Last Minute Encouragement for Rand Paul: He Does Seem to Do Way Better with Generally Unpolled Cell Phone Users
Corie W. Stephens at Rare sums up some interestingly encouraging last minute polling news via Real Clear Politics. Paul and his campaign have long insisted that the majority of polls were missing their people.

On Sunday, Real Clear Politics added a poll to their election average conducted by Opinion Savvy, which includes voters contacted on their cell phones….
In this poll, the data provided by likely Republican caucus-goers is broken into voters contacted by landline versus those reached on their mobile devices.
Of voters polled on cell phones, Paul is tied for first place with 26.5 percent of the vote. Paul wins outright among voters between the ages of 18-29, capturing 22.5 percent of their vote.
Overall, this poll gives Paul 8.6 percent of the vote, placing him in a tie for 4th (within the poll's margin of error).
My reporting on Rand's campaign and its chances from this morning.
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5%
That's your bet? I bet he gets 3rd no matter what the % split. Beers.
Third is where I think he lands too. At the end of the day, Bernie is going to take away too many college kids for Paul to even have a chance at 1st.
Wait, is that how it works? I thought Republican and Democrat caucuses were separate.
They are separate and you have to be registered democrat or republican to take part. But many college students are registering for the first time, or they can change their registration. So, if Bernie has more energy in that demographic than Paul, it could hurt him.
Right. You can only caucus for one party.
I think he could double that.
Ya!! Rand Paul for President!
Rand Paul FTW!
Hopes officially gotten up. Congrats.
At what point does the difficulty polling cell phones become a problem for pollining reliability?
Like, my parents are about 60. They have a home phone as part of their tv/internet bundle, but they NEVER answer it. And they aren't unique in their age, and people of that age tend to vote more.
It gets more dramatic the younger you go. So, that being the case, at what point does this cause a total electoral prediction misfire?
I'd set the over/under at 2026.
There are already lots of studies showing that polling is becoming less and less predictable. Mobile phones is one problem, but there are many others. Polling companies have various ways to address this. And if they cannot do so effectively they will eventually go out of business.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August! -Jack Elliot.
Continue staying positive, Brian.
How convenient that this poll is not released until today. Why the fuck weren't these being done the whole time?
Not everybody does cell phones, and I'm sure most will continue not to do them.
A 4th place finish would be huge for Paul, as would a double digit percentage of the votes. I'm not going to get my hopes up for anything better at this point, but I feel a teeny tiny glimmer of excitement.