Donald Trump

Donald Trump Is Leading in the Polls. He's Still Not Going to Win the Nomination.

Primary polling taken this far out tells us virtually nothing about who will ultimately triumph.

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Donald Trump
Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons

If you're paying attention at all, you've probably heard that Donald Trump is leading the field for the Republican presidential nomination. And indeed, a new poll from CNN and ORC puts him in first place, capturing 19 percent of the vote. (Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is at 15 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is at 10 percent; everyone else is in the single digits.) Other recent polls have had Trump ahead as well.

A word of caution, however, to anyone who might be tempted to conclude that he could actually receive his party's nomination: Horserace surveys conducted six months before the voting even starts tell us virtually nothing about who will ultimately win. 

Trump is really hoping people will take these recent data seriously. Here's why you should be ignoring them instead.

1. The vast majority of people haven't decided who they're voting for yet. As I explained in a piece for Reason's July issue,  polls taken this far out are subject to dramatic fluctuations. And if you don't believe me, take a look at this chart from HuffPost Pollster.com portraying national polling averages during the 2012 primary race:

2012 GOP primary polling averages over time

The truth is that voters in July 2015 haven't yet taken the time to learn about and weigh the relative merits of the different candidates hoping to be elected president in November 2016. Some 42 percent of respondents in that CNN/ORC poll cited earlier had never even heard of Scott Walker. A third was not familiar with Marco Rubio. 

You know who they had heard of? Donald Trump. And at this early stage, name recognition alone is enough to make a difference. From my print piece:

"When you have a lot of candidates who are poorly known, there are events that can happen that might temporarily alter the snap preferences people give when interviewed," [polling expert] Mark Blumenthal explains. "A lot of the people who will vote in the primaries haven't thought about this yet [and] don't know the names of all the candidates. Yet when intercepted in the midst of doing whatever they're doing and read a list of names, they will try to pick one…If there was a lot of news this week about a candidate jumping into the race, some people are going to pick that name just because they heard it recently."

A reality TV star everyone has heard of but hardly anyone likes is far more likely to be 2016's version of Herman Cain than its version of Mitt Romney. And make no mistake about it—despite being in first place in that poll, Trump's unfavorables were simultaneously off the charts.

CNN/ORC

2. National polls badly oversimplify the American electoral process. Most of the surveys being reported on right now are national surveys. That means a person in South Carolina, whose primary contest is slated for February 20, is just as likely to be included in the poll as someone from New Mexico, who won't get to vote until June. But those two responses are not created equal. From my piece again:

Because states don't all vote on the same day, the outcome of one election invariably alters expectations and thus choices in subsequent surveys. "You could measure voter preferences right now in Texas all you want," says Mark Blumenthal, a former pollster who now runs the HuffPost Pollster site, "but I guarantee you they're going to be different after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina than they are right now…"

Giuliani famously discovered this in 2008, when his strategy of ignoring the early primary states and focusing on Florida and the Super Tuesday elections ended in spectacular failure. McCain and Romney, his top opponents, were able to pick up momentum with wins in Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan. Meanwhile, Giuliani could not recover from the perception that his campaign had collapsed even before voters in the Sunshine State, where he'd concentrated his resources, went to the polls.

3. Iowa doesn't matter as much as Iowans would like you to believe. What do Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee have in common? You guessed it—they were the last two winners of the Iowa GOP caucus. Neither, you may recall, went on to win his party's nomination.

Iowans also had a track record of flirting with losing candidates during their quadrennial "straw polls," which were a beloved tradition until they were canceled this year for causing too much of a distraction. Held six times going back to 1979, the winner of the straw poll went on to win the nomination only twice. The 2011 victor? Now-retired Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. 

All of which is a long way of saying that Trump's performance in state-specific Iowa polls probably doesn't mean much.

4. Shooting from the hip will only get you so far. One of Trump's selling points is that he says what he thinks—no matter how offensive. That can be entertaining and even refreshing for a while. But there is a limit to the number of times voters will abide a candidate for the highest office in the land putting his foot in his mouth. Earlier this year, neurosurgeon and presidential hopeful Ben Carson was dinged for saying homosexuality is a choice. On July 18, Trump similarly caused an uproar when he suggested that Sen. John McCain (R–Ariz.) is only considered a "war hero" because he was captured during Vietnam. 

Not all gaffes matter in politics. But there's some evidence this one will. An NBC/Marist poll of New Hampshire voters was in the middle of being conducted when he made the comment about McCain. In interviews conducted beforehand, 26 percent of voters said they were supporting Trump. In interviews conducted after, that number plummeted to 14 percent. A drop that large in a matter of days without any changes in polling methodology is never a good sign.

And with six months until the first primary contests and a year until the Republican convention, the real issue for Trump isn't the dumb stuff he's already said—it's all the dumb stuff he's yet to say that we can all be sure is coming.

NEXT: Uber Learns That As a New Company, To Be Is To Lobby

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  1. ABOUT TIME! Thanks, Reason!

    /Trumpfix

    1. How? This was pristine, virgin white screen. I typed quickly and boom, the Almanian Woodchipper beat me to the punch. I hang my head in shame.

      1. Looks like your pristine, virgin white screen

        [dons sunglasses]

        has been Trumped.

        1. I hope your woodchipper
          [dons safety glasses]
          gets clogged with Trump.

          1. Oh, now we see the violence inherent in the system!

    2. Yeah, finally, now I can undo this combover and wash the dust and ashes out of my hair.

    3. Al, maybe you’d enjoy this more. I know I do.

      1. Drunk Kenny Rogers was one of the best things about MadTV. Along with the UBS Guy, Real @#$^$% Talk, etc etc etc

        1. “You gotta know when to fold ’em, BITCH!”

          Will Sasso deserves a fucking comedy award for creating his Kenny Rogers character. Especially since it started out as a rather milquetoast Kenny Rogers impression and then morphed into Insane Drunk Nutbar Kenny Rogers. The Kenny Rogers Jackass skits are some of the funniest shit I’ve ever seen out of an SNL/MADTV type show.

          1. His Steven Seagal and The Rock are also classic. I still laugh at “The Rock forgot his lines! Let’s do that again.”

            1. How about when he and Frank Caliendo do DeNiro and Pachino going into an ice cream shop and deciding what to order…for six minutes?

              1. YES!

              2. Sherbet is for little girls.

                1. How can you forget “The I-Rack”?

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rw2nkoGLhrE

    4. Even with as bad of a campaign as Hillary is running she will handily beat whoever the republicans run for the simple fact that the GOP is so splintered and many will stay home as in the last 2 presidential elections.

      IT’S ALL OVER FOLKS! And the socialists have won.

  2. You’re FIRED. /The Donald

  3. In the meantime, Rand Paul has all but disappeared from the scene. I mean, besides an occasional sighting of Rand throwing stuff into woodchippers, you would hardly know that the has announced his candidacy.

    Almost every story I read on the GOP race, besides here, Rand is not even mentioned. They’ll go so far down the ladder as to make mention of Santorum, Herman Cain, and Rick Perry, and still no mention of Rand Paul.

    I think that Rand is smart enough to know that there is zero advantage to leading in polls at this point.

    1. Both sides are scared of Rand…almost makes me want him to go all out and go 3rd party.

      1. (which might lead to Hillary becoming elected and the conclusion of the American experiment, but I’m a big believer in humanity so maybe it will work)

    2. If you check the RealClearPolitics head to head polls you’ll find that despite a near zero media presence RP is closer to Hillary than any other Republican. He’s down 4 points while the One True Living Trump is down by 16 points.

      This was true of his father against Obama too but no one paid any attention to those polls either, at least not until Romney got as close as Ron Paul did.

    3. Santorum and Cain have about as much chance of bagging the nomination as the woodchipper. Perry *might* get a cabinet position in the event of a Republican win. Anyway, if none of those works out, I have an electric lawnmower in my garage. We should do polls on that.

    4. Luckily this magazine spends a healthy part of its day criticizing him.

  4. Keep talkin’, Reason. I ain’t votin’ for him.

    1. IT’S WORRRRKING!!!

      /Lo Pan

      1. YOU ARE FRESH!

        /Lo Pan minion

  5. Looks like someone

    [dons sunglasses]

    took a Trump on he GOP.

  6. We can blame the Iowa caucus on Jimmy Carter.

    1. I blame Bush

  7. The reason the Donald is getting so much attention is that he’s such a nice refreshing break from the typical political boors. Of course he’s not serious, but a lot of people take him seriously because well, American is full of retards who will fall for virtually anything. He’s entertaining. Even I find him amusing for attacking such asshats as John McCain and being so unapologetic about it.

    1. People are tired of the establishment and he tells them to fuck off. And like a lot of “anti-establishment” politicians he is an idiot with terrible ideas.

      1. This. The people really want someone to grow a pair and stop apologizing for everything. At this point, they’re so desperate for that, that they don’t even care what the person is saying, just that they’re saying it and not apologizing for it.

    2. I don’t think he’s serious, but I’ll sure as hell put my fake vote in the poll hat if I get the opportunity.

      I’m thoroughly enjoying the fucking GOP establishment panic over this and will contribute anything I can (that isn’t actual money) just to further their suffering.

      1. will contribute anything I can (that isn’t actual money) just to further their suffering

        Even Bernie and Hillary?

        1. I would do anything, Winston. But I won’t do that. No. I won’t do that.

          1. Not even by the dashboard light?

  8. Donald Trump is a billionaire and has tapped hot ass. If you do not vote for him you are a stupid person.

    1. I am not a stupid person and I want more consistent hot ass on tap. I guess my vote is locked up.

  9. Oh sure, the GOP will flirt with others but they always go home to a Bush.

    1. Thanks for that stunning observation, Tulpy-Poo. Insightful as always.

    2. Something something Clinton something you’re a democrat hack on a libertarian board that can’t figure out that nobody here is a republican.

    3. Butthead’s a lickin them cankles!

    4. Oh sure, the GOP will flirt with others but they always go home to a Bush.

      There have been *two* Bushes in national politics – and how many Kennedys?

      Robert
      Ted
      John
      Caroline
      Joe Sr

      Just the ones elected or holding positions in Federal government.

      And don’t forget Hillary. If the Clinton’s get their second presidential nod, are you going to keep reminding us how the the DNP ‘flirts with others, but they always go home to a Clinton’?

  10. Trump’s opponents have 8% of his wealth. He’ll just outspend them, no matter how much they shriek.

    1. But as California Governor Whitman observed, it takes more than money to win an election.

    2. He doesn’t have any actual cash on hand. His net worth is meaningless.

  11. My favorite Donald Trump memory: He was giving an interview to one of those news magazine shows in the late 1990s (Dateline or 20/20 or whatever). The interviewer asked if he had any regrets and Trump said he regretted not asking out Princess Diana, basically saying he could’ve bagged her.

    1. Of course he could have! He can do anything.

  12. Filed away under “Famous Last Words”.

  13. You can’t spell “triumph” without TRUMP.

    1. Or strumpet!

    2. Brilliant. Trump: The insult comic candidate.

    3. You can’t spell Trump without “rump”.

  14. According to CNN this morning, a lot of people support Trump because he embodies the American Dream. Sadly, I think there might be something to that, but it doesn’t reflect well on the modern version of the American Dream. The Kardashians are supposed to be a cautionary tale, not aspirational figures, people. (To their credit, the other anchors did actually laugh out loud when Cuomo averred that “some people” are comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan.)

  15. National polls badly oversimplify the American electoral process

    It’s kinda hard to simplify elections under single-party rule, much less oversimplify them.

    1. Fry: These are the candidates? They sound like clones. [He looks a little harder.] Wait a minute. They are clones!

      Leela: Don’t let their identical DNA fool you. They differ on some key issues.

      Johnson: [on TV] I say your three cent titanium tax goes too far.

      Jackson: [on TV] And I say your three cent titanium tax doesn’t go too far enough!

      1. If I were registered to vote, I’d send these clowns a message by staying home on election day and dressing up like a clown!

        1. [Fry and Leela check out the Voter Apathy Party. The man sits at the booth, leaning his head on his hand.]

          Fry: Now here’s a party I can get excited about. Sign me up!

          V.A.P. Man: Sorry, not with that attitude.

          Fry: [downbeat] OK then, screw it.

          V.A.P. Man: Welcome aboard, brother!

          Fry: [excited] Alright!

          V.A.P. Man: You’re out.

        2. & get on the FBI’s watch list as a Juggalo?

          1. You’d rather be on the list for posting here?

  16. I see, Reason wants to preserve its nonprofit status by the clever device of not mentioning its favorite candidate, Rand Paul.

    1. They must have gotten lucky last time with the Gary Johnson cheer leading.

      1. Much too close to risk it again.

  17. Another article telling us that it is very important that we understand that polling data this far from any real election is utterly unimportant.

    Also = the media seems to be utterly lacking in self-awareness of the virtuous cycle they create by constantly writing articles titled ” WHO IS THIS TRUMP GUY AND WHY DO PEOPLE CARE WHAT HE THINKS?”, at least a dozen a day.

    Why, its almost as if all the attention (despite being mostly negative) they’ve given him might have something to do with his rise in the polls? Duh.

    Its also lazy work for people working summer hours. “Trump-Talk” is filler for the gaps between explaining why Hillary is above the law and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

  18. It’s not just Reason.

    After a hiatus of several decades, Berke Breathed brought back Bloom County, and the first topic he focuses on is Trump.

    And now people keep coming up to me, telling me that Trump isn’t so bad and anyway I should get a good night’s sleep, and wouldn’t it be nice if I put this new pod sculpture in my bedroom…

    1. Wow, that nap did me a world of good. I’m all better now.

      What was I thinking? Donald Trump represents the future of America and everyone should vote for him.

      It’s painless. It’s good.

      1. You weren’t more than a shell of a person to begin with.

        1. It’s a good thing I’m just a vegetable with no emotions, otherwise I’d be offended at this slur against the guy whose body I snatched.

  19. Just imagine the following horror. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. The next day, he presents Michael Bloomberg as his running mate for VP.

    Fast forward in time… President Hillary and VP Warren celebrate their victory.

    Ok, ok, I’m just putting this forward so that anything else that happens will be considered good.

    1. Even a nuclear/biochemical attack?

      1. How big of an attack are we talking about?

      2. Especially a nuclear/biochemical attack.

  20. So what? Everyone knows Trump is a joke. Even if he weren’t, does anyone believe that America would put the country in the hands of a gaudy New Yorker whose only leadership emanates from his wallet?

    The real story is how disgusted Americans are with impotent politicians. Republicans haven’t a clue. For years now they’ve been unable to do anything except be obstructionists. Even Bush#3 lacks credibility and any real message.

    1. does anyone believe that America would put the country in the hands of a gaudy New Yorker whose only leadership emanates from his wallet?

      What was FDR, chopped liver?

    2. does anyone believe that America would put the country in the hands of a gaudy New Yorker whose only leadership emanates from his wallet?

      Do you not?

    3. This post is on tulpic

    4. “they’ve been unable to do anything except be obstructionists”

      who, except a “DO SOMETHING” moron uses the term, ‘obstructionist’?

      Or do you honestly believe the main problem in america is *not enough new legislation*?

      1. Is there any political movement that would require more legislation to achieve its ends than libertarianism? Is all you allow yourself the resignation of accepting the status quo–with perhaps an arbitrary list of laws expiring automatically?

        1. “Is there any political movement that would require more legislation to achieve its ends than libertarianism?”

          Depends on the starting point, currently, yes.

          “Is all you allow yourself the resignation of accepting the status quo–with perhaps an arbitrary list of laws expiring automatically?”

          Depends on the status quo.

        2. Apparently, all you need these days is a pen and a phone, at least according to the constitutional scholar in chief you think so highly of.

        3. “Is there any political movement that would require more legislation to achieve its ends than libertarianism?

          REPEALING legislation, maybe.

          That’s the opposite of what “Do Something” people tend to have in mind

    5. Everyone knows Trump is a joke.

      So is the country he aspires to govern. Seriously, who better to lead us than a reality show star? He’s as American as mom, apple pie and the flag.

      1. So is the country he aspires to govern. Seriously, who better to lead us than a reality show star? He’s as American as mom, apple pie and the flag.

        Hear, hear!

        Seriously though, Trump as nominee would be epic lulz. Totally worth it. And if he actually won? Even better.

        He’s exactly what this goofy country deserves.

      2. Paving the way for Hector Mountain-Dew Camacho in 2020!

  21. OT: study finds private enterprise could enable a cheaper moon base than if NASA did it by itself:

    http://www.space.com/30008-moo…..eport.html

    Science types seem to be surprised.

    1. Staffed with clones of Gabrielle Drake.

  22. Um, I hate to poop in the punch bowl, but doesn’t that line chart show that the first clear poll leader ends up winning the nomination?

    1. Seems to, but I don’t think Trump is the first clear leader.

      1. Following that trend (and I think that there IS some point to that, in terms of creating policy narratives that others feel a need to respond to, as well as how the press chooses to define the race’s storyline for potential voters), the first clear leader in polling was actually probably Scott Walker a few months ago ?and Walker still seems to ping to mind among many Republicans as the natural “last man standing” candidate this time around (one of the big positives that he’s maintained all along is being effectively “everyone’s second choice,” which is huge in a large field when one expects it to begin whittling down; even his jump in the polls in late spring/early summer was when he temporarily swapped to the first choice of many who liked him as a backup).

    2. That’s true. It shows Romney leading in the July of the year before the election. Seems to me Trump is now in approximately the position Romney was then, & able to spend as much.

  23. So how about that libertarian moment? Trump and Sanders are the ones who seem to be benefitting the most from the rage against the status quo. Sanders tells the Democrats what they want to hear (more free shit!) while Trump tells the Republicans what they want to hear as well (Secure the Border! Fuck McCain! Fuck Graham!).

    Rand Paul can’t do that. His “Republican Brand sucks!” comes across more like a sell-out to the Dems. In order to get attention he is going to have something really outrageous without alienating either conservatives, libertarians or the MSM which is practically impossible.

    1. Better to offend them all. I bet he’d have poll numbers to rival Trump over night.

      1. What we need is one candidate,

        one candidate to find them…

        one candidate to offend them all,

        and in the darkness bind them.

    2. Libertarian Historicism.

      The victorious Libertarian Moment will come? eventually? someday? something? uh?

      1. I hate to quote Marx but all the “libertarian moment” stuff reminds me of his quote about the Democratic Socialists of the Second French Republic

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mountain_(1849)

        Marx again found cause for criticism, accusing The Mountain of impotently “prophesying future victories”.

        Of course Marx was one to talk with his Inevitability of History bullshit.

        1. Of course Marx was one to talk with his Inevitability of History bullshit.

          Yep, exactly who I was thinking of too, re: what this ‘Libertarian Moment’ hokum reminds me of. Glad someone else noticed the parallel.

        2. Pretty ballsy to talk trash to Gregor Clegane.

    3. Yeah he just needs to put it in simple terms for the idiots.
      Here is some simple tips, Take a picture of all the US infrastructure built in countries we bombed, then show picture of the roads in michigan.
      Next take the trillions we spent on wars, say with that money we could have built everyone in the USA a house.
      Lastly tell the USA do you really want to screw over your kids? because that is what your doing. Do you want responsible spending in .gov or do you want your children 250k in debt not including college. Once again show a 250k dollar house, that is equal to your child’s future piece of pie of USA’s debt.

      Money starts to make sense when you compare it to things one likes and wants to buy.

      He’ll just play mr. nice guy though. hoping that when he is leading in december that they dont drop his CRA”s comments back from a ways back

  24. Not all gaffes matter in politics.

    BIDEN 2016

  25. OT:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spartakiad

    Funny fact that people forget is that the Soviets didn’t participate in the Olympics until 1952. Too Bourgeois and aristocratic until Stalin realized its propaganda value. This also helps to explain the IOC’s pro-fascist sympathies.

  26. Big majority of GOP voters favors mass deportation, poll finds

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2…..cnnorc.pdf

    About 2-1 (63-34)

    1. That’s super interesting, Tulpy-Poo. About as interesting as everything else you have to say.

        1. And there it is! How did you ever get to be so interesting, Tulpy-Poo? Is it being a complete failure at life that makes you so fascinating?

        2. Someone’s getting rabid over there.

    2. Nearly everyone in this country wants to deport/jail/intern some groups. The only disagreement is who gets to be on the receiving end.

      So I double checked the poll, and funnily enough, deportation is more popular with people who identify as “Republican” than “Conservative”.

    3. 38% of respondents feel that Washington represents their views “Not at well”?

  27. I dunno, if Trump’s McCain’s “gaffe” resulted in a mere flesh wound, that’s about as gaffe-immune as I can think of. All Rick Perry had to do was say “oops.” What could be more sacred to the GOP base than the heroism of POWs? Other than, of course, the desire to expel brown people from the country. And winning presidential elections, which McCain rudely failed to do. And pretending like they didn’t stick us all with one of the most preposterous wars in history with the patriotic screeching they’ve apparently totally abandoned.

    1. What could be more sacred to the GOP base than the heroism of POWs?

      Maybe more see it the Chris Rock way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwLt4XE1i2s

    2. Nobody likes McCain. Nobody on the conservative right anyways.

      1. We need Daily Donald on HyR.

  28. “O” is for Oh shit!

    http://www.seattletimes.com/se…..rule-dies/

    1. I never could tell her, Jane Rule, Janice Rule, Janice Rand and Sally Rand apart.

    1. Thanks. That made me happy.

    2. This shift in attitudes towards gun control is every bit as interesting as the shift in marijuana legalization and gay marriage. Too bad the WaPo doesn’t realize that all three come from the same shift towards individual autonomy.

    3. Any idea how we can make it so in more countries?

  29. Most people couldn’t give two shits about liberty. This is not a surprise. There will be the choice between candidate A, or Candidate B. Both establishment picks, both fighting over how best to enslave individuals.

    1. Who gives a shit about liberty when you have bread and circuses?

      1. Our circuses really suck. PETA and HSUS are out to outlaw the circuses that don’t suck.

  30. OT Tech talk:

    Microsoft is trying to reinvent Windows before it dries up.

    For more than a decade, Windows-powered desktops and laptops were the bedrock of human interaction with personal computers.

    A couple billion smartphone sales later, Microsoft’s PC-bound operating system plays second fiddle to a Google- or Apple-powered handheld device or tablet in many people’s daily lives.

    Just three of every 20 devices sold this year will run Microsoft’s Windows, researcher Gartner estimated in a forecast of PC, tablet and smartphone sales.

    And to think, back in the mid 90s, I was having knock-down-dragout arguments with people in my field over how government didn’t need to interfere with Microsoft, because they won’t always be dominant. These were professionals in the field who used arguments eerily similar to the ones used in favor of net neutrality and healthcare.

    If there’s one thing I’ve learned after 30 years in the industry… no one ever learns.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/bu…..indows-10/

    1. I’ve been playing with Windows 10. In a word: meh.

      It’s more tablet-y than ever – and therefore more schizophrenic. (Example: there are now two nearly-complete versions of Control Panel.) What they don’t get and Apple does is that phones and desktops are different devices. You can share certain code and a small part of the UI but at the end of the day if you make the desktop to tablet-y you’re just going to piss off a lot of your users.

  31. If 50% of registered voters in swing states are Republican, and 20% of those Republicans support Donald Trump? Let’s see (.80 * .50) + .50 = .90.

    That means 90% of the voters in swing states know everything they need to know about Donald Trump–and they want somebody else.

    Hillary Clinton would trounce him.

    1. Hillary won’t trounce anyone. Assuming she even makes it to the general, her negatives are huge, there’s a mountain of material for negative ads, she’s a terrible campaigner, and her health is questionable. If she wins, it’ll be a squeaker.

      1. Do the math, Papaya!

        You’ve go the anti-Trump 90%–who already know what they need to know and don’t want Trump–vs. the 50% of Democrats who would vote for Hillary even if she were caught on video sacrificing an innocent black child to Satan + whatever slice of the idiot, drunken swing vote she could get.

        I’ll give you this: Hillary is likely to lose against almost anybody save Trump.

        She could and would beat Trump.

        How much of that anti-Trump 90% is the swing vote? I bet’s almost all of the swing vote is anti-Trump.

        1. Hillary would win 320 electoral votes if she ran against Donald Trump. It would be a massacre.

  32. Ivana is accusing ex-husband Donald Trump of marital rape. I’m really trying not to like the guy but it just isn’t working. He looks better and better every day.

      1. Well, now I’ve gotta vote for him. Reason, the National Review, and the Daily Beast all hate him like poison. Who could ask for a better endorsement than that?

      2. I have a hard time buyin’ that Trump took time out of his busy schedule fucking starlets, back then, to bother to rape Ivana.

        I also have a hard time buyin’ that media crazy Ivana managed to keep this a secret for decades despite all her other tell all stuff she’s done in the media, too.

        Color me skeptical.

        1. No offense, Ken, but did you actually even read the article?

          1. Of course not!

            1. Well, not that I have an opinion either way, but according to the article:

              A.) Ivana alleges that it wasn’t a “I need you now and can’t control myself” rape but “You fucking bitch, who’s boss now!” rape

              B.) These allegations date from 1992.

            2. I’ve read it now.

              “During a deposition given by me in connection with my matrimonial case, I stated that my husband had raped me,” the Ivana Trump statement said. “[O]n one occasion during 1989, Mr. Trump and I had marital relations in which he behaved very differently toward me than he had during our marriage. As a woman, I felt violated, as the love and tenderness, which he normally exhibited towards me, was absent. I referred to this as a ‘rape,’ but I do not want my words to be interpreted in a literal or criminal sense.”

              So, it seems like everyone agrees there wasn’t any rape.

              They’ve written a story about a “rape” that the victim says didn’t happen as if it’s somehow hypocritical of Donald Trump to accuse other people of being rapists?

              Color me unimpressed.

              This is like playing Mayhem records backwards to listen for satanic messages–when the recording is full of satanic messages played forwards! There are a million great reasons to bag on Donald Trump.

              They should pick any one of them. I didn’t think it was possible to make Donald Trump look good, but accusing him of a rape his ex-wife says didn’t happen is one excellent way to accomplish that.

              1. So, it seems like everyone agrees there wasn’t any rape.

                Perhaps, which would mean that Ivana is guilty of perjury.

                1. Maybe. Seems like she used plenty of weasel words…

                  It was more than seven years ago, so the statue of limitations is probably in effect, and if we prosecuted every person who purgers themselves in divorce cases, the justice system would be flooded with perjury cases.

                  It’s a common thing to do–like getting a speeding ticket.

                  They settled, and no charges were filed. It’s not even case closed. No case was ever opened.

                2. I wish there was some crime Jackie Fuchs could be charged with.

                3. “”[O]n one occasion during 1989, Mr. Trump and I had marital relations in which he behaved very differently toward me than he had during our marriage. As a woman, I felt violated, as the love and tenderness, which he normally exhibited towards me, was absent. I referred to this as a ‘rape,’ but I do not want my words to be interpreted in a literal or criminal sense.””

                  So the alleged victim says he didn’t rape her.

                  Okay.

                  1. “I do not want my words to be interpreted in a literal or criminal sense.”””

                    “rape”, just not the literal, criminal kind.

                    What’s the other kind again?

                    1. It’s called Canola.
                      Canucks are ashamed of their fondness for rape.

                    2. The kind that students at colleges and universities are guilty of.

              2. Color me unimpressed. Crayola should add that color to their next version.

                1. Along with “Flesh” and “Indian Red”.

                  1. I remember all the rich kids got the set of 64 with my favorite colors like “Copper” and “Silver”. All I got was the set of 16. And it was probably some knock-off brand.

                    1. The 64 set had a crayon sharpener in the front.

                      The colors would get complicated like “burnt sienna”.

                      …which is kinda brownish.

          2. “”It’s obviously false,” Donald Trump said of the accusation in 1993, according to Newsday. “It’s incorrect and done by a guy without much talent?He is a guy that is an unattractive guy who is a vindictive and jealous person.”

            …who also probably has a small penis, and bad breath.

            Donald Trump. Put-Down. Master.

    1. The unfavorable 58% contains many people who are slime bags themselves. It’s one thing to have a high unfavorable rating and another to have a high “I’m shrill and have no ability to control my emotions when he’s around” rating. Usually it takes the teams more time to fully demagogue their opponent, but Trump does the work for the Dems himself. Puts him in the front immediately.

      BTW, this is why you marry Hillary. No one would believe accusations of marital rape.

  33. I suppose it’s possible, but then, women in the process of divorcing rich guys aren’t the most reliable sources of information….

    1. Behind every successful man is a woman. Being raped.

      1. A lot of progressives would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

        1. I just don’t add /sarc and I’ll be golden.

  34. I’m thinking some 70s or 80s era NFL wide reciever will come out of nowhere, run a deep post pattern and catch a hail mary to win the GOP nomination. The ultimate black Swann event.

    1. Didn’t Swann seek the GOP nomination for Penna. governor some while back and lost?

      1. Yes. He lost because, “I don’t like his smile,” said Darin Robinson, 32, of Levittown

        1. Oh my God, that’s an actual quote.

          The American electorate is the dumbest collection of retards outside of the electorate of every other Western country.

          1. Is there any evidence that voters in other Western countries aren’t morons?

              1. Reread my post again.

                Oops.

                Is there any evidence that I am not a moron?

    2. OJ Simpson played running back, not wide receiver.

        1. Yeah, I know. And your link is broken.

          1. Bam!

            1. Fumble

  35. To recap….it is a bad thing to be the clear front runner. It is much better to be at 2%, like Rand Paul, than at 26% like DT. These poll numbers are absolutely meaningless and should not be trusted. One of the reasons why DT can’t win is because the poll clearly shows his unfavourable rating is off the charts. This unfavourable rating despite being from the same meaningless poll is gold. It is 100% correct. His favourable rating from the same poll is completely unreliable however and means nothing.

    Reason, please…you hate Trump. We get it. But, write something worthy of your name, please.

    Last point…he slammed McCain, got sort of hammered, although bounced back, and SHOT UP in the polls from veterans!

    1. His unfavorable rating is a very relevant statistic because as people drop out of the race, the question is where their supporters are going to go. When you have someone with a 58% unfavorability rating, that means they aren’t going to pick up the supporters of anyone else when they drop out of the race. He has no way of going any higher than he already is.

      1. True, but you can’t say the unfavourable stat has any meaning if you first say the whole poll has no meaning.

        If the poll is meaningless then so is the unfavourable part of it.

        But, even if the whole poll is real, which it isn’t, and the unfavourable part is real, we don’t know what it means because it includes establishment Repubs, and Dems. What counts is what is his unfavourable rating amongst declared Republican primary voters.

      2. You don’t have to like a guy to believe he’s the person you’d most want to be standing between you and incoming enemy forces. Many Americans would welcome a jerk in the White House for a change if they think it means the White House will be picking on someone other than them for a change. It doesn’t mean that.

    1. If Troops wanna act like cops, Hire this lady to protest.

      1. You Know Who Else didn’t want soldiers acting like cops?

    2. If only Ed Miliband had…oh wait of course not.

      Also this is another traditional English liberty being suppressed, how wonderful. I suppose the Tories are returning to their roots…

      You Know Who Else unleashed soldiers on the streets of London?

      1. William III with his Dutch Blue Guards?

    3. NYC has been doing this for more than a decade.

  36. What is so laughably obvious in Trump’s current polls is how unhappy many Republicans are with their party. Trump is an alternative to the same old social conservative crap that is the trademark of a political party in decline.

  37. Google pay 97$ per hour my last pay check was $8500 working 1o hours a week online. My younger brother friend has been averaging 12k for months now and he works about 22 hours a week. I cant believe how easy it was once I tried it out.
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  38. Bullshit. The RINOs don’t have a winner and they’re not going to produce one. Reason is holding out for an R-Party LGBT candidate, because that’s where they get their funding.

  39. Bullshit. The RINOs don’t have a winner and they’re not going to produce one. Reason is holding out for an R-Party LGBT candidate, because that’s where they get their funding.

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  41. Donald Trump said that John McCain talks about helping veterans but doesn’t actually help them.

    The Left and Right immediately held hands and accused him of denigrating veterans, in general, which is not what he did. He specifically mentioned one veteran, John McCain, questioning whether the Senator truly has helped those who have served in the military or if he just talks the talk.

    The real issue, here, is not what Trump said about McCain but the willingness of demagogues to distort those they are trying to destroy and the greatly misinformed and short attention spans of people who suspend reason in order to believe what they want to believe.

  42. The reason Trump is so popular is because Americans just want to stand at the right end of the pit bull for a change.

  43. The Donald is in all likelihood Hillary’s most devious (and brilliant) trump card.

  44. Yeah, right Slade. And 4 years from now you’ll be telling us he doesn’t have a chance at being. reelected. Do they actually pay you to come up with this stuff?

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