Cruz and Sanders Win in Wisconsin

Contested conventions incoming?

Credit: DonkeyHotey / photo on flickr

Wisconsin's primary today might be a big deal for anybody who is fascinated by the horseracy-ness of the march to the conventions. Or everybody wants us to think it's important, anyway. There are 42 Republican delegates and 86 Democratic delegates. Wisconsin has a complicated delegate system you can read about here if you like. Given that the Republican candidate needs 1,237 delegates and the Democratic candidate needs 2,383, it's not actually going to change the current standings. The big question is whether Sen. Ted Cruz would get enough delegates to make sure that Donald Trump doesn't hit that magic number and therefore guarantee a contested Republican convention.

Within 30 minutes of the polls closing, Cruz was projected the winner of the state, with Trump in second. Gov. John Kasich, the hero of a movie that exists solely in his own head, is in third.

On the Democratic side, CNN has projected that Sanders is the winner.

It so happens that Cruz and Bernie Sanders were leading in the polls, so there's going to be a lot of "What does it mean?" analysis over the two frontrunners failing to run the front in this one state. Ultimately that means a lot of analysis on how Wisconsin voters reacted to events and policy proposals and little analysis of the policies themselves (What CNN has been saying in their exit polls is that Wisconsin voters weren't terribly concerned about immigration issues but were concerned about the impacts of world trade).

Interested in anything more than simply the vote tallies? Here's some recent posts at Reason exploring candidate policies, statements, and behavior:

• "The Incredible Cluelessness of Donald Trump," by Peter Suderman
• "Bernie Sanders Hates the World's Poor and Wants to Hurt Them," by Brian Doherty
• "Trump: I'll Force Mexico to Pay for the Wall by Threatening to Cut Off Remittances," by Nick Gillespie
• "How Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Have Made the Libertarian Party Relevant," by Anthony Fisher
• "Hillary Clinton So Sick and Tired of Bernie Sanders Campaign Lies," by Ed Krayewski

Comments

[Notorious UGCC]

Shorter Shackford: "Cruz and Sanders win - here's a bunch of our old stories about Trump and Clinton."

[Smilin' Joe Fission]

tl;dr

[lap83]

Trump lost ; didn't read?

[Hamster of Doom]

too late; democratic rule

[Eternal Blue Sky]

Trumpless, didn't read.

[SIV]

Wisconsin voters weren't terribly concerned about immigration issues

Outside Milwaukee Wisconsin is pretty homogeneous.

[Quixote]

The fundamental issue, at least in New York, is which candidate will finally take the serious steps that need to be taken to definitively put a stop to the scourge of Internet trolling and mockery of distinguished members of the academic community that has been steadily sapping the strength of our great society. Despite the foolish "First Amendment dissent" of a single liberal judge, let us all join together and agree that certain forms of "speech" need to be suppressed if we are going to make our nation strong again. See the documentation of America's leading criminal "satire" case at:

http://raphaelgolbtrial.wordpress.com/

[Hrimnir]

Weak troll attempt bruh...

[soflarider]

Smells more like spam.

[Quixote]

Hrimnir and Soflarider, thanks for joining my anti-Troll campaign! While this fundamental issue is being debated in an appropriately civil manner by the candidates, let us all join in applauding the further measures currently being taken in this regard in the New York State Senate:

http://tinyurl.com/senate-troll-bill

[Jerryskids]

Well at least if we're up to the W's there aren't many of these primary things left, are there? Worshington, Wyoming, Yokelahoma and Zanzibar?

[Chipper Morning Wood]

Lol @ Yokelhoma. Yaaaaewn, agreed that these primaries are booooring. Time to go dust off the Romney.

[Hamster of Doom]

Worshington.

[wef]

Watching Cruz's victory blather confirms Paglia's distillation - "Cruz's lugubrious, weirdly womanish face, with its prim, tight smile and mawkishly appealing puppy-dog eyebrows, is like a waxen mask, always on the verge of melting.This guy doesn't know who the hell he is - and the White House is no place for him and us to find out."

[John]

No he doesn't. You watch, he is going to be on the DC Madam list. The guy is practically speaking in tongues and hitting the ground going holy roller on the campaign trail and it will turn out that he was out whoring in DC. Of course the same people who claim that Trump is unfit because he traded in his wife on a new model a couple of times will consider this to be just a private matter.

I am with Paglia. I don't think Cruz believes much of anything. Also, it would be a bit of karmic justice for all the never Trump crowd if it turns out to be Cruz who is they lying demagogue.

[Chipper Morning Wood]

Trumpalo logic is fascinating.

[John]

Cruz campaigns as a huge Christian and it turns out he is out seeing whores. That causes me to consider him a phony. What about that is illogical? Do you think being a holy roller is consistent with seeing whores?

I think the problem here is that you find logic fascinating because it doesn't seem to be something you are very familiar with.

[HeteroPatriarch]

Jhon's gonna John.

[HeteroPatriarch]

Oops

[NebulousFocus]

Seeing this was a reference to John, I assumed the typo was not accidental.

[Slammer]

" Do you think being a holy roller is consistent with seeing whores?"

Yes.

[Ceci n'est pas un woodchipper]

To be fair, all you need to do to be Christian is believe that Jesus Christ was the son of God, died for your sins, and rose again after three days. Sure, you've got commandments and rituals and so forth, but believing in the canon is the only actual requirement.

[ace_m82]

To be fair, all you need to do to be Christian is believe that Jesus Christ was the son of God, died for your sins, and rose again after three days.

A common misconception, you're very close to being right. Close, but really quite far.

"If you declare with your mouth, 'Jesus is Lord,'..." Romans 10:9a

What does this mean? Does it mean intellectually saying "Yep, you're God's Son" and then going on with your life? No. It means accepting him as the Lord he already is. One of the consequences of your belief is actually acting like Jesus is Lord (faith without works is dead).

Jesus says it himself in Matthew 7:20-23:

"Thus, by their fruit you will recognize them. Not everyone who says to me, 'Lord, Lord,' will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only the one who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. Many will say to me on that day, 'Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name and in your name drive out demons and in your name perform many miracles?' Then I will tell them plainly, 'I never knew you. Away from me, you evildoers!'"

And for more on that point, James 2:19:

"You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that--and shudder."

[Eternal Blue Sky]

"Do you think being a holy roller is consistent with seeing whores?"

In certain religions, definitely. Temple prostitution and all that.

[Eternal Blue Sky]

Heck, Jesus hung out with whores. The bible says as much. And other sinners. That was one of the main criticisms the Pharisees levied against the guy.

[Intraveneous Woodchipper]

Doubt he was ahem "patronizing" them, though...

[LynchPin1477]

I know I always vote based on physical appearance.

[Eric Bana]

I vote based on a vague notion of who I happen to kind of like a little more than the other.

[thom]

I base my vote 100% on who I would most like to have a beer with.

[Trials and Trippelations]

So you vote for yourself?

[Intraveneous Woodchipper]

I vote for whoever seems most likely to get off to anime dungeon porn. In this cycle, it has to be Kasich with Trump a close second.

[wareagle]

Cruz is the same guy whose PAC was behind the Mrs Trump photo, which seemed a weird combination of jealousy and creepiness. I wonder what your wife says when you're fixated on a picture of another guy's wife.

[HeteroPatriarch]

Any evidence of that, beyond Trump's ass-covering tu quoque accusation?

[Sidd Finch v2.01]

Trump wrote "Paid for by Make America Awesome" on the meme?

[SugarFree]

Evidence is for losers.

[JeremyR]

Uh, it was a Rubio PAC that did it. And a very small one at that, headed by a self described libertarian, actually, who used to work for Rand Paul by the name of Liz Mair

https://twitter.com/LizMair

[Zunalter]

SugarFree|4.6.16 @ 8:35AM|#

Evidence is for losers.

[DarrenM]

Yes. If you have to fall back on actual evidence to win an argument, you've already lost.

[Brochettaward]

Of all the issues with Cruz, not knowing who he is isn't one of them. He has been plotting for this moment for a very long time and knows exactly what he wants. And he's been very smart about going about getting it.

[John]

Cruz can't get to a majority and the establishment will screw him out of the nomination even before they screw Trump out of it. He has no chance at the nomination and must realize this. Basically he is ensuring Trump isn't the nomination and the establishment gets its preferred crapweasel. So much for Cruz being "anti-establishment".

[B. Woodrow Chippenhaus]

It will be a joy to watch the RNC repeal the Romney rule that kept Ron Paul off the stage so they could coronate Mitt amid the illusion of solidarity, only they'll do it this time so they can coronate some other statist dipshit and alienate the rest of the people who might have otherwise pulled the red lever for them. Who will of course still be a maniacal right wing maniac in the eyes of Team Blue's neo-communistas in the media.

[John]

They want to lose in November. The last 8 years have been great for Republican politicians and conservative journalists and activists. The last thing any of them want is to be responsible for anything. They had that big CPAC convention down at the National Harbor every year. And every person there seems to be doing quite well for themselves. Why the hell would any of those people want to change things?

[Notorious UGCC]

Some of the conservative journalists and activists are supporting Trump, you know.

[John]

Very few. Most of them are shitting their pants talking about how they can only support a "conservative". You know, like Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.

[Notorious UGCC]

There's Breitbart and Ann Coulter off the top of my head.

Perhaps they are steely-eyed realists who - unlike their colleagues - want the Republicans to nominate a viable candidate?

/sarc

[John]

Or perhaps they are outsiders who don't care if the Republicans nominate someone who kisses their ass and pretends they are important?

The conservative media doesn't give a shit if a Republican candidate is actually conservative. They care that the candidate pretends they are one and pays homage to them. If they do that, the candidate could be a socialist and they would sign up for it.

[SIV]

the candidate could be a socialist and they would sign up for it.

Worked for W

[Notorious UGCC]

You're going to have to be a bit more specific as to which parts of the conservative media you mean.

There's no way I will start defending them just for the fun of contradicting you, but your highly sweeping statements seem...highly sweeping.

[John]

National Review, Weekly Standard, Fox News to name three

[Notorious UGCC]

National Review isn't nearly as good as it once was, Weekly Standard was never as good as it once was, and Fox I don't watch enough to be sure.

Organized conservatism has certainly dropped the ball, I know that much.

[Sidd Finch v2.01]

also The Blaze and Salem Media

[JeremyR]

So why aren't they supporting Trump then? He's basically Hillary Clinton drag, politically? He might not be the socialist Sanders is, but he's not far from it.

It's only the "alt-right" media (basically racists) and Fox News that are pushing Trump

[wareagle]

you would think that holding a majority in Congress, plus governors' mansions and state legislatures makes them responsible for something.

[John]

You would think that. But Obama is like Superman. There is nothing they can do to stop him.

[BYODB]

No, John, they want to lose because -none- of their guys got in at all, hence Kasich staying in the race. He's hoping to just win by fiat. Since it's unclear if the Republican party is willing to piss all over their voters to that extent, or even if they could get Kasich in at all, Trump they view as a guy they can maybe work with (and they probably can, honestly). But Cruz? No way. It's clear the Republicans will cut off their own balls rather than have him win.

We all know you don't care about 'anti-establishment'. You're voting for Trump, after all, so pretty much everything you say rings as hollow as The Donalds head. Calling him 'anti-establishment' is laughable. He's all about the established political order, he's just pretending that he isn't to win over people like you.

The only reason you're against Cruz is because he might derail Trump and might conceivably win the general election. It's clear Hillary wins over Trump, but keep pretending that he might win against all evidence to the contrary. I'm sure Clinton won't be too bad, right?

[Bill Dalasio]

So, Cruz is pro-GOP Establishment because he won't hand the election over to a crony capitalist who supports tax hikes, socialized medicine, and eminent domain abuse.

This is your brain.

This is your brain on Donald Trump.

[John]

Cruz is running a hopeless campaign that will likely have the effect of letting the establishment put their guy in at an open convention. Why is he doing that? I don't think he is delusional. So he has to know he is more fucked than Trump in an open convention. In an open convention he has even less of a claim than Trump. So why is he running?

It is not hard to figure out.

[Notorious UGCC]

The Lizard People put him up to it?

[John]

No, the higher the pay off when he supports the establishment candidate. If there is an open convention, the nominee will not be Cruz or Trump. It will be Romney or Ryan or someone else the establishment wants. Cruz is then seen as the good soldier who handed the nomination back to the establishment. And they will reward him accordingly.

Cruz is a crap weasel. It took me a while to realize it. But when I saw his "Jesus says to vote for me routine", my stomach turned. That was when I knew he was a phony.

[LynchPin1477]

But why did you decide not to vote for him?

[John]

I would vote for him if he had the nomination. He is better than Hillary. But I don't trust him as far as I can throw him. Beyond that, even if he is what he claims to be, he would be a disaster as President. He would just be a conservative Obama. You can't be a good President and tell everyone who didn't vote for you to go fuck themselves and then proceed to strong arm what you want by any means necessary. That is what Obama has done and what Cruz, if he isn't the phony I suspect he is, would do. Even if I agreed with what he did, it wouldn't end well.

[LynchPin1477]

You remember that young New Hampshire student (the hot one) who went on some diatribe about how awful and untrustworthy Hillary is? And then when the reporter asked if she would vote for her, she paused and said "Yes". A lot of commenters had a good laugh about that.

That's you, except without the pause.

[John]

LYnchPin1477,

Saying someone is "better than Hillary" is not an endorsement. It is a simple concept; this guy sucks and is probably a complete phony but his opponent is worse, so I would vote for him if that were the choice.

What about that doesn't make sense to you? I didn't see the student from New Hampshire, but maybe that person was saying the same thing and you didn't understand them either. I don't know. Either way, what you are saying isn't making a lot of sense. Do you think votes count as some kind of sacred endorsement? The can never be made on the basis of a lesser of two evils?

[LynchPin1477]

I think the lesser of two evils strategy helped get us to this point in the first place. And even if it is viable, it's got to have a limit. I read what you read about Cruz upthread, and then to see you so quickly turn around and say sure you'd vote for him, even though he would be a "disaster" and you don't trust him...it's so horribly emblematic of our politics. And you buy in with eyes wide open. It's astonishing.

[John]

It's astonishing.

It is only astonishing because you apparently believe that you can magically will better candidates or think that if enough people refuse to vote the guy who wins will care even if he won because he got his own vote and no one else.

You honestly seem to think that politics should always give you a good or even not bad candidate. I don't think you are a dumb person. But I find it astonishing that an otherwise intelligent person could believe something that stupid. I think you might be better off if you just stopped thinking about politics.

[DarrenM]

No one with the connections, personality, and lack of ethics to make it in national politics can really be trusted.

[Notorious UGCC]

I'd have to know more about his timing. When he went into the campaign, did he expect Trump to be getting support, and wanted to siphon off that support?

Or did he go into the campaign without knowing how yuuuge Trump was going to be? In which case I suppose his sin is not quitting once Trump started picking up support?

[Notorious UGCC]

If he'd quit at that time, then of course he'd be open to the suspicion that he'd cut some kind of a deal with Mr. Art of the Deal.

[John]

He went into the campaign thinking he would win. I am talking about over the last few weeks. He can't get to a majority. So he can't get the nomination. He is just hanging in there to hand the convention back to the establishment. We will see. Maybe he will win in an open convention. If so, then you can call me out on it. I don't think that will happen. Instead, you will see Cruz talking about how he supports the Paul Ryan Rubio ticket.

[Notorious UGCC]

I don't know a whole lot about Ted Cruz, nor do I know what he will do at the convention. Maybe he'll sell out to Romney, maybe he'll barter his support for some policy commitments, who knows, I am not exactly deep in his counsels.

Or maybe he'll get to be AG in a Romney administration.

[Notorious UGCC]

If Cruz takes the nomination from Trump and gives it to, say, Ryan, who was Romney's sop to the rabid right if you remember, then that wouldn't be so bad.

Other than the fact that Trump has already split the party and may drive some of his supporters to Hillary.

Now *there's* a fruitful field for conspiracy theories!

[John]

If Cruz takes the nomination from Trump and gives it to, say, Ryan, who was Romney's sop to the rabid right if you remember, then that wouldn't be so bad.

Paul Ryan, the guy who has Speaker gave Obama every single thing he wanted in the budget. Yeah, he wouldn't be so bad.

[Notorious UGCC]

If he did that then the establishment types will go for someone a bit fresher.

[Chipper Morning Wood]

I've known a couple of Lizard People, and they are rather benign. Unless you are a hamster....

[LynchPin1477]

Because he thinks he can win and the kind of people who run for president probably aren't into self doubt? Because he thinks there is still a good chance Trump will have an epic meltdown? Because he thinks that once Kasich drops out he'll get more support?

[John]

He knows he can't win. He can't get to a majority on the 1st ballot. I assume he can do math. And he has no chance on a second vote. He will be the second place finisher. He has no claim on the nomination and no way in hell are the powers that be going to screw Trump over only to be stuck with Cruz. IF they screw Trump they will get someone they want.

Cruz will not be the nominee.

[LynchPin1477]

Well why haven't you told him yet?? He'd probably pay good money for the advice of someone who understands politics so well.

[John]

Which part of "Cruz knows this" do you have a hard time understanding?

[LynchPin1477]

The part where you know what he knows.

[John]

I can't read his mind. But I can see what he sees. Yeah, maybe he is dumb as a post and thinks an open convention will elect him. I doubt that however. I can only operate on the assumption that he is neither delusional nor stupid. If you think he is and thus believe he doesn't realize what is obviously true, then I don't know, maybe you know something about him I don't. Or maybe you are an idiot. I can't say.

[LynchPin1477]

I cleared this up for you above. There are several obvious possibilities and probably more that aren't obvious to anyone not in the race. He's spending other people's money, so why not wait it out as long as that money is flowing and see where things land? It's goddamn rational, actually.

[SIV]

Whose money he's spending is why Cruz should know he's gonna get screwed out of the nomination. I'm sure he thinks the establishment is going to give him their blessing and he'll get the nom on a 2nd or third or whatever ballot. Trump is the only R who can win. He has rabid enthusiastic support and the outside the insiders "NeverTrump" Rs are exactly the sort who will hold their nose and take one for the TEAM to stop the donks.

[B. Woodrow Chippenhaus]

From what I understand, Cruz's ground game is actually pretty good. He's going around making sure delegates who are pledged to Trump are people who support him and will vote for him once they are unbound.

Whether or not the RNC allows that to happen is another matter.

[DarrenM]

Even if Cruz does not get the nomination, getting enough support could make him a player in national politics in the future while remaining in the Senate. It's not solely about the nomination. Many politicians will take a run for President without any good hope of actually winning in order to advance themselves in other ways. How many candidates did the primaries start with after all? How many of *them* had a reasonable chance at the nomination?

[Hrimnir]

I

[Bill Dalasio]

Why do you say he has no chance on the second vote? Who out there is saying, "You know, if I can't get my guy, I want Donald Trump."? For the life of me, I can't see anyone. Everyone in the GOP who can tolerate Trump is already voting for him. And a lot of GOP rank and file are going to be looking at a possible Trump candidacy as having some pretty awful down-ballot consequences. Honestly, I'd rank Cruz's chances better than Trump's on the second ballot.

[SIV]

Everyone in the GOP who can tolerate Trump is already voting for him.

Not true. Polling consistently shows Trump gets approximately half of Cruz or Kasich voters if their man drops out.

[BYODB]

And that is because their only other options at that point would be to vote for Hillary Clinton SIV. So how does that prove anything?

[Zunalter]

Per PPP:

Trump's polling at 42% to 32% for Ted Cruz and 22% for John Kasich. Kasich's continued presence in the race really is providing a boost to Trump- in a head to head match up he would lead Cruz only 46-44, as Kasich voters would move to Cruz over Trump by a 51-23 spread. In a head to head with Kasich there would be little effect on Trump's overall advantage, with Trump leading 52/40 in such a scenario.

"

SIV: Not true. Polling consistently shows Trump gets approximately half of Cruz or Kasich voters if their man drops out.

"
Citation needed.

[Bill Dalasio]

So why is he running?

It is not hard to figure out.

You're arguing that he would want to be in the running as a spoiler on behalf of people that hate him. That doesn't make any sense. A much more likely scenario is that, contrary to you, Cruz thinks he can win a convention fight. And I don't think he's necessarily wrong about that. Unlike Trump, Cruz has positioned himself very well as a lot of people's second choice. Sure the Party Poobahs don't like him. But a lot of the delegates aren't the Party Poobahs. And a lot of them just don't like Donald Trump.

[John]

I don't see how that will ever happen. Time will tell Bill. If Cruz wins a convention fight, I will admit you are right. But if August comes and Cruz is out campaigning on behalf of the Romney Rubio or Ryan Rubio ticket, I will be sure to point out how stupid and naive you were. Why do you think Cruz is a good guy and not a craven piece of shit like the rest of them? His wife is making millions on Wall Street. He is a hack lawyer who made his career in the Bush DOJ. To the extent he has ever stood up for things, it has always been things that got him attention and advanced his political career. What about his past makes you think he is any different than the rest of them?

[Bill Dalasio]

I doubt he is particularly different from any other politician. I do think his political philosophy is more consistent with my own. But, that's beside the point.

You're writing Cruz off as unable to win the nomination. More to the point, you're writing him off as knowing that he's unable to win the nomination. That's central to your claim that he's a spoiler. But, being a spoiler for people dead at odds with you makes a lot less sense than thinking you can win a convention floor fight.

[John]

Being a spoiler for people who can help make you wife millions and can over look their differences with you in the Senate and let you get a few things you want, makes perfect sense. The establishment could make life very easy for Cruz. As someone pointed out below, if Cruz doesn't win, he might have a tough future. Having the establishment owe him a big favor makes that future a lot brighter.

[Bill Dalasio]

As you yourself pointed out Heidi Cruz is already a VP at Goldman. Cruz is a Supreme Court litigator (a successful one at that) at Morgan Lewis. And he'd be, at worst, an ex-Senator. I really don't think that they really need much in the way of big favors to have a pretty damned bright future.

[John]

Bill,

Life is all about expectations. He would no longer be a senator and no longer matter in politics. For whatever reason the guy is hated in the Senate. He would be useless on K street. And even if he wasn't no one wants to be on Kstreet when they can have real power in government. You don't understand how these people think. If Cruz thought a life counting his millions was worth living, he wouldn't have gotten into politics.

He will sell out to the establishment and do as he is told. His price might be a little higher than most. But he will do it. You watch. He is doing it now.

[Hrimnir]

If once you are shown to be dead wrong about this, you agree to give me your addr, i will freezer package and mail you crow to eat. I promise.

[Intraveneous Woodchipper]

Ew...

[Gadfly]

Cruz's people have recently been working hard at securing delegates who will vote for him even when unbound, so it's unlikely he's going to roll over for the establishment without a fight. If his team manages to get enough people on the rules committee they can keep the eligibility rules tight such that the only options for the unbound delegates are Trump or Cruz, in which case he'd win. It's a long shot, for sure, but it looks like Cruz is taking that gamble. With all of the bridges he's burnt in Washington already it's not like he has anything to lose by going for broke.

[John]

He has also burned a lot of bridges in Texas. He basically hasn't done shit as a Senator except grandstand and the voters there are starting to notice. So, you are right, he has nothing to lose. And I am not sure he wins a one on one fight with Trump even.

[BYODB]

Actually, that is factually untrue. Why do you hate the truth, John? Do you live in Texas? I sure do, and if nothing else Cruz torpedoed the gang of 8 bill. Is that just 'grandstanding' in your book?

Don't misunderstand, Cruz is a politician like any other but calling him out for relatively minor things as some kind of defense of Trump is ludicrous to the point where your cognitive dissonance will soon shatter your fillings.

[BYODB]

So basically, you can't see the forest for the tree's. All you care about is the primary, and the general election can just go fuck itself and let Hillary win?

Sounds good, but couldn't you just vote for Hillary directly? Is this some advanced form of social signal?

[Notorious UGCC]

Trump is a New York liberal who engages in S&M play with the media - the media would hate it if Trump left the scene, and Trump would hate it if the media ignored him.

He's basically FDR or some other New Deal Democrat - except that many New Deal Democrats were socially conservative in public.

His voters have legitimate beefs with the establishment, but they got bait-and-switched...Trump is just more of the same only louder. Obama without the humility.

[John]

Maybe. Trump has never help office. So no one knows what he would do. Republicans have and they are exactly as you describe Trump. The first thing the next Republican President will do, if it is not Trump, is make a deal on amnesty. The second thing he will do walk away from repealling Obamacare. Then they will get down to the serious business of stealing and getting some more boots on the ground in the Middle East.

Have you lived in the cave for the last 15 years? If not, how can you not realize how idiotic the claims "but Trump is a liberal" sound?

[Notorious UGCC]

OK, he's the kind of conservative who liked eminent domain, thinks his prochoice sister would make a good Supreme Court justice, belatedly declared himself prolife and promptly scored an own-goal and gave his supposed prolife allies a black eye, is sympathetic to single payer, etc.

And I don't get the idea that he's much of a noninterventionist in foreign policy. He criticized the Iraq War, but so did President Peace Prize.

I'd have to know who the "establishment candidate" is going to be before I pronounce him/her to be worse than Trump. Maybe if they nominate Caitlyn Jenner.

[John]

Every single one of them will be worse than Trump, because every one of them will bring in the Bush people to fill their administration. And every single one of them, including Cruz is drooling at the thought of selling out on amnesty. It amazes me that Trump has caused people on here to be so deranged they have started believing in Republicans.

[Notorious UGCC]

"believing in Republicans" is a bit of a stretch in my case.

I kind of believed in Rand Paul, but with him out of the picture, I have to choose the best of a bad lot.

I don't know whose people Trump will bring in - the only candidate he mentioned was his prochoice sister.

Even if we assume Cruz is a placeholder for "establishment candidate to be named later," that doesn't mean the establishment will try to foist Jeb on the country. They will go for someone with *some* kind of qualification and *some* experience appealing outside the beltway.

The establishment are retarded, but they have a certain degree of cleverness, and certain facts, if pounded hard enough into their heads, are going to occur to them - like they'll need to look to someone who doesn't lick their boots fulltime.

[Notorious UGCC]

Also, they're incompetent enough to accidentally nominate a qualified candidate.

[John]

You under estimate how stupid they are. Beyond that, any candidate they put forward won't mean a word of what they say. Once in office, they will act exactly as I am saying.

[Notorious UGCC]

By this time, the candidates are so bad it's a question, not of finding a crusader who will Fight For Us, but of moving the Overton Window so that good policies become more thinkable, and opportunistic politicians seriously consider such policies.

But some politicians are closed off in advance to good policies - you choose among the remaining ones the candidate you think would be willing to do the right thing if put under enough pressure.

Really, what guarantees are there?

"Put not your trust in princes" - Psalm 146:3

"No matter how you slice it, it's still baloney" - some other psalm I don't have a cite for right now

"

[John]

But some politicians are closed off in advance to good policies - you choose among the remaining ones the candidate you think would be willing to do the right thing if put under enough pressure.

Don't you understand, all of the pressure will be on them to do the wrong thing. All of Washington is built to seduce them and ensure they do the wrong thing.

[Notorious UGCC]

I get it - I'm not predicting victory.

But neither to I want to get all Denethorian and assume in advance all is lost.

[John]

They are better off losing than having someone who won't give them amnesty. And they know that.

[CPRM]

I think you're wearing your tinfoil hat wrong, and it is baking your brain like a potato. Your argument is basically, " Trump will Trump the Trump because the Trump won't Trump. But if Trump doesn't Trump the Trump then the Trump will Trump the Trump, unless Cruz Trumps the Trump, but the HILLARSANDERZ!!!!111!!!!1111!!!

Paranoid Trump, you've had too man Trump Berries. why don't you Trump for a Trump and Trump down.

[Hrimnir]

How much Alex Jones koolaid do you drink on a daily basis?

[BYODB]

Wow, so Cruz wants to sell out on Amnesty? I guess when he did literally the opposite of what you say he wants to do, that was a guy you think is stupid playing three dimensional chess in his spare time?

John, are you actually Donald Trump? I mean, seriously? Is this Trump trolling us?

[american socialist]

God, there's nothing worse than watching Turd Sandwich trying to sound presidential. Can he desparately pander a little more. Trump 2016!

[Bill Dalasio]

But enough about Bernie Sanders...

[John]

American Socialist wants his national socialist Bill.

[Pompey]

Sorry I couldn't understand anything over all that RACISM, actual racist shitbag.

[B. Woodrow Chippenhaus]

Speaking of neo-communistas...

[Chipper Morning Wood]

"God, there's nothing worse than watching Turd Sandwich trying to sound presidential. Can he desparately pander a little more. That's why I support Giant Douche for President." - american socialist

[Smilin' Joe Fission]

Baby Trudeau and Hillary running the show in North America... What a time to be alive.

[Spencer]

*wretch*

[John]

I think Hillary is going to get indicted. Obama is going to indict her. Think about it. Obama knew Hillary was running the private server, knew I was blatantly illegal and let her do it. Why did he do that? He did it because he knew it would allow him to end Hillary's political career whenever the time was right. If he had indicted her last year, then someone else gets in the race and wins the nomination. Obama wants an open convention so he can get whomever he wants as the nominee. The way to do that is indict Hillary after it is too late, which is what he is going to do.

[Juvenile Bluster]

If she does get indicted, it's not going to be until it can be guaranteed that Sanders won't be the nominee.

[Juvenile Bluster]

Which is basically what you said.

I need to learn how to read.

[John]

Remember Obama is the guy who got elected by challenging the signatures of his primary opponent' ballot petition. Letting Hillary have that server knowing full well that he could one day end her career with it, is an absolute Chicago move. It also shows just how stupid Hillary is to fall for it.

[Haybob]

I think Hillary will make some sort of backroom deal and get a slap on the wrist. She may have already made it and they are just waiting until she is officially the nominee to make the announcement. If they were going to bring her down with some serious charges they would have already come.

[John]

No. If they do that, Sanders might get the nomination. They bring the charges once Sanders can't win. And if they were going to do a deal, they would have done it long ago so that it was old news by the elections. Jesus, you don't have her plead guilty the August before the election.

No, she is going to get indicted. She won't be the nominee. You watch.

[Aloysious]

That is one prediction I hope you are 100% right on.

[Sidd Finch v2.01]

If Obama had shown any ability to think one step ahead, this would be pretty convincing.

[soflarider]

Not so sure about that. He's got the politics thing down. Governing? Not so much.

[Hrimnir]

You know what else will happen the week Obama indicts Hillary? We will cure cancer, build a space colony on mars, and all Muslims will pronounce their unfettered love for the state of Israel.

[DarrenM]

I doubt he'll indict her, but it does create some nice leverage.

[american socialist]

Yich... Awful.

[Jerryskids]

Jesus Christ is Bernie Sanders a crazy old fart. Is this the glorious future of the Left?

[Quincy.]

Yes. It's yelling at clouds from now on.

[LynchPin1477]

No. The frightening future is someone who comes along that says everything Sanders says but is smart enough to either not really believe it, or to at least not sound so stupid while spouting it.

[Hrimnir]

Yep. I find it really interesting that Bernie's most ardent supporters are 18-34 white women who have been utterly and completely indoctrinated by marxism in college.

I've literally not met or spoken to a bern victim who wasn't a full blown marxist.

[american socialist]

Fuck this guy. $1= 1 vote.

[american socialist]

I gave 500 bucks to sanders. Does anyone know where I can donate 20 bucks to trump. I want to see Canadian Turd Sandwich cry a little and go home to his wife, who keeps nodding at him as if she's giving him a blowjob.

[Notorious UGCC]

Wow, you hate Cruz almost as much as John does!

(I'm just messing with ya, John)

[american socialist]

Yeah, but he'll vote for him because he is better than hitlery. You'll notice I don't make that argument.

[John]

I liked Cruz for a long time. But at some point he just started getting on my nerves. I don't think he believes in anything. He is a total creature of Washington.

[Notorious UGCC]

I can't rule it out, but it would have to have been a really sudden reversal.

[John]

Its what he has always been. His entire career is an act. It was his way of getting ahead.

[Notorious UGCC]

I was thinking of your "creature of Washington" remark. That would have to be more recent.

[John]

Not all creatures are the same. Some creatures prey on the other creatures.

[Notorious UGCC]

Some creatures taste great with the right sauce.

Thank you and good night, try the tofu, don't forget to tip the wait staff, if you're willing to be complicit in capitalistic oppression.

[Hrimnir]

You know the level of tinfoil hattery required to believe that Cruz is a creature of washington is actually mind blowing, i'm talking some scientology level shit. The only reason the establishment is playing even remotely nice with Cruz is because they thought that Trump, while bombastic and not really conservative (not that they ever gave a shit about that), could be made to comply. Once Trump went full retard and they realized they were dealing with a loose cannon, they realized that Cruz, who was someone they hated more than Trump, would be someone they could rely on to be predictable in his actions.

There are literally mountains of evidence that can be easily researched that show that the establishment despises Cruz. I mean absolutely fucking hates him.

[soflarider]

It's funny to read comments from people claiming that Cruz in the "establishment candidate".

[SFC B]

Yeah, this is really the strangest bit from John. Cruz has YEARS of being antagonistic to the GOPe. He called McConnell a liar on the Senate floor. He has shown them some apparently sincere contempt, not the play contempt they usually engage in but everyone goes home friends.

[BYODB]

The fact they say this, and then talk about Trump as if he's great is the really mind blowing part. Trump is on record saying he could work with people like Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid. He has bragged about extra martial affairs. He's solid on zero issues. Most things he promises are things that are literally and/or physically impossible.

Cruz was a tea party candidate and, as near as I can tell, has actively worked against the Republican party in the Senate (If nothing else, the Gang of 8). Not a great guy, or a libertarian, but if you're going to eat a shit sandwich you might as well enjoy what little garnish is available.

[Richie]

Bernie appreciates the donation. He will continue to inspire

[straffinrun]

They only come in red, so no foul.

[coloraDOOM]

I saw a picture of that from the front. The audi didn't have a front plate, which would be required in vermont. Unless it was bought right then or something.
It does look like him.

[Richie]

I dug a little bit more:

http://i.imgur.com/N6xaxM0.jpg

[coloraDOOM]

Just wanted to play a quick devil's advocate.

[Richie]

No doubt, and it's fake. The important question is "what if?"

[kbolino]

I gave 500 bucks to sanders.

I'm not sure what's worse...

1. That you gave such a large sum to a political campaign, like a moron;
2. That you owe far more than that to someone else, so you continue to cheat people;
3. That you would willingly advertise this fact.

You are on a one-man quest to prove just how vapid and slimy socialists are. Truly, I must applaud the effort.

[straffinrun]

The Bern thinks breadlines are a guud thing.

[lap83]

I have family members who are voting for him and I have no difficulty avoiding political discussion, because it would be impossible without blatantly insulting their intelligence. (they don't know history, economics, logic, they've been duped by some of the most evil minds humanity has sever known, etc.) I don't want to sound mean. So this election cycle has been pretty peaceful for me. It's nice. Just smile and nod.

[lap83]

*ever

[Hamster of Doom]

some of the most evil minds...

Human resources?

*thousand-yard stare*

[straffinrun]

I've got 2 sisters constantly pumping Bernie on FB and 1 brother pumping Trump. Their arguments are idiotic. They all agree that I'm the worst, however.

[Slammer]

"I've got 2 sisters constantly pumping Bernie"

Enough with the euphemisms goddamit!

[Trials and Trippelations]

i wonder what Bernie hand lotion is like

[Robert]

At least we know there's only 1 kind.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

'I've got 2 sisters constantly pumping Bernie'

Phrasing.

[NoVaNick]

Here's what I predict will happen. Trump will get the nomination, even if he doesn't hit the magic number, because as much as much of the GOP can't stand him, they do not want to have a huge blowout fight on the public stage, kind of like the married couple who know they are both cheating but will never confront each other about it because of what it would do to the kids. The GOP will try as much as possible to keep an air of "unity"...

Regarding Hillary, she too will get the nomination even with a cloud of indictment hanging over her. She will win of course, but will probably resign within the first two years because her past will finally bite her. Then, her VP, likely some inoffensive "moderate" douchebag like Tim Kaine (completely ineffective former Va. governor), will take the helm.

The good news is that both parties will be irreparably damaged at this point.

[Richie]

I agree.

[JeremyR]

There's no way the GOP unifies. There is too much bad blood thanks to Trump.

[Glide]

I feel like Trump would (ironically) be the least destructive nominee because at least it's not a party screwjob, he honestly won the most votes.

But I don't know if we can count on the Stupid Party to play it safe in that fashion. Also I think President Clinton is a near certainty now with or without Trump, so I'm in schadenfreude mode and just looking forward to a good show.

[Kevin Sorbos Manful Locks]

OT: Book club.

I'm looking to expand my econ library. I've read some Bastiat, Hayek, Hazlitt, and Sowell. Any further recommendations in this vein?

[Sidd Finch v2.01]

Smith, Ricardo, Mises, Friedmans Milton and David

[CPRM]

I have a Liberty Vox audio version of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations, quite good. Liberty Vox and Online Library of Liberty are great resources.

[CPRM]

oops, it's LibriVox. Free audio books. All in the public domain. Which includes classical liberal writings, and a whole host of other works.

[Tak Kak]

If you could handle the awful writing of Hayek then von Mises will be a breeze, Bob Murphy of the Mises Institute published some helpful guides for his work as well. Following him I'd recommend Fritz Machlup, Murray Rothbard, (and maybe Ludwig Lachmann) for some slightly different takes.

For some still living economists try Lawrence White, Peter Klein, or Richard Wagner. (I think they're all still alive, anyways)

[PapayaSF]

Have you read How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff? Quick, funny, essential.

[Kevin Sorbos Manful Locks]

My cup runneth over. Thanks for the suggestions guys.

[CPRM]

Wisconsin is odd. It is both the birthplace of the Republican party, and the birthplace of the progressive movement. The two most populace cities (in the south) are Democrat, but so are the least populace counties (in the north), everything in between is conservative. It is the birthplace of McCarthyism (he was from a town 15 miles from me) and also home of the current RNC chair Reince Priebus and GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan. It's an odd state.

[Marty Comanche]

And Milwaukee had a Socialist (big 'S') mayor for 24 years.

[Cyto]

So they are going to change the Republican convention rules that they changed last year to block Paul in order to allow an establishment candidate to win this time around?

And who is going to vote for this change? Don't rule changes have to be approved by the delegates? Delegates who are largely pledged to Trump and Cruz? Delegates who Cruz has been trying to stack with loyalists? Delegates that the libertarian paulites have been trying to infiltrate for years? These are the guys you think are going to sign on to a rule change that will ensure that some other guy gets the nod, not their guy?

Yeah, that'll happen. The only way that rule change gets through is if nobody is paying attention and they try to sneak it into some unanimous consent voice vote. Cruz and Trump both benefit from the status quo this time around. They'll be on top of the rules votes and coordinate the defeat of any changes designed to hurt them.

It is my understanding that the way the rules are written, only Trump and Cruz will qualify for the nomination, sans a rule change. And since a rule change would eliminate this advantage, I don't see that happening absent a major scandal.

[SteveGinGTO]

NO, the rules are NOT decided by the voting of the delegates.

Rules changes are made by The Rules Committee, which meets just before the convention opens.

[Calidissident]

I love how the same people who would be all on the "Libertarians need to get behind Cruz! He's anti-establishment and pro-small government" train are now going after him just because he's in Trump's way.

[You Sound Like a Prog (MJG)]

He's cracking, dude.

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[simplybe]

The Republican elite changed the rules so you had to win 8 States to block Ron Paul at the convention and if they change them back to allow Kasich or Paul Ryan to be the nominee it will the last time any Republican ever gets my vote. I detest Trump but if Cruz or Trump doesn't get the nomination I will vote for Hillary Clinton who I view as one rung lower than than Hilter.

[bassjoe]

They will likely not be able to change the rules at the convention. They had ample opportunity to do so (quietly) in January but were still in deep denial that Trump (or Cruz, for that matter) would emerge as the person with the most delegates. Now that delegates are actually being chosen, the Trump and Cruz loyalists amongst them will likely have more than enough power to prevent any rule change that allows a Kasich or Paul Ryan to emerge as a white-knight hero.

And the Republican Establishment will only have themselves to blame. Like you said, they changed the rule in 2012 just to prevent Ron Paul supporters from making a completely pointless if slightly embarrassing ruckus on the floor (RP didn't have a snowball's chance in hell at becoming the nominee regardless of the rules).

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[SteveGinGTO]

A poorly informed article...

1.) "Wisconsin has a complicated delegate system you can read about here if you like."

WRONG. Wisconsin's proportional primary is the same as all the other Democratic proportional primaries. X or Y delegates for each congressional district and Z for At-Large, state-wide. The rounding is standardized for all the states, too.

A DUMB AND ILL-INFORMED STATEMENT.

2.) The whole last paragraph ("It so...") says a lot of nothing.

The basic facts are that
a.) WI has a lot of college students (wanting free tuition),
b.) WI has a POC level of only 10.5% (the national average is 27.8%) AND
c.) It was an OPEN PRIMARY (allowing independents to vote)

all put WI square in Sanders's wheelhouse.

And even THEN he only got a 1.26-to-1.00 delegate win ratio, meaning he fell 0.96-to-1 behind the minimum he needed to stay even in the final race to 2383 delegates.

SO: Sanders lost ground AGAIN. AND STILL CALLED IT A WIN.

Reminder:

It's not about states - it's about WHAT, kiddies?

That's right . . . DELEGATES.

And 2383.

Sanders winning these powder puff whitey states AT THIS STAGE OF THE CAMPAIGN is like the San Diego Padr.es being 26.5 games behind on the 20th of September and winning three games in a row.

In other words, WHO CARES?

Hillary is so close to clinching, and Sanders just gave her 38 more delegates to take her within 601 of clinching.

Something he can't afford to do.

A win isn't a win if it doesn't get you closer, faster to 2383

[onebornfree]

"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal." -Emma Goldman.1869 ? 1940.

Elections are "an advance auction of stolen goods." H.L. Mencken

Bottom line: It really makes no difference which clown gets elected, the deep state will carry on exactly as before.

In other words:" New boss same as the old boss" as Pete Townsend once said.

Or, "Dream On"?:

"......In your dream, Donald Trump is not a fraud,
In your dream, Sanders is not a fraud,
In your dream, all the rest are not frauds,
In your dream, Obama is not a fraud,
In your dream, Reagan was not a fraud,
In your dream, all the rest were not frauds,

In your dream, the constitution was not a scam,
In your dream, the Supreme court is not a scam,
In your dream, 9/11 was not a scam"
In your dreams, the war on terror is not a scam,
In your dream, al -qaeda was not a scam,
In your dream I.S.I.S. is not a scam"

Lyrics excerpted from "Dreams [Anarchist Blues]":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMXtoUtXrTU

Regards, onebornfree
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onebornfreeatyhoodotcom

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