Free Trade

Trump 0, Nerds 1

When it comes to the trade deficit, policy wonks were right and the president was wrong.

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President Donald Trump hates the trade deficit. On the campaign trail back in 2016, he argued that this gap—the imbalance between the value of America's imports and exports—was a sign that China, and others, were "stealing our businesses, stealing our jobs, stealing our money." If elected, he promised, he would "end our chronic trade deficits."

Many politicians make promises on the campaign trail but never really try to deliver on them. Unfortunately, Trump really did make the reduction of the trade deficit a top priority as soon as he got into the White House. His policies to achieve this: an erratic mix of angry tweets, unilateral tariffs hikes, and threats to tear up trade agreements if the original signatories refuse to renegotiate them on Trump's terms.

As these moves set off a global trade war, Trump's defenders formulated—or, more accurately, dusted off—protectionist arguments for forcing other nations to import more from, and to export less to, the U.S. This, they told us, would bring factories back to the U.S.

That was the plan, anyway. What happened instead followed the path that free traders predicted.

As they explained, a country's trade balance is determined overwhelmingly by factors such as the U.S dollar serving as a reserve currency, the ratio of savings to investment opportunities at home and abroad, and the relative attractiveness of that country's investment climate. As long as the United States is growing and remains an attractive place to invest, we Americans will continue to run trade deficits with the rest of the world.

What tariffs can do, they continued, is affect bilateral trade balances with the individual countries against which the tariffs are applied. But this mostly leads American buyers to shift their purchases of imports from one nation to another—say, from China to Vietnam—so U.S. manufacturing is not increased and America's overall trade deficit isn't affected. If there is a reduction in our trade deficits, that won't be because manufacturing is "returning." It'll be because both imports and exports are falling, with the former coming down more than the latter.

Underneath Trump's policies is a profound ignorance of the tight connection between imports and exports. Foreigners sell goods and services to U.S. buyers in order to acquire American dollars. They want these dollars, in part, to buy American exports. So when U.S. imports grow, so do U.S. exports. The reverse is also true: reducing American imports causes Americans to shrink.

More important, and often overlooked: Foreigners want dollars also to invest in America's powerful economy. That includes (but of course isn't limited to) buying U.S. Treasury bonds. In consequence, every dollar Americans spend on foreign goods and services comes back to us. As the U.S. trade deficit rises, investment flows into America increase by the same amount. As the nerds say, the current-account deficit is a mirror image of the capital-account surplus. This is why Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute describes imports as "job-generating foreign investment surpluses for a better America."

It is thus no surprise that as the American economy grew, the trade deficit also grew. This also explains why, as the U.S economy cooled in 2019—in part because of the Trump's trade wars and the rampant uncertainty they created—the trade deficit started to shrink. As this chart shows, higher U.S. trade deficits tend to be associated with faster, not slower, U.S. economic growth.

The bottom line: Absent any major changes in the aforementioned macro factors, over which this president has little control, any reduction in the trade deficit would likely be accompanied by weaker economic growth, as was true during the Great Recession or the Great Depression. 

Trump and his supporters have started to cheer the $10.9 billion reduction of the trade deficit in 2019 as a sign that his policies worked. Trump and his defenders also trot out anecdotes of manufacturing jobs returned to the U.S. as evidence that the newly renegotiated trade deals are succeeding. The reality is quite different. As tariffs increase prices for American buyers (particularly manufacturers), manufacturing activity slowed down and is now bordering on recession. And that trade deficit reduction, as recent Census data reveal, is the product of both imports and exports falling. 

Something else in those Census numbers: Tariffs on Chinese imports may be reducing our bilateral trade deficit with China, but that doesn't mean Americans are buying from U.S. producers instead. Instead, places like Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia are picking up the slack.

So the free traders were right. If you want to lower the trade deficit, your best bet is to reduce both imports and exports—or just to have an economic crisis. Who really wants that?

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  1. Yeap. The policy wonks like Krugman were correct about the global meltdown of all economies. You got it.

    1. That’s an interesting response to something nobody said.

      1. Oh you’re crying agian.

    2. +100000000000000

    3. Unrelated. This article is definitely not referring to him and his ilk.

      What happened instead followed the path that free traders predicted.

  2. “If you want to lower the trade deficit…”

    The US trade deficit is a deliberate global economic policy to maintain the dollar’s status as the main reserve currency. In order for any country that trades with US to grow its reserves, it must run a trade surplus with US, which means the US runs a trade deficit with that country. Anyone wants to end the trade deficit needs to understand that the US must give up on the dollar being the world’s reserve currency in order to balance trade.

    1. This. One of our biggest and best exports is little rectangular pieces of paper, in exchange for which the world sends us vast wealth.

      Some call this a trade deficit. I call it the sweetest international trade deal since WWII ended.

      1. You mean you’d rather have a Japanese car than a few small stacks of paper (or, in reality, a few extra 1’s in a database)? Weirdo.

      2. Money isn’t paper currency now. It is the mortgage lien on your house.

  3. Uh-oh, Veronique. This article is going to upset the socialist commentariat here mightily.

    1. So those of us who favor free trade are socialists? How does your “logic” work?

      (Or is it, perhaps, that all of those of us who find Dear Leader {and His Policies} to be less than Spectacularly Perfect, are socialists?).

      1. Neat how you automatically assumed that you were a part of the socialist commetariat he was referring to, Sqrsly.

      2. Are you deranged? I was talking about LC1789 and his I’ll.

    2. How come you’re not upset then?

  4. Worst. Economy. Ever.

    #DrumpfRecession

  5. What tariffs can do, they continued, is affect bilateral trade balances with the individual countries against which the tariffs are applied. But this mostly leads American buyers to shift their purchases of imports from one nation to another—say, from China to Vietnam—so U.S. manufacturing is not increased and America’s overall trade deficit isn’t affected. If there is a reduction in our trade deficits, that won’t be because manufacturing is “returning.” It’ll be because both imports and exports are falling, with the former coming down more than the latter.

    So what you’re saying is, not only less overall globalism but that what globalism we will have won’t be as China-centric? What’s the downside again?

    1. They don’t understand what winning is. Maybe they’ll figure it out by 2024.

      1. I understand how it might be difficult for a libertarian, but presumably we could imagine some people don’t value the US dollar as a reserve currency (or at least not primarily/exclusively) and the fact that it’s part of a deliberate global economic policy makes them value it, as such, even less.

        I know that, as libertarians, we have a long and dedicated history of supporting global governance and central banking, but I think we can overcome it and see the value of dedicating a/the financial reserve power into something more material or productive and less directly government produced and controlled. Maybe if we try hard enough, we can convince our libertarian compatriots that such absurd ideas aren’t the worst thing in the world.

        1. “I know that, as libertarians, we have a long and dedicated history of supporting global governance and central banking”

          Some call that libertarian thinking. Some call it beltway liberaltarian utopia.

          “Maybe if we try hard enough, we can convince our libertarian compatriots that such absurd ideas aren’t the worst thing in the world.”

          My effort will consist of coming here to yell at clouds, insisting that utopia does not exist

      2. It still absolutely boggles me how every time tariffs come up, they start reading out of an Intro to Micro textbook as if we don’t already know that tariffs are inefficient and that we believe the costs of tariffs (yes, some of those costs are to consumers in the form of higher prices) are worth it. It’s really weird how for our supposedly weak argument in favor of tariffs, they can’t actually honestly represent those arguments. Why keep arguing with strawmen? Or maybe it’s their tacit admission that there’s a lot more legitimacy to countering Chinese economic aggression, creating domestic economic opportunities that promote economic mobility, less reliance on foreign powers (and by extension foreign political demands), and most important of all, protecting free trade by refusing to comply with foreign trade barriers. Trump tariffs are retaliatory. It’s not like the world is some free market utopia that big bad Blumpf blew up.

        1. Please define “economic aggression”. Does it involve selling things consumers are happy to pay for?

          1. This may not be reflective of aggression but it is stupid economic policy by the U.S. for the last 20 years.

            https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence-pharmaceutical-products-china

            Any investor knows you never put all your eggs in one basket no matter how good run it’s had. Having China be the workshop of the world is dumb, dumb, dumb.

  6. “Instead, places like Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia are picking up the slack.”

    Good. We now trade less with communist, slave holding, body snatchers that use the “free market” to make products that capture our personal information.

    The idea that nerds “won” is exactly why Trump is there in the first place. You’ll gladly “win” until we’ve been completely fucked over by China. Enjoy your cheap steel and plastic crap.

    Maybe you’re nerds, but you’re definitely clowns. And you’ll never win elections by being buddies with communists.

    1. As soon as we establish more free trade with Vietnam etc., Trump will make us yank up our supply chains AGAIN! NO un-Americans ANYWHERE, may be allowed to “steal R. jerbs”!!!

      https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-vietnam-tariffs-trade-war-target-2019-6
      Trump threatens to expand his trade war by slapping tariffs on Vietnam

      1. What a terrible world it would be if the corporations of America, or indeed the world, hated global leaders who could disrupt supply chains on a relative whim.

        Much better that they rely on a consistent stream of ‘go along to get along’ officials to lead them towards freedom.

        1. “…global leaders who could disrupt supply chains on a relative whim…”

          You mean like Donald Trump?

          1. Like the people who create bioweapons and allow them to spread to their own people while lying to the rest of the world.

            Ignore that though, it crushes your idea of liberaltopia

            1. Better check the label on the foil you use to make your hats. It might be from China.

              1. Ahahah he went with “NU UH” ahahahaja

                That’s the denial that made you an alky bruh.

      2. He says a lot of things. Some of them are said for the sole purpose of deal making. Some are nonsense.

        Unfortunately for you, you’ll have to sit back and watch your assets continue to skyrocket and watch your neighbors live prosperous, happy lives.

        1. No economic boom lasts forever… This one is overdue for a haircut!

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/out-economists-predict-us-recession-by-survey-finds/
          3 out of 4 economists predict a U.S. recession by 2021, survey finds
          The findings reflect growing skepticism the U.S. economy can withstand a protracted trade war without serious harm amid a weakening global outlook

          Japan is partways down the crapper… Next is Germany. Soon enough, the USA…

          1. “This one is overdue for a haircut!”

            Ah yes, leftist cheerleading a recession, must be a day ending in y.

  7. “[R]educing American imports causes Americans to shrink”? I don’t feel any smaller.

    Reason, you need proofreaders.

    1. They have to free up a staff position to afford a proofreader. Post your nominations below.

    2. “[R]educing American imports causes Americans to shrink”

      Suderman hardest hit

    3. I have noticed my pants getting a bit looser lately.

  8. I feel about our trade treaties like I do about our immigration policies–just because I think they should be subject to public opinion doesn’t mean I agree with public opinion.

    To the extent that Reason staff criticizes Trump’s trade policy rationally, they do so correctly. Trump’s trade war is the things I would criticize him for the most–even if his international trade policy is far better than what we would have under Sanders.

    If I voted for Donald Trump, it would be in spite of his trade wars–certainly not because of them.

    1. Right but you’re an idiot and a liar so no one cares what you think.

      1. Are you really still this upset over something Ken posted like three weeks ago? You’re not well, dude.

  9. was a sign that China, and others, were “stealing our businesses, stealing our jobs, stealing our money.” If elected, he promised, he would “end our chronic trade deficits.”

    So Drumpf supporters thought that he could magically fix Americans greed that we ourselves created by wanting the very best we can get at the cheapest price we can pay? That explains why everything sold in America is made somewhere else, including those funny looking red caps I see floating around from time to time, just saying!

  10. As they explained, a country’s trade balance is determined overwhelmingly by factors such as the U.S dollar serving as a reserve currency government deciding that Wall St must be a protected industry and that the US spend ungodly amounts on global defense of certain commodities and shipping routes.

    there FIFY.

    1. As they explained, a country’s trade balance is determined overwhelmingly by factors such as the U.S dollar serving as a reserve currency government deciding that Wall St must be a protected industry and that the US spend ungodly amounts on global defense of certain commodities and shipping routes.

      Much like the tariffs, I don’t agree with your specific implementation, but the general attitude of “Hey, maybe a US-China dominant global economy isn’t such a good idea or, at least, isn’t sacrosanct.” has merit. Moreover, 5 more of you with different ideas about China and the US as global leaders is better than the continued march of “Let’s do this!” globalists.

  11. Trump 1000 vs Lefties and Lefty nerds 0

  12. What’s particularly libertarian about enormous, bureaucratic, heavily regulated trade agreements versus a no-rules trade war?

    1. More free trade (“free” in that buyers and sellers have at least SOME freedom from Governments Almighty) is better than LESS free trade; it is that simple! Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good!

      If trade wars are good, every one of the 50 states in the USA should declare trade wars on every other state… And then county on county, city on city, and finally, SQRLSY One’s household should trade with NO ONE… Good jobs ONLY for residents of SQRLSY One’s household!!! No one else DESERVES to trade with me!!! I will do my own iron ore mining, smelting, tool manufacture, food growing, cloth weaving, home dentistry, you name it… It is actually a straight-line ticket to utter poverty!!!

      1. Yep. Self-sufficiency may be romantic, but it ain’t the path to prosperity.

        1. God you are so fucking dumb.

      2. I didn’t ask about whether or not comprehensive international trade agreements were profitable, Sqrlsy. I asked if anything about them was particularly libertarian, versus reactionary trading policies.

        1. Libertarians… Certainly my kind of libertarian, at the very least… Treasure individual freedoms VERY highly! Everyone should be free as much as is at all practical, short of the so-called “freedom” to irresponsibly interfere with the freedoms of others. The more freedoms that we as individuals have, to buy and sell to each other, while MINIMIZING the micro-management of Government Almighty thugs, the better! Summary: More individual freedom is better than less individual freedom! Freedom good; slavery bad!

          I know that there are SOME so-called “libertarians” who will pout and fight against something (such as managed trade, or school vouchers) because it’s not “libertarian near-perfect” (like totally free trade, or totally privatized schools). That’s not me… Better is better, even when it ain’t perfect!

          1. You have shit in your teeth Hihn

          2. Again, I didn’t ask for your general philosophy on libertarianism or opinion on trade.
            I asked if comprehensive international trade agreements were somehow more libertarian than reactionary trade practices a la what Trump is doing, and if so, why.
            I personally don’t think anything about NAFTA, it’s successor, or the European Commissioner for Trade is anymore libertarian than Trump’s tariffs..

    2. “no-rules trade war”

      Huh? Tariffs are very much “rules”.

      1. Tariffs aren’t a “trade war” retard.

        1. $parcasmic is soooo utterly brainless, it’s a waste of time talking to it, brainless wonder!

          Now I must go attend to things that actually matter… But if you should, by some miracle, decide that YOU want to actually matter, in the real world, you might want to give up some of your narcissism! Go read this:

          https://blogs.psychcentral.com/psychology-self/2020/02/narcissist-inferior/
          7 Ways Narcissists Make You Feel Inferior

          This is YOU, Tulpa!

      2. Tariffs are some of the tools used, not the actual war.

  13. One of the reasons libertarians are irrelevant is because they see economic growth (or more specifically, GDP) as the only thing that matters. Sometimes we should factor in other things like, should we be doing business with countries that put people in concentration camps based on religion? Should we allow foreign tech to build our communications infrastructure?

    1. Nobody is forcing you to buy stuff from “countries that put people in concentration camps based on religion.”

      Personally I’d rather trade with them. Trade leads to prosperity, and prosperity allows people to shake off the shackles.

      1. Trade leads to prosperity, and prosperity allows people to shake off the shackles.

        There’s not much evidence to support that.

        Nobody is forcing you to buy stuff from “countries that put people in concentration camps based on religion.”

        Nobody is forcing you not to, and that’s the problem.

        1. Slavery was normal for literally thousands of years. It was killed by free markets and capitalism. Wealthy societies don’t need it. It’s counterintuitive, but the best way to end repression is to trade with oppressed people. China isn’t nearly as oppressive as it was before market reforms.

          1. It was killed by Western powers spending money to end it. It is still quite ongoing in parts of the world, though, that the West didn’t spend lots of money ending it in.

            Slavery did not remotely die on its own.

  14. I would rather my money go to countries like Mexico than China. So I have no problem with raising tariffs on China.

  15. Or… Trump is pretending to be sincere about tariffs in order to twist China’s arm into a better trade deal, which continues to be a theory that fits the evidence and would be more consistent with his and his party’s position over the years.

    But even if he’s a genuine believer in tariffs and “trade deficits”, at least he doesn’t want to spend $97T nationalizing everything like the other guy does. And no, that’s not “whataboutism”. That’s honest comparison of options.

  16. Do you guys LIKE being wrong on the economy?

    I mean, you’re at Krugman levels at this point.

    And, yes, I know that reads to you all TODAY as a compliment, but there was a time when getting compared to Krugman was an embarrassment to Reason economic writers.

    1. And your point is? …

      Can you please make a point that we can agree with, or not agree with, or refute, or not refute?

      Krugman is an embarrassment to ALL thinking humans EVERYWHERE (agreed), but beyond that? “wrong on the economy”… How, when, why? Free trade… Or at least, free-ER trade… is BAD? Why?

  17. “More important, and often overlooked: Foreigners want dollars also to invest in America’s powerful economy.”

    Overlooked by Globalists is that “investment” is not merely shipping boxes of free money back to the US. Investment is a transfer of assets for money is *ownership* is *control*.

    Reason: There is absolutely no downside to having your country owned by Emperor Xi.

    1. Please explain why and how our “…country (is) owned by Emperor Xi”, in ANY significant way, more-so than it is owned by Emperor Trump! Emperor Xi hasn’t slapped any tariffs / taxes on me and mine, lately!

      buybuydandavis: There is no downside to sucking Trump’s dick, all day and every day!

      1. Where China owns, Xi controls. Recall that story about a hotel firing people for tweeting something negative about Xi?

        Ownership is control. Reason calls selling control of assets in the US to Emperor Xi “investment”. I have yet to hear them say there is any limit on the desirability on that investment. Have you?

        The US government slaps taxes on you and yours with every paycheck they take home.

        Why are those taxes preferable to taxing Emperor Xi?

        1. USA inbound tariffs don’t tax Emperor Xi… They tax you and me!

          You don’t want to buy from Emperor Xi? Then don’t! But PLEASE allow me to make my OWN buying decisions, without “Collective Hive”-imposed punishments? Is that too much to ask?

          That’s pretty simple and basic!

          1. Exclamation! Points! Are! Not! An! Argument!

            Are my income taxes a tax on my employer? No? Tariffs aren’t taxes on domestic purchasers either.

            You got an answer yet for why import taxes are The Devil but income and payroll taxes perfectly fine?

  18. Reason: Free trade is when American workers pay payroll and income taxes, while Emperor Xi pays no tax on his slave produced exports to the US.

    Reason has yet to explain why Americans should be taxed on their labor, but Emperor Xi should not be taxed on his goods.

    Adam Smith favored tariffs to offset local taxes on production.
    Wealth of Nations, pg. 356
    https://ibiblio.org/ml/libri/s/SmithA_WealthNations_p.pdf

    “It will generally be advantageous to lay some burden upon foreign industry for the encouragement of domestic industry, when some tax is imposed at home upon the produce of the latter. In this case, it seems reasonable that an equal tax should be imposed upon the like produce of the former. This would not give the monopoly of the borne market to domestic industry, nor turn towards a particular employment a greater share of the stock and labour of the country, than what would naturally go to it. It would only hinder any part of what would naturally go to it from being turned away by the tax into a less natural direction, and would leave the competition between foreign and domestic industry, after the tax, as nearly as possible upon the same footing as before it.”

    1. buybuydandavis: Free trade is when buybuydandavis gangs up with Emperor Trump, and 51% of the voters… Or 45% of the voters as assisted by crazy imbalances created by the Sacred Electoral College… And DECIDES FOR THE REST OF US, exactly WHO is a “slave laborer”, and who is NOT! In other words, the Collective Hive will arrogate to itself, the decision of WHO are slave-owners, and who is NOT a slave owner! If the Collective Hive decides that you are a slave owner, or a buyer from slave owners? Then YOU are a slave of the Collective Hive, and must obey ALL commands from the Collective Hive!!!

      Are all clear now!?!?! All must obey the Collective Hive!!! All Hail!

      1. “Reason has yet to explain why Americans should be taxed on their labor, but Emperor Xi should not be taxed on his goods.”

        You haven’t provided an explanation either.

        1. “Reason has yet to explain why Americans should be taxed on their labor, but Emperor Xi should not be taxed on his goods.”

          USA Government Almighty needs to be MUCH smaller than it is, but, till humans become angels, USA needs SOME taxes! You have a fix where we need NO taxes? Then let’s hear about it!

          If we need SOME taxes, then the next question becomes, which taxes are LEAST likely to take too much of our freedoms away?

          Government Almighty picking protectionist winners and losers is a WAAAY bad way to go, to raise taxes!

          Meanwhile in the real world…
          https://reason.com/2019/04/22/trumps-washing-machine-tariffs-cleaned-out-consumers/
          Trump’s Washing Machine Tariffs Cleaned Out Consumers
          A new report finds the tariffs raised $82 million for the U.S. Treasury but ended up increasing costs for consumers by about $1.2 billion.

          PROTECTIONISM DOESN’T WORK!!! DUH!!!
          Protect American washing-machine makers from Chinese competition? The FIRST thing that American washing-machine makers do, is jack UP their prices… AND the prices of dryers to boot, too! To SOAK the hell out of all of us consumers!!!
          From the above-linked Reason article about washing machines…
          “All told, those tariffs raised about $82 million for the U.S. Treasury but ended up increasing costs for consumers by about $1.2 billion during 2018 … (deleted). Although the trade policy did cause some manufacturers to shift production from overseas to the United States in an effort to avoid the new tariffs, the 1,800 jobs created by Trump’s washing machine tariffs cost consumers an estimated $820,000 per job.”

          Summary: Nickels and dimes to the USA treasury; boatloads of pain for consumers. USA jobs created? Yes, at GREAT expense! Putting these 1.8 K workers on a super-generous welfare program would have been WAY better for all the rest of us! Plus, you know the WORKERS don’t make super-huge bucks; the goodies flow to the EXECUTIVES at the top of the washing-machine companies! The same ones who play golf with The Donald, and join him for gang-banging Stormy Daniels! Essentially at our expense!

          1. “Government Almighty picking protectionist winners and losers is a WAAAY bad way to go, to raise taxes!”

            Government is currently picking Emperor Xi as the winner and American workers as the losers. Emperor Xi doesn’t get taxed, American workers do. It’s the #AmericaLast policy favored by America Haters everywhere.

            An even-handed approach that *didn’t* pick winners and losers would tax Emperor Xi to offset local taxes on production, *exactly* as recommended by Adam Smith in the quote I post to every Boehm article.

            1. I say again, “the 1,800 jobs created by Trump’s washing machine tariffs cost consumers an estimated $820,000 per job.”

              And you know damned well that I am right; these workers are now getting paid NO WHERE NEAR $820,000!!! The excess goes to fat-cat execs in the USA, which are favored by Donald Trump, who picks the winners and losers! We the consumers are the losers, while The Donald and His Favored Ones play golf and plow Stormy Daniels!

              Protectionism doesn’t work! Hello?!?!

              This pattern of Donald getting special favors from fat-cats, and scratching the backs of the fat-cats, goes WAAAY back, to how Donald got his real-estate loans, so that he could default on them, and rip off the banks. See … Here’s the latest about Trump’s history as an arrogant, greedy-pig, selfish asshole…
              https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/biggest-bombshells-trump-deutsche-bank-lending-new-york-times-report-2020-2-1028908722#same-bank-different-teams2

              Last time around, fat-cats scratched Donald’s back first; this time around, vice versa. No big difference. In both cases, you and I pay for it all!

  19. But this mostly leads American buyers to shift their purchases of imports from one nation to another—say, from China to Vietnam

    That’s the point of the tariffs: they are punitive on China specifically in order to induce China to change their behavior. They are not intended to fix the trade deficit per see.

    1. Trump has repeatedly described trade deficits as “losses”

      “We as a nation lost $817 billion dollars on trade. That’s ridiculous and it’s unacceptable”

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