down the economy. All those TP hoarders in Feb acted long before govt. They were not hoarding TP in order to go out dancing and carousing. And that number of people also grows exponentially with the virus – assuming the shelves don’t empty of TP. If ‘the market’ was clueless in Feb, it was if anything because the govt FAILED to even test anybody for nearly three weeks. Ignorance is bliss when money from the Fed is free

            Govt only provided the timing for that mass vomiting of marginal employees. Those jobs were gonna disappear with either the decline in business or the increase in costs of employees getting sick. If you can’t see that – well that’s why you lose money in the market and I don’t.

            1. JFree
              April.10.2020 at 3:02 pm
              “The VIRUS shut down the economy….”

              No, you cowardly piece of shit, the government, listening to cowardly pieces of shit like you, did so.
              And you have continued to brag about it even up until now.
              Stuff your PANIC!!! flag up your ass, stick first.

              1. In fairness, even though I disagree with JFree on this, the virus itself would have in effect shut down some of the economy via market forces and general public anxiety.

                The government, in it’s infinite wisdom, shut down more of the economy than the virus did. And that’s mostly on the state legislatures from what I can tell.

                1. I think that’s true. But the TP hoarders were reacting to hysterical claims made in the media that wildly exaggerated the risks of this virus.

                  1. I cannot fathom why people decided to hoard toilet paper in particular. I mean, I can think of reasons but they all seem spurious at best. Like, do you need tons of toilet paper for a long-haul stay at home when you absolutely still need to go grocery shopping?

                    Even if you did curbside or delivery, someone else is still handling your food even if you don’t see them doing so. It’s baffling.

                    1. “I cannot fathom why people decided to hoard toilet paper in particular”

                      Because someone put out a story about a run on toilet paper, created the idea that people would hoard toilet paper, and influenced a bunch of people to make a run on and hoard toilet paper.
                      Self fulfilling prophecy.
                      “If you build it, they will come”

                    2. I’ve yet to hear a plausible theory.

                    3. Theory 1: When the bug hit, Australia bought a bunch of TP because they get theirs from China. (That makes sense) There were reports of shortages there. It’s easy to imagine that leading to reports HERE and the ensuing panic buying.

                      Theory 2: TP is big and bulky and you can’t really carry that much relative to your space. (meaning you won’t have a ton “in the back” – it takes up a lot of space and TP has a pretty well consistent sell rate) When people started panic buying, TP was one of the first things that ran out. That led to stories about TP shortages, which caused the feedback loop. It wasn’t TOTAL TP that was short, it was just the shelf space needed to stock the amount being sold.

                    4. Because of an old meme created by a writer for Johnny Carson, based on exaggeration of a news story from somewhere in particular where local conditions had caused a run on toilet paper.

                      I’m picturing people dancing and carousing with toilet paper.

                    5. Well considering the number of commenters here who stick their head up their ass, maybe there’s a lot of Americans who wanted to protect themselves from a respiratory virus while sticking their heads up their ass.

                    6. JFree
                      April.10.2020 at 9:13 pm
                      “Well considering the number of commenters here who stick their head up their ass,…”

                      Stick your PANIC!!! flag up there, so your head has some company.

                2. “…In fairness, even though I disagree with JFree on this, the virus itself would have in effect shut down some of the economy via market forces and general public anxiety…”

                  No doubt. People reacted in both appropriate and exaggerated ways, and would have distorted the economy to some degree.
                  But the government actions precluded early self-corrections and further, lent weight to the chicken littles.
                  So I’ll stand by my statement that the government *shut down* the economy.

                  1. Media created the necessary conditioning, as is their role

            2. Fuck you JSlave, you propanda-spewing sack of shit.

            3. Hahahahahahahahaha. No.

          2. Why no, the state governors decide what happens in their states. We agree on this.

    2. The policymakers should have admitted all of the facts you identified in your post, and taken a sensible, middle of the road approach rather than pressing forward with the presumption, however obliquely stated, that millions would die, if not tens of millions. By the time our various governors completely shuttered their states, we already knew that the CFR was low enough, and those likely to be severely affected few enough in number, that kneecapping the economy was not necessary. We could have shielded the vulnerable without costing millions of jobs and inflicting trillions of dollars in economic devastation.

      But, it is an election year and everyone was just itching to get an advantage over their rivals with accusations that so-and-so underreacted and thereby “literally” killed everyone’s grandparents, without any regard to the reality of the situation. And, in a bid to avoid being labelled a mass murderer, or a panicked ignoramus, we plummeted head first into senseless inertia that led us into a pointless state of lockdown.

      1. It’s worth remembering that all of this hysteria began when the senate acquitted Trump in the impeachment trial. His numbers were rising, the economy was booming, the Democrats had a pathetic group of candidates, the IG had confirmed that everything Nunes told us a year ago about the Paige investigation was true and the media was desperate for some way to stop Orange man. Reason has a story pretty much every day detailing all the ways Trump under reacted to this pretty inconsequential virus and they’re far from the worst. Now a few “libertarians” have seen the light and decided that maybe a police state wasn’t such a great idea after all. And now that the Top Men have lowered the morbidity projections they can pretend that they aren’t responsible for this bullshit. Too fucking little. Too fucking late.

        1. Funny how that happens…

    3. re: a model is only as good as the assumptions built into it. True

      re: a model is a linear projection of a non-linear world. False. Or at least, false if you’re using even halfway competent models. If you’re using a linear model, that’s a good clue that it’s probably incompetent.
      That said, it is true that models are always simplifications of the real world. And the implications of those simplifications are both important and usually unknown.

      re: the Wuhan virus is completely new. False. We have lots of experience with coronaviruses and with diseases in general. While this particular variant is new, we know for a rock-solid fact that it will progress through the population following a logistics curve (and more specifically, a Gompertz curve) and not either a linear or exponential curve.

      re: the analogy to financial market modeling. Yes, I think biological systems are completely different. For one thing, the results of the financial models drive decisions which change the behavior of the market. It creates an NP-recursive loop that renders the problem unsolvable. No such recursion exists in disease modeling.

      re: in the absence of data… There are entire disciplines on the subject of ‘decision-making under conditions of uncertainty’. The one thing those disciplines make clear is that the Precautionary Principle (which is what you are advocating without saying so) is a fallacious approach that overweights risks and ignores (or radically underweights) opportunity costs.

      1. What do you mean NP-recursive? I know what the complexity class NP is, and what recursion is, but I’m not sure what the combination means.

        Otherwise, agree.

      2. //re: in the absence of data… There are entire disciplines on the subject of ‘decision-making under conditions of uncertainty’. The one thing those disciplines make clear is that the Precautionary Principle (which is what you are advocating without saying so) is a fallacious approach that overweights risks and ignores (or radically underweights) opportunity costs.//

        Amen.

        1. But the entire concept of the nanny state is based on that.

      3. You said it so better than I, Rossami = That said, it is true that models are always simplifications of the real world. And the implications of those simplifications are both important and usually unknown. I like the way you said it better.

        No, I think I’ll stay with, “The Wuhan coronavirus is completely new. We have zero experience with it. None.” because it is objectively true.

        1. because it is objectively true.
          And objectively irrelevant.

        2. It’s completely new just like how the flu you deal with every year is completely new. Turns out, viruses and other diseases evolve pretty quickly.

        3. “No, I think I’ll stay with, “The Wuhan coronavirus is completely new. We have zero experience with it. None.” because it is objectively true.”

          April 10, 2020 is completely new. We have zero experience with it. None.
          Is also objectively true, so low watt bulbs like you should PANIC!!!! every goddam morning.
          Fuck off, you cowardly piece of shit.

        4. Retard.

    4. “I don’t think it is quite time to bust out the champagne and declare victory. Not yet.”

      No one cares pant shitter.

    5. “A model is a linear projection of a non-linear world. A model is only as good as the assumptions that are built into it.”

      Sometimes but often models are non-linear. An models are AT BEST
      as good as the input assumptions. They are often much worse.

  9. This can’t be correct. If there are so relatively few deaths, the million deaths Progressives have been blaming on Trump won’t come true.

    1. That’s fine. They’ve already pivoted. Trump lied about millions of people dying in order to make himself look like a hero when it inevitably turned that the dead numbered somewhere between an average and bad flu season.

      There were always two choice for progressives, regardless of what Trump did. Either Trump did not to do enough, and thereby caused the deaths of millions, or Trump created a fake emergency in order to fluff his own ego. Of course, it is likely that the progressive scolds will simply believe both, at the same time.

      Trump killed thousands, to pretend he saved millions.

      1. I’m not sure if that’s true. The news I’m getting from my bluer-than-blue-found-in-nature-blue media is that the local bluer-than-blue-found-in-nature-blue government is cracking down even harder, while Trump is signaling that he wants to open things soon…

        In Seattle’s most recent effort to keep people from crowding together and potentially spreading the new coronavirus, officials announced Thursday that more than a dozen of its largest and most popular parks will be closed this weekend. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Thursday that he hopes to reopen much of the country “very, very, very, very soon,” raising concerns among medical experts and economists of a possible COVID-19 resurgence if Americans return to their normal lives before the virus is truly stamped out.

        1. virus is truly stamped out.

          Which they always said was never the goal for this. I thought we were supposed to “flatten the curve,” not achieve the impossible and eradicate the virus.

          1. It has been a subtle shift. From minimizing deaths, to eliminating all deaths, because minimizing deaths is possible and therefore the totalitarian encroachments have to stop; whereas eliminating all deaths, and the virus, is impossible and, therefore, the totalitarian policies must continue into perpetuity.

            1. +10000000

          1. Trump stated very early on that he thought total deaths would be a fraction of 1%. I thought then and I think now he was correct.

      2. That is just insane – Trump lied about millions of people dying in order to make himself look like a hero when it inevitably turned that the dead numbered somewhere between an average and bad flu season – if anyone actually believed that.

  10. It’s over. The entire narrative of COVID-19 as the black plague of the 21st century has collapsed. To those of you still here beating the drums of panic, go ahead and turn off the lights when you leave, please.

    1. “Its over” He fixed her cable?

  11. For the people who shout “science” all the time, how are you going to determine whether the lockdowns were helpful? Simply saying “well, it wasn’t as bad as we thought so it worked” is obviously not sound.

    1. “For the people who shout “science” all the time, how are you going to determine whether the lockdowns were helpful? Simply saying “well, it wasn’t as bad as we thought so it worked” is obviously not sound.”

      Pretty sure someone will be able to do a NY/Chicago comparison, and I’ll bet the lockdown rate isn’t nearly as variable as the Covid numbers.

    2. It seems like we might have an opportunity to study the results within the homeless populations. They are by definition, the least locked down population segment, the most un-hygenic, and presumably have a high degree of co-morbidities.

      1. I don’t know how they would even study any deaths among the homeless. I guess, by dissecting their corpses?

        1. The homeless have more to worry about from simple exposure and/or dirty needles than they do from a Chinese cold.

          For one thing, no one gets within six feet of a homeless person if they can possibly help it. Who’s going to infect them? (/sarc)

  12. Just think how much worse it would have gotten without shelter-in-place.

    1. Keep that self-justifying fantasy going, chicken little!

      1. Germ theory has been accepted for a few hundred years now, Sevo. Yes, people staying at home has almost certainly slowed the spread of this and many other viral illnesses. You can acknowledge the reality of viral infections without agreeing to government measures or experts’ predictions.

        Anyone with toddlers who normally attend daycare will attest to this.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ_theory_of_disease

        1. “Germ theory has been accepted for a few hundred years now, Sevo.”

          Asshole chicken-littles predate that discovery by thousands of years, chicken little.

          1. Is this an act, or are you really like this?

            1. De Oppresso Liber
              April.10.2020 at 3:08 pm
              “Is this an act, or are you really like this?”

              Are you really this stupid?

            2. No act he’s definitely mocking your cowardice

              1. “Real men don’t use colanders! Use your bare hands and grab those spaghetti out of the boiling water one by one!”

                Germs are real, idiots. Wash your hands and don’t take the subway during a pandemic.

                Also, there isn’t a global conspiracy to keep everyone at home. This is just the solution that every county, whether they want to or not keeps arriving at. Even Russia is admitting now that they will need to take action. And Putin (your hero) himself is awol, self-isolated at a country manor. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/world/europe/coronavirus-russia-moscow-putin.html

                1. “Just follow the herd into that building nobody ever seems to come out of”

                2. You seem to be under the mistaken assumption that you are the only one who knows what germs are.
                  You’re not. We all do.
                  But unlike you, most of us understand that there are trade-offs in most any decision, and the decision to crash the economy over what seems to be a case of the flu will go down in history as one of the most misguided power grabs ever.
                  In short, most of us here are not one-dimentional thinkers, nor cowards.

        2. People have been “social distancing” during flu season for a few hundred years with no government intervention required. If somebody invites you over and you’ve got the flu you send regrets. This is not some new behavior invented by some asshole on twitter. What is new is destroying the economy and unleashing a police state to enforce ordinary common sense.

    2. 1% worse.

    3. “Just think”?

      What you are really saying is “Just imagine.”

      1. Imagine there’s no COVID
        It’s easy if you try…

    4. We actually have data on that very point. Sweden, which did not issue severe lockdown orders, is following exactly the same trend of deaths per capita as the US and UK which did. Similarly, states that issued strong lockdowns are performing essentially the same as states that did not.

      Granted, there are confounding issues to the simple analysis. In addition to different lockdown rules, each jurisdiction has different population density, age distributions, cultural attributes that affect susceptibility, compliance rates, etc. But so far, the general data suggests that it would not have been significantly worse without the shelter-in-place orders.

      1. Sweden, which did not issue severe lockdown orders, is following exactly the same trend of deaths per capita as the US and UK which did.

        That’s actually quite unknown unless you link me to a Swedish language source.

        Sweden made the decision in early March to only test hospitalized in pre-defined risk groups (most likely the older with the known co-morbidities) and medical staff with symptoms. They are building field hospitals – apparently for people with similar symptoms – and I assume they will treat them AS IF they have covid19. And will presumably test on the QT. But they are not going to publish any data related to that.

        Whatever the internal reaction – and economic consequences – it will be in the Swedish language and will center around the persons of Anders Tegnell and Stefan Löfven

        1. You were wrong and now you’re desperate not to eat an L

        2. Per your request, straight from the Folkhälsomyndigheten (the public health agency of Sweden – the Swedish equivalent of the US CDC) – https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/

          I assume since you asked for a Swedish language source that you can read it? Without Google Translate, that is? If so, note for example, their rules for restaurants. No universal closures, just recommendations against buffet lines and minimizing crowds at bars.

          Re: the death trends, the point is to compare Swedish death trends to other jurisdictions. You should not be using merely a swedish-language source for that. You want a source with a common definition so the jurisdictions can be compared. The Worldometers data is my preferred source.

          1. Actually I’m part Swedish and can pick out some words. But no – I will use google translate. I want a Swedish source because it is going to be intended for a Swedish audience. Stories told about Sweden for a foreign audience are going to be selling their own agendas. And thank you.

            And no -worldmeters or JHU or somesuch do NOT have ‘common’ definitions. They use whatever definitions the government of that country uses (or pick from among those defs if the govt produces multiple data snippets). As I said – Sweden has their own definition and it is far more limited (by design – other govts are I’m sure just not testing much) than any other

          2. He won’t use that. It’s all panic all the time.

          3. Re: the death trends, the point is to compare Swedish death trends to other jurisdictions.

            All the death trends look the same on the upswing side except for the Asian countries that did a phenomenal job early.

            The Swedish strategy is to have that trend continue higher AFTER other places level off. In the hope that those increased deaths in the near-term are more than offset by the increase in milder cases with recoveries so they get much closer to herd immunity much faster than anywhere else.

            The other reason for Swedish language sources is that any debate about the economic impact and/or medical capacity will occur inside Sweden. eg – one useful bit of info re their strategy from that link you provided. They expect outbreaks in clusters – not general. And they expect the ‘attack rate’ (% of population infected in this wave) to be 1% of the population. That 1% has nothing to do with the virus then deciding to go off and pine for the fjords in Norway. It has to do with Sweden at that point deciding to do the whole lockdown thing and hoping it doesn’t get to that point this wave. THAT is precisely what is not being said outside Sweden where this is being sold as some permanent strategy.

            1. “…It has to do with Sweden at that point deciding to do the whole lockdown thing and hoping it doesn’t get to that point this wave. THAT is precisely what is not being said outside Sweden where this is being sold as some permanent strategy…”

              IOWs, it has to do with the Swedes dealing with real data and not wild assertions from some SCREAMING PANIC COWARDS like you?
              And you, still hoping millions die, are whining that there might, maybe, perhaps be ‘another wave’?
              I have a question:
              How do you look in a mirror in the morning without despising the cowardly, lying piece of shit looking back at you?

              1. it has to do with the Swedes dealing with real data and not wild assertions from some SCREAMING PANIC COWARDS

                Are you calling Trump a screaming panic coward?

                1. No, you cowardly piece of shit, I’m pointing out that YOU are a cowardly piece of shit.

  13. Huh, my comment is being moderated…because I included two links?

    1. Here it is without the links:

      I tried looking at the IMHE website to see if they had some sort of FAQ explaining why the projections are trending downward. I didn’t easily find anything but I did see this

      “As summarized in the table below, these updates result in substantial changes to the mean COVID-19 death predictions. Their uncertainty intervals – values reported in parentheses – do overlap, reflecting the inherent uncertainty of generating projections and especially on the basis of rapidly changing data landscapes.”

      This was specifically in relation to UK projections. But if you look at the plots for the US where the shaded regions indicate the uncertainty (95% CI? Not exactly clear) it seems like the same might hold for the US.

      It would be nice to see a summary of whether the actual number of deaths is staying within the uncertainty of earlier models. If the answer is yes, then I don’t know if it is fair to say that the early models were wrong. But modelers and policy makers have a responsibility to communicate and make decisions based on the uncertainty!!!

      1. If you predict between 10 and 10 million deaths, taking credit for reality falling somewhere in the middle, and pretending that people aren’t only hearing 10 million, is disingenuous and obtuse.

        1. “Dishonest” will do just fine.

        2. For the UK at least, the ratio of max to min number of deaths seems to be 1.5 — 2.5. If you look at the current long-term projection for the US its something like 6. So the predictions span less than an order of magnitude, not six orders of magnitude (10 — 10M).

          I agree that modelers should know that people are going to focus on the high end and they should be really, really, really careful to emphasize how much we don’t know. But there is only so much you can do. Politicians and bureaucrats deserve a lot of blame (though I also understand that they have a very strong incentive to react to the worst-case scenario to cover their own asses).

          1. If you had to commit your own money on a prediction that vague – only by 6 – you wouldn’t. Only a government and state university are comfortable doing that.
            Maybe because it isn’t their money.

          2. Taking the prominent models into consideration, we had a swing from at least 2,000,000 million deaths (Ferguson) to less than 60,000 deaths (IMHE). That is two orders of magnitude. That is a colossal spread, even more so if you consider that the upper limit was presented as a conservative estimate.

            We’re at approximately 18,000 deaths now, and that includes the fudging of the numbers and resolving all doubts in favor of a death being “caused” by COVID-19. I’d like to see a serious accounting of comorbidities and the presence of other pathogens. I’d wager the actual number of deaths actually caused by COVID-19 is probably half of what is being reported.

            1. OK, that’s a good point. If you are comparing different groups or numbers that were tossed out in the media, then the spread is much larger.

              I can’t remember, though — was that Ferguson prediction (unrealistically) assuming no “social distancing” (another phrase I have come to loathe)? I seem to remember that it was but I could be wrong.

              1. “was that Ferguson prediction ”

                OMFG YOU WERE WRONG

                internalize it and move on godammit you people

                1. It was a yes or no question, actually.

                  And what was I wrong about? Because I don’t recall making a prediction.

                  I’m trying to have a good-faith, good-natured conversation. Please try to do the same.

                  1. That model assumed literally nobody did anything at all to slow the spread of the virus. Yet, people were ALREADY doing things to slow the spread of the virus. That model was NEVER EVER EVER going to come true.

              2. That Ferguson prediction was the worst case scenario. No ‘social distancing’ and delayed or even no implementation of anything until the epidemic has already outrun medical/treatment capacity. Modelling wise that’s an easy scenario to run – just keep running the growth rate higher until herd immunity lowers it and turns it over.

                On the bright side – it’s usually a 2-3 month upslope before the virus simply runs out of people – either locally or globally. On the not-so-bright side, it’s a bodies in the streets Third World scenario. And the reason it is run is because in the Third World, it’s not that worst-case. It is actually the ‘natural’ course of events absent modern medicine and/or public knowledge of what is happening.

    2. “…because I included two links?”

      Yes, and there is no moderator; you might just as well wait for Godot.

    3. Two link generally kills the comment. One link is usually fine. Pain in the ass. And their policy has totally cut down on all the spam…

      1. Thanks for the article with much information fun happy time girl make sex on you http://www.spam.com

        1. I almost flagged that out of habit.

          I’m kind of surprised they’ve kept the comments section open this long.

          1. I’ll tell you what: the ad agencies and megacorps are really loving this “together apart” lockdown.
            Lots of opportunity for new, virtue signaling ads…

  14. Good News: Coronavirus Death Estimates Keep Shrinking

    Wow what a shocker

    What should we do with such information?

    Tell experts and Top Men to fuck off next time. The only expertise we need is the one in the lab, not some doofus in a suit.

  15. Just like economic models based on bad theory and suppositions, the Washington predictions are proven false. Just like Ivy League economists, the good doctors will come out of this with enhanced reputations, providing the explanation why their advice was correct all along, but slightly off because of unpredictable noise in the data or something equally high-brow.

      1. And governemnt spending

  16. Headline seems to be off. Shouldn’t there be a “In Spite of Trump” in there somewhere?

    1. Actually it’s all Trump’s fault.

  17. There’s no question that the estimated fatality rate and need for hospital beds are coming down partly because of social distancing and other changes in behavior.

    Is that true? My understanding is social distancing is supposed to “flatten the curve” to avoid excessive pressure on the healthcare system at any one time. Shouldn’t the area under the flattened and un-flattened curves, total infections and total deaths, still be the same? The same number of people would be infected but in the former scenario, this number is just spread out over a greater period of time. I am not aware of any theory that flattening the curve changes the Case Fatality Rate or reduces the total number of people infected, so why are the predicted deaths falling so dramatically?

    But hey, at least unemployment claim are now horizontal. We have two straight weeks of 6.5 million new unemployment claims. Sure that is 20 times higher than ever in American history but the curve is flattened. Just like the economy.

    1. why are the predicted deaths falling so dramatically?
      Something something limited sample something only confirmed cases something. Some people had no idea they were sick.

      Probably a large amount of the population has now encountered this disease, and hopefully most people have it so the chicken littles can shut the fuck up.

      1. ‘Something PANIC!!! something PANIC!!! limited sample something PANIC!!! only confirmed cases something PANIC!!!.’
        Never let a crisis go to waste.

    2. Your understanding is correct. “Flattening the curve” does not change the area under the curve for highly infectious diseases. Except in extreme cases (which are not applicable here), social distancing slows the spread of disease but does not reduce the total sick or dead.

    3. You are correct. The fatality rate is changing not because of “flattening the curve” but because they are testing more and more people and finding that less and less are dying, statistically speaking. I think it is due time to stop calling it the “deadly” coronavirus as it does not appear to be significantly more fatal than anything else in our seasonal rotation.

      //But hey, at least unemployment claim are now horizontal. We have two straight weeks of 6.5 million new unemployment claims. Sure that is 20 times higher than ever in American history but the curve is flattened. Just like the economy.//

      This was, I think, the point. I have a very hard time believing any of this was inadvertent. If the coronavirus outbreak was last year, or next year, none of this shit would have happened. That’s just my opinion but I think this bullshit spiraled out of control because it happened to coincide with an election year.

      1. I believe it IS more dangerous than “other things in our seasonal rotation” as a fair amount of evidence shows. The question is, “to whom”. I believe that the evidence has shown that this was particularly dangerous to older people with co-morbidities (there are still questions about how deadly it is to people with well-managed comorbidities vs those that aren’t). But that’s why I believed from the beginning that a more targeted approach might have been taken. The short version of that targeted approach is simply: protect the most vulnerable. What that looks like in practice is probably somewhat complex.

        The ham-fisted approach seems to be doing more damage than helping, and I also agree that it has passed the point of… shall we say, “prudent overcaution” to “We’ve chosen this course, now we’re sticking with it good and hard no matter what.”

        During this whole situation and debate, I’ve tried mightily to not make this about Trump or various political sides because I don’t feel it’s helpful. I’m only interested in the truth– and I generally don’t believe claims on either end of the spectrum: It’s the black plague of the 21st century! And “it’s just a cold.” And for the further record, I don’t believe it’s “somewhere in the middle” either, because that’s pretty dramatic. Somewhere between “it’s gonna kill 1/3rd of the world’s population” and “It’s the sniffles” is massive. I believe it’s far closer to “it’s just a cold” on that rather wide spectrum.

        1. “I believe’

          Yes we’ve seen you shitting your pants over it

          1. When middle school opens back up we hope to flatten the curve on your commenting.

        2. Excellent points. It would seem that this coronavirus is less of an equal opportunity killer than the flu, which seems to kill a much broader demographic. But, among the vulnerable, it seems to be somewhat more fatal. Is it a wash, then? Too early to tell.

          Flu season typically lasts from October to March. Can we be certain that those dying of the coronavirus did not also have flu or some other strain of rhinovirus, or another coronavirus? Would the people dying now have outlived this flu season in the absence of the coronavirus? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know, and nobody really seems to be asking that question – and, from an epidemiological standpoint, that seems like a very important question.

          Are people admitted for coronavirus symptoms even being tested for flu? If not, how come? Seems like we are in a bizarre focus on exacerbating the body count any way we can rather than trying to determine what is really killing people.

          1. My cousin, for example, is a healthcare worker. She was diagnosed with COVID-19, but in a very roundabout way.

            First, she reported her symptoms and it was believed she came into contact with an infected patient. They tested her for COVID-19 and she came up negative (despite being symptomatic). She was not tested for flu. Then, when her symptoms worsened, she had a chest x-ray performed and was diagnosed with mild pneumonia. They did not retest her and simply concluded, based on the symptoms, that it was COVID-19. She was placed on quarantine. Then, about a week later, she was tested again because started developing what she perceived to have been an usually case of the chills. They ran more comprehensive test and she tested positive for COVID-19 *and* influenza.

            She’s fine now, and got through both without any issues, but the point is that nobody even bothered initially to test her for flu. At first, the doctors simply assumed it was COVID-19, and then, only later discovered she also had the flu, which may have contributed to her symptoms.

            I don’t have the numbers, but I do not think this is an uncommon scenario. How many thousands of people have died “of COVID-19” that were also infected with flu? And, if those people die from a viral induced pneumonia, how can they possibly determine what caused it?

            1. We may never know that answer, Geraje = How many thousands of people have died “of COVID-19” that were also infected with flu?

              It is a good question.

              1. Mentioned earlier today that if you look at the CDC’s website on flu for this year, this has been the second-highest season in the last eleven years, behind the really bad 17-18 season. That’s why JFree’s blithe assertion that there were no cases before now amounts to question-begging. We’ll never know for sure because of the lack of overall serology testing, but there’s a very real possibility that the “flu” season was the first spike back in November, and this was the second spike. The second spike during the Spanish flu period was the really bad one as well.

                We’ll know for sure once the fall rolls around and the next spike kicks in, but I doubt there will be an appetite to shut everything down again like before. Not right before the holidays, and certainly not after 60 million jobs were lost this time around.

                1. “…but I doubt there will be an appetite to shut everything down again like before…”

                  There’ll be plenty of appetite among those like Newsom; the question is whether the population tells them to stuff it after dealing with the economic results of this manufactured “crisis”.

                2. No, we’ll have the data Red. The CDC still did flu surveillance testing in Q1 2020. The samples have not been processed, for the most part. Understandable, right? They have been processing KungFlu samples like crazy. We’ll get a retrospective look soon enough.

                  Perhaps by the holidays, we will have a therapeutic treatment course that works overwhelmingly. And we won’t have to do this again. One thing is for sure, states won’t push off disaster preparedness spending for a while.

                  1. “…One thing is for sure, states won’t push off disaster preparedness spending for a while…”

                    Ever hear of the Dills Act?
                    Believe me, CA is going to put off disaster spending in the hopes Uncle Sugar comes through; those retirement benes leave no choice.

                    1. Yep. Once the governors realized cratering their tax base would be made up for by a fat federal check, it became a no-lose scenario to lock your state up. And we’ll end up bailing out those pension funds, just like they planned.

            2. The vexing thing about that is, so what if they find out she had Covid-19? Nothing reliable they can do about that different from viral pneumonia generally. However, flu there are some specific treatments for that are known somewhat effective.

              1. That is mostly true. The only difference that I’m aware of is that she was prescribed hydroxychloroquine and zithromax. She claimed she felt much better within 48 hours, but that could have happened anyway so it is difficult to draw any definitive conclusions.

                My point was: How often does this happen to people that end up with severe and/or fatal cases? Co-infection is probably common, but it seems most doctors aren’t even bothering to test for flu, just COVID-19. If that patient dies …. tada! Covid-19 killed them, even if they had flu. Maybe the flu alone would have killed them? Maybe Covid-19 alone would have been fine. Would seem to be a massive epidemiological oversight. A real troubling blind spot.

                1. I can’t comment regarding the current circumstance, but years ago there was an ‘honest’ accounting of ‘smoking related’ deaths; the relationship between smoking and some of the issues were distant enough to allow marriage in most states.

                  1. Yep. Say there’s a sober family of 4 driving down the road. The tire pops and the van swerves into a crowd of 3 seated outside at a restaurant, one of which was drinking a beer. Everybody dies.

                    How many of those deaths are alcohol related?

                    ALL SEVEN

                    1. Unless one of them had the covid, which then got them all

          2. Weirdly, the Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting blacks. The liberal media is having something of a freakout about this and trying to figure out how much they get out of that fuel.

            1. Yeah, I’ve seen quite a few stories pop up about that lately. One showed a funeral that took place for someone who died from it–everyone had on masks, etc., but what stood out is that nearly everyone at the funeral was obese, some grossly so.

              In Denver, it’s been hitting the Hispanic and black neighborhoods the most, and this isn’t just because of a lack of financial resources for doctors. The Hispanic neighborhoods are located in some of the filthiest industrial parts of the metro area, and the residents tend to suffer from really bad respiratory ailments like asthma.

            2. More likely to be obese, and more heart disease.

              1. Cofounders, which the media is not willing to deal with.

    4. Total infections the same… but not total deaths.

      Overwhelmed healthcare system on steep curve version means lots of people die due to inadequate healthcare.

      1. So overwhelmed that the floating NAVY hospital in New York has treated all of …. maybe 100 patients. Nothing is overwhelmed. Stop bullshitting.

        1. Did Cyto claim that facilities were overwhelmed? Or only that the flatten-the-curve strategy is predicated on the projection that facilities would be overwhelmed? He’d be wrong about the first, but right about the second.

          1. He’d be wrong about both.

            1. That’s just dumb. Don’t double down on a mistake. So what, you misread a thread… big deal. It happens.

              The question was about what would happen….i.e. a hypothetical. It isn’t a critique of your favorite politician or group.

              The idea is that total cases (area under the curve) stays about the same, but the curve is flatter (and therefore longer lasting), but with a lower peak.

              As long as the peak is below max capacity, then everyone gets normal healthcare. As soon as the peak goes beyond capacity, someone gets left out. The farther above the capacity of the healthcare system the cases climb, the more people are left with inadequate treatment.

              It is really a simple idea.

              Think of it this way… Chicago has roughly 250 people shot each month. They have the capacity to handle this volume of trauma victims, because this is their version of normal. Now, if instead of a relatively flat curve with about 10 people shot per day, year round, what would happen if it was a really steep curve, with all shootings happening over 4th of july weekend?

              3,000 people shot over a 3 day weekend. 100x the normal daily volume. 100x the amount of trauma surgeries that the city is typically asked to handle in a day.

              So…. which case has a greater fatality rate? The one where all 10 guys get high-end trauma treatment each day? Or the one where only 30 guys get adequate treatment over 4th of july weekend, and another 2,970 guys sit in waiting rooms and in hallways bleeding out, waiting for surgeons, operating rooms, blood transfusions, etc.?

              Now does it make sense? Or do you just stick your fingers in your ears and pretend that such a simple idea doesn’t exist?

    5. One aspect that in included in flattening the curve is the idea that you cannot allow the hospital system to become overloaded. Kind of like overflowing a dam. If you stay below that level you are fine. If not the excess water flows unimpeded. So the idea goes that if the hospital system is overloaded, you get excess deaths because you no longer have any capacity to treat people for the virus in question, or for any other fatal conditions.

    6. The models already assumed social distancing before they made their massive “projected” ramp-backs last Sunday and on the 8th.

      Like I said before, they could have kept up their previous predictions, said “Look, this worked better than we even imagined!” and it would have been the perfect CYA maneuver. Instead, they memory-holed the data from those predictions so it looks like the “projected” numbers were low all along.

      They’re lying, and they continue to lie, because the model they’ve been using this whole time has been a fraud.

      1. What is to be gained from all this lying, done in many different countries, all to the same tune? Who is the mastermind behind this global scheme to get people to stay indoors? Big Couch?

        And why is Trump in on it?

        Cui bono?

        1. Been a rough couple years for the “elite” globalist caste worldwide.
          Nice of the covid to come along and force the people to bow down and acknowledge their importance of their “betters”

        2. You are remarkably dense:

          “What is to be gained from all this lying, done in many different countries, all to the same tune?”
          All governments, as self-perpetuating organizations, benefit from “crisis”; there is no need for any central organization.

          “And why is Trump in on it?”
          He isn’t. He’s the outsider despised by the ‘regulars’.

        3. Do you really not understand that all governments everywhere are self perpetuating and will lie their asses of rather than admitting they made a mistake?

          1. DOL is probably not turd; that scumbag will float any lie in the hopes someone is stupid enough to buy it.
            Could be Tony, hoping that lefty lying with some claim to intelligence and neutrality might make his bullshit fly? DOL showed up about the time Tony disappeared…

          2. “Governments lie all the time. Well, not just the American government, it’s just in the nature of governments. Well, they have to lie. And since they all represent the people, in some sense they act against the interest of the people The only way they can hold power is if they lie to the people” -Zinn

            1. Unfortunately, Zinn’s solution is to just replace the current people with others in an even bigger government

              1. Yeah, Zinn argues against himself with a regularity which would be embarrassing to anyone but a lefty.

                1. Bernie has this problem. Sees the issues, exactly the wrong solutions.

        4. Why is IHME deceitfully hiding its former projections? You seem rather clueless as to how to answer that question, particularly since you were dead-ass wrong that social distancing wasn’t accounted for in the model.

    7. This is the question we need to be asking from here until they answer. Somewhere along the way we went from flattening the curve to stopping the virus, which is impossible no matter if we go outside tomorrow or in July or in September.

  18. Many many people posted here that it would end up not being nearly as bad as the pundits predicted. And of course we were right. And then naturally some got banned. Whatever. I guess you lefties found a way to attack Trump from which he could not easily escape. While the leftie governors were shutting down their economies, they will be lauded in the press and layoffs and stagnation blamed on the feds. I guess Russia investigations, impeachment, and every other tactic failed but here we are. You now see the depths the left will go to win reelection and you should be very afraid if they get back any real power. Good luck.

    1. What are 20 million eggs (jobs) when you have an omelet to make?

    2. Do they really ban commenters here for wrongthink? Reason? Really? Maybe that’s what happened to Robert, i.e. me.

      Or maybe just a dumb tech issue.

      1. Chris Littleton wrote: “We have a glitch in the site that is banning users for the wrong reasons. Our web developer will have it fixed soon enough.”

        1. I used to be a fairly generous contributor to REASON; at one time, it seemed they did some good work affecting legislation in CA and the US.
          Reason then started pitching cruises, an office in DC and a web site which is about as buggy as a $0.10/month server can deliver.
          My annual contribution now approaches the REASON monthly server cost.

          1. The magazine got bad too. Delivery became very spotty. Libertarians were eager to blame that on Post Office inefficiency or The Man’s oppression, but it was just the people Reason hired.

            Then they graphically redesigned it to be all kewl for the kids. And more difficult for anybody with presbyopia to read.

            They’ve always had their ideologic and philosophic hobby horses that distorted coverage, but usually not too badly. But in recent years it got bad enough to be seriously annoying, and now with TDS, laughably bad.

  19. We could stop the totalitarian bullshit. Nick ???

  20. All of these actually Hitler Governors are now claiming their Hilter tactics are the only reason we’re not all dead.

    But their models they have been using have never been correct and still aren’t correct even remotely. And of course we’ll never know what if we didn’t go full Hitler.

    Sweden maybe be a test case.

    But what’s next? We seem to not be allowed to talk about it. Good data bent the curve health system is not overwhelmed but don’t any you peons think you can go outside now.

    So we stay full Hitler until the fuhrer’s are good and ready?

    1. Sweden? Hell, just look at South Dakota. They’ve left it up to individual businesses whether to close or not.

  21. This news does not sit well with the grease-ball who finds it ‘good to be King’:

    “Newsom Declares California a “Nation State’”
    https://politicalwire.com/2020/04/10/newsom-declares-california-a-nation-state/

    I doubt his intellectual abilities are capable of grasping that the last time some states seceded from the union, there was a large loss of life. Plus, AFAIK, CA doesn’t have an army, a navy or an air force.
    Perhaps a national smack-down of this grease-ball tin-pot dictator is appropriate.

    1. “CA doesn’t have an army, a navy or an air force.”

      Odds the PRC signs a ‘friendship and mutual protection with the new PRCalifornia, is probably 1000 percent.

      That was a remarkably stupid thing Newsome said. Was it him or jerry Brown who thought he had the authority to make unilateral trade and other foreign policy deals with foreign countries?

      1. “Odds the PRC signs a ‘friendship and mutual protection with the new PRCalifornia, is probably 1000 percent. ”

        Fucking dumbest thing I’ve read all day. I’ll take that bet. What are you good for?

        1. Read more, post less, you fucking troll.

          Learn to read. I wrote, the new PRCalifornia. Implying they’d actually tried to secede. Since they don’t actually have an army, navy or any other armed forces beyond the Guard, if they wanted to secede—LOL at them getting the Marines at Pendleton to join in their fun—they’d need an army from somewhere. That somewhere, would be China.

      2. Alternate comment: “States rights are only good if it’s a red state! Wah!”

        1. Funny how “not a progressive” gets so butthurt when progressive self-conceit is challenged

    2. “Newsom Declares California a “Nation State’”

      If that’s the case, can we nuke the SF-SD corridor as a hostile foreign nation?

      1. Not yet. And it won’t require nukes.

        Bloodletting on the order of the Civil War or worse? Maybe.

  22. Uh…. guys…. I’m pretty sure that you have it all wrong. I was watching CNN, and they fact-checked Trump when he said it wasn’t going to be as bad as they said. He was saying there might be as many as 220,000 deaths in the US, and CNN ridiculed that number, saying it was projected to be as many as 2.5 million.

    CNN was unanimous in their assessment that we are all at risk because Trump is a science denier, and science says that over a million, and possibly as many as 2.5 million Americans are going to die. All because of Trump.

    So stop being science deniers.

    Besides, even though they are saying that the curve is starting to flatten globally, with 100,000 deaths so far, CNN has fact checked the science. So that means we are only 1% through this pandemic.

    Trust CNN on this, guys. You don’t want to be a science denier.

    1. What is the proper response to CNN? Exasperation or apocalyptic hatred? I just can’t choose.

      1. With airports empty, no one is watching cnn… well except for Cyto, apparently.

        1. Actually, the wife has become addicted to CNN. They have her in a panic, and she’s buying what they are selling. She watches a good 10 hours a day, now that she’s in scared soccer mom mode.

          So yeah.. .I digest more than my fair share of CNN. And it is noticeably worse than it was even 2 months ago.

    2. LOL….too funny.

  23. When we look back it’s going to be obvious this thing has been kicking around since December and all these draconian measures were simply closing the barn door months after the horses bolted.

    1. I think the double peak of ILI reports in California for the 19-20 flu season is the smoking gun on that.

      1. They are doing antibody testing in the bay area as we speak, we should know the results in a couple weeks. Although I think this thing has already run through the country, I kind of hope I’m wrong. If the nuking of the economy was done two months after government could have realistically responded, the blowback is going to be SEVERE.

        What were politicians up to in December? Feeding the homeless? Helping the elderly? I know it was really important, I just can’t quite remember…………

  24. This isn’t so-called good news. By not letting nature take its course, we are postponing the inevitable…

    1. Yes because the arc of human achievement has always been about “letting nature take its course”.

      In medicine it is an old joke but got to do this couple times.

      Doc is looking over the test results. Patient says “Alright doc am I gonna die?”

      Doc looks up and says “Yes… eventually but you are OK for now.”

    2. Nice tin-foil lid, but the shiny side has to go on the outside

    3. “Nature taking its course” ?

      You first. Go without: a/c, a roof over your head, agriculture…and on and on.

      Always, always, ALWAYS: the Utopians ask us to sacrifice and die for their goals.

      Me? I want this country to protect the vulnerable, see about getting compensation for this negligent act, and get everybody back to work.

  25. So the US had 1 case on January 21, and 81 days later it has spread to over 500,000 people… spread out across every state in the union.

    I’m going to need this explained, because “exponential growth” doesn’t adequately cover it

    1. I really don’t care.
      People die of various causes; you don’t tank the economy until YOU come up with a good reason why.

      1. I agree.
        My question gets to the lack of knowledge

    2. First – the 500k confirmed cases is not the entire universe. Probably more like maybe 1.5 – 2 million – including recovered and asymptomatic. Say 1.6 million cuz that’s easier. And do the exponential backwards
      1,600k
      800k
      400k
      200k
      100k
      50k
      25k
      12k
      6k
      3k

      The recent growth has been prob double every week – with hopefully much lower going forward. Before that, doubling was about every 5 days. Below the statistical threshhold – say the 3k or 6k, it’s more about individual spread. According to CDC, there are 2138 ‘travel-related’ cases – ie imports – and the real number is higher (esp re the East Coast which got most covid cases from Europe not China) cuz the CDC is an utter clusterfuck

      1. The reason it has become a ‘surprise’ is because on Mar 1 when there were officially 42 cases and 2 deaths – there were more likely about 12k or 25k cases (maybe 300 deaths but many of those were also probably lagged into the testing phase) – you can do the 5-day calendar stuff to see – and that higher number is the base of the exponential spread. March was just playing testing catch-up to the truth. Feb was utter delusion and fraud. As I suppose is March and April for all of you who think this is just the flu.

        1. Stuff your PANIC!!! flag up your ass, stick first.
          You’ve been lying about this since day one, you pathetic piece of cowardly shit, and your bullshit hasn’t gotten better since you’ve been proven to be full of shit day after day.
          Personally, I hope you keep up whining about the issue in the hopes you won’t get sick; it simply proves that you *are* a cowardly piece of lying shit who is terrified you might catch a cold.
          And more than willing to promote the demolition of the economy in the hopes that you won’t have the sniffles.
          There’s a common phrase for assholes like you:
          Fucking cowardly lefty ignoramuses.
          Oh, and when you stuff it up your ass? Do it sideways and die. Please

      2. JFree
        April.11.2020 at 9:54 pm
        “First – the 500k confirmed cases is not the entire universe. Probably more like maybe 1.5 – 2 million – including recovered and asymptomatic. Say 1.6 million cuz that’s easier. And do the exponential backwards…”

        You.
        Are.
        Full.
        Of.
        Shit.
        And a pathetic piece of cowardly shit besides.

  26. “What should we do with such information?’

    Communicate it to Republicans for an impeachment inquiry :

    How much stock in Big Camera does POTUS’ extended family own?

  27. It is very boring for me, talk to me! ?? Write me. ? Maybe we will make friends ?? ==>> Details Here

    1. “5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually: The Seasonal Flu Virus is a “Serious Concern”,..”
      https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932

      1. For this, we shut down the economy.

  28. Your work here on this blog has been top notch from day 1. Cheers! transen in berlin

  29. Coronavirus is very threatening world stability and hopefully quickly passes and is destroyed. Maintain clean habits.

  30. This is only good news if you are one of the rich trying to breed peasants, or don’t think the world is grossly overpopulated by humans. “Good news” would be something like finding out every human infected with this virus becomes permanently sterile.

    1. You’re going to die from the covid

      1. Next month, when the floods come and the Mississippi changes its course, this entire Covid-19 crisis will seem like a picnic.

  31. “There’s no question that the estimated fatality rate and need for hospital beds are coming down partly because of social distancing and other changes in behavior.” – If that is true, why are states with no lock-downs, such as South Carolina, having less deaths than states with intrusive lock-downs, such as Colorado? I mean Wyoming isn’t doing anything at all and they have 0 deaths so far. Neil Ferguson’s numbers, which initiated all these lock-downs, implied that no lock-down would result in 2.2 million deaths in the US, or 240,000 with lock-downs in place–10x the number! There should be an explosion in places like Japan and Sweden where they are not doing lock-downs. This really brings the whole “flattening the curve” lock-down theory into question.

    1. The reason the estimate fatality rate is coming down is (mostly) because the virus is approaching its biological limit. As it spreads, it becomes harder and harder for it to find non-resistant victims. That’s Farr’s Law. It simply isn’t capable of causing 2.2 million deaths in the US under any circumstances or even 240,000 in US unless we spent every waking hour kissing and coughing on as many people as possible. Look at the data from the natural experiments (such as the Diamond Princess) to get an idea on of what this virus is capable of and what it is not.

      BTW, in those states you mention, there is still a whole lot of voluntary social distancing going on I would guess, maybe even more than in those states with government-enforced bans.

  32. ‘What should we do with such information?’

    The answer is obvious. Let’s hold massive street parties to celebrate!

    1. Much as we should have rioted in the streets when the tin-pot dictators imprisoned us.

  33. Hey

    We gonna get this. Stay strong. Stay healthy. Watch out for each other. I don’t care about the government so much.

    Blink 182 did this nice video.

    Happy days.

    Happy Easter.

    https://youtu.be/5C_3EattWe0

    1. I care about the government in that the government ought to be doing its damnedest to do what it can to REDUCE the horrible damage it has caused to the economy.
      So far, we got Trump suggesting things should start happening and a wad of harpies whining ‘IT’S TOO SOON!!!!’
      You’ll forgive my suspicion that the news outlets are less than thrilled that Trump may get the economy moving again and reduce the damage promoted by those news outlets.
      And cowardly assholes like JFree, Hihn and the lot of them…

  34. I see Reason’s web master has left some pages overlaid on others for at least a day now; reading the underlays is impossible.
    My company operates with far less IT assistance, but I would personally be embarrassed if our web site was so pathetically managed.
    Welsh? Your management is worth the $0.02 you get from me each year; it sucks. Whoever is your boss should be recruiting a competent manager. You ain’t.

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  36. Stay home in a pandemic time and visit Shemales in München for your own pleasure

  37. thank to good, hope corona will be finished asap… Wish to God please help the world.

  38. Garbage in / garbage out on the original models.

    While no fan of Mr. Trump, and acknowledging he was slow to act beyond shutting down travel from China and other affected areas, I put the biggest error in the lap of the CDC for its bureaucratic response on testing. We must learn from this error.

    I thank God that Mr. Trump, and not Mrs. Clinton, was in the White House during this crisis, as I would put very few executive overreaches and acts of authoritarianism past Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Trump, despite being an overall arse of a human being, is handling this in the proper manner — allowing governors to be the main arbiters of what should and should not be done in each state. My guess is the best governors will behave accordingly, and delegate a lot of authority to mayors and county executives.

    What makes sense for New York City does not automatically make sense for Boise. Nor does what works for Houston automatically work for Marfa.

    Federalism: what a concept!

  39. concluded that there would “be” 60,145 deaths

    upended American society on the basis “of” projections

  40. Thank God, Soon it will disappear and scientists become successful in developing a vaccine for it.
    For one time cleaning service.

  41. thank goodness, I hope corona will be finished asap… I wish to God please help the world.

    https://www.quotesstudios.com/2020/04/motivational-quotes-in-marathi.html

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