Microsoft Predicts Who Will Win Midterm Elections



Who will win the midterm elections? Microsoft this week launched a new service that predicts the winner of each Senate, House, and gubernatorial seat over which politicians are fighting.

Called "Bing Elections," the tool anticipates that the Republican Party will without question remain in control of the House and they will likely the take control over the Senate. There's only 10 percent confidence in Democrats' ability to keep the Senate, and in that case, they'd only have two more seats than their counterparts.

Microsoft suggests that Democratic senatorial candidates will easily win or retain seats in twelve states: Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Virginia, North Carolina, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Hawaii.

The New Republic recently gravely announced, "The fate of the Senate could come down to Alaska."


Well, if the number crunchers at Microsoft are right, the fate of the Senate is in Republicans' hands. GOP candidate Dan Sullivan has a 81 percent chance of winning.

Likewise, in nail-biter swing states Colorado and Iowa, Team Red players have 10 percent leads over their opponents. In spite of former President Bill Clinton's cheerleading in Arkansas, the GOP candidate has an 83 percent chance of winning.

Bing Corporate Vice President Derrick Connell explains why his company got into the game of election forecasting:

According to a recent survey conducted on behalf of Bing, 50 percent of people said that they don't feel confident about voting this November with 70 percent stating they don't feel informed on all the issues. …

Our goal with Bing Elections and the personalized Voter Guide is to arm voters so they can make decisions based on the most comprehensive and best information available.   Whether it's the senate race at the national level or a proposition affecting your city, we're hoping to give you the confidence to make the most out of your vote.

This isn't Microsoft's first foray into guessing games. The company also operates the Microsoft  Prediction Lab, a crowdsourced "sort of online betting parlor for everything from political races to the U.S. military presence overseas" and apolitical things like NFL games. 

H/T: The Hill's Jesse Byrnes. 

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  1. http://www.kcrg.com/subject/ne…..l-20141015

    12-point shift by independents make Iowa U.S. Senate race ‘too close to call’

    Thank god that Microsoft tells me the local news outlet is full of shit 😉

    1. All of Reich’s predictions look solid to me. I hope the Republicans follow them.


    2. The comments are so salty. Just delicious, really.

      1. Agh, horrible

    3. The histrionics of people like Reich if the Republicans win is going to be priceless.

      1. But the number of people who believe that shit is depressing.

    4. Did anyone else get the “Obamacare is working!” petition pop up they want visitors to sign in order to give to Republicans? That is the best thing I’ve seen in weeks. Petitions are for desperate people who are afraid of losing power.

      1. Petitions are for desperate people who are afraid of losing power.

        I think you might need to make an exception that rule for a petition to hold a referendum.

        1. Or to put a candidate on a ballot.

          Petitions with no legal significance (especially online ones) are indeed as lap83 describes, though.

    5. Holy shit, I have never read Kos comments before. That is an ocean of stupid there. Talk about useful idiots….

    6. Continuing education cuts

      Uhh, don’t you kinda have to actually start doing something to continue doing that thing.

      Why do so many people continue to believe this bullshit when it is so patently not true?

      1. Because it’s all social signalling and no one really cares if it’s true.

  2. The New Republic recently gravely announced, “The fate of the Senate could come down to Alaska.”


  3. NYC Reasonoid Meet-Up!

    Important Update – New Date

    When: Wednesday, 10/22/14, 6:00PM
    Where: Rattle N Hum
    14 E 33rd St

  4. I’m so looking forward to this election. Whichever way it comes out, the butthurt will be EPIC!

    Either the Repubs throw away their second election in a row, in significant part because the Establishment has so enthusiastically repressed the TP/libertarian insurgencies or

    The Proggy Dems lose control of the Senate right when a tidal wave of bad news is washing over the Prez and they desperately need the Senate to keep covering his ass.

    1. I’m half hoping that the Republicans will pull out the I-word after having successfully suppressed it during the campaign, then follow it up with holding a triumph for Emperor Biden, who then bestows vast estates upon them in return for their prior help and future fealty. the farce.will be complete.

      1. “God love ya, db!”

        1. Anyone who believes Uncle Joe isn’t the reeal brains behind the operation hasn’t been paying attention.

          1. Uncle Joe. Isn’t that what they used to call Stalin?

            1. There’s Uncle Joe, he’s movin’ kinda slow.

      2. I tell you the same thing I tell everyone; Obama himself has said losing the Senate will make his last two years in office unbearable.

        You tell me how knowing that you can possibly not want the Republicans to take the Senate. Jesus, even if you hate the Republicans how much harm or good can they really do just controlling the Congress and not the White House as well?

        Moreover, suppose the Republicans really did flex their muscles and managed to get a few things done over Obama’s objection. That would if nothing else return some of the governing power away from the Presidency and back to the Congress where it belongs. That in itself would be a very good thing regardless of anything else.

        1. I tell you the same thing I tell everyone; Obama himself has said losing the Senate will make his last two years in office unbearable.

          Good! Maybe the bastard will resign.

          1. We can always dream.

        2. I hope the Rs take the senate if for no other reason than I want to see shit shaken up and incumbents losing. I also think that what the nation really needs is a long string of one term presidents.

          1. I don’t think one or two term Presidents matter. The bigger problem is that Congress has completely walked away from its oversight duties. What we need to see more than anything is for both sides of Congress to start taking the institution and the duties of it seriously rather than seeing their role as to defend the President, when he is a member of their party, no matter what.

            1. You are right on what congress should be doing. I’m probably overselling the one term president thing. I just can’t fathom why people keep reelecting these assholes.

        3. John, I’d prefer that the Repubs take the Senate. I don’t know where you get the idea that I want the Dems to keep the Senate.

          This whole primitive partisan tribalism if-you’re-not-with-us-you’re-against-us thing just doesn’t have any traction with me.

          What I’m not kidding myself about, is that Republican control of the Senate is going to move the needle on 90% of what I care about. The only advantage I see to it is on appointments. Which isn’t nothing, but in the big picture doesn’t make this THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION EVAR, either.

          1. When you consider that we are a single swing vote on the Supreme Court away from both Citizens United and McDonald being overturned, the 2016 election is pretty damned important. I don’t think those two decisions will survive four more years of a Democratic Presidency. No one likes to hear that but its true.

            As far as this election, is importance will reveal itself in time. It could be an important election if it results in the Democrats finally turning on Obama and also on the Progs who have taken over the party.

            Democrats didn’t all used to be nuts. And there is no reason why they have to remain nuts. But they will never change and kick people like Pelosi and Reid out of the leadership of the party until electoral reality forces them to do so.

            Everyone assumes the Democrats can never change and would never benefit from being in the wilderness. And I think that is bunk. They changed in the 1980s and managed to have some sane politicians. They could change again. And if they don’t change, there will be no way to ever get the Republicans to change because will forever remain the least worst of the bad options.

            1. Remember that post from a few minutes ago where I said:

              John, I’d prefer that the Repubs take the Senate.

              I don’t know why you’re still trying to convince me to give up on what you seem to believe is my undying support for the Dems and Harry Reid, and start pulling for the Repubs.

              Look at this way: I loathe and despise the Dem establishment, while I merely have contempt for the Repub establishment.

              Does that work for you?

              1. I don’t like either one of them either. But we are stuck with them. We have a winner take all system. So unless you could create four parties, creating a third party on either side will just put one side in total control.

                The Republican establishment sucks. But it is a bit better know than it was in 2008. Getting kicked out of office made them improve. If McCain had won and the Republicans had retaken the Congress, you wouldn’t have people like Cruz and Paul in office today. You would have even worse crap weasel Republicans.

                The Democrats could benefit from the same experience. Then maybe in 2018, the Democrats could come back and have some more sane politicians. And slowly both sides would get a bit better.

                It is a hard and long road. But it is the only alternative.

          2. The only advantage I see to it is on appointments.

            Will that lead to more Alitos and Robertses or more Scalias and Thomases?

            Because I dont see more than a marginal advantage if the former.

            As much criticism as Scalia and Thomas (rightfully) receive around here, they are miles better than the other 7 justices.

            1. So their votes in Citizens United and McDonald are not significant? You don’t think those cases being overturned would be a big deal?

              I do but then I think there are important rights other than government sanctioned ass sex. Reason disagrees.

              1. Roberts’s vote in NFIB v. Sibelius was pretty damned significant. Doubt another Scalia (or Janice Rodgers Brown, or my favorite candidate I’d like on the Court, Alex Kozinski) would have ruled similarly.

                Of course, maybe it would just have needed a slightly different horse’s head to get them to rule that way too…

                1. It was Gray Ghost. But it is not like the people a President Hillary would put on the court wouldn’t have voted that way too and vote to overturn McDonald and Citizens United.

                  It sound histrionic but you tell me what other than those two decisions are standing between now and things getting much much worse than they are? And each of them were decided by one vote. It is pretty scary when you think about it.

  5. So, after her big loss, will Wendy Davis be an MSNBC host, or be a waitress in a skeevy Austin bar?

    1. Well the skeevy Austin bar would give her a larger audience, so…

      1. I don’t think your accounting for all the coma patients who can’t turn the channel. Of course it’s impossible to gauge their state of mind but they are MSNBCs target demographic.

    2. 1-2 months off, restir the pot by “authoring” a few “provocative” ghost-written columns at salon, then hop over to msnbc or cnn for $25K /week. Not a bad payoff.

    3. Have you heard her talk though? She has a voice fit for silent films.

      1. Are you kidding, this is the same MSNBC employs a person with a speech impediment: Melissa Harris-Perry. Although I’m nearly certain she is retarded so I guess it’s defensible.

        1. They are just showing their full commitment to affirmative action. People can’t help being retarded any more than they can help what race or sex they are. Retarded people deserve to be equally represented in the media, academia and in the board room.

          1. If only they weren’t over-represented in government. /zing

        2. She has more than a speech impediment.
          She has a mind impediment.
          As in learning how to mind one’s own business, and not interfere in the lives of others.

    4. She will be dating or married to some wealthy older prog doing the speaking and charity circuit. Wendy will never be waiting tables. She knows how to use her looks too well for that to happen.

  6. Remember exactly a year ago when progressive pundits (and writers at Reason) were convinced that the government shutdown was a catastrophe that would hurt the Republican Party and possibly jeopardize their House majority?

    That was funny.

    1. Its only because the corporate Koch-controlled media has covered up for them, Mr. Man!

    2. I especially like the fact that one of the main reasons folks like Cruz pushed the shutdown was to delay the employer mandate for Obamacare……..which Obama ended up doing anyway.

    3. To me at least that really was Reason’s all time low point. The Republicans don’t own the White House or for now at least the Senate. What exactly does Reason want them to do? It seems to me the Republicans have two choices. They can either roll over and fund the government in a way that Obama will agree or they can go militant and shut the government down until Obama agrees to do it their way. We can argue all day which choice is better but I don’t see any other options available.

      Generally, the Republicans have rolled over and given Obama what he wants. And Reason kills them for it and points to them doing so as further evidence the parties are exactly the same and the Republicans are no better than the worst Democrat.

      That would be fine except for the one time the Republicans stood up to Obama and shut the government down trying to force him to compromise, Reason had a fainting fit about how stupid and foolish they were. You tell me why I should take anything Reason says about the subject seriously after that.

    4. Welch seriously stated that the shutdown led to the debt ceiling being raised. THIS IS WHAT MATT WELCH ACTUALLY BELIEVES.

      Dear Suderman and Welch: please, on the issue of political strategies, for your own sake STFU. You have strengths and this is not one of them. If you can’t see that the Cruz stand has, for all its clumsy handling, paid for itself many times for the GOP, then you are politically clueless.

    1. In defense of shreek, the one thing I’ve managed to translate from his belligerent ramblings is that he has consistently said a dem in office with a republican legislature is his wet dream scenario.

  7. And if the Republicans lose, it will be the “we weren’t moderate (or conservative) enough! mantra”. Need more fill-in-the-blank bashing.

    If the Dems lose, it will be “we didn’t articulate our vision of progressive enlightenment enough!” Need more class warfare!

    1. And whichever team wins – likely by a whisper thin margin – it’ll be: “Yes! We have a mandate from on high for all our most batshit ideas!”

    2. If the Dems lose it “Evul corporations and Koch brothers stole the election by unfairly influencing the mindless voters!”

    3. And if the Republicans lose, it will be the “we weren’t moderate (or conservative) enough! mantra”. Need more fill-in-the-blank bashing.

      That is exactly what will happen. Why people like RC think that the Republicans losing won’t cause them to just want to roll over more to the media and Democrats is beyond me.

      1. I wouldn’t be surprised.

        But why I should support an organization that responds to failure with epic stupidity is still a mystery.

        Is this like that National Lampoon cover “Buy this magazine or the dog gets it”? Vote for our candidates, or we will become even an even worse party?

        1. You support them because no one ever said life owed you a good option. Moreover, you support them in hopes that kicking the worse option out of power for a while will convince them to not be so worse.

          The flip side of punishing the Republicans for being lousy is rewarding the Democrats for being even worse. Imagine if everyone had taken your attitude the last two elections and the Democrats still owned 60 votes in the Senate and the a huge majority in the House. Can you imagine how much more crazy they would be? If the Democrats come out of the last 8 years sill in power, there will be no stopping them. Why would they stop? The last 8 years will just prove to them that they can never lose no matter how bad they get.

          1. The flip side of punishing the Republicans for being lousy is rewarding the Democrats for being even worse.

            But, the flipside of your flipside is also true, John: the more we reward the Repub establishment for being cronytastic Dem Lite Big Gov enablers, the more that’s what they are going to be.

            Its a dilemma.

            1. Its only a dilemma if you think one election is going to solve it. It will take a while. And the GOP establishment while still bad is better than it was. The only reason its better is because it lost.

              1. The only reason its better is because it lost.

                So, logically, the more it loses the better it will be!!!!

                I think you just argued against yourself.

                1. John does that a lot.

                  1. It only seems that way cytoxic because you fail to grasp even the simplest point that doesn’t fit your narrative.

                2. No I didn’t Rob. Now you make the Democrats better by losing. That is the point you have to fix both parties. I didn’t argue against myself at all.

                  1. We haven’t even fixed the (federal) GOP yet.

          2. You support them because John loves some Team Red partisan hackery.

            1. Maybe or maybe you are just a fucking moron who is too bull headed and pig ignorant to admit the obvious. The latter seems to be a safe bet.

  8. Just got an email from the LP asking me to renew my membership and, if not, to send a personal email to Wes Benedict explaining why.

    So many possibilities…

    1. I think I might join the Libertarian party for the single purpose of next year getting the invitation to email We Bennedict, whoever he is, explaining why I am not renewing. I envy your opportunity Kristen.

      1. The crazy thing is, it’s been about 7 years since I’ve been a member. They’re as bad as the ACLU in keeping contact information way beyond its expiration.

        Dude, it’s been 7 years. Get over it. Try to recruit someone new.

        1. And who thinks telling you “hey you need to explain to us why you are doing this and have a good reason” is the way to get you back?

          It is a miracle the Libertarian party gets any votes let alone the five percent or whatever they do.

          1. As another former member, the organization has nothing to do with their candidates getting my votes.

            The party is incompetent and corrupt. They still run the best candidates.

            1. Like the clown in Virginia who wanted the government to gps track everyone’s car in the name of fair taxation?

              1. Not. A. Libertarian.

    2. “I was recently informed by people on the internet that the Koch brothers are paying me off. Despite supporting the Libertarian Party for years I have yet to see a single check from your organization and will be a freelancing libertarian from now on.”

  9. Our goal with Bing Elections and the personalized Voter Guide is to arm voters so they can make decisions based on the most comprehensive and best information available.

    The most comprehensive and best information available shows you that your vote doesn’t matter, so you should decide to do something other than vote.

    1. Yup, I’m going to go make money.

      1. The politicians won’t care. They could win with a single vote and would happily act like they had a 70% mandate. The NYC mayoral election had the lowest turnout in the history of the city. That didn’t stop the fascist asshole who won from proclaiming that it was the beginning of a national progressive mandate.

        1. I think that’s the point.

    2. No it doesn’t.

      1. Cool story, bro.

        1. You don’t even know how to meme properly.

  10. I have been hearing rumors that if the R’s keep the house and take the senate that Boehner plans on making nice with Obumbles.

    That would hopefully cause such an upset with the party’s base that all of the old guard republicans will be run out on a rail.

    1. To the extent he does it will be over amnesty and making sure illegals can vote Democrat. It won’t be so good for Republicans but Reason will love it.

    2. Wow, the list of reasons to cheer for a Republican victory just keeps getting . . . shorter.

      1. Why? I thought amnesty was second only to gay marriage on the Reason hit list?

        1. It may give the Reason staff tingles up their leg, but not me.

          Seriously, though, if a unified Republican Congress greases the wheels for amnesty, where a divided Congress would never be able to pass such a thing, that’s a big reason to not support the Repubs this year, in my book.

          1. If they do that, the Republican Party is done and the country along with it. It really would split the party and ensure complete and total Democratic rule.

            I am not saying they won’t do it. I don’t know. It is not a sure thing by any means. They have every reason to lie and get their chamber of commerce cronies to pony up more campaign money. If they do do it, they are dooming the party and the country along with it.

          2. Wow, finally, a sold Reason to vote GOP.

            1. If we can just ass fuck the working class enough and import enough Central Americans libertopia will be ours. Nothing says freedom like importing the political culture of Latin America.

  11. I wasn’t planning on voting this year, but every time I hear a Braley attack ad against Ernst, I think, “Wow, she sounds really good! Maybe I should vote for her!”

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