Global Temperature Trend Update - January 2014

Taylor Precision

Every month University of Alabama in Huntsville climatologists John Christy and Roy Spencer report the latest global temperature trends from satellite data. Below are the newest data updated through January 2014:

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade

January temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.29 C (about 0.52 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.

Northern Hemisphere: +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.

Southern Hemisphere: +0.20 C (about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.

Tropics: -0.03 C (about 0.05 degrees Fahrenheit) below 30-year average for January.

(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)

Interestingly, the UAH folks add that…

…Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place on Earth in January was the upper peninsula of Michigan near Iron River, where temperatures were as much as 3.86 C (about 6.95 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms.

Go here to see the monthly satellite data from 1978 to now.

Comments

[waffles]

It's cold where it matters.

[playa manhattan]

It's cold where it matters doesn't matter.

[Almanian!]

In your heart?

#libertarian

[Pro Libertate]

Oh, it matters here. I don't need my tan interrupted by pesky cool fronts.

[carol]

It has been cold as crap in Tampa this year. Our winter should be over by now but it doesn't feel like it today.

[Pro Libertate]

It was in the 80s last weekend.

[carol]

Yeah, but how long did it last? We've had a couple of nice days here and there with long stretches of cold in between. Of course I consider the seventies to be cool, the sixties cold and the fifties freezing. That might have something to do with it.

[prolefeed]

It's been right around freezing here in Austin the last few days, a good 15 degrees below the average low for the month, and it snowed in Dallas.

Yes, weather isn't climate, but this is hardly buttressing the argument that Teh Climate Is Catastrophically Heating Up TM.

[Malkavian]

the coldest place on Earth in January was the upper peninsula of Michigan near Iron River

Tell me about it. It was 5C in my office at one point. Where is the promised global warming? Or are we not global enough for Mother Gaia?

[PD Scott]

Maybe you can import it from Detroit? I understand there's an abundance of hot air there.

[Malkavian]

Well, local joke goes Detroit people keep themselves warm with gunfire.

[Root Boy]

I thought they just burned down the abandoned houses to make a nice campfire

[Malkavian]

That too, but they have patrols against that sort of thing now.

[Root Boy]

Meaning private citizens, not the local constabulary, correct?

[Malkavian]

Yes, I think the Devil's Night thing is watched over by volunteers.

[Clich? Bandit]

Stop using Centigrade and maybe god will show you some F love.

[Death Rock and Skull]

Yeah, it would sound a little warmer if he wasn't using commie measurements.

[Malkavian]

Those commie measurements make engineering life possible. At least I don't have to worry about the size of King's feet.

[Death Rock and Skull]

Only the most mundane engineering. Like messing with shit.

[Malkavian]

Hey, I like messing with shit! That's my job, actually.

[Death Rock and Skull]

People like me need people like you. So that people like me can do something other than calculate BODs.

[Malkavian]

BODs?

[Death Rock and Skull]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B.....gen_demand

It sounded like you work in shit, as an engineer or paraengineer or operator.

[CE]

Yes, but temperature is something you experience. Breaking the normal temperature range into a 100-degree scale lends precision to weather reports.

[Clich? Bandit]

Technically, the division provided by Fahrenheit is more precise per degree than centigrade. There are 100 whole elements between water freezing and water boiling (at sea level pressures) in C while in F there are 180.

And as for the King's Foot comment:
Your silly human desire to count on your fingers does not equate to a superior system in all or even most circumstances. Binary, Octal, and Hex are ALL superior in computer science and the case for Duodecimal in daily life and higher mathematics is strong. And if you want to be historical you can stick with Sexigesimal.

See here!

the best kind of correct

[Malkavian]

All real sciency stuff is done in Kelvins, but for heat flow purposes when looking at temperature differences Celsius and Kelvin are the same. Sure, Fahrenheit people have Rankine, but who' heard of that?

And while I dig binary systems, the rest are just silly derivatives - nobody cares how many registers computer memory has except computer people. Now, natural log/e based system - that's useful for kinetics studies.

[Clich? Bandit]

+ Tau

[Malkavian]

Never! Metric FTW!

[mr simple]

Malory: Who uses Metric?
Lana: Every single country on the planet except for us, Liberia and Burma!
Archer: Really - cause you never think of those two as having their shit together.

[anon]

That last episode made me breathe a sigh of relief; one of the best episodes of the entire series so far.

[mr simple]

Yes, I've been unsure of what they're doing. I wonder if this season will end up being a dream.

[Mad Scientist]

Out along the edges
Always where I burn to be
The further on the edge
The hotter the intensity

[prolefeed]

Every episode has been worth watching IMO, and some have been fucking hilarious.

[Death Rock and Skull]

Canada and England are still mixed. Beers in England come in pints. Navigation worldwide uses imperial based nautical miles.

[Almanian!]

I'm in fucking mid-Michigan and it's colder than Pellston (normally the coldest spot in the state).

Fuck you, Mother Nature.

OTOH - spring and summer will be all the mroe glorious this year. Right?

[The DerpRider]

In the thumb here. I plan on getting a patio heater to be able to enjoy the summer evenings this year.

[anon]

On the bright side, Hell has officially frozen over.

[Malkavian]

Actually, Michigan is not bad. We have 70 mph speed limit and no DUI checkpoints (that I've seen anyway), we have great local beer and Grand Rapids rocks in general (HopCat FTW).

Things that are fucked up can't get any worse, so future really can't help it but get better, and as far as Detroit city government goes, I think hipsters who move there just ignore it. Not like it can do much.

[anon]

Actually, Michigan is not bad.\

Obviously living there causes brain damage.

[Malkavian]

Well, I like it better than Illinois, at any rate.

[SweatingGin]

DUI checkpoints are illegal in MI, yea. They've occasionally popped out seat belt checkpoints, though. Just on surface streets, that I saw.

[SweatingGin]

DUI checkpoints are illegal in MI, yea. They've occasionally popped out seat belt checkpoints, though. Just on surface streets, that I saw.

[SweatingGin]

DUI checkpoints are illegal in MI, yea. They've occasionally popped out seat belt checkpoints, though. Just on surface streets, that I saw.

[Zeb]

Where is the promised global warming?

I know it's a hilarious joke and everything, but do we really want to sound as dumb as the people who think that every hurricane is proof of global warming?

[Malkavian]

I just wanted to get warm again.. But OK, here' a disclaimer:

Weather patterns are highly variable, and no single event can be used to conclusively argue for or against climate change.

[Fist of Etiquette]

Someone bottom line this for me. When is Kansas going to be beachfront property and when am I going to fry like an egg on an August sidewalk?

[Episiarch]

When Lex Luthor figures out how to slide Oklahoma and Texas into the sea. He's a little stumped because even though everyone has their little faults, his isn't in Kansas. Just some dog name Toto. Or a band. I can't remember.

[Snark Plissken]

Goddammit, now I hate you even more than ever.

[Episiarch]

You snooze...YOU LOSE. The early bird gets the worm. Early to be and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and...I'll shut up now.

[tarran]

I'm shooting to become mayor of Otisville.

[Episiarch]

Do you know why the number two hundred is so vitally descriptive to both you and me? It's your weight and my I.Q.

[Snark Plissken]

There's tons of potential beachfront property on the eastern side of the San Andreas fault.

[playa manhattan]

1. Buy Real Estate
2. Wait 15 Million Years
3. ????
4. PROFIT!!!

[Fist of Etiquette]

My mother lives in Hackensack.

[Paul.]

I know.

[Snark Plissken]

*looks at WartyClock*

Not any more.

[Sevo]

In "Basin and Range", McPhee mentions the spreading of that area and the possib-lity of the extension of the Sea of Cortez to northern Nevada, but pm's got the time-scale.

[playa manhattan]

Nice (32 year old) reference. You a fan of geology?

[Sevo]

One more f'ing time; are the squirrels awake?

[Sevo]

OK, for the 4th time.
Yeah, I'm a fan of McPhee, so you're going to get some geology. Makes trips over the Sierra interesting.
Forgot how long that book's been on the shelf...

[playa manhattan]

Just got it for my Kindle. Does it cover the Long Valley Caldera? I'm going up to Mammoth in a couple of weeks, and I'm planning on checking out some of the hot springs and fumaroles in the area...

[Sevo]

I don't remember that. Just did a search; you might get "Rising From the Plains" (not quite as old); he writes about how Jackson Hole was likely formed.

[Mad Scientist]

You've already missed the boat (ha ha!) on that one. The North American Cretaceous seaway, which provided all kinds of beachfront property in eastern Kansas, dried up 100,000,000 years ago.

[SugarFree]

The North American Cretaceous seaway, which provided all kinds of beachfront property in eastern Kansas, dried up 100,000,000 years ago.

Cool story, bro.

[Mad Scientist]

I think it is pretty cool. That seaway is the reason you can find ichthyosaur, crocodile, and ammonite fossils from Alberta to Texas, despite being smack in the middle of the North American craton. Sea levels were a LOT higher during the Cretaceous, and there were no pesky humans around to cause it.

[Paul.]

Jesus put those there.

[SugarFree]

Exactly. A mature Earth is the only thing that makes sense.

[Fist of Etiquette]

Pics or it didn't happen.

[Root Boy]

The most interesting 40 maps somebody posted the other day (from the WP) has a map of the world once the ice caps melt.

No Kansas beaches, but looks like Austin will get one.

[Homple]

I like the maps that show glaciation covering a large part of the USA. But then CO2 from Fred Flintstone's barbecue made it all go away and Gaia had a sad.

I'll bet there are maps depicting population density after the Rapture. If not, I'll make some because there are suckers who'll take this kind of map as seriously as the warmies take the post-melt beachfront map.

[gaijin]

30 years...that's sure a long time.

[Irish]

OT: Apparently it's looking possible that Scotland would secede from the UK.

I don't understand why England would even care. If I'm England, I lose 6 million people who are poorer than most Brits and tend to vote for nitwit socialists.

England would soldier on without much change and might actually be improved by the loss of a relatively poor section of the country. Scotland would become an economic socialist backwater with massive poverty and crippling debt.

If the Scots want to hang themselves, let them.

[Sevo]

..."tend to vote for nitwit socialists."

If you're a Brit politico, that could mean you'd have to look for a job!

[Warty]

FREE CORNWALL

[Swiss Servator, Befehl!]

Free Cornwall? Cool, I will take two please.

[John C. Randolph]

Me too, and a channel island!

-jcr

[Clich? Bandit]

Only slightly more humorous than Wales. I guess Cornwall has King Arthur but Wales has Boadicea, the Iceni, and the Silures...for what its worth. DOWN WITH ROME!

As an aside Boadicea was one bad bitch...almost expelled the Romans and makes William Wallace look like a cub scout.

[Episiarch]

The limeys killed a lot of people and fought some serious wars to control all of that island. They're not going to let go so easily. What next, the Welsh secede?

[Irish]

So they lose 6 million socialists and 3 million sheep fuckers? And all 9 million of them are poorer than the English and are therefore a drain on the public funds?

Downside, where are you? I can't find you, downside!

[Episiarch]

Since when do imperialists and border-expansionists ever care about how poor their acquisitions are? Since when do the limey politicians want to lose socialists (should I even agree with your collective assessment of all Scots as socialists, though I will agree with the sheep fucker part)?

The loss of Scotland would be the death knell of the United Kingdom. Any reduction in the size and power of the UK is a reduction in the power of its politicians. Yes, in general, they care. You might as well ask why the US won't let any states go? Same reason.

[Irish]

I just find both of those arguments irrational. I understand that people have a bizarre obsession with maintaining territory, but the quality of life would be much higher for people if you had a smaller and better run country than if you have a large and unsustainable country.

If the United States broke up into a few different countries, the standard of living for large numbers of people would probably increase due to the lose of federal bureaucracy and the ability to solve problems on a more local level.

I understand that a lot of people don't see it that way. I just can't figure out why people would rather be poorer with large territory than rich with a smaller area to govern.

[Episiarch]

Because the people making those decisions aren't rational actors on the ground, but rather politicians with completely perverse and distorted incentives. The PM of the UK is actually a pretty powerful person. Break up the UK and the PM of England is a much less powerful person, as are all the MPs. They don't care about smaller countries being more efficient or whatever; they are about power. Their power. And they're the ones in control of the whole process.

[Irish]

Because the people making those decisions aren't rational actors on the ground, but rather politicians with completely perverse and distorted incentives.

Yes, but it isn't just the politicians who throw a fit over the idea of secession and independence. Look at any progressive article on the idea of a state seceding. They basically whine for multiple pages, make bizarre arguments that secession is magically racist due to the Confederacy, and never bother explaining why secession is actually wrong.

It's a sort of petulant nationalism. They simultaneously bemoan imperialism and argue in favor self-determination while arguing that the federal government should behave imperialistically towards the states and no state should be allowed self-determination.

[Episiarch]

Statism craves an always bigger state. Always. That's all the explanation you need to understand "progressives" or any other flavor of statist.

[sarcasmic]

Progressives and other statists honestly feel that the government is the people.

That nonsense about a government of, by, and for the people? They believe it.

That's why they are openly hostile to liberty and individual rights. They see that as a threat to arbitrary government power (which it is) and then see it as a threat to themselves.

I remember back in my younger days, I too felt as they do.

It's us, the government, against the corporations. There's a fixed pie of wealth, so when the rich get richer the poor get poorer. Profit is theft. We need government (us) to reign in wealth accumulation by the rich (them) because great wealth hurts the poor.

Yes, I understand how they feel.

Too bad they can't think.

[Irish]

But that's still fucking stupid.

Okay, the government is the people. Then if the government of Texas said "We're seceding" then the people of Texas have spoken.

What they're actually saying is that the only government that 'is the people' is the federal government. This is clearly idiotic since the feds are actually the most removed from the day to day lives of the people and therefore represent them far less than do their state legislatures.

[sarcasmic]

What they're actually saying is that the only government that 'is the people' is the federal government.

Why do you think they're always pushing for federal laws and federal standards to override the states?

This is clearly idiotic...

Yes. That is true. But if all you care about is fairness, then how fair is it that one state has one standard and another state has another standard? That's not fair! Everything must be uniform! Everything must be federal or it's not fair! Not fair! Not fair!

[prolefeed]

Yes, but it isn't just the politicians who throw a fit over the idea of secession and independence. Look at any progressive article on the idea of a state seceding.

Such statists are upset because the ability to secede is an enormous and effective check and balance on the growth of the Total State they want.

[sarcasmic]

Power is not rational.

[Paul.]

Since when do imperialists and border-expansionists ever care about how poor their acquisitions are?

Fun fact, Seattle was trying desperately for years to annex north Highline and White Center. Because that's got to be a huge net positive for tax revenue vs. services.

[Episiarch]

Exactly my point. I remember when Nickels was talking again about acquiring White Center, and everyone was just like "what the fuck?!?" But that's because his incentive was to grow the city and therefore his power as mayor. That's it.

[John]

You see this at every level. My father was the mayor of a small town for a few years. The town was this tiny town in the middle of nowhere. What it offered to the people who lived there was being in the middle of nowhere and having a really slow pace. But the town counsel was always coming up with crack pot schemes to "grow the town" and my father was always asking them "why do you want to grow the town? people like it as it is". And in the end it was always because they just wanted cash and the power of being on the council of a bigger town. The interests of the people who lived there didn't mean shit. It was about power.

[Michael S. Langston]

I agree government with this behavior helps to cause The March to End Liberty?, but their not irrational, nor are the incentives perverse as these are the exact same incentives which drives people in private enterprise.

The problem is - a large swath of the country, quite possibly a majority, seems to not know government has these incentives at all.

Sure - from either side's proponents they'll tell you the other side is evil and wrong, but as we've seen with consistent contradictory "ideals" on behalf of both parties, each side's primary belief is that government can only produce evil when the other side is in charge.

Contrasted to the truth which is rational actors have rational incentives to grow, because not doing so usually means death.

& since these incentives are obvious - the only way liberty continues to exist is eternal vigilance against government growth.

& the US setup a pretty good system to help maximize possibilities of being vigilant - mainly by separating power into different, competing groups.

Even with that though it appears our experiment at liberty is failing, as every one of those groups/entities has apparently given up on that duty, including SCOTUS, both houses, whistleblowers, educators, journalists, and in the end, voters.

So there's that.

[Zeb]

The loss of Scotland would be the death knell of the United Kingdom.

Maybe the Scots will see it as the loss of England Wales and Northern Ireland.

[jesse.in.mb]

Jesus, Irish, what will England do if they lose their vital sheep fucking infrastructure. Do you know how restless sheep get when they aren't getting a good deep dicking twice a day?

No, you don't because it's being taken care of.

[Almanian!]

Just keep my wool shirts and tartan scarves coming.

And the whisky.

And the bagpipes. Although my next set will be made in the US of by-God A. Gibson in Ohio - great bagpipes.

What were we talking about?

[Paul.]

What were we talking about?

Kilts.

[anon]

So they lose 6 million socialists

To politicians, that is the downside.

[Zeb]

So they lose 6 million socialists and 3 million sheep fuckers?

That's offensive. The Scots fuck just as many sheep as the Welsh.

[Snark Plissken]

What next, the Welsh secede?

An Englishman, Welshman and West Indian are in hospital, waiting for their wives to give birth. There is quite a bit of pacing up and down when the nurse comes out and happily announces that they are all fathers of bouncing baby boys.

"There's just one problem," she says. "Because they were all born at the same time, we got the tags mixed up and we don't know which baby belongs to whom. Would you, as their fathers, mind coming to identify them?" The men agree and walk into the delivery room and look at the babies.

Immediately the Englishman stoops down and picks up the black baby. "Yes, this is definitely my baby," he says confidently.
"Um, excuse me," says the West Indian, "but I think it's fairly obvious that this is my son."
The Englishman pulls him aside and says, "I see where you're coming from, mate, but one of these babies is Welsh and I'm not prepared to take the risk."

[Paul.]

Never happen. Canada's been hoping and praying for Quebec's secession for decades and yet... nothing.

[Irish]

The Scots were a sovereign nation until 1707 and the current Scots still romanticize the period when they weren't beholden to England.

It's strange that they romanticize a period before their Britain-led economic renaissance, but there is a bizarre tendency for socialists like those in modern Scotland to romanticize poverty and cry bitter tears over the oppression of success.

[Episiarch]

For you.

[Paul.]

Fun fact, the traditional Scottish kilt is neither traditional, nor Scottish.

[Mad Scientist]

Impossible. Kilts must be Scottish because they're damn fine, and several reliable sources inform me, "If it's not Scottish it's crap."

[jesse.in.mb]

Isn't a lot of highland culture made up just so people would have something not British to rally around?

[Snark Plissken]

Next you'll be talking shit about the Bay City Rollers.

[Zeb]

The loss of Scotland would be the death knell of the United Kingdom.

Scotland is part of Britain.

[Death Rock and Skull]

They're the lowest of the low.

[mr simple]

But then they wouldn't be able to claim ownership of men's Wimbledon champion since 1936.

[Sevo]

Ron,
Wasn't the Kyoto goal to keep the temperature rise below 2*C/century?

[R C Dean]

And we now have a run rate that would put us at 1.4C/century.

Kyoto worked! Time to double down with a carbon tax!

Right, Ron?

[Sevo]

No reason that "hockey stick" can't point the other way.

[Paul.]

Like anyone would ever...EVER suggest global cooling.

[anon]

Shouldn't we all be dead from overpopulation by now anyways?

I consider these "bonus years."

[R C Dean]

Is anyone trying to figure out why this looks like a step function, with increases in temp being preceded by El Ninos?

The first real move up was preceded by the named El Nino. Another possible/weaker upward move was preceded by the (unnamed) 2010 El Nino.

[SugarFree]

This is SCIENCE, RCD. They don't have time for your so-called MATH!

[sarcasmic]

Yeah! They've got a consensus! There's no need for silly things like the scientific method when you've got consensus! Besides, they're like really smart and stuff! Tony said so! Consensus!

[anon]

If Libertarians could come to a CONSENSUS about anything, imagine how much imaginary power we'd have!

[Snark Plissken]

Minarchists, to me, to me!

*waves giant monocle*

[Root Boy]

Also don't tell them that AGW theory says the tropics will warm faster than the NH or SH.

[DesigNate]

You all are just a bunch of anti-science no nothings. Experts in this field all agree that humans are the leading cause of global climate change.

/Tony (or every prog ever)

[Paul.]

Hide the incline!

[Death Rock and Skull]

At some point I have to start calling bullshit on the recorded numbers themselves.

All hail Global Warming.

[Francisco d Anconia]

Where's my hockey stick? I was promised a hockey stick from President Gore and I'm entitled to it.

[John]

If this winter is any indication, we might get one. It will just be bent the other way.

[OldMexican]

Global composite temp.: +0.29 C (about 0.52 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January.

We live in an averaged world now. It's fantastic!

[CE]

From the chart: the normal temperature variation for the past 35 years is +/- 0.5 degrees C. Last year we were + 0.3 degrees C above the mean, or, once again, within the normal year-to-year variation.

Yet I'm a "denier" for denying something that doesn't exist.

[Juice]

I know the satellite record starts in 1978 just because that's when the satellites went up, but that time period also happens to be conveniently very cold in comparison to the previous 100 years or so. Any upward trend starting then will be exaggerated.

[enviro414]

See how this fits with the rest of reported average global temperatures and discover the drivers at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com/